Vincent Deluard @VincentDeluard Twitter profile

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Vincent Deluard

1 year

Offering free one-month trials of my @StoneX_Official reports! Sign up at One of the few original inflationistas Find my recent interviews & podcasts on @RealVision , @Blockworks_ and @TheMarketHuddle DMs open for any questions

The Convenient Recession (guest: Vincent Deluard) - Market. Huddle...

This week we have the pleasure of welcoming back Vincent Deluard from StoneX. We have a terrific discussion about why the economy might not be as bad as con...

www.youtube.com

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

Just bought a 52-week T-bill at 4% A year ago exactly, I refinanced my mortgage at 1.8% After inflating the value of my home beyond my wildest dreams, the Fed & US Treasury are now paying off my mortgage. Feeling super grateful, but how does any of this make sense??

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

Since 1980, the ratio of household net worth to the US median wage has increased by 370%. This is the single most important chart for finance, economics, and politics.

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@VincentDeluard

4 years

Fun fact of the day: There are now more ETFs than stocks listed on the NYSE and Nasdaq 😱😱 PS: I will update this tweet when there are more SPACs than stocks 😉

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@VincentDeluard

4 years

Friendly reminder that the FAANMG stocks are now worth $7 trillion, more than the financial, energy, industrial, and material sectors COMBINED.

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@VincentDeluard

18 days

We are going to need more doors

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@VincentDeluard

3 years

Nasdaq composite is off its ATH by just 3.2%, mostly because AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, NVDA and ADBE have held up. BUT 66% OF NASDAQ STOCKS ARE IN A BEAR MARKET 35% HAVE LOST MORE THAN 50% SINCE THEIR ATH Breadth is usually a leading indicator of trend. Watch out!

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

THE INFLATION MIRACLE WILL NOT LAST - a 🧵for smart people Inflation fell to 4.8% YoY in June and 0.2% MoM in June, 10 bp below expectations. Core CPI was also better than expected. Is this the end of the great inflation scare?

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

Inflation in Wage-Intensive Services Haircuts: 6.8% Restaurants: 8.5% Car repair: 11.8% Childcare: 5.3% Lawyers: 6.2% Laundry: 7.9% Maybe stabilizing but no deflation there. That is what Powell will focus on tomorrow

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

UGLY CHART OF THE DAY The top 1,000 US stocks are up 6.2% in 2023. All of these gains came from the 7 platform stocks: Apple, MSFT, Nvidia, Meta, AMAZN, Alphabet, and Tesla. The remainin 993 stocks had a small negative contribution. And the next 2,000 stocks are also down!

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@VincentDeluard

4 years

CRAZY STAT OF THE DAY (and maybe the month) Nasdaq 100 companies paid $20 bn in stock-based comp last quarter from earnings of $78 bn. 26% of earnings are siphoned by insiders versus 10% in 2010. --> Bubbles are always a transfer of wealth from the public to insiders.

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@VincentDeluard

9 months

A Good CPI Joke to End of this Brutal Week 👇👇 The Health Insurance component of the CPI is now below its 2016 level, after a 39% (!!) fall this past year. Did your insurance premium drop by a third this year? Do you pay less than you did in 2016? 🤡🤡

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 years

HYPER-GROWTH STOCKS, ARK, AND THE MAGA STOCKS - A thread (1/n) The Ark argument is that investors underestimate disruptors' exponential growth. And it is true that the market failed to appreciate the growth and margins of the MAGA stocks

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

4 years

Friendly reminder that the market cap of the FAANMG stocks now exceeds that of the 7 largest European countries COMBINED (the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Russia, and Poland)

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@VincentDeluard

8 months

Today was a prime example that THE CPI IS NOT INFLATION. All of the surprise in core (0% MoM vs 0.1% expected) came from the drop in the value of the imaginary rent which homeowners pay themselves in the BLS model. Owner's Equivalent Rent dropped to 0.4% from 0.6% MoM.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

You guys still don't get it, do you? Since the last sub-2% inflation print, three years ago (!): ➡️ Treasuries ETF took $290 bn 🤡🤡 ➡️ TIPS ETFs took in zero dollar 🤔🤔 ➡️Gold ETFs lost $20 bn 😰😰

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

The big "peak inflation" relief rally was caused by the fact that MoM CPI was flat in July versus a 1.3% rise in June But ALL THAT IT TELLS YOU IS THAT ENERGY PRICES DROPPED in July: the change in energy MoM inflation has explained 89% of the change in MoM CPI since 2002 🧵👇

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@VincentDeluard

8 months

Huge $31 billion in corporate income tax collections last week!! 👇👇 Probably due to CA late filings finally coming in. Corporate tax collections are now +4.5% for the year TGA balance rose by $78 bn in 3 weeks to almost a 2-year high. I have been bearish on Treasuries all

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

As the year draws to an end, I want to reflect on the fact that the real hedge against inflation, Powell, the global bear market, Putin, the USD wrecking ball was .... [wait for it] .... TURKISH STOCKS Up 73% in USD terms!!!!!

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

Be honest: does this look like inflation is going back to 2%? ..Or has inflation reset at structurally higher plateau of 4-5%? .... which is the only solution to sustain fiscal deficits of 6% of GDP! #greatreset

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@VincentDeluard

6 years

Crazy index stats: - the average US stock is in 115 indices. -stocks that are in more than 200 indices are 2.5 times more expensive than those in less than 75 indices Passive bubble, anyone? More in my latest @INTLFCStone report

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

QUICK INFLATION TAKE The most important indices are the prices of wage-intensive services: haircuts, childcare, dentists, lawyers With the exception of garages (crazy inflation), they all converge towards 6.5 - 7% YoY and 0.4%-0.5% MoM That is the true long-term inflation.

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

I had been telling clients to brace for a big upside surprise on the nonfarm payroll number, and today's report certainly delivered. Here are some important observations on the state of the labor market, productivity, and inflation from my August 2 report Short 🧵below 👇👇

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

Friendly reminder to all the bottom fishers that this is the end of the quarter when target date-funds and fixed allocation investors must rebalance into stocks Since 2016 stocks returned 80.6% p.a in the last week of quarters when they were down on the quarter Short 🧵

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

10 months

Guess what are the two largest weights in the S&P 500 VALUE Index? Microsoft, P/E of 33 Amazon, P/E of 92 Tell me again how indexing makes markets more efficient and does not favor megacap tech stocks 😂😂 What do you say, @profplum99 ?

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

FUN FACT OF THE DAY The US net* public debt-to-GDP ratio is now lower than it was pre-COVID. Spending increased by $2.5 trillion a year without raising taxes, and we still de-levered! Inflationary growth is the miracle remedy for debt traps. *Net of thed Fed's SOMA holdings

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

@CP52949521 Could I do better by buying something else which will likely appreciate more over the long-term? Probably. But do I want the headache? Nope. Firts rule of investing is to take every opportunity you have to earn money risk-free and worry-free.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

Unpopular Opinion: In the coming years, climate change will replace price stability as central banks' objective. Or at least the need to slow global warming will justify revising the inflation target higher.

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@VincentDeluard

11 months

THE TRAMPOLINE LANDING - a short thread 👇👇 The Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecasts growth of 4.1% this quarter. Why did growth accelerate when almost all economists forecasted a recession in H2 2023? (ht @OJRenick )

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 months

WHY THE FED WILL SPOOK MARKETS TOMORROW👇👇 The Fed has effectively 3 mandates: inflation, employment, and asset prices. For a few glorious months, it achieved all three. But the inflation mandate has become orthogonal with rising asset prices.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

25 days

WOW!! The Treasury collected $41 bn in withheld individual income employment taxes yesterday! There is an end-of-month effect, but even so, it is HIGH Collections for this category are up 4% in 2024, after the IRS increased brackets by 5.4%. ➡️ Don't sweat the soft-ish JOLTS

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

11 months

Big tech's profits are supposed to be recession-proof and they have more cash than God, but: ➡️ Buybacks by the big 5 (AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, ORCL & META) fell to $41 bn last quarter, from a peak of $70 bn in Q4 2021 ➡️Their revenues have grown less than GDP for 5 straight quarters

