Matt Davies @MNormanDavies Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Matt Davies

@MNormanDavies

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OSINT Analyst since 1999. ORBAT, specialized war research. Info Ops. Linguist. Etymology fan. Author 'Indonesia's War over Aceh' Donate

https://t.co/hcf3TTTpQI

Joined April 2019

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

🧵 UKRAINE’S ZAPOROZHYE OFFENSIVE Operations Order (OPORD): ‘General Outline of Operations / Commander’s Summary’ It seems clear the Russian Army had explicit forewarning of plans for the AFU’s plans main recent attack That would all but guarantee disastrous failure for the AFU

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

Evidence & Precedent for Disqualification. Ex-BUMN Sec Said Didu: VP Candidate Ma'ruf on Board of State-Owned Bank Subsidiary still means Ma'ruf an official of State-Owned Firm; cites 3 mth jail & fine for State Subsidiary staff backing Pra-Sandi via FB

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Said Didu Punya Bukti Pejabat Anak Perusahaan Sama Dengan Pejabat BUMN

Polemik jabatan Cawapres Maruf Amin sebagai Dewan Pengawas Syariah di dua anak perusahaan Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) terus bergulir.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

US national Jerry Gray arrested for not respecting JKW, hurting his feelings. Oh well, could be worse: if pursuing "hate speech" against @wiranto1947 there'd be mass arrests at airports & smashed tourism sector, gutting of UN staff numbers

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Polisi Belum Bisa Merinci Kronologis Penangkapan WNA Yang Diduga Hina Jokowi

Aparat kepolisian dari Polres Metro Jakarta Berat meringkus seorang Warga Negara Asing (WNA) Jerry D. Gray yang diduga menyebarkan ujaran

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

🧵UKRAINE’S ARTILLERY. An Order of Battle study The AFU’s main indirect fire arm has an unusual “deconstructed” quality which defies normal military organization (like much of the AFU) TLDR: AFU artillery brigades have not deployed as actual brigades Some background first...

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

Amnesty investigates May Jakarta Violence: Extra-judicial killing of 10 & torture by ID Police "Election Security" by Wiranto; still same nexus as Police-TNI command responsibility May 98-Dili UNAMET 99 (tacit western backing in Fabian R2P intervention)

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Amnesty Internasional: Brimob Lakukan Penyiksaan Pada 21-22 Mei | merdeka.com

Amnesty menemukan dugaan penyiksaan dan penyisiran dengan brutal oleh anggota Brimob terhadap warga di Kampung Bali, Jakarta Pusat. Hal itu beranjak dari video viral seseorang disiksa oleh anggota...

www.merdeka.com

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

RIAU SMOKE HAZE CRISIS: CALL FOR DISASTER EMERGENCY STATUS; from Riau's Sayed Abubakar, DPR Committee VII (Environment, Energy, Tech) - emphasizes health & law enforcement needs [But Wiranto just said it wasn't really as bad as the media were reporting!]

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Makin Parah, Sayed Abubakar Minta Riau Ditetapkan Status Darurat Bencana Asap

GELORA.CO - Anggota Komisi VII DPR RI Dapil Riau 1, Sayed Abubakar A Assegaf, mendesak pemerintah segera menetapkan status "Darur...

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

Admin Law Expert Margarito K confirms BUMN subsidiaries ARE State-owned firms per BUMN Ministerial rule No 3, 2012: stock BUMN-owned; monies state-owned & remain so in business activity; BUMN Ministry sets director-supervisor boards & staff (inc. Ma'ruf)

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Status di BUMN Ma'ruf Amin Dibidik, Ini Kata Pakar Hukum Tata Negara

Perbaikan gugatan dari pemohon pasti akan diterima oleh MK.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

🧵UKRAINE'S MILITARY CRISIS: an Order of Battle study #RussiaUkraineWar How did Russia's army, with far fewer deployed troops than Ukraine's, expand territorial dominance in Ukraine far greater than it had on 24 February? Short answer? Ukraine’s army was too big for its boots

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

7 months

🧵UKRAINIAN MILITARY INTELLIGENCE (GUR) Child of NATO's Gladio Recent intrigues around GUR Chief Budanov's rise compel some review of his organization TLDR: It has both NATO (and Nazi) stamps literally all over it

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

"...Russian push in Lyman [area], 2.5 km from the village of Yampol, the entire 79th airborne brigade was surrounded. Ukrainians are surrendering en masse" [East flank of Lyman Pocket reduced? If so, Svyatogorsk-Slavyansk may become Falaise-like]

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

Election Monitoring Agency (Bawaslu) confirms Ma'ruf DID NOT meet prerequisite on UU7 2017 S 227p. Exhibit PK-135 shows KPU accepted Ma'ruf's candidacy but DID NOT check off PREREQUISITE (syarat) no 18 on resignation status. Clearly refers to Section 227p

BW soal Caleg Gerindra yang Diungkit Bawaslu: Ada Diskriminasi Perlakuan

BW mempersoalkan Bawaslu yang mengungkit caleg Gerindra soal 'karyawan anak perusahaan BUMN'. BW menilai ada diskriminasi perlakuan oleh Bawaslu.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

8 months

🧵RABOTINO POCKET: COLLAPSING THE BAG The extravagantly hyped AFU 2023 counteroffensive concentrated most of its flourishes on the Tokmak-Melitopol Axis ...springboard for a breathlessly awaited 'Crimean Beach Party' It became an operational cul de sac

@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

8 months

...and more blood to spill yet RuAF are shaping a couple of small kotels/pockets for direct fire from either side of that high ground Surviving AFU (and prob. some NGU 14 Bde too) would be scrambling for entrenchments just to the north. But in time they'd be like fish in a

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

🧵Ukrainian Nazis or 'the Rise and Fall of the Weird Reich' Pt 1 Not only Russians have long alleged that Kiev's post-coup regime not only tolerated Nazism but oversaw its revival to foment anti-Russian and other racist hatred and criminality NB: original jpeg creator unclear

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

"some small extension of the Russian lines" In which universe? To reiterate Russian mechanized forces just broke some of the toughest-defended anti-armor high ground since, say, Hill 112 & Bourgebus Ridge in Normandy Already happened a week ago

@PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

2 years

There have been some small extension of the Russian lines heading south of Izyum and towards Lyman, but the pace is such that unless Ukrainian forces are actually close to collapse, the chance of a large scale encirclement is very small.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

'PENCITRAAN' GIVETH - AND TAKETH AWAY: Not fair to focus on Jan Ethes wearing GUCCI bee loafers after @jokowi chided ID women for buying imported shoes #JanEthesSukaBarangImpor Grandson Jan Ethes sports BURBERRY slip-on sneakers going for just USD180-220

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Ramai Tagar #JanEthesSukaBarangImpor, Ada Apa?

Hari ini, Minggu (18/8/2019) jagat Twitter dihebohkan dengan unggahan tampilan Jan Ethes, cucu Presiden RI Joko Widodo (Jokowi).

www.cnbcindonesia.com

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Matt Davies

1 year

Road density is one thing Their claimed "battalion" pushes are absurd: up to FOUR reporting - by squads - almost simultaneously with PR snaps within a tight space of 5 kilometers Air imagery shows no such congestion Looks like desperate PSYOP - YellowBlue Palookaville edition

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@witte_sergei

Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺

1 year

@SteVonFTW Road density in this area is conspiring against the attacker, hard to either sustain the push or widen the gap, and Mariupol is a full 60 miles away.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

UKRAINIAN TROOPS' ANTI-CAMOUFLAGE FIELD UNIFORM AFU's conspicuous, lavish bright-blue adornments express crisis of blue-on-blue/"friendly fire" casualties in poor fire discipline & chaotic unit control An Airborne unit likely replenished with TrO call-ups So many aiming marks

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

STUDENTS SEAL OFF NATIONAL PARLIAMENT BUILDING (DPR): CLAIMED "TAKEN OVER"; reject Amendments to Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) Law & Criminal Code revisions as anti-democratic [later Jl Gatoto Subroto brought to standstill. Looks part of #jokowiMUNDUR ]

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

(INDONESIA REGIME CHANGE) AMBASSADORS KEEP VISITING DEFENCE MINISTER PRABOWO S: 3 IN 1 DAY. Further to previous high-level visits [time @DubesAustralia ignored corporatist Lowy/ANU experts' smears & stop this long-term embarrassment, sooner the better]

Dalam Sehari, Menhan Prabowo Dikunjungi Tiga Dubes

GELORA.CO - Menteri Pertahanan RI Prabowo Subianto mendapat kunjungan dari tiga perwakilan negara berturut-turut dalam sehari. Diungka...

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

"Explicit forewarning" may well appear by such confrontational Russian posture Given how the Dreizin OPORD holds up, and released c. a month before H-hour, we should not be surprised if RF forces had OPORD details down to brigade and even battalion-group levels too ie, granular

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@witte_sergei

Big Serge ☦️🇺🇸🇷🇺

1 year

This probably accounts somewhat for Ukraine losing many vehicles still in their approach columns. Clearly the AFU did not expect the screening line to fight so hard. To be fair, I didn't either. Thus, all the fighting is taking place miles north of where we expected it.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

MAJGEN (RETD) KIVLAN ZEIN ALLEGES PHYSICAL ASSAULT BY JUDICIARY HOSPITAL DOCTOR: "Aug-Sept I sought treatment, was refused..doctor hit me, knocked me down. Dr Wennas, E.Jakarta Judiciary Hospital" + a judge tried coercing guilty plea via sentencing offer

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Geger Pengakuan Kivlan Zen Dipukuli Dokter RS Kejaksaan

GELORA.CO - Terdakwa perkara kepemilikan senjata api ilegal, Mayor Jenderal TNI (Purn) Kivlan Zen, membuat pengakuan mengejutkan. Dia yang ...

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

Well that aged like a tub of yoghurt left out of the fridge for 2 weeks

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@ThreshedThought

Mike Martin MP

@ThreshedThought

2 years

Ha. Look at this. The Ukrainians are pushing NE the other side of Izyum too. Look out for Russian forces being surrounded in Izyum in next 24/48 hours.

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Matt Davies

6 months

🧵THE BAKHMUT CRUCIBLE Part 3 - Shell Game: Ukrainian Ground Forces' Unstable Command Structure Zaluzhny's replacement by Syrsky is a timely reminder to examine the AFU chains of higher command, which are extraordinarily flexible and irregular entities TLDR: Syrsky Schmyrsky

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

Text released appears to be quite genuine as part transcription and translation of an AFU OPORD summary It posted quite early to this URL, but doubtless elsewhere too >

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Dreizin Publishes Complete Ukrainian Battle Plan for Entire Zaporozhie Front - TheDreizinReport.com

Citizens: Do not try to plug Чё с ебалом? into Google Translate, it will be wrong. Чё с ебалом? means something roughly like, "Why the long faces?" But, much more rude. Please show your support for...

thedreizinreport.com

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

WAMENA: DOCTOR SOEKO MARSETIYO MURDERED IN RACE-HATE CRIME. 53y.o for past 5 years serving nearby Tolikara, killed by hacking to the back of the head [probably machete or axe], burns to the back [Dr Soeko had a family in "Javanese" Yogya: wife, kids]

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Dokter Soeko Wafat Saat Terjebak Kerumunan Massa di Kerusuhan Wamena

Dokter Soeko meninggal akibat cidera kepala berat dengan luka bacok di kepala bagian belakang dan luka bakar di bagian punggung.

regional.kompas.com

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

3 months

"If Putin wins..." But said in Guardian 28 Feb 2022 "Putin has already lost" Transhumanist, Trans-strategist, shape-shifting demon or...just someone who needs to be made to get a real job instead of being a worse-than-useless eater?

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@harari_yuval

Yuval Noah Harari

3 months

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine breaks the biggest taboo of the international order. Since 1945, no internationally recognized state was wiped off the map by external conquest. Russia is trying to do just that to Ukraine. Putin is following the imperial principle that any territory

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

LISSICHANSK POCKET Interim Summary - Russian Offensive to cross the Severskiy Donets 1.Serebryanka Axis 2.Grigorovka Axis 3.Dronivka Axis 4.Belogorovka Axis 5.Shipilovka Axis 6.Privillya Axis 7.Reported AFU Relief Effort/Plan 8.Yampol: opportunity crossing upon local AFU collapse

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

OOH NO! KPU NOT HAPPY AFTER 12 PROVINCES FAILED TO COMPLETE THEIR ELECTION COUNTS. After repeatedly saying results were final, even making official announcement a day early After, like, a month and a half. But "OK, Election was fine, nothing to see here"

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

BELOGOROVKA BRIDGEHEAD GeoLocation of CNN report & AFU UAV footage indicates phased RF expansion from Svitanok Flats, advanced SE via spur to flank of AFU defence of township's north Seems CNN visit in lull 10-11 May Intensified crossing operation indicated in FIRMS from 12th>

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Matt Davies

5 years

CALL THE ELECTRICITY POLICE! Forget electrical engineers, their technical education and knowledge of the existing power network & its capacity burdens POLRI can expand beyond their Social Media patrols Next charge PLN executive explanations as 'hoax'?

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Polri Telusuri Berbagai Kemungkinan Penyebab Padamnya Listrik Jawa-Bali

Polri ingin memastikan, apakah peristiwa itu disebabkan faktor gangguan teknis, kelalaian, faktor alam, hingga kemungkinan sabotase.

nasional.kompas.com

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

BELOGOROVKA BRIDGEHEAD: Update RF poss.Bn-strength estab. Sign ongoing UA interdict-fire, widening advance points 1. UA bridge claims unsubstantiated: bizarre censoring of own imagery 2. RF crossing unit seen intact 3.RF advance SE further indicated by recent fires (inc. off-map)

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

Whether via Russian sources, NATO dissidents or (likely) both, intent and effects would be the same The above feed here was by US veteran-commentator Jacob Dreizin, no ignoramus himself in these matters Text detail, although sanitized, seems too specific to have been his alone

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Matt Davies

1 year

Audit's in Illia: based on🇺🇦KIA detail and NATO-team tracking of RF formations Barely 15 Russian battalion-groups diverted & held equivalent of c.TWENTY🇺🇦BRIGADES NO attempt to enter Kiev (no need to) Russians blocked you on Warsaw & Zhitomir highways Your army lost back then

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@IAPonomarenko

Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦

1 year

I absolutely love the way Putin fans are now like: "Haha, what if now Wagner goes to Belarus, Kiev is screwed now, haha." Yes, my dear brainless hamsters, 16 months ago, Russia's best regular military forces tried and failed to even enter Kyiv and were defeated -- when Ukraine

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Matt Davies

5 years

Electoral Commission (KPU) takes sides! Publicly objects to Opposition point on VP Candidate Ma'ruf. Does KPU know: the Constitutional Court (MK) case is not a la English adversarialism; they're revealing their bias; they're influencing MK proceedings?

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

The OPORD detail’s release echoes Soviet troops before the legendary Operation Bagration, who openly made mass crossing & assembly points up to a week BEFORE H-Hour By then it was too late and too big for horrified German defenders to do much - if anything - to affect the result

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

11 months

The Destruction of 24 Mechanized Brigade (preview) Your claim that 24 Mech Bde lost c. 280 troops since SMO's start is absurd. Public Ukrainian obituary sources demolish that figure, indicating an averaged rate of killed to c.1,500 just by the end of July 2022

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@MarkUrban01

Mark Urban

11 months

WATCH: the first of our exclusive reports on @24th_brigade of the Ukrainian army explores the reality of fighting on the frontline & the challenges facing them as they try to gain an advantage over the Russians 1/3

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

The Russia-Ukraine War shows a prevalence and importance of artillery, a term usually meaning mortars, howitzers, rocket tubes, precision-guided munition and some long-range missile strike This thread discusses mostly the 2nd & 3rd above, but not exclusively It’s institutional

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

13 SERVING TNI SENIOR OFFICERS SUPPORT KIVLAN ZEN IN OPPOSING POLICE SEDITION & FIREARM CHARGES TNI HQ providing legal services via military lawyers from all 3 TNI branches, including MAJGEN Purnomo & BRIGGEN Wahyu Wibowo, 2 colonels, 5 LTCOLs, 4 majors

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Daftar 13 Perwira TNI Aktif Bantu Kivlan Zen Lawan Gugatan ke Polri

"Mabes TNI (sebagai kuasa hukum Kivlan),"

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

MINISTER PRABOWO VISITS PINDAD: LANDS BY HELICOPTER, TOURS IN ARMOURED CAR, INSPECTS ASSAULT RIFLES [prior to Philippines visit to promote arms export/project, & before 2nd Russian Ambassadorial visit Possible increased Indonesia-Russia defence coop?]

Kunjungi Pindad, Menhan Prabowo Pegang Senjata-Jajal Rantis Komodo

Menhan Prabowo Subianto mengunjungi PT Pindad hari ini. Prabowo sempat menjajal kendaraan taktis (rantis) Komodo hingga memegang senjata yang diproduksi Pindad.

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

The stuff of mutiny or even fragging This also happens when an army runs out of officers and experienced NCOs: surviving shell-hierarchies become indispensable, held back whether they want to lead or not

@snekotron

Dr.Snekotron

2 years

To all the men of Glorious Ukropina who laughed at Russian officers dying at the front, this is what happens when officers are cowards who do not lead by example. Here, men of the 57th Brigade confront a battalion commander who refuses to ship out to the front with them.

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Matt Davies

2 years

Ol' Jommers doing his Marvel Comics again Not a single question mark on the map! An old instructor once said: "If an Int overlay has no question marks it means 1 of 2 things: 1.All the info's confirmed as 100% true, accurate & up-to-date; or 2. It's fraud And I've never seen 1"

@JominiW

Iván Ramírez de Arellano, The Jomini of the West

2 years

6/ Let us look at the balance of forces currently engaged in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD & their likely mission set. The most recent geolocation data places at least 60x BTGs in the Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. 51x BTGs are arrayed from Izium to Popsana.

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Matt Davies

1 year

🧵Ukrainian Counter-offensive The Normandy Comparisons As Kiev's Summer 2023 campaign faltered repeatedly, a whole chorus of Western apologia arose to help feed and bolster the failure This was in direct parallel with Western largesse in continual supply of arms and ammunition

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Matt Davies

1 year

Artillery assumed high status in military cultures since its birth. The destructive technology of indirect fire nearly always dwarfed and out-ranged that of main rival arms infantry and cavalry It attracted huge investment and loathing: overrun gun crews could expect no quarter

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Matt Davies

1 year

Bonaparte was an artilleryman Napoleon could intuit movement for several corps' troops across a continent, knowing fully the destructive force at hand in a given time and place He did this the way experienced builders, plumbers or plasterers can quote a week-long job at a house

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Matt Davies

2 years

The map depicts at worst unsubstantiated nonsense, at best speculative musing based on 1) memory of WW2 Barbarossa/"Deep Battle", and; 2) Feb-Mar drives by Kiev/Chernigov/Sumy etc vs barely defended flanks Is the map's description yet more absurd? Is that why PPO omits source?

@PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien

@PhillipsPOBrien

2 years

And what has happened in the 2.5 months so far. Best to start with this map. Basically the Russians have dialled back enormously on their expectations (and frankly the expectations of others) that they would take a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.

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Matt Davies

1 year

Artillery’s importance as a device for victory meant that it could develop some of the best personnel, whether by selection or experience Whenever the infantry claim the greatest work ethic, get them to dig, camouflage, and haul ammo and water beside the gunners!

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

This release of detail seems a deliberate “show of knowledge”, a psychological tactic down to the level of individual prisoner interrogation, to demoralize or “break” a subject At levels of command and staff too, effects of such demoralization can be devastating if not decisive

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Matt Davies

5 years

'FRAUD A PART OF DEMOCRACY': Incumbent Team (TKN) Moeldoko's Campaign briefing slide, shown to Court as exhibit. TKN Defector Hairul Anas, nephew of ex-MK Mahfud MD, ex-Yusril's party PBB, testifies on TKN briefing. TKN witness Anas N inconsistent, possibly implicates Moeldoko

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Matt Davies

2 years

"It" - UA ability to conduct offensive operations - has already been tested in several AOs: N/NE Kharkov; W/NW of Izyum, and; across the Nikolaev-Kherson Front Either you failed to identify that fact, or you just prefer to keep schtumm about the results of said exams

@KofmanMichael

Michael Kofman

2 years

Kherson is where a future UA counter offensive could play out. Despite the present focus on the Donbas, economically and strategically Kherson is more significant, and it is where UA ability to conduct offensive operations will likely be tested in the future. 10/

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Matt Davies

1 year

The arm’s importance and technical sophistication mean that artillery officers and NCOs are often an army’s smartest Whenever the intelligence cell gets exclusive or lazy, or too clever by half, get an artillerist commander or chief of staff to scrutinize their work!

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

LYMAN CITYFIGHT Update, Higher-res FIRMS Traces & flare detection in Sentinel-2 City is thoroughly invested from all sides except SW-rear Intense action at SE indicates effort to cut off AFU breakout to south

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Matt Davies

5 years

PAPUA ETHNIC CLEANSING ULTIMATUM: "1 MONTH FOR NON-PAPUANS TO GET OUT OR WE SHOOT YOU" Purom Okiman Wenda threatens by phone: "We don't care if they're private business, public servants or 'Ojek' riders we'll shoot them..I ask governors to back..referendum

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Tentara PNPB Kasih Waktu Orang Non Papua Pulang ke Daerah dalam Satu Bulan

GELORA.CO - Tentara Pembebasan Nasional Papua Barat (TPNPB), dibawa Pimpinan komando Rakyat, Purom Okiman Wenda memberikan waktu da...

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

1 year

No. They "got off the beach" after the first day, most well before sunset. Indeed the airborne forces were never even on the beach In Ukraine SS members continued the war into the late 1940s because they were sore over who "won WWII"

@secretsqrl123

david D.

1 year

@squatsons you do know that it took 90 days to get off the beach in Normandy right???? so by your measurement hitler won WWII...

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

5 years

STATE-OWNED (BUMN) PERTAMINA PAYING 'MINISTER' LUHUT TO USE 11 FLOORS OF HIS OWN FIRM'S JAKARTA TOWER BLOCK. 100% conflict of interest, blatant takeover of public assets, zero consequences "Minister" of everything and/or whatever, actually Junta member

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Pertamina Pindah Kantor ke Gedung Milik Luhut

Gedung Sopo Del sendiri merupakan milik PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk yang sebagian sahamnya dimiliki Menteri Koordinator Bidang Kemaritiman Luhut Binsar

money.kompas.com

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@MNormanDavies

Matt Davies

2 years

How is Staryi Saltov a "strategic town"? Nothing goes through there Its bridge is blown c.80m open No enemy forces or installations worth mention No foreseeable potential for basing future operations And actual "strategic"? No production, administrative, trade centers or port

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Matt Davies

1 year

Three whole months now Their regard for Ukrainians can only be deemed psychopathic callousness, sacrificing them to preserve policy narrative and domestic prestige

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@JennyCafarella

Jennifer Cafarella

@JennyCafarella

1 year

The breakthrough deepens

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Matt Davies

1 year

Reinhard Gehlen was an artilleryman Whatever the Scharnhorst-born virtues of the German Wehrmacht, intelligence was rarely among them Gehlen reformed a weak, chaotic intelligence network, practically from scratch, to establish vast coverage of a fully mobilized & deployed USSR

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Matt Davies

1 year

Misses the MOST IMPORTANT lesson (unlearned): 13. Over-investment in Deception via Info Ops eventually becomes a Force Neutralizer & Force Divider. IOW "don't do Black PSYOP on yourselves" What a coincidental number there!

