Senior Fellow
@Diplomacy_Peace
. Military historian and strategist. Professor SAIS, AAP, US Naval War College, Centro Estudios Superiores Navales, DF (24 years).
This horror has the dreamy, sleepwalking feeling of the July Crisis in 1914. No one can seem to get a hold of it, and everyone is focused on their raging, hortatory declarations of principle, as it drifts sublimely in all its floating enormity, day-by-day, toward catastrophe.
What makes the Luttwak philippic interesting is not what Luttwak is saying — But rather the extraordinary distance outside of actual reality that he and the Western courtier class now inhabits.
[Ed has been a friend and colleague: Which is to say, I have known him for 40 years,
@witte_sergei
Peter Zeihan is the anointed wedge to collapse pragmatic analysis in American today:
1)Analysis that supports and defends elite preferences
2)Analysis that advances personal status at Court
3)Analysis that imposes elite authority over electorates
4)Analysis that stifles our voice
When Armies Break. Listen to the longer prognosis for Ukraine
@batchelorshow
"What makes for defeat in a war? One of the most critical elements that will lead to defeat is an army breaking. Because when armies break, wars end. Here we don’t mean individual armies … but rather
Germanicus to Gaius: “What we are looking at is a war that is in its later stages. If [the offensive] is continued … and UKR brings in its last best forces, there is not going to be a UKR army by the end of the summer, and that will mean Russia will have a free hand to do
@Culture_Crit
Pierrefonds, beautiful and visually mighty, was the dreamy vanity project of Louis-Napoléon, bestowed on an eager Viollet-le-Duc. If anything, it was the precursor of another, more contemporary vanity project, the Disney Castle! A 19th cent. imagineer for a 20th cent. marketeer!
The Byzantine Commonwealth changed by life. I was in Deno Geanakopolos' – a fantastic man – course at Yale in 1971, where I discovered Obolensky. All my thinking was transfigured – for the better! He is still with me, urging me on to speak truth where no establishment lackey can!
If you really think you understand the dynamics of cultural decline I want you to consider that this is how the legendary Byzantinist Dimitri Obolensky was treated by undergraduates at *Oxford* in *1954*
@SnailUnity
Richard Nixon is, hands down, the most unappreciated American Imperial Leader. He was – in the Deep State Media – universally reviled, and yet he was perhaps the smartest and most capable leader this nation had after Eisenhower. His defenestration has been the undoing of America!
After Bakhmut, a terrible escalation looms: Pressed by Gaius, Germanicus replied: “NATO and the United States have crossed a number of so-called “Red Lines” – and the reason in that it is the US and NATO that seek to humble Russia and bring it to its knees and perhaps even topple
The war-termination phase is now unfolding, and all negotiation will be unbending: "For Russia to be in a confident strategic situation it would have to restore the fullness of Novorossiya, which would mean all the lands that were never Ukrainian, Odessa and Kharkov and the lands
Do you want – A full and total synthesis of our ultimate domestic and foreign war fate? This is – pardon me – an actual must listen [tell me if I am wrong!]:
"The American ruling class is very close to losing societal and political cohesion in the us
@nonregemesse
When Henry V was made in 1944, Britons could at last see light at the end of the tunnel, and longed for a victorious 'sunlit' future. Today's cine elite embraces the dark loveliness of its own self-adoring nihilism, indenturing the Past – our heritage – to ratify its black truth.
A full update on the upcoming UKR counteroffensive and its consequences: "The United States, by creating along with NATO this overarching narrative of inevitable UKR victory and the downfall of RUS, has put the American Imperial Court in a quandary, in the sense that NATO has
This is a powerful post. It argues very simply that "We have met the enemy and they are us." I would just add this inflection to what awaits us in the next war, and what we are not prepared to handle: "Why You Should Be Alarmed by the Wounds I Treated in Ukraine"
‼️ Bleeding the Beast
I am inclined to believe that, in the absence of some truly egregious escalation on the part of the US/NATO, the Russians are more than willing to continue to fight this war on the strategically idiotic terms it has long-since assumed: the west expends its
Read this. False Réalités – as peddled by the so-called West [meaning, the Empire and its vassals] – are clearly orchestrating another world war to lock in political power. How to tame resistant electorates? Naked truth: A new war, just like 1914, will force ruling class control
NEW from me: as if on cue, AIPAC funded pols, many of whom sat on the sidelines as tens of thousands of Gazans perished and starved, rush to battle stations to declare US war on Iran for 'disproportionate' highly choreographed, limited attack on Israel.
@daily_romania
This is how an American ruling class and its organs in the imperial court treat attentive vassals! Shame on the empire that treats its clients with such disrespect. Hence, such regal enterprises will always founder: As imperial narcissism ditches all empathy for loyal underlings!
@imetatronink
This is the sort of analysis Americans need to hear. You are also spot on: It is 560,000 poised to strike. You have been a clear-eyed voice in the most maleficent propaganda campaign ever waged–By the "good guys" Bravo Will!
@uhd2020
Barsoom! [I sloughed through all the responses, and was a bit disheartened to see our literary heritage — Edgar Rice Burroughs — i.e., pre-Bradbury and Arnold, forgotten. There was a bit from the John Carter movie, but Barsoom was uncited. Alas!]
Pressed by Gaius to put D-Day, the Sixth of June, side-by-side with the launch of Ukraine's fateful offensive, and throw-of-the-die:
"D-Day elevated and raised America to heights never before experienced by Americans, because of the Christlike sacrifice of thousands of Americans
Arta Moeini argues that the US, all on its own, has undone its sacred paradigm of a universal liberal moral order, in two ways: 1) In exposing the "rules based order" as an arbitrary, self-serving tool of American high politics, and 2) In demanding that our rules are always right
Dénouement beckons: This is the unraveling tragedy of the Ukraine. Cunningly manufactured by the United States, cruelly exploited to the very destruction of a helpless people, ruthlessly driving them into the pitiable purgatory that is the summit of
Daniel Davis asked, concerning UKR: "Why continue fighting a war they can't win?" My reply:
"This is a truth almost impossible to fathom, yet it is true nonetheless: The entirety of UKR strategy is a PSYOP on NATO to keep the money flowing, and to somehow leverage 'The Alliance'
This is journalism at its best, for it lays bare and clear not only its immediate subject, but the true form of the larger whole: Not the Military-Industrial Complex alone, but the whole American system — Which is Corporate Oligarchy. These corporations' Counts and Dukes are the
Ceremony establishes legitimacy.
Legitimacy establishes authority.
Authority establishes power.
Ceremony is the enactment of the sacred.
Ceremony is not an accessory. It is the thing itself.
I have to admit, this whole ceremony was impressive.
In an age of unbound egalitarianism where few monarchs remain on their thrones (and those that still do in the West, even the Pope of Rome, are only "installed" like corporate CEOs) the Brits have somehow managed to keep all
'Germanicus' transcribed his conversation with 'Gaius' from this past Sunday. Here is the main substance. If you like, I can post Part 2 tomorrow, and Part 3 on Saturday.
Germanicus: Good evening, Gaius. The Arc of the war is now on a trajectory in very steep descent toward its
Titus Pullo is dead! In Caesar's De Bello Gallico, only two ordinary – Citizen – legionnaires were called out: Lucius Vorenus and Titus Pullo. Somehow, from pure Mystery and Magic, they were reincarnated so that we, poor Americans – who have lost our claim like Rome did when its
RAND's fascinating insight into how has become the USSR: Analysis all but impenetrable, all judgments must be inferred, official untruths preserved, nothing transparent, actual desired COA tentative timid & masked
@imetatronink
@witte_sergei
@KelleyBVlahos
@CarlZha
I am going to take a small – yet significant – issue with you Mr. Zha. The battle you reference was not simply a retreat: It was the first straight-up strategic defeat suffered by the United States in a complete campaign season since the Union's Fredericksburg offensive in 1862.
Will's lament on the hollowness of American power paces growing global awareness that the US is just another great power with limited abilities and a big appetite: How will American elites possibly accommodate their fall from grace? Hint: Regular Americans don't really care!
‼️ "The purported ability of the US to 'project power anywhere on the globe at a moment’s notice' is a meaningless fantasy in the context of anything more than launching a few dozen cruise missiles at a country that lacks the capacity to shoot back."
