MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸 @MP4FMPK Twitter profile

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

4 months

People of all ages, colour, creed & religion united to speak for justice & freedom #freepalestine

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

The 1% tax on property could be a watershed moment in Pakistan’s fiscal history. Lets hope the courts don’t strike it down!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Mr. Ishaq Dar on SAMAA TV: “I have discussed both things (financial help and oil facilities) with the Saudi finance minister, and there are positive vibes from there. They said they would support us,” he said. Its official, 🇵🇰 is running on #vibes

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

PTI: inflation because of PMLN PMLN: record tax collection because of us Me: paying higher taxes with a devalued PKR salary 🤡

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

USD/PKR interbank at ~226 USD/PKR informal market at ~255 and rising Don’t think I’ve seen such a large spread (~13%) in my lifetime #PKR #USD

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

There seems to be a popular perception that the economy was in sound shape until the VONC in Apr 22. Unfortunately the descent into economic chaos started well before the exit of the last gov. FX reserves were already ⬇️40% from their Aug 21 high of USD 27 bn by Apr 22. 1/6

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

5 months

SBP governor: Charging banks 1% to lend to bankrupt government Doubled SBP profit to PKR 2 trillion Paid off 1bn eurobond with no decline in FX reserves

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

All day long you will hear of record breaking tezi in market. Then the trading data comes out 🤡 #KSE100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

Har cheez ban kardo. We have a million laws and 0 enforcement. Why not provide consumers with an incentive to move away from cash? Provide a discount on GST if using a debit/credit card for payment. Say 13% instead of 18%.

Govt Planning to Ban Cash Transactions Across Pakistan Beyond Certain Limit

The government is considering implementing a unique proposal in the budget (2023-24) to impose a ban on cash transactions beyond a certain limit at retail

propakistani.pk

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Massive hike for salaried class! Once again the government has decided to punish honest tax payers while agriculture/real estate continue to get away scot free! The current system is unsustainable if the burden of taxation is not shared equitably!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Funny how the food sector is exempt from the 6% additional super tax. Transparency at its best!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

FlyJinnah review: Cute/small plane (airbus a320) 😐 Plane/loo seemed clean & not smelly 🙂 Cabin crew had a British accent 😍 Food/drinks had to be purchased (cash accepted) ☹️ On board entertainment you could connect to 🙂 Takeoff/landing uneventful 🙂 1/2 @flyjinnah

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

PKR/USD🧵 Since hitting its peak of 276.6 the PKR has appreciated 4.6% against the USD. Interestingly the REER as measured by JP MORGAN is near its all time lows of 83.2 against the 3 year average of 98. 1/4 #PakistanEconomicCrisis #PakistanEconomy #KSE100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Lots of panic about intervention in the FX markets to bring USD/PKR parity down. FX reserve number is from 23rd Sep while PKR started strengthening on 26 Sep *breathe* Here’s the game plan:

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

KSE 100 index opens up 5%+ and is halted after 5 mins. Traded value just PKR 1.25 billion! 😂 My broker friends must be hyperventilating. #KSE100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

BREAKING NEWS: Moody’s upgrades Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating outlook from negative to stable! Crisis, what crisis? #PakistanEconomicCrisis

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

5 months

CA surplus USD 925 mn over Mar-Apr FDI in Apr hit a 4.5 yr high FX reserves up to USD 9.1 bn Approvals for profit repat & divs coming through Banks begging clients to open LCs SPI down 5 weeks in a row Foreigners buying stocks & T bills Pakistan rising 🇵🇰 😎

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

6 months

Solar 🧵 A lot of panic every time the gov talks about reducing the net metering rate. While the reaction is understandable, solar producers should understand where their savings comes from. Sources of solar saving are 3: 1/7

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

What is happening: On the brink of default Terrorism on the rise Inflation at 50 year highs People starving What we are talking about: Toshakhana Non bailable arrest warrants Geedar/ghari chor Zaman Park/section 144 Haya March

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

4 months

June 9th - India vs Pakistan 😵‍💫 June 10th - SBP interest rate decision 🤩 June 12th - Budget for fiscal year 2025 😩 Big week for our emotional/mental/financial health!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