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

5 months

Today's hot CPI print confirmed my 3 main inflation messages ➡️Magical disinflation of 2023 owed to luck (base efffects, Chinese subsidies, and supply chains) ➡️Wages are stuck at a 4% plateau, feeding into sticky services inflation ➡️Shelter is not as disinflationary as

Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

5 months

Shelter should be disinflationary in 2024, right? The idea is that the CPI rents & OER lag actual prices by 12-16 months and should cool off as the impact of 2022 housing downturn passes through But which downturn? The Zillow rent Index never fell on YoY basis

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@VincentDeluard

3 months

I got the "hawkish Jay" call wrong. 3 hypotheses ➡️The Fed thinks inflation will cool in the next 3 months ➡️ Market misunderstanding: average 2024 dot up, 2025 FFR dot up, long run dot up. Markets only paid attention to the median forecast for 3 cuts in 2024 ➡️the Fed has

Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 months

WHY THE FED WILL SPOOK MARKETS TOMORROW👇👇 The Fed has effectively 3 mandates: inflation, employment, and asset prices. For a few glorious months, it achieved all three. But the inflation mandate has become orthogonal with rising asset prices.

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@VincentDeluard

2 months

Over time, wages must rise faster than asset prices. I hope that this adjustment happens in nominal terms (a higher inflation target should help), and without too much volatility and commodity shocks along the way. Powell seemed to understand that in 2022. Not so much today.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

The average restaurant service worker earns $16 an hour. He must WORK 35 MINUTES TO BUY A BIG MAC AND A GALLON OF GAS With the CA bill raising the fast food minimum wage to $20/ hour, that would be 27 mn, the least in history

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

4 months

The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, rose at an annualized 5.1% last month, its highest growth in a year Just a month ago, the futures market priced SEVEN cuts in 2024! And yet, the rebound of inflation was predictable Extracts from my report "Life Finds a Way" 👇

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@VincentDeluard

2 months

@ThHappyHawaiian That investors still believe we are returning to the old normal and that the 2% inflation target is still a thing, even though the Fed has missed for more than 3 years. In the 70s analogy, the year is 1971, not 1977...

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

SOME THOUGHTS ON TODAY'S CPI I have been an inflationista for more than 2 years : "My inflation obsession" was diagnosed on the @TheMarketHuddle podcast with @kevinmuir and @PatrickCeresna Today's CPI shocked the market - it should not have (1/n)

Inflation Obsession (guest: Vincent Deluard) - Market Huddle Ep.128

*UPDATE* Missing question ~15:00 mark: Why don't you tell for people that aren't familiar with it, the story of what Japan did because they were faced with a...

www.youtube.com

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

This chart summarizes the 700 pages of Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century If "r" (the return on capital) exceeds "g" (economic growth), inequalities increase over time, and workers lose wealth against capitalists

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 months

From my July 2023 report, "Bracing for a Second Wave of Inflation" 💪💪 "the real transitory accident was inflation’s fall to 3% last month, which was the mirror opposite of its rise to 9% last year. In reality, true underlying inflation has reset to a plateau of 4-6% for about

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

6 months

Enrollment in the CFA Level 2 last year fell 88% since June 2019 😱😱 This is an extinction-level change for the industry COVID changed values and behaviors for good The whole "quiet quitting", "acting your wage", "lazy girl job" is real for GenZ ➡️Inflation is not dead!

