So in the past few days, Russia:
1. waiving usual standards to recruit for combat in Ukraine
2. seeking to recruit thousands of Syrian mercenaries
3. asking China for help.
Each one spells trouble. Together, they spell desperation.
Russia is asking China for “military equipment and aid” according to
@washingtonpost
@Dimi
from
@FinancialTimes
reports that there are “some indications that China may be preparing to help”
Could be munitions like Kalibr cruise missiles, Grad/Smerch rockets and artillery shells
Shoigu’s round of calls with US, UK, France and Turkey, claiming Ukraine planning to use a ‘dirty bomb’ is v worrying. We’ve seen nothing like this intense military diplomacy since war began. Its substance is even more worrying. /1
Note to Kissinger and others. Geopolitics isn't about bloodless abstractions of "space". "Giving up territory" also means "giving up people". We already know how they'll be treated.
#UkraineRussiaWar
Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.
#Russia
warned of “unprecedented” consequences if West helped
#Ukraine
against invasion. West did so and suffered no such effects.
Now, Russia warns of “serious” consequences if West seizures Central Bank assets. Let’s draw the proper conclusions.
Of course, Ukraine has neither ability nor need to use dirty bomb. It’s Russia that’s losing. Nor will anyone believe Shoigu anyway –esp Ben Wallace, who was lied to during his pre-invasion visit to Moscow./2
How can the West respond to murder of
#Navalny
? In two ways, neither hard:
1. To US: sort it out on Capitol Hill and pass a new aid bill for
#Ukraine
2. To EU: sort it out in Brussels and seize $300bn in frozen Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine.
The real question is what the West does if Russia uses nuclear weapons. Shoigu’s calls gave Western govts an opportunity to reiterate warnings about the consequences. We must hope they took it. /end
Shoigu also warned of ‘uncontrolled escalation’. It’s Russia that is escalating: attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, apparent attacks on Western connectivity infrastructure, and mining of Novaya Kakhovka dam. And playing with nuclear fire in Zaporizhzhiya for months. /3
#Russian
#oil
&
#gas
revenues collapsed in July, according to
@ru_minfin
failing of
#gas
income is especially impressive, because of the energy war with the
#EU
. Export duty fell 1/3: -32.9% YoY (64.9% YoY in June). We will see the reverse in o&g revenues during next month.
Ukrainian and Russian social media mobs and trolls: they are all at it today attacking
@amnesty
investigations. This is called war propaganda, disinformation, misinformation. This wont dent our impartiality and wont change the facts.
I worry there is too much motivated reasoning in dismissing possible Russian nuclear use. We don’t want it to happen, and/or we don’t see the point, therefore it won’t. But Russia faces logic of dwindling choices as it loses. Escalation of all kinds more likely. /5
So hard to see these calls as anything other than Shoigu either doubling down on Putin’s bluffs, or preparing way for Russian nuclear use. Yes, nuclear (ie fission). A dirty bomb wd breach nuclear taboo but not achieve significant effects. /4
@olga_chyzh
1. 'oligarchs' aren't the only mechanism
2. these sanctions are unprecedented and will create unprecedented strains and stresses on all sorts of interests
3. when political scientists say something won't happen, 15% of the time it does (Tetlock)
“We finished up with the 🇷🇺professional army, and now it’s time to defeat unprofessional” - Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny, a Commander-in-Chief of the Armed forces of Ukraine.
Since February we have heard much about
#Russia
’s “red lines”.
I believe this bad metaphor hinders clear strategic thinking. Red lines are red herrings. Here’s why:
This is so smart. Russia has long phoned parents of dead Ukrainian soldiers to torment them. Now Ukraine will phone parents of captured Russian soldiers to tell them they're safe.
Ukraine opening a hotline so that Russian parents can find out about the whereabouts of their sons.
Ukrainian soldiers asking captured teenage conscripts for their parents’ phone numbers.
A Ukrainian citizen pulling up to a Russian tank and offering to tow it back to Russia.
