Maxwell Tabarrok @MTabarrok Twitter profile

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Maxwell Tabarrok

9 days

High prices during emergencies aren't gouging - they're bounties for desperately needed goods. Like a sheriff offering a big reward to catch a dangerous criminal, these prices incentivize the entire economy to rush supplies where they're most needed.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 months

insane that AI art has the "communist, prison abolitionist" indie artists fighting to extend Disney and Nintendo's intellectual property

evan loves worf

@esjesjesj

2 months

This man is about to lose billions on lawsuits

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 months

I really dislike this argument. A law does not need to apply to lots of people to be unjust or important. For example, you wouldn't react to outcry over internment with: "Median Americans when they find out about a law that only applies if you're Japanese?!?!"

James Medlock

@jdcmedlock

2 months

Median income earners when they find out about a tax that kicks in if you have $100,000,000

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 months

@jdcmedlock Board games are zero sum, but economic resources are not

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Rome had centuries of per capita income growth, advances in hydraulics, metallurgy, agriculture, transportation, and stable governance that respected property rights But they never industrialized Why not? What was the binding constraint on a Roman industrial revolution?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 month

Everyone agrees that a law which made it illegal to quit a job would be ridiculous and wrong Why do so many people treat this differently? No one should be forced into a labor contract they don't want, regardless of which side they're on.

Jordan Zakarin

@jordanzakarin

1 month

Huge news: The NLRB today ruled that Starbucks illegally closed all three stores in Ithaca. The agency ordered that those stores be re-opened, with the unionized staff re-hired and given 16 months of backpay. This is why Starbucks is suing to destroy the NLRB.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

1. The superior economics of electric cars will lead them to become the default in ~20 years 2. Govts will ban ICE once electric is already much more popular 3. The history books will say "Until governments banned ICE, unregulated free markets killed millions via air pollution"

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

@zeta_globin Never heard of this guy in my life, and then:

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

The environmentalist taboo against carbon removal makes sense if you view climate change as punishment for sinful gluttony rather than a technology problem. The only appropriate resolution to sin is self sacrifice. Getting around the punishment with tech makes the sin worse

Timothy B. Lee

@binarybits

1 year

The taboo against carbon removal among environmentalists never made sense to me so I’m glad to see it making progress.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

BREAKING: Musk's Starship Out of Fuel and Covered in Red Dirt

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 days

Any other communities on reddit that like economics content? Just got banned from r/economics for my post on unions...

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Taiwan isn't Arrakis It doesn't have some special advantage in semiconductor manufacturing that can't be replicated anywhere else We just sent the dude who knew how to do this stuff back there, so he did it there instead of here

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

3 months

The story of NVIDIA & TSMC is really a story about immigration. - With NVIDIA, we retained Jensen Huang and the US won big. - With TSMC, we failed to retain Morris Chang and the US lost out. Policymakers should be doing everything they can to keep superstar talent here.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

9 months

Accelerating these vaccines by one week saves >156,000 lives.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

Pharma: we've got a new medicine that has promising early results! FDA: You'll need a 10+ year clinical trial to conclusively prove that effect is real FDA: If we approve variant specific strains it will decrease vaccine trust/uptake. Evidence? Dude, just trust me.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

9 months

Surgery is the best argument against the FDA that no one brings up. A surgeon can debut a new procedure without safety or efficacy testing and the information problems in surgery are even more extreme than in medicine. Yet, surgery works well.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

I have great news to share! I got engaged!🥰 Thank you @lolzorcat for being my best friend and for making me the luckiest man alive!

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

@jasoncrawford explains the lack of Roman industrial revolution the same way one would explain the lack of Roman AI industry: They simply weren’t far enough along the tech tree

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

30 days

@pli_cachete Absence of evidence is evidence of absence only if you've looked really hard in the right ways for evidence of absence

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

This is a strange pattern. Baumol cost disease explanations predict that child care is expensive because the labor has high opportunity cost from more productive sectors. But then we should see high wages for childcare providers. What can explain high costs and low wages?

