Michael Paarlberg @MPaarlberg Twitter profile

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Michael Paarlberg

2 months

Mi entrevista en @eldiarioes sobre Venezuela y cómo construir una visión progresista del rol de EEUU en el mundo

Michael Paarlberg, exasesor de Sanders para América Latina: “El Gobierno de Maduro es un lastre...

"Como alguien que intenta articular una visión de política exterior progresista para EEUU, creo que es políticamente estúpido alinearse con el régimen de Maduro, además de moralmente incorrecto",...

www.eldiario.es

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Last Seen Profiles

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

I teach an undergrad class on Latin American politics that incorporates films as a supplement to the readings. Since it's course prep time, I'll share the films I assign, by country, and links where currently available here:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

On Guaidó, Trump said “he doesn’t have what it takes,” and called him “the Beto O’Rourke of Venezuela.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

This is larger than any of the migrant caravans of Central Americans, who are often described as tidal waves, floods and tsunamis

Camilo Montoya-Galvez

@camiloreports

2 years

EXCLUSIVE — 10,000 Ukrainians have been processed by US border officials in the past 2 months, a growing and unprecedented number fueled by thousands of Ukrainians flying to Mexico to seek entry along the US border, per internal DHS data obtained by CBS.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 months

NYT describes a legal right under US immigration law and the Geneva Refugee Convention as a “loophole”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

El Salvador will be the first country to make Bitcoin legal tender but would not be the first country to use cryptocurrency to evade sanctions. North Korea and Venezuela have done the same, to varying degrees of success...

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

The fact that the US government, Wall Street, international financial institutions and The Economist all wanted Lula to win is going to be a little hard to process for those Latin America watchers on the left who have not updated their frameworks of analysis since the Cold War

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

I read the Venezuela chapter of John Bolton’s book, which covers the first few months of 2019, from the January declaration of Juan Guaidó as acting president, to the failed April 30 coup/uprising. Some highlights (thread):

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

A prominent Salvadoran politician in the ruling party accuses me of being on the payroll of George Soros. Remarkable how devoted this administration is to Trump that they continue to borrow their conspiracy theories from him

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Argentina: El Secreto de Sus Ojos / The Secret in Their Eyes. One of my favorite films, with one of the best cinematographic sequences ever filmed, the stadium scene. Make sure you watch the 2009 original, not the bad Hollywood remake. On HBO Max and Hulu:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

6 years

Colombia charges 13 former Chiquita executives over hundreds of murders

Colombia’s prosecution said Friday it would charge more than a dozen former executives of the popular Chiquita bananas on charges they used death squads to increase profits. In a press statement,…

colombiareports.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

The most popular undergraduate majors in the US are: 1) business 2) nursing 3) biomedical sciences 4) biology 5) psychology If you get your news from politicians, cable news or social media, you would likely think it’s postcolonial anti-whiteness studies or something like that

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

@profmusgrave The ever-present brutalist library

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 months

Venezuela: Incredible comeback by Maduro winning with 51% after trailing Gonzalez by 35 points in pre-election polls. As in, literally not credible

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

After Russian statements of support for Maduro, Trump got cold feet about supporting a military uprising, saying “the entire army is behind him.” Later, Trump was struck by “All those good looking generals” who declared support for Maduro.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

One of Trump’s comments about Guaidó being weak came after meeting his wife, Fabiana Rosales. Per Bolton: “The most unexpected outcome of the meeting was Trump’s perception that Rosales had not worn a wedding ring and how young she looked.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

5 years

Most immigrants are not on welfare and most welfare recipients are not immigrants.

Stephanie Ruhle

@SRuhle

5 years

CURRENTLY the vast majority of new immigrants are NOT eligible for most welfare programs. - Undocumented immigrants - DREAMERS - H-1B visas holders - temporary/seasonal workers ALL pay billions of dollars into welfare programs that they aren't eligible for

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Mexico: La Dictadura Perfecta / The Perfect Dictatorship. Dark satire and Luis Estrada's follow up to the also great La Ley de Herodes. Almost as absurd as the real events on which it's based, largely around the EPN election. On Netflix:

Watch The Perfect Dictatorship | Netflix

After accepting a colossal bribe, a powerful TV conglomerate gins up fake news stories to enhance the image of a notoriously corrupt politician.

www.netflix.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

It’s surely no coincidence that the Bitcoin announcement by El Salvador’s President Bukele came 2 days after he shut down CICIES, the anti-corruption body that had opened investigations into his admin for misuse of Covid funds. A valuable and effective distraction.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

