Kristin Ven Bruusgaard @KBruusgaard Twitter profile

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

1/ My new piece in on Russian nuclear decision making is out in @WarOnTheRocks In it, I argue that Russian idiosyncrasies are useful to discuss potential Russian nuclear employment in Ukraine. Thread 1/7

Understanding Putin’s Nuclear Decision-Making - War on the Rocks

Editor’s note: Don’t miss our comprehensive guide to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The Ukraine invasion has instigated a soul-searching of

warontherocks.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

Professional update: very pleased to announce that as of this fall, I will be the new Director of the Norwegian Intelligence School @Forsvaret_no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

Adding my two cents on the doctrinal developments in Russia in the last 24h - for what its worth. A thread 1/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

I write in @ForeignAffairs on the potentially perilous moments of Russian nuclear protocols

How Russia Decides to Go Nuclear

Deciphering the way Moscow handles its ultimate weapon.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Excited that my new @jststs article is out! Russian nuclear strategy and conventional inferiority

Russian nuclear strategy and conventional inferiority

Contemporary debates on Russian nuclear strategy focus on making sense of Russia’s nuclear capabilities, signalling and nuclear declarations. This paper argues that understanding how nuclear capabi...

www.tandfonline.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

Just successfully defended my thesis at @DefenceResearch and am now apparently Dr. Bruusgaard!!

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

The spectacle here is the key: the act of communicating "our doctrine is changing" now has the worlds attention, with the implicit message: you should be worried. 2/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

And spoiler alert: I dont think this content will do much to shift deliberations in Western capitals. END 8/8

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Absolutely thrilled to have been awarded the @jststs 2020 Amos Perlmutter Prize for my article on Russian nuclear strategy and conventional inferiority

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

The content of Putins speech is less spectacular; a number of issues receive more detailed treatment than before, but the granularity of nuclear thresholds remain as blurred as before – as is intended 3/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 <THREAD> on why Putin would do something like raising the alert level of his nuclear forces? First, it conveys pretty directly to the West (US) the severity of the situation. Seemingly pertains to strategic forces only - certainly hope so. (1/9)

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

Ukraine features clearly rel states with support of nuclear-armed states; but again, this links to Russia reserving the right to attack non-nuclear states. We knew this: its the reason weve been debating Russian nuclear use in Ukraine for 2yrs. 6/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

4/ One uncertainty is whether Putin believes the potent Western economic, political, and military response could become existential threats. As of now, seemingly not. But the question is how desperate Putin will get amid domestic and international pressure.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

Key question is what now? Will we see a document, will it contain more than what Putin has stated? Is this a trial balloon or is this the shabang? If so; curious that changes were so little if one were to go through the motions of updating the doctrine. 7/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

Belarus as part of Russian nuclear umbrella similarly implicit in 2020 doctrine. Issue of sovereignty is new, but the interpretation of «sovereignty» and «the very existence of the state» may both be subjective 5/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

2/ This probably remains a local war in the Russian lexicon, one “with a few states pursuing limited political-military objectives”. The nuclear signaling we have seen so far is all oriented to deterring it from moving to the next level: a regional war.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

21 days

Issues that we already knew include massive air/space attack (implicit in previous incoming ballistic missile attack) and tgting non-nuclear armed states (negative security guarantees were removed from Ru mil doctrine a while ago) 4/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

3/ A regional war is one which would implicate for example NATO. In such wars, nuclear weapons use would be much more likely, as they may quickly become existential to Russia. This explains why Russia is now doing what it can to deter NATO from intervening.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

7/ Finally, useful to delineate two analytically distinct scenarios for nuclear employment: in Ukraine and nuclear escalation if this turns into a direct NATO-Russia confrontation (much more likely). This is not clearly delineated in many pieces out there.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

6/ What would they tell him? IMO they would not advice nuclear use now: it would leave Russia with few options left for further escalation. Other analysts such as @mikekofman have also hinted to Russians likely reserving capabilities for such scenarios

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

5/ In the event that he would move toward the nuclear option, he would likely be forced to consult with his Defense Minister or Chief of General Staff. This is my estimate, but @russianforces have weighed in on this too