Derek Thompson

@DKThomp

1 year

Something deeply, deeply broken in a system where NYC child care is both - so expensive for buyers, that NYC families have to make $300k to make it affordable (<7% total hhld income) - so meager for providers, that a quarter of child care workers in the city live in poverty

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

14 days

Settling other planets is a cool achievement but I don't see how it can be profitable before Antarctica and deserts are settled/mined

Samswara

@samswoora

15 days

Woah didn’t know this

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Anyone working on genetic engineering chickens to be less concsious? Maybe working backwards is an easier way to get Beyond Meat.

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

3 years

Animal welfare is basically chicken welfare

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

elon's follow list kinda a blackpill ngl

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

28 days

Nvidia price has moved $0 since situational awareness came out 3.5 months ago

Leopold Aschenbrenner

@leopoldasch

5 months

Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 months

inb4: Capital gains taxes are not as bad as internment camps. My point is not comparing these things. My point is that saying a law doesn't apply to many people is a terrible argument for why it is good. Use other arguments to justify taxes, not shallow outgroup scapegoating

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

The fertility crisis puts the case for progress in a double bind The productivity that makes technological progress valuable also makes raising children expensive Sub-replacement fertility eventually stops economic growth, so progress is self defeating

The 2nd Demographic Transition

Opportunity cost and fertility

www.maximum-progress.com

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Wow San Francisco driving is getting so much safer! (p value < .01)

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

I cover 4 high quality RCTs on: debt cancellation (no effect) UBI (more leisure) homelessness relief (no effect) minimum wage (unemployment & regressive transfer) The results from these studies contradict the opinions of surveyed experts.

Four Randomized Control Trials In Economics

Randomized Control Trials have some drawbacks.

www.maximum-progress.com

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 month

Economics has inherited the tools of software engineering, but it's kept all the intellectual norms of 1970s academia This leads to embarrassingly widespread fraud, non-replication and p-hacking Econ should embrace the norms of software eng

Economics is a Field of Software Engineering

It should start acting like one

www.maximum-progress.com

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Understanding the unfulfilled potential of industrialized Rome counsels us to be more vigilant about pursuing opportunities for technological and economic progress in our own time, lest we too inadvertently delay the next step forward in human prosperity.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Historian @BretDevereaux notices that if Rome were to follow Britain's path, they would need to be extracting massive quantities of coal from waterlogged mines to power a booming, mechanized textile industry Devereaux claims that Rome had none of these precursors

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

Woah wth The soviets shot down a plane with 269 civilians in it and a US Congressmen in 1983?! Maybe we're just really lucky but the world seems more robust to this sort of shock than I would have thought

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

1 year

The backstory to how GPS became freely available for civilian use 🤯

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 month

@ArmandDoma Employees are allowed to quit for any reason, even as retaliation to their employer. The arguments that justify this, also justify allowing employers to quit for any reason. Labor contracts that allow either party to exit at will are good and should be allowed.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

This is a useful point and a counterbalance to the implication I made in the introduction to this essay By the 1700s there were many important discoveries whose absence would have prevented a Roman industrial revolution no matter how advanced other parts of the economy became

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

I do think this explanation underrates our uncertainty around Roman’s tech level All surviving text from Rome could easily fit on a thumb drive. The archeological evidence and text we have is a lower bound on the extent of Roman knowledge, not a central estimate

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

There was demand for coal in Rome as a heat source and for spinning power in several of Rome’s most important industries They fired enough pottery to build a mountain out of shattered pots that still exists today and used water wheels to power 10,000+ person scale grain mills

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

Invisible graveyard, cavities edition

Alyssa Vance

@alyssamvance

1 year

TIL that there is a cure for cavities

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

The moral hazard argument against geoengineering is ridiculous. The central problem of climate change is that firms ignore the cost of carbon emissions. Since these costs are already ignored, decreasing them will not change their actions, but it will save lives.

