Doug Johnson Hatlem @djjohnso Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@BED_YouTube

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@FIFA_Fredberg

@Cabify_Peru

@Kevin__Shelton

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@GHUofM

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@ResurusL

@vicbach

@ZenciT

@THE__LORD__X

@hyegums

Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The @cityoftoronto and @johntory think homeless people are a bigger plague than COVID-19. Today they hit 500 Covid cases total in the 7500 person shelter system (5 deaths). Beds still aren’t all 2m apart and they gave encampment residents ONE HOUR notice before bulldozing today.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

I do not envy the person having to explain to Joe Biden why the stock market is tanking during his first week in office.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Now that the NYT needle says Bernie Sanders is likely to win, we are going to stop counting at 97% and start over.

Tom Perez

@TomPerez

4 years

Enough is enough. In light of the problems that have emerged in the implementation of the delegate selection plan and in order to assure public confidence in the results, I am calling on the Iowa Democratic Party to immediately begin a recanvass.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

Jake Angeli, my friends, Jake Angeli. H/T @Clydeside_Red

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The Basic Math of Biden's Certain Win in Pennsylvania: a very brief thread 👇🏻

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The Iowa Democratic Party is refusing to release results from Polk County, where Sanders is leading. Why? #WheresPolk

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

As Kamala Harris drops out, a stark reminder of just how bad @NateSilver538 is at punditry. Mult. times he put her in his top, top tier (1A) where Bernie Sanders, so far as I know, has never risen above 1C. As late as Sept, Nate wrote that she was better positioned than Sanders.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

#10at10 Projection Democratic Primary MICHIGAN Final Call MARCH 10 Sanders 46.8% Biden 44.2% -haven't worked out the delegates -may stop and write up the results from speaking to ~3 dozen registered/likely/non-voters -Biden has both a major enthusiasm gap and organizational gap

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Speaking as someone who has missed moderately bad in projections a couple of times and *very* badly once (a big reason I did not make projections for Nov 2020) ... It is completely galling that @Nate_Cohn has zero humility after this *atrociously* bad performance.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

The worse Bernie Sanders does in a poll, the more likely it is to receive widespread media coverage. @kthalps @adamjohnsonNYC

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Shot. Chaser. (it was an easy prediction; they have adjusted the model every time Sanders has closed the gap on Biden going back to day 2)

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

Lee Carter @carterforva fought like hell (and won!) on things like making insulin way more affordable. Tons of Dems dancing on his political grave tonight not in spite of that fighting spirit, but *because of that fighting spirit.* Plain and simple: not the party of FDR

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

URGENT: Support needed to stop a bullshit hotel-shelter eviction at King & Yonge. Staff from Dixon Hall are refusing to mediate & have threatened to call police w/i the hour if Angelique & Que don’t leave. They are standing up for themselves, want lawyer-media-activist help NOW!

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Nate Silver is wholly irresponsibly priming Democrats to refuse the results of the election again if there is, e.g. a small, normal shift in PA polling over the next few days and then a redux of the 2016 polling error. Totally gross.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

4 years

If the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

1 year

A resident was in this tent 30 seconds ago; horrific violence

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

@aaronjmate Are we now over 50 major news stories that have had to be reracted or seriously corrected, all in the same direction, wrt Russia since 2016?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The needle quickly moves to Trump at 81% chance of winning Florida.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

Sue, 65yo, explains why she is saying no to the City’s violently pressured offer of a $6000/mo shelter hotel space. She will stay in Trinity Bellwoods until forcibly removed by @torontopolice at behest of @johntory . Powerful words! @leilanifarha @ESN_TO @reshminair @cathyacrowe

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

I personally witnessed and took video of this officer being treated. He was being razzed by his fellow officers. It certainly sounded like they were all laughing about a rookie mistake of pepper spraying yourself.

Toronto Police Operations

@TPSOperations

3 years

At least one @TorontoPolice officer has been injured after being sprayed with an unknown substance at the Lamport encampment clearing. Protesters are refusing to leave the park despite trespass notices and cautions. An update on arrests will be provided later today. ^ams

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

7 years

@vqnerdballs @SuperKitty from someone with a seminary degree, that was a clinic! Great work. Enjoyed every tweer thoroughly.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

1 year

Big tears Please support Ken Lee’s family however you are able

Man murdered by 8 teens for protecting his friend, organized by Helen Shum

Shortly after midnight on December 18th, 2022, Ken Lee was swarmed and mu… Helen Shum needs your support for Man murdered by 8 teens for protecting his friend

www.gofundme.com

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

1 year

“I work here. You don’t.”

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

"Minor" ... Pete Buttigieg has too many votes in Blackhawk County (per official chair post) and hundreds of Sanders votes assigned to Deval Patrick and Steyer.

Iowa Democrats

@iowademocrats

4 years

There will be a minor correction to the last batch of results and we will be pushing an update momentarily.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

1 year

How many @TorontoPolice and @cityoftoronto “workers” can you count as “required to clear ONE (disputably) abandoned tent at Allan Gardens this morning?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

52%!!!!! Per early Entrance Poll of #NVCaucus have never caucused before. Yes! Sanders' campaign is driving new voters to the polls.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

This is very serious, if true. It does require investigation. There are non-partisan media outlets in Michigan reporting it.

Robby Starbuck

@robbystarbuck

4 years

One Michigan county clerk caught a glitch in tabulation software so they hand counted votes and found the glitch caused 6,000 votes to go to Biden + Democrats that were meant for Trump and Republicans. 47 MI counties used this software. All must check now!

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

8 years

@jmartNYT @sahilkapur it isn't leftover from Bernie; it is reality. Bernie did not emphasize her dishonesty at all.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

In RCP's Top Battleground States metric: 2020 *is* 2016 Exactly 2016, at the moment.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

@aaronjmate I'll start a thread here to count them (I had started one for a CounterPunch article more than a year ago, but gave up partly because the list just kept growing as I tied to write). So:

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@SymoneDSanders @nytimes Was it the software that caused Biden to wander off camera after falsely stating that he was co-sponsor of the Endangered Species Act?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

1 year

I believe these same 57 units have been announced as many as 8 times over 2.5 years

John Tory

@JohnTory

1 year

Today, we marked more progress on getting housing built in Toronto. We welcomed the delivery and craning in of the first modules that will become new permanent supportive homes with wraparound supports for 57 individuals experiencing homelessness.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Yet another set of polls showing Sanders is the safer bet than Biden in critical swing states in the industrial Midwest. The electability discussion will continue with heads in sand, just like in 2016.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

There is no longer a tweet for everything

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@lknights19 @justtrynab @TRlptychBTS @23rdButterfly @jinkookIesbian He did, to be fair, have like 2.8 seconds to yield.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

7 years

A Chicago cop framed 51 people for murder. Sounds like a man who could use a Pepsi cola right now.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Suffolk with a good poll for Sanders? He really is going to sweep the first three! Nevada, Dem Primary Jan 8-11 Biden 19 (-4) Sanders 18 (+4) Warren 11 (-8) Buttigieg 8 (+5) Steyer 8 (+5) Yang 4 (+1) Klobuchar 4 (+4) (Change over Suffolk Sep 19-23)

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

In a total shocker, centrist data people are pushing an anti-Sanders falsehood. More people *are* turning out. Dramatically so over 2016 (every state but OK). In several cases (NH, MA, VT, likely CA), it's up over 2008. When CA all in, *overall* turnout may be up over 2008.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

"Design flaw" meaning it wasn't designed in such a way that the establishment candidate(s) can recover from the Nevada drubbing. Latina and Latino voters are going to decide the Democratic nominee in 2020. That's a wonderful thing after 4 years of Trump.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

4 years

A big design flaw is having Super Tuesday (35% of all delegates!) so close to SC. If you had, say, Michigan next week as a buffer, or even just a 10-day window with a debate and time for campaigns to pick up signals from voters/donors/polls/etc, these dynamics would be different.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

If you are watching Florida vote by mail and in person early voting numbers and saying ... Yeah, this is what pollsters were expecting, Biden looking good ... Well, you were never really looking at the polls or are hopelessly naive.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

2 years

We have just concluded adding 12 names to Toronto’s monthly Homeless Memorial We now know of more than 180 people who died homeless in Toronto in 2021

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Biden team gotta be hoping Florida is not highly correlated with elsewhere, as in 2018.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

7 years

CIA: Saddam Hussein has weapons of mass destruction Also CIA: don't listen to Wikileaks; they lie

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The Biden Effect: So far, as in the earliest primary states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada - all swing states), there appears to be a wide swath of voters who suggest they will vote, and vote Biden, but simply do not show up.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

2 months

@emmagf When you persistently print a known liar’s untruths, it makes you a liar too. Even your own colleagues agree this is a farcical accounting.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

7 years

Delete delete delete! @YahooFinance

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Honestly, if @Nate_Cohn had not called this out, Sanders fans could have screamed until blue in the face and everyone would just say "conspiracy theory." #IowaCaucusDisaster

Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn

4 years

it seems the new results have entered many likely Sanders results in Polk County as Deval Patrick or Steyer.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

6 years

@ronhack24 @tamra_hatfield @nebjamin2 @brokenearth10 @davidglaize @wexlerworld @BillieJeanKing @usopen So, same judge. Rafael Nadal: "I'll make sure you never ever referee one of my games again." No penalty. Try again?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

California has counted another 1/4 million ballots since Friday. Sanders' lead over Biden remains 7.3% and his ballot lead has grown by 15K. "Data journalists" like @Nate_Cohn and @Redistrict still refuse to call the race over. It's over. AP was right to call it immediately.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@NateSilver538 Nate, c'mon. You are not consistent or fair at all. He is at 0% with black voters in many polls and under 5% consistently with Latino voters. Clown data, you are up to.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

2 years

Horrible news: As co-keeper of Toronto Homeless Memorial names with @Gruesomebrat , we will be adding initials A.R. (they/them) at the next Memorial A.R. was found frozen, dead on Christmas while camping outside, having failed to find indoor space in spite of endless effort 1/2

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

That Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania is *horrible* news for Biden. It's 5 points of shrinkage in less than 3 weeks in perhaps the most critical state of all. And Q-pac has had about a 7 or 8 point Dem House Effect for the whole cycle.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@CharlesDolph @Jodi7768 Let's look at 538 since @NateSilver538 also has a tweet up denying tightening in state polls: Biden +/-% on the gap in FL 10/13 4.5 10/31 2.0 N.C. 10/19 3.3 10/29 2.1 10/31 2.6 (widening again?) PA 10/11 7.3 10/21 6.2 10/31 4.7 NV 10/29 8.2 10/31 6.0 IA 10/28 1.6 10/31 -1.8

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

@aaronjmate 1.1 On July 27, 2016 the @AP falsely reported that RT (formerly Russia Today) is part of the Russian state media complex. While it receives funding from the Russian government, it is a stand alone entity. On August 2, AP issued a correction on top of an accordingly updated story.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Nate Silver has been wrong about pretty much everything about the 2020 election since Elizabeth Warren first announced her exploratory committee on December 30, 2018.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Hoping to be 4 for 4 in Michigan, 3 against the polling grain. If I am not, and it is a big blowout for Biden, I'm ready to hang my spreadsheets out to dry and invest my free time elsewhere.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

At this point, @torontopolice lie so often about “weapons” and “assault police” charges when it comes to activists or racialized or poor people that journalists should demand some proof and what the weapon is before printing TPS assertions.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

If the Sanders, Warren, and Klobuchar campaigns are correct, Joe Biden's failure is even bigger news than the failure to count votes in a timely fashion. He isn't electable if he isn't viable in Iowa. #IACaucus #IowaCaucuses

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@Redistrict The idea that "blue collar" democrats are more centrist is laughable. Sorry, Dave.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@NateSilver538 Recent Polls, Buttigieg with African American voters Hill-HarrisX (Jan 22): 0% Quinnipiac (Jan 27): 0% Pew (Jan 19): 0% YouGov (Jan 28): 1% Morning Consult (Feb 2): 2% USC/LAT (Jan 31): 3% Emerson (Jan 23): 3.4% SurveyUSA (Jan 17) 5%

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Too tired to write it all up and have the long drive back. Here's a spread sheet without the incredible local colour. Bottom line: Tons of evidence Sanders has a terrific ground game and enthusiastic supporters. Opposite for Biden. Also overconfidence is hurting him.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

At least everything from the Satellite sites in CD-1. Sanders will pass Buttigieg on those alone, most likely.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

2 years

@jgreg30602568 @TonyMM19 @ANewsTweeter @thehill @APDiploWriter @StateDeptSpox Guy 1: Because of the evidence, which I have *just now* declassified. Guy 2: Where? Where can I see or read this evidence. Guy 1: Listen, Guy NUMBER TWO, let’s go print out a transcript of our conversation just now and you will have written evidence that it is already raining.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

@ForecasterEnten LOOLOLOLOL "a mess" Translation: I do not like the results of my own outlet's polling firm. Sorry Charlie. UNH got the primary right in 2016 in NH and doesn't play at intentionally downgrading Sanders.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

LOLLLOOLOL A Republican vote for Mike Bloomberg, a write-in. Perfect. #DixvilleNotch

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Also, a reminder that I called Sanders over Clinton correctly in Michigan in 2016 against a 20 point polling deficit AND called Trump over Clinton correctly, again against the polling grain. Both published. Here's Nov 2016:

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

#DearBernie Start a 3rd party. Whether now, or immediately in November. The Democratic Party is not worthy of the name or its history. They don't give a fig about young people, sick people, immigrants, or anyone who can't fork a bunch of money over to them. Sincerely, djh

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

If video emerged of Bernie Sanders calling a woman a "lying dog-faced pony soldier" in the 1970s, there would be swift calls for his immediate ouster from the race. Joe Biden called a woman at his New Hampshire rally that TODAY.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

Congratulations to @NateSilver538 's third best polling firm in the nation! Tomorrow is the four-year anniversary of this highlight from the annals of ridiculously good data work. IOWA: CLINTON HOLDS A COMMANDING 41 POINT LEAD OVER @BernieSanders

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

4. Even if we *extremely cautiously* move Biden's mail ballot advantage in what is left from 4:1 to 2:1, Biden gains 250K on the gap, totally swamping that 164K lead Trump has. I despise Biden enough not to say congrats. But it is, quite clearly, over. Good riddance to Trump.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Whites *with* bachelor's degrees or greater told Siena/ @Nate_Cohn that they were for Biden by +19 nationally (+15 AZ, +22 PA, +28!! WI). Actual White College per AP/Votecast? Biden +6 That, my friends, is *extremely* strong "shy Trump-er" evidence.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

So NBC/WSJ are just going to spike a poll that could put @TulsiGabbard on the debate stage and no one is going to shrug a shoulder about it?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Will publish my final Iowa projection around 10pm when all polls are in (and I've entered final recent national demog data). As is: Candidate 1st | 2nd | Delg. Sanders: 25.6% 40.4% 17 Biden: 20.7% 32.7%. 14 Warren 17.0% 26.9% 10 Buttigieg 12.6% Klobuchar 8.7%

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Absolutely bar none, the worst general election poll of the cycle for Joe Biden. Friends, we have a horse race on our hands.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

Marjane Satrapi floored me as a director with Radioactive. Beyond phenomenal. #TIFF19

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

Russia did Feinstein dirty with a bunch of 2nd graders. I've seen it all. Trump is going to win again in 2020. This is my forecast, and I'm sticking to it.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

@NateSilver538 Anti-Sanders data punditry; not based on any kind of historical or otherwise defensible data metric applied evenly to all candidates, w/or w/o reasonable adjustment. Btw, has anyone at 538 publicly taken note that Harris has dropped each of last 3 weeks in MC polling?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

You just knew something whacky was going to happen with the CNN hourlong Selzer poll special. CNN would never devote an hour to hyping Bernie Sanders chances.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Ethiopian meat packers Spanish language caucus sites Biden not winning a single county delegate in African American areas Chin and other refugees from Myanmar And it's all going to end with a 107-0 win at an *eight language* community center site!

Carlos E. Rojas Rodriguez

@Carlos_RojasNJ

4 years

In Cedar Rapids, IA dozens of voters caucused at a Multilingual satellite caucus. Attendees spoke 8 different languages and 107 out of 121 picked Sanders as their top candidate. No other candidate reached the 15% viability threshold #IowaCaucus #TioBernie

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Pete is lying. There were 11 Democrats that ran on Medicare for All in 2018 in competitive races. Five of them won. #M4A #SCDebate #DemDebate2020

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Bernie Sanders is 10% up on Biden with Hispanic voters and seriously closing in with African American voters in this week's Morning Consult data.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@MattGrossmann It's moderates like you in an interpretive bubble. It's one reason your polling and forecasting blew serious chunks. You don't know America. At all.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The NYT needle just essentially called Florida for Trump.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Yesterday: @NateSilver538 writes a whole article saying, essentially, maybe all the national polls are wrong and the Breitbart poll in Iowa is correct about Sanders. Let's see some more Iowa and NH polling. Today:

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

5 years

@aaronjmate 2. From July through October, 2016 MSNBC personalities Malcolm Nance and Joy Reid falsely and persistently pushed the line that Clinton related emails from WikiLeaks were or would be faked by Russians.

A Clinton Fan Manufactured Fake News That MSNBC Personalities Spread to Discredit WikiLeaks Docs

Those who most loudly denounce Fake News are typically those most aggressively disseminating it.

theintercept.com

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Toronto City Hall now has an encampment “and we’re not f%*^ing leaving until they re-allocate funds from the police to African, Indigenous, and homeless communities” a speaker just said. Festive scene. Music on blast. Organized by African Indigenous Rising.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The fact that @NateSilver538 & @Nate_Cohn have Florida as a 4 point race right now while RCP and @SeanTrende have it as less than 2% tells you quite a lot about how the two Nate's way of "averaging" lets what they want to happen creep in.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Four years ago I put together a narrow path to victory for Bernie Sanders after Super Tuesday. It was, in fact, VERY narrow. A ton easier this year to put together something realistic for catching up 75 delegates or so as opposed to over 200, as then.

Bernie's Narrow Path to Victory: a Statistical Analysis

Bernie Sanders is not yet realistically eliminated from the race against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination but conceding Florida

www.counterpunch.org

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Looks like four big, "Gold Standard" live caller polls have decided to just not put out a final poll: Monmouth (for sure) ABC/WaPo NPR/PBS/Marist Bloomberg/Selzer Also missing among usual giants: Pew AP-NORC And among regular live callers this cycle: Kaiser

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Find somebody who loves you the way @NateSilver538 loves Joe Biden's chances in Texas.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

⬇️ why the smearmongering is in overdrive

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

2 years

“Sorry to be homeless. Give us homes or give us death.”

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

NYT needle jumps to 76% Trump:

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

3 years

Gotta say, it is a little disturbing that Toronto media just keeps repeating Toronto Police “weapons” charges against people from Lamport resistance without (almost) ever stopping to note that the weapons in question are literally all milk, water, and soup. #CupboardTerrorists

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

The idea that a few R-leaning polls are downweighting averages rather than more than half a dozen partisan hackers or completely unknown polling firms on the right side of this chart upweighting Biden's advantage is ... 😂😂🤣😆

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

A 15 point swing to Bernie Sanders from early February to post-NH with ECU polling in South Carolina.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Life, as they say, is beautiful! A+ pollster. Sanders clearly the most electable in *checks notes* yes, yes, only perhaps the very most important state for November.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Nate’s second attempt to reign in Selzer. There will be more.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

4 years

I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

@ashleyfeinberg I think Rubin voted for her, no?

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Doug Johnson Hatlem

@djjohnso

4 years

Optimistically, but not radically so, the gap between Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders when #SuperTuesday dust settles might be < 30 delegates. Depends on, in CA: A) Bloomberg becoming non-viable everywhere B) Sanders stretching lead to 15% when NPP count finishes in ~30 days

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