Since 2/24/22, there have been but a handful of voices — maybe not oracular or prophetic, yet still prescient — speaking of true things. Things that will be, that we refuse to see. Think of Will Schryver as a Herald: Who sounds a metamorphosis in our brittle world. Listen to him!
@GeromanAT
Interred in UKR/NATO propaganda are terrible, deeper truths (if you wish to go there). British sources also identify 50,000 RUS dead (and another ~20,000 from prisoner KIA to LPR/DPR earlier on). What does this tell us? It tells us that RUS casualty evacuation and prompt
7. How does it look to Russians — after Tigers and Panthers — to see Leopard tanks from Germany attacking them? The Iron Cross is now a Russian war meme. Every escalation more tightly unifies Russian national will, while cutting away at NATO confidence and morale.
@imetatronink
Here he was wrong: Not in true intent, but rather in human outcome. The former Confederacy won the guerrilla war after 1865, and cemented their victory in 1876, and for a century after. In Vietnam and Afghanistan, and in the heart of Sunni Arab Islam, our cruelty and terror has
"I have a more profound lack of trust in my government than ever in my life — and interestingly, it is not their deliberate deceit that I worry about, it is how they handled intelligence from UKR. When it comes to American relations with UKR, I cannot imagine that Americans, who
6. The first European Union [12 direct participants, plus volunteers from several others] invaded Russia in 1941 and was crushed. How does the second European Union imagine a better outcome this time around?
The place to which we have come:
"Right after 9/11 you know popular neocon commentators like Robert Kaplan would go out there and say — as he did on television and in a book — 'We need to be like Tiberius: We need a 'Pagan Ethos.' We need to go out there and do what the Romans
He will always be my hero, forever, as he will be, eternally, to his soldiers; as he was also, to Ike. If you want to make of a brother citizen, a bitter and relentless enemy, then you have well succeeded in your plan.
They took pictures of this because they wanted you to feel angry and hopeless at what they were doing.
They want your forefathers hanged, drawn, and quartered, but they’ll settle for dismembered statues (for now).
@AndrewJCuff
Imagine living in an epoch, and in a civilization, where the Leader (aka Basileus) actually wrote imperial strategy manuals in his own hand — I know Ouranos was only Doméstikos tôn Scholôn (think, Chairman, JCS), but still — Such contrast to our unlettered oligarchic corporatism
As it was once before, in half-forgotten myth, with Virginia v. John Brown, Ālea iacta est (The die is cast). Mere months now stand between us and the maelstrom
Half the country is going to suffer a greater loss in our institutions after this. Even if Trump is truly, in a metaphysical sense, guilty of these crimes, the charges were so weak, and the trial was so slanted against him, that many people are going to say to hell with it all.
5. Not only did Biden forget — never go to war with a great power when you are on the verge of civil war at home — he recklessly plunged into this war in the wholly misguided belief that becoming a "war president" would save his administration and ensure his reelection.
Had a fascinating
#DeepDive
with historian Dr. Michael Vlahos
@Michalis_Vlahos
on his latest article: why do armies break in war - and is Ukraine or Russia at risk? He posits the Ukraine Army is in far more danger than commonly understood.
@KelleyBVlahos
Ms. Vlahos gives us a grain of sand refracting the "Bodyguard of Lies" that have controlled Americans for 15 months: A breathtaking assault on our reality that Orwell could only conjure in his mind's eye. Our Oceania's Big Lie grinds us down everyday. Be brave, Americans!
@imetatronink
Worse: We cannot fight another war. We can only fight — like a good 'first person shooter' video game — vicarious battles: Wherein we are fulfilled through the blood sacrifice, for us, of changeling peoples. They bleed out for our ecstatic rush!
4. The US fought a Cold War for forty years — and the Soviet Union fell. Biden fights Russia for a year, and NATO faces strategic defeat and economic calamity. Check out my conversations with COL Macgregor here:
@culturaltutor
He did not paint Nature – but rather, the wonder he felt in its presence. 'Seeing' and 'Feeling' should never be separated in art: Even the great box camera photographers could inject their wonder, even in a black and white image, like Ansel Adams. Yet I would argue that the
@UpdatingOnRome
Unsurprisingly, the Mexican is more dramatic, the Spanish more aristocratic. By the 3rd century, Spanish was already emerging as a recognizable variation of Latin.
