Salomon Brothers 90-98
Bond Portfolio Analysis
Government Desk - Long Bond Trader
Derivatives - Short-Dated Options Trading (Head)
Caxton Assoc Hedge Fund
So, yeah I spent 20+ years on Wall Street but never saw anything like this market you kids have here. I just threw 48K into a sub-account last night and took a shot at two chains hosted by two gents I find to be incredibly intelligent and this? Is it really this easy?
Cathie Wood states that the timeline projections originally forecasted by their
#bitcoin
models must adjust, moving forward in time due to ETF approval, not originally foresen as a fait acommpli. Prices, she suggested, could now be assumed to double at any point on the
@efebitcoin
Don't be so sure of yourself, punk a$$ b!tch ...
Examine market depth and trail your stops wisely. That is the lesson I have given myself. MUYOL == Make Up Your Own Lessons
$MSTR -- I make the following post, not as advice, but as an iron-clad statement of conditional probability equal to 100%. (OK, Ryan, 99.999%, are you happy?)
This is the pattern everyone should burn in their memory.
Me and brother
@trader1sz
done very well on this over the years as most look at it as dead asset after full retrace.
Inshallah.
If you buy ETF shares fresh from the issuer, you must wait 30 days before they can be placed in a margin account. Day one of the advent of Spot
#Bitcoin
ETFs arrived and the only fund with actual coins was GBTC. The thing about ETFs is that they invite short sellers to come out
1st time chiming in on this: It's possible that we relative-value guys have a hard time pulling the trigger on things we find "overvalued" ... they were just books on the internet, weren't they?
Might it be the case that $MSTR is to
#Bitcoin
what $AMZN was to the internet? 🤷♂️
Amazon went public in May 1997 at a spit adjusted price of 9 cents. 14 Years later, it was trading at $11. Up 120x. It seemed "expensive" and maybe even "overvalued". Over the next 14 years it went up to $178. Up another 16x.
Bitcoin also started trading in 2010 for 10 cents. 14
@BritishHodl
I have always liked that valuation cuz the code allows for the smallest unit of divisibility to be one 100 millionth of a BTC & the USD's smallest unit is one Cent. On the day BTC hits $1mm per coin, those two numbers shall meet as 1 Sat = 1 Cent. Writing, meet the wall!
@dotkrueger
Secret Blackrock research finds that the 60-40 equity-bond portfolio should start with 85%
#Bitcoin
and allocate the remaining 15% to the 60-40 equity-bond mix. (Not for public distribution)
@Snowden
#Bitcoin
is going to replace sliced bread as the universal comparison for everything in history of mankind. Get it out of your system. Tell ppl that ____ is the best thing since sliced bread now. Soon, the world will be saying that sliced bread was the best thing until
#Bitcoin
@BritishHodl
Let us celebrate the Saylor man's moves with a toast. I thought that the new ETFs would eclipse him ... but he got ahead of the game and is letting the concomitant rally in BTC slingshot MicroStrategy around the planet on a course for the moon. Hat's off to you
@saylor
!
@FullTimeBitcoin
@FP21M
@Z06Z07
BINGO ... plus they get their coins all in one chunk contemporaneous with their daily demand. Mainly this is a price suppression technique. Now that I have finally said it aloud, let's see if anyone proves otherwise.
@EricBalchunas
??
Recall the concept called "operational shorting"? If all of this has been, as I continue to suggest, a steady shorting of GBTC shares to buy IBIT (& other New 9) ETFs designed to artificially extract coins from one and move them to another, then a high fee at GBTC would serve to
@BenWerkman
So here's the thing that is really unique about
#Bitcoin
(hello!) .... $BTC is not a registered security. That means that any corporation or person or government could be quietly awaiting the transfer of a large block of Bitcoin which is being professionally acquired on-chain.
@BTC_for_Freedom
Where do you see this sale?
You keep saying "you can't make this stuff up" but it seems to me that you are quite literally making this stuff up.
@dotkrueger
@dotkrueger
I dropped $100K of premium for these puppies exactly three weeks ago. This is my fourth swing for the fences and I've been lucky enough to 10x each $100k bet. May the Force be with you sir YODL! This one is looking like 15x with a few days to gooooooooo $MSTR
I believe that ETF Authorized Participants (APs) have taken over the role of market makers, supplanting the entity known as "The Hand" or any other entities that previously managed the Bitcoin book. As an ex-Government Bond Market Maker, I anticipate the emergence of new
Coming from Wall Street, I believe it is my duty to express caution regarding the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. I recognize that many view this plan as beneficial for
#Bitcoin
, as it implies purchasing (or reducing the sale of confiscated)
#Bitcoin
. However, I would strongly
@dotkrueger
so funny you said that --- this was my first purcase. Bought four BTC over the period of a week and never looked at it again until my ex took half. So I took my 2btc and sold them in January 23 to buy GBTC at 45% discount ... so the ETFs basically gave me back my other two btc
This coinbase crash feels eeriy like disabling the "BUY" button on Robinhood. $COIN are you in the tank with them or are you just inept?
#Bitcoin
@dotkrueger
@PunterJeff
I never called it publicly but, I must admit, I thought we might get the God candle on Easter Sunday. Seemed appropriate. Anyway, back to the chocolate rabbit hole.
#Bitcoin
@dotkrueger
@intangiblecoins
Fred, its a market making thing.
#Bitcoin
is a market maker's dream because there are all these people who love it but just talk about it and can't really buy any more than they already have. So what's a market maker to do but mark it down in advance of the supply?
@PennybagsCX
I think we might have identified the culprit. The FTX bankruptcy trustee would have been smart to await ETF approval so that they had a source of liquidity. Lying in the weeds would now be BlackRock and perhaps the other new entrants, fully aware that there would be a steady
May I remind you that just last Friday morn, MSTR traded $1,999.99 in the pre-open and then that report from Kerrington Capital hit the airwaves shortly after. Act of desperation? Now, MSTR is $300 points off that price just six days later and the only news has been that they
This = true. But for those few willing to hold the hot potato for a bit, $MSTR can be traded to gather USD faster than $BTC in an uptrade. Use calls to cash out weekly or monthly, turn USD profits into more
#Bitcoin
and add to the the self-custody wallet.
@saylor
is helping us.
@Futur3_Th1nk3r
@saylor
From a traditional investment standpoint, $MSTR is the hands-down winner, but there’s simply no way to compare MicroStrategy stock with self-custodied
#Bitcoin
. MSTR can be easily seized by the powers that be, whereas someone with self-custodied Bitcoin has plausible deniability.
For what it is worth, I think that Coinbase is being attacked from the outside. I believe it is not an accident, but rather a purposeful attack using a technique of putting bids and offers in and out so quickly that it freezes up their system. It is malicious, but not
Dropping below 60K as Sunday approaches suggests that the Friday and Saturday night bidding has concluded, and we should brace for a NYSE fade. This is likely to initiate a weekly downtrend towards the 49K support level.
It's anticipated that the market will breach the 49K mark
Gosh Fred, did I get you THAT bullish on $MSTR this morning? We OGs gotta leave some grub for the others to snack on. I know you didn't want to miss the "Amazon of monetary policy", biggest trade of our lives, but 20% in one day is kinda pouring it on heavy.
This GBTC thing is just noise and it’s close to being over.
We have no idea of how much GBTC selling is just movement into actual BTC. The Gemini stuff is supposed to be in kind.
It’s messing up the accounting and spooking some people out. Meanwhile we are just beginning.
Monday's low of 54.5K appeared robust, and I am now targeting a range between 54.5K and 64.5K. I have a healthy stake in the game tonight, but I may need to reduce it if we don't surpass 58K, as high leverage can be risky during nighttime trading (or dawn, daytime, or dusk.)
Somebody got hit on a boatload of GBTC today, which will lead to a heavy market for BTC .... and what does a dealer who gets hit on GBTC do to hedge? He sells MSTR, figuring that there's going to be a large sell off in BTC Monday or Tuesday (✔️) and that MSTR will underperform
@BitPaine
@saylor
I have to say his energy and persistence and willingness to tolerate so many different kinds of people and settings is quite remarkable. I don't think he would put up with me LOL but he can overcome most any challenge, interpersonal or otherwise it seems.
Full disclosure: I sold some of the bitcoin I bought around 60K to buy some MichaelStrategy and Marathon ... I don't recommend this to anyone but I did encourage the purchase at 60K, so I feel it only proper to mention why I sold some
#Bitcoin
.
The only thing that would
I will be looking for post-NYSE-close strength, carrying through Saturday as
@Saylor
buys more and options hedgers have no place else to go but
#Bitcoin
.
Sunday the APs will probably wake up earlier than their usual 6pm alarm and they will be buying especially if the market is
MicroStrategy has acquired 7,420 BTC for ~$458.2 million at ~$61,750 per
#bitcoin
and has achieved BTC Yield of 5.1% QTD and 17.8% YTD. As of 9/19/2024, we hodl 252,220 $BTC acquired for ~$9.9 billion at ~$39,266 per bitcoin. $MSTR
I don't care what anyone says .... I see signs that we are running low on coins throughout the system. There will be one more reprieve on Monday but the shorts better cover then!!