This is the headline from a January article by
@scharap
, an expert with
@RANDCorporation
. Last week
@nytimes
published another "just make Chamberlain work" piece by him. Maybe some should ask "experts" to re-evaluate what they said last time before printing another "analysis"?
Lt-Col Bohdan Krotevych, chief of staff, 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov, called on
@IISS_org
. Many fascinating insights. Here’s one:
#Ukraine
avoids targeting Russian commanders who perform badly. To paraphrase Napoleon: never kill an enemy who is prone to making mistakes.
Poll of Russian public opinion on war in Ukraine, by group of independent sociologists:
Since start of war, support up from 59% to 64%, opposition down from 22% to 9%.
Those most opposed: under 34 and greater users of online media. /1
This is indeed a revealing linguistic detail. Lavrov says that Central & E European states became "unowned" after dissolution of Warsaw Pact. Not sovereign, independent or free, but "unowned".
In Rus: "НАТО сейчас – это чисто геополитический проект по освоению территории, которая казалась «бесхозной» после исчезновения Варшавского договора и после распада Советского Союза." It means🇷🇺considers itself being inherited "owner"of not only area of frm USSR b/all EastEurope.
Путин сказал, что в НАТО обещали не двигаться на восток, но «надули».
Таких обещаний Запад не давал ни М.С.Горбачеву, ни Б.Н.Ельцину. Я это знаю из своих личных бесед с ними.
This. No evidence whatever that Russia has abandoned its maximalist goals. They’ve always believed they can beat West in contest of resolve —as they have repeatedly in past 10+ years. Any ‘compromise’ will at best be prelude to further assault.
@meduzaproject
says it very clearly: "Kremlin officials are skeptical that Western nations can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on. Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. (3/8)
👇👇👇
Scholars of Germany: so how did Hitler keep elites loyal in 1944-45 when clearly losing war and bringing disaster on country (apart from Stauffenberg plot, of course). You know why I’m asking.
Good reminder here that Voltaire used the terms "Ukraine" and "Ukrainians" several times, including (in 1731) that "Ukraine has always aspired to be free".
This is pretty remarkable. EU companies still providing hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment to major
#Russian
Arctic LNG project despite sanctions.
What does Labour govt mean for Ukraine? Good things.
Labour manifesto calls for:
1. Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression;
2. Seizure and repurposing of frozen Russian state assets.
New Attorney General is Richard Hermer. This matters because... /1
Watch this. It was expected that Belarus wd send forces into Ukraine to cut off supply lines from Poland at start of war. That dog didn’t bark. But Putin now desperate and will twist Luka more than ever.
Our sources report:
#Lukashenko
agreed to deploy 120K soldiers 🇷🇺 during November-February. 🇧🇾 undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse
So UK Treasury waived its own sanction on head of murderous Russian paramilitary group to enable him to sue leading open-source investigator
@EliotHiggins
for libel in a UK court. This is an outrage./1
Russia’s main self-legitimation is defeat of Nazi Germany. Now it is behaving like Nazis in name of denazification. Total moral degeneration of an entire system. Must be resisted by all available means.
Belarusian authorities have decided to expel all the Western journalists. Reuters, BBC, AP, Agence France-Presse, Radio Free Europe, Deutsche Welle, ARD, RFi. This morning their correspondents and photographers have been stripped of accreditation and have to leave the country
Struck by this contrast:
-
#Belarus
2020: much of the country rose up in sustained, peaceful protest vs brutal regime after rigged election:
-
#Russia
2022: almost no protests, and none sustained, vs brutal invasion, even after mobilisation begins.
Mobilisation is an act of desperation the Kremlin has done everything until now to avoid. And it is no quick fix. Russia has left it late, and conditions are far less favourable now. /1
More evidence that most Russian elites -- 70%, says
@albats
-- oppose the war but are too afraid to do anything. Good piece on silovik feuds by
@Andrew__Roth
and
@PjotrSauer
#Russia
's Finance Ministry reports that additional spending of 5tn rubles per year was requested by other ministries to deal with
#sanctions
effects (4% of GDP, or a 20% spending increase). Even if not all wishes will be granted, spending will rise drastically in the next years.
In sum: most Russians support the war, want it to continue, but do not want to take part. An interesting tension here. Would propaganda still work if Kremlin ordered a general mobilisation?
Terrific piece by Svetlana Stephenson. Best I've seen on Putin's recent meeting abt the war with hand-picked mothers.
"Putin's Idealization of Death Reflects Russia's Growing Nazification". /1
.
3 larger points:
1. This state terrorism appears carefully planned, not opportunistic
2. Confirms Belarus KGB active in EU. Past evidence of this, but more significant now with many dissidents & exiles abroad
3. If confirmed, use of MIG-29 means MoD directly support repression.
Mad news out of Belarus, where authorities forced a
@Ryanair
flight to land in Minsk over a bomb threat. The seems to be a pretext to arrest a founder of
@nexta_tv
, which was key to organizing protests against Lukashenko. He could face the death penalty!
For the first time since 1944, Russian territory is under occupation. Not clear how long this will last or what Ukraine’s intentions are. But this is an astonishing development.
The guests all seem genuinely emotional and nervous here - not the performative-emotional we’re used to. Seems the hunt for who to blame for the messed up military campaign (the “criminally irresponsible” in the words of a guest) may get underway soon.
(Vid via
@JuliaDavisNews
)
So far Russia has not tried to build even the flimsiest pretext to intervene. No “our historic land” (like Crimea), no “fascist Bandera” types (like Ukraine), no “coloured revolution” (like everywhere)..../1
Backed into a corner as his regime collapses, Lukashenko says he’s considering asking Putin for help, because the popular uprising against him is “a threat not only to Belarus, but to the entire post-Soviet world.” Will Putin respond? Watch this space.
1. Russia broke with parity in this exchange. West got twice as many out as gave up;
2. Putin made this concession after initially seeking parity;
3. Includes Russian activists given punitive exemplary sentences to deter others. They are free voices again;
4. No “red lines” or
65% of Russians would not stop the war if they could. 22% would.
51% not ready to take part in it, 39% are ready (esp. 39-58 year-olds)
71% say they understand the goal, but not all can say what is. Answers vary: destruction of Nazism, fascism; then saving Russia from NATO./2
The brave are not always right.
@ACF_int
errs in depicting sanctions as targeting Russian society.
No, they target Russia’s economy that fuels the war. If you oppose the war, you should deny Russia the means to wage it.
1/5 🧵 I cardinally disagree - with all due respect to Vladimir Kara-Murza and other brave Russian opposition politicians, who regained their freedom yesterday as a result of being exchanged for Russian agents - with calls for sanctions not to affect ordinary Russians. No,
Few surprises as new polling shows shifting Ukrainian attitudes to Russia. Just 2pc now ready to say they view Russia positively. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology
All efforts to wage limited war have failed. Putin increasingly left with choice of full withdrawal or full-scale war. He is moving towards latter. Russia’s external weakness has been laid bare; now its internal strength will be tested. / End
Ukraine’s audacious move shows that quality has a quantity all of its own. And it drives home unpredictability of the war.
Strikingly, Putin downplaying the occupation of Russian territory, not using it to mobilise population. Nor have Russians spontaneously rallied in outrage.
Please correct this
@BBCWorld
@Jaroslav1104
. Simply untrue that “Under international law, countries cannot confiscate those assets from Russia and give them to Ukraine.” Read the copious scholarship. We will be glad to advise.
Ukraine’s original 1993 ask for giving up nuclear weapons: billions of dollars of help, and to treat an attack on it as though it were on the US… Not a million miles from where we are 30 yrs on.
@strobetalbott
The Russia Hand, p. 79.
