Nigel Gould-Davies @Nigelgd1 Twitter profile

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Nigel Gould-Davies

5 years

A thread on the history of political risk. We’ve all heard of it. But who coined the term, and why? It might surprise you /1

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Zelensky’s refusal to leave Kyiv in first days of war changed the course of history. Introduction to Strategic Survey 2022 @IISS_org

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

So in the past few days, Russia: 1. waiving usual standards to recruit for combat in Ukraine 2. seeking to recruit thousands of Syrian mercenaries 3. asking China for help. Each one spells trouble. Together, they spell desperation.

Dmitri Alperovitch

@DAlperovitch

2 years

Russia is asking China for “military equipment and aid” according to @washingtonpost @Dimi from @FinancialTimes reports that there are “some indications that China may be preparing to help” Could be munitions like Kalibr cruise missiles, Grad/Smerch rockets and artillery shells

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Shoigu’s round of calls with US, UK, France and Turkey, claiming Ukraine planning to use a ‘dirty bomb’ is v worrying. We’ve seen nothing like this intense military diplomacy since war began. Its substance is even more worrying. /1

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Note to Kissinger and others. Geopolitics isn't about bloodless abstractions of "space". "Giving up territory" also means "giving up people". We already know how they'll be treated. #UkraineRussiaWar

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

This is stunning news. Putin arresting --not just firing or reprimanding-- senior FSB figures. Stresses and strains of war on the power vertical.

Andrei Soldatov

@AndreiSoldatov

2 years

Putin appears to be truly unhappy with the FSB in Ukraine: he attacked the 5 Service SOiMS (FSB's foreign Intelligence branch). Sergei Beseda, head of the Service, and his deputy Bolukh, head of the DOI, placed under house arrest, according to my sources inside.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

9 months

#Russia warned of “unprecedented” consequences if West helped #Ukraine against invasion. West did so and suffered no such effects. Now, Russia warns of “serious” consequences if West seizures Central Bank assets. Let’s draw the proper conclusions.

Russia warns US and Europe over reports Ukraine may get its seized assets

Kremlin threatens ‘serious consequences’ if there is an unprecedented seizure of Russian assets held abroad

www.theguardian.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Of course, Ukraine has neither ability nor need to use dirty bomb. It’s Russia that’s losing. Nor will anyone believe Shoigu anyway –esp Ben Wallace, who was lied to during his pre-invasion visit to Moscow./2

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

7 months

How can the West respond to murder of #Navalny ? In two ways, neither hard: 1. To US: sort it out on Capitol Hill and pass a new aid bill for #Ukraine 2. To EU: sort it out in Brussels and seize $300bn in frozen Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

The real question is what the West does if Russia uses nuclear weapons. Shoigu’s calls gave Western govts an opportunity to reiterate warnings about the consequences. We must hope they took it. /end

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Shoigu also warned of ‘uncontrolled escalation’. It’s Russia that is escalating: attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, apparent attacks on Western connectivity infrastructure, and mining of Novaya Kakhovka dam. And playing with nuclear fire in Zaporizhzhiya for months. /3

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Russia’s monthly oil & gas revenues have more than halved since April. “Spiking inflows/ sanctions failing”narrative was over-written.

Alexandra Prokopenko

@amenka

2 years

#Russian #oil & #gas revenues collapsed in July, according to @ru_minfin failing of #gas income is especially impressive, because of the energy war with the #EU . Export duty fell 1/3: -32.9% YoY (64.9% YoY in June). We will see the reverse in o&g revenues during next month.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Best stop digging and resign. You own this.

Agnes Callamard

@AgnesCallamard

2 years

Ukrainian and Russian social media mobs and trolls: they are all at it today attacking @amnesty investigations. This is called war propaganda, disinformation, misinformation. This wont dent our impartiality and wont change the facts.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

I worry there is too much motivated reasoning in dismissing possible Russian nuclear use. We don’t want it to happen, and/or we don’t see the point, therefore it won’t. But Russia faces logic of dwindling choices as it loses. Escalation of all kinds more likely. /5

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

So hard to see these calls as anything other than Shoigu either doubling down on Putin’s bluffs, or preparing way for Russian nuclear use. Yes, nuclear (ie fission). A dirty bomb wd breach nuclear taboo but not achieve significant effects. /4

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

@olga_chyzh 1. 'oligarchs' aren't the only mechanism 2. these sanctions are unprecedented and will create unprecedented strains and stresses on all sorts of interests 3. when political scientists say something won't happen, 15% of the time it does (Tetlock)

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Quote of the day.

Mykola Vorobiov 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇪🇺

@komitet2012

2 years

“We finished up with the 🇷🇺professional army, and now it’s time to defeat unprofessional” - Gen. Valerii Zaluzhny, a Commander-in-Chief of the Armed forces of Ukraine.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Since February we have heard much about #Russia ’s “red lines”. I believe this bad metaphor hinders clear strategic thinking. Red lines are red herrings. Here’s why:

Opinion | Putin Has No Red Lines (Published 2023)

There are better ways to think about strategy.

www.nytimes.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

This is so smart. Russia has long phoned parents of dead Ukrainian soldiers to torment them. Now Ukraine will phone parents of captured Russian soldiers to tell them they're safe.

Ben Stanley @bdstanley.bsky.social

@BDStanley

3 years

Ukraine opening a hotline so that Russian parents can find out about the whereabouts of their sons. Ukrainian soldiers asking captured teenage conscripts for their parents’ phone numbers. A Ukrainian citizen pulling up to a Russian tank and offering to tow it back to Russia.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Whether Russia is “too strong and will win” or “too weak and will escalate”, the answer for some is always “compromise with Russia”.

Konstantin Sonin

@k_sonin

2 years

This is the headline from a January article by @scharap , an expert with @RANDCorporation . Last week @nytimes published another "just make Chamberlain work" piece by him. Maybe some should ask "experts" to re-evaluate what they said last time before printing another "analysis"?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 months

Lt-Col Bohdan Krotevych, chief of staff, 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov, called on @IISS_org . Many fascinating insights. Here’s one: #Ukraine avoids targeting Russian commanders who perform badly. To paraphrase Napoleon: never kill an enemy who is prone to making mistakes.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Poll of Russian public opinion on war in Ukraine, by group of independent sociologists: Since start of war, support up from 59% to 64%, opposition down from 22% to 9%. Those most opposed: under 34 and greater users of online media. /1

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

This is indeed a revealing linguistic detail. Lavrov says that Central & E European states became "unowned" after dissolution of Warsaw Pact. Not sovereign, independent or free, but "unowned".

Marek Menkiszak

@MarekMenkiszak

3 years

In Rus: "НАТО сейчас – это чисто геополитический проект по освоению территории, которая казалась «бесхозной» после исчезновения Варшавского договора и после распада Советского Союза." It means🇷🇺considers itself being inherited "owner"of not only area of frm USSR b/all EastEurope.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

Interesting intervention. Putin’s first PM says neither Gorbachev nor Yeltsin were promised that NATO wd not enlarge.

Михаил Касьянов

@MKasyanov

3 years

Путин сказал, что в НАТО обещали не двигаться на восток, но «надули». Таких обещаний Запад не давал ни М.С.Горбачеву, ни Б.Н.Ельцину. Я это знаю из своих личных бесед с ними.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

My piece on an EU visa ban on Russia just out. A hard issue. Here's where I landed: /1

A visa ban is a sanction the West should impose

European Union ministers rejected a proposal to ban Russians from entering the bloc’s territory, opting instead for a half-measure that features none of the benefits and many of the disadvantages of...

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

This. No evidence whatever that Russia has abandoned its maximalist goals. They’ve always believed they can beat West in contest of resolve —as they have repeatedly in past 10+ years. Any ‘compromise’ will at best be prelude to further assault.

Sabine Fischer

@SabFis3

2 years

@meduzaproject says it very clearly: "Kremlin officials are skeptical that Western nations can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on. Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. (3/8) 👇👇👇

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Scholars of Germany: so how did Hitler keep elites loyal in 1944-45 when clearly losing war and bringing disaster on country (apart from Stauffenberg plot, of course). You know why I’m asking.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

7 months

Good reminder here that Voltaire used the terms "Ukraine" and "Ukrainians" several times, including (in 1731) that "Ukraine has always aspired to be free".

Putin’s history lecture reveals his dreams of a new Russian Empire

Vladimir Putin turned his hotly anticipated interview with Tucker Carlson into a history lecture that laid bare the dangerous delusions and imperial ambitions driving the invasion of Ukraine, writes...

www.atlanticcouncil.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

5 months

This is pretty remarkable. EU companies still providing hundreds of millions of dollars of equipment to major #Russian Arctic LNG project despite sanctions.

EU Firms Supply $630Mln in Equipment to Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 Project Despite Sanctions

European companies have supplied over $630 million worth of equipment according to the current exchange rate to Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project since the invasion of Ukraine despite it being under...

www.themoscowtimes.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 months

What does Labour govt mean for Ukraine? Good things. Labour manifesto calls for: 1. Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression; 2. Seizure and repurposing of frozen Russian state assets. New Attorney General is Richard Hermer. This matters because... /1

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Watch this. It was expected that Belarus wd send forces into Ukraine to cut off supply lines from Poland at start of war. That dog didn’t bark. But Putin now desperate and will twist Luka more than ever.

Pavel Latushka

@PavelLatushka

2 years

Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers 🇷🇺 during November-February. 🇧🇾 undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

So UK Treasury waived its own sanction on head of murderous Russian paramilitary group to enable him to sue leading open-source investigator @EliotHiggins for libel in a UK court. This is an outrage./1

UK government ‘let lawyers bypass sanctions’ to help Putin ally sue journalist

Documents seen by Open Democracy show UK firm got approval to engage with Wagner group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin

www.theguardian.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Russia’s main self-legitimation is defeat of Nazi Germany. Now it is behaving like Nazis in name of denazification. Total moral degeneration of an entire system. Must be resisted by all available means.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

You only do this if you are going to do something you don't want the world to see. Extremely worrying. #Belarus

Tadeusz Giczan

@TadeuszGiczan

4 years

Belarusian authorities have decided to expel all the Western journalists. Reuters, BBC, AP, Agence France-Presse, Radio Free Europe, Deutsche Welle, ARD, RFi. This morning their correspondents and photographers have been stripped of accreditation and have to leave the country

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Struck by this contrast: - #Belarus 2020: much of the country rose up in sustained, peaceful protest vs brutal regime after rigged election: - #Russia 2022: almost no protests, and none sustained, vs brutal invasion, even after mobilisation begins.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 months

@EdwardGLuce Snakes on a plane?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Mobilisation is an act of desperation the Kremlin has done everything until now to avoid. And it is no quick fix. Russia has left it late, and conditions are far less favourable now. /1

Mobilisation: Russia crosses the Rubicon

Russia’s announcement that it will begin a partial mobilisation of its citizens to stop the Ukrainian advance and retain control of some of the territory it has seized since February is an act of...

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

More evidence that most Russian elites -- 70%, says @albats -- oppose the war but are too afraid to do anything. Good piece on silovik feuds by @Andrew__Roth and @PjotrSauer

‘Someone will fall victim’: insiders reveal elite anguish as Russia’s war falters

Key figures including Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin are using military defeats to undermine defence chief Sergei Shoigu

www.theguardian.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Significant. Add to this the costs of fighting the war, and divide the total into #Russia ’s falling GDP. Burden of this folly is rising.

Janis Kluge

@jakluge

2 years

#Russia 's Finance Ministry reports that additional spending of 5tn rubles per year was requested by other ministries to deal with #sanctions effects (4% of GDP, or a 20% spending increase). Even if not all wishes will be granted, spending will rise drastically in the next years.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

In sum: most Russians support the war, want it to continue, but do not want to take part. An interesting tension here. Would propaganda still work if Kremlin ordered a general mobilisation?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

23 days

I predict @TheEconomist has the Russian economy very wrong. It is not “thriving”. And the best economic minds in Russia don’t believe this either.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

I’ve watched their body language since I served in Minsk. I think no-one gets under Putin’s skin like Lukashenka.

Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

2 years

Putin's feet during his meeting with Lukashenko. Is this Morse code?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Terrific piece by Svetlana Stephenson. Best I've seen on Putin's recent meeting abt the war with hand-picked mothers. "Putin's Idealization of Death Reflects Russia's Growing Nazification". /1 .

Putin's Idealization of Death Reflects Russia's Growing Nazification

Opinion | The carnival of violence that has for years permeated Russia's state-controlled media has in recent months given way to a new tone of solemnity and calls for national acts of heroism as the...

www.themoscowtimes.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

3 larger points: 1. This state terrorism appears carefully planned, not opportunistic 2. Confirms Belarus KGB active in EU. Past evidence of this, but more significant now with many dissidents & exiles abroad 3. If confirmed, use of MIG-29 means MoD directly support repression.

max seddon

@maxseddon

3 years

Mad news out of Belarus, where authorities forced a @Ryanair flight to land in Minsk over a bomb threat. The seems to be a pretext to arrest a founder of @nexta_tv , which was key to organizing protests against Lukashenko. He could face the death penalty!

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

24 days

For the first time since 1944, Russian territory is under occupation. Not clear how long this will last or what Ukraine’s intentions are. But this is an astonishing development.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

This is worth watching. By turns alarmed, deranged, at a loss, with home truths. A real TV debate. I wonder what the average Russian viewer took away.

Shaun Walker

@shaunwalker7

2 years

The guests all seem genuinely emotional and nervous here - not the performative-emotional we’re used to. Seems the hunt for who to blame for the messed up military campaign (the “criminally irresponsible” in the words of a guest) may get underway soon. (Vid via @JuliaDavisNews )

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

So far Russia has not tried to build even the flimsiest pretext to intervene. No “our historic land” (like Crimea), no “fascist Bandera” types (like Ukraine), no “coloured revolution” (like everywhere)..../1

Christopher Miller

@ChristopherJM

4 years

Backed into a corner as his regime collapses, Lukashenko says he’s considering asking Putin for help, because the popular uprising against him is “a threat not only to Belarus, but to the entire post-Soviet world.” Will Putin respond? Watch this space.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

1 month

1. Russia broke with parity in this exchange. West got twice as many out as gave up; 2. Putin made this concession after initially seeking parity; 3. Includes Russian activists given punitive exemplary sentences to deter others. They are free voices again; 4. No “red lines” or

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

65% of Russians would not stop the war if they could. 22% would. 51% not ready to take part in it, 39% are ready (esp. 39-58 year-olds) 71% say they understand the goal, but not all can say what is. Answers vary: destruction of Nazism, fascism; then saving Russia from NATO./2

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

1 year

Russia now has biggest labour shortage since records began in 1998.

Работник двадцатипятилетия

Нехватка кадров оценена на рекордном уровне

www.kommersant.ru

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

1 month

The brave are not always right. @ACF_int errs in depicting sanctions as targeting Russian society. No, they target Russia’s economy that fuels the war. If you oppose the war, you should deny Russia the means to wage it.

Łukasz Adamski

@LukaszAdamskiPL

1 month

1/5 🧵 I cardinally disagree - with all due respect to Vladimir Kara-Murza and other brave Russian opposition politicians, who regained their freedom yesterday as a result of being exchanged for Russian agents - with calls for sanctions not to affect ordinary Russians. No,

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

As late as 2019, over 50% of Ukrainians viewed Russia favourably. Now 2%.

Oliver Carroll

@olliecarroll

2 years

Few surprises as new polling shows shifting Ukrainian attitudes to Russia. Just 2pc now ready to say they view Russia positively. Source: Kyiv International Institute of Sociology

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

Recall, too, that this is a consequence, not cause, of Russian actions. In 2013, Ukrainian support for NATO membership stood at 14%.

