I was conflicted about this given my classical liberal priors but reluctantly I've come to the conclusion that a ban on short-stay visas for Russian citizens is in order. /1
🧵Viktor Orbán is threatening to block 🇺🇦's accession talks & the €50 billion in aid for 2024-2027. He may change his mind if 🇭🇺's own 🇪🇺 funds get unfrozen, reportedly. It's a mistake to give in to the blackmail. /1
(pic courtesy of
@dennikN
's Shooty)
These next couple of days will be informative about whether we've finally got our act together. If by the end of this week there are still Russian ambassadors left in Western capitals, unexpelled; if airlines operate flights to Moscow; if Russian banks have access to SWIFT; /1
Vaccinating the whole world quickly is technologically feasible, inexpensive, and guaranteed to galvanize public opinion in support of the United States against our autocratic foes. Let's do it. My latest for
@BulwarkOnline
.
Will CPAC attendees in Dallas be bothered by Orbán's racism, kowtowing to China, or sucking up to Russia? Sadly, I suspect we know the answer. My latest in
@thedispatch
.
@ebruenig
@conor64
If this is to compare ideologies at their historic worst, shouldn’t relevant far-left examples include Holodomor, Cultural Revolution, and the Lubyanka basement?
(Not saying those are ‘major threats’ to America but symmetrically it seems hard to see Dachau & Verdun as such.)
One, there were >170k border crossings into Finland in July alone. How many of those were GRU/FSB? We do know Russia is up to all kinds of mischief in the EU; why help it? Two, actions have consequences: you can't have your government wage a war of aggression & expect to /2
It is time for a Schengen short-stay visa ban & revocation of existing short-stay visas. Ideally done in concert with other Western power. Read the rest in your favourite mid-market newspaper. /8 END
to Russia. I mean, we tried it and it failed. This is not the 1950s. Russians have social media, VPNs, opposition outlets (however embattled). They spent the past 30 years travelling freely to the West. The onus of seeing what kind of regime they're living under is on them. /7
enjoy amenities of the civilized world, e.g. tourism & shopping in the Schengen area. Yes, the West remained open to those fleeing communist Eastern Europe during the Cold War & there should be paths to asylum available for Russians fleeing Putin. /3
The notion that our openness to Russian travel will somehow open Russian minds to the true character of their regime is no more plausible than the idea that our economic openness to Russian money will tame Russian econ elites & export democratic capitalism /6
We should also encourage brain drain by offering long-stay, emigration opportunities to highly qualified, vetted individuals. *However*, what is the signal sent by availability of short-stay visas for Russians who come do their shopping in the EU? /4
After Wuhan Institute of Virology, the Ryanair hijacking is another illustration of the fact that the lack of accountable democratic institutions & rule of law in other countries actually matters to the West in a very direct & material way.
After some throat clearing, Orbán blames the war on "globalist leaders" and calls for a US-Russia bargain, over the heads of Ukrainians. Charming!
#CPAC
If you believe, on the day the world sees images from Bucha, that the central challenge facing the West today is wokeism, ‘LGBTQ ideology’, or ‘globalism’, then I’m afraid your idea of the West is distorted beyond repair.
Everything you wanted to know about how I’d become a target of Hungarian Government’s (or pro-Orban press? What’s difference, anyway?) bizarre undercover operation. My latest for
@bulwarkonline
No, Hungary is not a 'rinky-dink' country. In some ways, it is a success story of post-communist transitions, though increasingly troubled by its past, by polarizing culture wars, and by weakness of its institutions facilitating grotesque kleptocracy. /1
For one, there's absolutely nothing Orbán can do about those €50 billion in 🇺🇦 assistance. If aid doesn't get adopted by unanimity, it can still be cobbled together through a network of bilateral arrangements. /2
Why should the Kremlin enjoy a monopoly on grayzone & information warfare? In tomorrow’s
@telegraph
,
@ivanastradner
& I urge the West go on the offensive. 🇷🇺’s presidential ‘election’ next year is a great opportunity to destabilise the regime.
How about, instead of constantly reminding the world of what we're not willing to do & relying on cosmic justice to punish
#Putin
, we did a bit more of what we are supposedly willing and capable of doing? My latest in
@Quillette
.