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@nicholadrummond

Nicholas Drummond

@nicholadrummond

1 year

Having followed the Russia's Special Military Operation for the last 16 months, very few new isights have come to light. Instead, we have re-learned a number of important older lessons. This list is by no means exhaustive.

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Matt Davies

2 years

(INDONESIAN NEWS #RussiaUkraineWar ) WESTERN MEDIA COVERS UP THE NEO-NAZI IDEOLOGY OF AZOV BATTALION & UKRAINE'S DREAMS OF LEADING A FINAL CRUSADE [Indonesia watching Western hypocrites who smeared its dissenters as "Nazis" - openly embrace the Real Thing]

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Media Barat Tutupi Ideologi Neo Nazi Batalyon Azov serta Cita-cita Ukraina Pimpin Perang Salib...

GELORA.CO - Sejak NATO terseret dalam perang Rusia-Ukraina, media-media Barat dituding tidak lagi kritis dalam menyajikan informasi. Media ...

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Matt Davies

2 years

"died after travelling to [UA] to fight alongside Ukrainian soldiers...to help troops battle...reportedly wanted to help Ukrainians fight..." But called "Humanitarian Aid worker" Is that routine cover now for (still officially outlawed) merc recruitment?

Australian Humanitarian killed in Ukraine

A Tasmanian father providing humanitarian aid in Ukraine has died while fighting Russian forces.

www.skynews.com.au

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Matt Davies

2 years

Ukraine made one of the World’s largest standing armies As Defence Minister & AFU Chief said in bellicose unison 13 Feb, Ukraine had "the most powerful army in Europe...absolutely ready to fight back”

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Matt Davies

2 years

They gave up land alright, far more than in 8 years' preceding Donbas warfare Russia's operational aims? 1. Consolidate ethnic-Russian Donbas incorporation especially by outflanking northern Lugansk 2. Water access and a land bridge for Crimea All mostly done by mid-2022

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Matt Davies

1 year

Some serious Plan-Trusting going on here

@randymot4

Randy Mott

1 year

UKRAINE WAR UPDATE: The goal is destruction of the Russian army. UKR is drawing out their reserves and chewing them up. The plan is working well. Taking geographic locations is the secondary effect. It will come when the time is right. #CounterOffensive The main breakthru attack

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Matt Davies

5 years

(REGIONAL SECURITY) CHINA'S NATUNA CLAIM: INDONESIAN MILITARY INCREASES ALERT STATUS. Serious effects from incursion by PRC Coast Guard & fishing vessels: PRC insists on its 9-Dash Line; RI's Natuna sea & air forces on alert [context for US IQ-IR strike?]

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Matt Davies

5 months

Chasov Yar has been AFU's main forward HQ ("Front Tac") and transit hub for nearly a decade now For RF patrols to so enter the township is akin to WW2 predecessors doing same in Vinnitsa or Rastenburg

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@squatsons

ayden

5 months

Ukrainian telegram admits the Russians have entered Chasiv Yar and that the overall situation in the front is grim, with Russian vehicles moving around “without resistance”. The need to stabilize the situation without repeating the Avdeevka disaster. “The enemy got hold of the

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Matt Davies

1 year

But inconsistency and irregular supply chains make for sclerotic circulation, and an organization increasingly inflexible due to its array of logistical anomalies Besides, improvization is often a sign of desperation, and one of the most dubious & overrated of military “virtues”

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Matt Davies

1 year

Of course, Dreizin and/or his interlocutors, could have conceivably created the information themselves from scratch No allegations here! But action at the front, and formation identities, show too much validation of detail to be remote prescience, let alone mere coincidence

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Matt Davies

3 months

🧵UKRAINE'S WAR DEAD & 24 MECH BRIGADE Comparing reported losses of commissioned officers Responding to @RadarFennec the 50:1 ratio (all force: 24 Mech) appears to hold up, at least for the early SMO period. N.B. - aircrew numbers still to be processed but so far only 7.5% at

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Matt Davies

2 years

KREMINNA SECTOR CROSSINGS - Update FIRMS indicates AFU registered arty fires (prob.not seen at swamp-river) 1.Belogorovka Bridgehead a.Confirmed several crossing points b.Confirmed Right Hook eastwards (then SE in re-entrant) 2.Indication intended/actual bridgehead NE Serebryanka

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Matt Davies

2 years

"But", I hear you say, "more and bigger tubes, ATGMs, AFVs, UAVs, gutsy troops PLUS mighty NATO & $$$, means more CAPABILITY!" Not necessarily Russian early success in Ukraine proves the old adage "the bigger they come, the harder they fall"

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Matt Davies

2 years

KHERSON-SOUTHWEST FRONT: Intensified RuAF activity in offensive action / local demonstration as indicated by: Fire patterns mostly in areas of AFU deployment Fires "advancing" in recent period Nikolaev evacuation/RuAF airstrikes Recent US Pres visit Confirmed new T62 units in AO

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Matt Davies

1 year

How do we know it was a feint? There was nothing to breach It involved battalions attacking Russian forward posts’ flanks, from the line of march, using company groups too AFU brigade entities spread across their enemy’s bulge at Zaporozhye Oblast’s border - literally marginal

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Matt Davies

5 years

(REGIME CHANGE) MINISTER PRABOWO GREETS MORE VISITS: UK, RUSSIA, JAPAN. UK Attache & cybersecurity, Russia ASEAN ambassador & Attache, Japan ambassador & Attache [Australia: better work out a plan...sooner than later. No need to keep talking to Mahfud MD]

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Termasuk Jepang, Menhan Prabowo Kembali Terima Kunjungan Tiga Dubes Dalam Satu Hari

GELORA.CO - Setelah menerima Duta Besar (Dubes) Korea Selatan, Rusia, dan Yordania pada Senin (4/11) lalu. Kali ini Menteri Pertahanan P...

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Matt Davies

5 years

5,000 PROTEST JKW RALLY AGAINST NEW LABOR LAW: WORKERS HARASSED, JOURNALISTS FORCED TO DELETE PHONE VIDEO Police not in official uniform but in white a la Jokowi campaign; even Antara journalist ordered to ignore scene, arrests, lawyers removed (fascism)

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Buruh Dibungkam dan Wartawan Diintimidasi Saat Pidato Jokowi

GELORA.CO - Supinah dan 14 orang kawannya berhimpitan di tiga unit taksi online, Jumat (16/8/2019) pagi. Mereka hendak ke Gedung MPR/DP...

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Matt Davies

2 years

Chasov Yar was already site of the Ukrainian HQ JFO (Joint Force Operational HQ) since long before Russia's 24 Feb attack IOW Ukraine's highest-level command center for the entire Donbas theater (reportedly hit hard early) "Military Target"? Understatement. It is a key AFU hub

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@MoonofA

Moon of Alabama

2 years

New on MoA NYT Ground Report Debunks NYT Claim Of Strikes Against 'Ukraine’s Civilians'

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Matt Davies

2 years

No Turns out the "UA authorities" themselves did not dare try to confirm destruction of the bridgehead just north of Belogorovka And likely simultaneous crossings in this porous easterly sector Predicament for AFU. Lissichansk Pocket

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Matt Davies

2 years

CLOSING THE LYMAN POCKET RuAF exploitation & pursuit from Yarova AFU withdrawals indicated from Sosnove & Svyatagorsk, (poss. also from Studenok) Infantry hvy wpns & ammo seized in Yarova, photographed in detail Poss. collapse & abandonment of township [good call @cpimentel986 ]

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Matt Davies

1 year

🧵 THE BAKHMUT CRUCIBLE Part 1 Ukrainian Logistics: Varicose Veins vs Interior Lines

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Matt Davies

8 months

The next thread will follow up to examine more closely how the AFU compromised its own counteroffensive It will also consider in more depth just why it did so

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Matt Davies

2 years

Such flexible, creative conduct by the Russian Army would not just be a “black swan” for NATO’s Too-Big-To-Fail Ukraine Project It would be a black day for their whole portfolio But it is entirely plausible given Russia devotes to its army a military railway corps

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Matt Davies

8 months

...and more blood to spill yet RuAF are shaping a couple of small kotels/pockets for direct fire from either side of that high ground Surviving AFU (and prob. some NGU 14 Bde too) would be scrambling for entrenchments just to the north. But in time they'd be like fish in a

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@squatsons

ayden

8 months

Ooofff, all that blood just to leave…

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Matt Davies

5 years

KIVLAN ZEIN DEMANDS WIRANTO PAY FOR 1998 JAKARTA MILITIA: lawyer Tonin cites Rp 8 Billion from Kivlan, only Rp 400 Million from Wiranto, Habibie confirmed non-budgetary Rp 10 Billion to Wiranto Tonin: writ also for Wiranto pressing sedition-plot charges

Ternyata, Ini Alasan Kivlan Zen Baru Gugat Wiranto Sekarang...

'Penangguhan enggak boleh. Jadi sudah kepalang tanggung, ya sudah, tagih saja (kasus masa lalunya),' kata Tonin.

nasional.kompas.com

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Matt Davies

1 year

How does this relate to the AFU artillery situation? The AFU artillery arm’s importance is confirmed by its size, one of the largest ever formed To trace the fate of such an entity takes time in a more challenging analytical task We can start with obituaries, or “blood trails”

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Matt Davies

1 year

One problem is that “artillery brigades” and rocket brigades (together called RFA), show a sparse casualty tally that is very discreet and displaced Anomaly is clear from quick comparison to line infantry brigades’ KIA traces, which would overlap to make map placenames illegible

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Matt Davies

1 year

The wider AFU (+ NGU and volunteer) force showed similar dispersal and dissipation of brigade strengths at the start of Russia’s SMO on 24 February 2022. Mechanized, Motor Rifle, Airborne and Marine brigades mostly deployed by constituent battalions far apart in frantic reaction

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Matt Davies

2 years

Kherson City has caught intensified long-range AFU artillery fire Per Law of Armed Conflict, military authorities are obliged to evacuate civilians from areas which are targets of fire, or likely to become such targets By your sophistry you confect an allegation of "genocide"

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Matt Davies

2 years

This assertion still holds with the Ukraine’s reclaimed territory along the Volchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum Axis this past week That line was a vital route/MSR in Russia’s first two operational phases But no longer so if their effort shifted via new MSR set away from new AFU artillery

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Matt Davies

7 months

AVDEEVKA is ready and waiting for you boyo We'll get a gofundme up and running for you (though you hardly need it as FBI-linked snitch)

@davidhogg111

David Hogg 🟧

7 months

These idiots pulling funding from Ukraine will soon find their kids and my generation on hot battlefields across Europe. I can’t understate how significant of an inflection point in the 21st century we’re at right now. We can’t abandon our ally.

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Matt Davies

1 year

"Europe's Ammunition" Only ammunition in the photo is RUSSIAN 7.62mm X54 rimmed with a non-disintegrating belt Is not Finland the only other "European" country making that at any military scale? Also, "ammunition brings peace" oxymoron suggests you have a bad marketing problem

@ASPI_org

ASPI

1 year

Europe’s ammunition will help bring a just peace in Ukraine | @JosepBorrellF |

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Matt Davies

2 years

BELOGOROVKA BRIDGEHEAD: Update 1.RF crossing confirmed destroyed at other site c.400m from Filtration Plant No FIRMS signature due to water/direct fire use 2.Crossing c.1.1km nth poss.destroyed by AFU arty 3.RF SF poss. infil & raids vs RAS & facilities Shipilovka, Pryvilya etc

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Matt Davies

11 months

Yes, offering a large-scale Suez trap knowing many Israelis will be screaming to go in Just as the whole op seems to have based H-Hour on the 50th anniversary of the thoroughly planned break and grab of the Bar Lev Line History rhymes not repeats, but sometimes in exact rhythm

@ArmchairW

Armchair Warlord

11 months

I think it's quite likely that Hamas' end-game in this operation is goading the Israelis into an all-out invasion of the Gaza Strip - something they've shied away from (for good reason!) for twenty years now. It would be a bloodbath fought on Hamas' terms and on their home turf.

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Matt Davies

1 year

But sources’ detail on casualties show that public releases have a disproportionate weight of officers and NCOs compared to common soldiers i.e., 24 to 34! These ratios are conspicuously suspect, even by standards of Ukraine’s obvious under-reporting of own casualties in general

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Matt Davies

7 months

And not just "NATO's stamp" though it has that twice by way of direct branding

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Matt Davies

1 year

A part Dreizin’s release missed is feint attacks. Why? Higher-level attacks usually run feints to put an enemy off balance & distract from the actual main effort or target Early SMO did efficient feints by Kiev: barely 15 Russian battalions drew up to 20 AFU brigade equivalents

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Matt Davies

1 year

But it is not too detailed The Dreizin text reads as OPORDs should: flowing in general outline, at once sequentially and systematically per time, space and command subordination, specific enough to delegate tasks i.e., what mission each commander is to achieve within set limits

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Matt Davies

2 years

The only "reset" here is Ryan's He started off claiming that RF tried to "conquer Ukraine" and had failed to do after 2 days Everything he's added since has just been thick layers of plaster & paint to cover the previous "assessment"

@WarintheFuture

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

2/25 Russia, having ‘reset’ their theory of victory for their invasion of Ukraine, is building up its forces in the east. That said, they will continue strategic strikes across Ukraine, and remain alert to opportunities in the south. Image –

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Matt Davies

2 years

The above assertion's not even abstract hyperbole Through April and even more recently, after nearly half a year’s escalated combat with Russia, mobilized Ukraine still sought boot donors to shod its troops, whether as recruits and conscripts, or already in training or the field

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Matt Davies

7 months

But the Gladius in this intelligence context is best known from pioneering work by Swiss Daniele Ganser NATO stay-behind guerrilla network Gladio notoriously went public with Italy's terrorist outrages in the 1970s in a 'Strategy of Tension'. Counterparts existed across NATO

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