The industry and developing countries are finally pushing back against the hypocrisy of being told you can’t develop your economy from the same people outbidding the world for LNG.
Guyana is an amazing project and lower carbon than some of the UK North Sea…
For those that didn’t hear it. A typical transformer handles 37.5 kw, or around 20 homes.
Heat pumps consumer 3-4 kw, EV chargers 4-19 kw.
So at the low-end that transformer went from servicing 20 homes to just 5, potentially only 2-3.
More on The Call
Funny the headline reads “French Grid Issues Are Causing Power Prices to Soar in Europe” rather than Intermittent Renewables Force Europe to Rely on French Power Exports
I tend to sound like a broken record on low rates being at the epicenter of many of our current issues. My view is that low rates subsidize capital at the expense of labor, so it enable offshoring, it depresses wage growth vs. capital.
🚨"I think the Fed has done arguably more damage in the last 20-25 years than it has done good," said
@VivekGRamaswamy
during Day 2 of the Hedgeye Investing Summit.
@KeithMcCullough
and Ramaswamy dove into their outlook for the American economy, and ideas for improvement.
Click
some news - yesterday was my last day at Hedgeye. It's been amazing run, 7+years, but time for a break and change. Can't thank
@KeithMcCullough
and everyone
@Hedgeye
enough for all that they've done for me (1/4)
New estimates for energy transition spending peg it at $1,000/person a year for the next 26 years to get to Net Zero.
It’s bad enough that it’s unaffordable, the more idiosyncratic problem is that these technologies won’t actually achieve a sustainable future.
Over the past 10 years, solar runs at 12% utilization factor. To replace 1 GW of nuclear capacity (96% in the US) you'd need 8x the solar capacity. And you have to factor storage and back-up costs, since solar runs at capacity midday in the summer, but less so winter/nights.
🪫Wall Street Missed the Mark Pushing Solar & Hydrogen Stocks
Our new
@HedgeyeENERGY
sector analyst Fernando Valle highlighted concerns with hydrogen and solar power this morning – two alternative energy sources that have been propped up as long-term solutions.
“Exxon just
Big repercussions here for biofuels, refiners and oil majors. The EPA and other government agencies lose significant power and may need to retract on recent fuel policy decisions.
@HedgeyeIndstrls
and
@HedgeyeTechLaw
have been all over this.
@nntaleb
Then why did South Korea’s GDP rise in tandem with its energy use? Growth requires energy. There are no examples of countries that improve their GDP without consuming more energy at the same time. It’s not a delayed response.
Will coal power plant retirements continue in the US?
@mfwarder
weighs in on yesterday's Energy Show
@Hedgeye
.
Spoiler/trigger alert, you can't power AI/EVs/electrification without fossil fuels...
Thanks
@Hedgeye
nation for such a warm welcome on my first Hedgeye Live! I had a great time talking energy, learned a great deal from our team and Mrs. Energy and I had a great time at the bash.
Really happy to be here, I've been a part of
#hedgeyenation
for a few years and looking forward to engaging with many of you.
It's a great time to be in Energy and even better time to shake things up.
Hedgeye Hires Industry Veteran Fernando Valle to Lead Its Energy Research Platform
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
[Stamford, Conn., March 7, 2024] -- Hedgeye Risk Management, a premier independent financial research and media company, announced today the appointment of Fernando Valle,
$TSLA firing its whole supercharging team is another reason why we think $BP 2030 Aims are highly inflated. Expectations for Mobility returns to outpace oil & gas won’t happen. Everyone is running to install chargers and the bottlenecks are killing margins.
There are over 5 billion people (and growing) in the light blue line. We need more energy if emerging markets are to improve their standard of living. The average American consumes 46 barrels of oil equivalent a year. The average African, just over 2.
🌍 Energy consumption speaks volumes about global inequality:
The average American uses 46 barrels of oil equivalent yearly
Compare this to just over 10 barrels of oil equivalent yearly in Brazil and a mere 2 in Africa.
The key takeaway?
"There's a significant need for more
Got enough energy? We put way too much money into renewables that are crushing baseload capacity and our pockets and not enough in traditional energy. That's shifting, fast! Join us at @ 10 am today for our launch!
Long
#Inflation
yet?
Our Long Energy $XLE Asset Allocation just moved into the pole position on our TREND duration
@Hedgeye
TREND = 3 months or more and Fenando launches with his Bullish Sector
@HedgeyeENERGY
presentation today
TOMORROW!!!! Matt and I will go into our views for coal, natural gas and energy.
I’m pumped to chat with Matt. Always love our talks about energy/life and now get to do it live on
@Hedgeye
.
A reminder that we are hosting a call with
@mfwarder
on Tuesday to talk coal, energy demand and transition. For access hit up sales
@hedgeye
.con or go to
@Hedgeye
Nation - If you're in the NYC/CT area we'd love to have you join us for the inaugural Play for a Purpose Charity Hockey Game on June 22nd.
Register to play, sponsor or donate at
Tom with a masterclass on NPV vs. resource optimization and why $XOM bought $PXD.
This is also another sign that $XOM doesn’t see the end of oil any time soon.
So, now that a year has past and the $XOM $PXD deal has closed, it's a good time to review how FLOW understood the deal in real time, connected the capital markets to the subsurface, and predicted not just the deal, but also the premium. Importantly, this frame work drives out
Out this morning with our $XOM Elevator Pitch (h/t
@HedgeyeRetail
). A quick summary of why we think $XOM is best positioned for QUAD 2 and for the long-term changes coming to Energy and oil
WATCH | All 9 interviews from this week's 12th Hedgeye Investing Summit are now available to watch free on-demand 🔥
"If you take your capital seriously (as I do),
@Hedgeye
@KeithMcCullough
"Investing Summit" conversations are a necessary view in balancing against the pablum of
The conclusions here were a bit wild:
- Why not nationalize energy? - Just go to Latin America and find out why that's a bad idea.
- Renewables returns are too low, the government needs to guarantee higher rates - That means you and I need to pay more, either tax or prices
NEW ODD LOTS:
How we got the modern electricity grid. And how nuclear got squeezed out.
@tracyalloway
and I talked to
@fredstaffordcs
and
@Matthuber78
about power market structure, and how "small is beautiful"-liberalism set back decarbonization
World Service PMIs, 15 of 17 countries are in expansionary territory and 13 of 17 countries are accelerated in March.
$SPY, $FXI, $EWJ, $EZU, $EWG, $INDA, $EWU, $EWQ, $EWZ, $EWI, $EWA, $EWP, $EWL, $EWT, $EWD, $EIRL
For anyone interested in Energy Pro
@hedgeye
is still doing the old price for new Energy subscribers. Reach out to the team - sales
@hedgeye
.com or link below:
Happy Friday
@hedgeye
nation!
Brent oil is giving back its gains after last night’s attack on Iran. Seems like there may be some deescalation ahead of Passover as it was said on
@HedgeyeDC
call yesterday.
Wishing everyone a safe and healthy weekend.
Everyone can now see that renewable diesel margins were highly inflated and only holding together by a combo of record diesel prices and subsidies. The shoe will really drop in 2025.
@HedgeyeIndstrls
and I discussed that on Thursday and how it will play out.
This
@Hedgeye
LIVE Conference is the must-be-there. I am bring with me 2 Mystery Guests. …ok ok, one is Max T.
…ohh but the other is a TOTAL surprise.
I will be in full $PINK.
$VLO out with a decent 7% EBITDA beat vs. consensus. Healthy refining margins, though as expected a lot lower than last year. Interestingly and unsurprisingly, Renewable Diesel did less in EBIT with a lot more volume.
So despite consensus taking 2Q EBITDA down 27%, $VLO still missed by +6% ok EBITDA. If only someone had warned that refining earnings were inflated.
@Hedgeye
$XOM out with earnings considerations for 1Q24. Subscribers have the breakdown in their inbox this AM.
Some read through for $VLO, $MPC and other refiners, too.
A lot of questions yesterday
@Hedgeye
Live on nuclear, AI and power needs. Full stop, we need more power generation. We have the natural gas for it, at least as of now, but we need to ease restrictions on pipeline and infrastructure.
Pretty much in-line with what we said on The Call. We don’t see quotas changing any time soon.
As
@Amena__Bakr
notes in a separate tweet, UAE, gets a baseline increase, so small crude supply addition.
reading through the most recent $COG investor presentation ... the IR team there is on point. one of the best E&P decks I've ever gone through - the right and right amount of info
we added short $TUSK to our Best Ideas list on 3/15. Hosting call today. We think that they are gouging FEMA (US taxpayers) on its Puerto Rico contract. Absurd amount of profit. Also concerned w relationship w/ CEO's son's company, T&E Flow Services.
Back in 2022 I wrote about how LatAm companies operate in a Goldilocks regime for oil/USD. We are not in that zone now, so it’s not surprising to see $PBR where it is, firing a CEO due to political interference and
@KeithMcCullough
shorting $EWZ
We’ve long believed LatAm NOCs have a Goldilocks oil price. It used to be around $80/b Brent, may have risen slightly with the commodity inflation backdrop, but it’s still there. 🧵
Why Inflation Will Remain Higher For Longer 📈
This morning on The Call @ Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner
@HedgeyeFIG
and CEO Keith McCullough
@KeithMcCullough
dug into our call on inflation remaining higher for longer, and the outlook this gives investors on rate cut
"1 GW - that's the size of a meaningful nuclear power plant, only going towards training a model.
Over the last few years, there was this issue of GPU production. Now I think that's getting less.
But I actually think before we hit that, you're gonna run into energy constraints.
Well. There you have it!
@HoweGeneration
@HedgeyeDC
& I will be on at 1pm ET
@Hedgeye
tomorrow to review what this all means in the context of The Fourth Turning and electioneering. Looking forward to all of you joining us. Subscription required.
THE MACRO SHOW | Live @ 9:00am ET 🚨
Today's hosts:
@HedgeyeDJ
@HedgeyeENERGY
Tune in for the best market research show LIVE every day before the market opens.
Want access? Click here: