Inflexio Research @InflexioSearch Twitter profile

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

I made $JAKK my largest position. Think we are looking at $3.50+ EPS this year and maybe even $4. with more Sustained momentum into 2025. It's hard for me to find a better idea than this one.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

19 days

1/ I took a position in $ILLM.TO. A new CEO recently took over, Biz has seen growth inflect, turned the corner on profitability & has $1/share in net cash, buying back shares. Co. also has a nascent segment at 30% of rev growing 60%. Trades at 0.3x rev and 3x 2025's EBITDA...

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

$PETQ acquired at $31 - by far my biggest position. As I said multiple time, this was a clear take-out candidate given it was slowly becoming a consumer products business. Massive win and congrats to all who followed!

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

Still continue to really like $PETQ despite the move up. By far my biggest position. Growing EBITDA 15%, earnings 20%+, 11x EPS, likely 55-60m fcf this year, so 10%+ yield. I also sleep well knowing they benefit from consumer weakness with a lot more product momentum to come.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

$JAKK...wow! No other words. Completely blew through my bullish expectations. Completely decoupled from other toy names. Over 95m in net cash, or $9.5/share. John Kimble, a true legend. Given the accelerated cash generation timeline, prefs should be paid back imminently. Just wow

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

Very hard to watch $JAKK at these levels when the company is trading at close to 40% FCF yield (15% FCF yield on 2019's FCF, but gives no credit for 400 bps improvement in gross margin)... no more death convert... better product line-up... and streaming cos pumping out content.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

1/ $JAKK is a better set-up here than 1 yr ago. inventory destocking aside, $JAKK owns the master license for Nintendo. $NTDOY has been on the sidelines of the box office following the 1993 movie failure. Mario's success this year could unleash a wave of content, both sequels and

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

$BRMI.TO - Are we missing something here? Stock is 90c....Just sold a biz for 92c a share and owns 9% of an entity TPG will likely grow to oblivion and stock isn't moving ? And the stock has $1.30 in net cash? Buying.

everyonehatespoetry

@everyonehatesp1

3 months

Someone remind the market that $BRMI.TO now has $1.33 of cash per share with the stock trading at $0.90, $10M of EBITDA in a depressed year due to the actors and writers strike, $15-20M normalized EBITDA, and you own 8.8% of TPG's Talent and Entertainment Roll up

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

1/ I took a position in $EZPW - EZCORP is a pawn shop operator, trading at <5x EBITDA and set to grow HSD/DD for the next 3-4 years as I believe they are a key beneficiary of the current credit and macroeconomic conditions permeating through the US and LATAM

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

$JAKK Rosen is back to buying stock with a 10K purchase on Friday - he hasn't bought shares since 2022 and has ridden the stock up to highs and back down here. Interesting development - I am sure he is getting impatient and the likelihood of him pushing for capital return is high

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

I added to my $JAKK position - too much to like in the story for this valuation... ABG, Simpsons, strong movie slate for next 3 years, return of capital, international expansion, and a rock solid balance sheet. We could be doing 80m+ of ebitda in 2025 with 80m in net cash.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

if you like the $REVG pitch, I would urge you to look at $NFI.TO. Transit bus manufacturer in NA, $REVG was a competitor but exited the market. Backlog is up on a stick, profitability inflecting, duopolistic industry + federal taksforce set to improve profitability of industry

Connor Haley

@AltaFoxCapital

5 months

Today, we are publishing on a new, high-conviction idea. It is an off the radar, leading player in an attractive essential services oligopoly with a ~3 year backlog of demand and meaningful operating leverage. We believe margins can double in the near-term as the impact of ~40%

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

$AGS acquired by PE for $12.50! Congrats to anyone who's been following the story with me. Not many of us following it, but it pays to stick to the fundamentals! My major double-digit weight position for me...Feel like the bid undervalues the biz but can't complain!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

Impressive Q for $JAKK given the environment/near-term issues. Lots of initiatives headed in the 2H2024. Not crazy to think we see 60m ebitda for FY. 2025 looks awesome, and 2026 even better. Co. is diversifying customer base, growing its IP, & becoming less hit driven. Holding!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 month