Ian Kelly

@ikelly731

3 years

@CastilloJasen It’s not about NATO wanting something. The point is, most Ukrainians want their country to be a member of NATO.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

All efforts to wage limited war have failed. Putin increasingly left with choice of full withdrawal or full-scale war. He is moving towards latter. Russia’s external weakness has been laid bare; now its internal strength will be tested. / End

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

The presidents of Russia and Tajikistan were born two days apart.

Halle Berry

@halleberry

3 years

tell me something I don’t know.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

19 days

Ukraine’s audacious move shows that quality has a quantity all of its own. And it drives home unpredictability of the war. Strikingly, Putin downplaying the occupation of Russian territory, not using it to mobilise population. Nor have Russians spontaneously rallied in outrage.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 months

Please correct this @BBCWorld @Jaroslav1104 . Simply untrue that “Under international law, countries cannot confiscate those assets from Russia and give them to Ukraine.” Read the copious scholarship. We will be glad to advise.

G7 agrees $50bn loan for Ukraine from frozen Russian assets - BBC News

The funds will help Ukraine to fight invading Russian forces, a move Moscow condemns.

www.bbc.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

1 year

Ukraine’s original 1993 ask for giving up nuclear weapons: billions of dollars of help, and to treat an attack on it as though it were on the US… Not a million miles from where we are 30 yrs on. @strobetalbott The Russia Hand, p. 79.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

@jeshaw81 Then doubling down on bluff. Let’s hope so.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

V interesting interview with @DmitriTrenin . Argues that NATO membership for Ukraine poses not a military, but "geopolitical and geocultural", threat to Russia. Why? It leads to "political and ideological transformation" in all spheres of life. /1

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

1 month

As I finish my book on #Russia sanctions, it seems I have been sanctioned by Russia. Apparently I am a British Russophobe working to create the conditions for Russia’s strategic defeat and international isolation. I am not a Russophobe.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

9 months

At last. This is a big deal. West has $300bn of Russian Central Bank assets in its financial systems. As U.S. and EU wrangle over new financial support to Ukraine, the obvious thing to do is to give it the aggressor’s funds. @tashecon

Kira Rudik

@kiraincongress

9 months

UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron: ‘instead of just freezing russia’s confiscated assets, let’s take them and spend them on rebuilding Ukraine’. Such a powerful standpoint should be put in practice.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Absolutely. I'll say it again: ZERO evidence Russia has scaled back its goal of subordinating Ukraine. Senior Russians are restating this openly: Shamanov, now Patrushev. Now beginning to mobilise economy for this long fight too.

Oxana Shevel 🇺🇦

@OxanaShevel

2 years

How many times Putin & his cronies have to say that their ultimate goal is elimination of Ukrainian sovereignty & identity before western “peacemakers” will finally believe them & stop living in la-la land where giving in parts of 🇺🇦 to 🇷🇺 can bring lasting peace?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

23 days

Putin discussing Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, which he says the West is behind. He looks and sounds not angry, outraged, determined —but hesitant and rattled.

Дождь

@tvrain

23 days

Путин собрал совещание по ситуации в приграничных с Украиной регионах, на котором потребовал от Минобороны «выдавить противника» с российских территорий и заявил о росте числа желающих заключить военные контракты Он также заявил, что Украина проводит операцию в Курской области

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 months

V significant. Bank of China has stopped operations in Russia for fear of latest U.S. secondary sanctions. U.S. slow to use this unique & fearsome weapon vs Russia, but began last December (EO 14114). This + 14th EU package = steady sanctions escalation

Проф. Преображенский

@prof_preobr

2 months

Российская дочка Bank of China остановила операции с попавшими под санкции банками РФ. Структура, обеспечивающая расчёты в юанях между Китаем и Россией, выполняет требование США. Путинисты, как вы там говорите? "Китай - наш друг и партнёр, мы вместе противостоим Америке"?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

5 years

The bones of Stalin's victims will continue to be discovered across former Soviet Union for centuries.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

My latest piece just out. Some argue that Western and Ukrainian interests differ. A serious argument, but wrong. A compromise peace with Russian gains wd be disastrous for Western interests.

