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Hari P. Krishnan Profile
Hari P. Krishnan

@HariPKrishnan2

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277
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Money manager & author of The Second Leg Down=adaptive hedging, Market Tremors=positioning risk, Tales from the Engine Room (on the way), not investment advice.

Duxbury MA (+ NYC & London)
Joined January 2021
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
The mighty @jam_croissant joined me to discuss options flows, feedback loops, positioning models, liquidity and a great deal more on Top Traders Unplugged. I hope you enjoy it. Thanks!
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
not too long before release now ... thanks for your interest.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Please find the results of my interview with the options flow master @bennpeifert for Top Traders Unplugged below. Thanks Benn! 06 Volatility Series: Finding True Value in the World of Volatility ft. Benn Eifert — January 5th, 2021 - Top Traders Unplugged
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
I thought it might be nice to give a very concise summary of takeaways from my "Market Tremors" book (co-authored with @AshBennington ). Please ping me with any questions and/or comments ... thx.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Hi, I have agreed to host a semi-regular podcast covering macro, volatility, risk and possibly beyond, any suggestions? I am more than willing to read outside of my comfort zone if something looks compelling. Thanks #fintwit :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 months
I am pleasantly surprised to see that The Second Leg Down is at least momentarily ranked #1 in the Banking section on Amazon, which piles the pressure on for the next book... Thanks.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
I recently interviewed eminent physicist and expert practitioner Jean-Philippe Bouchaud for Top Traders Unplugged. For those who like their finance with a serving of econophysics, this will hopefully be a treat.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
geeky note: if you take a log normal process, i.e. return = drift * (time step) + vol * sqrt(time step) * (random draw) & adjust the drift based on dealer demand for deltas, proportional to -(open interest)*(dealer gamma), you get fat tails even in a constant vol setup. amazing.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
01 Volatility Series ft. Hari Krishnan — October 27th, 2021 - Top Traders Unplugged may be of interest, given the recent release of Market Tremors. Thanks to @JasonMutiny and @TopTradersLive :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
the genius of @SqueezeMetrics : they were the first to incorporate market prices and POSITIONING risk into a single indicator and release to the general public. the VIX calculation, completely indifferent to (>0) open interest, doesn't quite manage that. 🍺
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Quiet time at my mum's house in Bengaluru, India ... (note that I haven't started reading yet!)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
1 year
I would argue that the best way to hedge against the disruptive forces of AI (e.g. on the labor force) is to gain expertise and exposure to physical commodities on the long side. We can't do without those, no matter what the future holds. I am happy to discuss further on request.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
10 months
I was recently back on the air, with the consistently excellent @JackFarley96 , to discuss "paper farming", its surprising connection with hedging, and a potpourri of other topics. Thanks 👍
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
I am delighted (= relieved) to say that Market Tremors is now available in eBook format at Thanks very much, Hari
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Didn't Victor Niederhoffer say something about, after an eventful trading day (no matter the direction of your P&L), digging out your best headphones and listening to the heaviest music you can think of? I couldn't agree more ... Trade well & be safe out there.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
8 months
Here's a new preprint that applies some of my Second Leg Down and market positioning ideas to commodity markets. Unfortunately I am not distributing it widely, but DMs are welcome. Thanks as ever.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
2/ Whereas macro involves formulating a view & structuring a position around that view, hedging should *not* involve a strong view: it largely reduces to the deployment of a "bag of tricks" to defend against uncertainty in the most convex, yet cost effective way possible.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Here's a simple chart that tracks the 1 year trailing correlation of daily E-mini returns and volume. Large down days have always tended to have higher volume, but the correlation is more negative now than any recent time other than Feb 2020 and Feb 2018. Warning shot or noise?
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
I recently interviewed David Dredge, one of the most thoughtful practitioners in the long vol/convexity space, for Top Traders Unplugged. Please see below 👇.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
A new interview with writer David Orrell takes the volatility series further in a complex systems direction, before we slingshot back with @jam_croissant to the land of volatility. I enjoyed this freewheeling discussion greatly.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
1/ I have been watching #fintwit #volatility Twitter quite closely recently, possibly too closely for my equanimity ... However, given recent market moves, I thought I should make an important point.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
9 months
Hi Fintwit, I need a bit of advice. I'm finishing up a white paper on commodities that is a bit lengthier but similar in spirit to the legendary @SqueezeMetrics articles. Can anyone suggest the best avenue for publishing it? I'm not really looking for an academic journal. 👍
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@therobotjames @elephant_kek step 1, staring at stuff, is incredibly powerful.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
1/ Hedging concept: THE CONVERTER (from Market Tremors) The case studies we have presented in this book fall directly into the “Grey Swan” category. These are events that do not occur very often and cannot be timed exactly, but are the inevitable outcome of excess leverage ...