$JAKK initiated at Maxim. It's a tiny sell-side shop but good to have more eyeballs on the name. $46 TP is bold but achievable.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

1/ People have asked me what is my TP on $JAKK. The stock today is cheaper than it was pre-quarter. Using 80m of ebitda at 3x (the same multiple as in Q3) and 75m of net cash (20m of payable+tax removed from cash given it was deffered to Q4), remove $37m of pref...gets me to $28.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

26 days

Love to see all the little wins for $JAKK - Recognised as top hard good supplier by Target & its toys in Walmart's top toys for 2024 (has that happened before?)...Simpsons reception is very strong...Also seems like they expanded their partnership with Sega for new retro IP toys

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

I decided to do a full write-up of $EAGR.TO on substack - my second biggest position. mobile game studio <5x EPS. Buying back as many shares as they can, profitability has inflected massively and many catalysts ahead to accelerate revenue growth

East Side Games Group Inc. (TSX:EAGR) Pitch

Emerging mobile game company with a net cash balance sheet trading under 3x EBITDA and 5x normalized earnings

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$JAKK was written up a few minutes ago on Forbes... did not know forbes did deep dive on illiquid micro-caps. But hey, anything helps.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

19 days

$JAKK initiated at B. Riley with $37 TP...Love to see it. His estimates for 2024 at 46m of EBITDA and $1.91 EPS are extremely low...wont complain, as it sets us up for nice beats. Similarly, 2025 with 53m of EBITDA looks absurdly low.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

@puppyeh1 👏 I wasn't always of that opinion but wholeheartedly agree with the conclusion today- $BRAG is a tremendous business not suited for public markets. Its in the best interest of every stakeholder to simply sell.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

1/ I'm back into $JAKK - Timely sale in hindsight but happy to have an opportunity to reload. Q2/Q3 will be noisy quarters but biz fundamentals + outlook too good to not take a shot here. ABG + Simpsons rollout in 2025 will address the exact issues affecting the stock today...

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

10 months

I've exited my position in $JAKK - Hopefully, I get another shot at owning, but for now, I am happy to book the gain. Congrats to everybody who joined in!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

Two things I have noticed about $JAKK 1. First time they disclose amazon as a major customer in their 10-Q (11% of revenue) growing 25%+. Something to watch 2. Their youtube channel activity has grown considerably. Clearly repositoning their marketing. Viewer count has exploded

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

@iancassel $TRCK - Double-digit recurring revenue grower in a growing industry at 7x EBITDA. EBITDA margin expanded from negative to 29% in the latest quarter. They had debt problems but just refinanced it + won big contract. Quite illiquid though. See my research!

Track Group, Inc (TRCK): a Double-Digit Recurring Revenue Growth Story Trading at 6x EBITDA

Track Group is a long-term secular growth story with two imminent hidden catalysts that will uplift the stock

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

@iancassel $FORA.TO , VerticalScope. Purchases & monetizes forums & websites (car forums, the streamable, redflag, etc)... generates over US$19M in FCF per year, insiders buying, actively deleveraging, high insider ownership, and has sellside coverage (access to capital). I am long!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

$GAN acquired for 0.7x rev - distressed multiple warranted for a company losing clients, contracts, not profitable, and declining rev. $BRAG trades at nearly the same distressed valuation despite accelerating growth, significant customer wins, and a strong outlook. Mind-boggling.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

19 days

Maybe explains a bit the recent outperformance for $ZOMD.V given their specialization is social media performance marketing. Travel is a nice vertical for the company too...so awareness can only help.

scuttleblurb

@scuttleblurb

19 days

recent comments from $bkng "we are really excited about this social media because we are now seeing that the effectiveness of social media platforms in terms of performance marketing spend has suddenly seen kind of a leapfrog change. Why? Because we see that the effectiveness of

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

1/ I am long $FORA.TO, VerticalScope. The company acquires forums and other niche websites (Redflag, Car forums, etc.) that are then monetized (ads, affiliates). This results in a significant uplift in earnings. These websites have over 100m MAU and very little CAPEX is needed.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$JAKK, solid quarter. this CFO has demonstrated he can navigate any environment. Sell-through accelerated in the quarter, and inventories are extremely low. 60-70m EBITDA as the new normal seems real. Looking forward to the call

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

6 months

Nice chart on the online space.... $AGS and $BRAG continuing to gain market share as the bigger players $EVO.SS seem to be losing share to the mid-tier players

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 month

$QIPT CEO bought $300K in the open market - great to see.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

$BRAG Agreed on every point. Been a big supporter but clearly, the market is having a hard time paying up for a Slovenian-based operator with 95%+ revenue in Europe, listed in Canada, with 25%+ customer concentration risk (albeit addressed). Selling is the best course of action.

Jeremy Raper

@puppyeh1

11 months

$BRAG.TO $BRAG

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

8 months

Another iGaming asset getting acquired at an obscene valuation. Jackpocket bought for 5.6x 2024's revenue while $BRAG trades at 1x...different businesses/products...but still crazy to see.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

1/ thread on $AGS and the recent 10$ bid. Happy to see the management refuse such a weak offer. Their decision was likely backed by Apollo (despite itching to monetize their stake). This offer comes at a time when the market is finally realizing the company’s potential:

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

@AltaFoxCapital $TRCK - Quite illiquid but Double-digit recurring revenue grower in a secularly growing industry at 7.3x EBITDA. EBITDA margin expanded from negative 5 years ago to 29% in the latest quarter and they just refinanced debt + won big contract. See research.

Track Group, Inc (TRCK): a Double-Digit Recurring Revenue Growth Story Trading at 6x EBITDA

Track Group is a long-term secular growth story with two imminent hidden catalysts that will uplift the stock

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

Looks like $JAKK also scored another major win: a partnership with Authentic Brands ($20b revenue company) and the Simpsons in 2024 (shown in their presentation)...Both of these could lift EBITDA materially.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

10 months

I've exited my position in $JAKK - Hopefully, I get another shot at owning, but for now, I am happy to book the gain. Congrats to everybody who joined in!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$HAS actively exiting partner brand (licensed toys) relationships that are too "small" for them. Could be an opportunity for $JAKK to acquire new customers and continue to grow their business outside of Disney and Nintendo.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$NGMS was bought by Aristocrat for a 130% premium or 15x 2023's EBITDA. Good support for gaming names trading at cheap multiples ( $BRAG), iGaming/Betting was 69% of rev. and 50% of EBITDA for 1H2022

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

I don't own it anymore, but $JAKK keeps on giving...congrats (?) to those still holding! What the management team has done to turn around the ship is nothing short of impressive.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

I am happy to share my second research report. This time on $TRCK. Track Group is a secular growth story with two imminent hidden catalysts, trading at 6x ebitda. Let me know what you think! Remember to subscribe as to not miss any of my new research

Track Group, Inc (TRCK): a Double-Digit Recurring Revenue Growth Story Trading at 6x EBITDA

Track Group is a long-term secular growth story with two imminent hidden catalysts that will uplift the stock

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$JAKK falling in solidarity with $MAT and $HAS. Strong quarter from $MAT (who is down 15%) and a shit one from $HAS (down 10%). IMO $JAKK will be yet again decoupled from the other toy names. A good opportunity to add.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

$RILY hit with a short report, which outlines fair points (but well understood that B Riley serves the dogs of the market). Insiders respond by buying shares the same day. Will be interesting to see the story unfold.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

1/ Another solid quarter from $JAKK. The management delivered growth on all metrics despite a 900 bps headwind to gross margins. What’s even better is their optimism surrounding growth in 2022 and their ability to drive growth with existing IP only (Mario,Sonic, ILY)

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

4 months

@JerryCap Evolution seems to be losing market share in recent months in US per Eilers data. They were at 25% market share of GGR last year, now closer to 18%. Also, fear around new tech+new entrants potentially disrupting their live dealer share (see $LNW, $INSE)

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

@TomGardnerFool $TRCK - Ankle monitoring device company. Alternative to prisons. Growing internationally. Double digit grower, highly recurring revenue (98%), technological MOAT, and two strong catalyst (new contrat+just refi'd debt). See my research!

Track Group, Inc (TRCK): a Double-Digit Recurring Revenue Growth Story Trading at 6x EBITDA

Track Group is a long-term secular growth story with two imminent hidden catalysts that will uplift the stock

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

7 months

I've pitched quite a few names over the last year - I think it would be good to have a pinned post on the names I pitched and still own...in no particular order: $BRAG $AGS $EZPW $PETQ $IIPR $QIPT $RVLY.V $EAGR.TO

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 month

Won't take the credit for this one, @gillani_rahil put it on my radar! I was able to get in before the Q. Never seen a quarter like this. Added to it after the report. Trading at 3.3x ebitda, net cash, and just saw 54% growth quarter with seasonality skewed to 2H2024

everyonehatespoetry

@everyonehatesp1

1 month

Got a quick pitch, Zoomd Technologies $ZOMD.V. Credit goes to @InflexioSearch who posted about it on MCC. This is a pretty simple pitch. Zoomd is an ad tech company that got too bold during the 2020-2021 period, expanded in all kinds of businesses and started losing money.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

+40% since! Love to see it $NFI.TO

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

if you like the $REVG pitch, I would urge you to look at $NFI.TO. Transit bus manufacturer in NA, $REVG was a competitor but exited the market. Backlog is up on a stick, profitability inflecting, duopolistic industry + federal taksforce set to improve profitability of industry

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

In my latest substack post, I scourge through a number of quarterly letters and summarize a few interesting ideas. $TBRD by @AKWilk $BFIT by @davidhpolansky & @BoringPMGuy $GTX by @Mc_Partnerships $TACT by @LaughingH20Cap $SZL.AX by @East72Holdings

Quarterly Letters Ideas: Q2 2021

Every quarter, I scourge through a countless number of quarterly letters for the best micro/small-cap stock ideas so you don’t have to.

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

4 months

I have been accumulating shares of $EAGR.TO after the move down to <0.80c. Co. should return to growth in the coming Qs with many game launches. Trades <3x ebitda and <8x EPS buying back as many shares as they can while piling up cash. I also expect more partnership announcements

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

6 months

I am not usually a day trader but I am cashing in more profits here.... stock is now above $1.05 and up another 40%...tripled from the lows and doubled from the initial entry point. Nutty. $EAGR.TO

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

One thing I have learned in Micro-cap land...when they rip for no/wrong reasons and they are within 20-30% of your target price....Sell. Usually, the fundamental inflection in micro-cap stocks never last.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

$BRAG renegotiated its contract with Betcity until 2025. Good news. The contract will then be migrated in-house to Entain. Betcity will likely be less than 20% of revenue by that time (potentially even less as a % of EBITDA given PAM is lower margin than content) - good update.

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

Another nice win for $BRAG - BetMGM in NJ They should report another good quarter next week with updates likely on the betcity contract.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

1/ Solid quarter from $JAKK. More importantly, they are showing they can properly manage the business in any environment, which IMO is key. The biz was still perceived by investors as being a "mickey mouse" operation, but this quarter solidified both their earnings potential...

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$BRAG CEO out and Matevz, founder and biggest shareholder, back as CEO. Writing as on the wall given 40% of shareholders voted against CEO at the AGM. Slowly headed torwards an eventual sale of the biz given Matevz has been trying to monetize for years.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

6 months

$BRAG reported Q4; weaker than expected but anticipated given betcity renegotiation. Strategic review initiated and an eventual sale likely the outcome. Interestingly, Netherlands revenue ex betcity +33% QoQ and USA +11% QoQ

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

Another disgusting quarter from $PETS, even if you adjust for one-time items. $112M in cash doing absolutely nothing. When will the board resign? The CEO leaving isn't enough. Such a good asset at the hand of incompetent leaders. @MadThunderdome I heard you were going activist?😉

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

$PETQ Great Quarter! Rev +6.2%, but owned brands +14.3% which led to 280 bps of GM improvement. EBITDA +15% and FY guidance raised with Q2 guidance looking conservative once again. FCF raised to at least 50m... This stock is simply too cheap.

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

6 months

$PETQ has recovered since the drop post Q but still nowhere close to where it should be - This is by far my biggest position and the company is set for another blowout Q. Estimates for the year are low, guidance is conservative, and consumption trends are very strong into spring.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

Continue to think my stocks are well positioned in any environment: $EZPW - beneficiary of this macro $MCS - hotel might hurt, but cinemas are trade-down plays + asset value protects downside $PETQ - trade down beneficiary $QIPT - relatively insulated

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$AGS insider purchases rolling in. Good to see. Also, many I speak to worry about their leverage.... but funny to see how $LNW will be 3.5x levered after $SCPL's buyout yet still trades at a 70% premium to $AGS while slowly losing share to them. Still long $AGS big time.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

8 months

$EZPW Another really strong quarter. Rev +13.5%, EBITDA +21%, EPS +29%...buying back shares and basically sub 6x earnings Macro is extremely conducive to future earnings growth as well. Feel really good about this one.

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

$EZPW Quarter out. Rev +16%, EBITDA +26%, EPS +53%. Continuing to buyback shares. Loyalty program up 100% YoY and 15% QoQ... tells you a lot about the value proposition in the context of the environment. Call is tomorrow.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

$EVRI & $IGT merger acquired by Apollo. Unfortunately, I missed that one. All gambling assets are leaving the public market. it's pretty wild how quickly it is happening

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

@BrownMarubozu From EOY 2019 to today, $JAKK reduced net debt by $148m or $14.75/share in theoretical equity accretion... The stock closed 2019 at $10.30... We basically have seen multiple compression despite EBITDA going from 30m to now sustainably 60-70m. Easily worth $25-30 near term.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$IGT in talk to sell its gaming biz to apollo for $4-5b...good for valuation of all beaten gaming names... $AGS, $EVRI

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

19 days

10/ With $1/share in net cash, downside is relatively protected, and the upside could be magical. Assuming the co. can do 10% EBITDA margin, and generate 150m+of rev in the coming years, one could underwrite 6-8x EBITDA, getting you to a $2.80-3.50 stock in the next 12-18 months

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

$JAKK upgraded to a buy at Jefferies... the last bear in the street. A pretty low/late conviction upgrade IMO after the company proved them wrong 10 quarters in a row. Congrats to all the holders! As usual, I sold too early. 🤣

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

Gambling assets getting taken out left and right $AGS now $GLXZ

Sterling Capital

@jay_21_

3 months

$GLXZ offer at $3.2 from $EVO

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 years

Repercussions are starting... $AT.TO had CAD 86m$ in cash and US$55m of that was with $SVB. How many more are there like that?

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

Following @Plum_Capital 's lead, I am also posting my due diligence for $JAKK. I believe it to be a great risk/reward story from here. I also took this opportunity to start my substack and will be posting an amazing idea next week! Make sure to subscribe

Special Situation: Jakks Pacific (JAKK): A toymaker hated by Wall Street

Following years of mismanagement, JAKK is finally executing and Wall Street has yet to catch on to the story.

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

6 months

$PETQ has recovered since the drop post Q but still nowhere close to where it should be - This is by far my biggest position and the company is set for another blowout Q. Estimates for the year are low, guidance is conservative, and consumption trends are very strong into spring.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

1/ Has anyone taken a look at Leaf Mobile? $LEAF.TO / $LEMLF Went through a reverse merger w/ Eastside games earlier this year and uplisted to the TSX. Growing Mobile game company with a focus on 'counter-culture games.' The company seems to have many good things going for it...

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

Glad to see @AltaFoxCapital joined the $BRAG train in their most recent 13F! I continue to say it; $BRAG is one of the most compelling stories in the gambling space Still a big holder despite the recent move.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

1/ took a position in $MCS - Marcus Corp. Operates two biz: Theatres (63% of rev) and Hotels (37%). The company trades at 4.8x 25's EBITDA, a significant discount to both cinema comps and hotel comps despite being less levered (1.5x) than peers and owns 70% of its real estate...

