I spent a lot of time reflecting on and then writing this essay about my recent trip to China, and the future of US-China scholarly exchange generally. Thanks so much to
@goldkorn
and
@thechinaproj
for publishing it, and I hope you’ll all give it a read 🙏
Complicated guy, super complicated legacy. But at least one thing is for sure: no other Chinese paramount leader of the past 100 years (since Sun Yat-sen) would have deigned to sit for an interview like this, much less have performed so ably (with such flair) in this setting:
Here’s the one thing I’ll say conclusively right now: There is literally no story or development in law or politics anywhere in the world that is nearly as intellectually interesting as what is happening in China right now and for the foreseeable future. Like, it’s not even close
Your occasional reminder that if the US and China were to go to war, it would be a monumental, era-defining catastrophe for both countries and for the planet as a whole.
Hey China, you up? Listen, I know we said some mean things. But that’s behind us now, right? We still cool? You know you can reach out when you need us too. For real! BFFs?
Probably the most interesting Q in China politics now and for the near future is "why was the zero-Covid policy dismantled so quickly?" And I'm quite sure that, outside of the small handful of people who made that decision, *no one* (bold, underscore) really knows the answer.
“Weiss has emerged as a kind of loyal and measured opposition to a rare case of bipartisan consensus in Washington—that China must be countered at all costs.” 👏👏
@jessicacweiss
@iandenisjohnson
A Professor Who Challenges the Washington Consensus on China
I generally very much appreciate the
@TheEconomist
’s China coverage—some of the very best stuff out there—but, man, the China-related cover images in recent years (including this week’s👇) are easily among the most senselessly obnoxious / offensive I’ve ever seen 🤦♂️
3 things can be true at the very same time:
1) China is experiencing a real economic crisis that has jolted the top leadership;
2) there is no threat whatsoever to regime legitimacy, much less control, for the foreseeable future;
3) China remains a formidable economic competitor.
Chinese nationalists on Weibo are a big big big problem for everyone, but most of all for Chinese leaders who feel like they have to stay ahead of the wave lest it crash on them too
Yang Jiechi, smooth as silk, eleven years ago at the CFR in New York, introduced by
@RichardHaass
. Wonder if we’ll ever have someone in that role on our side who could do the same as comfortably, in Chinese, in Beijing 🤔
“Selective decoupling”? In my own view, there is no better guarantor of peace, stability, and economic growth in our world today than to bind China and the U.S. so closely together that the war hawks on both sides—who only see things through a military lens—are fully boxed in.
This is so embarrassing. Dude is Rear Admiral and Commander of Office of Naval Intelligence! “Most Chinese fully believe [we are the number 1 enemy].” Just absolute nonsense. How does it help us for powerful folks like this guy to be so friggin’ ignorant??
The one thing I’ll add to all the chatter about this: if you look closely, it really does seem like WHN is calling all the shots, even keeping ZLJ from getting up, while every else sits stone-faced. Anyway, like everyone else is saying, remarkable footage
After I started taking Chinese in college in 1994, the dad of a girl I liked told me I was making a poor choice, that China wasn’t very important, and investing time in learning the language/more about the country was a waste of time. I think about that convo a lot these days 😅
Seeing XJP in these candid moments in Bali (eg the video with Trudeau) is kinda fascinating. He’s clearly a confident, self-assured dude, and he seems to be having fun mixing it up with his counterparts. It’s not hard to see why he’s been so effective in navigating CN politics.
Incidentally, to all who been working overtime to hype the “China Threat” in recent yrs, the reason why folks like me been telling you to chill is bc we always understood China had far too many internal problems/contradictions to be 20 ft tall existential threat y’all been saying
China is strong China is weak China is rising China is falling XJP is all powerful XJP is fatally weakened China’s economy is too sluggish China’s economy is too hot China’s Zero-COVID policy lasted too long China’s Zero-COVID policy was abandoned too quickly Sichuan food is yum
New
#china
travel restrictions in place. Shanghai officials announce any visitors from Beijing high or medium risks areas will be quarantined or self isolate for 14 days.
Apart from securing his own power base, can XJP plausibly claim any real achievement over the past 10 years? I honestly can’t think of anything that holds up right now.
Unofficial transcript of Xi-Putin call this am:
Xi: "Yo, dude, WTF?"