We Are All Ukrainians Now

Opinion | Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has united Western states and societies in outrage.

www.themoscowtimes.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

My distilled thoughts on where crisis is leading. Russia's compellence has left it worse off diplomatically. Ball is back in Putin's court. He has 4 options now. War may be the most risky but least unattractive.

IISS News

@IISS_org

3 years

Where is the current crisis over Ukraine leading, what choices does Russia now face, and how likely is war? In his latest article, @Nigelgd1 explains why, despite intense diplomatic efforts, military conflict is looking more likely

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

There are still some folk who think Russia’s build-up is “just” coercive diplomacy, not a real threat to Ukraine. This is a category error. Coercive diplomacy logically entails the credible threat of military force. Otherwise it’s just an expensive parade.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Regime now struggles to articulate goals and muster means. Harder than ever to believe time on its side. Strategy rests on two hopes. But both will stoke domestic fear and resistance... /2

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Until now, Russians could lead apolitical lives and be left alone. Now they must die for their country. Elites can keep families safe from call-up. But they know that any use of nuclear weapons would incur a devastating response. So… /5

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

21 days

@nexta_tv @WStrohmacher Russia also moving conscripts from Murmansk to Kursk. Everything to avoid using forces in Ukraine.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

First questions on ‘peace plan’ (more available): 1. Wd Russia recognise Ze govt as legitimate and stop referring to ‘illegal overthrow’ of 2014? 2. What credible compliance guarantees can Russia offer, given past violations of agreements and lies before the invasion? 1/2

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

Russian FM Lavrov says Belarusian is an "artificial" language. Cf. Putin's assertions abt Ukraine. Kremlin wishes to decide whether others have genuine cultures, languages etc.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 months

Key development: Senior parliamentarians from two dozen countries call for confiscating Russian Central Bank assets and giving them to Ukraine. A wide international coalition at last.

Aaron Gasch Burnett

@AaronGBurnett

3 months

G7 leaders must “dispense with half-measures” and confiscate all $300 bn in Russia’s frozen state assets. So writes @MiRo_SPD (🇩🇪) & 25 other Foreign & European Affairs parliamentary committee chairs & MPs in today’s @FT #MakeRussiaPay

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Visa ban is also a security measure to stop ‘tourists’ visiting cathedral spires etc. After diplomatic expulsions, Russia needs this sort of cover more than ever. And it now presents a greater threat than ever. Countries at war don’t let adversary citizens wander around. /5

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

Some thoughts on Russian build-up near Ukraine’s border. /1

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 months

Hermer is well placed to make declared policy of Russian asset seizure and repurposing a real and effective one. For a compelling legal case for seizure, see: @iiss_org

On Proposed Countermeasures Against Russia to Compensate Injured States for Losses Caused by...

There is a strong legal case for seizing Russian central-bank assets and transferring them to Ukraine. This would provide urgently needed support.

www.iiss.org

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

This is not the opposition. This is the people. #Belarus

Christopher Miller

@ChristopherJM

4 years

Massive crowd of many 1,000s now on Minsk’s Independence Square. People defying Lukashenko and his security forces and turning out despite threats of a crackdown all week. Incredible.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

I was in court yesterday for the start of the "Putin's People" libel trial. Here are some reflections: Thanks to @PjotrSauer @MoscowTimes for the invitation to write.

Putin’s People vs ‘Putin’s People’

Opinion | At 10:40 a.m. on July 28 Mrs Justice Tipples entered Court 4 of the Royal Courts of Justice in London.

www.themoscowtimes.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

Lady with a lapdog, Washington DC

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

Why does the only country in the world that formats dates "month/day" calls its independence day "Fourth of July"?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Elites and masses alike have compelling interest in opposing the only means to continue war. Can this take effective political form, or will regime escalate repression to prevent it, even as it escalates war against Ukraine? And finally… /6

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 months

Hermer is a member of Legal Task Force on Accountability for Crimes Committed in Ukraine (est. March 2022): Lord Cameron pushed declared policy forward on asset seizure. But issue still stuck in bureaucratic legal reservations. /2

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

5 months

Ukraine’s power plants are being destroyed due to lack of Patriot systems available in abundance. This is far more urgent than building new, equally vulnerable, nuclear reactors.

Ambassador Bridget A. Brink

@USAmbKyiv

5 months

Energy independence is vital to Ukraine’s security & nuclear provides over half of its power needs. Last week we marked at Khmelnytski NPP the first step of constructing 9 modern, safe nuclear reactors to replace Soviet-era equipment. Thanks to @G_Galushchenko , @energoatom_ua ,

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Moving piece by great neurosurgeon Henry Marsh, helping Ukraine for decades. Fascinating fact (not mentioned here): he was one of Archie Brown's first PPE students in 1972.

Henry Marsh: a doctor’s view of the war in Ukraine

The neurosurgeon played a part in the modernisation of a Soviet-era health system — and watched as a young democracy took shape

www.ft.com

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

UEFA has anticipated geopolitics. Tonight: Russia vs Turkey Lithuania vs Belarus

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

i. Throw in enough extra mass to stop Ukraine and permanently secure at least some additional land it can claim as a victory worth the enormous costs Russia has incurred; and… /3

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

7 years

If you resist the temptation not to go to the gym, this is exactly what you get

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

@olliecarroll @bneeditor And the only conceivable reason —unless someone can think of one— for Lavrov to ask this question was to embarrass her. Hardly constructive diplomacy.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

ii. coerce Ukraine into ending the war – or frighten West into forcing this on it. This means threat or use of nuclear weapons -- a massive escalation of violence and risk. But… /4

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

10 months

In praise of @Sasha_Etkind ’s “Russia Against Modernity”. Fabulous synthesis of diverse perspectives into trenchant portrait of contemporary Russia. And beautifully composed. An intellectual lemon sorbet: clarifying, bracing, delicious. Do read it.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Note how logic of the war echoes lead-up to it. Then, all efforts to subordinate Ukraine only strengthened its resistance. Putin was left with choice of abandoning his goal or going to war. He chose latter. And now… /7

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Astonishing and telling. Massive growth in Russian dependence on machinery & capital goods imports in early 2000s is not widely appreciated. Latest sanctions will be widely disruptive. Huge grain exporter will even struggle to make bread.

Bakhti Nishanov

@b_nishanov

2 years

90% of bread bakeries in Russia run on imported, primarily European, equipment. Because of the sanctions, they have spare parts and consumables that will last “a few months”, then it’s a race to the bottom. The genius of Putin at work.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

Q: What is a “multi-vector foreign policy”? Kazakhstan: equally good relations with every country Belarus: equally bad relations with every country

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

5 years

Delighted to say that in March I join @IISS_org as Editor of Strategic Survey and Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia. Look forward to contributing to work of this world-class think-tank. And seeing more of UK/European friends.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

4 years

Former English teacher speaks English. Therefore Belarus will join NATO. Which part of your academic training taught you to think like this?

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

3 years

So Putin is a ‘bad actor’ in two senses.

The New Voice of Ukraine

@NewVoiceUkraine

3 years

The truth is reflected in Putin's kettle - no "meetings with stewardesses" can be seen there. Just an empty office.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Russia's future leaving Russia.

Irina Borogan

@irinaborogan

2 years

Exodus of IT-specialists from Russia was recently discussed in the Duma. At least 70.000 programmers already left Russia, and it’s expected the same number of people are going to leave.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Fully agree. Russia won’t negotiate for real until it concludes that costs and risks of continuing war exceed those of ending it.

Olga Lautman 🇺🇦

@OlgaNYC1211

2 years

I can’t believe anyone still believes that negotiations were ever real. Russia made a mockery of negotiations last year and has zero interest now.

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Nigel Gould-Davies

@Nigelgd1

2 years

Absolutely right. Some voices now saying way to prevent a long war is to press Ukraine to compromise with Russia. The strategically and morally more literate answer is: escalate *quickly*.

Nataliya Bugayova

@nataliabugayova

2 years

1/10 Russia’s foothold in the southeast would constitute a permanent threat to Ukraine’s sovereignty and even survival. Control over Ukraine remains Putin’s goal, and that goal is not going to change. My latest in the @ForeignPolicy

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