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

10 months

$HAS down 22% and $JAKK up 62% since Oct 25 Aftermarket, WSJ published that Hasbro is laying off 1100 employees due to weak holiday demand....market will smack all toy names down again. Will we get a chance for another scoop of $JAKK? Harder to predict this time given the run...

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$JAKK falling in solidarity with $MAT and $HAS. Strong quarter from $MAT (who is down 15%) and a shit one from $HAS (down 10%). IMO $JAKK will be yet again decoupled from the other toy names. A good opportunity to add.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

Doubling down on $EZPW here. One of the few consumer-related names accelerating growth, trading <5x ebitda and actively buying back stock. Extremely compelling risk-reward opportunity. They are likely to report another record quarter. 120m+ EBITDA on ≈500m EV.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

$JAKK released its first wave of ABG products on its website. Very interesting to see a new customer in the mix: Academy Sports. that's huge for customer concentration and diversification overtime, which supports multiple expansion.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

I’ve exited all of my position in $JAKK today. While I am sure there is still upside (and maybe selling too early, the usual), I find there are a lot of other opportunities in the US stock market. Will keep a close watch on it if it comes down again… it’s been a good one!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

$EAGR.TO The new Power Ranger game seems to be doing well. Their studio partner outlined that there were 100K+ pre-registrations, and pre-release KPIs were solid. Already 1000+ reviews. Reviews could be better, but not bad, given it was released 3 days ago

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

In my latest Substack post, I revisit $AGS & $JAKK following their Q2 earnings call. $AGS' management provided new data for their premium units (very positive). $JAKK showcased a phenomenal quarter, and institutional interest is picking up!

Update on PlayAGS (AGS) & Jakks Pacific (JAKK)

I summarize recent quarterly results and my positioning for Jakks Pacific & PlayAGS.

inflexio.substack.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

8 months

$QIPT killing it. Revenue +60%, EBITDA +71%. Organic growth +2% QoQ and good forward commentary. stock is too cheap given secular tailwinds and currenr biz performance. Only caveat is civil investigation by DOJ ( $OMI/ $AHCO have received many of those as well). Call tommorow.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

$JAKK Lawrence Rosen has yet again bought more shares. Now owns 16%...While the current CEO is selling. Feels like we get a new CEO soon enough? Or the company will be sold....why would a credit shop like BSP hold on to the equity AND debt. Either way, would be a huge positive.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

A phenomenal quarter from $JAKK. 18% growth vs 2019 levels. TTM EBITDA $50M, and $5M EBITDA in a seasonally weak quarter. Q3 should be another strong quarter as Halloween makes a comeback. Almost all of the converts are now redeemed.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

Still continue to really like $PETQ despite the move up. By far my biggest position. Growing EBITDA 15%, earnings 20%+, 11x EPS, likely 55-60m fcf this year, so 10%+ yield. I also sleep well knowing they benefit from consumer weakness with a lot more product momentum to come.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

Came in sooner than expected. So we are effectively just back to pre-quarter valuation/price. $JAKK next stop $35?

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

1/ People have asked me what is my TP on $JAKK. The stock today is cheaper than it was pre-quarter. Using 80m of ebitda at 3x (the same multiple as in Q3) and 75m of net cash (20m of payable+tax removed from cash given it was deffered to Q4), remove $37m of pref...gets me to $28.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

2/ Plus, the writer strike is now in rearview with many movies coming out over the next 2 years, culminating in Frozen + Mario 2 in '26. CFO has done everything right so far and should soon return capital. $5 EPS at 8x + 50m of fcf over the next 2 years. get me to a $45 stock

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

7 months

1/ Took a position in $PETQ - Pet product distributor slowly becoming a pet product manufacturer (going from 10% gross margin biz to 55%+). Nice margin expansion story. It's also a play on trade-down on animal health as they sell generic meds which are often 60% cheaper.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

good to see $brag perform well post-quarter...usually it drops 20-30%! Despite consistent record results, the stock is flat over the last 12 months and remains cheap on both 2023 and 2024 estimates. Probably one of the most compelling gambling name in the stock market.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

Yesterday, the last PE on $GENI was taken out through a block trade. Major overhang cleared for the stock. the only thing left this year is operator contract renegotiation and this thing can fly. Sports betting US data has also been very strong. Been adding to it.

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

Took a position in $GENI - growing 20%+ trading <9.5x next year's ebitda with big margin upside. Sportsbetting growth tailwind in USA + LATAM rapidly opening up. Significant takerate opportunity through new betvision product + contract renegotiation with operators later this year

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

1/ I have exited my $BRAG position - would've loved to see the company get sold but too many red flags have emerged: Q4 was their first guidance miss ever for which they blame betcity's renegotiated contract. That said, Betcity was clearly not the reason for the weakness as...

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

7 months

Entain is looking to sell brands not integrated into its technology stack. Amongst them, is Betcity, $BRAG's biggest customer. $BRAG likely retains the PAM contract much longer than anticipated if it changes hands (expires Sept 2025). Pretty positive IMO

Entain examines possible sale of overseas gambling brands

FTSE 100 group hires Wall Street boutique Moelis to advise on possible disposals

www.ft.com

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 years

$JAKK quarter solid IMO given stock price action last month. Revenue lower than expected but explained by inventory build up sitting on China (40M build-up). Extremely bullish Q4 commentary, new area of growth, and 2022 commentary.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

11 months

1/ $BRAG first look on the quarter; Solid. Revenue grew 8% only, but that is due to the betcity renegotiation. Betcity revenue declined 29% YoY - This means underlying growth was 35%. Betcity is now only 28% of rev. Importantly, despite a 29% decline, ebitda is up 70%...

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

6 months

Bought $MDI.TO - simple thesis; gold is at ATH. Seeing more junior mining equity raise. Demand likely inflecting real time + growing non-gold biz... stock is 4.5x ebitda with net cash balance sheet when it used to trade at 6-7x ebitda mid-cycle - prob works to $12+ near-term

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

I am taking my profits on $GENI and have fully exited. Congrats to those who joined, +26% in less than 3 months while the russel is unchanged. I still like the story, but given the valuation + recent market implosion, I want to reinvest it in higher return ideas.

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

$GENI Great Q - Revenue +10%, EBITDA +33%, and raised the guidance. Signed Football Dataco through 2029 and sports betting renegotiations are going well with a few signed. Bodes well for 2025. The company also said they have margin expansion visibility into the end of the decade

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$RILY Equity deal...Stock is up 38% since the short report, Bryant's equity holdings have also ripped/been monetized, the investment banking arm is probably performing much better, and no likely liquidity risk with this equity deal... Bryant Riley always finds a way.

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

$GENI Great Q - Revenue +10%, EBITDA +33%, and raised the guidance. Signed Football Dataco through 2029 and sports betting renegotiations are going well with a few signed. Bodes well for 2025. The company also said they have margin expansion visibility into the end of the decade

Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

Took a position in $GENI - growing 20%+ trading <9.5x next year's ebitda with big margin upside. Sportsbetting growth tailwind in USA + LATAM rapidly opening up. Significant takerate opportunity through new betvision product + contract renegotiation with operators later this year

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

5 months

What are the top "trade-down" small cap consumer stocks? The last 12 years were driven by premiumization, and that will take years to reverse as consumer psychology shifts. A lot of companies can take advantage of this

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

Solid Q1 from $AGS. Lots of product momentum, slowly gaining market share, and many catalysts in the near term. Pushback on the name continues to be leverage but they are making strides there too. stock performance vs peers continues to be a headscratcher. Still long!

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

3 months

4th largest player in the HME space, Rotech, was acquired by $OMI. 6.3x ebitda What does it mean for $QIPT, the 5th biggest player, trading at 3.3x EBITDA?

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

2 months

$EAGR.TO reported results slightly lower than my expectation driven by a return to UA spend to support their recent game launches. Full update can be found in my substack. The set-up remains very compelling, especially with the new RuPaul game, and I continue to like and hold it

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Inflexio Research

@InflexioSearch

1 year

$VVI reported a solid quarter with good growth across both businesses. Their new experiences are performing well and I can see a path to 160-170m EBITDA in 2024. Lots of room to raise the guidance this year. Still long the name and feel confident about the trajectory of the biz.

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