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

23 days

Well that aged well! 💪💪 Monitoring ACTUAL, REAL-TIME tax collection data works better than surveying a few hundred purchasing managers or asking random people how they feel that day. Can't wait for all the macro bears to tell me how these jobs are not real 🤡🤡

Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

25 days

WOW!! The Treasury collected $41 bn in withheld individual income employment taxes yesterday! There is an end-of-month effect, but even so, it is HIGH Collections for this category are up 4% in 2024, after the IRS increased brackets by 5.4%. ➡️ Don't sweat the soft-ish JOLTS

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

IS COMMERCAL REAL ESTATE A SYSTEMIC RISK FOR US BANKS? Let's start with the vacancy rate of 18%, about the same as during the GFC peak Mostly driven by small overbuilt markets (Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta) LA, SF, DC, NYC not bad, coming off very high occupancy rates pre-COVID

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@VincentDeluard

24 days

What matters in the ECB decision is not the rate cut (whose only justification was to maintain internal consistency) but the increase in the inflation forecast, with core at 2.2% by 2025. Of course, the ECB has no idea, but it signals its greater tolerance for >2% inflation.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 years

WHAT HAPPENED TO MY REFLATION TRADE? A thread The past two months have been brutal for my PA. Some news was objectively bad for inflation trades: delta variant, Fed, China slowdown ... but not enough to justify this massacre. Let's dig deeper 👇👇 (1/6)

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

4 years

The 5 most valuable companies represent 21.3% of the S&P 500's market cap and employ 1 million workers. 10 years ago, the top 5 were 9% of the market cap with 2.7 million workers. I think that is a big deal.

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@VincentDeluard

9 months

LET THEM EAT BONDS "Only a spike in oil prices could wake up the long end from its torpor. Investors should keep duration short and accumulate cheap energy positions to hedge against the risk that a second inflationary shock steepens the curve, setting up the stage for a real

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

9 months

Unpopular opinion Powell was very sharp today and the questions were rather smart. This is a different league than ECB press conferences. This does not change that the Fed made a mistake in March during the SVB crisis and a huge blunder by over-stimulating in 2021.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

9 months

Sometimes the simplest chart tells the best story. Real 2-year yield has increased by 610 basis points since March 2022. That is a paradigm shift for capital markets. Buy TIPS and go placidly amidst the noise and the haste.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

There is a generational aspect to this chart. Boomers are the disproportionate owners of these inflated assets. Millennials and zoomers need to work longer than their parents to acquire homes, stocks, and bonds.

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@VincentDeluard

8 months

"The Treasury Department expects to borrow $750 billion in the fourth quarter, which is $76 billion lower than the prior estimate made in July. The decrease in borrowing needs was largely driven byHIGHER RECEIPTS" NAILED IT 💪👇😀

Treasury cuts its fourth-quarter borrowing estimate

The Treasury Department said Monday it expects to borrow $776 billion in the fourth quarter, $76 billion lower than announced three months ago.

www.marketwatch.com

Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

8 months

Huge $31 billion in corporate income tax collections last week!! 👇👇 Probably due to CA late filings finally coming in. Corporate tax collections are now +4.5% for the year TGA balance rose by $78 bn in 3 weeks to almost a 2-year high. I have been bearish on Treasuries all

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@VincentDeluard

10 months

Good day for my July 19 forecast, "The Inflation Miracle Will Not Last" "Tax collections suggest the economy is experiencing a trampoline landing, and real income gains of 4.3% should boost demand in an already-hot economy. A spike in energy prices could trigger a most unwelcome

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

"It's Time to Retire the 2% Inflation Target" says another bloomberg opinion columnist. First they call you crazy. Then they fight you. Then, they say it was their idea all along. Finally, everyone pays more for their groceries 😂😂

The 2% Inflation Target Regime Should Now Be Retired

With the energy shock now a memory, central bankers require more flexible objectives.

www.bloomberg.com

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

Ancient civilzations understood that wealth, and thus debt, grows faster than wages during periods of peace Babylon and Sumer organized regular debt jubilees. In the Bible, private and public debts must be cancelled every 49 years (Leviticus 25:8-38)

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

DXY WRECKING BALL! Yesterday, I published "Currency Wars, the Dollar Milkshake, and the Swiss Fondue" (merci, @Bardamu_31 ) Thanks to my friend @SantiagoAuFund for the title and convicining me to give up on being the Euro bull 3 years ago. This was a desperate and vain fight.

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@VincentDeluard

2 months

Workers have lost their ability to purchase the scarce goods which matter the most to happiness: a nice home, good education, and a family. Conversely, asset owners have been able to buy more labor from workers.

