@USA_Polling
The things he is saying regarding abortion rights is about the worst thing he can do for his campaign. A large percentage of evangelical Christians ONLY support him because of that. This is definitely not positive for him to say this.
I am 26 years old today
November will be the 3rd election cycle I have voted in
2016 I voted Trump
2020 I voted Trump
But in 2024….. I vote D
Often times republicans tell people that voting should be age restricted. Well they’re right, when your young you don’t make the
Very sad news. Vernon Dvorak, the creator of the DVORAK technique Has died at age 100. Without this man, the tools we have today to estimate storms on satellite, wouldn’t be the same. His work definitely inspired me and surely is what has me this invested. RIP Mr Dvorak 1922-2022
GFS continues to show an extremely powerful hurricane in the Caribbean Sea next week. Formation time now expected around 6 days. If anything develops, a ULAC and jet stream while traversing 100+ OHC can lead to rapid intensification. Caribbean Islands should monitor this system.
Eye of Cat 5 Super Typhoon
#Mawar
has continued to dry efficiently, and is now one of the driest eyes I can recall on geostationary imagery. A very dry eye is an indication of extreme subsidence in the center, another feature that’s reserved for very intense upper end TCs.
The first JTWC forecast is out and for the first time ever, a Cat 5 on an initial forecast cone. JTWC has
#18S
ramping up to a peak of atleast 140knots in 96 hours before landfalling on the Australian coastline east of Port Hedland.
STY
#Mawar
has the best satellite presentation globally imo since Goni in 2020. It doesn’t seem as if strengthening has stopped either, with a warming eye and a more uniform and smooth CDO with cooling cloud tops, we could soon be looking at an absolute upper echelon monster.
#Yagi
is closing on a historic Vietnam landfall, which could end up happening at a high end Category 3 or Category 4 strength. This part of the country has never seen higher than a Category 2. And
#Yagi
has a well organized radar presentation and CDO as it approaches
#Haiphong
.
It is absolutely heartbreaking to know that 6,000+ people are dead from storm
#Daniel
in Libya. This is the deadliest tropical system since STY
#Haiyan
in 2013, which was a 170knot (at-least). Crazy how just a regular tropical storm can be as deadly as one of the strongest ever.
GFS goes absolutely wild when it comes to
#98S
and develops a 882mb high end Category 5 monster. This system will be in a favorable environment and likely become a major, and possibly much more. But it’s extremely difficult if not impossible to predict this intensity.
Water vapor loop of
#Mocha
and
#92S
greatly demonstrate the power WWBs have on the tropics. A near ideal outflow pattern has allowed Mocha to become the equivalent of a Super Typhoon, prior to its catastrophic landfall, while a post season TC in the SHEM can be seen developing.
6+ foot of water in my house. People driving cars down the road creating a wake like a boat. Horns going off everywhere. Wind increasing gusting to near 100mph, flood waters rising still.
A historic weather event, and not in a good way, is hours away from unfolding.
#Yagi
has intensified back to a Category 4 per 00z ATCF fix. Deep convection is wrapping around the eye which is warming in the EIR loop. 4-5 hours remain before a catastrophic landfall near Haiphong,
The impact to
#China
cannot be understated. This is not something they experience very often. Maybe once every 25 years. 17 foot of surge on the Leizhou Peninsula is expected by CMA. This is the main threat, but wind gusts exceeding 100+knots are also very likely.
#Freddy
has smashed the most prestigious record of them all, and has become the highest ACE storm on record. At 85.88 ACE units, it has officially surpassed Hurricane/Typhoon
#Ioke
from 2006 at 85.26 ACE. No other SHEM storm is top 15, while Freddy sits atop the world. Legendary.
Every tropical tracker loves watching loops like this when during the significant RI phase the eye begins to clear out very rapidly all of a sudden. Really is unfortunate for Guam, and hope they’re prepare to the best of their abilities because
#Mawar
is cranking.
#Beryl
has weakened into a remnant low, ending its historic and legendary run. Beryl was only the 2nd Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane during the month of July (Emily 2005 the other). It made 3 destructive landfalls along its path and brought impacts to Jamaica. Producing 35 ACE, it
2 microwave images 5 hours apart shows that
#Yagi
after EWRC completion, is re-organizing over the Gulf of Tonkin. The storm has around 8 hours remaining over very warm waters prior to its final and very dangerous landfall near
#Haiphong
, Vietnam.
JTWC 2023 Best Track Data was released. Notable changes are Typhoon Saola (4th pic) upgraded to Cat 5 status at 160mph/917mb smaking 3 for 2023 WPAC. But most notably, is Mawar and Bolaven being increased to 190mph/891mb and 190mph/897mb respectively. This makes 2023 the first
Legendary
#Mawar
has ended its run. Mawar has become a post tropical low as it races off South of Japan. This WPAC legend peaked with max winds of 160knots (185mph) and 897mb, becoming the strongest in the month of May in the satellite era. Also producing a whopping 56 ACE units.
10 years ago on this day.
#Haiyan
struck the Philippines at a ridiculous intensity of 170knots. One of the strongest storms ever recorded, and was absolute perfection and a textbook Tropical Cyclone on satellite even to this day. It changed the lives of millions with its impact.
2023 is off to a fast start with Cat 5s. Last year the first one didn’t form until August 30th with Hinnamnor, this year we’ve seen 4 already through the first 5 months. With
#Freddy
,
#Kevin
,
#Ilsa
in the SHEM; and now
#Mocha
in the BoB. Good shot ALL basins get on this year!!.
Update: Waters level have began to recede and winds have died down, Although occasionally gusting 50+mph. I am staying in my attic tonight where it is dry. I was able to get my cats ashes, phone and wallet and the clothes on my back. Everything else is gone. I have lost everythin
I am now in grave danger as the winds continue to increase and the water levels rise and the surge level has entered my house and the eye hasn’t passed my longitude yet. I have relocated to higher ground in an attic with what I was able to grab.
#Julia
seems to be organizing quicker than before, recon has also found the center has relocated to the deep convection of -75C and -80C which will allow for quicker intensification. I believe it will peak higher than forecasted. Unfortunately significant rainfall potential.
This is WILD.
#Freddy
’s eye now has WMG in it (warm medium grey) it made landfall with a COLDER eye than it has now. The eye has warmed and the convection has cooled while ON LAND. Likely not strengthening due to friction. But brown ocean effect is slowing the weakening here.
Thoughts and prayers with those of Mozambique, especially
#Quelimane
, their lives will unfortunately be changed forever. I know first hand how devastating this can be. Moving slow while clearing an eye undergoing intensification just off your coastline is potentially catastrophic
Update
#3
: conditions have subsided. Waters receded but massive flooding of stagnant nasty salty water remains on my street. Catastrophic damage. I lost everything except the clothes on my back.
Just how amazing is
#Freddy
’s ACE level? To put it into perspective, Freddy has generated more ACE than EVERY NIO season on record. Even the most active ever, 2019, which had 78 ACE units with a 175mph Cat 5 and 5 total major hurricanes. Freddy has generated more ACE than that.
#Yagi
has dissipated over Southeast Asia, and the chapter closes on another WPAC legend. Yagi was one of less than 10 Super Typhoons in the South China Sea. It officially peaked as a C5 per JTWC, but one could argue the 2nd peak has a stronger case for C5. Yagi made the 2nd
Despite the eye becoming cooler and the CDO southerly weighted. Radar confirms the storm hasn’t lost organization, if anything it has intensified as radar shows a very robust and healthy eyewall with wind readouts of 160knots at 750mb aloft, supporting well into Category 4
STY
#Mawar
is likely very close to, if not complete with the eyewall replacement cycle. As a result, restrengthening is expected, it may take awhile before we see improvements on satellite, which may take up to 12 hours due to usual upper level lag compared to mid level.
Super Typhoon
#Mawar
now up to a 160 knots (185mph) and down to 897mb per JTWC as it continues to move WNW across the Philippine Sea. An EWRC could soon begin, but Mawar is about as impressive as you’ll ever see. They don’t get much better than this. This is an absolute monster.
Super Typhoon
#Noru
has been upgraded to a Category 5, the 2nd of the WPAC this season and 2nd worldwide. An EWRC is likely beginning quite soon so it is likely peaking, however it will make a devastating and catastrophic landfall in Luzon, Philippines in around 12 hours.
#Mawar
is re-strengthening post EWRC which was complicated by shear and dry air. Thankfully so, because it delayed completion until post Guam. However it’s now deepening again, and we are very likely to see it regain Super Typhoon status again.
#Mocha
is greatly benefiting from a jet interaction while passing over 100+ OHC. The system is approaching or is at T7.0 on the Dvorak, which means nearing Category 5. Likely a Super Cyclonic Storm now. May reach 140+knots (C5) in next 9-12 hours. Landfall in 18-22 hours.!
Damn
#Freddy
. Seems to be getting it going earlier than expected, eye developing and heat towers have formed. Not really supposed to intensify significantly until after 36 hours, wonder what this means for future track and intensity and it’s implications. Also if this sustains.
Category 5 Super Typhoon
#Mawar
at 175mph currently, and chugging along over the warm waters of the Western Pacific. A sharply outlined and round 20-25 mile wide eye and a round and symmetrical robust CDO, is a hallmark of an intense Category 5 TC, which Mawar has become.
The outflow does not get better than that.
#Mocha
a true beast, with an absolute buzzsaw structure as it has rapidly intensified into a Super Cyclone as it approaches
#Myanmar
where a likely storm surge disaster awaits. The jet outflow is better than modeled.
Guam radar down. Australia’s Bedout Island can handle being 20 foot underwater and 180mph wind gusts but the US NWS radar station can’t even handle the outer band…..
Image recorded in the eye of
#Yagi
at 04z on Sep 5th. At the time the storm was undergoing an eye-wall replacement cycle and had weakened from its first peak. The aircraft recorded a minimum pressure of 926mb, before the 2nd intensification phase.
Catastrophic Category 5
#Mocha
barreling towards the densely populated Myanmar/Bangladesh coastline set to deliver a massive impact to a historically vulnerable region with immense storm surge totals and extreme winds. A near worst case scenario, pray for these people.
#Mocha
is highly likely Category 5 system. Dvorak FTs have sustained at T7.0 for 6 hours and DTs are near 7.5, a recent AMSU pass indicates 156knots. Likely overdone, but all data is indicative of 140+knots system. Regardless of landfall intensity, this is catastrophic situation
HWRF has gone crazier than Mangkhut. This glitched run shows a 140kt/917mb Cat 5 near the coast of Canada. Yes you read that right. All that needs to be said. When models go rouge...... This goes in the hall of fame with 892 Long Island Irma, 868 Barry and 777 Mangkhut.
#Beryl
might be making an attempt at re-intensification. Shear lowering a little, while poleward outflow improving has helped as well. Microwave shows a nearly closed eyewall. Shear is still present, but not as detrimental as yesterday. Long term West Gulf Coast threat.
Philippine Sea effect is truly unreal. Even when the water temperature is depleted due to it being April, the Philippine Sea effect still strike.
#90W
is developing a tightly wrapped curved band feature. Models already not handling this well. First of the season,
#Sanvu
incoming.
#Yagi
is primed and ready for a significant intensification phase. Upper level conditions are the best I’ve ever seen in the South China Sea, and waters are well above average. A solid eye-wall is developing on microwave. A very dangerous typhoon likely for Hainan.
#Bolaven
has continued to crank, and is now at WMG+CMG (DT 7.5). Now it’s likely not at that intensity yet. But we could see a solid Category 5 storm over the next few hours if this intensification keeps up. The eye is now +16C with a CDO nearly -80C. Pressure is likely tanking.
The image released by the HKO aircraft mission. The aircraft finds a major typhoon with double eye-wall structure, typical of a strong tropical cyclone.
#Saola
has thankfully began to weaken due to interaction with land, but “inside the eye” photos are always very cool.
STY
#Mawar
has began a slow weakening trend due eyewall replacement cycle. Still a Cat 5 and looking quite impressive despite the EWRC, the eye remains warm and CDO well organized. More weakening is likely before completion, but re-strengthening is likely after with a larger eye.
@DougWahl1
No because some trump supporter will take offense and wanna do something to my car. Plus, I’m not in a cult, so I don’t idolize and base my life off one person
These images of
#Haikui
are only around 4 hours apart. The first image shows a well put together storm with a robust eye-wall of a solid Cat 3 just before it’s landfall in
#Taiwan
. The 2nd image shows an absolutely shredded system, after interaction with 10,000+ foot mountains.
#Ilsa
remains well organized for a TC inland 80-90 miles. Eye feature and a strong eyewall and band somehow still remain. Probably down to a lower end C3 by now. Intense TC usually holds its own at first over flat land, but this is one of slowest on land weakening cases I’ve seen
#Yagi
has made its landfall in Hainan, China as a formidable Category 4 Typhoon. Buoy prior to landfall recorded an impressive low pressure of 916mb, and this was after satellite appearance had degraded a decent amount.
#Yagi
likely peaked near 900mb based on this data. INSANE!!
Large Category 4 Cyclone
#Djoungou
racing across the Southeast Indian Ocean. The system intensified rapidly under a jet interaction, which isn’t uncommon for TCs at 20-30° latitude, and it can provide extreme difference to offset other negative factors. Thankfully, no land threat
#Mawar
now up to 135 knots, a Super Typhoon again. Likely to become a Cat 5 in the coming hours as the structure continues to improve. If all goes well, we can see a peak of 150-155+knots in the next 24 hours before another (likely) EWRC. 60-72 hours in favorable conditions.
@joncoopertweets
Me in 2020 vs 2024. What I’m saying is, I used to Support Trump and after he attempted to overthrow the government I have been 100% against him since, and that’s why I’d wear a Harris hat now.
#Dora
continues to explore. What a storm. A very impressive satellite appearance, with a stadium effect eye and a symmetrical CDO. No question that recon would find above 115knots.
@PaulHook_em
@elonmusk
Agree. Opinions are what social media is about. I just choose not to have kids in my life. I’m 25 and have already made this decision
#Fiona
not gaining latitude and tracking more west than expected is significant. It increases the risk of flooding landslides in the Dominican Republic due to inflow band causing convection enhancement over high altitude. Land interaction will be huge for future intensity.
Impressive, but little known fact: with
#Mawar
being a Cat 5 officially, it means that every West Pacific typhoon season since 1978, except one (2017) feature atleast one Category 5 Typhoon. Thats part of the greatness that is the KING WPAC. Much more Cat 5s to come this year
Yeah I’m not a meteorologist, I’m just some random 24 year old who likes spinny weather systems but something strongly tells me with a extremely high degree of confidence that’s not a remnant low.
Exactly 1 year ago today, my life and plenty of lives across SWFL ranging from Cape Coral to Naples were changed. When 130kt Ian came ashore in Cayo Costa, bringing the highest surge seen in the area in decades. I was homeless for 3 months, but have built back better.
#SWFLstrong
#Fabien
has rapidly intensified and now has a classic satellite structure of a major hurricane. With a round clear well defined eye, a healthy CDO, and prominent banding features. More intensification is possible, but quite the treat for a post season storm with no land impacts!
HAVING MOVED OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN ABOUT
EIGHT HOURS AGO, TYPHOON (TY) 12W (YAGI) HAS STEADILY REORGANIZED
AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS AN HISTORICAL LANDFALL
IN NORTHERN VIETNAM.
JTWC even using the wording HISTORICAL LANDFALL.
2024 in the tropics.
Strange to say the least….
Starts off with one of the worst SHEM seasons ever post Jan 1st…..
A Cat 5 in the Atlantic in early July
A storm that deepened 70mb in 12 hours to sub 900mb without a visible eye
Latest EPAC start on record
Cat 1 in
This also should push
@WMO
to declare the Med Sea as an official basin. It has been observed for 40+ years subtropical and tropical systems developing in this region. But no official organized meteorological service to forecast them. It is time to change that.
It is absolutely heartbreaking to know that 6,000+ people are dead from storm
#Daniel
in Libya. This is the deadliest tropical system since STY
#Haiyan
in 2013, which was a 170knot (at-least). Crazy how just a regular tropical storm can be as deadly as one of the strongest ever.
Cat 5 likely imminent with an even more round CDO, and top tier level microwave. Without signs of an EWRC in the next couple hours, a run up to 150+knots cannot be ruled out. Both environmental, oceanic and thermodynamic conditions support up to 155knots.
#Beryl
reminds me of Noru 2022. Resistant to shear, then didn’t weaken as much as expected overland and held a tight core, it then underwent explosive deepening upon splashdown, kicking any shear in the rear, with robust outflow and high TCHP. Looks like Beryl has all the same….
Got the patch in the mail and certificate of authenticity from hurricane hunter mission that flew into Lee.
@FlynonymousWX
thanks for this. Means a lot to be recognized by the elite members of the community. Hopefully one day I will be able to join a flight.
Currently living in my garage. House is unable to be lived in. Heard from friend in Charlotte Harbor, good news is she’s okay and know I can confirm everyone I know made it out alive. Hoping for FEMA assistance ASAP. Said 7-10 days but we need it NOW. Hard to get food, water, etc
#Mocha
is over-performing so far, and has a solid eye taking shape which is currently obscured on IR imagery due to intense VHTs. The system is now a hurricane (and probably stronger than 65knots). A peak of atleast 120knots is forecasted before SLAMMING into Myanmar in 60 hours.
Potentially catastrophic Super Typhoon
#Yagi
intensifying to the East of Hainan island only 10 hours from its landfall. The storm is very near (maybe even at Category 5 by now). EWRC is imminent again however, so it may stop the intensification prior to landfall.
#Freddy
has downed to a TD, which means it’s ACE total has stopped. With Freddy heading far inland and shear over channel when it does re-emerge, 87.01 will likely be Freddy’s final ACE level given redevelopment looks unlikely. Undisputed place in the history books.
#Legendary
.
#Anggrek
is intensifying over the far open southeast Indian Ocean. It is developing an Annular like appearance with wrapping deep convection and an improving/clearing eye. It is likely to become a major cyclone, while staying away from land racking up the ACE units.
This is crazy.
#Freddy
in 2009 formed at a similar time, similar area and was on similar track and never became above TS and died out in the AUSR-SWIO crossover area (historically brutal for TCs similar to E. CAR). Freddy 2023 is doing what 2009 couldn’t. This story is so wild
#Ilsa
appears to now be at its best attempt yet of clearing its small eye. If this eye is able to warm and clear before landfall, Dvorak estimates will raise considerably and the intensity will rise further before landfall. Could be knocking on doorstep of a C5 if all goes well.
#Shanshan
is setting up to become a strong and impactful Typhoon for mainland Japan in about 4 days. It is now officially a Typhoon by the JTWC, the 5th of 2024, and the 3rd in the last 2 weeks. Although some shear is present now, it is expected to be replaced with a robust jet
The Western Pacific is also at record levels when it comes to Ocean Heat Content (OHC). La Niña forces all the warmth in the Pacific further West, into the WPAC. Minus the northern extent due to it being July, this year is warmer than even peak 2010 OHC levels, which produced a
#Yagi
is now forecast by JTWC to STRENGTHEN to a Cat 4 prior to its Vietnam landfall near
#Haiphong
. This would be a catastrophic scenario for Haiphong Vietnam. But with the outer eye-wall becoming more organized with little remaining of the inner, and warm 32C SSTs and light
Not what I would’ve expected to see on August 21st in a La Niña to see both Pacific basins both active and Atlantic totally quiet. I don’t doubt September will ramp up, but I am SLIGHTLY beginning to question some of these seasonal predictions, especially Named Storm wise.
The current structure of
#Yagi
is very classic of RI. With a developing, well organized CDO and a clearing eye on visible with a strong banding feature, which is an indication of high moisture inflow supply, high ocean heat content and high thermodynamic potential. Besides an
#Freddy
has started to developed a curved banding feature in the face of strong vertical wind shear. Conditions haven’t even improved yet. This leans credibility towards models that show re intensification prior to landfall.