๐ Manager Ratings, October 2024 ๐
๐ฅ
@FPL_Barbossa
๐ผ
๐ฅ Fรกbio Borges ๐ฝ
๐ฅ
@teffers82
After Fรกbio's six consecutive seasons at the top, we now have a new
#1
: Tom Dollimore!
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
@FPL_Harry
I'm afraid it's worse than that. The 2.1 odds you get on Eze staying means there is at most a 48 % chance he does. Adjusting for bookie margin (Shin's method) suggests the true probability of him staying is ~40 %.
๐ฎ GW36: CAPTAIN PROJECTIONS ๐ฎ
Salah against Huddersfield is the best remaining TC option and a great differential for owners. Manรฉ is the more popular pick though, arguably allowing a stronger team overall. I slightly prefer Manรฉ in GW36 over Sterling/Agรผero in GW37 as TC.
๐ Manager Ratings, October 2023 ๐
๐ฅ Fรกbio Borges ๐ต๐น
๐ฅ
@finnsollie
๐ณ๐ด
๐ฅ Mark Hurst ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
5. John Walsh ๐ฎ๐ช
11.
@FPL_Jan
๐ต๐ฑ
45. Lion King ๐ฆ
50.
@calm_strategy
51.
@FplGunz
๐ฆ๐ฟ
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
After another spectacular GW for Analytics FC, 6 of the top 10 teams in my manager ratings are now managers known to rely heavily on
@fplreview
and optimization (blue). How long before one of them chase down Fรกbio and becomes the new
#1
?
๐ GW1: Elite 1000 Spreadsheet
The Elite 1000 sample for
@fplreview
is close to ready, but I still have a few more manager histories from late signups to download. In the meantime I'm making provisional EO figures available, old-school style.
๐ Manager Ratings, February 2024 ๐
๐ฅ Fรกbio Borges ๐ต๐น
๐ฅ Mark Hurst ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
๐ฅ John Walsh ๐ฎ๐ช
5.
@FPL_Barbossa
6.
@JonBallantyne3
8.
@FPL_Jan
9.
@BenCrellin
10.
@MarkkuOjala_
12. Lion King ๐ฆ
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
#FPL
5-Year Peak Ratings
The following is the season history of Elite 64 member
@NickTriggerlips
. His 5-year run from 10/11 to 14/15 is the best in recorded FPL history.
@lateriser12
@LiveFPLnet
Have been following Elite 1000 outcomes by strategy since last week. I've uploaded the data below. You followed the 7th most popular plan. People on it scored on average 3.2 fewer points than WC26/FH27/BB28/TC29 managers.
There are only 255 people in the Bullet Wisdom analytics league and 8 of them are in the top 50 in the world. 45 of them are in the top 1000.
5% of the top 1k/16% of the top 50 all being in the same league of 255 people is absolutely insane.
Earlier in the week I was busy planning my
#ESNFantasy
wildcard, but today I finally managed to set up my team/fixture model for the upcoming season. The model uses market odds to infer team strength and quantify fixture difficulty.
Spreadsheet:
Only 4.7 % didn't captained King or Dennis in the
@fplreview
Elite 1000, compared with 15.5 % in the top 10k. Despite the top 10k getting quite strong by now, the difference in skill is still obvious.
๐ Manager Ratings, December 2023 ๐
๐ฅ Fรกbio Borges ๐ต๐น
๐ฅ
@finnsollie
๐ณ๐ด
๐ฅ Mark Hurst ๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ
4.
@JonBallantyne3
6.
@FPL_Jan
9.
@FPL_Barbossa
17. Lion King ๐ฆ
Find your own team in the full spreadsheet (use ctrl+f):
Bookmakers project at goal-fest in GW38! If you still have your TC chip, City are expected to score more goals in GW38, arguably making it the better option. In defence a Liverpool double up is looking terrifyingly strong.
KDB and Bruno Fernandes were not equivalent captaincy options this GW!? ๐ฒ It's almost like these managers don't buy the narrative Bruno is better when playing away.
My sample of 250 elite managers did poorly between GW4 and GW5:
Mean Points: 238.8 โ 287.7
Median Rank: 598K โ 955K
They netted on average 48.9 points in GW5. In total, 120/250 of these distinguished managers are now ranked 1 million or worse.
On their latest pod,
@wee_rogue
and
@analytic_fpl
briefly discussed if clean sheet probabilities differ between teams that tend to concede big versus small chances. To test this, I examined three scenarios, each of which was simulated 10 million times.
The Elite 250 made huge gains in DGW24, in part due to 63.6 % triple captaining Salah. The mean net score was 79.1 points (SD=17.6), resulting in a median rank increase of 231K to 139K. 16/250 managers are currently in the top 10K.
๐ Elite Picks in GW4
The Elite 1000 page on
@fplreview
should become available again in September. In the meantime, here are their ownership figures in GW4, along with a few other elite samples and leagues:
Since Fรกbio Borges started playing in 2014/15, he has scored 1.0 % more points overall than any other manager.
@FPLCorbs
did very well too but was outperformed by 1.3 % in that time frame. When ranking FPL skill purely based on past outcomes, Fรกbio is the self-evident
#1
.
๐ ๐ก๐ฒ๐ ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ผ!
๐ฝ The Greatest FPL Manager Of All-Time | NEW
#1
MANAGER
๐
Perhaps the most useful FPL video you'll ever watch!
Congrats
@FPLCorbs
for moving up to
#1
๐
๐ฎ GW37: CAPTAIN PROJECTIONS ๐ฎ
Although Agรผero is dominating the polls, Sterling is less likely to be substituted and my top pick. However, if you want to play it safe and cover EO, Agรผero is probably your guy. I rate Hazard and Salah as the best differentials.
DEFENCE: 8 GWs FORECAST ๐
City and Liverpool defenders are expected to see the greatest defensive returns. United are being overlooked, but Shaw is their best option and currently suspended. For cheap defenders I would go with Wolves or West Ham.
Liverpool apparently have the five best opening fixtures (attack) and are expected to score 11 % more goals than normally. At the bottom we have Norwich, who face Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City.
๐ฎ GW33: CAPTAIN PROJECTIONS ๐ฎ
Due to home field advantage, Hazard is looking like the best captain shout this GW. Manรฉ led the early polls, but Hazard's haul against Brighton meant he became the more popular choice. On current odds Salah should probably be dropped from GW34.
๐ Elite 250 Picks ๐
GW3 saw huge player movements among top managers. On average, they used 1.71 transfers and took 0.30 hits. Many consider GW3 to be too early for a WC, but 19.2 % of these elite managers disagreed and used theirs.
Full spreadsheet:
MERRY CHRISTMAS
As a present here's episode 5.
@rogue_wee
and
@analytic_fpl
are joined by
@FPL_Salah
and we get into:
- Keeping FPL simple
- The "infamous" FPL transfer hub
- Price points
- Wildcard strategy
- Staying sane playing FPL
Assuming Poisson, a team expected to concede 1 goal, is 36.788 % likely to keep a clean sheet. Unsurprisingly, the theoretical expectation is very close to the observed CS shares. In conclusion, if shots are Poisson distributed, so are goals.
Stronger teams tend to outperform xG. Every 100 Elo is associated with 3,8 % better finishing (ยฑ1.0 %). Man City is currently rated as 277 Elo stronger than the average PL side by , and is expected to outperform xG by 9.4 %.
The
@FFScout
Career HOF top 100 this season () is having a much harder time than the top 100 last year. The mean rank is currently 403K versus 83K at this stage last year. Clearly not every season is created equally.
Loved this interview with the brilliant creator of
@fplreview
! Never before has a more insightful trio discussed statistical, model-based approaches to playing and understanding FPL. ๐ค
๐จ EPISODE 4 IS LIVE ๐จ
@analytic_fpl
and
@rogue_wee
were joined by modelling legend
@fplreview
We get into review's model, modelling minutes, manager skill, WC strategies, Bruno Fernandes (again!), Diogo Jota...
And much more. It's a long one.
Links: