Gavekal @Gavekal Twitter profile

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Gavekal

3 years

Want to read daily commentary on #GlobalMacro & #ChinaMacro #EconomicsResearch from one of the world's leading independent providers? Or advice on #AssetAllocation ? Sign up for a 1-month free trial to @Gavekal Research at #InvestmentResearch

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The US credit crunch has probably begun. The debacles of SVB and Signature Bank have made commercial banks cautious, as evidenced by the loan availability component of the NFIB small business survey falling sharply. This means businesses are having a tougher time getting a loan.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Gavekal's bottom-up analysis of China’s top 100 cities by GDP finds that all but 13 have imposed some form of quarantine restriction, and the intensity is increasing. We classified these cities from no restrictions (level 0) to full lockdown (level 4).

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

3 months

China’s economy may be struggling to grow, but its electricity industry is not. Power consumption rose by 6.7% in 2023, marking the fourth straight year that electricity use grew faster than GDP. And China is well on its way to becoming the most electrified economy in the world.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

10 months

In recent weeks, the media have been full of stories about an impending financial crisis in China. Amid all the hyperbole, @gave_vincent wonders why China’s financial markets don’t seem to be signaling fresh trouble, why Chinese households continue to consume, and why commodities

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

5 months

China’s customs authority reported imports of mineral fuels from Malaysia worth US$4bn in December, more than 10 times what Malaysia’s statistics office says it exported to China. Trade statistics often fail to match, but a discrepancy this big suggests something is seriously

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

When Constantinople fell to the Ottomans in 1453, Western European powers were locked out of trading routes in the Eastern Mediterranean. If Europeans wanted spices or silk, they would have to pay whatever price the Ottomans demanded. Unless, of course, another route could be

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

Brazil has one of the highest public debt burdens among emerging markets. A new fiscal framework passed earlier this year was praised for prioritizing debt stabilization while linking spending increases to revenue growth.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

As the Federal Reserve tapers off its asset purchases, commercial banks are stepping up their own credit creation.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Long-duration eurozone government bonds have suffered enormous price drops with the European Central Bank's interest rate hikes. An index of bonds with maturities over 20 years has fallen around -47% since December 2020. #chart

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

Europe has become China’s largest trade partner in electric cars and batteries. In 2022, the share of made-in-China EVs sold in Europe rose to 16%, from about 11% in 2021. The Chinese-brand share of the European EV market is expected to triple, to around 15%, by 2030.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

China’s property developers are halting work on a growing number of home construction projects, as indicated by the gap between growth in the pipeline of new projects and current construction activity, now at its widest in a decade.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

9 months

In the last two months, US treasury bonds have suffered another steep sell-off, with 10-year yields rising to their highest since 2007. In this interview, Louis Gave explores why the market is seeing another down-leg now, examines the implications and asks where, with major

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

Vietnam is one of the big winners of global derisking, perfectly positioned to gain from the US-China rivalry as supply chains reshuffle away from China. Everything is in place to match China’s double-digit growth of 10-15 years ago, but real growth is slower by half.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 month

Property accounts for a majority of the average urban household's wealth in China. The ongoing property crisis is therefore a major drag on household balance sheets.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

India's economic growth is slower than China's at a comparative stage in its development, dashing hopes that it will serve as an equally strong driver of global activity. Structural constraints suggest the upper bound is likely 6-7% real GDP growth over the next five years.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Prices of commodities highly exposed to the Chinese property market, such as steel and iron ore, have sold off over the past month, even as commodities with more diversified end uses, like copper, have remained steady. #chart #macro #China

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

Amid the sharpest interest rate rises in a generation, can households in developed economies withstand the shock? The concern is particularly acute in Australia where households' debt service ratio—mostly through variable-rate mortgages—has risen to 17% of income.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Since the invasion of Ukraine, German natural gas prices have doubled to €166/MWh, equivalent to an oil price of US$307/bbl. With flows of Russian gas to Europe already down 45% from late 2019 before the war, there are fears of a sudden stop in the flow of Russian gas.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Today, the rapid acceleration of inflation has sent the Misery Index to its highest level since at least the global financial crisis, reflecting the rising cost of living across the Western world. What's more, spikes in the index usually coincide with recessions. #chartoftheweek