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Random thought of the day: if futures on Fed assets existed, what would the term structure look like? Thanks.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
I recently wrote an article summarizing Market Tremors for Wilmott magazine. Please follow the link for more details, or ping me with direct questions. Many thanks.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
While this is by no means original, I thought it might be worth explaining how to incorporate QE into an equity valuation framework. This may be timely as the Fed divests assets such as corporate bonds.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@jam_croissant @JasonMutiny @KrisAbdelmessih I, for one, would be keen to hear more about mkt maker conflicts of interest from you Cem! Thanks
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
1 year
Dublin mug shot... the magnificent long library room at TCD
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
For those of you who have access to @RealVision Pro, I will be on the air today at 2 pm EST for a Q&A about Market Tremors hosted by @AshBennington . Thanks!
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
St. Petersburg authors dominating my February reading schedule, the first book speaks for itself & enjoying the authentic voice of @agurevich23 greatly!
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
The Top Traders Unplugged volatility series has officially gone macro, hours before a crucial Fed announcement... Please follow the link for my recent wide ranging interview with hedge fund manager and author @agurevich23 Thanks! Hari
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@VitruviusCurve Excellent points. That is exactly why ML + long vol can be a powerful combination. ML to uncover fine structure in a large assembly of "average" returns & long vol to cover regime breaks and extreme outcomes.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
This level of driving skill along a South Indian highway astounds me.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
166 Systematic Investor Series ft. Hari Krishnan – November 15th, 2021 - Top Traders Unplugged this one is hot off the press and hopefully useful to allocators who want to blend trend and long vol across market regimes. thanks.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
A cheery, beery night @ the @ludlowhotelnyc to celebrate @MarketTremors with crisis predictor Peter Tran to the left & @AshBennington in the middle. Thanks Real Vision & hopefully everyone appreciates I was flashing a signal of respect at the two of them :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
Private equity funds have a marketing edge for 2 reasons. 1. No mark to market + capture of liquidity premium. 2. (novel) ensemble averages to calculate risk & return, given the absence of a reliable time series for a given fund. 2. is a flawed assumption. @ole_b_peters
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@CycleWacher @ThoughtBow @jam_croissant basic approach to hedging: ivol low, value buyer of vol, ivol high, identify gamma structures that are not too vega sensitive
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
5 months
Two amigos, new ideas in motion :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 months
1/ A geeky thread, which has strong applications that I will disclose later. Given a stack of images that we know to be trees (ground truth), modern algorithms can find trees in new images. But is the same true of financial time series?
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@AgustinLebron3 1. Only trade if you have an edge that you can articulate in some way, else do nothing. 2. Minimize regret, however you define it.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
1 year
when reality seems like a painting, rather than the other way around. quelle surprise! Budapest view from the hotel.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Dear Publisher, when is Market Tremors coming out? When will Ash & I be ready to peddle it shamelessly?
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@RealVision @AshBennington thanks to @Ksidiii @FadingRallies @spotgamma for inspiring me to go on air after a long lapse ... :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@QuantVol No no no no, at a minimum, we can learn that positive median outcomes push extreme ones further along the left tail, especially in the current regime ... I understand your scepticism, but strongly believe that @nntaleb has a deeper understanding of this than most of us do ...
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
I am delighted to have interviewed the mighty @leadlagreport for Top Traders Unplugged. If you are interested in sequential asset class moves, risk indicators and the psychology of dealing with drawdowns, this may be for you. Thanks 👍
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
171 Systematic Investor Series ft. Hari Krishnan – December 20th, 2021 - Top Traders Unplugged here's a new podcast where we touch upon (no implementation details) various ways to reinterpret trend and counter-trend model development in an ML context.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
Random rates/complex systems/feedback question of the day ... How much would the Fed have to raise Fed Funds in the next year for the odds of a rate CUT in the following year to be > 50%? Whatever that might be, doesn't seem to be baked into the options market. Grazie.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
4/ My only point in this 🧵 was to suggest that investors shouldn't conflate hedging with all or nothing directional bets when staring in the coal face. Thanks.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
sans parole, and one reason I haven't been posting much recently :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
10 months
Here's a new podcast, again focused on "warehousing" depressed commodities, with the mighty Corey Hoffstein. Thanks as ever!
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Hi, I'll be in London for the next couple of weeks, with a possible detour to Germany/Switzerland. Please DM me if you would like to meet up & I will try to organize a low key pub evening. Kind regards, Hari
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@choffstein SCT has been managing strategies based on ML for a very long time. ML is good at dealing with "Mediocristan", finding repeatable patterns in a large quantity of data with the tails removed (Winsorized). Hedging covers unexpected volatility spikes/breakpoints. @VasantDhar
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
I recently appeared on Real Vision with @profplum99 and @AshBennington to discuss Market Tremors & hope you enjoy the back and forth discussion, thanks! Will "Zombified" Markets Lead to a Global Liquidity Crunch? | Real Vision
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
I recently appeared on Real Vision to frame the Fed's attempts to control inflation as a control problem that may not have *any* palatable solutions. Please see below. The Fed Has Chosen Its Horn | Real Vision
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 months
Though on holiday, I would be delighted to discuss Second Leg Down hedging tactics with interested qualified investors, please DM me if interested. 👍
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
1/ Here's are two interrelated surprising mathematical facts, indirectly related to Central Bank policy controls, in advance of the Fed announcement. Suppose you have a function f(t) that is smooth. Even if df/dt approaches 0 as t goes to infinity, f doesn't have to converge.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@profplum99 @AshBennington Thanks @profplum99 ... That means a lot, coming from you! Be well sir.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@NihilistTrader I don't disagree, but is your goal a. to help people or b. to create a barrier to entry. I would guess a. but a lot of quants seem to indulge in b.:-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Street view of the Boston Fed, as they furiously tackle inflation behind closed doors :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@RaoulGMI I can try. Econophysics: distributions have the fattest tails over short horizons, and become increasingly normal as the window increases. Practicality: you have short convexity in your book, and need to plug a gamma hole once vol has gone bid = buy high gamma/vega stuff.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@bennpeifert Great stuff. Please allow me to speculate further. Markets are behaving as the text books would predict (for once)! An exogenous shock (inflation print ex energy) pushes risky assets down, prices react in an orderly way, and network effects are muted given positioning!
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@AshBennington @edwardnh Ed Harrison ... Legend
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@dailydirtnap I did, & now I don't. Hope that helps sir.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
3/ Vol "arb" is another beast entirely, something I do not focus on & something that requires great discipline & attention to detail on the risk management front. It can be done, but requires the right PMs & investors.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@KrisAbdelmessih Semi-serious answer: my guess is that due diligence relies upon having a large enough network to cross-check everything (reputation, investment strategy and ops), while avoiding a herd mentality. Quantitative metrics are useful, but can easily be overdone. Not sure about books.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@elephant_kek @Ksidiii @therobotjames I think an interesting book could be written, based on the following premise. All that's left of an ancient civilization is a series of price charts (commodities, lending costs etc.) How much of the history could we reconstruct?
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@leadlagreport and, perhaps most provocatively ...
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
5 months
@SinclairEuan Research requires optimism, managing positions requires scepticism and some detachment from the notion that you were the one who did the research...
