Kiva Dickinson @KivaDickinson Twitter profile

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 months

Health and wellness is one of the most compelling and important areas of investment right now 3 key reasons 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

The change in alcohol consumption is arguably the biggest new brand opportunity in CPG. Household names are emerging every year in booze, all with a common theme: "better for you" products Last I checked alcohol isn't "good for you" so what's going on here? Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@TicTacTOmar Honestly this is a total joke. Right in front of the ref. Refs losing control here…

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

Last year I co-founded Selva Ventures, a CPG-focused VC firm, as a solo GP This week I’ve been reflecting on our first year in business and wanted to share some of the lessons learned in building a small investment firm Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Seen a lot of takes lately on how DTC “doesn’t work”, “is dead”, etc I spend all day investing in and supporting emerging brands I want to clear a few things up:

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@FOS Take the money - it’s only one year and he’ll be well on his way to being an owner of Barcelona and not just playing for them in 2024

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

10 months

My life changed forever on Thursday I now understand what all my parent friends told me about their growing capacity to love I’ll be stepping back from writing for a couple of months while I get to know my daughter Catch y’all in the new year

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

CPG accounting clarified: Gross Revenue - Trade Spend = Net Revenue Net Revenue - Product COGS = Product Margin Product Margin - non-product COGS (freight/logistics) = Gross Margin Gross Margin - direct marketing = Contribution Margin Contribution Margin - OpEx = EBITDA

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

I have one super high-conviction category bet in CPG that always invites a ton of skepticism and pushback: Non-alcoholic beer, wine and spirits 3 years ago I was a skeptic but now I'm convinced Many people don’t believe me, but I think it’s going to be huge Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

I wrote a letter to the editor of the @nytimes in response to @mikiebarb 's The Daily episode on Monday covering SVB I'm sharing here, in the hopes that we see more depth and compassion going forward: I’m a big fan of the Daily — I’ve found no better way to get a 30 minute audio

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Today we’re thrilled to share that Selva Ventures has closed its second fund, raising $34 million! (thread)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

The troubles with stacking SAFEs when fundraising 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

11 months

The beauty (and well-kept secret) of CPG investing is capital efficiency The key is wholesale distribution (scaling via retail INSTEAD of DTC) You can scale past $15m in sales without additional capital (assuming you aren't in beverage and your margins are 40%+) That's why the

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

VCs with under $100m of AUM: Who are you using for fund admin and do you recommend them? We're moving away from Carta and want a solid admin partner at a fair price

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Feels like nobody on CPG twitter is talking about this One of the most successful CPG exits ever yesterday and it's pretty much crickets Kudos to L Catterton, holy moly, cool 18x on a $50m check

CPG WIRE

@cpgwire

1 year

ODDITY — the consumer tech firm behind beauty brands IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild — made its Nasdaq debut and shares surged. The firm, which priced at $35 per share or a valuation of $1.9B, rocketed to a valuation of $2.8B by midday. 🚀🚀🚀

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Health and wellness is an absolute megatrend, and we're still in the early innings Tens of billions of equity value will be created this decade in companies that don't exist yet This comes from 4 key factors (Thread)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

7 months

Excited to share that we’re up in running with the first ever Selva HQ in Los Angeles It’s a big milestone for the firm and a personal joy to be settled into a city that was home for me 10 years ago CPG / consumer wellness fam: let me know when you come through town!

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Oddity is neither a tech nor a DTC company They are a beauty company, trading at a beauty EBITDA multiple (L’Oreal 24x / Estée Lauder 30x) Having data-informed product dev does not make you tech Calling this a tech company is how we got in the DTC bubble in the first place

Philip Pages | workspace6

@PhilipPages

1 year

Oddity is a tech company that uses data and deep customer insights to launch DTC brands. And it's working.

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@TicTacTOmar This aged well

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

6. There are 2 magic numbers for emerging brands: Gross margin and repeat purchase rate If those 2 are strong you are creating unique value and solving a real problem for the consumer If those 2 are strong, you are likely building a healthy and valuable business

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@TicTacTOmar This is contract extension energy

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Back online after the best week ever finally (after 2 years of postponement) marrying my best friend @ChantalRapport

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

I get why people do it, but I’m so triggered by consumer products companies who multiply last month’s rev x12 and call it “ARR” I love your sector. I’ve devoted my career to investing in it. But any sector where 40% repeat rate is strong is not dealing in “recurring revenue”

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Consumer products investing is really just: 1. Do people truly love this product? (Repeat purchase) 2. Does the business model work? (Margins) 3. Is the team excellent? (Solving problems, attracting talent) I get in trouble when I overcomplicate it and stray from the above

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

I’m often asked what I look for as an investor in emerging CPG Many assume a high degree of subjectivity given the different category and channels, with limited data at the seed/A stage At Selva we’ve built a framework and process to drive consistency Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

DTC growth challenges in CPG are sending brands rushing to retail Yet still people aren’t talking enough about Amazon! Why I’m betting on Amazon being a massive brand-building channel in the 2020s:

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

If people are wondering why Athletic Greens is worth >$1b: ✅Owns a consumer's time of day (repeat purchase) ✅Self-funded to escape velocity (capital efficient) ✅Lightweight product sold eComm (gross margin) ✅Aspirational brand with mass appeal (high ceiling)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

State of the venture market in CPG 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

I see many emerging brands right now with those 2 numbers in a healthy place The entrepreneurs behind these companies have their heads down right now, building through the noise Soon enough their stories will be told …maybe even by the same folks hating on DTC right now

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

My bet on the next category in consumer packaged goods to produce a billion dollar brand: Sleep Here’s why 👇👇👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

With today's CACs, I wonder why more brands aren't asking loyal consumers to seed product to their friends for free One friend who runs a brand gave me ~25 SKUs to hand out to friends -- it has probably converted ~20 new paying consumers with >$100 LTV each Bet on your product

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Quote I heard recently that I'm obsessed with: "Average players like to be left alone Good players really want to be coached Great players want to be told the truth" - Nick Saban

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

CPG brand has only 4 ways to grow in retail SKUs: More products Doors: Win distribution Price: Raise price Velocity: Sell through units faster Velocity is the highest quality of these 4 - it means your product is resonating Magic velocity stat: Units / SKU / Door / Week

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@JoePompliano Basketball: turn off the clock and play to a target number with 5min left in the 4th Q Would get rid of intentional fouling Turn off all the delays in the last 2min Allow teams to come back if they play good D They’ve tested this in the All star game and it’s super exciting

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

Every big success in emerging CPG brands can pass what I call the “Dinner Party Test" Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

To emerging CPG founders: This stock market volatility has been undoubtedly scary Especially if you need to raise capital in the next 6-12 months I want to share how I’m trying to make sense of it - what to be mindful of and what to take comfort in Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

14/ The healthier shake-up of this space is only beginning. Consumers are craving it Every trend we've seen in non-alc will play out in alc (low sugar, ingredient transparency, probiotics, etc) and now is the time for small brands to take the baton Have a drink and enjoy 🥂

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@JoePompliano And because there are an absurd number of Canadians who just live in the US - especially Florida… And because most Canadians have at least one American friend… Leafs in 5

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Is your pitch deck is telling your story in a clear, concise and compelling way? Here’s my exercise of how to test that and how to fix if it’s not. 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

4/ Starting out I knew nobody else doing this, but the content about this growing field of “Solo Capitalists” has been both educational and therapeutic @nbt ’s substack (below), @Samirkaji ’s podcast (Venture Unlocked) and @oper8rio really stand out 👏👏👏

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

When you realize many consumers choose where to buy their $200-300 grocery list based on which store carries 1-3 specific products totaling $10-15 It quickly makes sense why conventional and mass retailers are carrying so many indie CPG brands

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Exciting week for Selva Ventures The firm turns four years old and we are hosting our portfolio founders for a first ever Selva Summit to meet one another in person and learn from some amazing industry speakers Pretty cool milestone, feeling grateful for the journey

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Emerging CPG brands are all being told to “get profitable” What that really means in practice: “control your destiny and be profitable at exit” But what does that P&L at exit look like? Quick 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

7 indie CPG brands that I have no investment in or affiliation with that I think are just absolutely 🔥 and want to give some love to:

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

I’ve been at this for a little under 3 years and I’m now convinced there’s no way to learn more about business, life and yourself than being an entrepreneur

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

2. DTC is still a very powerful channel to prove yourself to retailers Whole Foods, Target, Walmart, Costco, Nordstrom, etc are all looking for new brands to offer to their consumers DTC traction and data provides great proof that a brand is worth carrying

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

One major common thread in most of the big success stories in food CPG: “Permissible Indulgence” (Thread)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

I don't write much about beauty and personal care, largely because I don't know enough BUT luckily my teammate Madeline does, and I'm trying to get her to share her thoughts on the beauty industry here Would you want more emerging brand beauty takes?

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Mars buying Tru Fru is an example of a sneaky big business resonating with mass consumers, not getting much airtime with the CPG hype community, but providing the sell-through and innovation that big CPG is looking for

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Valuations are rising across emerging CPG which forces us to reconsider our frameworks Investors are naturally complaining (as we do) but what is happening here? (Thread)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Just spent the past 2 days in Bentonville, Arkansas Amazing town — home of Walmart, my first time visiting Sharing 6 learnings and reactions:

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Board members who are negative during bad times are unhelpful Board members who are negative during good times do some of the worst possible damage to an entrepreneur's energy and mental health

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

6 years

Let's talk repeat purchase -- my thoughts on a super important but sometimes confusing topic to manage your CPG business to. Why investors care so much and how I think it should be measured.