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

China’s Covid cases are now surging and approaching the peak hit during a nationwide wave of lockdowns in April.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The yield on a two-year US treasury note has dropped below the federal funds target rate. This suggests the bond market sees more downside than upside for policy rates over the next two years, which in turn suggests a bet on recession.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

With inflation reaccelerating in the US, energy prices rising and escalating conflict in the Middle East, 2024 is beginning to feel uncomfortably reminiscent of the early 1970s. In yesterday's webinar, Gavekal’s founding partners— @gave_vincent , Charles Gave and Anatole

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

A boom in auto exports through the pandemic has catapulted China up through the ranks and ahead of export powerhouses like Germany and South Korea.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Earlier this week we published a report with a chart showing the drawdown in total market capitalization of US equity and fixed income. A data update introduced an error in that chart. This is the correct figure. We apologize for the error.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

China’s property developers are finally receiving more financing, after a government crackdown starved them of funding for much of the past two years.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

The global electronics cycle appears to be bottoming out, as indicated by the stabilization in electronics exports from semiconductor manufacturing powerhouses Taiwan and South Korea.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

25 days

US employment data will be released Friday, June 7. Some leading indicators suggest strength in the labor market, but not all. Most worrying, small business owners are reporting decreased hiring plans.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

After a steady upward march in the noughties, India’s share of global goods exports has stagnated at under 2% over the past decade. By contrast, India’s share of global services exports has risen consistently over the same period to just under 4.5%.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

As of Wednesday, Chinese stocks made up 24.7% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index by capitalization, down from 40% three years ago and about the same as late 2015 after the devaluation of the renminbi that August.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

As firms lose access to credit, more unprofitable businesses will likely be forced into bankruptcy. Mass layoffs and higher unemployment rates would follow, raising the risk of recession. Investors should maintain a risk-off approach to asset allocation in the US.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

3 years

Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO and co-founder of Gavekal Research, sees a dramatic paradigm shift playing out in the world economy. In this in-depth conversation, he explains how investors should position themselves for the future.

Louis Gave: «Inflation Will Come Back With a Vengeance» | The Market

Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO and co-founder of Gavekal Research, sees a dramatic paradigm shift playing out in the world economy. In this in-depth conversation, he explains how investors should position...

themarket.ch

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

Vietnam is urging banks to push out more credit to boost growth and attract investment as companies seek to diversify supply chains outside China. The worry is that a credit crunch concentrated in the graft-riddled real estate sector could ripple through the rest of the economy.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

After Silicon Valley Bank failed, US depositors started to panic, abruptly pulling their deposits from smaller banks. However, looking at the bigger picture, deposits have been leaving large banks for the past year. #chartoftheweek

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The surge in Chinese households’ cash holdings has captured the attention of global markets: bank deposits increased by RMB8trn more in 2022 than in 2021. Where will this cash go?

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

6 months

Global investors have over the past two months poured money into emerging markets, while pulling money out of China.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Coming out of the pandemic, prices of various commodities had mostly been moving in lockstep with each other. But in recent weeks, there has been a marked divergence.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

As of 16 July, European Union natural gas storage facilities were 82% full, very close to the highest fill level on record for the time of year. At this rate, the EU will easily meet Brussels’ target of 90% full by November.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

28 days

China has risen to become a crucial growth engine for other emerging markets, helping to push EM-to-EM exports' share of overall EM exports to 50%. The concern is that a structural slowdown in China might hinder further EM integration. But it's worth looking closer at the data.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The recent bull run in the S&P 500 has helped to allay concerns of flagging US growth. But upon closer inspection, AI-driven plays led by tech darlings Nvidia, Microsoft and AMD have disproportionately driven the index up, while the rest of the pack has lagged behind.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

India has recently made headlines as it tops China to become the world’s most populous country. But the continent of Africa also deserves attention, as it has already overtaken both giants individually, and by 2060 will surpass China and India combined.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

This time is different for China’s property market. After the first wave of lockdowns in 2020, real-estate sales and traffic congestion (a proxy for mobility) both returned to normal around the same time. Now, traffic has rebounded but property sales are still in a slump.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

