Danny Ocean @DannyOcean555 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Danny Ocean

@DannyOcean555

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Generalist looking for a new seat | FCF per share | Slowly slipping down the quality spectrum

A Terry Benedict Casino

https://t.co/S7eKEpuyLU

Joined June 2022

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 months

$GO Sitting on this way too long & need to write my brother’s wedding toast (yikes) Recent issues appear to be temporary, LT growth algo still intact, & believe they can compete w WMT/warehouses/other discounters If anyone has recently spoken w/knows/is an IO, please reach out

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

1 year

Calling out the GS analyst at his own conference. Love it.

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Danny Ocean

10 months

Buckle up for a riveting earnings call when an analyst leads off with this one:

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Danny Ocean

2 years

A non-exhaustive list of topics discussed on the $RH call - Recession - The Fed - Wayfair’s convertible financing - BBBY’s $12B of buybacks - Tesla Roadster deposits - Thomas Edison - Caviar - Apple harvesting company - Inability to find good breakfast in NYC - Gary in a bathtub

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 months

BIG Oh my Paying out 10% of mkt cap (7% bal sheet cash) as a CEO cash retention bonus

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

4 months

BALL Putting out a long term market cap target is absolutely NOT what any company should do.

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Danny Ocean

2 months

GT Wow. Not often a liquid $2.5B mkt cap/$11B EV very-much-real-products company with $20B sales has zero analysts on the call. (Down from five in Q1) And I still wouldn’t go near this.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

4 months

lol “It’s your job, Tiger Cub, to evaluate the read throughs. You should have sold!”

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 months

@checks_inc A client once sent me an Hebrew Excel file- Hebrew block script, right to left, etc. We did not accomplish much that day

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

8 months

Center Lake Capital might have the most bizarre and unhinged 13F I’ve ever seen. Akre-like quality in mega cap tech, usual suspect compounders. Ok. Whatever… And then a lone small cap private prison operator?!

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

$CVNA That’s it: Chapter 11 averted. Excellent use of corporate resources. Can’t believe the stock isn’t limit up.

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Carvana Named Title Sponsor of the Professional Pickleball Association in Multi-Year Partnership

investors.carvana.com

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

This is, unironically, the actual “private equity approach to public markets” CEO/mgmt driven change focused on items “down the income statement”- SG&A, taxes, interest GM & rev expansion are nice, but too hard to diligence/depend on Worth the listen.

Scott Hendrickson - An Unmasking of Quality

Podcast Episode · Value Investing with Legends · 03/17/2023 · 52m

podcasts.apple.com

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

9 months

Somewhat unpolished write up on Eventbrite (EB) I’ve had kicking around for a while. Although I mostly use Twitter for nonsense, I will be looking for a new seat soon- figured might as well start putting out a few ideas. Happy to discuss, hear pushback, share model, DM, etc.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

8 months

Cooperman’s really living his best life “Now, THE Bloomberg shows you have 150M shares outstanding…”

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

1 year

Starboard filed a 13D with a 9.9% stake in BLMN. Cannot wait for the sequel to everyone’s favorite activist pitch deck:

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Danny Ocean

3 months

$GENI write up Disclaimer: I meant to get this out a few weeks ago, but have been busy onboarding a new analyst*, & price has run up a bit since. Still believe it’s a neat, largely misunderstood business & opportunity. *Bonus photo of my “analyst” at the end.

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Danny Ocean

15 days

This is wild stuff I fed it the 10-K & three random Third Bridge transcripts Result was basically 75% of the way there to some of the weaker Business Breakdown episodes

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

6 months

Ah, there’s your CROX bull case.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

28 days

BL So, this thing is either going to be sold to your Vista/TPG/Francisco/TB or IBM

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

11 months

PARA with the sly Friday night 8-K change in control amendment. Appears Bakish’s severance multiple was boosted from par-for-the-course 2x to a generous 3x. Who’s a realistic buyer? CMCSA? Can WBD support more debt? Sell off piece meal?