Better still, this is would be a perfect subject for Enhanced Cooperation/Art. 20 TEU. Indeed, given Orbán's allegiances, why can't the EU treat *everything* 🇺🇦-related by default in this way -- excluding 🇭🇺 from the conversation instead of going through the acrimony of /3
It’s tempting to orientalize Slovakia after the assassination attempt on Robert Fico. But similar event is perfectly imaginable in the US context — and it’s not clear our institutions would cope with better than the Slovak will. My latest in
@BulwarkOnline
The issue with 'illiberal democracy' in
#Poland
&
#Hungary
is not that it's critical of Brussels & mass migration, but rather that it's authoritarian. My latest for
@ForeignPolicy
if there are any oligarch-owned yachts not seized by Western governments; if Germany is still planning to phase out nuclear power; and if Russian oil tankers continue to arrive at our ports & gas still flows; if billions worth of military assistance haven't arrived in Ukraine /2
trying to please the regime? 🇺🇦 needs more ammo, money, new sanctions against 🇷🇺? Fine, let coalitions of the willing do the work, not ask Budapest for permission. /4
etc. Not a silver bullet but time to heed Frank Underwood's advice: "If you don't like how the table is set, turn over the table." Orbán is a bad-faith actor and should be treated as a pariah, left out of key 🇪🇺 & transatlantic conversations, not being courted & accommodated. /7
he'll also find himself weakened if his patronage schemes start running out of other countries' money. In short, this week's Council is an opportunity to put the ogre of Budapest in his place. It would be a shame if 🇪🇺 leaders didn't take it. /9 end
If “as long as it takes” means less than 2 years, why should anyone ever trust anything that comes out of the mouth of any US leader? My latest in
@nypost
.
Perhaps best to give up hope of change in either Paris/Berlin and start working around them. Lots that CEE member states, 🇺🇸, other partners can do bring 🇺🇦 closer to the West. Paradoxically, something like Macron’s ‘European Political Community’ might be the best response to /1
then we'll know we're really screwed. We've limited our options to sanctions and military aid, for reasons I never quite bought. But in that case we're duty bound to arm Ukraine to the teeth & sanction Russia into stone age, depriving the country & its elites of any amenities /3
In the context of 🇺🇦 war, I've been cutting the current 🇵🇱 government more slack than others & have no dog in the election this fall, but the notion that
@radeksikorski
was a Putinversteher because he tried to engage with the Russians back in 2011 is beyond preposterous. /1
The 🇪🇺 can get there only by abandoning the community method as its default modus operandi. The added benefit is that with fewer opportunities for EU-level brinksmanship, Orbán will find it harder to project his inflated influence on fellow populist types worldwide. At home, /8
True, you can't move ahead with 🇺🇦accession talks that way. But even if Orbán said yes to those this week (unlikely), he'll have dozens of opportunities to stop the talks at a moment of his choosing once they get underway. I understand the symbolism /5
Slovakia's PM, Robert Fico, refused to join the Czech led ammo initiative for Ukraine. In 48 hours, Slovaks crowdfunded €1.5 million (and more is trickling in).
for 🇺🇦 but rather than elevating accession talks in a way that risks leaving 🇺🇦 in a decades-long limbo alla Western Balkans, coalitions of the willing -- with the support of the Commission -- could move ahead to help Ukraine to actually meet 🇪🇺 standards, join common projects /6
of modern, globalized life. Yes, there are ways around sanctions, not clear China will cooperate, &c. but there are ways to inflict a lot of pain, quickly, & signal that this is now a permanent state of affairs. It might hurt us a lot but that's the price of/4
#Poland
's president Duda is visiting
#Trump
at the White House tomorrow. Duda needs a campaign boost,
#Trump
wants to sell Hercules planes and get Poles to pay for additional US troops. While not unprecedented, this transactionalism is just bad. /1
According to
@gazetaprawnapl
's sources, Trump and Duda will tomorrow agree:
- 2,000 US troops to 🇵🇱 (double the planned number)
- Costs mostly covered by 🇵🇱
- Broader legal immunity for US troops than in Germany and Japan
- 5 C-130 Hercules aircraft for 🇵🇱
The Obama Administration treated NATO ally Hungary like North Korea – total cold shoulder. We’ve renewed important ties while urging respect for democratic norms.
#WalkAndChewGum
‘European unity’ is overrated. The
#EU
has to become comfortable with coalitions of the willing & functionally differentiated integration. My latest in
@ForeignPolicy
On Monday, I kept
@juliaioffe
on the phone for an hour blathering about Slovakia's election. In this excellent
@PuckNews
piece, she makes me sound almost coherent.
If Berlin fears uncontrolled escalation, then its demand that the US send its tanks as well makes no sense -- a joint US-German action would be *more escalatory* then sending a few Leopards now & perhaps some Abrams down the line. /1
Whatever one thinks of
#PiS
, it's very good to see Poland back in a leadership role in CEE and tempering some of its domestic excesses. My latest in
@SpecCoffeeHouse
@RachelRizzo
There should be one season taking place during the pandemic, with Emily eating breakfast cereal in her English basement in Columbia Heights, making only occasional trips to the nearby Target to stock up on the said cereal.
Bureaucracies often take on a life of their own and end up causing the very problems they were supposed to solve.
NIH was supposed to prevent pandemics, so it funded gain-of-function research, causing a pandemic.
NATO was supposed to prevent a war, so it expanded to Russia’s
He, like many Poles, saw the threat much earlier than other Europeans. When it made sense to talk to the Russians, he did so, like everyone else. And one important thing he did as well was to keep 🇵🇱 at the heart of European debates, not at its margins. If his successors /2
United States must be able to focus on more than just one foreign policy challenge at a time. 🇺🇦🇹🇼🇮🇱 all matter to America -- the idea that we must 'prioritize' is a false & self-defeating one. My latest in
@spectator
.
It is important that Europeans step up their support to 🇺🇦military. But is *even more important* that they take seriously 🇺🇦's ambition to have a real European future. Not in 20 years' time but within months. My latest in
@nypost
.
had done so as well, instead of hallucinating about German reparations and phantom threats from Brussels, maybe Europe as a whole would have been better prepared for what came last year. /3
If conservatives continue to rationalize and excuse autocrats who pay lip service to conservative values, they deserve (and eventually will be confined to) a place in the dustbin of history. My latest for
@CapX
, ahead of
#Orban
's visit to Washington.
When Fidesz types are confronted about Orbán's affinity for Russia, they mention Germany, NS2, & Schröder. That's not just whataboutism but also result of Hu's ability to hide behind Germany, helped by years 'strategic patience'. My latest in
@WSJopinion
As per
@h_david_baer
's excellent
@BulwarkOnline
piece, he's clearly imagining himself at the table with the big boys. In reality Hungary would be the first country that would get screwed if such dealmaking became the norm.
On today's
#EasternFrontPod
,
@MBielieskov
tells us about 🇺🇦's grand stategy, trade-off between operational/tactical needs and politial objectives, & shares his shopping list for 🇺🇦 military with us. A great episode!
In Wisconsin 49K people voted for a Republican House candidate down ballot but DID NOT vote for Trump.
Meanwhile, 64K people voted for Biden and did NOT vote for a Democrat house candidate.
Also, 14,952 people DID NOT vote for a house candidate and just voted for Prez.
Ok.
OK, so what are we doing, as collective West, to peel Georgia off Russia's orbit at a time when 80 percent of Georgians want closer ties with the EU? Alas, the question answers itself, I argue in my most recent
@Telegraph
piece.
Been watching Season 3 of Occupied. The single most unrealistic feature of the show is the muscular role played by the EU. "EU-negotiated peace treaty", "EU peacekeepers", EU pushing Norway into disarming its border patrols, etc. I know it's fiction but it ought to be believable.
“Cyprus has warned peers it won’t sign on to an EU proposal to sanction dozens of officials in Belarus over that country’s contested presidential election, unless member states agree to clamp down on Turkey”
Membership in the
#EU
enabled the best and brightest to just leave (in past decade alone, Hungary lost .25 million of its population). As the highest per capita recipient of EU funds, Hungary has become a playground for politically connected 'entrepreneurs' /4
emotionally in the United States, its founding ideals, & its future. This turn, in my late 30s & pretty internationalist in my views, surprised me a little. A long way of saying America is pretty awesome & I hope to do my best to help it stay that way. Happy July 4! ♥️🇺🇸🥳 2/2
I don't understand why the remaining 26 didn't seize the moment to also approve a truckload of other stuff Orbán hates (€50 billion for 🇺🇦, sanctions on Russian officials, moratorium on 🇭🇺 funds...) and then present him with fait accompli when he got back to the room.
I was genuinely honoured to join
@Telegraph
’s excellent Ukraine Today podcast today. I hope my ramblings, two hours after a delayed transatlantic flight, made at least a bit of sense. Thanks for having me,
@FrancisDearnley
and colleagues!
Short of a shooting war, it is hard to imagine a more clear-cut case of using hard power against the EU & NATO than what Lukashenko & Putin have been up to this year. Alas, Western response doesn't quite rise to the occasion. My latest for
@BulwarkOnline
.
EU needs a laser-sharp focus on expanding the available vaccine supply. Ham-fisted export restrictions or waging a war on Astra Zeneca will not help; being willing to throw a lot more money at the problem will. My latest in
@spectator
.