Happppppy
#UFC304
Fight Day! Main card starting at 3am UK time could make for some suepr weird scenes....but great vcard in store. Thoughts Below:
Edwards 75% (3.2u Edwards -213): Hard to take too too much from the first fight, but ultimately think Belal may need back takes to
So tony Ferguson, who cut weight just prove he could, is going to rehydrate and then cut again three weeks later? That doesn’t seem like the healthiest idea...
Large
#UFCVegas86
slate for me today. Got the butterflies going hard over how much I have on the table 😅 Quick Breakdown below:
4.5u Rodolfo Vieira avg price -114: Big two-way fight in the community this week. Bit nerve wracking with how different the opinions are here. But one
Petr Yan is either the best or second best bantamweight in the world....and is currently near pick'em with a guy who was an underdog to Ricky Simon two fights ago 👀
I keep waffling on Gaethje/Cerrone. I really don’t think Cowboy can standup to that pressure for long...at the same time, Gaethje is so fucking hittable.
Derrick Lewis has won 76% of his fights in the UFC at 16-5. I’m not sure there’s anyone else in the entire history of the organization to have 20+ fights, be over .500, and post striking and grappling metrics as poor as Lewis. It’s honestly unbelievable.
Betting on either Tim Elliott or Edson Barboza is not for the feint of heart. Betting on both as dogs on the same card some would call crazy. Alas, I am that crazy.
Apparently there’s this dark part of MMA Twitter filled with Bones and DC are “overrated” furthers who all seem to think every 125er is more talented than every 205er.
PSA: Colby is going to get fucking smashed next weekend. Not because he’s a MAGA hat wearing clown, but because Usman is better, full-stop.
If you’re backing him it’s because you either love the shtick or your blinded by all the money he’s made you over the last few years.
Steve Erceg is 3-0 in the UFC....his opponents' combined UFC records are 10-11.
Alexandre Pantoja is 11-3 in the UFC. his opponents' combined UFC records are 85-58.
Food for thought.
#UFC301
Healthy slate for
#UFCVegas50
today:
3u Damon Jackson +134
2u Karl Roberson +104
1.5u Bruno Silva +175
1u Trevin Jones +135
.5u Marlon Moraes +235
.5u Alex Caceres +240
1.5u Robertson/Aldrich over 2.5 -115
1u Cannetti/Moutinho under 2.5 +120
BOL folks 📈
HAPPY
#UFC299
DAY!! Banger card, pumped to watch, and my biggest betting slate of the year. Could go disastrously....or could be amazing! We'll see. Some quick breakdowns and where I capped each fight below:
O'Malley 67% (.5u O'Malley dec +125): Initially had bet O'Malley -200.
I’m a man of simple tastes. Enjoy hanging out with my wife and kid, a medium rare steak, a nice red wine and cashing the occasional +350.
1u on Rakic by decision +350 💰
So for everyone saying TJ ruined his legacy (I agree btw), what’s your take on Jon Jones? Because I don’t think you can simultaneously say he did and say Jon is the 🐐
Never thought I’d see the day when people were dying to parlay anyone against Aljamain Sterling at -450. But here we are, Petr Yan is apparently the easiest bet of the week. There’s zero chance that the fight could play out any differently than the first time. It is known.
Me: I’ll never bet contenders again, I’ll never bet contenders again, I’ll never bet contenders again...
Me Next June: I really think there’s serious value on this 2-0 Australian chick on Tuesday night...
2.16u McGee -108 💰
Said it on the pod this week, but unless Court’s age finally caught up with him, there was not a single area of this fight where Ramiz had an edge. Cool to cash the first ticket of the year.
Maybe I’m completely misreading this, but I don’t see much reason to think Cejudo can duplicate Garbrandt’s gameplan. In fact, when we have seen him sit back and not look to pressure, he’s generally gotten eaten up at distance.