Putin: "C'mon man, you know they made me do it."
Xi: "You know I don't like them either, but still, wtf?"
Putin: "Anywho, still BFFs?"
Xi: "I never said we were BFFs, anyway I have to think about it."
END SCENE
Is Chinese MOFA engagement on Twitter supposed to reach Western or Chinese audiences? If the former, here are 2 helpful tips to be more effective: 1) no one cares what aging British rockstars think of the Taiwan issue; 2) no one thinks culinary options have geostrategic relevance
My counter take: there is no single individual who has done more to change perceptions of China than Xi Jinping. Not Lighthizer, not Pottinger, not Pompeo, etc. Xi set the direction—his decisions are by far the most important explanatory variable, in gauging changed perceptions.
Departing USTR Lighthizer told
@bobdavis187
the incoming Biden administration should retain Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports — all of them. “We changed the way people think about China.”
Ok ima gonna make a prediction: no chance at all that Beijing goes under Shanghai-style (mass quarantine, separate families, deny medical care, barter food) lockdown. If omicron cases really do hit the capital, as now appears, “zero Covid” policy as we’ve known it so far is done.
It blows my mind that this was just shy of 80 years ago. Even as someone who works on China, my own sense of World War II is fairly Eurocentric—beyond a few major items I really don’t know much about what happened in the Pacific theater, and I suspect I’m not unique in that here
Just a thought: something that makes China relatively unique among autocratic regimes is the profound interest the leadership holds in mass public opinion—it’s something they care about deeply, certainly try to shape, and are even a little bit afraid of. How best to capture that?
One evening in Beijing back in Oct 2015, I was taking a taxi back from the northern suburbs, this song came on the radio, and the scene suddenly felt, well, cinematic. Sharing here for anyone else who has been dwelling lately about not being able to visit China the past 2 years..
This Thanksgiving Day, I'd like to share a very personal note of remembrance about my sister Mona, who passed away in February from and after a 12 year struggle against breast cancer. /1
Yo, headline writers, yes of course Shanghai is in dire straits right now, and that has *some* political valence, but maybe let's chill on the overheated language hyping the threat to regime stability? Stuff like this (from Feb 2020) didn't age well...:
Not endorsing every word of this Op-Ed by Wang Wen, but it *is* one of the most effective critiques of the US, from a Chinese perspective, that I’ve seen. By dialing down from the overheated excess of the Wolfpack, its critique lands a much sharper punch:
Oh, and for the record, yes I do think Chinese language ability is important... but not sufficient. Unless you too have taken the overnight hard sleeper train Beijing to Wuhan in the mid 90s, I'm prolly gonna approach your hot China takes with some caution ;)
The fact that so many Chinese foreign policy elites truly (and, imho, quite wrongly) believe this is turning into a much bigger problem than I imagined. A very unfortunate side-effect of folks from a context where everything is hidden misjudging a context where everything is open
Zhou believes that the US and other Western nations are riddled with internal conflicts, political infighting, social and economic inequities, that their governance system is failing, that their leadership is unreliable, and that their citizens are disheartened.
If I was Taiwanese, what would concern me most of all right now is the fundamental unseriousness of US conventional discourse about TW right now. So much just about our own domestic politics plus a (very) healthy dose of DoD funding targets. Very little thought to Taiwan itself…
I'm delighted to share that the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations has received a major new grant from the
@CarnegieCorp
, enabling us to build and expand on our mission of elevating new voices in U.S.-China policy discussion. /1
On behalf of the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations, I could not be more thrilled to announce the selection of our second fellowship cohort, fifteen truly outstanding next generation China scholars and analysts you can read more about here:
Fairly astute commentary by Zhou Zhixing, essentially (and correctly) arguing that Kissinger is irrelevant, and that Chinese foreign policy thinkers should be paying a lot more attention to the younger generations of American scholars and experts on China:
I don’t think it’s any exaggeration to say the single most important event in US-China relations over the past 3 years (at least) will be the full resumption of people-to-people exchange that will be launched over the next few months…
“Students are part of the ballast of this relationship. As recently as 10 years ago, there were 14,000-15,000 American students in China on an annual basis. There are now only about 350 American students in China.”
How tough is it to be Biden's point man in Beijing these days? Pretty tough.
@USAmbChina
Nicholas Burns dishes on the challenges of U.S.-China diplomacy in the shadow of a possible new Cold War in today's
@politico
Global Insider
China Twitter has many vigorous debates, sometimes it appears we can’t agree on anything, but in the spirit of unity—and with a view to a better tomorrow—let me humbly suggest at least we can all agree that Tom Friedman should never, ever, again be allowed to write about China.
Someday I would very much like to deliver a Ted talk entitled “How to Speak Critically about China Without Indulging in Lazy Rhetorical Flourishes Which Are Overbroad, Counterproductive, and Unnecessarily Alienate Otherwise Reachable Audiences”.
If you asked me yesterday at this time if I thought Chinese authorities were going to do away with the QR code system anytime soon I prob would have laughed at your naive Q. And yet here we are. Another day, another surprise from China. Keeps things interesting, that’s for sure!
I was going to quote tweet this with Jiang Zemin’s famous admonition… but I’ve decided to lay aside the snark and instead offer kudos to Amb. Qin for putting himself in the firing line & handling himself well. Tbh more Chinese leaders should prob do this, on domestic issues too
Why can’t you condemn this as an invasion?”
@margbrennan
asks China’s Ambassador to the U.S., Qin Gang of Russia’s Ukraine invasion.
“Don’t be naive. Condemnation doesn’t solve the problem,” he says.
@Alialaor
Putting all merits aside, it’s just incredibly fun to watch, and you have to admit he does have a certain kind of charisma. I could watch the clip on an endless loop all day 😂
A list of XJP’s goals for his Moscow visit:
1) show the Chinese people that he is a global statesman,
2) show the US that China will do whatever it wants,
3) show Putin who is the big boss,
4) don’t piss off the Europeans too much,
5) demonstrate multipolarity to the Global South
Visiting my folks, I found the album of my first trip to China, in summer ‘95 for Princeton-in-Beiiing, and saw this gem of a group photo. What a different China we all experienced then! Wonder what happened to everyone, how many are still working on China in one way or another?
So here’s an optimistic take for y’all to ponder: Sunday was the absolute zenith of XJP’s authority. Every day from here on out necessarily will be on a downward slope. (Maybe a gradual tilt, but downward all the same.) The laws of politics, and of age, are unforgiving like that.
One thing that U.S. and Chinese public commentary very much shares in common is taking any bad news or negative developments concerning the other and elevating it to the level of a clear existential threat to the other's very survival (which also confirms our own superiority).
I don’t want to be mean, but I feel like so much ink *still* being spent on HJT exit — which already dissected beyond all reasonable measure — is something of a bad sign for our collective knowledge level about what actually matters in Chinese politics right now
Smooth and very high speed rail in China and Europe is so overrated. It’s much more fun to feel every bump and shiver on the moderate speed journey on NE corridor to DC. Every jolt makes me feel even more patriotic!
This is an incredible, hard-to-process stat: “Fewer than 100 American troops died in combat in Afghanistan over the past five years, roughly the equivalent of the number of Americans currently dying from Covid-19 every two hours.”
Thrilled to share a new episode of the CSCC Podcast, my conversation with
@Tsinghua_Uni
's YAN XUETONG, China's leading IR scholar, on the topic of "China's Rise and IR Theory". Just posted here and downloading now to all your favorite podcast apps!
Most Chinese I know feel terrible about the Peng Shuai silencing. Most Americans I know feel terrible about the Kyle Rittenhouse verdict. What interests me very much is how to find shared spaces where these kinds of views can be exchanged without retreating to defensive postures.
Apologies to all in advance, but I knew I had this dictionary somewhere and I finally found it and, well, let’s just say I’ll be quoting from it a lot going forward 🤓
Academic exchange between the U.S. and China has brought benefits to both sides and needs to continue in the future, says an American scholar.
#GLOBALink
Some national security folks may think this is not a big problem, and may even welcome this development—but that’s because they haven’t thought the problem all the way through:
Re that Hu Wei piece: a lot of folks expressing skepticism that Mr. Hu has a direct line to relevant policymakers, much less XJP himself. Fine, but that doesn’t interest me so much. Rather, the key point here, imho, is that the commentary was published at all and is being shared.