Forgive me, but after a morning of calls, this seems warranted. To those tempted to try to persuade anyone connected to the Iowa Poll to release another poll, please know: 1) The first rule of the Iowa Poll schedule is we do not talk about the Iowa Poll schedule, and
I know everyone knows this but
@jaselzer
&
@Selzer_Co_MY
are the best. Pollsters, yes, but good people also. I can only imagine their internal conversations when their last poll results were so divergent from all other polling. They were right, of course, and not just in IA...
In case you were wondering, in the June Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll, we had exactly one respondent for whom Hickenlooper was the first choice. For that one person, Pete Buttigieg was the second choice.
Fun fact of the day.
Someone I likely do not know in my feed posted a picture of the completed Mini puzzle today. I tried not to look at it, as I am on a team that competes on the puzzle daily. I had to report it and will get 25% added to my time. People! Think before you post.😀
I wish there were a rule that when a news outlet announces a vote has been taken, they would report the numbers. "House votes to repeal 2002 Iraq war powers." Not that hard to add the numbers. Right there between "votes" and "to."
From Grinnell College National Poll:
As you think about the next 12 months, do you expect the overall strength of the U.S. economy to be better or worse as compared to the way you see it now?
# GrinnellPoll
.
@JoeBiden
's win was much closer than polls predicted, but not every pollster emerged from Election Day with a black eye. Iowa's
@jaselzer
was right on the money.
@WSJ
talks with Iowa's queen of polling outliers about how she got it right.
Recalling the 1984 fire that destroyed something like half the existing medieval glass known in the world. York Minster has been rebuilt, never the same.
Earlier this week, I gave an hour-long interview to Preet Bharara. He asks unusual questions, and so it was a pleasure to spend the time. The podcast launched this morning. It's long, just fair warning.
Let's look at the historical data. In our polling ahead of the 2016 caucuses, 19% in August of 2015 and 25% in October of 2015 said it would be their first caucus. As campaigns do their work, with time, they recruit more and more first-time caucusgoers.
@jaselzer
@djjohnso
Only expecting 19% of caucus attendees to be first timers? CNN entrance polls showed 44% were first timers in '16 and youth vote turnout was up in '18.
Dear Twitter. You've created technology to link several tweets together. Great. Not great is posting the last tweet of the series first. While the tweets may land as an uninterrupted series, better would be to list the tweets so a reader can scroll down and read them in order.
Highlights from Grinnell College National Poll:
Confidence 2022 general election votes will be counted as voters intended: 53% very/somewhat confident, 44% not too/not at all confident
As we wait for the
#DemDebate
to begin, I spoke with
@jaselzer
, the polling queen of Iowa (“I prefer goddess,” she joked.)
She warned about the unpredictability of caucuses. “I would not jump to declare we know how this is going to turn out”
More in Wake Up To Politics tomorrow
It's extremely helpful that
@jaselzer
polls have been asking
#Iowa
caucus-goers who they are actively considering as well as for 1st and 2nd choice.
#iacaucus
Taping
@IowaPress
now with
@jaselzer
@DavidYepsen
,
Selzer says: “In September, I said if I was Joni Ernst I would attach myself to
@ChuckGrassley
in this state.”
Selzer openly wonders if Democrats peaked too early in Iowa with absentees and R energy was stronger on home stretch
Just to put it out there, calling our shop to tell us to "release the polls" is an odd strategy. It presumes a) we forgot we had polls we had on hand and just needed to be reminded to release them, or
Let the speculation begin!
The Iowa Poll is back with its first 2024 question.
The Iowa Poll, the 'gold standard' of political surveys, is back with new tracking on Gov. Kim Reynolds, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and the economy.
Just started watching the new Ken Burns-produced documentary, College behind Bars. I’m only 14 minutes in, and I already highly recommend this. If you decide to watch it, and you get to the 14 minute mark, you’ll know why I decided to tweet this.
For the people calling/email the
@DMRegister
about polls:
The first rule of planning the Iowa Poll is we don't talk about the Iowa Poll.
The second rule is: Read the first rule.
Guess what the third rule is?
And snaps to
@RachelSB
who made this face more times than I can count in the last week as we planned a poll release and coverage of yet another super chaotic week in Iowa politics. She’s a queen.
If you've never listened to the Christmas Carol read by the very best, tune in to Iowa Public Radio.
Read by Doug Brown, from 9 a.m. to noon on IPR's AM News and FM News/Studio One stations and again from 9 p.m. to midnight on IPR News stations.