#UFC249
@BestFightPicks
Jones. Easy to forget after the Reyes and Santos fights. But no one really tested peak Jones. Even the first Gus fight, while it was a great fight, thought Jones won pretty clear.
First
#UFC304
bet 2.5u Curtis Blaydes +317
Price is absolutely insane. Had Blaydes near pick in the first fight and obviously got super lucky. Do think Aspinall logically should be a favorite as Blaydes isn't really reliable to wrestle and Aspinall is super fast and hits as hard
Fact: Cowboy is the easiest matchup of all the potential fights Conor could take.
Fact: EVERYONE will buy it, even if you’d rather see him fight Gaethje, let’s be real.
Fact: If he fights Masvidal next it’ll be the most hyped fight of 2020...including Ferguson/Khabib.
I have 4u on Jared Gordon this weekend across +140 and +125. Personally think he’s going to tune Joe up anywhere the fight goes. Have him at 65% myself in this spot.
Not financial advice.
I have mixed feelings about this
#UFC267
card. On a lot of dogs that I think are certainly value at their price, but also think most are likely to lose.
3u Jacoby (-130/-102)
3u Simon (+140)
1.55u Burgos (-155)
1u Ortega (-165)
.75u Penne (+120)
2u Penne/Ducote GTD (-165)
Likely will add a unit on Dwight Grant
BOL everyone! 🍻
#UFCLongIsland
2.09u Jandiroba -139 💰
1u under 2.5 rounds +150 💰
1.6u Lemos under 57.5 Sig Strikes 💰
2u Virna under 49.5 Sig Strikes 💰
1u Peterson over 0.5 takedowns/Virna under 49.5 Sig Strikes +180 💰
Official plays for tonight:
4u Jared Gordon (+140 and +125)
1u Antonina Shevchenko +180
1u Stephanie Egger (-105)
2u Santos/Walker doesn’t start round 4 (-168)
.5u Shevchenko wins by KO (+800)
Also have leans to Mullarkey and Cirkunov but no bets.
LFG everyone. BOL 🥂
Did I get reverse swept on Saturday? Yup. Was it the first time? Nope. Will it be the last time? Probably not. Am I deterred? Nah, I’m max betting Chase Hooper this week. Shooter’s shoot.
Can the “Frankie deserves a title shot” argument just fucking stop. He does not and it’s not really an argument. If he goes and beats someone in the top 5 ok. But getting KO’d in 1 by Ortega and beating cub by decision isn’t nearly enough in my mind.
Pretty heavy slate today. Excited to get after it.
3u Edgar +140
3u Edgar Decision Only +110
2.5u Michailidis +205
2u Villante +116
2u Osbourne -160
1u Williams +280
1u Williams/Garry over 1.5 -110
1u Burgos/Quarantillo under 2.5 +120
BOL everyone. 🍻
IMO Merab last night showcased a level of cardio and process that's never been seen in the octagon before. Not sure there's anyone that should be favored against him over 5 at this point.
#UFC273
bets so far:
3u Kay Hansen +112
2u Aljamain Sterling +350
Other leans are Burns, Arce and Pichel. Still monitoring line movement on all. BOL degens!
Jack Hermansson landed 6.66 significant strikes per minute today. And attempted 16.66 per minute…those are elite output numbers. Chris Curtis should complain less and learn how to fight someone who won’t just stand stationary in front of him.
Lot of people are going to hype this main event, and yea I’m excited for it.
But think Colby is probably just gonna land 10 takedowns, do his thing and cruise to a comfy 49-46.
2u Calvin Kattar +190 💰
Should have been bigger but thought a plus money live entry might be there. Line was nutty. Giga is solid but was basically drawing dead on a decision and fighting one of the most durable fighters in UFC history.
Amazing. BE once again trying to tie the UFC to something that has literally nothing to do with them at all and was reported AFTER the sponsorship agreement was signed. Literally zero context here.
Imagining covering MMA and rooting for it to fail…what a world.