Former D1 college player.
Professionally betting on tennis since 2012.
No.1 ranked tipster on Pyckio.
15% margin through 1000 bets, all at Pinnacle odds.
I Have won 19 of my last 21 settled bets, my best run ever.
Have to remember, (just like in a losing run where itโs the other way around) that 75% + of the profits from this is down to variance.
That said, important to enjoy the good times ๐
Sorry for the lack of bets last 2 days, my cat had a stroke so been lots of trips back and forth to the vets and a lot of stress - I havenโt had time to do as many %s as usual or watch as much as usual.
Nice to have turned the month around after a slow start!
Any feedback is welcome from my subscribers, would you like me to include the minimum odds I consider value for example?
Just one of those days Iโm afraid with Taro up a break in sets 3&4 and Spizziri serving for the 2nd set at 5-1 only to get broken back to back to back ๐ง
Itโs a marathon not a sprint ๐ช
A couple of lucky voids leaves us still without a loser at Roland Garros! Can we continue the run today? Feeling really good about both todays picks ๐ ๐ค
Free bet from the no.1 ranked tipster on Pyckio!
Mannarino to beat Dimitrov 5.06
Mann was v bad last week but has the game to cause an upset on grass, especially a slick low bouncing one like at Queens.
2/10 only
Only 1 of the 2 bets today finished and we move to 10-0 at Roland Garros thx to an epic comeback from Moutet. All posted with pinn limits >ยฃ2k.
Oh hello 17% margin, Iโd missed you ๐
Ps the other one has started okโฆ
Free pick from the no. 1 ranked tipster on Pyckio:
Griekspoor to beat Djokovic
@7
.66
7.00+ is fine.
Djokoโs head can turn to RG if this one stays close!
Popyrin ๐
Was getting worried at 2/18 brk points taken and 3-4 15-40 in the 3rd but he comes through to continue this enjoyable start to the month ๐ช
@BettingIsCool
@RASPicks
@pyckio
I have 17.7% after 853 picks. pinn odds only and all with a pinn limit >โฌ1,500
If we say average stake โฌ100 so it costs 2% for sub costs and take slippage at 5% (it is less) then that still leaves my followers a >10% ROIโฆ
@tennismasterr
We battle here but with a ~17% arb to each other so can def both be +EV! Their recent match in Madrid was Tommys first tment back from his ankle injury and he looked the better player to me until he dropped physically, so Iโve discounted that match a bit.
Who would you rather get tips from, a tipster with 565 picks in the last 6 months and a 22% margin or one with 4500 picks and a margin of 6.4% BUT is breakeven over the last 3 years? Interested to hear thoughts!
I donโt expect to have too many bets this week as I ease myself back into it.
My main betting partner is also still on hols so I donโt have him to bounce my ideas off.
That said one will be coming in 10/15 mins ish.
Free pick from the number 1 ranked tipster on pyckio!
Virtanen to beat De Minaur
@5
.71
I took 6.51 earlier but since then new info has come to light that ADM struggled during his practice y day and says he may not even be able to take to the court today with his hip pain.
Took a day off from the tips today as when you have a horrible R1 like that it can make you second guess yourself.
Only had bets in 2/16 matches myself.
Have had bets in 4/16 for tomo, Iโll post them if prices are still ok at 11am ish tomo as itโs late now.
@edgeaiofficial
Was fairly obviously his knee, no? Had his leg wrapped up in a massive bandage from his thigh to his shin and kept touching his knee after every point in that period when he wasnโt moving.
Been much better since he removed the bandageโฆ
Free Pick:
#Doha
Kotov
@3
.76 to beat Humbert
A lot of Humberts form this last 6 months has come on indoors or quicker courts and it is playing slow here in Doha, even more so today with the wind.
No. 1 ranked tipster on pyckio - give me a follow!
I should clarify - it is genuinely really impressive to be breakeven Vs middle-late market (he waits for 2k liq on pinn) over 3 years. Puts you ahead of 99% of punters and 95+ % of tipsters.
The BBC needs to get more (recent) ex players in to do commentating for Wimbledon. Nick Kyrgios has been really good and Dom Inglot the best of them all for me.
@BettingIsCool
@RASPicks
@pyckio
There is only a 0.63% chance that my picks have actually been at only +9% EV which is what theyโd need to be for your 2% bottom line theory to be correct.
@nishikoripicks
Even more interesting than this, if Djoko loses just 1 set to HH, Sinner has qualified. And he can knock Djoko out by losing to Rune...๐ค
Finally finished my 64 %s, now we wait for Pinn to release and limits to increase.
There are some hilarious mistakes that have been made by the British bookies ๐
@tennismasterr
Chin up, the short run is all variance! I have followed you for a long time and used to see the thinking/narrative behind most of your bets but since Q4 last year this has not been the case...
There is still a 0.0001% chance that Iโm tipping at neutral EV and just getting lucky. If you want to risk it - give me a follow!
Credit
@12Xpert
for the spreadsheet
#dubai
Free pick from No.1 ranked tipster on pyckio!
Murray +1.5 sets vs Humbert 1.833
Murray is 97-17 vs lefies career (exc Rafa) and has beaten Humbert 2 from 2 post surgery.
1.80+ fine
@nishikoripicks
Definitely agree with this one, nice analysis too. My followers got 2.25 tho :)
>20% margin through first 400 picks, best margin on pyckio!
My pre tournament outright pick Dimitrov is safely through to the QF with only 1 set dropped.
It gets tougher now but Anything can happen from here - 3 more wins needed for the big scoop!
Very seldom bet on outrights but with Alcaraz, Sinner and Medv injured and questions marks around Rafa, Djoko, Rune, AZโs court case etc Iโve had a look at the big prices and my fav is Dimitrov at 100/1 + (150/1 betfred is best). Anyone else have any long shot ideas?!
I was worried that indoors would be better for Shelton as itโs faster conditions, but itโs actually giving FAA the chance to stand much further back on return and work his way into the points.
And also, it is still clay beneath Benโs shoes ๐
Pyckio not showing correct odds so Iโll do a free pick here:
Cerundolo to beat Djokovic at 6.84
Super tough for a 37 yr old to play 4.5 hours and have only 36 hours between matches.
6.50+ 2/10 stake only.
๐ฒ๐จ Monte Carlo Masters
Collab with
@tennismasterr
Tabilo to beat Ruud at 4.42
Tabilo has a big lefty game which I think can cause an upset here.
Ruud also had a medical timeout for his right hamstring in his last match which could have hindered his preparations for this one.
Sinner, Djoko and now Alcaraz have looked super shaky in their opening rounds.
This tournament is the most open GS I can remember in that 15+ players actually โcouldโ win the whole thing!
Fair play Evo, impressive stuff. ๐
The cramp on the first match point suggested he probs had to win it 3-0 but Navone not good enough to grab a set ๐ง
Currently enjoying an 8 bet winning streak (at average odds 2.30)!
Including Molleker there as a free bet ๐
Give me a follow - number 1 ranked tipster on Pyckio ๐
@BettingIsCool
@Matthew_Trench
@RASPicks
@pyckio
@12Xpert
What are you talking about?!
The 99.51% is the chance of it being greater than 0 IF the bets have a true EV of 9%.
The EV of my bets is not known but is most likely (statistically speaking) 17.7% as that is my margin.
@mp9tennis
@TidbitsTennis
@Spotify
Really enjoyed this - you guys are defo thinking of the right sort of things required to find an edge, keep up the great work!
A 50 picks package gets you 65 picks which will definitely get you all my US Open bets over the next 3 weeks, historically my best Grand Slam for betting ๐ช
@SamardzicFlair
@1
Went v well in last 2 league matches in UK (hard courts), so perhaps found some form.
Am on all Wendelken stuff also, Huessler was defo too short.
@Matthew_Trench
@BettingIsCool
@RASPicks
@pyckio
No, there is slippage like all good tipsters I guess. But Iโve followed the price action closely after posting and the prices hold up ok.
Iโd say average price taken is 3/4% below my price tipped.
With my margin tho there is still some nice EV to be enjoyed ๐
@BettingIsCool
@Matthew_Trench
@RASPicks
@pyckio
@12Xpert
Remember it started with you โguaranteeingโ that no tipster has a long term ROI of more than 2% after sub costs and slippage.
Surely you agree you canโt guarantee that having looked at my results?
Pyckio not showing correct odds so Iโll do a free pick here:
Cerundolo to beat Djokovic at 6.84
Super tough for a 37 yr old to play 4.5 hours and have only 36 hours between matches.
6.50+ 2/10 stake only.
@BettingIsCool
@pyckio
Yes I do, but you are right to point it out as many make that mistake.
Yes please, that would be great then I can see where the discrepancies are ๐
Very seldom bet on outrights but with Alcaraz, Sinner and Medv injured and questions marks around Rafa, Djoko, Rune, AZโs court case etc Iโve had a look at the big prices and my fav is Dimitrov at 100/1 + (150/1 betfred is best). Anyone else have any long shot ideas?!