🧵 UKRAINE’S ZAPOROZHYE OFFENSIVE
Operations Order (OPORD): ‘General Outline of Operations / Commander’s Summary’
It seems clear the Russian Army had explicit forewarning of plans for the AFU’s plans main recent attack
That would all but guarantee disastrous failure for the AFU
Evidence & Precedent for Disqualification. Ex-BUMN Sec Said Didu: VP Candidate Ma'ruf on Board of State-Owned Bank Subsidiary still means Ma'ruf an official of State-Owned Firm; cites 3 mth jail & fine for State Subsidiary staff backing Pra-Sandi via FB
US national Jerry Gray arrested for not respecting JKW, hurting his feelings. Oh well, could be worse: if pursuing "hate speech" against
@wiranto1947
there'd be mass arrests at airports & smashed tourism sector, gutting of UN staff numbers
🧵UKRAINE’S ARTILLERY. An Order of Battle study
The AFU’s main indirect fire arm has an unusual “deconstructed” quality which defies normal military organization (like much of the AFU)
TLDR: AFU artillery brigades have not deployed as actual brigades
Some background first...
Amnesty investigates May Jakarta Violence: Extra-judicial killing of 10 & torture by ID Police
"Election Security" by Wiranto; still same nexus as Police-TNI command responsibility May 98-Dili UNAMET 99 (tacit western backing in Fabian R2P intervention)
RIAU SMOKE HAZE CRISIS: CALL FOR DISASTER EMERGENCY STATUS; from Riau's Sayed Abubakar, DPR Committee VII (Environment, Energy, Tech) - emphasizes health & law enforcement needs
[But Wiranto just said it wasn't really as bad as the media were reporting!]
Admin Law Expert Margarito K confirms BUMN subsidiaries ARE State-owned firms per BUMN Ministerial rule No 3, 2012: stock BUMN-owned; monies state-owned & remain so in business activity; BUMN Ministry sets director-supervisor boards & staff (inc. Ma'ruf)
🧵UKRAINE'S MILITARY CRISIS: an Order of Battle study
#RussiaUkraineWar
How did Russia's army, with far fewer deployed troops than Ukraine's, expand territorial dominance in Ukraine far greater than it had on 24 February?
Short answer?
Ukraine’s army was too big for its boots
🧵UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE (GUR)
Child of NATO's Gladio
Recent intrigues around GUR Chief Budanov's rise compel some review of his organization
TLDR: It has both NATO (and Nazi) stamps literally all over it
"...Russian push in Lyman [area], 2.5 km from the village of Yampol, the entire 79th airborne brigade was surrounded. Ukrainians are surrendering en masse"
[East flank of Lyman Pocket reduced?
If so, Svyatogorsk-Slavyansk may become Falaise-like]
Election Monitoring Agency (Bawaslu) confirms Ma'ruf DID NOT meet prerequisite on UU7 2017 S 227p. Exhibit PK-135 shows KPU accepted Ma'ruf's candidacy but DID NOT check off PREREQUISITE (syarat) no 18 on resignation status. Clearly refers to Section 227p
🧵RABOTINO POCKET: COLLAPSING THE BAG
The extravagantly hyped AFU 2023 counteroffensive concentrated most of its flourishes on the Tokmak-Melitopol Axis ...springboard for a breathlessly awaited 'Crimean Beach Party'
It became an operational cul de sac
...and more blood to spill yet
RuAF are shaping a couple of small kotels/pockets for direct fire from either side of that high ground
Surviving AFU (and prob. some NGU 14 Bde too) would be scrambling for entrenchments just to the north. But in time they'd be like fish in a
🧵Ukrainian Nazis
or 'the Rise and Fall of the Weird Reich'
Pt 1
Not only Russians have long alleged that Kiev's post-coup regime not only tolerated Nazism but oversaw its revival to foment anti-Russian and other racist hatred and criminality
NB: original jpeg creator unclear
"some small extension of the Russian lines"
In which universe? To reiterate
Russian mechanized forces just broke some of the
toughest-defended anti-armor high ground since,
say, Hill 112 & Bourgebus Ridge in Normandy
Already happened a week ago
There have been some small extension of the Russian lines heading south of Izyum and towards Lyman, but the pace is such that unless Ukrainian forces are actually close to collapse, the chance of a large scale encirclement is very small.