James Temple

@jtemple

7 months

It's official: Harvard's SCoPEx geoengineering experiment isn't happening.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Devereaux’s strategy of using Britain’s case to guess the conditions for industrialization is reasonable, but I don’t find his conclusions convincing. Rome had lots of coal (they controlled Britain for 300+ years!)

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Rome had lots of massive mines, and pumping water in and out of these mines was an essential part of their techniques. They built complex water-powered machinery to do so.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Bioethicist: “We don’t ask people to sacrifice themselves for the good of society” Also Bioethicist: "Stay at home and wear a mask everywhere for the next 2 years for the good of society"

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

3 years

Bioethicist: “We don’t ask people to sacrifice themselves for the good of society” Actual volunteers for human challenge trials: “I would like to make a sacrifice for the good of society”

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Slave labor doesn't work as an economic explanation, but it might work as a cultural one

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

21 days

An adversarial retraction index replacing the h-index would improve academic culture

Mu Yang, Ph.D.

@mumumouse2

21 days

Another RETRACTION. The 95th that I caused in the past two years.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

Above a $200k a year, fertility is increasing in household income (Data from 2018-2022 ACS) The households in the top percentiles of income stand to lose far more future wages from having children, but they have ~20 more children per hundred households than middle income hholds

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Dominant Assurance Tweet: If fewer than 100 people like this tweet, I will give each liker $5

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 days

r/neoliberal and r/slatestarcodex loved the post!

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

The printing press changes culture which is upstream of all the other inventions that Rome needed. A Roman printing press would have been sufficient for a Roman industrial revolution

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

Add it to the list: 🛳️ Jones Act 👷 Zoning/Height restrictions 🐭 70+ Year Copyright ☢️ NRC Licensing 💊 FDA Approval Costs 📃 NEPA Impact Statements 🌍 Immigration Bans 📇 Occupational Licensing ⛴️ Foreign Dredging Act Did I miss anything?

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

2 years

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

@MarkKoyama reviewing Aldo Schiavone’s The End of the Past has several interesting quotes on the cultural impact of slavery The main disincentive for improving the work of slaves was not the lack of financial reward, but the lack of cultural approval for such work.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

The cultural force against the mechanical arts is both upstream and downstream of technological progress. No printing press + large population of slaves with no incentive to improve productivity ==> innovative culture is impossible

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Why do conservatives care so much about mask mandates? The real liberty infringement is that the FDA banned EVERYONE from taking a LIFE SAVING vaccine for MONTHS because they didn't know it's efficacy to 7 significant digits

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

Might be the cleanest data on credential inflation out there. College today is the same intelligence signal as high school in the 60s. Grad school signals 10 fewer IQ points than it did in the 60s. More years and dollars spent sorting for weaker and weaker signals.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

Shot // Chaser

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

11 months

2 hours ago Greg, the (former) chairman of the OpenAI Board, was tweeting completely normal stuff about GPT4 evals. Suggests he was caught off guard by the announcement too.

Greg Brockman

@gdb

11 months

GPT-4 Turbo is top of the leaderboard on human preferences (with GPT-4 as #2 ):

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

The Romans were only a few “wheels on suitcases” level ideas away from each of the technologies on Jason's list. The printing press in particular would not have taken any new materials or even much design given the profusion of wine and olive presses across Rome.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

This explanation only shifts our focus one question deeper: Why were these earlier techs not discovered? Rome was close to all of the techs on Jason’s list They had access to the inputs and clear use cases What they lacked was the ideas and a culture which supported them

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Considering each of these theories I come away thinking that the Roman industrial revolution was certainly possible and that the printing press is underrated as the primary and perhaps sole constraint.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

Many sci-fi/fantasy books depict worlds with very different technologies but no change. Eg star wars lightsabers are state-of-the-art but thousands of years old. What are the best books with rapidly and unexpectedly changing technology?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

Why did we stop reclaiming land for cities?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

11 months

** Narrative Violation ** NEPA reviews have been getting faster for half a decade

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

Imagine the 1956 Dartmouth AI group discovered and adopted Eliezer's position on AI. They manage to ban or slow the development of computer science until they can figure out how to align computers and the minds they may host. Do they have any chance of making progress?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