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Danny Ocean

8 months

Glad to see Elliott really cracking the whip at ETSY

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

3 months

VFC Finally selling Supreme brand purchased in 2020 for $2.1B Napkin math- $1.5B cash (9x TTM EBIT pre corp), say $1.2B post tax/tx + $600M FCF in ‘24 EoY pro forma $9.1B EV & ‘25 EBITDA ~$800M, so ~11.5x: not rly cheap But net leverage: 6.5x > ~4.5x What’s Vans etc worth?

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Danny Ocean

8 months

MUSA Spectacular. The world does not need another Outsiders book (seriously, one was enough), but Clyde deserves a spot.

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Danny Ocean

2 years

@StockJabber Eh. Two big differences 1. They’re not building a destabilizing captive finance arm that owns Polish mortgages 2. Zuck’s still young, going to be around for a while, not handing the reins to some hack like Immelt.

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Danny Ocean

2 years

$PRM I get it- great biz: secular tailwinds, switching costs, entrenchment, low cost rel to total fire spend, mid 30s EBITDA margins, Howley, yada yada Even w 15x mult & no NT plans for cap rtn to shareholders. Fine But I can’t do this sort of dil comp structure in a public co

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

@buccocapital People forget the Ben Bernake buying The Treasury bonds from The Goldman Sachs.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

8 months

Great stuff. Even better that Jurek didn’t take the analyst’s “data center” (read: AI) bait.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

4 months

Lina Khan- save us! Also, pls let FUN/SIX and FA/STER through

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

Found a small cap- stock (still) battered by the pandemic- but with all the bones to be a decent company & trade much higher… 42 listed Tegus interviews. Yikes.

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Danny Ocean

1 year

OLPX Good god. This is the kind of guide cut that warrants a pre-announcement.

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Danny Ocean

7 months

@junkbondinvest Horrendous take. Where else can I find Italian vacation villas, slightly scratched up Submariners, and vetted NYC baby sitters besides POSH <GO>?

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Danny Ocean

7 months

We are a “make-money” fund. Allocators may hate style drift… but not as much as they love big out performance.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

1 year

Non zero chance some of the pods also have this in their models.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

8 months

It’s so cheap- 6x EBITDA, 6.5x FCF, $1.50+ FCF/share in ‘25 Huge bbk authorization & credible history of repurchases + shareholder friendly debt paydown Long tail ICE + further US hybrid penetration I get it But v hard to buy something NT ex growth w EV science project risk

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Danny Ocean

1 year

CHGG The AI existential threat may or may not be justified. But, so far, mgmt’s capital allocation is uncommonly prudent: -Retiring debt at a discount -Buying back stock + large new authorization -Oh, and not doing some large, panicked, dumb AI M&A deal

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Danny Ocean

1 year

Come on. This is a 8 inch sub advertised as a foot-long. You know you’re talking to (dumb) equity people. FCF is always levered.

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Danny Ocean

4 months

MIDD Was reminded by recent outrage over MCD’s Taylor ice cream machines & Bassoul’s SIX comp package (not much overlap btwn the two groups) Anyone up on them? 12x PE, closer to 11x on ‘25. Is that too low a multiple for leading OEM + still more QSR automation capex to come?

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Danny Ocean

11 months

@bucketshopcap Relevant Levine.

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Danny Ocean

6 months

BOWL Oh my Apparently water slides + leverage is the source of “infinite returns”

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

3 months

In times of panic, investors often flock to higher quality assets.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

5 months

@liensofnewyork “We respectfully disagree. In person management & investor meetings- especially over a healthy, yet satisfying, meal- are crucial to ensuring efficient price discovery & favorable access to capital.” -Mangia Catering

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Danny Ocean

2 years

$TWLO Pro tip: when you’re firing people, stop with the cutesy names.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

18 days

AMTM Trades @ 3-5x turn discount v LDOS & CACI (no idea re relative biz quality) Spin rules- only value rtn to SH is paydown, but can start bbk in FY ‘27 If algo holds (big IF), FY ‘28: $1.3B EBITDA, >$3 FCF/sh & 2x levered + If rerate to 12x (below comps): $60/sh, >20% IRR

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Danny Ocean

6 months

@ClarkSquareCap It’s astounding this loophole hasn’t yet been closed:

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Danny Ocean

7 months

Misc nonsense: LW: w 7 handle- say $6.50 FY ‘26 EPS @ 18x=20% IRR GTX: proxy next wk, expect sizable intra qtr bbk TDOC: CEO booted. Stock=dog. But, 8x ‘25 FCF (yes- SBC). Is there now upside? SPR: sale/split/etc will happen- is there an arb? BA/INTC: great longs- eventually

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Danny Ocean

4 months

Ugh. Pls no.

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Danny Ocean

6 months

PTLO So, maybe just say there’s a “cult-like following” & we’ll take your word for it. Don’t need to put this in the S-1:

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Danny Ocean

3 months

He can’t tell you how $10 of depreciation affects the three statements, but has already broken the office “team-building-definitely-not-hazing” doughnut eating record.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

@veryfinanceguy I’m floored the thing hasn’t blown up due to some horrible accident & corresponding huge insurance liability claim. Strangers, likely drinking, bringing their kids to an un-lifeguarded pool? Sure, I’ll underwrite that time bomb.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

Tell me you’re a lawyer moonlighting as interim CFO without telling me. “Or whatever it is”

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

7 days

CASY “I’m not saying we’re worth more than 13x EBITDA, but we really are bc…” Still fair/rich for 8-10% grower, even w decades+ runway. Prob will regret not buying Other- future is consolidation, margin/growth is in food (MUSA weak spot) & noncombustible mix shift +Poor FIVE

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 months

AAP The answer is always “never” and “don’t do it.” But! Pro forma for WP sale, if 1% growth to ‘26, EBIT margins 3.5% (~1/2 pre COVID) Could see $650M EBITDA. @ 7x = $75/sh (20%+ IRR) & north of $3/sh FCF, all w net cash & assuming no bbk Looks beautiful on a spreadsheet

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Danny Ocean

1 year

The Jefferies analyst that manufactured this story was also in the call. To her credit, she knew she couldn’t seriously broach the subject AND that journalists have the (crucial!) luxury of asking the dumb questions.

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

7 months

Inadvertently hilarious (morbid) comment from SCI

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

7 months

A suggestion for podcast hosts struggling to find guests to interview- Try the $1.6T Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund approach: “Today, we have Joe Tsai, the co-founder of Alibaba. I’m so very grateful he’s taken the time to speak with me… BTW, we also own 2% of the company.”

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

@LeveragedLayman Lots of home improvement stocks crushed. If you believe in the long tail housing thesis (upgrades will come as low rates lock people into their new or refi’ed homes), worth a look. ARHS, TREX, AZEK, GFF, JELD, PNR, HAYW etc

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Danny Ocean

9 months

@rvc330 Was that also Bud Fox?

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Danny Ocean

5 months

DAY “Nowhere to hide in FCF” lol. Sure.

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Danny Ocean

10 months

Auto biz & culture truly is unique Industry transplants don’t seem to work (+somewhat telling no one from AZO/ORLY has ended up as AAP CEO- sure Starboard tried) “Team O’Reilly” is a constant earnings call refrain. AAP simply lacks this passion, pride, & corresponding retention

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Danny Ocean

3 months

FIVE Insiders calling a bottom? Great trade- if it works Extra $300K cash for staying through January + ~17K shares @ $70 if stay through July ‘26 CMO gets the above PLUS $50K extra salary PLUS up to 28.5K shr by July ‘25 Or maybe board just scared by mgmt threatening to walk

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Danny Ocean

3 months

“Hi, ABC IR team. Great to speak Quick first question- if I add your class A, B, up-C class V units, warrants, and OTM convertible I get to X fully diluted shares. Is that right? I just need a ball park.” IR: “Ah- great question. We’ll, uh, have to get back to you there…” Hmm

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Danny Ocean

6 months

LAD Comp structure reflecting/reinforcing shift away from absolute growth focus (ie, buying Ferrari & Airstream dealers) and towards per share value. Some something “incentives” & “outcomes”

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Danny Ocean

3 months

@rhunterh Best part about that $11? It’s an average. Same bodega. Same order. Same cashier. But the price will arbitrarily float between ~$9 to $13. Keeps life exciting.

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Danny Ocean

2 months

More importantly- This is an opportunity to buy the dip in CMG at only, uh, 45x earnings

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

@Quartr_App @bgurley @michaelbatnick @QTRResearch @empax1 @SamRossEsq @Metis65 @EpsilonTheory @RampCapitalLLC @levie @JoinCommonstock It gets even better when you start adding letters: “Adjusted EBITDAM” Because of course marketing isn’t a material, cash, recurring, core business expense.

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Danny Ocean

3 months

MUSA Incredible performance & we all love Clyde But, at 20x PE, what’s the bull case from here? CPG margins have compressed, but still above pre-Covid’s mid teens CPG, could fall more Quick Check = small, can’t lean into inside sales like CASY Take more share frm mom & pop?

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Danny Ocean

1 year

Long suffering Aimia shareholders: nice, $500M+ PLM divestiture, huge bbk/special dividend incoming! Mittleman: Ropes Shareholders: What? Mittleman: I hear you. More ropes.

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Danny Ocean

6 months

$FA $STER All the background checkers have been public market duds But! The merger presents a very real opportunity for a scaled, highly profitable, more resilient, shareholder-friendly company to emerge Requires some faith in mgmt/looking beyond NT macro (Yes- lacks polish)

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

@ChairliftCap Assuming company is somehow segmented (LoB, different customers, etc) What part of your business are you most excited about? (Total softball, mgmt brings out canned response, their guard drops) Ok, and if you could get rid of one part of your business, what would it be? “Oh”

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Danny Ocean

6 months

VSTS Woof Customers churning & can’t take price due to “service efficacy” concerns Translation: mgmt had ample time/opp to fix known issues pre-spin & didn’t COO left in Feb, now 8.5x EBITDA Ok Say mgmt steps up, FY ‘26: 4-5% rev, to 14% mrgn, $175M FCF At 8.5x: $17-18/shr

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Danny Ocean

6 months

GTX Decent refi: replacing 9 & 10% TL with 7.75% fixed ~$20M+ annual pre tax cash savings. Duopolist (yes, low growth), but sub 6x ‘25 FCF

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

3 months

What I’d like from a given IR site: Press releases All presentations (don’t delete older ones) IR day materials (make easy to find) Nice to have: transcripts, media (mgmt interviews), downloadable #’s (see IMAX- wow) And Buyable branded apparel + hilarious accessories:

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Danny Ocean

2 years

My favorite macro economist is speaking later today. $RH

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Danny Ocean

5 months

Defining moments in human history: - Discovery of fire - Invention of the wheel - Landing on the moon - Chipotle 50 for 1 stock split

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Danny Ocean

1 year

WMG As expected, spectacular nepotism. “Experience working with companies…” “Generational diversity…” “Now old enough to rent a car”

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Danny Ocean

2 years

BOOT Personal favorite CEO YTD Also, looks like the market started to “understand.”

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Danny Ocean

9 months

Good lord. I can’t wait for the same question on the PLAY call: “So, uh, with the recent success of Formula 1 in the U.S., have you experienced a noticeable uplift in bumper car ticket sales? And how should we think about this flowing through to 4-wall EBITDA?

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Danny Ocean

6 months

Fun Friday PM change in control 8-K: CEO’s base & bonus severance multiple increased from 2.0x > 2.5x Works out to about an extra $1M cash Worth noting CEO is also the chair & owns >2% of the company So- maybe now more receptive to a takeout offer?

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Danny Ocean

6 months

DCO Rejected $60/share offer this AM (10x EBITDA) Reiterated ‘27 tgts: ~$950M rev w implied 3.5% organic CAGR, ~$170M EBITDA (6.5x), $80M FCF (>10x) So, MSD topline, LDD EBITDA growth @ high teens margin, sub 2x levered Trading 9.5x v peers low teens+ What’s a fair multiple?

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Danny Ocean

1 year

Great to see CELH at the GS Global Staples conference- right alongside CL. People are finally recognizing “peach vibe” flavored meth-in-a-can is just as essential as toothpaste and soap.

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Danny Ocean

3 months

CMPO David Cote buying a 60% stake for $372M, collapsing dual share structure (no more TRA), joining as chairman Can we shoehorn AI into this thing for a VRT 2.0?