'PENCITRAAN' GIVETH - AND TAKETH AWAY: Not fair to focus on Jan Ethes wearing GUCCI bee loafers after
@jokowi
chided ID women for buying imported shoes
#JanEthesSukaBarangImpor
Grandson Jan Ethes sports BURBERRY slip-on sneakers going for just USD180-220
Road density is one thing
Their claimed "battalion" pushes are absurd: up to FOUR reporting - by squads - almost simultaneously with PR snaps within a tight space of 5 kilometers
Air imagery shows no such congestion
Looks like desperate PSYOP - YellowBlue Palookaville edition
@SteVonFTW
Road density in this area is conspiring against the attacker, hard to either sustain the push or widen the gap, and Mariupol is a full 60 miles away.
UKRAINIAN TROOPS' ANTI-CAMOUFLAGE FIELD UNIFORM
AFU's conspicuous, lavish bright-blue adornments express crisis of blue-on-blue/"friendly fire" casualties in poor fire discipline & chaotic unit control
An Airborne unit likely replenished with TrO call-ups
So many aiming marks
STUDENTS SEAL OFF NATIONAL PARLIAMENT BUILDING (DPR): CLAIMED "TAKEN OVER"; reject Amendments to Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) Law & Criminal Code revisions as anti-democratic
[later Jl Gatoto Subroto brought to standstill. Looks part of
#jokowiMUNDUR
]
"Explicit forewarning" may well appear by such confrontational Russian posture
Given how the Dreizin OPORD holds up, and released c. a month before H-hour, we should not be surprised if RF forces had OPORD details down to brigade and even battalion-group levels too
ie, granular
This probably accounts somewhat for Ukraine losing many vehicles still in their approach columns. Clearly the AFU did not expect the screening line to fight so hard. To be fair, I didn't either. Thus, all the fighting is taking place miles north of where we expected it.
MAJGEN (RETD) KIVLAN ZEIN ALLEGES PHYSICAL ASSAULT BY JUDICIARY HOSPITAL DOCTOR: "Aug-Sept I sought treatment, was refused..doctor hit me, knocked me down. Dr Wennas, E.Jakarta Judiciary Hospital"
+ a judge tried coercing guilty plea via sentencing offer
Ha. Look at this. The Ukrainians are pushing NE the other side of Izyum too. Look out for Russian forces being surrounded in Izyum in next 24/48 hours.
🧵THE BAKHMUT CRUCIBLE
Part 3 - Shell Game: Ukrainian Ground Forces' Unstable Command Structure
Zaluzhny's replacement by Syrsky is a timely reminder to examine the AFU chains of higher command, which are extraordinarily flexible and irregular entities
TLDR: Syrsky Schmyrsky
Text released appears to be quite genuine as part transcription and translation of an AFU OPORD summary
It posted quite early to this URL, but doubtless elsewhere too >
WAMENA: DOCTOR SOEKO MARSETIYO MURDERED IN RACE-HATE CRIME. 53y.o for past 5 years serving nearby Tolikara, killed by hacking to the back of the head [probably machete or axe], burns to the back
[Dr Soeko had a family in "Javanese" Yogya: wife, kids]
"If Putin wins..." But said in Guardian 28 Feb 2022 "Putin has already lost"
Transhumanist, Trans-strategist, shape-shifting demon or...just someone who needs to be made to get a real job instead of being a worse-than-useless eater?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine breaks the biggest taboo of the international order. Since 1945, no internationally recognized state was wiped off the map by external conquest. Russia is trying to do just that to Ukraine. Putin is following the imperial principle that any territory
OOH NO! KPU NOT HAPPY AFTER 12 PROVINCES FAILED TO COMPLETE THEIR ELECTION COUNTS. After repeatedly saying results were final, even making official announcement a day early
After, like, a month and a half. But "OK, Election was fine, nothing to see here"
BELOGOROVKA BRIDGEHEAD
GeoLocation of CNN report & AFU UAV footage indicates phased RF expansion from Svitanok Flats, advanced SE via spur to flank of AFU defence of township's north
Seems CNN visit in lull 10-11 May
Intensified crossing operation indicated in FIRMS from 12th>
CALL THE ELECTRICITY POLICE! Forget electrical engineers, their technical education and knowledge of the existing power network & its capacity burdens
POLRI can expand beyond their Social Media patrols
Next charge PLN executive explanations as 'hoax'?
BELOGOROVKA BRIDGEHEAD: Update
RF poss.Bn-strength estab.
Sign ongoing UA interdict-fire, widening advance points
1. UA bridge claims unsubstantiated: bizarre censoring of own imagery
2. RF crossing unit seen intact
3.RF advance SE further indicated by recent fires (inc. off-map)
Whether via Russian sources, NATO dissidents or (likely) both, intent and effects would be the same
The above feed here was by US veteran-commentator Jacob Dreizin, no ignoramus himself in these matters
Text detail, although sanitized, seems too specific to have been his alone
Audit's in Illia: based on🇺🇦KIA detail and NATO-team tracking of RF formations
Barely 15 Russian battalion-groups diverted & held equivalent of c.TWENTY🇺🇦BRIGADES
NO attempt to enter Kiev (no need to)
Russians blocked you on Warsaw & Zhitomir highways
Your army lost back then
I absolutely love the way Putin fans are now like: "Haha, what if now Wagner goes to Belarus, Kiev is screwed now, haha."
Yes, my dear brainless hamsters, 16 months ago, Russia's best regular military forces tried and failed to even enter Kyiv and were defeated -- when Ukraine
Electoral Commission (KPU) takes sides! Publicly objects to Opposition point on VP Candidate Ma'ruf. Does KPU know: the Constitutional Court (MK) case is not a la English adversarialism; they're revealing their bias; they're influencing MK proceedings?
The OPORD detail’s release echoes Soviet troops before the legendary Operation Bagration, who openly made mass crossing & assembly points up to a week BEFORE H-Hour
By then it was too late and too big for horrified German defenders to do much - if anything - to affect the result
The Destruction of 24 Mechanized Brigade (preview)
Your claim that 24 Mech Bde lost c. 280 troops since SMO's start is absurd.
Public Ukrainian obituary sources demolish that figure, indicating an averaged rate of killed to c.1,500 just by the end of July 2022
WATCH: the first of our exclusive reports on
@24th_brigade
of the Ukrainian army explores the reality of fighting on the frontline & the challenges facing them as they try to gain an advantage over the Russians 1/3
The Russia-Ukraine War shows a prevalence and importance of artillery, a term usually meaning mortars, howitzers, rocket tubes, precision-guided munition and some long-range missile strike
This thread discusses mostly the 2nd & 3rd above, but not exclusively
It’s institutional
MINISTER PRABOWO VISITS PINDAD: LANDS BY HELICOPTER, TOURS IN ARMOURED CAR, INSPECTS ASSAULT RIFLES
[prior to Philippines visit to promote arms export/project, & before 2nd Russian Ambassadorial visit
Possible increased Indonesia-Russia defence coop?]
The stuff of mutiny or even fragging
This also happens when an army runs out of officers and experienced NCOs: surviving shell-hierarchies become indispensable, held back whether they want to lead or not
To all the men of Glorious Ukropina who laughed at Russian officers dying at the front, this is what happens when officers are cowards who do not lead by example.
Here, men of the 57th Brigade confront a battalion commander who refuses to ship out to the front with them.
Ol' Jommers doing his Marvel Comics again
Not a single question mark on the map!
An old instructor once said: "If an Int overlay has no question marks it means 1 of 2 things:
1.All the info's confirmed as 100% true, accurate & up-to-date; or
2. It's fraud
And I've never seen 1"
6/ Let us look at the balance of forces currently engaged in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD & their likely mission set. The most recent geolocation data places at least 60x BTGs in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. 51x BTGs are arrayed from Izium to Popsana.
🧵Ukrainian Counter-offensive
The Normandy Comparisons
As Kiev's Summer 2023 campaign faltered repeatedly, a whole chorus of Western apologia arose to help feed and bolster the failure
This was in direct parallel with Western largesse in continual supply of arms and ammunition
Artillery assumed high status in military cultures since its birth. The destructive technology of indirect fire nearly always dwarfed and out-ranged that of main rival arms infantry and cavalry
It attracted huge investment
and loathing: overrun gun crews could expect no quarter
Bonaparte was an artilleryman
Napoleon could intuit movement for several corps' troops across a continent, knowing fully the destructive force at hand in a given time and place
He did this the way experienced builders, plumbers or plasterers can quote a week-long job at a house
The map depicts at worst unsubstantiated nonsense, at best speculative musing based on
1) memory of WW2 Barbarossa/"Deep Battle", and;
2) Feb-Mar drives by Kiev/Chernigov/Sumy etc vs barely defended flanks
Is the map's description yet more absurd?
Is that why PPO omits source?
And what has happened in the 2.5 months so far. Best to start with this map. Basically the Russians have dialled back enormously on their expectations (and frankly the expectations of others) that they would take a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.
Artillery’s importance as a device for victory meant that it could develop some of the best personnel, whether by selection or experience
Whenever the infantry claim the greatest work ethic, get them to dig, camouflage, and haul ammo and water beside the gunners!
This release of detail seems a deliberate “show of knowledge”, a psychological tactic down to the level of individual prisoner interrogation, to demoralize or “break” a subject
At levels of command and staff too, effects of such demoralization can be devastating if not decisive
'FRAUD A PART OF DEMOCRACY': Incumbent Team (TKN) Moeldoko's Campaign briefing slide, shown to Court as exhibit. TKN Defector Hairul Anas, nephew of ex-MK Mahfud MD, ex-Yusril's party PBB, testifies on TKN briefing. TKN witness Anas N inconsistent, possibly implicates Moeldoko
"It" - UA ability to conduct offensive operations - has already been tested in several AOs: N/NE Kharkov; W/NW of Izyum, and; across the Nikolaev-Kherson Front
Either you failed to identify that fact, or you just prefer to keep schtumm about the results of said exams
Kherson is where a future UA counter offensive could play out. Despite the present focus on the Donbas, economically and strategically Kherson is more significant, and it is where UA ability to conduct offensive operations will likely be tested in the future. 10/
The arm’s importance and technical sophistication mean that artillery officers and NCOs are often an army’s smartest
Whenever the intelligence cell gets exclusive or lazy, or too clever by half, get an artillerist commander or chief of staff to scrutinize their work!
LYMAN CITYFIGHT
Update, Higher-res FIRMS Traces & flare detection in Sentinel-2
City is thoroughly invested from all sides except SW-rear
Intense action at SE indicates effort to cut off AFU breakout to south
PAPUA ETHNIC CLEANSING ULTIMATUM: "1 MONTH FOR NON-PAPUANS TO GET OUT OR WE SHOOT YOU"
Purom Okiman Wenda threatens by phone: "We don't care if they're private business, public servants or 'Ojek' riders we'll shoot them..I ask governors to back..referendum
No. They "got off the beach" after the first day, most well before sunset. Indeed the airborne forces were never even on the beach
In Ukraine SS members continued the war into the late 1940s because they were sore over who "won WWII"
STATE-OWNED (BUMN) PERTAMINA PAYING 'MINISTER' LUHUT TO USE 11 FLOORS OF HIS OWN FIRM'S JAKARTA TOWER BLOCK. 100% conflict of interest, blatant takeover of public assets, zero consequences
"Minister" of everything and/or whatever, actually Junta member
How is Staryi Saltov a "strategic town"?
Nothing goes through there
Its bridge is blown c.80m open
No enemy forces or installations worth mention
No foreseeable potential for basing future operations
And actual "strategic"?
No production, administrative, trade centers or port
Three whole months now
Their regard for Ukrainians can only be deemed psychopathic callousness, sacrificing them to preserve policy narrative and domestic prestige
Reinhard Gehlen was an artilleryman
Whatever the Scharnhorst-born virtues of the German Wehrmacht, intelligence was rarely among them
Gehlen reformed a weak, chaotic intelligence network, practically from scratch, to establish vast coverage of a fully mobilized & deployed USSR
Misses the MOST IMPORTANT lesson (unlearned):
13. Over-investment in Deception via Info Ops eventually becomes a Force Neutralizer & Force Divider. IOW "don't do Black PSYOP on yourselves"
What a coincidental number there!
Having followed the Russia's Special Military Operation for the last 16 months, very few new isights have come to light. Instead, we have re-learned a number of important older lessons. This list is by no means exhaustive.
(INDONESIAN NEWS
#RussiaUkraineWar
) WESTERN MEDIA COVERS UP THE NEO-NAZI IDEOLOGY OF AZOV BATTALION & UKRAINE'S DREAMS OF LEADING A FINAL CRUSADE
[Indonesia watching Western hypocrites who smeared its dissenters as "Nazis" - openly embrace the Real Thing]
"died after travelling to [UA] to fight alongside Ukrainian soldiers...to help troops battle...reportedly wanted to help Ukrainians fight..."
But called "Humanitarian Aid worker"
Is that routine cover now for (still officially outlawed) merc recruitment?
Ukraine made one of the World’s largest standing armies
As Defence Minister & AFU Chief said in bellicose unison 13 Feb, Ukraine had "the most powerful army in Europe...absolutely ready to fight back”
They gave up land alright, far more than in 8 years' preceding Donbas warfare
Russia's operational aims?
1. Consolidate ethnic-Russian Donbas incorporation especially by outflanking northern Lugansk
2. Water access and a land bridge for Crimea
All mostly done by mid-2022
UKRAINE WAR UPDATE: The goal is destruction of the Russian army. UKR is drawing out their reserves and chewing them up. The plan is working well. Taking geographic locations is the secondary effect. It will come when the time is right.
#CounterOffensive
The main breakthru attack
(REGIONAL SECURITY) CHINA'S NATUNA CLAIM: INDONESIAN MILITARY INCREASES ALERT STATUS. Serious effects from incursion by PRC Coast Guard & fishing vessels: PRC insists on its 9-Dash Line; RI's Natuna sea & air forces on alert
[context for US IQ-IR strike?]
Chasov Yar has been AFU's main forward HQ ("Front Tac") and transit hub for nearly a decade now
For RF patrols to so enter the township is akin to WW2 predecessors doing same in Vinnitsa or Rastenburg
Ukrainian telegram admits the Russians have entered Chasiv Yar and that the overall situation in the front is grim, with Russian vehicles moving around “without resistance”. The need to stabilize the situation without repeating the Avdeevka disaster.
“The enemy got hold of the
But inconsistency and irregular supply chains make for sclerotic circulation, and an organization increasingly inflexible due to its array of logistical anomalies
Besides, improvization is often a sign of desperation, and one of the most dubious & overrated of military “virtues”
Of course, Dreizin and/or his interlocutors, could have conceivably created the information themselves from scratch
No allegations here!