In the last week or two many people have asked me about when a correction/pull back may occur & should they be profit taking. My response has been: 1. Its almost impossible to predict a correction in the near term. All momentum indicators have been blown out of the water. 1/n

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Meezan bank posts record profit of 45 bn to much fanfare. Analysts should simulate what the profits would have been if they paid their depositors a fair rate. The SBP should look into the role Islamic banks play in hindering the transmission of monetary policy. #KSE100 #MEBL

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

9 months

Trade deficit ⬇️ 13% Remittances ⬆️ 5% Current account ↔️ FX reserves ⬆️ USD 1.2 bn PKR rallied to 281 T bill yields ⬇️ 50 bps Deal on Reko Diq expected IMF USD 0.7 bn expected Favourable developments for 🦁 KSE 100 has declined for 5 sessions straight (-1.1%) Flows matter

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

IMF signed a staff level agreement with 🇱🇰 in Sep 22. 🇱🇰 inflation is 53% (core 52%) 🇱🇰 1Y T bill is ~28% 🇱🇰 real interest rate is -25% 🇵🇰 inflation is 28% (Urban core 15.4%) 🇵🇰 1Y T bill is ~20% 🇵🇰 real interest rate is -8% #PakistanEconomicCrisis

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Next time the gov should focus on reducing petrol use. Maybe look into increasing car registration costs for 1500+cc cars to fund public transport. Awaam benefits from cheaper/efficient transport & richie rich's can cruise on streets with less traffic. #PetrolPrice

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

7 months

So the government is threatening the institution that funds its deficit? 🤡

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

Are mutual fund allocations shifting? 🧵 With around PKR 2 trillion or USD 7 bn in assets under management, mutual funds could be one of the major sources of liquidity for the markets going forward. Whether we are talking about equities or fixed income… 1/9

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

28 days

Did you know the 🇵🇰 gov borrows at negative interest rates? SBP lends 12 trillion to banks at 19.6% Banks lend to the gov thru tbills/pibs at: 3M: 17.7% 6M: 17.4% 1Y: 16.7% 3Y: 14.4% 5Y: 14.5% 10Y: 13.2% SBP will soon transfer 2.5 trillion profit to the gov 👏🏽 👏🏽 👏🏽

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

SBP holds rates at 22%. Now we get the privilege of hearing from the SBP team on why.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

BREAKING NEWS‼️ 🚨 🚨 🚨 DEFAULT AVERTED (in June) 🇨🇳 rolls over USD 1 billion to 🇵🇰 🥳 Also apparently on whatsapp forwards 4 - 1 + 1 = 5 🤦🏽‍♂️

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

Trade deficit of just ~800mn in April Imports under 3.0bn now Current account surplus being generated at a very heavy cost Seems like the gov wants to fill the external financing gap solely through import compression Ultimately unsustainable for a nation of 220mn people!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Chaar bajkay das minit Chaar bajkay das minit Char bajkay das minit Like that he’s travelling in a corolla instead of the standard issue cruiser

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

Wouldn’t be surprised if demonetisation led to 5000 rupee notes being sold for 4600 while 1000 rupee notes start selling for 1080. Also could see a spike in commodities/real estate as cash holders panic buy real assets. @rogueonomist

The Pakistan Experience

@ThePakistanExp1

1 year

"There is 8.5 trillion rupees of cash in Pakistan' @rogueonomist Economist Ammar Khan suggests demonitizing the 5000 rupee note:

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

This means the government has given up on the IMF program? Right?

Govt announces fuel package relief for low-income families

* Wants to subsidise Rs50 per litre for those using motorcycles, rickshaws and 800cc vehicles

www.brecorder.com

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Bank deposit rates 🧵 Banks have to pay the Minimum Deposit Rate (MDR) to depositors on savings accounts (Islamic banks exempt). Currently the MDR is set at 1.5% below the policy rate (20.0%) or 18.5%. 1/6

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Today 🇱🇰 increased interest rates by 1% to 16.5% with inflation running at ~53% Yesterday 🇵🇰 increased rates by 3% to 20% with inflation at ~31% Only one of these countries has so far managed to sign a staff level agreement with the IMF 💪🏼

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

⬆️ in FED on fertiliser will translate into higher food inflation. 2.5% ⬆️ in taxes on salaried individuals earning 200k+. Both measures will hurt the common man. Big 🐟 as usual walk away scot-free!

Shahbaz Rana

@81ShahbazRana

1 year

⁦ @thereviewexp ⁩ brings exclusive details of new budget agreed with IMF ! Govt increases taxes on salaried class, imposes 5% excise duty on Fertilizer that will affect farmers, taxes on sale/purchase of plots increased. Tax Reforms Commission report is thrown in dustbin

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

When will the SBP start cutting rates? 🧵 Over the past couple of months the market has built a consensus over the peak of the interest rate cycle and began speculation over the timing and quantum of rate cuts. 1/8

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

Petrol/diesel prices ⬇️ Subsidies ⬆️ Salaries/pensions ⬆️ 💰 amnesty Interest rates ◀️▶️ Dumping 💰 into open mkt Lifting import restrictions Bad mouthing IMF Now promising big news by 30 Jun Does the gov have an ace up its sleeve or is it doling out relief before its bails?

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

28 days

The nation has arranged more than $2 billion in financing and assurances from lenders other than the IMF, said, Jameel Ahmad, governor of the SBP. The external funding was seen as the final hurdle for an IMF loan. -Bloomberg #PSX 🚀 🚀 🚀

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

SBP raises rate by 1% to 22% in an emergency MPS. 🤡 🤡 🤡 2 weeks ago we were being told that contractionary fiscal stance & moderating inflation meant rates were now positive on a forward looking basis. Does this mean IMF is on?

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

23 days

The delusion of our govs (past & present) never fails to amaze. Taking credit for falling international oil prices. 🤦🏽‍♂️

PMLN

@pmln_org

24 days

"گذشتہ 1 سال میں پیٹرول کی قیمت میں 81 روپے کی واضح کمی" ⭕: وزیر اعظم شہبازشریف کی منظوری سے پیٹرول کی نئی قیمت 249 روپے مقرر

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

@steve_hanke thats a grid station near my house not a nuclear plant.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

8 months

Where can I buy PSX puts at this time of night? 🚨 🚨 🚨 #kse100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 months

SBP meets tomorrow. No point in a 100 bps or lower cut when the policy rate is at 20.5%. Minimum cut should be 150 bps, preferably 200-250 bps. Go big or go home.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

#ENGRO announces emergent meeting around 10 am to consider certain corporate actions. Stock price goes from ~260 to ~269. At ~3pm it announces cancellation of said meeting. Stock goes from 265 to 259. Kaisa laga? 😃 #PSX

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

30 days

IMF coming in October? That is in 3 weeks. IMF will be followed by a default? Math isnt mathing 🤔

Syed Muzamil Hasan Zaidi

@hoflolz

1 month

Political news in Pakistan is noise designed to keep you distracted. If you want to know when/how IK will be released, follow the economics. - IMF not coming till October. - Iran sued Pakistan and is demanding 18 billion $s in fines for IPI. - Chinese are not interested in

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Imagine you are a bank. Imagine you hold a 100 billion rupees of 3 year gov bonds. Imagine the yield on it jumps 3% to 20.7%. Congrats, you just saw a revaluation loss of 5 billion on your balance sheet. How’s your equity holding up? #PakistanEconomicCrisis #PakistanEconomy

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

6 months

Karachi airport is a ghost town. Thought there would be eid rush of travellers. Got through check in and immigration in 20 mins. Is this a reflection of the collapse in consumer demand & purchasing power?

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

4 months

“Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is so far not willing to increase the burden on the salaried class.” Stay strong @CMShehbaz hum aapkay saath hain! ❤️

Talks with IMF end without agreement

Disagreement persists over ‘irrational demand’ for high taxes on salaried class

tribune.com.pk

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Flight left ~20 mins late but landed on time (sorcery?) ☹️ 😐 No pillow/blanket available ☹️ 🥶 Boarding was done in order (back to front) so less shoving 🙂 Tix cost (khi-lhr-khi) 29k vs 38k PIA so good value 🙂 Overall quality addition to the airline scene 👍🏼 @flyjinnah

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

7 months

Both governments will act like they donated it from their daddy’s account rather than crediting the tax payers of 🇵🇰 Humaray 100 rupay lay kay, chawani wapis karkay, ahsaan jatana humari gormint say hi koi seekhay

Muzzammil Aslam

@MuzzammilAslam3

7 months

Punjab Govt Ramadan Package… 10 kg Atta (Rs1500) + 2 kg sugar (Rs300) + 2 Kg Ghee (Rs900) + 2 KG Rice (Rs500) + 2 Kg baisan (Rs400) = Total Package (Rs3600) + Bonus (Nawaz Sharif Photo) In comparison KPK Government gave Rs10,000 cash per family. People can use their fund as

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

8 months

SBP holds policy rate steady at 22%. Time spent at this peak rate has now crossed 7 months. The record is 1 year back in 2013-14. Next MPS is on 18 March. Feb CPI will be around 23%. How long will the market have to wait for a rate cut? #KSE100

MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

When will the SBP start cutting rates? 🧵 Over the past couple of months the market has built a consensus over the peak of the interest rate cycle and began speculation over the timing and quantum of rate cuts. 1/8

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Every asset class has a time to shine, at points it is equities, at others its fixed income or FX. Given the uncertainty these days I thought it would be nice to look at long term returns of t bills vs USD vs kse 100 1/n

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

11 months

Haters gonna hate

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

3 months

For any non filer worried about paying double tax, the NCCPL has a 🎁 for you! Same rates for filer/non filer in stock market, mutual funds & pmex. Let the money flow!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

24 days

I seem to recall APTMA & the entire industry threatening the complete collapse of the textile industry & exports if their tax payer funded concessions were taken away.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

3 months

EV charging at Shell pump on Bahria, DHA Are EVs catching on?

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

For the past week or so I’ve noticed my evening commute from office to home has dropped from ~30 mins to ~20 mins. Less traffic on the streets. Are people switching from cars to public transport cause of fuel prices/inflation? Anyone else noticed this? #PakistanEconomicCrisis

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

Over the past year 🇵🇰 has been beset by political & economic instability. 🧵 Inflation has reached multi decade highs as the prices of essentials has sky rocketed. The PKR has crashed as 💰reserves have declined & default has become an overwhelming fear. 1/10

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Maybe we should officially start calling it zaleel kameenay instead? Walk into a bank: Sir aap filer hain ya zaleel kaminay?

Ahfaz Mustafa

@ahfazmustaf

2 years

Pakistan is the only country where we have a category called non filer - Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. #ReimaginingPakistan

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Seems like people do not understand how endowment funds work. Their purpose is to create a portfolio of income generating assets for their charities. The only thing to question is under which law/approval money was sent abroad for investment. Storm in a teacup

Uzair Younus عُزیر یُونس

@UzairYounus

2 years

Just a small story here that has nothing to do with conflict of interest and lack of effective governance at a major non-profit…

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Zindagi may aisa confidence chahiay

Hina Parvez Butt

@hinaparvezbutt

2 years

ڈالر 7 روپے سستا ، زمان پارک میں سوگ کا سماں

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

5 months

Receive support price for wheat, sugarcane & cotton often above international market price Receive subsidised fertiliser below international market price Receive almost free water Pay barely any taxes But yes threaten the country every time you have a problem 🤦🏽‍♂️

Usama Mela

@UsamaMela

5 months

Let us sell our wheat wherever we can get a fair price. You will be on your knees if this farmer gets access to int’l markets. Lift the ban on export of wheat. You would have no textile sector without the sacrifice of Pakistan’s farmers, who have been forced to sell to

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

So I barely get any gas at my house but you can see the difference in my bill from Nov to Dec. Fixed charges (highlighted in yellow) have jumped to 400 from 10.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

5 months

I blame Ammar for the change in net metering policy. All 0.3% rich households please form an orderly mob

Ammar Khan

@rogueonomist

5 months

There are 113k residential units with solar net metering. This is less than 0.3% of total households in the country. >75% of these users are 700+ kWh consumption households. This is an issue of rich people pretending not-to-be rich. 1/

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

28 days

Aap kay bhai nay kabhi gharoor nahin kia. 200bps!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

This is another circular debt in the making. Cross subsidies in electricity/gas exist too. Unki bhi halat dekhlo #PetrolPrice

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

7 months

#kse100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

For everyone who couldn’t tune in live here is the recording of last night’s session.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

25 days

Everyone up in arms on the gov borrowing 600 mn @ 11% from SCB. Eurobond maturing in Sep’25 trades at 11%. In the scheme of things an extra 3% or 18mn (NPC pays 8%) + transaction fees is irrelevant. Getting the IMF done without further delay was much more important.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

23 days

CPI in the mid single digits very possible over the next 6 months. ⬇️ imports, ⬆️ remittances & clearing of profit repat backlog means a current account surplus is also likely. Significant implications for the policy rate & psx. Long risk (during ftse rebal) & duration?

Farzooq Haider

@FarzooqHaider

23 days

Sep cpi 7.5% & Dec cpi below 3% is also a possibility with lower oil prices. #KSE100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

3 years

@UzairYounus Seriously this whole remittance/rda has been built up as some great charity overseas pakistanis do out of love for pakistan. They send money home to their families, buy plots (driving up their price), and rent seek with 7% guaranteed usd yields with rda

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

@Jamiazad1 Not a supporter of shaan at all but he had a point. If ure saying shit abt him publicly he has a right to respond.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

8 months

Base impact clearly visible in SPI with the YoY number dropping from 44% to 31% over the last 4 weeks. Expect a similar pattern in CPI with inflation projected to average 18-19% during 4QFY24 (April-June) down from the last 3M avg of ~29%.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

@Hammad_Azhar Hammad sb. These images are from my tweet. First of all you did not include my commentary to provide proper context to the graphs. Secondly, banda credit hi dayday ta hay.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

7 months

Feb 2024: Current account surplus of USD 128 mn PKR REER recorded at 102.2 Expect a surplus in March too on the back of higher remittances & continuation of suppressed import demand.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

10 months

5. There is no need to preempt such a strong almost parabolic trend by selling prematurely. Wait for price action to confirm a reversal. Trying to outguess the mkt is pointless. 6. Don’t overthink it with conspiracy theories of pump & dump. Enjoy the ride up while it lasts!

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Hilarious how pti fan boys have become fiscal analysts now. Where were these champs when the loot maar sale budget was unveiled by pti last year?

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Dar sahib waali vibes arahi hain

FinancialJuice

@financialjuice

2 years

JP MORGAN CEO DIMON ON THE DEBT CEILING: AS LONG AS I AM ALIVE, THE US WILL NOT DEFAULT.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

13 days

The gov has initiated QE??? First debt buy back of PKR 500 BILLION is on Monday! Guess those SBP profits (~USD 10 BILLION) transferred to the gov are being put to good use! May partially explain the crazy move in bond yields over the past week. 🚀 🚀 🚀

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

Funny how the IMF didn’t have an issue with taxes that will directly hurt the common man. Wake up people. The IMF and the gov don’t care. They will always take the easy and politically expedient way out.

MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

There is a new narrative where the IMF is being painted as some benevolent pro poor/anti elite 👼 Public statements by their MD aside please be clear, the IMF "daant care" about the poor. All they want are revenue measures. 1/2 #PakistanEconomicCrisis

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

7. Pitch the narrative of a stable PKR, declining inflation and default avoidance ahead of the election Feel better now? *breathe* #IshaqDarReturns #usd #pkr

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

MARI's board meeting notice should've come in at ~9 am. Instead it was delayed by ~2 hours as ~100K shares were traded & the price⬆️4%. Notice posted at 10:49 am with no announcement. Stock⬇️6% from high. Lesson: Don't speculate without an edge. #KSE100

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

5 months

SBP has significant room to cut even if inflation averages 21% from Jun to Dec IMF asking for 1.3 trillion in taxes. Cut the policy rate to 17% by Dec & create 1.3 trillion fiscal space yourself.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

🇵🇰 USD funding gap 🧵 The last IMF document details our gross USD financing needs for FY24-27 at a cumulative & very scary USD 150.1 billion! The 👿 is in the details however. Let's make the following adjustments just for fun: 1/5 #PakistanEconomicCrisis #PakistanEconomy

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

All equity mutual funds (conventional & Islamic) are now negative on a fiscal year to date basis (July 1 onwards). Mubarak #PSX #KSE100 #stockmarketcrash #mutualfunds #MutualFundsSahiHai

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Oil crashing Bonds rallying Gold up Equity futures tumbling My head hurts

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

1 year

“The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated” - USD 💰 It is not easy to replace a global reserve currency especially since the potential contenders do not have the ability or desire to do so.

Reuters Energy and Commodities

@ReutersCommods

1 year

Exclusive: India, Russia suspend negotiations to settle trade in rupees -sources

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

SBP reserves went up? 🥳 #PKR #USD #KSE100 #PSX

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

SBP FX calculations till June 2023 (in USD billion): START: 4.3 Inflows: China: 0.8 KSA: 2.0 UAE: 1.0 IMF: 2.5 Outflows: Debt: 3.0 CAD: 2.0 Backlog: 2.5 END: 3.1 Target import cover: 2.3x Monthly import: 5.0 Target FX reserve: 11.5 Gap: 8.4 #PakistanEconomicCrisis

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Auction cut offs 🚀 3M to 12m tenors up by ~2% Expect a rate hike before the next auction on 8th March. Hope you’re positioned for it. Stay safe out there friends. #PakistanEconomicCrisis #IMF

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

PKR 🧵 There is an oft repeated perception that the Rupee does not follow fundamentals but is manipulated/sentiment driven. While there have been periods (1994 - 1997 & 2014 - 2017) where the PKR strayed from its equilibrium levels (as determined by REER) these have been 1/4

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

1. Administrative measures/danda to banks, money changers & exporters 2. Ensure receipt of USD 5.1 bn (ADB 1.5, AIB 0.5, WB 2.0, IMF 1.1) by Nov/Dec 3. Obtain IMF waivers on revenue targets & utility tariffs 4. Use softening commodity prices to pass on relief to consumer

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

I was today years old when I learned I live in a Kakistocracy

The Cultural Tutor

@culturaltutor

2 years

What political system do you live in?

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

The SBP keeps raising the policy rate and the MoF keeps rejecting bond bids in the 14% range. Maybe if you want investors to bid at your desired level try not to surprise the market every few months with ad hoc rate hikes? Seems like no one’s at the wheel 😴

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

4 months

How the hell did the REER drop 3.6% in May? Did the RMB or USD collapse in the last month? SBP should share the calculations for greater transparency.

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

I wonder when Mr. Ian Chappell will write a similar article for the Aussie team’s performance in India? #INDvsAUS

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

3 months

“IMF urged the gov to strengthen its privatisation law instead of selling these strategic assets in a non-transparent manner.” Foreign entities trying to protect our national assets from our own gov 🤦🏽‍♂️

IMF demands abolition of PSWF

To qualify for new bailout, fund seeks transparency, accountability in SOEs

tribune.com.pk

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

4 months

Glad the SBP came around to what I’ve been saying i.e. don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater! We need a functioning economy for fiscal stability. Policy rate cut by 150 bps to 20.5%. This is just the beginning.

MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

6 months

CPI due today. Expect it to be b/w 20-21%. On rate cuts Ive generally held 2 views since last year. 1. Cuts would happen post March 2024 2. USD more important than CPI If i had to guess how rates will drop: 2Q (Apr-Jun): 0.5 - 1.0% 3Q: 3.0 - 3.5% 4Q: 1.0 - 1.5%

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MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

Higher interest rates = higher debt servicing (for the largest borrower which is the gov) = higher fiscal deficit = demands from creditors to increase taxes/reduce subsidies = higher inflation = higher interest rates and so on! AKA the death spiral! #PakistanEconomicCrisis

MP 🇵🇰 🇵🇸

@MP4FMPK

2 years

#KSE100 #PSX @StateBank_Pak #USD

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