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Danny Ocean

2 years

@ClarkSquareCap Search re litigation / insurance proceeds 13Ds, 13Gs flipping to 13Ds Reporting chg: eg new segment breakout People chg: mgmt, directors, ownership/comp/incentives- pair w research of backgrounds, infl shareholders, biz events (eg product release or even investor day). Mosaic

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Danny Ocean

9 months

Honestly- Even if the fees were 3 & 30, plus the right to ask me to drive him to the airport on Friday afternoon, I’d still put a significant chunk of my net worth in any Matt Levine-run fund.

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Danny Ocean

3 months

Top of mind / running list of companies with elevated CapEx or RX expenses that is or (allegedly) will step down “soon”: LW SHC TSN PRMW WEST (eh) FLL (pseudo special sit) THS VSTS (should be spending $$$ on a fix!) IDK- HAIN, PRKS, FUN, PLAY? Others- many.

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Danny Ocean

2 months

Can’t wait to buy this thing post-reorg on the evergreen thesis that: 1. Amazon can’t deliver balloons 2. Helium prices will never ever spike (again)

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Danny Ocean

2 years

Wow! GOOS management at this investor day sounds really confident in their disciplined, not-blowing-it-all-out strategy for reducing inventory. Good to hear. Separately, the free jackets they’re handing out to the audience are fantastic!

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Danny Ocean

2 years

@PrefShares Most SOTP that include several utterances of “and you’re getting this for FREE!”

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@DannyOcean555

Danny Ocean

2 years

@ValueIdeaLog Other end of the spectrum:

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Danny Ocean

6 months

10/10 earnings press release. No notes.

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Danny Ocean

4 months

Any surprising negative working capital / non-financial float income companies out there? Unusually high gift card/deposit balances, strong receivables factoring terms, etc. Aside from grocers, SBUX (“it’s a bank!”) Recent top of mind- EB, ACVA, KDP, PDCO (?)

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Danny Ocean

2 years

@compound248 I’d never bet against this guy.

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Danny Ocean

9 months

@bucketshopcap Bayberry- on the cusp of “emerging”, esp given it’s a Tiger grand cub. Otherwise, really nice portfolio. Aldrich seems sharp (though I have no specific knowledge). Believe they were early to WSC & doubled down in size at covid lows.

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Danny Ocean

1 year

FLL Dan Lee is one of the more fun, completely unhinged CEOs.

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Danny Ocean

7 months

MTN S(kiing)aaS Incredible stuff

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Danny Ocean

11 months

Lay up trivia of the week: guess the short seller. (Don’t overthink this) Jacobs: “In 2018, XPO was the target of a short seller. I can’t remember who The report was nonsense & buzzwords to attract media attention Apparently this activist copy & pasted material across tgts.”

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Danny Ocean

3 months

JELD the next building products takeout? Simplified w sale of Australasia biz to PE for ~7x CFO gone (writing on wall?) Comps DOOR (8.5x, 40% premium) and PGTI (11x? 60%+) both recently sold So: 8x $350M ‘24 EBITDA= $19.80/shr, nearly 40% premium What’s QXO’s capacity again?

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Danny Ocean

7 months

RSKD Yet another busted ‘21 vintage, Tel Aviv based, net cash tech co… But! ‘24: Inflecting EBITDA +ve, $30M FCF, have reduced headcount & stock comp, w bbk >> net share reduction @ 10% GMV/sales (flat take), 50%+ incrementals, EBITDA margins to ~14% >> ‘26: $65M+ FCF, ~9x

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Danny Ocean

9 months

Most slept on financial engineering story of the past year. And hands down my favorite shitCo.

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Danny Ocean

2 years

@BazCap @rhunterh What Tegus really needs to do is sell the meta data & analytics: What types of funds are asking about what companies? Timing of requests? Frequency? Most requested interviewee backgrounds? Analytics on types of questions. Etc. Call it Tegus for the buyside whisper.

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Danny Ocean

17 days

Explicitly citing Street estimates on an earnings call feels very strange. Especially when it’s premeditated & in the prepared remarks.

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Danny Ocean

10 months

Only a mild rise during this risk on, garbage up-and-to-the-right rally = BOWL must be a compounder

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