But action at the front, and formation identities, show too much validation of detail to be remote prescience, let alone mere coincidence
🧵UKRAINE'S WAR DEAD & 24 MECH BRIGADE
Comparing reported losses of commissioned officers
Responding to
@RadarFennec
the 50:1 ratio (all force: 24 Mech) appears to hold up, at least for the early SMO period. N.B. - aircrew numbers still to be processed but so far only 7.5% at
KREMINNA SECTOR CROSSINGS - Update
FIRMS indicates AFU registered arty fires (prob.not seen at swamp-river)
1.Belogorovka Bridgehead
a.Confirmed several crossing points
b.Confirmed Right Hook eastwards (then SE in re-entrant)
2.Indication intended/actual bridgehead NE Serebryanka
"But", I hear you say, "more and bigger tubes, ATGMs, AFVs, UAVs, gutsy troops PLUS mighty NATO & $$$, means more CAPABILITY!"
Not necessarily
Russian early success in Ukraine proves the old adage "the bigger they come, the harder they fall"
KHERSON-SOUTHWEST FRONT: Intensified RuAF activity in offensive action / local demonstration as indicated by:
Fire patterns mostly in areas of AFU deployment
Fires "advancing" in recent period
Nikolaev evacuation/RuAF airstrikes
Recent US Pres visit
Confirmed new T62 units in AO
How do we know it was a feint?
There was nothing to breach
It involved battalions attacking Russian forward posts’ flanks, from the line of march, using company groups too
AFU brigade entities spread across their enemy’s bulge at Zaporozhye Oblast’s border - literally marginal
(REGIME CHANGE) MINISTER PRABOWO GREETS MORE VISITS: UK, RUSSIA, JAPAN. UK Attache & cybersecurity, Russia ASEAN ambassador & Attache, Japan ambassador & Attache
[Australia: better work out a plan...sooner than later. No need to keep talking to Mahfud MD]
5,000 PROTEST JKW RALLY AGAINST NEW LABOR LAW: WORKERS HARASSED, JOURNALISTS FORCED TO DELETE PHONE VIDEO
Police not in official uniform but in white a la Jokowi campaign; even Antara journalist ordered to ignore scene, arrests, lawyers removed
(fascism)
Chasov Yar was already site of the Ukrainian HQ JFO (Joint Force Operational HQ) since long before Russia's 24 Feb attack
IOW Ukraine's highest-level command center for the entire Donbas theater (reportedly hit hard early)
"Military Target"?
Understatement. It is a key AFU hub
No
Turns out the "UA authorities" themselves did not dare try to confirm destruction of the bridgehead just north of Belogorovka
And likely simultaneous crossings in this porous easterly sector
Predicament for AFU. Lissichansk Pocket
CLOSING THE LYMAN POCKET
RuAF exploitation & pursuit from Yarova
AFU withdrawals indicated from Sosnove & Svyatagorsk, (poss. also from Studenok)
Infantry hvy wpns & ammo seized in Yarova, photographed in detail
Poss. collapse & abandonment of township
[good call
@cpimentel986
]
The next thread will follow up to examine more closely how the AFU compromised its own counteroffensive
It will also consider in more depth just why it did so
Such flexible, creative conduct by the Russian Army would not just be a “black swan” for NATO’s Too-Big-To-Fail Ukraine Project
It would be a black day for their whole portfolio
But it is entirely plausible given Russia devotes to its army a military railway corps
...and more blood to spill yet
RuAF are shaping a couple of small kotels/pockets for direct fire from either side of that high ground
Surviving AFU (and prob. some NGU 14 Bde too) would be scrambling for entrenchments just to the north. But in time they'd be like fish in a
KIVLAN ZEIN DEMANDS WIRANTO PAY FOR 1998 JAKARTA MILITIA: lawyer Tonin cites Rp 8 Billion from Kivlan, only Rp 400 Million from Wiranto, Habibie confirmed non-budgetary Rp 10 Billion to Wiranto
Tonin: writ also for Wiranto pressing sedition-plot charges
How does this relate to the AFU artillery situation?
The AFU artillery arm’s importance is confirmed by its size, one of the largest ever formed
To trace the fate of such an entity takes time in a more challenging analytical task
We can start with obituaries, or “blood trails”
One problem is that “artillery brigades” and rocket brigades (together called RFA), show a sparse casualty tally that is very discreet and displaced
Anomaly is clear from quick comparison to line infantry brigades’ KIA traces, which would overlap to make map placenames illegible
The wider AFU (+ NGU and volunteer) force showed similar dispersal and dissipation of brigade strengths at the start of Russia’s SMO on 24 February 2022.
Mechanized, Motor Rifle, Airborne and Marine brigades mostly deployed by constituent battalions far apart in frantic reaction
Kherson City has caught intensified long-range AFU artillery fire
Per Law of Armed Conflict, military authorities are obliged to evacuate civilians from areas which are targets of fire, or likely to become such targets
By your sophistry you confect an allegation of "genocide"
This assertion still holds with the Ukraine’s reclaimed territory along the Volchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum Axis this past week
That line was a vital route/MSR in Russia’s first two operational phases
But no longer so if their effort shifted via new MSR set away from new AFU artillery
These idiots pulling funding from Ukraine will soon find their kids and my generation on hot battlefields across Europe. I can’t understate how significant of an inflection point in the 21st century we’re at right now. We can’t abandon our ally.
"Europe's Ammunition"
Only ammunition in the photo is RUSSIAN 7.62mm X54 rimmed with a non-disintegrating belt
Is not Finland the only other "European" country making that at any military scale?
Also, "ammunition brings peace" oxymoron suggests you have a bad marketing problem
BELOGOROVKA BRIDGEHEAD: Update
1.RF crossing confirmed destroyed at other site c.400m from Filtration Plant
No FIRMS signature due to water/direct fire use
2.Crossing c.1.1km nth poss.destroyed by AFU arty
3.RF SF poss. infil & raids vs RAS & facilities Shipilovka, Pryvilya etc
Yes, offering a large-scale Suez trap knowing many Israelis will be screaming to go in
Just as the whole op seems to have based H-Hour on the 50th anniversary of the thoroughly planned break and grab of the Bar Lev Line
History rhymes not repeats, but sometimes in exact rhythm
I think it's quite likely that Hamas' end-game in this operation is goading the Israelis into an all-out invasion of the Gaza Strip - something they've shied away from (for good reason!) for twenty years now.
It would be a bloodbath fought on Hamas' terms and on their home turf.
But sources’ detail on casualties show that public releases have a disproportionate weight of officers and NCOs compared to common soldiers i.e., 24 to 34!
These ratios are conspicuously suspect, even by standards of Ukraine’s obvious under-reporting of own casualties in general
A part Dreizin’s release missed is feint attacks. Why?
Higher-level attacks usually run feints to put an enemy off balance & distract from the actual main effort or target
Early SMO did efficient feints by Kiev: barely 15 Russian battalions drew up to 20 AFU brigade equivalents
But it is not too detailed
The Dreizin text reads as OPORDs should: flowing in general outline, at once sequentially and systematically per time, space and command subordination, specific enough to delegate tasks i.e., what mission each commander is to achieve within set limits
The only "reset" here is Ryan's
He started off claiming that RF tried to "conquer Ukraine" and had failed to do after 2 days
Everything he's added since has just been thick layers of plaster & paint to cover the previous "assessment"
2/25 Russia, having ‘reset’ their theory of victory for their invasion of Ukraine, is building up its forces in the east. That said, they will continue strategic strikes across Ukraine, and remain alert to opportunities in the south. Image –
The above assertion's not even abstract hyperbole
Through April and even more recently, after nearly half a year’s escalated combat with Russia, mobilized Ukraine still sought boot donors to shod its troops, whether as recruits and conscripts, or already in training or the field
But the Gladius in this intelligence context is best known from pioneering work by Swiss Daniele Ganser
NATO stay-behind guerrilla network Gladio notoriously went public with Italy's terrorist outrages in the 1970s in a 'Strategy of Tension'. Counterparts existed across NATO