V interesting interview with
@DmitriTrenin
. Argues that NATO membership for Ukraine poses not a military, but "geopolitical and geocultural", threat to Russia.
Why? It leads to "political and ideological transformation" in all spheres of life. /1
As I finish my book on
#Russia
sanctions, it seems I have been sanctioned by Russia.
Apparently I am a British Russophobe working to create the conditions for Russia’s strategic defeat and international isolation. I am not a Russophobe.
At last. This is a big deal. West has $300bn of Russian Central Bank assets in its financial systems. As U.S. and EU wrangle over new financial support to Ukraine, the obvious thing to do is to give it the aggressor’s funds.
@tashecon
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron: ‘instead of just freezing russia’s confiscated assets, let’s take them and spend them on rebuilding Ukraine’. Such a powerful standpoint should be put in practice.
Absolutely. I'll say it again: ZERO evidence Russia has scaled back its goal of subordinating Ukraine. Senior Russians are restating this openly: Shamanov, now Patrushev. Now beginning to mobilise economy for this long fight too.
How many times Putin & his cronies have to say that their ultimate goal is elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty & identity before western “peacemakers” will finally believe them & stop living in la-la land where giving in parts of 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺 can bring lasting peace?
Putin discussing Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, which he says the West is behind. He looks and sounds not angry, outraged, determined —but hesitant and rattled.
Путин собрал совещание по ситуации в приграничных с Украиной регионах, на котором потребовал от Минобороны «выдавить противника» с российских территорий и заявил о росте числа желающих заключить военные контракты
Он также заявил, что Украина проводит операцию в Курской области
V significant. Bank of China has stopped operations in Russia for fear of latest U.S. secondary sanctions.
U.S. slow to use this unique & fearsome weapon vs Russia, but began last December (EO 14114).
This + 14th EU package = steady sanctions escalation
Российская дочка Bank of China остановила операции с попавшими под санкции банками РФ.
Структура, обеспечивающая расчёты в юанях между Китаем и Россией, выполняет требование США.
Путинисты, как вы там говорите? "Китай - наш друг и партнёр, мы вместе противостоим Америке"?
My latest piece just out.
Some argue that Western and Ukrainian interests differ. A serious argument, but wrong. A compromise peace with Russian gains wd be disastrous for Western interests.
My distilled thoughts on where crisis is leading. Russia's compellence has left it worse off diplomatically. Ball is back in Putin's court. He has 4 options now. War may be the most risky but least unattractive.
Where is the current crisis over Ukraine leading, what choices does Russia now face, and how likely is war? In his latest article,
@Nigelgd1
explains why, despite intense diplomatic efforts, military conflict is looking more likely
There are still some folk who think Russia’s build-up is “just” coercive diplomacy, not a real threat to Ukraine. This is a category error. Coercive diplomacy logically entails the credible threat of military force. Otherwise it’s just an expensive parade.
Regime now struggles to articulate goals and muster means. Harder than ever to believe time on its side. Strategy rests on two hopes. But both will stoke domestic fear and resistance... /2
Until now, Russians could lead apolitical lives and be left alone. Now they must die for their country. Elites can keep families safe from call-up. But they know that any use of nuclear weapons would incur a devastating response. So… /5
First questions on ‘peace plan’ (more available):
1. Wd Russia recognise Ze govt as legitimate and stop referring to ‘illegal overthrow’ of 2014?
2. What credible compliance guarantees can Russia offer, given past violations of agreements and lies before the invasion? 1/2
Russian FM Lavrov says Belarusian is an "artificial" language. Cf. Putin's assertions abt Ukraine. Kremlin wishes to decide whether others have genuine cultures, languages etc.
Key development:
Senior parliamentarians from two dozen countries call for confiscating Russian Central Bank assets and giving them to Ukraine. A wide international coalition at last.
G7 leaders must “dispense with half-measures” and confiscate all $300 bn in Russia’s frozen state assets.