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@PumpamentalsCAP @SinclairEuan @WifeyAlpha Sadly, there is some truth to this. The main reasons to write a proper practitioners finance book are 1a. intellectual satisfaction 1b. mandates and ... way down the list, book revenues
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@KrisAbdelmessih @therobotjames 5/ In practical terms, you might want to use options as a contrarian play on regime while emphasizing the stuff that is working well. Very roughly speaking, direct exposure to the dominant regime with a hedge against a break.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@OlympusQuant @elite_investor @volmagorov @nope_its_lily @bennpeifert @jordanwrong1 @VolQuant @VolatilityWiz @SinclairEuan Black-Scholes, to me is a transformation device ... a mapping of options prices across strikes & maturities onto normalized volatilities ... giving traders a consistent language to think about fair value
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@bennpeifert While your comment definitely applies to me, not sure I agree with the strength of your statement. Short term CTAs (trading delta 1) are precisely in the business of trying to predict short term market direction.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@bennpeifert I'll get push back from libertarian friends, but so be it. Statistically, a disproportionate number of "insanity" crimes are committed by the 18 to 21 set. This must be stopped with tighter regulations for recent HS graduates + anyone who has been convicted of domestic violence.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@KrisAbdelmessih @therobotjames 1/ This is a good idea, and one I have direct experience with. I will fill you in once I have finished my ☕.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@darjohn25 A very simplified version of the idea is: if the expected return on what you normally like to do is low, so be it. Don't try to juice the trade to hit some arbitrary return target ... once the levee breaks, you can make it up in style.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
9 months
@KrisAbdelmessih 1. Funny I was just writing up a piece along these lines, with regard to corn futures options. We don't need to look at the options order book (i.e. to see if offers were lifted), block trades or make an assumption about who likes to hedge (producers or processors), or when.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@Ksidiii this reminds me of a problem in control theory, related to "bang bang" controls. IMO, it is unwise to monetize in one go ... better to take a small amount of profits fairly early (theta mitigation), but act increasingly patiently beyond.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
1/ Miles Davis's comment about Wayne Shorter when he was the main composer in the band is a great lesson for investors:
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Sadly my day in Zagreb is nearly complete, thanks to the extremely sharp team at Intercapital Hrvatska for inviting me!
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@SqueezeMetrics @emmainvest @SqueezeMetrics I would imagine that "within" a month & "in" a month have vastly different interpretations, given the horizon over which your methods are most effective
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Shawn Hackett recently mentioned that grain futures are partly a variance swap on the weather. High volatility boosts prices, as it restricts supply, somewhat independently of average rain and temperature levels ==> maybe we should model variability directly, rather than level?
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
9 months
@Ksidiii That's very interesting sir, as a rule of thumb, do you consider quarterly expirations more significant than non-quarterly monthlies? Grazie
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@bennpeifert @therobotjames @edge_slave @SinclairEuan @Ksidiii @skughered plain vanilla hedging, e.g. buying and rolling OTM 3 month SPX puts is certainly doable even net of retail execution costs, and not very different from what many pension consultants advise. however, it is just about the most expensive thing you can do.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@EconShiller @KrisAbdelmessih @darjohn25 @vixologist I would say that the curve is actually very flat, the scale of the y-axis exaggerates any irregularities
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@sajidnizami the only caveat i would issue is: are you making money in a sustainable way or simply picking up those fabled pennies in front of the bulldozer?
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Random thought of 2023 (ChatGPT inspired): I wonder whether the complexity, opaqueness and contradictions of the global financial system have been created so that a bot can never give a passable reproduction of them :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
3 years
@PumpamentalsCAP @SinclairEuan @WifeyAlpha we're not in the business of writing academic textbooks, and cajoling our professor friends to use them as a textbook, so we have to value the process intrinsically, or simply smile at prospects, based on the notion that our credibility is based on our work
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
1 year
@NoelConvex Without reading any of the documentation, I can't see how a 1 day VIX makes any sense: weighted average of volatilities will be distorted by low vega teenies, 1/strike^2*(option price) loads on ATM, given the super sharp decay in prices as a function of distance from ATM strike.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Sadly, the interest rate information hotline across the road has been rendered obsolete ...
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
@jnordvig low signal to noise ratio for models with standard (e.g. price + volume) inputs + even lower signal to noise ratio for a vast quantity of non-standard data inputs doesn't improve things much
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Any thoughts on the menu here :-)
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 months
Here's a new, high level description of the "virtual warehousing" concept for commodities, which offers a direct and liquid way to participate in a bull market with low carry costs. Thanks as ever.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@ChrisGeorgiadi2 @Ksidiii Good question Chris. UVXY is a note, whereas things like HYG are funds. UVXY is structurally like an unsecured bond. The issuer promises to deliver the reference index - fees but does not have to hold anything. It is in the flow desk's interest to hedge.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
4 years
@WayneHimelsein Very well said. Another thing I have learned is that the buzz of discovery can be damaging if your ego forces your new findings into your existing system/framework too quickly or in too much size.
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@HariPKrishnan2
Hari P. Krishnan
2 years
Here's a recent interview, featuring author and Clocktower Group Chief Strategist Marko Papic, for Top Traders Unplugged. I highly recommend his book Geopolitical Alpha, as a means of identifying out of consensus trades in global markets. Many thanks.
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