As Arta describes so eloquently, those wars to sustain the hegemon return home to undermine the hegemon. Remember: The 'hegemon' is not a thing. It is people: The people of a ruling elite desperate to hold on to world power in order to hold on to power at home — undermining both!
So in a spell of a few days, we have courted nuclear war with Russia & almost lost a presidential candidate for 🇺🇦.
Ukraine & its loyalists, as propagandized by the corporate media & the Beltway, now pose a direct threat to America's national security and its election integrity.
I have the book, Peachy, do you? Takeaway this:
"The approach goes beyond the classroom and operates across all levels of society, embedding counterextremism education into a variety of mainstream places, from local theater and arts programs to football teams, concerts, work with
Responding to Gaius: "The [Ukrainian] Army is now being flung against a remarkably dense series of defenses. put together by Russia, in Zaporizhzhia, that are something that no army should try and take on. It is quite comparable to say the defense's that Austria Hungary had in
From my second segment with Gaius
@batchelorshow
:
“You are seeing the emergence of a Eurasian community in economic but also in military terms, and this is not conducive to the goals of the NATO warmongers. Their knee-capping of Russia … would involve
@LandsknechtPike
Spinola pulled out a 'half win' for Spain in the Netherlands: Keeping what is now Belgium (and more) plus Luxembourg as Crown Catholic. He did that through a subtly Italian sleight-of-hand: Called the 'Siege of Breda.' His ritual victory at Breda permitted 'El Rey Planeta' to at
Gaius and Germanicus address our very real imperial overextension today–Like Rome: Dacia then (270-350), UKR now–Ethnic cleansing, population trans: Like Rome then, like NATO now–Above all, the strategic retreat!
@KelleyBVlahos
@AndrewBeckUSA
@imetatronink
@eyeslasho
The only issue — and I mean the only issue — is an inescapable thought — and that would be the prospect of regular inspection, cleaning, and lubrication!
Superb summary of a near-year of war — Unimpeachable dynamics and agglutinant mythologies both — a thread to partly stitch up a reality fabric torn by this storm of Orwellian-Oceanian agitprop — Ophthalmic drops maybe to open eyes wide shut
@JimBovard
@KelleyBVlahos
@ArtaMoeini
Response 🧵
It was I that characterized Peter Zeihan as a clueless
#EmpirePropagandist
clown.
In any case, as I read your posts, it is evident to me that your perspective on this war has been substantially informed by the very same species of propaganda Zeihan echoes.
1/18
Pressed by Gaius
@batchelorshow
Germanicus offers these omens:
"[The counteroffensive] is a last shot ... what the US is insisting is that Ukraine conduct this offensive ... in order to allow NATO a kind of, if not graceful exit, then a face-saving exit,
An absolute must take from COL Macgregor – Frame-setting context for RUS-NATO War dynamics, and the path ahead. He also explains why the war' phasing has moved more slowly than what the two of us expected [24:00-34:00 ] in our Dec. YouTube conversation. Yet
@ArmchairW
That continuum was torn apart a year ago — for everyone to see — and yet we 'heroically' denied the evidence of 'our lying eyes.' A society capable of denying critical analytic thinking will obdurately stare defeat in the face and declare this victory — and then ignominiously die
This man, this tortured, persecuted, and yet unbowed: An unbroken man, is a unwavering voice of truth in this tragic and terrible war of venal unreason. How can we help you, Gonzalo? How debased is our own country?
Right now, I'm about to try to get out of Ukraine, and seek political asylum in Hungary.
Either I'll cross the border and make it to safety, or I'll be disappeared by the Kiev regime.
This is what's happened to me over the past three months.