So writes
@MiRo_SPD
(🇩🇪) & 25 other Foreign & European Affairs parliamentary committee chairs & MPs in today’s
@FT
#MakeRussiaPay
Visa ban is also a security measure to stop ‘tourists’ visiting cathedral spires etc. After diplomatic expulsions, Russia needs this sort of cover more than ever. And it now presents a greater threat than ever. Countries at war don’t let adversary citizens wander around. /5
Hermer is well placed to make declared policy of Russian asset seizure and repurposing a real and effective one.
For a compelling legal case for seizure, see:
@iiss_org
Massive crowd of many 1,000s now on Minsk’s Independence Square. People defying Lukashenko and his security forces and turning out despite threats of a crackdown all week. Incredible.
I was in court yesterday for the start of the "Putin's People" libel trial. Here are some reflections:
Thanks to
@PjotrSauer
@MoscowTimes
for the invitation to write.
Elites and masses alike have compelling interest in opposing the only means to continue war. Can this take effective political form, or will regime escalate repression to prevent it, even as it escalates war against Ukraine? And finally… /6
Hermer is a member of Legal Task Force on Accountability for Crimes Committed in Ukraine (est. March 2022):
Lord Cameron pushed declared policy forward on asset seizure. But issue still stuck in bureaucratic legal reservations. /2
Ukraine’s power plants are being destroyed due to lack of Patriot systems available in abundance. This is far more urgent than building new, equally vulnerable, nuclear reactors.
Energy independence is vital to Ukraine’s security & nuclear provides over half of its power needs. Last week we marked at Khmelnytski NPP the first step of constructing 9 modern, safe nuclear reactors to replace Soviet-era equipment. Thanks to
@G_Galushchenko
,
@energoatom_ua
,
Moving piece by great neurosurgeon Henry Marsh, helping Ukraine for decades.
Fascinating fact (not mentioned here): he was one of Archie Brown's first PPE students in 1972.
i. Throw in enough extra mass to stop Ukraine and permanently secure at least some additional land it can claim as a victory worth the enormous costs Russia has incurred; and… /3
@olliecarroll
@bneeditor
And the only conceivable reason —unless someone can think of one— for Lavrov to ask this question was to embarrass her. Hardly constructive diplomacy.
ii. coerce Ukraine into ending the war – or frighten West into forcing this on it. This means threat or use of nuclear weapons -- a massive escalation of violence and risk. But… /4
In praise of
@Sasha_Etkind
’s “Russia Against Modernity”. Fabulous synthesis of diverse perspectives into trenchant portrait of contemporary Russia. And beautifully composed.
An intellectual lemon sorbet: clarifying, bracing, delicious. Do read it.
Note how logic of the war echoes lead-up to it. Then, all efforts to subordinate Ukraine only strengthened its resistance. Putin was left with choice of abandoning his goal or going to war. He chose latter. And now… /7
Astonishing and telling. Massive growth in Russian dependence on machinery & capital goods imports in early 2000s is not widely appreciated. Latest sanctions will be widely disruptive. Huge grain exporter will even struggle to make bread.
90% of bread bakeries in Russia run on imported, primarily European, equipment. Because of the sanctions, they have spare parts and consumables that will last “a few months”, then it’s a race to the bottom. The genius of Putin at work.
Delighted to say that in March I join
@IISS_org
as Editor of Strategic Survey and Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia. Look forward to contributing to work of this world-class think-tank. And seeing more of UK/European friends.
Exodus of IT-specialists from Russia was recently discussed in the Duma. At least 70.000 programmers already left Russia, and it’s expected the same number of people are going to leave.
Absolutely right. Some voices now saying way to prevent a long war is to press Ukraine to compromise with Russia. The strategically and morally more literate answer is: escalate *quickly*.
1/10 Russia’s foothold in the southeast would constitute a permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and even survival. Control over Ukraine remains Putin’s goal, and that goal is not going to change. My latest in the
@ForeignPolicy