Nathan Iyer @NiyerClimate Twitter profile

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

3 months

You don't have to guess! And when you add it up, you get emissions similar to nuclear, or about 40-80x less pollution natural gas for the same amount of energy production. But gotta give this troll account credit, it is not the color green.

Wall Street Silver

@WallStreetSilv

3 months

Guess how much concrete and metal is required for just one wind tower? “green energy” is not green.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Weird, it looks like the US is building out manufacturing capacity rapidly.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

It seems pretty clear that once EVs hit TCO parity (you are here), oil importing nations will have every incentive to shift to EVs as quickly as possible, in part due to trade balance issues.

John Raymond Hanger 

@johnrhanger

5 months

Wow! Ethiopia is jumping to EVs & will ban importing ICE. Why? It can't afford to spend annually $5 billion on oil imports! EVs are already ~10% of Ethiopia's auto FLEET! Ethiopia Shows Us Just How Fast The Transition To Electric Mobility Can Happen In Africa - CleanTechnica

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

Ok for the great tariff debate, I'm going to toss some heaters into the discussion: 1. China has done more than any country to REDUCE nickel and cobalt use in the EV transition by leading the LFP revolution:

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

8 months

The fundamental problem with hydrogen is that the politics are great but the physics is not

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

Here we go nerds, 100 H2 tweets. Views my own, massive disclaimer, setting the timer for 2 hours so this is from the dome. I will waffle between piping hot, interesting, and so mindboggling esoteric that only the deepest analysts could possibly find it useful. Let's go. 1

Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

I could write a hundred tweets about hydrogen, the core audience would be like three dozen people, just waiting for an excuse and about 2 hours

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

8 months

That's why we have life cycle assessments. Wind is 10-20g CO2/kWh. Gas is 400-500g Co2/kWh Coal is 800-1000g CO2/kWh "Oh no, we need to use materials" is the most annoying critique of wind/solar/nuclear/geothermal.

John Lee Pettimore

@JohnLeePettim13

8 months

Concrete is the 3rd largest CO2 emitter, accounting for 4 to 8% of the world’s CO2. A typical wind turbine uses 566.89 tons of concrete. The production of 1 m³ of concrete requires 2,775 MJ of energy. Most of this energy comes from oil. 89 barrels per turbine base. #GreenEnergy

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

I know I'm going to get heat from this one, but alas its twitter. The grid right now is a bunch of vertical hotdogs, which isn't optimal, but the sun goes East to West so the areas with more sun can't share with less sun, and the windy hotdog can't share with the others.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Fascinating analysis by my colleague @ashna__aggarwal . The top 12 states that could see the most investment from the IRA are red states with currently carbon-heavy economies. We are heading towards a collision of culture and cash.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

If we get this hydrogen thing right we will solve a huge chunk of power sector decarb. Y'all might not see it, but we have a windfall that could solve a major market issue. I'm gonna walk through why the H2 PTC is hot. Not even gonna try to be relatable here, wonk level max.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

Two types of policy pushes: - The tiniest incremental policy tweak, 12 years, takes 5 PhDs, every stakeholder and their mother - Insane idea, obliterates the problem, full gas, no breaks, everyone is plastered writing it, buzzerbeater yeet into the NDAA

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

$100/kWh is the threshold that rings the death toll of ICE vehicles in the developing world and fossil fuel importers globally. This is historic, and I celebrate the engineers, govts and scientists and true f'n believers that made it happen.

Intercalation Station

@IntercalationSt

1 year

April's Battery Component Price Report is out, cell prices on that low low: trending past the $100/kWh threshold 😍 Reach out for BCPR subscription details (report + raw daily time-series data):

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Every year the EPA releases a national inventory tracking all the climate pollutants produced in the US. There are some interesting nuggets in the 860 page (oh yea) report that you probably won't read, but I did, b/c I'm crazy. Let's dig in!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 months

Views my own But low key the single biggest thing Harris/Walz could do on climate is nothing. Like just let Biden era climate policies cook. Lots of productive stuff are possible, but "not taking a hatchet to policies on the books" is probably the biggest.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Transportation is the bad guy in this story and nullified all other progress. "Light duty trucks" increased by 370 MMT and bigger trucks increased by 80 MMT. Light trucks (think pickups, SUVs, vans) got special lighter rules than passenger cars and went hog wild. @mateosfo