1/25
Responding to Gauguin's relentless question: D'où venons-nous ? Que sommes-nous ? Où allons-nous ? [Where do we come from? What are we? Where are we going?] — Regarding my own once-beloved country:
@KelleyBVlahos
@JimBovard
@JamesPPinkerton
@johnrobb
Navies give you permission to prosecute endless imperial wars with small expeditionary armies — which in turn leads to the false belief that you can therefore directly take on and defeat big, continental armies. The inevitable outcome, for us, is now becoming — even as proxy —
Also from The Heart of Darkness:
"Once, I remember, we came upon a man-of-war anchored off the coast. There wasn’t even a shed there, and she was shelling the bush. It appears the French had one of their wars going on thereabouts. Her ensign dropped limp like a rag; the muzzles
‼️ The Heart of Darkness Visits Africa
Mistah Kurtz-he dead
A penny for the Old Guy
So ... the inimitable Victoria the Hutt paid a visit to Niger.
Bear in mind that an unknown number of PMC Wagner forces are already there, and are at least "advising" the leaders of
The galaxy of lies that enshroud our nation should be consumed by dark matter and black holes. Yet this will never happen if they are not constantly–and publicly–called out. The beautiful
@KelleyBVlahos
does just that supernova style. A must watch if you crave that truth-boost!
Delighted to have
@KelleyBVlahos
from
@QuincyInst
on
#DeepDive
to analyze the latest in the House Speaker saga as well as foreign policy positions of GOP candidates for prez. As always, Kelley has some great, unique insights!
The United States – its ruling and courtier classes – is simply not prepared for the superior Russian military that will emerge from this war. It still clings to the soapy boundary layer of its beltway bubble, and the overweening narcissism that keeps it aloft – for one more day!
Cannon fodder to the front. Elite troops in reserve as a counterattack force. Russian troops are using traditional Russian doctrine -- and it may be working. My latest for Insider
3. The French monarchy under Louis XVI ran a better proxy war — defeating Britain and raising up the US — than USGOV under Biden: Yet Louis' victory led right to his fall! What great good do you suppose would come from Biden's defeat?
Gaius begins a conversation with Germanicus about elections in wartime. We begin to explore the historical dynamics of what looms, potentially this November, as another great crisis moment in American Life.
Gaius: How do you conduct an election in wartime? Germanicus, you've
@Babygravy9
Sorry Guys, There is just too much provenance here. 'Back to the Future' it seems, means 'Back to the Pleistocene'! Embrace the primitive, with AI ushering us, gently, into the cave. At least there will be a roaring fire!
Calgacus: "they make a desert ['a solitude'] and call it peace." Foreign Affairs has posted a fatuous piece (11/24/23) by a Brit flack: "The Russian Way of War," which makes it clear that current US/UK strategy is to clinch a "frozen" ceasefire and then invest hard in rebuilding
With news breaking that the Ukrainians are moving towards a final, total mobilization against Russia - and me regretting I didn't post about it yesterday when I had a hunch on the matter - something occurred to me. I've underestimated the Russians before. What if I still am?⬇️
"If we are afraid we self-deter." We know that narrative rules reality. Hence if we declare Russia to be evil and weak, and to be brought down, then we simply discard old truths of nuclear deterrence. What was axiomatic we now wish away as simple fear. We are our own Wishmasters.
🇪🇪🇷🇺🚨‼️
“Fear of nuclear war is a trap of self-deterrence. Don't fall for that trap.”
— Estonian PM Kallas
Balts are afraid to have a strong and angry Russia at the border and would rather see the world burn.
Like a chihuahua attacking a pit bull, suicidal.
Second Sunday [1:7] conversation with Gaius. He asks about NATO's future:
Gaius: I'm John Batchelor here with Germanicus, Michael Vlahos. I'm Gaius. We're in Londinium. Kiev is a straightforward problem. Zelensky loses authority. They go to the polls, there's a new president,
Here is a video of a talk I gave on the 80th anniversary of a battle, to Arlington, Virginia, and its sister city, the glorious town of Reims:
"D-Day: The Sixth of June. America's Missa Solemnis"
Here are three excerpts from its conclusion:
AFTER
You can now see Gaius and Germanicus on YouTube:
Here is an excerpt from this week's conversation. I am talking about the mythopoeic dimension of the shooting in Butler, PA., and the nature of heroic apotheosis and ascendance – in History, and Today:
@KKriegeBlog
At least he was in Constantinople at the culmination of the Tanzimat reforms and the first Ottoman Constitution. He also brokered a deal so that American archaeologists could work in the empire!