Sad news. I was fortunate he succumbed to my campaign to meet him many years ago. I had worked on a research project to test if the little local NY talk show had legs for syndication. Yes. We spent 45 minutes in his office chatting happily away. I'm an unabashed fan.
It would be perfectly okay to fast forward past my bit to listen to ISU economist Dave Swenson and Mayor Quentin Hart of Waterloo for fresh insight into the Iowa economy, and into the feel of politics in the not-so-white parts of Iowa.
The view from Iowa:
@jaselzer
, whose poll is considered the “gold standard,” walks us through her latest data set and what to make of this incredibly close race.
Listen to the latest Politics with Amy Walter:
Cokie Roberts's was among the first voices of women journalists to penetrate my world. For so many to gather at one place--NPR--seemed astonishing. Cokie Roberts, Nina Totenberg, Susan Stanberg, Linda Wertheimer. Talk about a dynasty.
The world will be a lesser place without my darling friend, Cokie Roberts, who died early this morning. I said good-bye last night. Told her I'd see her on the other side some day, where I know she will still be a star.
Because we ask second choices in our polling (and our pollsters
@jaselzer
and
@Selzer_Co_MY
are AMAZING), here's how our poll would look if Booker's supporters were reallocated:
20% Sanders
18% Warren (that's +1)
17% Buttigieg (+1)
15% Biden
Telling tidbits from Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: Only 20% have a first choice candidate and say they are unlikely to be persuaded to support someone else.
Sad to learn this. Probably my favorite episode of Laverne and Shirley featured Lenny and the Squiqtones. Performing in a talent show, Squiggy vamped: "This is a little song called Night after Night. It's about two nights, one right after the other. I laughed for days.
I love debates. I love charts. Ross Perot breathed life into the conversation, making it much more of a spectator-friendly event. RIP.
PS: Anyone who knows me will know I objected to his pie charts not starting at 12.00 and reading in a clockwise direction.
I'm increasingly hearing the empty phrase "and whatnot" finish people's sentences. Maybe 10 years ago, it was "and such." Not sure where these habits start.
Telling tidbits from Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll: [Corrected from earlier]
Biden’s favorable rating is down 15 points from March 2019 and his unfavorable rating has almost doubled in that time.
Just curious why many articles with a headline about 23, say, states showing spikes of COVID-19 cases do not list the 23 states. Or show me a map. They'll mention California, maybe, and go in depth with photos of Santa Rosa. I'd like to know the 23 (or whatever) states.
1988--My first presidential election as Iowa Poll director. Summer of 1988, our poll showed Dukakis with a 2-to-1 lead over G.H.W. Bush. The newsroom was skeptical. But they could not find anything else in the poll findings they doubted, so decided to publish the rookie's poll.
@kkondik
The
#Iowa
county map of 1988 presidential election blows my mind. Dukakis not only won the state by 10 points, he carried 75 of the 99 counties. Even Steve King's home county!
I'm just now reading that when Americans listen to happy music, it moves markets upward. One music streaming service says the happiest song is Earth, Wind, and Fire's "September." I counter with Katrina and the Waves "Walking on Sunshine." Other nominations?
Grinnell/Selzer Poll. Trust
Proportion of public who trust sources Completely + Mostly
91%Your doctor
83%Government experts in public health
72%Governor of your state
50%VP Mike Pence
46%President Trump
In a typical state or congressional district, these numbers under DNC rules would mean only Warren and Biden would be >15% & earn delegates. In Iowa, caucus voters have more power & can move to backup choices. Hoping
@jaselzer
will start releasing 2nd choices allowing estimates
In my typical way, I went right to the map, eyeballing the differential by party by district, calculating in my mind that it looked to be about even statewide. Then, I raise my eyes to see the work already done, confirming my eyeballs. 641 difference statewide, advantage GOP.
Going into the 2018 general election, when Ds flipped
#IA01
and
#IA03
and held
#IA02
, the Democratic voter registration advantage was:
about 23K in
#IA01
(nearly 30K now)
about 24K in
#IA02
(around 28K now)
about 1K in
#IA03
(around 15K now)
I’m not an expert in such things. But I would think both teams get a possession in overtime. Otherwise the randomness of the coin toss is determinative?
Grinnell/Selzer Poll. Younger affected more by economic consequences of virus: Lost wages
Majority of 57% under age 35 feel real or anticipated lost wages.
It’s 47% among age 35-54 and 41% of age 55-64.