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 months

Engagement at an all time high, couldn’t be more excited for life with her!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

The hydrogen PTC is worth a lot of money. Tens, if not hundreds of billions. The choices Treasury makes will shape technology, energy markets, and global standards. Treasury received over 191 comments - I read most of them, and wanted to highlight some excellent ones.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Ugh ok quick thread about "additionality" and why it matters for hydrogen and the exceptions. Wonk level high, impact level high, hot takes only. You have been warned.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

@LimitingThe @alex_oeh Haha fair enough - for the record your videos were essential for some meetings on batteries that ultimately influenced the IRA which is a pretty big deal. For example, your deep dive supply chain series is one of the reasons metal sulfates were included in the refining tax credit

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

3 months

One opinion I have as a climate hawk is that we need to be very clear-eyed about true value of natural gas, which does play a loadbearing role in modern society. Because only then can we replace it without bringing the house down.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

I’m loving handbook on electricity markets. Any other good resources on grid economics? Hoping for something extremely technical and wonky. The more FERC the better. Whatcha got energy Twitter

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Happy IRA year folks. The story is simple enough: Dems got one big shot. They were constrained to spending money by "The Rules". Solving climate change requires decarbonizing ~20 unique sectors, each with diff techs and economics. Congress threw $$ at pretty much all of them.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

Ok so lets take this to a logical conclusion - LFP is at $46/kWh, Na-ion at scale is 20-30% less (you can use the same infrastructure). Add back 50% for E&C/BoP/siting/interconnection, and we're at $50/kWh overnight (but should be sub 1 yr dev). 20-40 year lifetime.

David Fishman

@pretentiouswhat

5 months

Missed this story from last week - China's first utility-scale (10 MWh) sodium-ion battery storage plant connected to the grid in Guangxi, built by China Southern Grid. "With these batteries, storage cost can be reduced by 20% to 30%" the company said.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

5. The idea that China is winning due to "cheap labor" ignores that these are extremely high throughput, highly automated industries. That's not the primary reason its cheap - also their debt model, the "machines that build the machines", and this:

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

6 months

I think that the core unit of "clean electricity" should be grams CO2 per kWh. I made a quick n dirty cheat sheet, open to feedback. You can check how your grid is doing!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

18 days

We mostly solved the ozone hole via policy. Just switch refrigerants, its pretty straightforward (sorta) Solving climate change requires 15-20 of these types of substitutions, and each one is pretty distinct, but doable. Gotta want it tho, gonna take some fight.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

10 months

So you know how electric mobility is gonna beat the sh*t out of combustion engines in every metric? Yea this is what the US supply chain for batteries looked like before Congress intervened. What do you notice on the “under development” column?

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

@LimitingThe @alex_oeh Not a ton of accessible deep battery supply chain info out there tbh, your stuff was clearer and better than the DOE reports lol

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

I have an amazing idea for a tax credit. Its called "reverse 45Q" (aka 45Ó). Instead of providing money for capturing and burying carbon, we instead create a reverse tax credit every time someone extracts and burns carbon. Wonder if anyone has thought about this before...

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

I’m heating up one of the most complicated hydrogen tax credit threads I can come up with. It’s gonna be straight up incomprehensible to any of y’all and you’re gonna love it.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

10 months

Huge kudos to DOE and Treasury for releasing the 45X guidance today! Gamechanger for the adv manufacturing economy in the US! Two things to note: 1. Tech neutral - broad inclusion to avoid artificial path dependencies 2. Great guardrails - strong limits to fraud/waste.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Hydrogen is literally just decarbonized natural gas

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

@mateosfo The big success story (reversing the transportation failure) was the electricity sector. Coal plummeted from 50% of our mix down to 20%. Gas rose from 10% to 37% and wind/solar rose from 0.1% to 12.5% to replace this coal. Demand hasn't really grown since ~2005!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

22 days

So strange that every time we guess what methane emissions are, we get number 3x lower than when we actually go measure it. I wonder what is going on??

Dr. Sandra Steingraber 🏳️‍🌈

@ssteingraber1

23 days

NEW STUDY: Methane emissions from U.S. oil/gas operations are 3X higher than presumed. In the Permian Basin, fully 10% of the methane extracted goes straight into the atmosphere.😳 US oil and gas emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

. @RogerPielkeJr wrote a piece about wind. He makes three points: 1. Wind power is low density 2. Wind capacity factors are limited 3. Wind power ages quickly I think there are real critiques of wind, but these aren't the right ones!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

10 months

Admin is goated on energy policy. They put steroids in their munchies this morning, this clean mfg guidance is rock solid. Let er rip folks

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

First, over the past 30 years, the US has made... literally zero progress on emissions. But, the population has gotten larger and the country has gotten richer. As a result, the emissions per dollar and per person are lower than in 1990. So that's something!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

More wind and solar means less need for gas energy, but potentially more need for gas capacity (esp in the context of growing load). And it's important to know the difference!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

The stupid thing about climate change denial is how basic the actual physics is. Folks learned that CO2 traps heat in 1856 by filling jars full of carbon dioxide and they got hotter in the sun. Then we put over a trillion tons into the sky and now stuff is hotter.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

9 months

There are three pillars to "bringing your own beer": Incrementality: you bring your own beer Deliverability: you BYOB TO the party Time matching: you BYOB to the party when the party is happening It's pretty straightforward for beer, and for hydrogen.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

If it takes 1 year to set up the program (e.g. each state needed to do a specific application), Then you start with the application, and devs need 1-2 years to build (grid stuff is hard rn), that's a 3 year process before the chargers are built.

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼

@Noahpinion

4 months

Buttigieg absolutely flails here. The real question -- which Brennan should have asked -- is why private companies are managing to build so many charging stations while the U.S. government hasn't managed to build any.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

The DOE has proposed hamburger grids that could move power across the country, unlocking billions in value. They call this hamburger style grid the "Macrogrid", presumably named after the McDonalds Big Mac.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Transmission Impossible 4: Climate Crisis @JigarShahDC @RobGramlichDC @benserrurier @christiantfong @mendell_russell

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

If you take your marginal corn field and turn it into solar, you'll make at least 5x more money per acre. If things get droughty, landowners should really consider this option. The corn people hate solar because it's better than corn, but sometimes cash is king, not corn.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Preparing for a conference on hydrogen, so going to mix it up - quick thread about batteries and the US industrial strategy to date! The US Government ultimately wants "energy security" for its batteries - autos, military, grid resilience, electronics; its a critical tech!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Yo ppl who write these hydrogen roadmaps. Instead of trying to say "lets do one bajillion hydrogens", what about a report that says "here's the least amount of hydrogen we could do, and still get to zero emissions". That would be neat!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

@mateosfo Animal burps, aka "enteric fermentation", beat out the entire nat gas system in terms of methane emissions, I didn't know that! Burps / trash / poop emits more methane than the oil and gas industry according to the EPA. However, O&G methane leaks could be very underreported...

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Hot (uneducated) take: the fact that trawlers hate offshore wind (due to the anchors) is probably a pretty good sign. This could create pockets of ocean that can't be obliterated by nets, offering sanctuaries for sea floor habitats.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

2. The US is heading towards battery independence thanks to the IRA/IIJA. Below is the North American supply chain with 900 GWh/yr demand in 2030. Bit gaps are in graphite (anode) + electrolyte : low margin, low complexity industries.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

3 months

Climate change is bad folks. We should try to stop it. We have a really nice temperature band going here. If we are smart and use the state and markets well, we can pretty much fully solve it at breakeven prices and additional growth in about 40 years.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

@leahstokes Someone needs to investigate what happened in August of 2022

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

@MLiebreich The H2 ladder is a hugely important concept - the idea that there are places where hydrogen is useful and necessary, and places where it is likely an extraordinary waste of energy. Knowing the difference is crucial. But even the top stuff will be capex intensive. 5

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

10 months

The industrial sectors that remain after the IRA dust settles:

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

You can still do stuff like "cow pasture/range/feed/horses/goats/ethanol" in the land in between. Which is most of US land! It's pretty dang close to the lowest direct use of land per MW, especially with larger turbines!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Why you should be a solar Luddite. Inspired by @doctorow and the new anthology Terraform!

Terraform: Watch/Worlds/Burn

www.amazon.com

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

My final note before I go on vacation. "Hydrogen using curtailed renewables" and "running electrolyzers 24/7" are very silly extremes. 1. Curtailment is super rare, you can't run a project off it. Variable projects will likely use the entire output of wind/solar plants.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

18 days

Unironically share the belief we are leaving so much human potential on the table, kids have incredible minds and we do them no favors downplaying their capacity

Jeremy Wayne Tate

@JeremyTate41

19 days

By age 14 John Quincy Adams had - Mastered five languages - An astonishing command of European History - A job serving as private secretary to the American ambassador in St. Petersburg. Teenage boys are capable of infinitely more than we think. They are > video games

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

Three steps for a hit tweet on Energy Twitter: 1. Agency acronym: especially FERC / LPO 2. The name of an ISO/RTO 3. Another random acronym that only appears in grad level grid engineering textbooks. Explain nothing.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

4. The US needs to compete, and the political (and xenophobic) opposition to Chinese companies building factories on American soil is self defeating. Even Trump agrees:

Trump invites Chinese to build US auto plants - Asia Times

This article is published here as a preview of the week’s Global Risk-Reward Monitor. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on March 18 invited

asiatimes.com

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

18 days

Being anti-carbon taxes is wrong. Not a panacea, but when you explore the world of climate policy, you find these very specific (and significant) niches where carbon prices are the best policy, especially in the mid-late transition. If you wanna decarb, its v helpful tool!

Noah Kaufman

@noahqk

20 days

Carbon taxes are so polarized that a lot of climate people don’t seem to recognize how depressing this is

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

6 months

We all gotta stop sleeping on legumes

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

The Rotterdam hydrogen summit has been fascinating so far. Hundreds of thousands of square feet of booths, weird pipes, business models, and national strategies. As @gnievchenko mentioned, the lack of offtakers definitely is clear, but that is primarily a policy variable imo.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

10 months

I do think that the climate community should ramp up our work on reliability, which means investing in power system expertise. I think the "blackouts/ sky is falling" crowd is gaining momentum and has enough seeds of truth where its worth tackling head on. 1/2

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Digging into the sectoral data, you can see that electricity emissions have plummeted, transportation emissions have increased, and the rest is mostly flat. We have experienced deindustrialization which has pulled down industry emissions too.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

6 months

Ok industry decarb. You're thinking steel, cement, refineries, and glass. But what about solving the ozone hole? Industry emissions have been flat, but that has obscured huge changes. Since 1990, chems/metals has collapsed, and it was replaced 1:1 by refrigerants!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

From time to time, its nice to get a sense of scale to understand how different policies balance out. The admin is not messing around!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

You know when you're concerned about an existential crisis, but then another, faster existential crisis pops up. And then they start merging into some transmogified megacrisis and you start laughing bc wtf make it stop

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

29 days

"Just a city boy Born and raised in South Detroit" aka canada this is madness

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 months

This is actually wild. 3% would be very high. 8% is bonkers. And some folks wanna make it into hydrogen and call it clean by using some national average. Talking about shining a turd!

Logan Mitchell PhD 🇺🇸

@loganemitchell

2 months

New study from @EnvDefenseFund found 7.8% of natural gas extracted from the ground in the Uinta Basin is lost to leakage, highest leakage rate in the USA. Study 👉

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

24 days

we gotta stop finding this stuff, how is this possible

Russell Gold

@russellgold

25 days

Here comes the next big boom in Texas. There's lithium under the bayous of northeast Texas, possible world-class deposits. My latest for @TexasMonthly

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

"The neoliberals taught us three things: governments are incompetent, markets are inefficient, and the commons are tragic. And yet... " - @70sBachchan

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Hey folks, I'm going to do a thread on this later but wanted to share that our team just finished a major launch that I'm extremely proud of on state-level decarbonization modeling. We built and calibrated economy-wide macro-energy system models for 48 states!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

3. The tariffs enable more investments for things like the battery supply chain grants, LPO mfg loans, 48C mfg loans, and private capital crowd in. US investment isn't over yet. After CATL reduced battery prices by 50% in ONE YEAR, yea maybe folks should be worried.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

The IRA is going to be a slow burn, 3-4 years of building capacity, and then an unprecedented boom. We're going to see some meh near-term deployment and we cannot forget the elephant (GOP) in the room. But keep the faith and do the work, and we will exceed your wildest dreams

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

6. The idea that the "administration doesn't care about climate change" b/c they put tariffs on Chinese overcapacity is ridiculous, you would have to be completely out of the loop to believe this. Spicy, but wrong on the numbers by a lot.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

My family has been fighting for clean energy my entire life, and it's the honor of a lifetime to stand in front of the White House as the president signed historic climate legislation that we helped draft. The day before my 25th birthday, the clean energy golden age begins. LFG

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

5 months

In conclusion - this is a complex policy issue that plays a small role in the context of a much larger strategy. To judge the entire strategy based on a small piece (e.g. tariffs) misses the broader story. Its worth understanding, even if you may not agree.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

@mateosfo The Senate actually signed the US up to a treaty that would reduce this by around 85% by 2035. Last Congress absolutely balled out on climate, but this wasn't widely reported. Some think this global treaty alone will reduce warming by up to 0.5C! …

US Senate approves HFC treaty

Chemical industry and environmentalists back Kigali pact

cen.acs.org

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

CCL is lowkey the only sophisticated climate game in town with a grassroots funnel in literally hundreds of communities. No lie I got my start with them, and so did my mum. Credit where credit is due, they put in work

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Ok big idea hear me out: You know how everyone says you need to "overbuild renewables" to achieve high penetrations? What if instead we built a bunch of renewables for dispatchable loads (H2, DAC, syn-fuel, thermal heat) that just shut off when the grid gets tight?

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

6 months

Major climate win today!

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

6 months

Huge permitting reform news: The Bureau of Land Management is giving geothermal energy exploration a categorical exclusion from environmental review under NEPA. If you care about clean energy abundance, this is a massive win.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

4 months

Low key there are certain Congressional staffers who are the equivalent of a 10x engineer but for policy

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

9 months

EVs sales are clearly slowing down if you go through time backwards. This is bad for Biden, who goes through time forwards.

Justin Gerdes

@JustinGerdes

9 months

. @ENERGY : US plug-in electric vehicle sales were 9.1% of all light-duty vehicle sales in 2023, up from 6.8% in 2022:

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

Really funny to me that this guy nailed the entire hydrogen debate in a personal blog 5 months before the IRA even passed and it remains the gold standard: This was pre-Princeton study, pre-EU final rules, some companies are really just ahead

What should be considered ‘green hydrogen’?

With green hydrogen potentially receiving a PTC in the BBB bill or a future energy-only bill, one of the big open questions is what is…

medium.com

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

A single solar panel can do as much physical work as person daily. Just one. This would blow the minds of our ancestors! Solar can unlock unfathomable prosperity and dynamism if we, like the Luddites, have the vision to imagine a world where we all get a slice of that power.

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 month

I'm going to make one last point on the trillion dollar question of how to do electricity emissions accounting. The difference between each system is not a measurement, but a prioritization function between two competing outcomes: Electrification and grid emissions reductions

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

6 months

Right now the big problem in climate is big lines to get access to big lines

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

10 months

The story of the battery belt and the resurgence in US mfg is tied to this credit, and the guidance clarifies and accelerates the work. Also, the inclusion of thermal batteries is a historic moment for the work of decarbonizing industrial heat. More to come soon!

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

2 years

What are industries that could emerge with insane amounts (think unlimited) of fairly cheap ($40-50/MWh) power? I'm thinking - synthetic molecules from the atmosphere, compute, direct air carbon capture (terraforming), high purity recycling, water purification. What else?

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Nathan Iyer

@NiyerClimate

1 year

I think it’s possible to reduce emissions by 50% without anyone noticing

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