Douglas @MMTmacrotrader Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

Douglas

1 year

The MMT Macro Trader Starter Pack - Data Driven Applied MMT Analysis Videos: Trading Employment Inflation Rates Tweets/🧵 Unemployment Inflation

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵 1/11

8

21

77

15

18

73

Last Seen Profiles

@Florence9774

@2Monsterfou

@goblokdiaada

@akinakinozu_Fan

@HaoyaQ28544

@RiusPlay

@lavieenfay

@FFelipefavaron

@seldom

@luxlifeblog

@BestMidwestern

@st_moooo

@Ti_Man40N

@dro1of1

@go3cloud

@OldPrague

@StyleByco

@TitoCrissien

@AustinKellerman

@LUST444LAV

@mcaleau

@Las_Vegas555

@ErikaCorrea555

@takeherblood

@Official_HASHAR

@YourBranchNews

@MelitBut

@Rebrickable

@sandarasi

@nikinikizan

@blvnkf1ve

@stw_pdg

@takoyaki_dayo_

@ibubohay2

@bonnie88pitcher

@gurumo_

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

Unfortunately, this clip is being politicized. The issue is very few economists or politicians on either side of the aisle understand monetary operations. MMT does, which is why it’s the best lens to understand the economy.

96

70

285

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

MMT: money starts with the government imposing tax liabilities Everyone else: MMT says governments don’t need to tax in order to spend money MMT: 🤷‍♂️

24

40

210

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

26 days

Bitcoin is nothing more than leveraged tech. So yes, fiscal drives that as well. The macro alarmists are starting to figure it out!

Lyn Alden

@LynAldenContact

27 days

Tell me you want to pump my bitcoin bags without telling me.

68

86

1K

68

23

210

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

What Causes Inflation? Monetarist normies will tell you government spending & money supply, but they are wrong! Only #MMT understands this, and the data proves it. So let’s do a little data science to see what the real cause of inflation is! A thread ...🧵 1/10

19

61

205

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

27 days

MMT Explains: Why BIG Deficits are BULLISH

42

41

203

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

7 months

He might be the statistics GOAT, but wow is his macro terrible. US debt payments are not a burden on the private sector, its income and they're a net financial asset add to the private sector.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

@nntaleb

7 months

Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress). Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures. On

144

554

3K

34

37

189

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

It’s almost as though Public Deficit = Private Sector Savings. Maybe that #MMT stuff was on to something.

13

50

180

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

The Austrian Business Cycle: 1) Make countless predictions of dollar collapse and market crash 2) Complain about deficits and bubble economy 3) Whine about MMT to get readers to forget about failed predictions 4) Repeat Step 1

Daniel Lacalle

@dlacalle_IA

5 months

MMT is fake economics. @mises

41

189

23

41

163

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

23 days

This is what a decade+ of "fiscal responsibility" gets you. German national debt is effectively unchanged since 2008. While macro alarmists and permabears cower in fear over large US deficits, MMT knows what kills growth and its not too much fiscal.

Michael A. Arouet

@MichaelAArouet

24 days

Eye-opening chart, just in 2011 German GDP was about twice as big as GDP of California, now they are about the same. Germany is a country with industry from last century, grotesque overregulation, desolate infrastructure, lack of innovation and green paranoia. What a pity.

311

1K

6K

27

37

160

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

Important to point out that MMT is politically agnostic. MMT is the proper description of fiscal and monetary systems and is the necessary foundation for building accurate & predictive economic models. The government is not financially constrained unless the constraint is

Robert P. Murphy

@BobMurphyEcon

6 months

If anybody cares, my personal opinion is that THIS is the single most important claim--emanating from the MMT camp of course--that sound money defenders need to rebut. And I warn you, people like @StephanieKelton are witty and charming, so you can't just say, "Duh, inflation!"

63

19

160

27

145

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

No recession in sight There is no better indicator for recession risk then Real Deficit Spending. Not only are we not at risk, but we are accelerating away from the 'risk zone' thanks to the massive increase in interest income from higher rates. Only #MMT gets this.

24

25

136

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

Jason Furman

@jasonfurman

6 months

Core CPI came in high for the eighth month in a row. Annual rates: 1 month: 4.4% 3 months: 4.2% 6 months: 3.9% 12 months: 3.8% For perspective, the 3/6/12 month rates higher than any time from 1992-2019. Inflation remains unusually high.

51

219

622

14

20

134

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

Imagine being a deficit hawk since Reagan was elected: +$34T in debt And... SPX Up 4,000% DXY Up 18% Fed Funds brought to 0% for nearly a decade Keep telling yourself MMT is wrong, it makes this game easy

Barchart

@Barchart

1 month

JUST IN 🚨: U.S. National Debt surpasses $35 Trillion for the first time in history

129

684

2K

18

16

133

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

Markets in free fall (just an DeepMMT expected!) The Fed still has it backwards & MMT still has it right!

24

35

127

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

MMT 101: Government Deficits Add Financial Assets to the Private Sector. Any and all coherent macro analysis must begin from this tautology.

11

30

123

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

There is no better predictor of a recession than government spending. Only #MMT gets this. Cut spending, get a recession.

14

39

125

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

I know this ship has sailed but inflation was transitory. While the rest of the macro world is solely focused on the Fed, if you actually want to know where inflation is headed follow the supply.

13

22

122

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

3 months

The federal debt is owned by, not owed by, the American people. That's $106,060 per person at an interest rate of ~5%. You get the accounting backwards and you're a perpetual doom and gloomer, you get it right and you understand why the US has been booming for the past 18 months

18

33

120

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

If you invested that $1 in the Dow Jones, 90 years ago, it would now be worth $586. It's almost like government spending lays the foundation for the private sector and promotes the expansion of free markets and free enterprise. Few understand this. Learn #MMT

James Lavish

@jameslavish

1 year

If you were born 90 years ago, congratulations. The US dollar has lost over 96% of its value since the day you were born, and is now worth about the same as 4 cents would have been to you that day.

95

245

814

28

118

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

3 months

Made it the most desired, demanded, held, traded liquid asset in all of human history.

Mises Institute

@mises

3 months

The number one issue in America is inflation. Now, more than ever, its time to answer the question: What Has Government Done To Our Money? Get YOUR COPY today for free:

18

96

384

16

14

114

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

The irony of 'small government' types complaining about govt deficits. 🤦‍♂️ A govt in surplus is a govt removing wealth from the private sector, it means the priv sector is in deficit to fund the govt.

21

114

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

11 months

The Fed is the monopoly price setter of rates. The curve is market expectation of Fed actions. The Fed sets rates based on Growth, Employment, Inflation. Rate hikes add interest income to Priv Sect supporting growth, income and rising prices Its a reinforcing cycle. Learn #MMT

21

25

115

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

The economy is strong because we’re running a large deficit. Today’s deficit does not impact our ability to respond to future crises.

Geiger Capital

@Geiger_Capital

5 months

If the economy is so strong, and unemployment is so low, why are we currently running a crisis level deficit? This is when we should be paying off the debt, preparing for the next crisis. Not spending and stimulating like we are in a depression.

35

45

257

25

26

114

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Interesting that the ZIRP decade was the only period without a discernible credit boom over the past 50 years. 🤔 And yet the vast majority of econ/finance still believe ZIRP/QE was free money & stimulative, I wonder why?

9

25

107

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

For over a decade, many said QE was responsible for the bubble of all bubbles even though it’s literally just an asset swap with no net asset creation. Now, we point out that the government is a net payer of interest on its debt and creates new assets at a rate of $2m/minute

15

21

108

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

I've been in the lab all day. Cooking up some insane #MMT Deep Learning models. The results have been mind-blowing. This is the work the Monetarists/Austrians/Neoclassicals refuse to do. I'll be sharing soon!

4

6

105

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

If your argument is that “Money Printing” and #MMT policies have caused the persistent inflation than you need to explain the data. Fiscal Flows (net govt spending) collapsed starting in late 2021 and are just now recovering while inflation has remained high.

13

31

103

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Remember when everyone knew that QE/ZIRP would cause runaway inflation? And now the same people are telling us higher rates/QT will slow inflation. How's that working out? Only #MMT gets this.

12

18

97

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Physics cause car crashes. Change my mind.

Crimson Suppository

@FactsRedpill

5 months

@MMTmacrotrader MMT increases wealth inequality. Change my mind.

10

0

1

12

10

97

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

11 months

I wonder if anything bad happened in 2000 or 2008 when those lines were closest together? 🤷‍♂️ Learn #MMT folks, then you wont look like 🤡 making posts like this.

Tax Foundation

@TaxFoundation

11 months

Outside of the pandemic years, this year’s federal deficit of $2 trillion is the highest in U.S. history. While tax revenue has increased ~28% since the pre-pandemic year 2019, spending has increased ~46%. Annual deficits are headed towards $3 trillion over the next few years.

16

37

60

15

17

93

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

11 months

Boom! GDP 4.9% - Only applied MMT saw this coming. The mainstream had it backwards the entire time. Higher rates added $1T+ in additional interest income to the private sector since the 100% recession calls. Higher rates =/= tightening. Learn #MMT

Bloomberg

@business

2 years

A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months.

331

181

463

11

26

94

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

7 months

6 month DeepMMT track record. This is why MMT will win. Above all else, AppliedMMT is a scientific approach to economics, truly predictive macro economics.

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Today, it anticipates a pullback through October. DeepMMT predicts 26 forward weekly SPX returns. The data inputs include: fiscal data, bank flows, monetary data, inflation data, employment data, current accounts and more. It was written in Python using Keras/Tensorflow. 2/6

2

28

15

14

94

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

Why this time is different. An applied MMT analysis of Friday's surging unemployment data 👇

11

12

95

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

26 days

5

12

94

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

This is demonstrably false. Government spending INCREASES investor confidence. Government spending adds to net private sector financial assets. If you're going to do an MMT hit piece, at least look at the data first. Please. Just a little data science will go a long way!

13

23

89

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

11 months

Higher rates have added trillions in interest income over the past 18 months. Jobs data like todays makes it clear that this money is making its way through the economy. Only MMT was making this argument 18 months ago, now the rest of macro is finally catching up. Learn #MMT

19

28

89

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Can someone please help me define unsustainable? What is an unsustainable path? No one can seem to show me what this actually is, just one example please?!

Bloomberg

@business

5 months

The US debt outlook is fragile. Bloomberg Economics ran a million forecast simulations. Results for 88% of them show borrowing on an unsustainable path

101

204

444

47

12

91

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

8 months

Macro bears, its been 661 days since the yield curve inverted and no recession in sight. When do you admit applied MMT was right? Higher rates fuel govt spending, which fuel priv sect profits which fuel growth. Any other explanations?

21

20

90

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Admittedly this is the difference between applied MMT and Austrian economics. MMT critiques Austrians for their poor track record and they just point to their theory. Austrians critique MMT for their theory but we just point to our track record. What's more important to you?

Per Bylund

@PerBylund

5 months

Critiquing Austrian economic theory for not predicting exact economic outcomes is much like critiquing geometry for not predicting the exact number of triangles in the world.

45

73

379

26

13

88

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

Sorry macro bears, but we're far from a bubble. Asset bubbles form during periods of contracting fiscal and accelerating private credit expansion. The bubble pops when the private credit acceleration stops. The level of PrivDebt/GDP determines the magnitude of the crash.

6

15

89

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Total Private Sector Saving per Person is also $94,000 - What a crazy coincidence! I think the only thing owed here is an explanation of why the Cato Institute still doesn't understand basic fiscal and monetary concepts.

Cato Institute

@CatoInstitute

1 year

The total U.S. federal debt is $31.5 trillion—120% of gross domestic product (GDP). That means every person in the U.S. owes $94,000—so far. #CatoEcon

60

16

25

7

27

88

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Rate hikes are insidious - They drive prices higher for those who don’t have money while supplying risk free income for those who do. Only #MMT understands this. Debate all you want the merits of the stim checks but at least they increased wealth for the bottom 50% not the top 1%

13

30

85

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Loans Create Deposits – This is a core tenet of #MMT and a grossly misunderstood dynamic in economics and finance – Here is a simple balance sheet operation to understand how banks create money and a brief introduction to the effects of this process 1/5

11

20

84

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Watching the post hoc analysis on the economy right now is both hilarious and maddening at the same time. If you have to say "In theory, this should happen" and it doesn't happen, the first step should be to reassess your theory. The second step is to learn #MMT

7

21

86

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

DeepMMT launched 1 year ago. To say that it has exceeded my expectations would be an understatement. I've QT this post with various posts I've made over the past year to see its track record over time. As for right now, DeepMMT has been very skeptical of the SPX recently, seeing

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

7 months

6 month DeepMMT track record. This is why MMT will win. Above all else, AppliedMMT is a scientific approach to economics, truly predictive macro economics.

15

14

94

8

13

85

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 months

I know I've been a bit quiet recently, but when DeepMMT is this accurate what else is there to say? The more I develop DeepMMT, the more I realize how key MMT really is to unlocking deep learning for macro. It's all about the framework.

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

DeepMMT launched 1 year ago. To say that it has exceeded my expectations would be an understatement. I've QT this post with various posts I've made over the past year to see its track record over time. As for right now, DeepMMT has been very skeptical of the SPX recently, seeing

8

13

85

10

16

81

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

If you're feeling emotionally distressed by the growing national debt and the burden that your share of that debt will be left to the next generation to deal with, let me help. I will gladly take on the entirety of your share, personally, and relieve your worries. DMs are open.

14

13

81

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

This time is different. While unemployment is accelerating, the underlying dynamics that cause accelerating unemployment to be a recession signal are not present.

13

12

81

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

Mainstream: “Government deficits cause inflation.” MMT: “Not necessarily. It depends how the money is spent. For example, choosing to spend an additional $1T a year in interest payments could very well be inflationary." Mainstream: “Hold your horses. What about the marginal

13

5

80

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Warren just shared the cheat code.

Warren B. Mosler

@wbmosler

5 months

@GeorgeGammon Reserves (checking accounts at the Fed), Tsy secs (savings accounts at the Fed) + cash in circulation

3

2

60

8

10

80

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Want the best Bull case for '23 one that only #MMT understands: A massive wave of billions in free $ is set to hit the private sector via interest payments from the Govt. Before we understand why this will be a + for stocks we need to understand what caused the '22 selloff 1/6🧵

7

27

79

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

The Goal: Build a deep learning neural network using only sectoral balances to predict the unemployment rate. Why? To see if core MMT data can explain unemployment and validate a deep learning architecture for further macro & market analysis. An MMT Research 🧵 1/11

8

21

77

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

One man's debt spiral is another man's surplus spiral 🤯😱

Richard A. Stern

@RichAStern

5 months

Tell me you're in a debt spiral without telling me you're in a debt spiral 🤯😱

44

108

390

9

14

74

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

The government spends first, then issues trsys second. There are few who understand this obvious truth. You can tell who they are because they have been long stocks all year making a killing and are now running victory laps non-stop on twitter. Learn #MMT folks.

5

8

74

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Why Haven't Rate Hikes Caused a Recession? Because Higher Rates: 1) Increase the Term Structure of Prices & Future Cost of Doing Business 2) Accelerate Income Demands 3) Supply Additional Interest Income to Private Sector, Which Supports Growth Only #MMT gets this. 1/4

10

21

71

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

I was going to come up with something like "I wish this was the case, it would have saved me all those years reading Rothbard, Mises etc..." but then I realized what he really means here is that you accept the Austrian claims on faith, you're an Austrian only if you never demand

Per Bylund

@PerBylund

9 months

@MMTmacrotrader Douglas, you were never an Austrian.

2

1

20

12

7

73

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Fiscal. The reason everyone (except MMTers) missed this rally is because they're not paying attention to the fiscal flows. You don't need a 25 tweet thread to understand this, just 1 tweet and 1 word. Fiscal.

5

13

73

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

It was only the applied MMT approach that saw this as bullish in late 2022. Amazingly, no ones seemed to learn anything in 2023 as its still only the applied MMT approach that continues to see this as bullish. Learn #MMT

Disruptor ⚡️

@DisruptorStocks

9 months

🇺🇸 US Interest Payments just surpassed Defense/War Spending

11

34

84

4

15

73

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

What's Next in Markets & Modeling MMT w/ System Dynamics

3

13

73

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 month

Amazing work by Ty, absolutely world class macro! Imagine if we joined forces, deep learning + system dynamics, MMT + heterodox, that might just be unstoppable😏

Relearning Economics

@RelearningEcon

1 month

I have released my nation economic model simulator on the Relearning Economics Patreon, you can find that link on my profile. The model is the basis for my upcoming book Relearning Economics. It makes a rather fun flight simulator as well. See Video.

10

24

92

2

9

72

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Deficits are unsustainable seems to be the biggest macro concern right now, to better understand: Can anyone give me an example where a nation which only issues debt & taxes in its own currency & doesn't peg/back its currency had runaway unsustainable deficits? 1/2

18

8

72

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Credit expansion accelerating FAST! This should come to no surprise to those who have been following along, but this is playing out exactly as I've explained over the past 18 months. The rate hikes were stimulative. Applied MMT called it.

15

10

73

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

If you define money creation as inflation then all investment is inflationary. This is the genius of the applied MMT approach. Instead of demanding that big govt step in and stop investment we simply follow the flows and realize the resulting growth as an opportunity.

Lyn Alden

@LynAldenContact

5 months

MMT proponents often say that a public sector deficit is a private sector surplus. Well, yeah. A surplus of money. That's why it's inflationary. 🤷‍♀️

152

140

2K

26

6

72

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 months

DeepMMT does it again!

4

9

72

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

2023 Nonfarm Payroll Prints: 9 out of 12 months better than expected +502k above consensus for the year Sorry Macro Bears, but it's time to learn #MMT

9

7

70

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

This is the sort of question you ask when you don't understand what money is, how money works, and is the reason why MMT matters. When the govt spends, it adds net financial assets to the priv sector. When the Fed raises interest rates, it increases what the govt has to spend.

Fabian Wintersberger

@f_wintersberger

6 months

Why is bank credit growth so little if interest rates aren't restrictive?

10

5

21

11

14

69

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

10 months

Let’s Debunk @BobMurphyEcon here (and prove MMT is right while doing so). The heart of the claim is Mises understanding of rates and the credit/business cycle. The Mises/ABCT argument is that lower rates drive credit expansion higher and higher rates pop the bubble. If this were

Robert P. Murphy

@BobMurphyEcon

10 months

As I explained in my civil and useful discussion with @MMTmacrotrader (link in next tweet), from an Austrian perspective I think there's a reason for this correlation. Think about it: If Mises were 100% right about biz cycle, you'd see expansionary booms with high tax receipts

11

12

147

25

17

67

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

7 months

Federal Debt to GDP has nearly TRIPLED since the GFC. In the meantime, SPX up 640%, DXY up 45%, GDP nearly doubled, 10 year yield flat. Only applied MMT gets this 😉

10

8

66

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

This is why evidence matters. This is why data matters. This why your macro must be empirically driven if your goal is to actually understand markets. Go look at 2000, 2008 or 2022, those were fiscal collapses, those were the times for fear. This is why you learn MMT.

Peter St Onge, Ph.D.

@profstonge

6 months

Fiscal collapse accelerates as Treasury issues $7 trillion of debt in just 3 months. That matches the worst of Covid -- no pandemic needed. And it's double the previous record that had stood for 231 years.

185

2K

4K

8

67

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

Wait... you're telling me that the camp that's been calling for the collapse of the US dollar and hyperinflation for 30+ years and predicted 60 of the past 2 recession is unwilling to revise its theory in light of new evidence?!?!

Per Bylund

@PerBylund

6 months

Economic laws are not derived from empirical data; they help us understand empirical data.

20

56

322

10

16

67

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

@CarlitosMMT I remember the exact day, where i was, and what i was doing when I listend to it the first time. I would work out before I got in the office, and I was at the gym, warming up on the elliptical, getting ready to lift, needless to say I never left the elliptical and listen to the

11

18

67

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Loans Create Deposits - The money multiplier is just useless, hard stop. Learn #MMT Paul

Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

3 years

Indeed. The money multiplier is a useless guide in a near-zero rate environment, where banks typically have ample reserves. And we've been in that environment since 2008. But there's a funny thing about the concept's history 1/

13

90

345

9

15

65

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

26 days

Average rate on outstanding Treasuries vs Fed funds. Not that any amount of cutting would be bullish, but the avg rate on trsys is still catching up to fed funds meaning interest income growth should keep happening with a 25bps cut. Probably take > 100bps to change things.

13

9

64

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

Slowly but surely the rest of the world is figuring out what applied MMT was explaining would happen 18 months ago. 🧾👇 Higher rates makes things more expensive, they also supply the necessary income to support the higher prices.

Rick Rieder

@RickRieder

4 months

To elaborate on my interview last week on @BloombergTV , as well as my response to @elonmusk , a thread. Restrictive policy rates have succeeded in slowing the rate-sensitive segments of the U.S. economy (including goods inflation), but a >5% Fed Funds rate is not doing much to

48

156

681

15

14

65

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

Taxes are no fun. But federal tax receipts tell us a wealth of information about the current state of the macro economy. Tax receipts correlate to growth, employment, and the credit cycle. Higher tax receipts mean more business activity. While tax receipts aren’t causal, they

7

12

65

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

Far from defying expectations, this outcome is right inline with an MMT understanding of rate policy and its effects on the macro economy. If you've been following MMT-Fintwit for the past year you know why this is and why only MMT gets it.

5

12

64

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

14 months of rate hikes and BOOM 🚀 housing surges! Neoclassicals are dumbfounded. Monetarist are stupefied. Austrians are bewildered. Only #MMT gets this.

11

62

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

3 months

The inverted yield curve confused everyone expect the applied MMT camp who knew it was a signal of the boom to come & not a recession. MMT was right & here's why 1 - Fiscal has been and was always the dominate factor. 2 - The Fed works pro-cyclically not counter-cyclically. In

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

3 months

BREAKING: The US Treasury yield curve has been inverted for 702 days, the longest streak in bond market history. The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has turned negative on July 6, 2022, 22 months ago. The previous record was made in the late 1970s and lasted

41

532

2K

12

14

64

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

US Monthly Treasury Statement dropped for February, and flows continue to accelerate! February, historically, is one of the largest deficit spending months and Feb 2024 did not disappoint. $296 Billion in net financial asset added to the private sector. The applied MMT

3

11

64

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

What no cuts really means: Continued waves of interest income to private sector Continued upward price structure support Continued surprises to the upside Continued employment strength Only a matter of time before they signal hikes again. Playing out exactly as MMT expected.

5

13

62

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

8 months

Bingo! Deficits grew, inflation cooled, and growth soared. This only makes sense through the MMT lens, and not only that, MMTers were calling for this exact reality a year before it happened while everyone else was calling for a recession.

Stephanie Kelton

@StephanieKelton

8 months

My interview in the Financial Times @FT today. Stephanie Kelton: ‘Inflation has come down in spite of the Fed, not because of it’

7

62

149

3

28

61

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

6 months ago I made the bull case. While the world saw a recession, I saw a bull market in the making. MMT, first and foremost, is a framework for analysis. And its the MMT framework, that if understood and applied, can give you an edge. Since my call: SPX +8%, NDX +20%

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Want the best Bull case for '23 one that only #MMT understands: A massive wave of billions in free $ is set to hit the private sector via interest payments from the Govt. Before we understand why this will be a + for stocks we need to understand what caused the '22 selloff 1/6🧵

7

27

79

12

16

62

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

4 months

Interesting to see the 'MMT says nothing new' crowd also claim QE is money printing/monetization etc. Start in a world without a govt sector, only a private sector, where loans create deposits and tell me how you get the govt borrowing to spend. Issuing reserves is required to

25

7

62

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Deficit Spending decelerating slightly in March but still growing YoY and supportive of a bullish market at a mid-long time horizon. A core pillar of the applied MMT framework is that deficit spending adds net financial assets to the private sector, supporting asset prices.

8

7

62

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

7 months

That April tax drain is looking like its going to be massive. This will put a dent in the strong fiscal flows we've had for the past year now. It'll be a wait and see how the flows end up but we could be setting up for a pretty bearish move heading into April/May.

CBS News

@CBSNews

7 months

The IRS said it is poised to reap hundreds of billions of dollars of additional tax revenue by going after overdue and unpaid taxes, far beyond what was previously anticipated, thanks to funding from the Inflation Reduction Act.

199

1K

4K

8

9

61

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

I've been told "MMT doesn't say anything new"

FT World News

@ftworldnews

5 months

US deficit poses ‘significant risks’ to global economy, warns IMF

3

1

3

6

61

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

Stephanie Kelton

@StephanieKelton

6 months

Two years later… American Rescue Plan Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill CHIPS & Science IRA 🇺🇸 fastest growing G7 economy Unemp rate < 4% for 2 yrs running Keynes > Hayek

96

248

1K

1

8

59

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

It means the Fed has it backwards. Higher rates are stimulative. Learn #MMT

Heisenberg

@Mr_Derivatives

9 months

What does it mean when Bitcoin is hitting multi year highs, Stocks are hitting multi year highs, and Gold is hitting all time highs? Need answers.

434

40

743

11

8

60

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

10 months

E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.

@RealEJAntoni

10 months

This isn't some random crypto coin, meme stock, junk bond, or 3rd world country's currency - it's the losses at the Fed. The people w/ a money printer somehow managed to lose money. Billions of dollars...

153

657

2K

7

2

58

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

This one's for the #MMT 🐐 himself @wbmosler Deficit growth is 18% higher w/ net interest paid by the Fed. A truly shocking number. Regressive as hell, but a massive addition nevertheless.

9

10

59

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Alright macro bears, its officially Q2 2024 & no recession in sight. Growth stronger than expected, inflation warm but in check, employment robust. What's the play here? Are you still right and MMT just got lucky, or you ready to update your theory in light of new evidence?

16

12

59

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

Bitcoin benefits from the same fiscal and bank flows that the SPX does. While I'm far from a crypto-bug myself, its not too surprising to see stocks and bitcoin march in lockstep from an applied MMT approach.

8

5

59

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

As expected the macro bears are rearing their heads today. But everything is playing out exactly as expected. Historically fiscal flows collapse in April due to tax season, putting downward pressure on stocks. But have no fear flows will return soon!

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

5 months

Flows are collapsing into April and we're well overdue for a break in this rally. Likely to see a sizeable pop in volatility over the coming weeks. Permabears will come out of hibernation in droves. BUT do not listen to them, this is fully expected given the structural flows 1/2

7

4

43

4

13

59

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

1 year

6 months later and we're still accelerating 🚀 The BEST leading indicator of a bull market is acceleration in government spending. This is #MMT 101 but is missed by the majority of traders/investors - exploit it while you can!

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Things are starting to get very bullish🐂 Ignore #MMT at your own peril - but the data speaks for itself. When government spending accelerates, markets will follow. Just posted the full macro update on patreon.

3

10

40

11

15

58

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

It's almost like rate hikes are having an opposite effect from what was expected. I wonder if anyone has written anything on this 🤔

5

7

55

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

9 months

2023 will go down as the largest fiscal expansion that did not immediately follow a recession since WWII. If you're wondering why stocks, growth, employment and everything else did better-than-expect this year, look no further.

4

9

58

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

7 months

CPI, Jobs, Growth, Retail all hotter than expect so far in 2024. Higher rates are expansionary, its that simple. This is a pillar of the applied MMT approach. Higher rates add additional interest income to the private sector, supporting the higher term structure of prices.

10

7

57

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

2 years

Better than expect 🤔 Higher rates = High Govt spending via interest paid. Higher Govt Spending = 'better than expected' growth. Only #MMT gets this. Now, instead of giving that free money to people who already have money, lets start using it for truly productive purposes.

6

22

57

Douglas

@MMTmacrotrader

6 months

If I had a track record half as bad as this dude I certainly wouldn't be taking shots at the 🐐 @wbmosler

Per Bylund

@PerBylund

6 months

MMT's cutesy world, which takes a mere practice and pretends it makes a valid theory of the economy, is one of the greatest dangers of our time. Let's hope it remains obscured and marginalized. Or stay tuned for the undoing of the Great Divergence.

19

22

154

9

3

55