@BritishHodl
Works both ways though unless we are straight up every day. Any downturn and they are suddenly long and getting longer and that's why MSTR is such a volatile beast
🔫🔫🔫
I find that many of my fellow
#Bitcoin
ers actually advocate debasement of the dollar at this point because it pumps their bags. Many support cutting taxes and cutting rates, both of which lead to more borrowing and higher inflation over the long term.
Just keeping it 💯
Greetings:
Early this morning, we designated a horizontal line at 58.5K as "Heaven's Door." You might remember the surge we observed some time ago when we established this boundary following several attempts to shatter the ice that was holding us down. Dice may not have memory,
I love MichaelStrategy too by the way.
It's below 1170, where I used to live.
I could buy it cheaper a piggie might say.
But I'm buying here, two sh!ts don't I give.
I think the Monday Low of 54.5K will hold for at least this month and we will move up to 65K, perhaps in turtle fashion, but we will move that direction.
#Bitcoin
@thomas_fahrer
You are right, because there is no such thing as zero in crypto. (Luna still trades?) In ClassFi, we have bankruptcy; so they actually go to ZERO, unlike radioactive decay which is asymptotic. The USD will go to zero one day, just like the confederate dollar. Thomas, u do
Okay this is it. Spec Long is back on, riding the rocket up to 88K and then I will step out and away from the platform as the doors close ... The is the X Train, making no local stops, on a direct run to the Twilight Zone.
#Bitcoin
be getting ziggy
Considering that Stock prices are forward looking, $MSTR could reasonably trade at 138k/63k (63k being the current price for $BTC) times your 2.36 multiple of spot
#Bitcoin
. That's 5.17x ... let's call if 5x ... that's close enough for government work. Almost close enough for
Is the current rally merely a deceased feline rebound or does it have the momentum to restore us to the previous trading range? We stand at a pivotal juncture.
One should never say never, but I do see that a weekly and monthly close above $63K would shift my broad (21K) target range up to $63K - $84K.
(Currently, Market Makers have indicated a range of $49K-$70K, which remains valid until confirmed.)
Just so you know, this isn't
Not saying he will do it today, but if the mkt maker bottoms us out at $60,000.00 precisely, that person is to be thanked and appreciated. Distribution is a process of clearing the order book, matching buyer and seller even if it means losing money in that range. It's a true
So here is something they don't teach in B-School which I learned during a really weak bond auction many years ago. It was the first time that I had used the pit for directional liquidity. Prior to that, I did basis trades and hedging ... on this day, however, we sold so hard
@Giovann35084111
@LawrenceLepard
i agree with "selling a bit"...the danger is using leverage with these things.
you don't want to interpret it as "can't go below 1 standard deviation". Anything is possible, even if it hasn't so far
@WOLF_Financial
Anyway, I will boil it down to this ... Most people lose money because they don't follow the carpenter's first rule (Measure Twice and Cut Once) and then they Cost Trade, which is what makes the TA world go 'round.
I noticed discussions questioning the divergence between $MSTR (declining) and $BTC (rising) yesterday. It's possible that the purchaser of the convertible offering was exerting pressure on the stock to lower the strike price for the bond. This seems like a strategic move from an
@ryQuant
One more, Ryan my friend?
Notice that $1,240 --> $3,690 would lend itself so beautifully to a Three for One Stock Split?
Said split would eventually bring the stock right back around to $1,230 yet leave us each with three times as many shares!!! Center-Field, flag pole
So, yeah I spent 20+ years on Wall Street but never saw anything like this market you kids have here. Is it really this easy? Call me an old Trad Fi trader, but this is like shooting fish in a barrel, with a shotgun.
So, yeah I spent 20+ years on Wall Street but never saw anything like this market you kids have here. I just threw 48K into a sub-account last night and took a shot at two chains hosted by two gents I find to be incredibly intelligent and this? Is it really this easy?
@CaitlinLong_
Wow, it seemed wrong to me that a bank would agree to settle the loan with Michael Saylor for cents on the dollar when his company had the means to satisfy the debt. The shareholders of that bank got royally screwed and he smiled all the way to the ledger.
If you can be trusted to follow my lead
I have 20MM SATs if that's what you need
It's easier to start with a friend that I trust
But a coinbase account is simply a must
Friends, BitCoiners, Countrymen lend me your ears
It's time to start trusting and easing our fears
Who's game?
Good Evening Tanner, allow me to see your 2.36 and raise you. Assuming the continued truism that four years hence
#Bitcoin
prices are always at least 2x their current level, and benchmarking the prev ATH of 69,000 ... One gets a future prediction of $138,000 as of Nov 10, 2025.
$MSTR
Current premium to NAV is 1.680. The asymmetric bet is that it is more likely to increase from here than to fall from here (towards 1x NAV, which is WORST CASE).
(1/2)