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 months

As part of a Special Issue on Norway, Deterrence, Reassurance and Strategic Stability in Europe, I published a new article on the NATO/Russia deterrent relationship in @jststs . Eprints availble here Deterrence asymmetry and strategic stability in Europe

Deterrence asymmetry and strategic stability in Europe

Strategic stability can mitigate the security dilemma that mutual deterrence efforts produce. If two parties agree on what the most destabilising peacetime or wartime behaviour is, they are more li...

www.tandfonline.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Russian State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence - thoughts: 1/ Reiterates what was already known through military doctrines: that Russian NWs are weapons of last resort, to be used to deter or defeat existential threats Will the West listen now?

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Extremely important piece with excellent advice for policymakers from the always sharp @scharap

Western allies must respond to Putin without risking escalation

The only outcome worse than the invasion of Ukraine itself would be a hot war between Russia and Nato

www.ft.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 2/ Putin’s statement that conveys this as a response to Western statements about Russia are shocking: Putin basically says that these guys are saying terrible things about us so we must “raise the alert level”. latest in series of horrifying statements.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 3/ Stark departure from existing and officially communicated doctrine regarding nuclear employment –Westen statements, no matter how evil, could not realistically be spun as “threatening the existence of the Russian state”.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 5/ If Putin is about to lose his marbles, however, then this information, combined with concerning and unverified chatter about nuclear incidents and dirty bombs, paints an extremely concerning picture. Major caveat here relating to the ongoing info war.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 7/ But this brings us back to rationality : most of the campaign seems irrational from perspective of political objectives Russia likely to achieve. Previous Putin statements re nuclear weapons suggest he believes these are different. Now – who knows?

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

And I too am thrilled to join @UniOslo_SVfak and #OsloNuclearProject and to work with the brilliant @Malfrid_BH

Malfrid

@Malfrid_BH

5 years

I am delighted that @KBruusgaard has joined #OsloNuclearProject at @UniOslo_SVfak from our friends at @StanfordCISAC . Kristin's expertise on Russian nuclear strategy is much needed - and challenges many preconceptions.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

Phew! Survived it, thank you @StanfordCISAC for the opportunity to get a ton of incredibly useful feedback on my manuscript before I head off to @UniOslo_SVfak

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 4/ Nuclear deterrence theory and practice closely related to rationality: If Putin remains rational, then this conveys stay out from a next and more ugly conventional phase in Ukraine – as many have pointed out.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

my reaction: Interesting overview of E2D debate. But doesn't focus on key US misunderstanding: that Russia would start war b/c of confidence in own ability to control escalation. 1/

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

just published a piece on Why U.S. Tactical Nukes Are a Bad Idea.

Here's Why U.S. Tactical Nukes Are a Bad Idea.

They likely won't change Moscow's calculations during a crisis.

nationalinterest.org

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 8/ I wonder about reports of elite mumblings and resort to old skool Kremlinology when seeing the face of Shoigu in recent displays. I personally don’t think the Russian military elite will cheer on the idea of limited nuclear use in or about Ukraine.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 9/ But who will break the news to Putin that this may in fact not work – and be as utterly counterproductive as his other efforts at producing the outcome he seeks?

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

DC ppl: join me for debate this Friday @CSISRussia on Russian Nuclear Strategy after the Cold War

Russian Nuclear Strategy after the Cold War

Please watch as we had a discussion of the external and internal drivers of change in post-Cold War Russian nuclear strategy.

www.csis.org

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

@james_acton32 6/ Is this E2D? Russian doctrine thus far has been about nuclear use in face of existential conventional military threats against Russian homeland. If this remains a guiding principle, then unlikely we will see nuclear employment in or near Ukraine.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

I've written on whether we will trade known ills for unknown ones with a nuclear ban treaty in

Policy Roundtable: The Future of Trans-Atlantic Nuclear Deterrence - Texas National Security Review

This January, Perry World House hosted a two-day workshop titled “Transatlantic Disruption: Challenges and Opportunities.” The essays in this roundtable emerged from a panel on the future of trans-...

tnsr.org

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

Look forward to new challenges and opportunities for collaborations, including with my great colleagues @NuclearOslo

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

#OsloNuclearProject is very excited about the inaugural Oslo Nuclear Forum on 9 September with @Gottemoeller NATO Nuclear Policy in a Post-INF World

NATO Nuclear Policy in a Post-INF World

with NATO Deputy Secretary General Rose Gottemoeller

www.sv.uio.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Takk for det - et viktig og spennede oppdrag som jeg gleder meg til å ta fatt på!

Malfrid

@Malfrid_BH

3 years

Kollega @KBruusgaard er oppnevnt i Statsråd i dag som medlem av den nye Forsvarskommisjonen. Vi i @NuclearOslo gratulerer med det viktige oppdraget! @UniOslo_SVfak

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

I write in @BulletinAtomic today on why Russia still values #NewStart

Russia killed arms control. Why does it want to keep New START?

Although there is mounting evidence that Russia does not value arms control, there are three major reasons why it’s sincere about extending the final remaining nuclear treaty with the United States.

thebulletin.org

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Very excited about presenting my work this evening CET/midday EST at @MIT_SSP

MIT SSP

@MIT_SSP

4 years

What factors have impacted Russia’s #nuclear strategy since the Cold War? What role does #military autonomy play in #Russia ’s civil-military relations? Find out at our 3/31 Weds. Seminar w/ @KBruusgaard ! Info: . #AcademicTwitter #weapons #ForeignPolicy

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Fun times and stimulating discussion @NATO_DefCollege #nuclear #strategist workshop, excited about two more days of this!

Doreen Horschig

@doreen__h

4 years

Great presentations at @NATO 's #Virtual Early-Career #Nuclear #Strategists Workshop (ECNSW) by @areddie89 , @KBruusgaard & @LorenzoTerm on nuclear deterrence & strategy! @NDC_Research

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Happening this Wednesday 1pm CET! Joint @nuclearoslo seminar with @FHS_Oslo and @fak_dk sign up via link (in link) Blurred lines between conventional and nuclear weapons: Implications for deterrence and stability

Blurred lines between conventional and nuclear weapons: Implications for deterrence and stability

Technological shifts are eroding the line between nuclear and conventional weapons. We discuss the implications for strategic stability, and examine Russia’s and South Korea’s deterrence strategies.

www.sv.uio.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Reupping this: ONF21 happening this Friday 14.15CET! Come talk Russian nukes and European security with @AnyaFink @OlyaOliker live if you're in Oslo, via zoom if not. Signup here:

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Super excited about this years first @NuclearOslo Roundtable on Nuclear and Conventional Deterrence, 13 January 2.30-4.00PM CET featuring @CorentinBr @ALanoszka @andrewfutter and yours truly Sign up via link

ONP Roundtable: The future of nuclear and conventional deterrence in Europe

In this Oslo Nuclear Project Roundtable, we discuss whether modern conventional military capabilities can supplant nuclear weapons for deterrent and warfighting purposes, and the future relationship...

www.sv.uio.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

Looking forward to this 4 May @NuclearOslo conversation in Oslo on Chinese, Russian, US approaches to strategic stability with @Fiona_Cunning @CameronJJJ @HenrikHiim

OsloNuclearProject

@NuclearOslo

2 years

Next week, on May 4th, we are hosting a seminar together with @IFS_Oslo to discuss Chinese, Russian and US approaches to great power competition and strategic stability. More information about the seminar can be found here:

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Very excited about presenting my @NuclearOslo work to @ManagingtheAtom

Managing the Atom

@ManagingtheAtom

4 years

Next Wednesday at 9:30 am EDT: "Explaining Change in Russian Nuclear Strategy After the Cold War" with @KBruusgaard

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

My take on Helsinki and Putins wish list

Putin’s wish list does not include destroying Trump

The much-anticipated summit in Helsinki is over and US media and politicians are fuming over Trump’s admiration of the persuasive skills of President

thebulletin.org

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Jeg skriver I Dagsavisen I dag om russiske atomvåpen og vanskelige valg I norsk sikkerhetspolitikk: disse må være en del av debatten om Forbudstraktaten

Ubehagelige dilemmaer

Debatten om norsk atompolitikk er et spørsmål om norsk sikkerhet i møtet med eksistensielle trusler.

www.dagsavisen.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

I had the pleasure of conversing with @HannaNotte and @sbidgood about nuclear risk and conventional forces in their new video/podcast

Hanna Notte

@HannaNotte

2 years

Concerned about #nuclear escalation? Releasing Episode 3 of "Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower" w/co-host @sbidgood , feat. @KBruusgaard . We discuss #RussiaUkraineWar / Russian nuclear strategy / modernization of Russian conventional forces @JamesMartinCNS

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

Jeg debuterte som ny fast spaltist @DN_no og snakker på @dagsnytt18 i dag om veien videre i Ukraina

Kronikk: Vinn eller forsvinn i Ukraina? (+)

Russland vil trolig posisjonere seg for en langvarig konfrontasjon med Nato.

www.dn.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Come work with us @NuclearOslo in Norway's leading polisci department @UniOslo_SVfak

Malfrid

@Malfrid_BH

3 years

🚀🚀DEADLINE IN 10 DAYS 🚀🚀 Two 4-year postdoctoral fellowships focusing on strategic stability and arms control & one predoctoral fellowship focusing on new challenges for nonproliferation with @NuclearOslo ☢️☢️☢️☢️☢️☢️☢️☢️☢️☢️

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

This Wednesday @NuclearOslo is hosting an in-person roundtable on Great Power Rivalry and strategic stability in downtown Oslo, sign up via link below

ONP/IFS Joint Seminar: Great power rivalry and strategic stability: Chinese, Russian and US...

This joint Oslo Nuclear Project/Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies (IFS) panel discussion will bring together four leading experts to discuss Chinese, Russian and US approaches to great power...

www.sv.uio.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

sure, Russia has range of ltd nuclear options and will consider ltd strikes. But are they confident in the result this would produce? I think no, which is reason they continue to insist they would only do so when existence of state under threat 2/2

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Looking forward to taking part in this discussion today at 7pm CET

Carnegie Nuclear Policy

@carnegienpp

4 years

TODAY AT 1PM EST: @james_acton32 @KBruusgaard and @AnitaFriedt discuss a new report on five proposals to make meaningful arms control progress between the U.S., Russia, and China. Send in questions via Youtube live chat or by tweeting @carnegienpp !

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

This Wednesday 1 Dec at 2.30 CET we are thrilled to host @eriklg in an Online @NuclearOslo Seminar on Crisis Signaling in the age of Twitter, with comments by @Mauro_Gilli . Signup here:

Cheap Tweets? Crisis Signaling in the Age of Twitter

In this online seminar, we will discuss Erik Lin-Greenbergs paper

www.sv.uio.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

Very proud of my colleague, the brilliant @Malfrid_BH - well deserved!

Malfrid

@Malfrid_BH

5 years

Personal news: I am delighted to announce that @fr_jensenius and I have been promoted to Full Professor of Political Science at @UniOslo_SVfak !

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

I am very excited to be chairing the panel on Intelligence at the EISS Annual Conference in Barcelona in June. CfP closes 27 Jan, see below for details on the conference and how to submit an abstract 👇👇

European Initiative for Security Studies

@EISSnetwork

2 years

🚨REMINDER🚨 📌6th edition of EISS Annual Conference 🗓📍This year, the conference will take place at @IBEI in Barcelona on 29-30 June 2023 📢 Send us your panel and paper proposals before 27 January through the Indico platform! ➡️ 1/2 🔽

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

A unique Russian deterrence concept that seamlessly integrates nuclear and non-nuclear assets demonstrate shortcomings of mirror imaging Western concepts when deciphering Russian strategy

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

In it, I demonstrate how perceptions of the conventional balance of forces has produced change in Russian nuclear strategy over time

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Looking forward to the conversation in this exciting @UNIDIR conference

United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research

@UNIDIR

3 years

@andrewfutter @LyuJinghua @shakirov2036 @raji143 @SFU @VSamson_DC On 26 May, the second day of our conference, we’ll dive into the blurring line between advanced conventional and nuclear capabilities. @KBruusgaard , @rebeccahersman , and @KomissarWhipla will consider: what are the potential consequences of different types of ambiguities? [5/]

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

7 years

My latest take on The Myth of Russia’s Lowered Nuclear Threshold via @warontherocks

The Myth of Russia’s Lowered Nuclear Threshold - War on the Rocks

As Russia’s Zapad 2017 strategic exercise finishes, Russia-watchers and nuclear hawks will be looking for evidence of Russia’s alleged “lowered nuclear

warontherocks.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

This is happening online tomorrow @NuclearOslo . Looking forward to the discussion! sign up below

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Highly recommend this sobering analysis: @CameronJJJ @NuclearOslo spells out the challenges beyond New START extension

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Interessert I atomvåpen og internasjonal politikk? Hør på yours truly @nuclearoslo I Debatt i P2 om atomvåpen i regi av @nupinytt

15. januar 2021 - NRK Radio

Atomvåpen er tilbake på dagsorden, og situasjonen i verden er verre enn mange er klar over. Forholdene mellom atommaktene er spent, avtaler om nedrustning faller, og ny teknologi senker kanskje...

radio.nrk.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Great new piece by my @NuclearOslo colleague @CameronJJJ with useful reminders about gauging adversary intentions

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

Yours truly (+ others..). on Russian discussion on clarifying nuclear doctrine Эксперты в США назвали цели разработки новой ядерной доктрины России:

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Important new article on the drivers of Russia s strategic weapons development by the excellent @JamesMartinCNS crew

Russia’s novel weapons systems: military innovation in the post-Soviet period

This article identifies the principal drivers of Russian military innovation involving five novel nuclear, conventional, or dual-capable delivery systems—Avangard, Burevestnik, Poseidon, Kinzhal, a...

www.tandfonline.com

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

7/ To conclude: most of this not new to geeks who follow Russian debates and declaratory strategy; but the publication and level of detail is a first - in history of Russia and USSR, far as I know. also: those who believe declaratory strategy has no value will still shrug

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Jeg har anmeldt @halvorkippe og S Høibråtens meget gode rapport om Russiske kjernefysiske styrker

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Jeg skriver om atomparaplyens relevans for norsk sikkerhet i @aft_meninger

Atomparaplyen er nødvendig for troverdig sikkerhet

Atomparaplyen har gjort det mulig å forsvare deler av alliansen som ellers ikke kan forsvares.

www.aftenposten.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Indeed, Russia has made Basic Principles of Nuclear Deterrence Policy public! - amid much Western debate on the content of this document

Dmitry Stefanovich

@KomissarWhipla

4 years

To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time the Basic Principles of State Policy in the field of Nuclear Deterrence are made public in Russia. Stay tuned for a thread!

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

I argue that Russia is not a unique actor perceiving nuclear weapons as uniquely suited for pursuing revisionist ambitions

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

Textbook playbook

Hans Kristensen

@nukestrat

6 years

Extensive GPS signal disruption in northern Finland during NATO exercise #TridentJuncture2018 If your offensive military capabilities rely on GPS, guess what the adversary will try to do?

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

I VG i dag snakker @TorBukkvoll og jeg om kretsen rundt Putin

(+) Mysteriet rundt Putins innerste krets

Vladimir Putins indre maktsirkel har endret seg drastisk de siste årene. Slik bidrar hans krigshissende hauker til invasjonen av Ukraina – situasjonen som sjokkerer en hel verden.

www.vg.no

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Rather, Russian nuclear weapons have compensated for conventional shortcomings, like many other nuclear powers

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

The Finns are on the ball, unsurprisingly

C Salonius-Pasternak

@charlyjsp

3 years

Finland's Defence Forces clearly signals 'Game On'... ...I've been asked almost daily whether Finnish military has done anything recently to raise readiness. My answer has always been a Kimi-like: "yes" Now its partially visible. Thread follows.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

@KomissarWhipla It is the first time and very interesting, including the earlier reports that they were considering publishing it to reduce confusion

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Unlike others, Russia has in the past decades sought to escape a too strong reliance on nuclear by improving conventional tools

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

7/ To conclude: most of this not new to geeks who follow Russian debates and declaratory strategy; but the publication and level of detail is a first - in history of Russia and USSR, far as I know. also: those who believe declaratory strategy has no value will still shrug

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

2/ It spells out what Russia seeks to deter, including the concentration or deployment of nuclear capable or conventional forces on its periphery: short and medium range ballistic and cruise missiles, missile defence, early warning, UAVs, space assets, you name it

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

Jeg skriver om Russland som regional utfordrer sammen med en rekke smartinger fra @IFS_Oslo

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

@nukestrat No, no delineation of incoming nuclear or conventional attack. BUT critical that he emphasises no preventive strikes

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

Read this excellent piece on the world Putin wants by two leading ladies of Russia watching

Angela Stent

@AngelaStent

2 years

Fiona Hill and I discuss what Putin wants as he propels Russia back into the past @ForeignAffairs

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Noen tanker om faren for bruk av atomvåpen; via @Atlantkomite @NuclearOslo

Den norske Atlanterhavskomité

@Atlantkomite

3 years

Til tross for det enorme ødeleggelsespotensialet fortsetter stater å utvikle atomvåpen. Hvor stor er faren knyttet til at stater tar i bruk sine atomvåpenarsenaler i dag? Vi har spurt eksperter om faren for bruk av atomvåpen øker i takt med opprustningen.

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

This 👇 an absolute privilege to be a part of this conference cc @mfritzbartel

Sergey Radchenko

@DrRadchenko

5 years

Attending a fantastic conference at @Yale , packed full of bright minds, including Arne Westad, John Ikenberry, @e_sarotte , Bob Jervis, @JimGoldgeier , @shifrinson , Nuno Monteiro, @SevaUT , @crmiller1 , Simon Miles, Paul Kennedy, and many others. An intense discussion!

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

Good read by @DrUlrichKuehn on some of the many inadvertent pathways to NATO-Russia confrontation

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

4/ some novel elements that highlight evolution of Russian deterrence thinking: key principles are adaptiveness, credibility ("readiness and decisiveness of RF to use NWs") and unpredictability in terms of scale, time, place, and the means used

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

5 years

Gøy å være med i interessant debatt i regi av @IFS_Oslo om fremtidig forsvarskonsept!

IFS

@IFS_Oslo

5 years

Postdoktor @KBruusgaard ved @NuclearOslo @UniOslo ser i dagens seminar "Hvordan skal vi forsvare Norge" på Russland som regional utfordrer i arbeidet med ny langtidsplan for forsvaret. @FHS_Oslo @Litteraturhuset

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Jeg har skrevet #ukensanalyse om den nye russiske kjernevåpenstrategien for @Atlantkomite @NuclearOslo

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

3/ Also spells out that nuclear weapons may be used to contain escalation of conflict and end it on terms acceptable to Russia. Ie spells out a deterrent and warfighting role, interesting delineation as pointed out by @OlyaOliker

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

6 years

@OlyaOliker hits the sweet spot on Russian nuclear strategy in

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

2 years

Excellent thread from @russianforces

Pavel Podvig

@russianforces

2 years

It's understandable that a few recent developments again made people worry again about nuclear use. I don't have a crystal ball, but there are a few things to consider. And they seem to suggest that we are still at least a few steps away from that point. 1/11

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

3 years

This is a great read on Putins decisionmaking bubble

Seva

@SevaUT

3 years

Adam Casey and I examine how Putin’s opaque and tight-knit inner circle shapes his foreign policy decision making. [ungated] @adam_e_casey

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

If you want to receive @nuclearoslo news and events, sign up here

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

6/ Spells out some conditions for RF nuclear use, to include reliable warning of incoming ballistic missile attack, nuclear or mass conventional strike against RF territory, attacks on critical infrastructure that prevents secure nuclear retaliation

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

5/ the latter is interesting also in terms of make sense of the large range of Russian dual-capable system

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Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

@KBruusgaard

4 years

Looking forward to this!

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