China's outbound tourism has been slow to recover, partly due to limited flights and backlogs as people renewed travel documents. It's been easier for Chinese nationals to go to Macau and Hong Kong, which can serve as bellwethers for travel from China to the rest of Asia. #chart

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Food prices worldwide are down some -20% year-on-year according to the widely tracked UN FAO Food Price Index, to the relief of consumers. But there is one important outlier: the price of rice is up 16% YoY.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

4 months

US commercial real estate faces three problems: 1) Due to higher vacancy rates, the sector struggles with lower returns on invested capital. 2) Monetary tightening has raised the cost of capital. 3) The sector relies heavily on loan financing.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 month

Mexico’s favorable location and low labor costs should have put it in pole position to benefit from efforts to diversify supply chains away from China. But in absolute terms, the US$36bn in FDI Mexico attracted last year was on par with Vietnam, an economy one-third its size.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

@thedailyshot A data update introduced an error in this chart. This is the correct figure. We apologize for the error.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The eurozone’s working-age population is forecast to contract by about 1mn this year, and as much as 1.5mn a year by the end of the decade. Governments are trying to mitigate this by raising the retirement age and rolling out policies to encourage work. But this amounts to

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

US demand has slowed down, but this is not yet enough to affect overall price pressure, as indicated by the widening gap between the ISM price and new order components.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

5 months

The discrepancy—US$3.7bn in December or around 1.6mn bpd—is attributed to the transshipment of cargoes of Iranian and Russian petroleum in the Straits of Malacca. That’s one to two tankers of illicit oil every day.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

Japanese wages are rising at the fastest rate in more than 28 years, with base pay up 1.8% year-on-year. However, with total pay up 2.5% YoY, the pace of wage rises remains modest compared with other advanced economies.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

The English version is found here:

Louis Gave: «We will see a Boom in Emerging Markets»

Louis-Vincent Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talks about the most important investment topics in the new year and reveals where he would invest now.

themarket.ch

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The commonly used Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is narrowly focused on risk appetites in financial markets—indicated by such things as credit spreads and equity prices. But @willdenyer prefers a broader measure of financial conditions: the True Financial Conditions Index.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

US wages are now rising faster than consumer prices. This real wage increase is welcome news for workers, who benefit from a rise in their spending power. But it is mixed news for US businesses.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

We are in the early stages of a new era for financial markets and economic policy, says Anatole Kaletsky. Britain and the US need to prepare for a period of significantly higher inflation and interest rates, both in the short and long term. He joined London CIV's CIO, Aoifinn

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

US household debt grew strongly during the pandemic, but the growth rate is starting to slow. Why? Two reasons: (i) the cost of credit has gone up, and (ii) the availability of credit has gone down.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

Times are tough for European industry, which is having to adapt to climate-friendly regulations, higher energy costs and increased competition from Chinese producers. German industry has seen production fall by -2.3% this year; worst of the four biggest eurozone economies.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

3 months

The eurozone economy may finally be emerging from a year of economic stagnation which resulted from the energy crisis and the European Central Bank's monetary tightening. Business and consumer confidence indicators have outperformed expectations in recent months and are starting

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Individual US investors are extremely bearish, according to the AAII bull-bear spread. Yet they haven't reduced their equity allocation much. The gap between these two components in the AAII survey is at its widest since the survey began. Diamond hands forever? Maybe not.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

A sharp strengthening of the yen late Wednesday suggested the Bank of Japan was again intervening in the foreign exchange market after it spent an estimated US$35bn to counter yen weakness on Monday. In this video interview, Udith Sikand examines the currency market dynamics to

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

4 months

US households’ net worth is rebounding as asset prices—especially equities—push higher. Household wealth now amounts to about 8.3 years' worth of nominal consumption flows, significantly above the long-term trend.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Turkey’s net international reserves—gross reserves excluding reserves borrowed largely from the domestic banking system—have dropped below zero for the first time since 2003. Back then, Turkey was in a painful IMF adjustment program to help tide over balance-of-payments trouble.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Despite the -60% fall in natural gas prices over the last three months, Europe’s energy woes continue. Among the big problems facing Europeans this winter is nuclear power—or rather a shortage of it, as 40% of France’s nuclear generation capacity remains out of action.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

China’s property market is in its worst slump since the 1990s, but infrastructure investment and automaking have offset much of the hit to steel demand. #chartoftheweek

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

China’s government indexes of new-home prices in 70 major cities show that more cities reported rising prices than falling prices, for the first time in more than a year.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Likely, US commercial banks can't afford to raise deposit rates. With a total of US$19.2trn in deposits, an increase in rates to compete with the Fed funds rate of 4.88% would cost US$937bn annually. This wipes out banks' interest income, which was US$969bn annualized in 4Q22.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The monetary policy tightening undertaken over the last year in the eurozone to fight inflation is taking effect. Net new bank lending to non-financial corporations dried up in November last year, and net new bank lending to households has also fallen substantially.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

European central banks have unanimously joined the global chorus of banks singing from the hawkish hymn sheet as rapid inflation sweeps through their economies—at least rhetorically. A more heterogeneous picture emerges when you look at actual tightening so far.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

China’s high youth unemployment rate captured global headlines earlier this year, but less well-known is that the number of college graduates has surged in recent years.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

5 months

The composition of emerging market indexes has changed considerably over the past two decades. In the mid-1990s, the spillover effects from China’s voracious appetite for commodities was reflected in the substantial increase in the weight of sectors like energy and materials.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

It’s been a tough few years for China’s tech giants. Since Jack Ma’s criticism of China’s financial regulation led to the suspension of Ant Group’s IPO in November 2020 and a withering clampdown by the authorities, the sector’s market cap has been cut in half.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Officials in Beijing have inched away from their earlier pro-Russia statements and taken on a more neutral tone regarding the Ukraine conflict. Their calculation is simple: China's commercial ties with the West are much more important than those with Russia.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

While prices of wheat and maize have risen over the past two years, rice prices have stayed subdued, causing food price inflation—and with it overall inflation—in Asian emerging markets to diverge from EMs elsewhere. #chartoftheweek

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Last month, Charles Gave noted that the ability to buy Russian energy in its own currency has fundamentally changed India’s growth prospects (). This week, he goes further, arguing that the efforts of Russia, Iran, India and others to open new trade

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Who in Europe is taking natural gas demand seriously? One way to find the answer is to look at consumption data for the second quarter of 2022. The deeper cuts to consumption are seen in countries sharing a border with Russia, such as Finland and Latvia.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

South Korea and Japan are two economies often lumped together for their similarly poor demographic profiles. But in recent years, an important distinction between the two economies has been the trajectory of private sector debt.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

7 months

There's little doubt that Argentina’s long economic agony, repeated debt defaults and currency debasements have cast a long shadow over wider Latin American markets. Yet as far as foreign investors are concerned, the election of Javier Milei will likely break the cycle of

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

18 days

The European Union is expected to soon announce anti-subsidy tariffs on electric vehicles made in China. Exports of battery-powered passenger cars to the EU have grown nearly tenfold in just four years, reaching almost half a million in 2023.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

The US economy has slowed down but is not yet in a recession. However, plenty of leading indicators suggest that’s where it’s headed. Take for example the comparative performance of cyclical and defensive stocks.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

The problem is that even at its peak, nuclear power accounted for just a little over 10% of Japan's primary energy consumption, so the relief is likely to be marginal, at best.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Emerging markets are a disparate group, but few would have predicted that amid all the ructions in global markets this year Turkey would emerge as the best-performing equity market.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

The price of gold has shot up in US dollar terms in recent weeks, despite fading expectations of Federal Reserve easing as inflation figures surprise on the upside. An easier Fed ought to have benefited the gold price on the margin, but in its absence, what is the cause?