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@VincentDeluard

4 years

Announced buybacks plummet by 67% in 2020 (mostly pre-Covid-19). Probably why we are not seeing the usual late-day "buy the dip" rallies. This matters because: 1 - Buyback were the single buyers of stock this cycle 2 - Usually leads EPS negative guidance 3 - Also happened in 07

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@VincentDeluard

3 years

Conclusion: Growth-at-any-cost is not a strategy. Price matters. Always. DM me for the report, and sign up for a free trial of my @StoneX_Official reports at

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@VincentDeluard

10 months

The MAG 7 STOCKS HAD NET INTEREST INCOME $1.1 BN YTD - versus net expenses of $1 bn in H1 2022 Why? Their huge cash piles now compound at 5%+ while most of their debt was issued during ZIRP. ➡️ The Fed is litterally subsidizing big tech's profits ➡️ The Fed's hikes do not

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@VincentDeluard

2 months

After 50 years or so, inequalities feed populism and anti-social behaviors because the young and the poor feel that the system is rigged against them (and it is) Asa result, deficits and military spending increase, which further increases inflation.

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@VincentDeluard

2 months

Since Powell dropped the ball, the commodity market is taking over monetary policy. $90 oil and $2,400 gold will force the drop in asset price that the Fed is so afraid of.

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

$6 (with taxes) for a half-bottle of Evian at LAX. Hike it to the moon, Jay!

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@VincentDeluard

1 month

The 1-Year Breakeven Inflation Is Now Below the 2% Target! ... and the 1-year breakeven rate has never been wrong on inflation since COVID 🤡🤡 ➡️Inflation remains the most grossly overpriced macro risk

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

The five largest US stocks account for a record 21% of total market cap, the same level reached at the peak of the 2021 bubble 😮😬 They also trade at 38 times earnings, versus a long-term average of 21.5 ➡️Either we have a massive stock bubble, or a massive antirtrust problem

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@VincentDeluard

2 months

Social democracy can slow economic polarization, but insitutions weaken over time, especially here Corporate and capital gain taxes are cut or evaded, congressmen amass fortunes day-trading, former Fed chairs "consult" for hedge funds, retired SEC officials lobby for banks, etc

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@VincentDeluard

11 months

Quick note about today's CPI print Medical care services was down 0.4% MoM, 10th decline Medical services inflation is MINUS 1.5% YoY Do you experience DEFLATION in healthcare costs? Of course not! This is due to the weird way the BLS measures HC costs, which are up 5-6% YoY

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH JOB NUMBERS? Today, the ADP March estimate of new jobs came in 145 k, versus expectations of 210 k. 2Y yield dropped 10 bp on the news and the recession crowd is screaming for a pause at the Fed's May meeting

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@VincentDeluard

11 months

My "Let Them Eat Bonds" report aged well: "Investors should stop projecting an economic meaning to this non-economic buying: the inversion of the yield curve reflects regulatory and arbitrage demand for long bonds, rather than an imminent recession" Published on July 5.

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

Basic maths on the labor market The past 3 recessions reduced job openings by 2.5 M on average. This would leave 9.2 M job openings, versus 7.4 M at the pre-COVID peak. --> a mild technical recession will not cool down wage pressures --> brace for the 2024 hawkish pivot

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@VincentDeluard

2 years

HOW $META INVESTORS LOST $75 BN 👇👇 A short thread on horribly-timed buybacks and insane stock-option packages Meta repurchased 318 m shares since 2018 at an average price of $236. At the end of last quarter, this amounted to a loss of $38 billion.

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@VincentDeluard

7 months

To all the Sahm rule followers, did the drop in the unemployment rate just cancel the recession? How about we do not invest based on over-optimized rules using low-quality data subject to big adjustments and revisions 🤪? The economy is slowly slowing & the labor market is

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9 months

A Liz Truss Moment in the US Treasury Market ➡️Record bearish reading on the StoneX Treasury Liquidity Scorecard ➡️Normalization of issuance to weigh on price ➡️False sense that Treasuries are oversold: 2023 recession trade still need to be unwound ➡️End of captive demand for

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2 months

The economy rebalances if nominal wages grow faster than asset prices over long periods of time. We are witnessing historical wage growth, but unfortunately, the Fed fights the adjustment by acting as if it had an asset price mandate.