9 months

I just returned from Cuba. The economic situation there is the worst I’ve seen in 20 years. Inflation, shortages of food and medicine, nearly everyone I spoke to making active plans to leave.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Pres. Bukele has named Gustavo Villatoro as El Salvador’s new Minister of Security. Villatoro is a close associate of money launderer Herbert Saca, the cousin of imprisoned former Pres. Tony Saca, and connected to the Alba network of JL Merino

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

1 year

On the anniversary of Chile’s 1973 coup, remember that the common narrative that Pinochet was an effective steward of the economy is a myth. I wrote this a while ago on Egypt, but the Pinochet model has been pushed by credulous pundits for many countries

The Pinochet Myth Is Alive and Well Among Pundits Who Write About Egypt

Columnists keep saying the Chilean dictator was a brute who modernized the economy. Actually, he was a brute with a rotten economic record. Take heed, Egyptians.

newrepublic.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Throughout debates over US-Ven policy, Trump doubted Maduro would be overthrown, saying he’s “too smart and too tough.” After Guaidó’s swearing in ceremony, Trump said “I’ve always said Maduro is tough. This kid - nobody’s ever heard of him.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Trump’s attitude toward Venezuela policy vacillates between eagerness for a full on military invasion (opposed by his advisors) and open admiration for Maduro and disdain for Guaidó.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

In a May 23 call with Trump, Putin compared Guaidó to Hillary Clinton, as someone who proclaimed himself pres without any real support. Putin told him that US support for Guaidó had consolidated support for Maduro. This largely persuaded Trump to lay off on more Ven. sanctions.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

1 year

Uh oh maybe ChatGPT really will replace college professors

Jennifer Ouellette

@JenLucPiquant

1 year

Researchers discover that ChatGPT prefers repeating 25 jokes over and over

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Just for perspective, this is 1/10th the number of Ukrainian refugees who were processed at the border earlier this year, efficiently and without alarming language about a “surge” or “crisis”

The New York Times

@nytimes

2 years

Up to 1,000 migrants, mainly from Nicaragua, crossed en masse into the U.S. at El Paso on Sunday — one of the largest single crossings in recent years in West Texas, which has seen a surge in migration.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

11 months

My prediction is Milei will be unable to push through any of his radical ideas, hamstrung by the Peronists and his own lack of a party base, end up governing as a conventional conservative, cut programs for the poor, and leave office with 30% approval like every other president.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Colombia: La Sierra: Muerte en Medellin. Documentary about an urban paramilitary group in Medellin during an especially brutal period. Helps contrast with and deflate the heroic image of autodefensas from the previous film. On Youtube:

La Sierra Documental Pelicula colombiana Completa

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www.youtube.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

I don’t think we Americans appreciate how much of the global appeal of Star Wars comes from the rest of the world identifying with the rebels and identifying us as the Empire

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Takeaways from Lula’s visit to Washington: 1. Shared threat of far-right authoritarianism stoked by fake news, exemplified by Jan. 6/8 attacks, brings Brazil and US closer together. Lula needs international backing to legitimize his win and solidify democratic institutions

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

26 bodies recovered from a clandestine mass grave in Nuevo Cuscatlán, El Salvador, all apparent victims of MS-13. The Bukele government has touted a drop in the murder rate, but disappearances are on the rise, as a govt pact with the gangs was revealed

Confirman hallazgo de 26 cuerpos en fosa de Nuevo Cuscatlán - La Prensa Gráfica

El ministro de Seguridad y Justicia confirmó que encontraron otros 23 cuerpos en la fosa, que se suman a los de los hermanos Guerrero Toledo y la futbolista Jimena Ramírez.

www.laprensagrafica.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Cuba also does not have a problem with violent crime or gangs, because it is a police state that jails 1% of its population. El Salvador jails 2%. Not sure why the Senator finds one type of authoritarian regime preferable to another.

Marco Rubio

@marcorubio

2 years

In El Salvador @nayibbukele put thousands of gangbangers in jail He has an over 90% approval rating because for the first time in decades people feel safe going out at night & they no longer have to pay an extortion tax to MS13

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 months

There will always be those with the lazy knee jerk take that the CIA is behind any bad event in the world because it absolves them of the need to study domestic politics in other countries, take far-right movements seriously, or attribute any agency to non-westerners.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Argentina was once richer than France, Germany, and Spain. In the late 90s it opened its economy and then had a massive economic crash. See, you can do a selective read of economic history for any country to reach the conclusions you want.

David Frum

@davidfrum

2 years

When Mexico joined NAFTA in 1994, it was way more developed than China. If Mexico had fully opened its economy to grow at only 1/4 China's rate, Mexico's GDP/capita would today rival that of France. Mexico needs more modernity. Lopez Obrador is returning to the authoritarian past

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Chile: Machuca. Coming of age film set in the last years of the Allende government and the run up to the 1973 coup. A really great film by Andres Wood. On Kanopy:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

1 year

It’s unfortunate that for many people on here, debate culture - rapid recall, rhetorical flourish, aggressive argumentation - is synonymous with intellectualism. Real intellectualism means doing research that is rigorous, careful and builds on a body of scholarship

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

1 year

El Salvador’s President Bukele is running for reelection, which is explicitly prohibited by the constitution. So his vice president, a legal scholar, says he’s not running for reelection, but rather a “second term”

Diario El Mundo

@ElMundoSV

1 year

#Pol íticaSV | Félix Ulloa: "Se trata de un segundo mandato", no reelección

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

The opposition’s Cucutá humanitarian aid confrontation, intended in part to force Maduro into a bad photo op, was coordinated with help of Pentagon and USAID. But leaders of Colombia, Panama, Chile, Paraguay, OAS were on the ground to give it no “made in Washington” veneer.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 months

Saying some people who apply for asylum and don’t actually qualify for it doesn’t make it a loophole, any more than the fact that some people apply for jobs that they don’t qualify for. Adjudicating who qualifies and who doesn’t is the whole point of the system

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Brazil: Tropa de Elite 2: O Inimigo Agora é Outro / Elite Squad: The Enemy Within. A cop movie may be a weird pick but it speaks plainly about anger at corruption and "the system." Fun to ask students if this is a left wing or right wing movie. On Vudu:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

First, a caveat: these are not necessarily the best, or most representative films of each country or region. I choose them for having some political content that fits into the broader themes I try to cover in the class e.g. migration, political economy, corruption, gender, race..

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

No diplomat of any country should trust the confidentiality of communication with this government

Nayib Bukele

@nayibbukele

3 years

False accusations? Is it false that Jean Manes asked me to release Neto Muyshondt (captured in video giving tens of thousands of US dollars to gang members)? Do you want me to continue?

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

50-50 chance that Bukele will be the world’s first head of state to run a multi-level marketing scam, or the first to fall for one

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

After being convinced to recognize Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate president, Trump said (Bolton: “unhelpfully”) “I want him to say he will be extremely loyal to the United States and no one else.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Bolton says the yellow pad incident was Trump’s idea of a prank. Claims Trump asked him if we should send 5k troops to Colombia if they were needed, and told Bolton “go have fun with the press.” Bolton wrote this down, flashed it to the press, and it got photographed.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Trump had proposed an invasion of Venezuela in a speech in Aug. 2017. He also proposed meeting with Maduro in person. Bolton and Pompeo advised him against both.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

5 months

Officially tenured! Now I can work on my spoken word album

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Some background on Araujo, who has been investigated for graft, organizes harassment campaigns mostly against women, and changes parties every few years to remain in power

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Also Mexico: Cartel Land. Documentary about the anti-cartel autodefensas in Michoacan led by the late Dr. Mireles. I pair this with the next film from Colombia for a comparative study of vigilantism. On Vudu, Hulu, and Kanopy:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

President Bukele’s announcement is aimed to impress tech investors, and it appears to be working. But it comes as US-ES relations are hitting nosedive due to Bukele’s authoritarianism, State Dept. naming officials to corruption lists, and Treasury likely preparing sanctions.

Tyler Winklevoss

@tyler

3 years

Big News: El Salvador 🇸🇻 announced that they will make #Bitcoin legal tender and have bitcoin in their reserves.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

FWIW I think regime change should never be a US foreign policy goal, broad sanctions hurt poor people more than the leaders they target, there should be no military option, plotting coups with corrupt generals is wrong, and also that Maduro has been a disastrous leader for Ven.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

The real value of the announcement though is the publicity. ES needs to attract investors and distract from fact that it’s a bad bet rn, with unsustainable debt, bad relations with US, and Bukele harassing critics in the business sector by sending regulatory agencies after them.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Trump was largely convinced by Rubio to take an aggressive Venezuela policy. Rubio pushed for regime change, saying “this may be the last chance” and “a big foreign policy win.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Bolivia: Nuestra Marca Es la Crisis. 2005 documentary about how a US top dollar polling firm came down to Bolivia to run Goni Sanchez de Lozada's presidential campaign, and how his fall coincided with the rise of Evo Morales. On Vimeo:

Nuestra Marca es la Crisis (2005)

Un documental norteamericano refleja cómo la empresa asesora de imagen estadounidense contratada por Sánchez de Lozada, durante la campaña del…

vimeo.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Venezuela: 3 Bellezas / 3 Beauties. This may seem out of left field. But a very political, disturbing, and unforgettable satire about gender norms and beauty standards by @mccarlanga . On Tubi, Pluto, Roku:

3 Beauties (2014)

A competitive mother becomes obsessed with having a beauty queen in the family and takes frighteningly extreme measures to make her dream come true.

tubitv.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Sweeping arrests of opposition figures in El Salvador right now, targeting officials of the left party of past admins. So far include former Min. of Health, Min. of Agriculture, Vice Min. of Science, and an ex legislator. No charges announced and they reportedly can’t see lawyers

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Tal vez esos periodistas deben entrar al negocio de aires acondicionados

Diario El Mundo

@ElMundoSV

3 years

#P ólíticaSV | “Se acabaron sus jugosos salarios a esos periodistas”: Christian Guevara sobre Ley de Agentes Extranjeros >>

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

However Trump wanted a military option, and raised this with a Florida Congressional delegation, who were all “stunned” except for Rubio, who “knew how to deflect it politely.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

6 years

Did you know Everything in this tweet is wrong? Thread: (1/)

Charlie Kirk

@charliekirk11

6 years

Did you know 90% of all heroin in US flows through the southern border Millions of guns illegally pass via the border 15,000 kids are Sex trafficked each year Thousands of MS13 animals pass with no opposition Illegals are twice as likely to commit crimes Build. The. Wall

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Another is Bolton’s belief that Cuba is the puppet master behind everything in Venezuela, and Ven. policy should be part of broader policy toward Cuba and Nicaragua. He brags Trump complimented him on the phrase “troika of tyranny,” though Trump’s speechwriter came up with it.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

22 days

Haitians fought in the Revolutionary War for US independence. The new Haitian government gave weapons to Simon Bolivar for the independence of Gran Colombia. The Haitian Revolution inspired slave uprisings. Haitians have done more for freedom in the hemisphere than most countries

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

VP of Moody’s: “It makes very little sense. If investors wanted exposure to bitcoin, they should simply buy bitcoin, not El Salvador’s risk.” Looks like neither is a wise investment at this point

Analysis | Nayib Bukele trades bitcoin naked. El Salvador is paying the price.

The president of a gang-plagued Central American country has become the world’s most unlikely bitcoin booster.

www.washingtonpost.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

5 years

This is what the @nytimes calls a “historic flood of migrants to our southern border” sent by “basket-case governments”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Also Bolivia: Quien Mato la Llamita Blanca / Who Killed the White Llama: A very funny road trip comedy that speaks to a lot of stereotypes and social divisions (race, gender, region). There's a bunch of versions online, I found one on fb:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Cuba: Juan de los Muertos / Juan of the Dead. There are lots of great Cuban films, but I went with this comedy. Zombie apocalypse hits Cuba, government calls them dissidents and proves incompetent, so enterprising citizens kill them for money. On Youtube:

"Juan de los muertos" (2013) [Juan of the dead] LEGENDADO English subs

"Juan de los muertos" (2013), de Alejandro Brugués.Sinopse:Havana foi infectada por uma horda de zumbis famintos. Tudo leva a crer que é culpa dos Estados Un...

www.youtube.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 months

This data analysis in @ForeignPolicy presents evidence that El Salvador’s Bukele government is underreporting homicides by as much as 47%, a figure roughly in line with what was indicated in police emails released in the Guacamaya Leaks

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

One consistent thread throughout the chapter is Bolton’s hatred for Treasury Sec. Mnuchin, whom he blames for undermining his Venezuela sanctions policy.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

1 year

Responses by Latin American leaders to the violence in Israel and Gaza, a thread…

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

As for the failure of the April 30 coup, and broader failure of his policies to accomplish regime change, Bolton is in denial. He blames Mnuchin, the State Department, Cuba, and Russia.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 months

@egavactip Again, not a loophole. They have a legal right to try. We can say they shouldn’t, but we can say everyone should always be honest, understand the law, etc. We don’t organize societies by relying on individuals’ better angels, that’s why we have courts and judges.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

IMF requesting new meeting with El Salvador over stalled $1bn loan. Comes on the heels of Bitcoin announcement, but many other recent moves to weaken transparency and thwart anti-corruption efforts could violate terms of past loan or any future one...

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Bolton, Shanahan and Dunford were against an invasion, but discussed it “solely to keep Trump interested in the objective of overthrowing Maduro.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Honduras: Who Is Dayani Cristal? Gael Garcia Bernal retraces the path of a deceased Honduran migrant to the US, for a documentary I use for a section on migration from Central America. On Vimeo:

Who Is Dayani Cristal? (English version)

www.whoisdayanicristal.com

vimeo.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Notably a number of these Salvadoran officials in Bukele’s party who are likely targets for glomag sanctions are credibly accused of money laundering. These are through ties to Alba, a joint venture with Venezuela’s state oil company, and/or the Texis Cartel.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Nevertheless the chapter details intimate coordination between the Trump admin and Ven. Opposition. Worked with the Lima group to recognize Guaidó, which “took little or no convincing.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

“The report includes declassified DEA and CIA documents which make clear that, as early as 1988, assassinations of ‘leftists and communists’ were a ‘joint effort’ between the intelligence chief of the Colombian Army Fourth Brigade and members of the Medellín cartel.”

Rachel Nolan

@rachelbnolan

2 years

If Colombia held a minute’s silence for every victim of its 60-year armed conflict, then no one would speak for the next 17 years. Good morning, I wrote about the Colombian Truth Commission Report for the @LRB

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

To be effective, sanctions require coordination with other countries, which requires diplomacy. Trump and Bolton were entirely unwilling to do that work, allowing Russia and China to give Maduro avenues to evade them.

Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

5 years

Sanctions are a blunt tool, but for them to work you need international cooperation, and the Trump admin has demonstrated unwillingness to engage in diplomacy.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

2 observations. 1) there are clearly double standards in public perception and press coverage of refugees, driven by race, nationality and religion. Press should be careful about language that dehumanizes certain people

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Many issues important to El Salvador-US relations raised in this interview with Norma Torres in @prensagrafica

“Bukele se siente empoderado porque está rodeado de fantasmas, de internet, de troles”: Congresista...

La congresista que en la última elección de 2020 logró una holgada y extensa victoria sobre Mike Cargile de 20, 300 votos versus 6,700 votos que obtuvo el republicano, reiteró que Estados Unidos no...

www.laprensagrafica.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

7 months

A president who suspended civil liberties, defied the constitution to remain in power, eulogized Hugo Chavez, copied laws from Daniel Ortega, and admired Fidel Castro, is invited to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference

El Faro

@_elfaro_

7 months

“Luchen por su libertad. Luchen por sus derechos. El próximo presidente de los Estados Unidos, no solo debe ganar una elección. Tiene que tener la visión, la voluntad y el coraje para hacer lo necesario y, sobre todo, para identificar las fuerzas subyacentes que conspirarán

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Thus the corrupt officials whom sanctions target are insulated, while ordinary Venezuelans suffer. The sanctions give the Maduro government an easy scapegoat to blame for their own economic mismanagement.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

The other running theme in the book is self flattery. Guaido’s wife Fabiana Rosales told him, “Mr. Bolton, it is an honor to count on you as we do” and “the regime wonders if the US military threat is credible, but they are most afraid when John Bolton starts tweeting!”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

As for Bolton, he pushed for, and got, sweeping sanctions on Venezuela which he believed would result in a successful uprising. “We played no role in encouraging or assisting the Opposition” in declaring Guaidó prez, but “I had no doubt what we should do. The revolution was on.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Perhaps Bukele would take the US Embassy’s condemnation of his power grab a little more seriously had it not come on the heels of a big donation of military equipment to his government

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Recent moves by Pres. Bukele have been to shut down any corruption investigations against him: getting rid of the attorney general, commissioner of the transparency body IAIP, and anti-corruption body CICIES, after it had opened 12 corruption cases against his administration.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

8 months

We forget this but the treaty that handed over the canal to Panama was opposed by 80% of Americans at the time. Reagan slammed Carter for it. Even Trump brought it up. Critics warned that the canal would cease to function under Panamanian administration. Instead, they improved it

Simon Kuestenmacher

@simongerman600

8 months

You've seen me share a few maps and videos of the Panama Canal. I love that engineering marvel. This animation shows a map and a timelapsed journey through the canal. 15 seconds worth watching!

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

El Salvador is particularly dependent on the US. ES switched its currency to the dollar in 2001. 20% of its GDP come from remittances from Salvadorans in the US. Its debt is close to 100% of its GDP. It’s in negotiations with IMF for a loan that is now being held up by the US.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

For sanctioned governments, the promise of crypto is that it would allow for them to evade the US’s SWIFT messaging system that monitors and tracks bank transactions. North Korea has used crypto to fund its nuclear program.

How U.S. Adversaries Are Using Cryptocurrency to Evade Sanctions

Before his arrest, Virgil Griffith had a reputation as a “cult hacker,” a “tech-world enfant terrible.” A 2008 profile in The New York Times Magazine, published when he was 25, called him the...

www.worldpoliticsreview.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

In another dig at Mnuchin, Bolton describes how after Mnuchin expressed doubts about sanctions, Energy Sec. Rick Perry “politely explained to him how oil and gas markets actually worked internationally.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

I thought we were past 2020, but here we see @BernieSanders being discussed in a @politico article about people he has nothing to do with, a bunch of tankies defending Maduro in 🇻🇪. I was/am Sanders’ Latin America advisor so this is frustrating for me (🧵)

Nicolás Maduro Tries a New PR Campaign: Going Woke

Venezuela’s leader is courting a growing, more socialism-friendly generation in America by co-opting the language of the millennial left.

www.politico.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

Very interesting to see a president talking like Gramsci and governing like Mussolini

Nayib Bukele

@nayibbukele

3 years

Porque su “sistema” tiene un error de origen: Sus aparatos ideológicos construyeron paradigmas, aceptados por todos como verdades irrefutables y blindados contra toda crítica. El error fue que los términos que usaron son contrarios a los mismos sistemas que los protegen.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

Dominican Republic: In the Time of the Butterflies. Historical film about the Mirabal sisters' fight against the Trujillo dictatorship. This isn't ideal because it's American and has non-Dominican actors. But can't find Tropico de Sangre online. Youtube:

In the Time of the Butterflies (Kisah Pembunuhan Keluarga Mirabal)

Film ini diangkat dari sebuah kisah nyata perjuangan revolusioner empat orang perempuan bersaudara dalam melawan kediktatoran Rafael Trujillo (El Jefe) di Re...

www.youtube.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

The Border: Lone Star. I sometimes preface this class with a discussion the US-Mexico border and assign this film. It's John Sayles' best of his US states films, a murder mystery set in a fictional border town. On Hoopla:

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

Of course what we know now is that even if regime change is the goal of US Ven policy, Bolton’s policies were completely counterproductive.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

3 years

For an entrepreneur-president facing deteriorating relations with the country it is most dependent on, and preparing for sanctions and money laundering investigations, crypto has a real appeal. But it won’t work unless ES makes its own sovereign crypto, which is unlikely.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

He also describes the drone attack on Maduro in 2018, a failed assassination attempt involving explosives, as “hilarious.”

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

El Salvador has, of course, indicted multiple former presidents, convicted and jailed one of them, with others having gone on the run. Not sure why he sees Trump’s indictment as uniquely unjust.

Populism Updates

@PopulismUpdates

2 years

El Salvador's president on Trump indictment

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

El Salvador’s mass arrests are political theater, covering up the failures of punitive policing and deportation policies in Central America and the US. My analysis in @washingtonpost @monkeycageblog today:

Analysis | Why El Salvador’s mass arrests won’t lower the murder rate

By promising to reduce homicides, politicians are forced to make deals with the gangs so they’ll turn murders into “disappearances.”

www.washingtonpost.com

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

2 years

2) Expressed fears about a “rush at the border” are more about optics than numbers. It’s not the scale, but the perceived chaotic nature of it. Which is a matter of resource administration. When governments devote personnel to process people in an orderly way, it’s not an issue.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick

@ReichlinMelnick

2 years

Here's what's staggering: the overwhelming majority have been processed through the San Ysidro port of entry, in numbers larger than we've seen that port of entry process in nearly 6 years. This proves that we *can* process asylum seekers in large numbers at ports of entry.

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Michael Paarlberg

@MPaarlberg

4 years

So when convening a Sit. room meeting on Venezuela sanctions, Bolton proposed “why not go after all three at once?” Everyone agreed except Mnuchin, who worried about impact on US oil investments and a global rise in oil prices.

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