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 months

The surge in natural gas prices in 2022 caused production to plunge in Germany’s most energy-intensive manufacturing sectors such as chemicals, glass, paper and metal. However, the industrial recovery seems to be well on its way.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

4 months

The US House of Representatives’ approval of a bill aimed at forcing China’s ByteDance to divest TikTok has implications in areas far beyond the future of the wildly popular video-sharing platform. In this short video interview, @gave_vincent examines the potential consequences

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

3 months

Typically, emerging-market currencies are more sensitive to swings in global risk sentiment than their developed-market counterparts. But this time around, EM currencies have maintained their stability relative to their DM peers.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Treasury yields are on the rise, especially at the short end of the curve. Between hawkish guidance from the Fed, more debt issuance from the Treasury (now unrestrained by the debt ceiling), and still-strong labor market data, markets are pushing real and nominal yields higher.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

4 months

Louis Gave makes his case for better investing alternatives in international stocks, bonds and currencies than the US presently has to offer:

Globally Minded | National Review

David is joined by world-class economist Louis Gave, who makes his case for better investing alternatives in international stocks, bonds, and currencies than the U.S. presently has to offer.

www.nationalreview.com

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

9 months

The US debt service burden has risen along with interest rates. Will the Federal Reserve step in to “monetize" the debt? In a way it already has. Of US$5trn worth of treasuries held by the Fed, US$3.4trn has effectively been converted to short-term, interest-free liabilities.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

3 months

US tech firms are racing to build artificial intelligence data centers and develop new AI use cases. Are they overinvesting? Judging by the MSCI US IT index's total asset growth and capex-to-free-cash-flow ratio, the answer so far appears to be no.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

As of last Friday, a French government bond maturing in 2072 traded at 37 cents to the US dollar—a deeply distressed level. Surely France will still be around in 50 years?

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

In yesterday's webinar, Louis-Vincent Gave was joined by @VincentDeluard of @StoneX_Official to discuss what this new global macroeconomic environment means for investors: #webinar #video #globalmacro #assetallocation #investing

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

5 years

China's state firms collectively earn a return on equity of about 5.4%, a figure that is already low by global standards: the ROE of the S&P500 has been 12-15%. But the true profitability of Chinese SOEs should be even lower, since they receive substantial subsidies.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

11 months

Markets have rallied strongly since the US’s June inflation print came in below expectations, suggesting that the inflationary genie may be back in the bottle. Louis-Vincent Gave is unconvinced of such a benign outcome, and in this piece explores seven key arguments underlying

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

With nearly 90% of its energy requirements met via imports, Japan has been hit hard by the rise in global energy prices, with the pain compounded by the weakness of the Japanese yen.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Strict Covid controls and an uncompromising new national security regime have driven a reversal in Hong Kong’s net migration flows since 2019. The first six months of 2022 saw a net outflow of 95,000 people, compared with a net inflow of 50,000 in the first half of 2019.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

6 months

In this Gavekal webinar, senior partners Louis-Vincent Gave, Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky convened for a roundtable discussion addressing the big themes they see impacting the global economy in the coming year and therefore driving financial markets. Watch the full video

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

The US Senior Loan Officer Survey released this week showed that the US credit situation has gone from bad to ugly. In nearly all loan categories, banks are reporting tighter lending standards and softening demand for new loans.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

Now is not a good time to buy a car, according to a University of Michigan consumer survey of buying conditions. This follows rises in auto prices, gasoline prices and interest rates.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

8 months

Since the summer of 2020, the 10-year US treasury note has delivered a negative total return of -25%, with even bigger losses for holders of longer-dated treasury bonds. Such a vicious bear market in the financial world’s primary “risk-free” asset is affecting other markets, from

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

1 year

Eurozone nominal wage growth has accelerated in the past year, with financial compensation per employee rising 5% YoY in 4Q22. In 15 eurozone countries that have minimum wage legislation, the minimum wage rose a record 8.3% YoY as of 1Q23.

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Gavekal

@Gavekal

2 years

There's a time to make money and a time to lose as little as possible. Charles Gave suggests we have entered the latter phase, based on the 30-year energy cycle which is the main driver of the financial cycle. See what history suggests will happen next.

Klaus A. Wobbe on LinkedIn: The 30-Year Energy Cycle.

There is a time to make money and a time to lose as little as possible. Charles Gave of Gavekal Research suggests that we have entered the latter phase. He…

www.linkedin.com

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