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John Stargaryen Profile
John Stargaryen

@MmaFawkes

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Sports bettor. MMA observer and connoisseur. Co-Host of The Club and Sub Podcast. For takes on stocks, crypto and illiquid JPEGs follow @jstargeth

Joined August 2018
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 days
Happppppy #UFC304 Fight Day! Main card starting at 3am UK time could make for some suepr weird scenes....but great vcard in store. Thoughts Below: Edwards 75% (3.2u Edwards -213): Hard to take too too much from the first fight, but ultimately think Belal may need back takes to
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
You don’t appreciate how good John Anik is until you watch a Bellator broadcast.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Kris Moutinho is a favorite in a UFC fight. That's the tweet.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Bet Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush against Tony Ferguson.....now we buy the dip.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
If you bet your house on Thiago Santos this week….you will not have a house on Sunday morning
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
So tony Ferguson, who cut weight just prove he could, is going to rehydrate and then cut again three weeks later? That doesn’t seem like the healthiest idea...
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
GM everyone. 4 more sleeps till Cory Sandhagen finishes Petr Yan.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
If you’re a UFC 155er it must be painful to watch Rausch Manfio win a million dollars.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
Johnny Walker going from +175 against Ion Cutelaba two fights ago to favorite against Anthony Smith is the strangest timeline.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
If you illegally stream PPVs you shouldn’t talk about fighter pay...
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
6 months
Sweepstakes time. If Rodolfo Vieira submits Armen Petrosyan, I’ll give $200 to one person who likes, follows and retweets this tweet!
@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
6 months
Large #UFCVegas86 slate for me today. Got the butterflies going hard over how much I have on the table 😅 Quick Breakdown below: 4.5u Rodolfo Vieira avg price -114: Big two-way fight in the community this week. Bit nerve wracking with how different the opinions are here. But one
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 months
Petr Yan is either the best or second best bantamweight in the world....and is currently near pick'em with a guy who was an underdog to Ricky Simon two fights ago 👀
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Maybe this is a hot take, but IMO if a fighter grabs the fence to stop a takedown they should automatically lose a point, no warnings.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
I bought 4 UFC Strike packs today and somehow ended up with 5 Bruno Silva commons....FML
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
I keep waffling on Gaethje/Cerrone. I really don’t think Cowboy can standup to that pressure for long...at the same time, Gaethje is so fucking hittable.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
3.5u Elliott +220 💰 bEt wINNeRs
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Derrick Lewis has won 76% of his fights in the UFC at 16-5. I’m not sure there’s anyone else in the entire history of the organization to have 20+ fights, be over .500, and post striking and grappling metrics as poor as Lewis. It’s honestly unbelievable.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
@philthemmadude The double champ does whatever the fook he likes
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Betting on either Tim Elliott or Edson Barboza is not for the feint of heart. Betting on both as dogs on the same card some would call crazy. Alas, I am that crazy.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
1u Gruetzemacher +245 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
@philthemmadude What? Reyes just became the first fighter to ever Outland Jones.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Gilbert Burns is trending toward being a bigger dog to Khamzat than John Phillips 😅
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Imagine talking shit about Tyron Woodley for collecting the two biggest pay checks of his career.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Bets for #UFCVegas32 3u Elkins +130 2u Barber +140 2u Eubanks -275 1.5u Paiva +240 1u Dillashaw +175 1u Elkins ITD +290 1u Eubanks ITD +150 .5u Eubanks sub +500 BOL everyone 🥂
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
BIG Slate tmw for #UFCVegas56 2.5u Menifield -135 2u Jackson -330 2u Niklas Stolze +135 2u Michailidis +230 1.5u Gravely -140 1u Zhumagulov +165 1u Aldrich +460 1u KK Decision +150 .5u Gravely decision +275 Champagne and MMA, CLV for days, lets ship it 🚀
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Apparently there’s this dark part of MMA Twitter filled with Bones and DC are “overrated” furthers who all seem to think every 125er is more talented than every 205er.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Opinion: the UFC should only do 4-6 PPVs a year and they should all be as stacked as 244 and 245
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
5u Carla Esparza +175 2u Journey Newson +130 2u Matt Schnell +200 1u Tony Ferguson +300 Let’s ship it 🚀 #UFC274
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 months
One of my great passions in life is losing money trusting Curtis Blaydes to fight intelligently. We’re back this week baby! #UFC299
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
PSA: Colby is going to get fucking smashed next weekend. Not because he’s a MAGA hat wearing clown, but because Usman is better, full-stop. If you’re backing him it’s because you either love the shtick or your blinded by all the money he’s made you over the last few years.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
I’m very excited to attend #UFC268 live this weekend and watch Frankie Edgar ride Marlon Vera like a horse off into the sunset.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 months
Steve Erceg is 3-0 in the UFC....his opponents' combined UFC records are 10-11. Alexandre Pantoja is 11-3 in the UFC. his opponents' combined UFC records are 85-58. Food for thought. #UFC301
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
25 days
MMA Twitter....where we victory lap correctly picking a -500 a year and a half later yltsi
@mmalinemover
JEWISHBETTOR
27 days
Throw back to when this guy told me Kline would lose to a TUF reject
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Jon Jones is actually the worst.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
Ailin Perez is either going to look like lock of the year tonight or the literal worst bet ever; pretty much no in between.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Healthy slate for #UFCVegas50 today: 3u Damon Jackson +134 2u Karl Roberson +104 1.5u Bruno Silva +175 1u Trevin Jones +135 .5u Marlon Moraes +235 .5u Alex Caceres +240 1.5u Robertson/Aldrich over 2.5 -115 1u Cannetti/Moutinho under 2.5 +120 BOL folks 📈
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Zhang/Joanna is going to be fun.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
1u GM3 +550 💰 GM 🐐 baby
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Everyone is sharp when favorites go 13-1....but don't worry friends
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 months
HAPPY #UFC299 DAY!! Banger card, pumped to watch, and my biggest betting slate of the year. Could go disastrously....or could be amazing! We'll see. Some quick breakdowns and where I capped each fight below: O'Malley 67% (.5u O'Malley dec +125): Initially had bet O'Malley -200.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
4u Jared Gordon +140 and +125 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
I’m not over the fact that I lost money last night on a 5’8” HW landing a spinning wheel kick and Chito front kicking Frankie’s face off.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
I’m a man of simple tastes. Enjoy hanging out with my wife and kid, a medium rare steak, a nice red wine and cashing the occasional +350. 1u on Rakic by decision +350 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
So for everyone saying TJ ruined his legacy (I agree btw), what’s your take on Jon Jones? Because I don’t think you can simultaneously say he did and say Jon is the 🐐
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
I tried to tell y’all. 3u John Makdessi +165 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Bets for #UFCVegas52 : 2.5u Andrade -165 2.2u Guida -110 2u Barriault -190 Bets for #Bellator279 : 4u Juan Archuleta +220 BOL degens!
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Gm Fight Fam. Backing a lot of dogs at #UFC272 : 3.5u Elliott +220 2u Barboza +145 1u Hardy +175 1u Moroz +162 2.5u Masvidal No Scorecards +110 2.5u Masvidal/Colby goes the distance -130 BOL 🍻
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
19 days
2u Jasudavicius +140 💰 Throwback to a week ago when this guy tried to dunk for correctly picking a -500 to win.
@mmalinemover
JEWISHBETTOR
27 days
Throw back to when this guy told me Kline would lose to a TUF reject
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Slate today + My Odds for #UFCVegas46 2u Kattar +190 avg (45%) 2u McGee -108 (65%) 1u Pickett +115 (55%) 1u Algeo +130 (50%) 1u Bontorin +150 (50%) 1.5u under 2.5 Bush/Borschev -125 (65%) BOL folks 🥂
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Never thought I’d see the day when people were dying to parlay anyone against Aljamain Sterling at -450. But here we are, Petr Yan is apparently the easiest bet of the week. There’s zero chance that the fight could play out any differently than the first time. It is known.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
How many consecutive losses are you allowed before it becomes uncool to say “Champ Shit Only?” Asking for a friend.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
I woke up this morning and the first thing I said to myself was “I will never bet Bobby Green again”
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
Me: I’ll never bet contenders again, I’ll never bet contenders again, I’ll never bet contenders again... Me Next June: I really think there’s serious value on this 2-0 Australian chick on Tuesday night...
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
This is what delusion looks like.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
2.16u McGee -108 💰 Said it on the pod this week, but unless Court’s age finally caught up with him, there was not a single area of this fight where Ramiz had an edge. Cool to cash the first ticket of the year.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Don’t bet Mark Madsen this week fam.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
3u Hooker -110 2u Volkov +110 1u Durden +425 May still add Valiev, seeing what late line movement looks like. BOL 🍻 #UFCLondon
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
Maybe I’m completely misreading this, but I don’t see much reason to think Cejudo can duplicate Garbrandt’s gameplan. In fact, when we have seen him sit back and not look to pressure, he’s generally gotten eaten up at distance. #UFC249
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
19 days
these cards are WILD
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
@BestFightPicks Jones. Easy to forget after the Reyes and Santos fights. But no one really tested peak Jones. Even the first Gus fight, while it was a great fight, thought Jones won pretty clear.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
IMO RDA was one of the best dog spots of the weekend. Bummer that fight is off.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Alonzo Menifield still being priced as if he’s good lol
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
16 days
First #UFC304 bet 2.5u Curtis Blaydes +317 Price is absolutely insane. Had Blaydes near pick in the first fight and obviously got super lucky. Do think Aspinall logically should be a favorite as Blaydes isn't really reliable to wrestle and Aspinall is super fast and hits as hard
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Fact: Cowboy is the easiest matchup of all the potential fights Conor could take. Fact: EVERYONE will buy it, even if you’d rather see him fight Gaethje, let’s be real. Fact: If he fights Masvidal next it’ll be the most hyped fight of 2020...including Ferguson/Khabib.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
Had a dream last night that Curtis Blaydes decided to stand and Bang with Sergei Pavlovich...
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 years
Pretty amazing how few people are talking about the fact that Khabib pretty clearly missed weight last night.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
I have 4u on Jared Gordon this weekend across +140 and +125. Personally think he’s going to tune Joe up anywhere the fight goes. Have him at 65% myself in this spot. Not financial advice.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
@UFO_UFC Tbh Holm rematch is far more intriguing
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
I have mixed feelings about this #UFC267 card. On a lot of dogs that I think are certainly value at their price, but also think most are likely to lose.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Sad day when BJ Penn is struggling to pass guard against strip club bouncers...
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
No one wanted to bet Josh Fremd +185 against Sedriques Dumas, but everyone wants to bet Cody Brundage as a moderate favorite against him 🤔
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
3u Jackson +134 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
3u Jacoby (-130/-102) 3u Simon (+140) 1.55u Burgos (-155) 1u Ortega (-165) .75u Penne (+120) 2u Penne/Ducote GTD (-165) Likely will add a unit on Dwight Grant BOL everyone! 🍻 #UFCLongIsland
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
@MikesMMAPicks literally no one has counted Zhang out. She’s -350 lmao
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Lmao
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
1u Gordon +250 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
2u Stots +435 and 450 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
3u Barboza +110 (65%) 2u Jamal Emmers -108 (62.5%) 1.5u Lee -145 (70%) 1.5u Sam Alvey +134 (50%) 1u Meerschaert +550 (25%) 1u Cannetti +290 (33%) LFG. BOL 🍻
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
+3.78u last night. +55.2u for the year, ROI 30% 👀 On to next week! Doesn’t look great at first glance though.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
12 days
2.09u Jandiroba -139 💰 1u under 2.5 rounds +150 💰 1.6u Lemos under 57.5 Sig Strikes 💰 2u Virna under 49.5 Sig Strikes 💰 1u Peterson over 0.5 takedowns/Virna under 49.5 Sig Strikes +180 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Official plays for tonight: 4u Jared Gordon (+140 and +125) 1u Antonina Shevchenko +180 1u Stephanie Egger (-105) 2u Santos/Walker doesn’t start round 4 (-168) .5u Shevchenko wins by KO (+800) Also have leans to Mullarkey and Cirkunov but no bets. LFG everyone. BOL 🥂
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
Did I get reverse swept on Saturday? Yup. Was it the first time? Nope. Will it be the last time? Probably not. Am I deterred? Nah, I’m max betting Chase Hooper this week. Shooter’s shoot.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
Can the “Frankie deserves a title shot” argument just fucking stop. He does not and it’s not really an argument. If he goes and beats someone in the top 5 ok. But getting KO’d in 1 by Ortega and beating cub by decision isn’t nearly enough in my mind.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
6 months
3u Jack Hermansson +180 and +228 💦 Perennial top 10 at +200 against a guy whose best win is Razak Alhassan.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Pretty heavy slate today. Excited to get after it. 3u Edgar +140 3u Edgar Decision Only +110 2.5u Michailidis +205 2u Villante +116 2u Osbourne -160 1u Williams +280 1u Williams/Garry over 1.5 -110 1u Burgos/Quarantillo under 2.5 +120 BOL everyone. 🍻
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
1 year
IMO Merab last night showcased a level of cardio and process that's never been seen in the octagon before. Not sure there's anyone that should be favored against him over 5 at this point.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
4u Maxim Grishin -165 💰
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
#UFC273 bets so far: 3u Kay Hansen +112 2u Aljamain Sterling +350 Other leans are Burns, Arce and Pichel. Still monitoring line movement on all. BOL degens!
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
4 months
Chris Weidman’s chin vs Bruno Silva’s defensive grappling is what happens when a stoppable force meets a moveable object.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Jack Hermansson landed 6.66 significant strikes per minute today. And attempted 16.66 per minute…those are elite output numbers. Chris Curtis should complain less and learn how to fight someone who won’t just stand stationary in front of him.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Lot of people are going to hype this main event, and yea I’m excited for it. But think Colby is probably just gonna land 10 takedowns, do his thing and cruise to a comfy 49-46.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
@tajikbay Cash out is the right move
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
2u Calvin Kattar +190 💰 Should have been bigger but thought a plus money live entry might be there. Line was nutty. Giga is solid but was basically drawing dead on a decision and fighting one of the most durable fighters in UFC history.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
1.5u Hermansson +100💰 LOL at Curtis talking shit because he still hasn't figured out how to cut off the cage after 40 pro fights.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
5 years
@Fight_Expert @bokamotoESPN Conor should fight the winner of Gaethje/Cowboy. That makes by far the most sense to me.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
2 years
Kamaru is going to wreck Leon 🤷‍♂️
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Sweep City. 🧹 🧹 🧹
@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Loads of CLV this week...hopefully it pays off. WAR Bruno. BOL everyone 🍻 #UFCVegas22
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
2.5u Martinez +162 💰 Turns out Jonathan Martinez is a bit better than Josh Huber and Ricky Steele…who would have thought it.
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@MmaFawkes
John Stargaryen
3 years
Amazing. BE once again trying to tie the UFC to something that has literally nothing to do with them at all and was reported AFTER the sponsorship agreement was signed. Literally zero context here. Imagining covering MMA and rooting for it to fail…what a world.
@BloodyElbow
Bloody Elbow
3 years
UFC partner DraftKings’ accused of ties to black market gaming, money laundering and organized crime
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