James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy Twitter profile

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

19 days

Forecast for 2025 and into 2026.

Wellington-Altus

@wellingtonaltus

20 days

Are unresolved issues still plaguing global markets? With debt levels at historic highs and deflationary forces at play, @DrJStrategy examines where investors should focus in 2025 and beyond. Find out in his October #MarketInsights : #Investing #Deflation

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

The Fed has no choice. If rates are not cut we get a financial crisis. There is too much government debt! We now live in an era of Fiscal Dominance. The term "fiscal dominance" refers to a situation in which the government's fiscal policy (Deficits of 6% and Debt to GDP at

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

Simple rule.. liquidity leads risk assets. M2 growth now positive, QT surprise by Fed, rate cuts in 2024. Pain trade due north.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

Negative growth in Full Time Work. No false positives in predicting a recession.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

ISM PMI Employment 43.4 Only time lower. 1) the internet bubble popping. 2) the GFC. 3) Covid-19.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

6 months

Wow .. now CNBC talking about the 212,000…

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Big risk in Canada is that the Bank of Canada assumes that the Canadian Economy is similar to the US economy, a diversified economy. And follows Fed step by step. Canadian economy is not diversified, more dependent on real estate and energy. Housing already getting hit hard.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Yen Carry Trade unwind coming to an end. Global liquidity is increasing. Global reflation trade stands in front of investors. Invest wisely. Keep it simple.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 year

Home prices April 2023: -4.1%. Biggest drop since 2012. CPI Shelter recorded as up over 8%.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Why would a rational investor keep money in a zero 0% account at a bank when they can get 4.5% in a money market fund? Even if the deposits are fully insured. Asking for a friend.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

@SteveRattner Full Time Jobs declined -625K.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Change in Full-Time work is negative. It’s a simple rule, when negative we get a recession. Yes the Fed is late. Yes the eco growth measured by GDP is a mirage caused by a 7% deficit. I know there are rules and laws that some folks have created. No false positives. 👇

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

New York Fed Multivariate Core Trend Inflation. Just released 👇 MCT Inflation is 2.1%. FFR is 5.375% … with lags of 18 months Wall St is worried about 25bps. With Yield Curve inversion rivalling 1929, the damage has been done.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

Empire Manufacturing big miss. Advanced retail sales big miss. Note the downward revisions. Retail sales ex auto and gas negative. Retail sales control group -0.3%. CPI MOM over 70% shelter and Gasoline. Playing out just like 2007.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

It’s called Deflation. No one should be surprised!!!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

The Fed Needs to pick its poison. Cut Rates, stop QT, or eventually monetize the US Debt. It really has no other options. Welcome to the era of Fiscal Dominance. Debt monetization, also known as monetary financing, is the process by which a government borrows money from the

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

@igetredpilled Yes Common sense solution ..hard to do…

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

20 days

Full Time Job Growth YOY NEGATIVE!! Ignore the noise, this variable has no false positives simply 1950 in recession predictions.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

The Fed is late. The Fed owns this.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

@SteveRattner @carlquintanilla Full Time Jobs declined! Sorry a Strong Job market and Economy does not have declining Full Time job growth.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Think about this for 1 minute. Basically no inflation month over month for two consecutive months and even Goldman loses it. Message .. we want deflation now !! Recall June inflation m/m was 1.3%.

Carl Quintanilla

@carlquintanilla

2 years

GOLDMAN: "We now expect a 75bp hike in September followed by 50bp hikes in November and December, which would take the funds rate to 4-4.25% by the end of the year." [Hatzius]

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

A strong Jobs market and Economy would not have declining Full Time employment. One and Six Months : declining Full Time Jobs. By my tally : 1.3 million full time jobs lost over the past year.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

Historic inversion of yield curve. Do you really think that this time it’s different?

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 year

Why is no one talking about the largest short position ever in the UST 2 year? If it was a stock they would be banging pots and pans 24/7 about how crowded the trade is!! Wonder how much leverage is in the short the UST 2 year trade? ISI chart.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

6 months

Deflation on US shores. CEO of Walmart. “We’re seeing deflation”

The Transcript

@TheTranscript_

6 months

Walmart US CEO: "At $WMT, we are now seeing prices that are in line with where they were 12 months ago. I haven’t been able to say that for a few years now...The last few weeks, we've taken even more prices down in areas like produce and meat and fresh food" [ @ABC ]

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

6 months

Walmart CEO says disinflation and pockets of deflation. Pundits and Journalist on CNBC and Bloomberg say inflation. Chart below says listen to the guy running WALMART.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

@briantylercohen Full Time Jobs -625K 👇

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

My view: Bear Market low hit in Oct 22. Dxy HS top forming target low 90’s S&P 500 hits 4300 in Q2. Jan #’s were caused by historic seasonal adjustments Inflation not caused by low unemployment and this is not the 70’s. No recession Fed pauses and cuts late in 2023

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

17 days

If the Economy and the Labor market is as strong as many will have you believe then explain 1) Average Weekly Hours worked. Only time lower, GFC and C-19. 2) Jolts Hires Total Nonfarm approaching levels only seen in recessions. Amazing how Wall St misses these simple basic

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

Full Time Jobs -625K We will now be told that Part-Time job growth is a sign of a strong economy. 👇

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Did the BOJ just blink? This time it’s not different.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

@heavyhazzard If that’s what you believe then short risk assets. That’s what makes a market.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

@historyrock_ How Joni Mitchell is not on the list is beyond me.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

US inflation scare is over.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Rallies off Bear Market lows tend to be technical in nature. Symmetry is a big fundamental driver in technical analysis. The Symmetry in the S&P 500 points to rallies similar to 2019 and 2020. In 2019 and 2020 new highs were made.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

@LHSummers Respectfully disagree.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Dry Bulk Index.. Fed narrative and consensus laps up.. we see no economic slow down or price declines .. really!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

Keep it simple. The slower the Fed goes in cutting. The deeper the cuts will be and the longer rates will stay low. Yes we are heading for an era where rates are Lower for Longer.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Yes the Fed is late. No one should be surprised!!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

Retail Sales. Economy is decelerating fast. 1) Ex Auto’s -0.1 2) prior month revised down. More evidence that the Fed has already made a policy mistake.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

PPI final demand YOY. Let’s look at revisions. Previous period revised down to 1.8%. Core PPI YOY revised down to 2.1%. Old rule: macro data is noisy and the 1st print is usually wrong.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

BlackRock’s Rieder Says US Rate Cuts, Not Hikes, Needed to Tame Inflation. Mr. Rieder says it out loud. Rate cuts will bring inflation down. What I’ve been saying for over 2yrs.

BlackRock’s Rieder Says Cut, Not Hike, to Tame US Inflation

BlackRock Inc.’s Rick Rieder has some advice that bucks conventional wisdom: The best way for the Federal Reserve to temper inflation will be to lower rates, not hold them higher.

www.bloomberg.com

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

The Fed should be cutting in June. With a 18 month lag in monetary policy. With a yield curve inversion rivalling the 1929 policy mistake. And with inflation manageable, the Fed needs to start now.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

Canada CPI. 12 Months CPI 1.24% ex Shelter. And the BOC overnight rate is 4.5%. Think about that for 1 minute.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

The Fed has run out of options, and it's mind-boggling how Wall Street so-called experts conveniently overlook some basic facts: monetary policy takes time to kick in, asset prices anticipate the future, labor and price indicators are lagging indicators, CPI driven by OER a

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Waiting for the other shoe to drop.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

Super Core PCE 0.183% down from 0.662%. The Super Core leg of the stool for the inflation is permanent sticky crowd just fell off.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

Why is Gold running? The Fed has no other option. The fiat currency experiment may be coming to an end. For decades we were warned this day would come. Is it here? We’re in an era of Fiscal Dominance like the 1950’s. If we don’t get rate cuts, and a devaluation of the USD, then

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Wall St will soon realize that the majority of inflation was transitory. Supply Shocks need to be digested, just as a Python digests a Pig. narratives can quickly change. The real surprise will be in 2024 when Core PCE is under 2% and we get a deflation scare

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

With USD breaking out, and at levels not seen since 1997, the Fed looks like it’s ok with creating another global financial crisis.. none of the Fed speakers last week spoke to the risks of the strong USD wrt the rest of the world ..

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

Lumber prices are a very good leading indicator. Consumer Discretionary stocks getting hammered. The Private sector is on the verge of contraction. Yet Wall St keeps pounding the table saying the economy is strong. Ignoring the sugar high created by extreme levels of

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 month

It’s not just about a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut; the Federal Funds Rate should currently be at 2.75%. Tune in to discover why.

Wellington-Altus

@wellingtonaltus

1 month

Tune into @FoxBusiness today at 2PM ET to hear our Chief Market Strategist @DrJStrategy discuss #FOMC and the outlook for the economy with @cvpayne . #MarketInsights #Investing @federalreserve

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Unemployed for 27 weeks & over. Yes labor is a lagging indicator! Yes the labor market is weakening. Yes it’s just beginning. 👇

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

I stand by my call of the Fed cutting 50 bps in September.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

China yields breaking down. Folks it’s called a debt deflation spiral in economics! Coming to the West … 10 year👇

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 year

Bank Credit. All Commercial Banks. The only time it’s been lower in the GFC. Negative credit impulses are deflationary.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

In case you missed it..UK jobs -85k. This feels like the GFC all over again.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

For the record, the stock market is not the economy. It’s amusing how many people are using a robust stock market as a stand-in for economic strength. Nothing could be further from the truth.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

China is in deflation. M1 is down 5%. Will interest rates in China go to 0%? Will China export deflation? Debt/Deflation spiral once it starts….

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

10 months

@D_Blanchflower We missed you !

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

@lisaabramowicz1 A Job Market built on Part-Time job growth is a house built on sand. No one should be surprised!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

6 months

When the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the foremost economic institution globally, fails to acknowledge that the Fed, despite its abundance of Ph.Ds, cannot comprehend that the recent uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is primarily driven by factors such as Owners'

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Sorry folks, that was not a good 10 Year Auction today. As I keep saying, do we get a financial crisis before we get a growth scare. Welcome to the era of Fiscal Dominance.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

19 days

@LHSummers Respectfully disagree.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

My simple thesis: we rally until mid 2025 with an S&P 500 target of 6500. Followed by a pullback into the fall of 2026. The Road map is the late 1940’s.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

The USA is a service based economy. Todays ISM points to continued price declines in the services sector, and continued weak employment. Note the action of yields and thev Japanese Yen to report. Inflation scare is over. Rate cuts will be larger than you think. Watch the

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

With the Fed focus on Job market can the Bank of Canada do the same ? According to StatsCan.. 87% of jobs since C-19 are public sector jobs. Think about that for one minute. Please spare the economy is white hot narrative because of the business cycle.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

Simple fact: Markets are forward looking. Central Bankers live in the past. Fed is late. Rates going lower. Below 2% by the end of the cycle. This time is not different. The boom bust cycle of rates continues.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

PCE 0%. Sorry the inflation shock is over. The Policy Mistake has already been made. And Wall St is hyperventilating over a 25 bps cut. LOL

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

Yes A Hard Landing in Canada. Somebody had to say it, might as well be me. The current economic landscape in Canada raises significant concerns for objective researchers. Notably, unemployment rates in two key provinces—Alberta at 7.7% and Ontario at 7%—suggest a troubling

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

BOC cut 25 bps. Finally!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Don’t be surprised if the economic data gets nasty after the Presidential Election. The policy mistake has already been made! The private sector is contracting. Don’t be surprised that after the fact we are told the recessions started in 2024.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

@Alturamikey How do they reduce the deficit? Cut spending or cut rates.. hard to cut spending easy to cut rates.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

27 days

Do investors genuinely believe that flooding the Chinese economy with cash will magically resolve its structural issues? Are they really convinced that we’re heading back to a golden age of hyper-urbanization and relentless infrastructure expansion? The so-called "China Bazooka"

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

Fed should cut 50 bps in September. Fed needs to get to r* forthwith.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

Powell today suggest he as well as Officials at the Fed are confused about shelter inflation. “Housing inflation has been a bit of a puzzle” To help the cause, can someone please forward this simple explanation to the Fed. 👇 The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rent methodology

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

China CPI deflation :-0.1% MoM China PPI deflation. Exporting deflation to the West will become a theme in the very near future.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Job openings in construction fell off a cliff. A 49% decline m/m. Interest rates hikes starting to bite. 0ld saying : construction is the business cycle.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

Keeping it simple. 1) Fed needs to cut. 50 bps in September. 2) By the end of 2025 FFR needs to be close to 2%. 3) Fiscal Deficits need to decline from 7% to under 3%. Investors need to put a Credit Crisis on their Bingo Card if the current warning sighs are ignored.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

The US manufacturing sector contracted further in May, with the ISM manufacturing PMI falling to 48.7, indicating a faster pace of contraction compared to the previous month. The decline was driven by a significant drop in new orders, which fell by 3.7 points to 45.4, the largest

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

I guess I can now go back to my hiking. The inflation scare is over. Ring of Kerry 👇

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

The Dudley pivot. If the Fed does not cut in July. 50 bps in September would not surprise. Don’t ignore Mr Dudley’s pivot!!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

For the record. I have been persistently highlighting the looming dangers of the approaching end of this credit cycle, but it seems my warnings have fallen on deaf ears. Central bankers' unwavering commitment to raising rates in a global economy burdened with extreme levels of

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 month

Inflation at target. Labor market sluggish. Private sector close to recession. FFR should be at r* now. That’s 2.75% Fed needs to cut 50 bps.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

6 months

Core PCE no surprise. Shelter again. MoM basis a big jump in legal fees. US economy is decelerating. Private sector close to contraction. And Real FFR at historic highs. All while the rest of the world’s inflation heads below 2%. Fed is late again.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

US Inflation Is Actually Being Driven by Higher Interest Rates, JPMorgan Says - Bloomberg And there it is higher rates drive inflation. Been saying this for 18 months. All you have to do is objectively look at the data. Now Wall St gets it.

JPMorgan Makes the Case That High Rates Are Actually Driving Inflation

Costlier mortgages are spilling into rent, and the Fed needs to ease up, Jack Manley says

www.bloomberg.com

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

5 months

Household Survey: asking real people if they have a job. -408k

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

7 months

@Santiag78758327 So was the Pound Sterling

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

GDI is 1.3%. Fun fact of the day, GDI is better at predicting recessions than GDP. When Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is significantly lower than Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it can indicate several potential issues or dynamics within an economy. GDI is more predictive of

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

They have learned nothing … we will be dealing with deflation in the future. The Fed is over tightening.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 month

The Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis point cut should surprise no one. With the private sector on the brink of recession and the Fiscal Deficit skyrocketing by 25% this year, many pundits are confused. However, this is classic behavior during an election year in the four-year

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

US Inflation Breakeven. 1 Year 0.77% Sorry folks the policy mistake has already been made. Debt/Deflation spiral awaits.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

The Fed can cut close to 125bps right now and still be restrictive!!

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

9 months

We live in Historic times. Powell now owns this. Explicitly stating on the record that no action in March. Ok May is the 1st cut. The consequences of being late again are now on the Powell FOMC. Late to hike and late to cut. 1) Government accumulates Historic levels of

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 years

Wow.. the narrative may be changing before our eyes.

FinancialJuice

@financialjuice

2 years

FED'S EVANS: THE FED IS FACING A DIFFICULT MESSAGING PROBLEM AS IT NEARS A DECISION TO HALT THE PACE OF RATE INCREASES.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

Isn't it amusing how all the devoted followers of the Fed, you know, the ones chanting "this is the 1970s all over again, wages drive inflation, inflation is here to stay, welcome to the new era of inflation," have conveniently changed their tune? They now stand before us with

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

To be clear. The Fed is late. The Private Sector growth is starting to deteriorate. Look at the Construction Data. Look at the Negative growth in Full Time Jobs. Why did they not cut should be the 1st Question put to Powell. I Disagree with the Consensus Wall Street view.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

2 months

The recent poor auctions for the UST serve as a warning for US policymakers. Unsustainable spending like drunken sailors will no longer be tolerated. The capital markets' response to Liz Truss's mini budget was a shot across the bow. If US policymakers do not heed these warnings,

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

1 year

@baystreetamber “The number of private sector employees was little changed in September..seeing little growth since June” StatCan.

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

4 months

Continuing claims not a surprise. The Fed is late. The thesis that Job Growth on the back of Part Time Job growth while Full Time Jobs decline is emblematic of a strong economy about to fade away. Just as the: this is the 1970’s, the Phillips Curve lives, Supply Chains will

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James E. Thorne

@DrJStrategy

3 months

The Federal Reserve's actions indirectly pressured the Bank of Japan to raise rates, resulting in the unwinding of the Yen carry trade in a highly leveraged environment. This situation could have been avoided if policymakers had exercised better judgment and not solely relied on

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