Let’s Talk Repeat Purchase

Why and How Consumer Brands Should Track Repeat Rates

blog.goodaudience.com

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

3. Many big legacy brands do not effectively solve consumer problems Most of these have survived due to distribution moats (space on shelf, real estate) These tired, legacy brands will continue to be replaced by entrepreneur-led solutions who better understand the consumer

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

1. The model of cutting out the “middlemen” and replacing distributor/retailer margin with social ads is dead CPAs on social were getting too high before iOS14, now they’re untenable Retailers now provide a very efficient way of reaching the consumer This is kind of old news

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

@JoePompliano 😂 you turned this thread from an L to a W with this gif

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Excited to announce today that the Selva Ventures team is growing with the addition of Madeline Kaplan as a Principal 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

Too many talent-led brands are hammers looking for a nail The celebrity is valuable for efficient marketing — an easier way to get consumers to try a product But that product must effectively solve a problem for consumers to reorder The celebrity isn’t the reason to exist

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

11 months

@Austen Drinkers have been subsidizing your dinner checks for years 🙂

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@gilbert Never let the truth get in the way of a good story

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Have been studying Web3 x CPG application Lots of this field is hype — a hammer looking for a nail But there are still some powerful unlocks for brands to use Web3 Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@TicTacTOmar Well put by Sheldon here

TSN

@TSN_Sports

1 year

“It's a classic example of a veteran championship team like Tampa Bay manipulating the officials and taking advantage of a situation.” Sheldon Keefe on the Stamkos/Matthews fight. Thoughts?

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

4. The right outcome for many of these young brands is $100-500m acquisition by their competitor or private equity Few categories are big enough to warrant a $1b+ exit Most traditional venture-backed DTC brands were funded to clear $1b or bust (e.g. Casper, Allbirds, etc)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Every future CPG exit will either be: 1. Media company generating repeatable compelling content Or 2. Products that are genuinely hard to make The most valuable will be both

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

We all know gross margin is paramount in CPG but it’s rarely discussed in terms of inventory risk With 50% GM you buy 2 units of inventory and selling 1 pays back the investment With 80% GM you buy 5 units and selling 1 pays back That massively de-risks your forecast precision

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

One of the most important lessons I’ve learned since founding Selva Ventures is the close relationship between fear and conviction (Thread)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

If you want an investor to fully understand what you’re building, a written memo will be more effective than a deck Rarely see this done but I bet it has high ROI in time saved doing investor Q&A

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

11 months

One year ago I start working with a psychologist So far it is the most impactful investment I’ve ever made in myself as an investor, leader and person 🧵

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

To those who say CPG innovation is saturated, it wasn’t long ago that we all thought Tropicana and Naked were Pepsi’s “healthy brands”, not just more sugar water This space will never stop evolving in parallel to our understanding of human nutrition

Bloomberg

@business

3 years

Pepsico to sell Tropicana, Naked and other juice brands to private equity firm PAI Partners for about $3.3 billion

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

@jmelaskyriazi DM me please John - this was likely my car and I’m looking for a witness

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

3 quick thoughts on the Mondelez $2.9b acquisition of Clif

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 months

Hey guys @DavidSacks @friedberg @chamath longtime fan of @theallinpod Can you please teach @Jason how to pronounce “monetize”?

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Blackstone acquires Supergoop PE firms acquiring Tier A brands is going to increase meaningfully in the 2020s Strategic M&A is not going anywhere, but it’s no longer the only endgame for these brands

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

7 months

There is a powerful and growing change in the way that consumers are talking about protein I’m calling this as one of the most powerful consumer shifts in the next decade Often I notice these trends through patterns of conversation — the same topics coming up with different

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Experienced investors often say “that category is tough” Probe and you’ll hear them describe a few that tried and failed Maybe true but that comment is somewhere between cynical and lazy It stymies creative, critical thinking and insults the truth that great things are hard

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Great visit with my friend and mentor @MikeDuda

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

7/ 2020: This year it's @highnoonsunsips . Since launching a major @barstoolsports partnership in May, High Noon is sold out everywhere. It's harder to buy High Noon today than it was to buy toilet paper in April Why? It's seltzer but vodka- not malt-based. Premium. Cleaner.

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

@JoePompliano Wasn’t the whole point of a 7th inning cut off to let people sober up before they drive home? With faster innings doesn’t that mean they should cut off in the 6th not the 8th?

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

The past year has been hard for many CPG startups At the beginning of ‘23 we looked at who was succeeding in our portfolio and asked: What do they have in common? The answer was a pattern of 5 things:

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Walmart's reported increased traffic from higher-income shoppers will only accelerate its push to be a go-to early retailer for emerging brands $WMT

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

5/ Ironically, the best way to succeed as a solo capitalist is to not be solo: build a talent ecosystem around you Investing is a team sport. I can’t make the best decisions unless I’m challenged by smart people who care about the outcome (2nd piece is key)

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

HOKA shoes out here helping 5’10” guys claim they’re 6ft tall

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Five years ago I had the biggest setback of my life At the time it shook me to the core - in hindsight it might be one of the best things that has happened to me To folks who have faced similar setbacks lately, I hope my story helps in a small way

Setbacks and Self-Belief

Five years ago was the worst birthday I’ve ever had. I got up that morning knowing that at 9am I would find out if years of hard work and…

link.medium.com

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

@web Honestly my favorite is celebrating the ones that got sneaky big without investors or press ever catching on

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Lots of polls going around about attending Expo West I’m 100% going — been way too long. I’m Fired Up!

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Most fun part of what I do is seeing these brands we’ve backed in the flesh when I walk into a store in a new town

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Reading the comments, I love it when people dunk on @LiquidDeath with no regard for: 1. The market size of water 2. The fact that brand and distribution drive ~100% of water market share Not an investor (passed on the seed and lived to regret it) but damn was it a killer pitch

Katie Roof

@Katie_Roof

2 years

Liquid Death is now valued at $700 million for its water in a beer can

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

5. The most common argument for recent DTC haters are the household names who have raised the most $ Very few of these pundits are aware of the highly efficient brands raising <$50m who will one day create major equity value for founders/investors

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

The most irrational investment decision I’ve ever made is putting my emotions into a hockey team that hasn’t won a championship since my dad was 8

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

Who are the best family offices that do direct investing in consumer products?

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

CNN reporting Erythritol is linked to heart attack & stroke This has been *the* zero cal sweetener for the past decade of challenger brands Health impact has been an open question for years, but assumed to be benign Curious how consumers react

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Less: DTC iOS 14 Rising CACs FB arbitrage ending More: Changing consumer preferences Products uniquely solving consumer problems Yes it used to be easier, but *truly* iconic brands built 10y ago didn’t just exploit low CPMs They were special. There’s still room to be special.

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Was at a concert Saturday - if you looked closely, cans of @LiquidDeath were everywhere Meant that a TON of people who might usually be drinking beer/seltzer could subtly drink water instead

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

3/ Fundraising could be its own thread, but in fund 1 narrow focus is everything Build a narrative that can get people excited and DO NOT stray from it, even though it can be tempting Anything that doesn’t fit? Use an SPV or let it go

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

"Founder friendly" as a brand for VCs proved to be a bull market phenomenon Ironically often not friendly when it mattered The future is "founder empathy" - Care about the founders as people - Invest in their well being - Negotiate with integrity - Embrace hard conversations

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

10 months

Two years ago I wrote a thread about the rise of non-alcoholic beer, wine and spirits The past 24 months have taught me lots about the magnitude and complexity of this opportunity The tailwinds and size of prize are more compelling than ever

Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

I have one super high-conviction category bet in CPG that always invites a ton of skepticism and pushback: Non-alcoholic beer, wine and spirits 3 years ago I was a skeptic but now I'm convinced Many people don’t believe me, but I think it’s going to be huge Thread 👇

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

2 years

There is no better feeling than seeing someone who you took a chance on achieve success Even better when they actively bring you on their journey Having the resources ($, insight, time, network) to take more chances on people is one of the best motivations to be successful

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

I want to believe in CPG IPOs I believe investors want to play CPG health & wellness themes in the public market Beyond Meat, Oatly and Vital Farms have not set a great example of success, largely due to valuations that were not supportable Let’s hope Chobani gets us on track

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

1 year

VP Marketing role is opening up at one of our best performing companies Really amazing opportunity to build a powerful brand in health and longevity Must have passion for health & wellness and experience in consumer (CPG not necessary) DM if you know someone great

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

3 years

Massively proud of my wife @ChantalRapport today who was just promoted to CMO of Upstart! I’m always learning from you and blown away by your ability to lead your team with vision and empathy

Dave Girouard

@davegirouard

3 years

I'm thrilled to announce the promotion of @chantalrapport to CMO of @upstart ! It's a rare consumer company that can grow by an order of magnitude while reducing CAC, because it's a rare company that has someone like Chantal leading the effort. $UPST

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Kiva Dickinson

@KivaDickinson

4 years

13/ Barriers to scale independently are lowering eCommerce is emerging: Some brands ( @drinkhaus ) can build an audience DTC without pandering to distributors; others can use platforms like @Drizly Funding is better: less vice clauses and VCs who don't believe in bev alcohol

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