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2 years

➡️ The labor market is structurally tight. Productivity is falling so WE CAN HAVE A RECESSION AND 3.5% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT THE SAME TIME. In a falling productivity economy, GDP and employment will decouple

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@VincentDeluard

5 months

THE FED HAS NOT WON THE BATTLE AGAINST INFLATION - 🧵 Powell will likely claim victory against inflation today: core CPI ex. shelter ran at 1.6% in the past 6 months, and may fall further in Jan Yet, the consensus for the immaculate disinflation rests on a flawed premise

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@VincentDeluard

1 year

Here are my two stupidly verifiable forecasts from tomorrow's CPI report: - headline figure comes close to consensus (6.2%) or even slightly below - market sells off on anything that is not a BIG downward surprise PS - I remain in the inflationista / higher for longer camp.

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@VincentDeluard

5 months

IS THE LABOR MARKET FINALLY WEAKENING? 🧵 The DOL paid 28% more in unemployment benefits in the past quarter than it did in the same period last year and 2022 The series is volatile but the trend is clear now I am not aware of a change in legislation which would explain this

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

Sure, the classical argument is that everyone is gettting richer. Low-income households still get smartphones, flat-screen TVs, and Netflix subscriptions. But there only so many homes in coastal cities, so many quality schools, and so many attractive mates.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

5 months

Crucial chart from @stevehouf The miraculous disinflation of 2023 was made in China (as was the "great moderation" of the late 90s) China subsidized supply, when everyone expected the re-opening to boost demand But Powell is taking the credit (like Greenspan before him)

Steve Hou

@stevehouf

5 months

China has been exporting deflation.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

Keep in mind that inflation always comes in waves! There were 3 waves in the late 40s and 50s inflation, and 3 peaks in the 70s We just had the first peak, but the curve does not price the second and third peaks That is bad for long duration assets, especially growth stocks

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

INFLATION AND THE BEAUTIFUL DELEVERAGING - a short 🧵 Since 2019, the US government cumulated deficits of $7.4 trillion, or 35% of 2019 GDP Yet, the US true government-debt-to-GDP rose by just 4.7%. Why is that? Time for some important public debt concepts

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 months

Powell pretended to be dumb at the March press conference when he refused to acknowledge that easier financial conditions caused the rebound of inflation. The Fed wants to have its cake (lower inflation so real wages increase) and eat it too (forever-rising asset prices)

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

S&P 500 index revenue grew 13% in Q1 ALL THAT GROWTH CAME FROM HIGHER PRICES Median volume dropped 0.6% last quarter ➡️Big change from 2021 when volume & prices rose ➡️Companies raise prices, lose customers, but don't care because they make more from fewer customers.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

4 years

As of yesterday, a 60 / 40 portfolio was up by 7% for the year. Let that sink in. A year which saw the Vix break its 2008 record, oil futures go negative, US GDP shrink by 8% and gold soar to its 2011 high.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

WHAT IS GOING ON WITH CONSTRUCTION JOBS? Job openings back to 412,000 in Feb after a collapse to 283,000 in January. Seems like this one a one-off, maybe due to weather? Challenger job cuts showed a spike in construciton layoffs in Nov reversing in 2023.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

8 months

Chase just asked me if I wanted to open a savings account "to benefit from higher rates". They pay 1 basis point on savings accounts 🙄🤡 But I can get twice that if I qualify for the Premier Relationship 😆 ... No surprise they made $85 billion in net interest income last

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

8 months

Not So magnificent Anymore 👇👇 With the recent Google and Telsa sell-off, the magnificient 7 stocks have wiped out all their relative gains since Nvidia's huge Q2 beat and guidance in May. Since these seven stocks were holding up the index all year long, I wonder what the new

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

4 - The market is crazy to price 3-4 cuts after next year's dovish pivot. THIS IS NOT 2018!! 5 - Investors are not pricing the HAWKISH pivot which will be necessary after the Fed cuts and inflation fails to slow much next year

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

4 years

This interview of @biancoresearch by @ErikSTownsend and @PatrickCeresna is the simplest and most comprehensive macro discussion I have listened to this year. AMAZING JOB as usual Looking forward to being on the @MacroVoices podcast this week.

MacroVoices Podcast

@MacroVoices

4 years

MacroVoices @ErikSTownsend and @PatrickCeresna welcome @biancoresearch to the show to discuss if Jim indeed has turned bullish on the stock market, before moving on to fixed income markets, U.S. dollar, gold, digital currencies and much more.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 years

Offering free one-month trials of my @StoneX_Official reports! Sign up at Listen to recent interviews & podcasts on @RealVision , @MacroVoices , and my "inflation obsession" on @TheMarketHuddle DMs open for any questions

VINCENT DELUARD Inflation Obsession - Market Huddle

Market Huddle podcast with Vincent Deluard- inflation outlook- the case for Mexico- re-opening trade in Europeand so much more...

www.youtube.com

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

8 months

Whenever I get lost in an economist argument about R-star, NAIRU, and the term premium, I ask about the kink at the long end of the Treasury curve. What economic force justifies the extra 35 bp for 20-year Treasury bonds? None. Only liquidity, supply and demand. The market

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

Had a fantastic conversation on secular inflation, the coming profit recession, and the bubble in worthless innovation. Thanks @JackFarley96 , your work on @Blockworks_ has been outstanding 👏👏 via @YouTube

A Profit Recession Is Coming, An End To Inflation Is Not | Vincent...

In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at...

www.youtube.com

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

6 months

Time for your monthly inflation reminder 👇👇 ➡️The CPI has exceeded the 2% target for 34 straight months ➡️Wages are growing by 5.2% YoY per the Atlanta Fed ➡️ Heath services CPI slowly catching up after being negative in 2023 ➡️Home prices are at an ATH, up 4.9% YoY

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

POTENTIAL INFLATION RED FLAGS Used car prices up 2.5% MoM in Jan Zillow rent index no longer declining Two caveats - MoM data is super volatile - CPI uses lagged data for both series so it will keep dis-inflating anyway until June

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 years

Are growth and value "factors" or simply macro bets? Fama-French data shows that ALL THE GAINS OF THE VALUE FACTOR ACCRUED WHEN INFLATION WAS ABOVE 4% Something has to give: inflation or the growth-led Nasdaq rally. My guess is that it will be the latter.

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

Wow, even @elerianm acknowledges that the cost of going back to 2% inflation is excessive! I am sure he knew that for a while, but the fact that he is on the record for a 3-4% inflation target matters. More will follow.

Fed Can’t Reach 2% Inflation Without Crushing Economy, El-Erian Says

The Federal Reserve won’t be able to get US inflation down to its 2% target without “crushing the economy,” economist Mohamed El-Erian warned on Friday, but he said the central bank is unlikely to...

www.bloomberg.com

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

1 year

Slowly but surely, IMF officials and central bankers are suggesting that climate change is causing the high inflation regime. Next step is to increase the 2% target, or drop it altogether (Quote from Gita Gopinath's latest IMF speech).

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

3 months

"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident." - A. Schopenhauer. The end of the 2% target has entered the third stage of truth. GOOD!

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

3 months

FINK: “We’ve always said inflation is going to moderate, but is it going to moderate to the terminal level that the Federal Reserve is looking for? I feel doubtful. Do I believe that we could get a stable inflation between 2.8% and 3%? I’d call it a day and a win.” @CNBC $BLK

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

2 years

If central banks are so keen on quashing inflation (which is declining anyway, right?), why do they keep raising their projections for long-term inflation?

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Vincent Deluard

@VincentDeluard

12 days

Sounds deflationary 🤡

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

12 days

Big jump... *CBO BOOSTS 2024 US BUDGET DEFICIT ESTIMATE TO $1.9T FROM $1.5T

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