An unnecessary millennium of poverty and suffering that was near impossible to see while it was happening. No one at the time understood the potential prosperity they were missing out on.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Beyond its inherent interest, the question of a Roman industrial revolution has implications for the future. If Rome could have begun the industrial revolution fifteen hundred years earlier, then its failure to do so was a transparent tragedy @robertskmiles

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

It's pretty weird how risk-averse we are about "dangerous" outputs from LLMs compared to search engines Esp given how similar the user experience of typing a prompt and receiving info is. Every search engine returns porn, for example, but no LLMs will go near it.

deepfates

@deepfates

7 months

lmao okay

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 months

Another great example of how the idea of market failure as taught in econ falls short. Every 101 student knows heavier vehicles have negative externalities that should be taxed That's where the homework ends, but govts actually do the opposite!

Don't Endorse the Idea of Market Failure

Javier Milei and Econ 101

www.maximum-progress.com

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

2 months

This is so dumb

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

If Facebook was around in 1847 they would be censoring Ignaz Semmelweis' claims about handwashing because they go against scientific consensus.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

The main recommendation of AI safety is slowing down AI tech to allow safety to progress. How much did slowing down nuclear tech progress in the 70s aid in nuclear safety? Safety improved after the 70s but was slowing tech progress necessary?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

6 months

Graham Paul: Absolutely! Let's delve in to the scintillatingly interesting world of writing. Rule number 1: Use your repertoire of vocabulary to paint vivid pictures with your words. Vibrant verbs and apt adjectives bring your scenes to life!

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

7 months

rare victory of the unseen risks over the seen ones

John Arnold

@JohnArnoldFndtn

7 months

Why aren't car seats required for babies on planes? The FAA studied it in 90s. They concluded that doing so would raise fares for families. In response, more families would choose to drive. But since cars are so much more dangerous than planes, such a rule would increase deaths.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

You've probably heard of the paper "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?" My latest post (link in bio) explains why this paper doesn't answer its own question

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

8 months

Remember Jeremey Allen White? This is him now, feel old yet?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Huge win for prediction markets

Joe Biden

@JoeBiden

3 months

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

11 months

Our best models of economic growth make a clear prediction: Shrinking populations end economic growth and technological progress

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

I really don't like this style of paper tbh. They should have a control group of google search. Otherwise it's just catastrophizing Also, from experience using these models on things I understand, they can give a list of steps which is useful but still far from the whole thing

Kevin Esvelt

@kesvelt

1 year

Will sharing the weights of future foundation models negate safeguards? To find out, we ran a hackathon at MIT in which participants playing compulsively honest bioterrorists asked Base and Spicy versions of Llama-2 how to obtain 1918 influenza virus. 1/7

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

4 months

"the only existential risk to humanity is climate change" Biden just lost the doomer vote

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

"Half of all scientific papers ever published were published in the last 12 years, but it is clear that much less than half of all scientific progress occurred in that time."

Mo’ Money Mo’ Problems

A proposal for science funding reform

www.cspicenter.com

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

We need the government to regulate technologies which pose existential risks! The government:

Alec Stapp

@AlecStapp

1 year

Just learned about this wild story from 2015

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

@_tessr These are beautiful! Most world expo buildings were made to be temporary though, so its not clear how long they could have lasted even if we wanted to keep them. We should build more tho.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

The comparison of nuclear waste to Ammonia fertilizer is a great argument. Ammonia can level entire city blocks and frequently leeches into the water supply. But it's worth it because it feeds millions. Nuclear fuel does more good and less harm as waste.

Sam Bowman

@s8mb

1 year

"We must stop seeing nuclear waste as a dangerous problem and instead recognize it as a safe byproduct of carbon-free power."

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

Multi-family homes are legal on only 1.26% of land in CA Zoning regs like these lower GDP by $10k+ per person The authority behind all of these rules derives from a 1926 S.C decision: Euclid v Ambler But the reasoning is bad and it can be overturned!

End Single Family Zoning by Overturning Euclid V Ambler

On 75 percent or more of the residential land in most major American cities it is illegal to build anything other than a detached single-family home.

www.maximum-progress.com

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Bad take. We have mandatory Spanish, history, mathematics, civics classes in school. How well does the average American know these things?

Justin Kan

@justinkan

3 years

90% of the world's problems won't exist if we had mandatory parenting classes in university.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 months

This seems insanely low to me. Is there some news I'm missing other than Biden's age?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Broke: We need to expand education subsidies so that 70% of Americans can go to college instead of just the top 50% Woke: We can build AI tutors that can give anyone a personalized, world class education on any topic that exists on the internet (all of them) for $9.99 a month

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

Why do flight attendants still say that you must put your phone in airplane mode during takeoff? No one does this, no one enforces it, it clearly has no impact either way.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

New type of guy just dropped

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 years

The debate around science funding is often framed as more vs less. Austerity vs abundance. In this essay for @CSPICenterOrg I explain why the amount of funding matters much less than the way it is distributed. Short answer: rent dissipation. 🧵

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

6 months

@littmath Since we don't know the order of the coin we haven't seen, there are ten ways to have 9 heads and 1 tail but only one way to have 10 heads.

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Fractal self similarity at all orders of magnitude. Left is a brain cell, right is a map of galaxy superclusters.

David Perell

@david_perell

4 years

Same structure: Rivers, blood vessels, tree roots, and tree branches

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Went to see the new spiderman last night. Measured inflation: Tickets were $19 Hidden inflation: They no longer give free refills on the large popcorn and soda

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

Government: Doesn't approve life-saving vaccines for months/years and recalls vaccines over tiny risks Also government: 😠😠🤬 it's Facebooks fault, let's get their money!!

Vox

@voxdotcom

3 years

A new bill from Amy Klobuchar would hold Facebook and other tech companies responsible for Covid-19 vaccine misinformation

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

5 months

Defensive technology is massively underrated in many people's view of the future. Spam tsunamis are common in near-term visions for AI but this is sleepwalk bias. Most problems can and will be solved by investments in defensive tech.

Made by Google

@madebygoogle

5 months

We're testing a new feature that uses Gemini Nano to provide real-time alerts during a call if it detects conversation patterns commonly associated with scams. This protection all happens on-device so your conversation stays private to you. More to come later this year! #GoogleIO

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@MTabarrok

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

@cremieuxrecueil Wait isn't this just algorithmic boosting from Yelp?

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

16 days

Unions are monopolies on labor just like Carnegie Steel is a monopoly on metal. If you want to bust trusts, then unions should be on your list. If instead you want to support the working class, then unions still aren't great. Just use direct transfers!

Unions are Trusts

And they're not a good way to support the working class

www.maximum-progress.com

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

1 year

@jasoncrawford @kkariko As @michael_nielsen says in his discussion of Kariko here The thing which proves that there is something is wrong is not that grant/tenure systems made a mistake. Mistakes are inevitable. But they are not responsive to their mistake. Penn and Nature and

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

4 years

We could have had this a year ago. Blocked by the FDA. How many unnecessary deaths?

Michael Mina

@michaelmina_lab

4 years

• No Prescription • No Doctor • Simple • At-Home • Rapid FINALLY....

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

2 months

Are speech laws this bad in the rest of Europe or is the UK uniquely bad here?

Connor Tomlinson

@Con_Tomlinson

2 months

Sky News reporting that the Crown Prosecution service has charged someone for "distributing a recording" they claimed is "intending to stir up racial hatred" The justice system wants to criminalise sharing video evidence of Muslim militias on social media

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Maxwell Tabarrok

@MTabarrok

3 years

This makes me very sad. If nuclear had kept on its growth path the world would be so different now. No climate change worries, cheaper faster shipping and energy and much more. Seems far away now.

Brian Potter

@_brianpotter

3 years

Reading a book on shipbuilding published in 1960, apparently at the time folks thought that nuclear-powered ships might become commonplace, and the industry was gearing up to build them:

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