Housing starts drop to decade lows, home prices falling 5 years straight, and everyone worried about losing their job.
This was the aftermath of the 1990s recession in Canada.
It’s not different this time.
In February 1996, John Kenward (Canadian Home Builders’ Association)
Idiots: “Toronto is the New York of Canada”
RBC: “Canada is 30% less productive than the U.S. and closer to lower-income states like Alabama in terms of economic performance”
We’re literally being compared to fucking Alabama.
This one is tough to watch.
Within 1 year she bought a house, mortgage payments spiked, she lost her job, tried to sell but there were no buyers, then the bank foreclosed and took the keys.
She’s now being sued for the outstanding mortgage with no legal counsel.
The bank
🇨🇦BANK OF CANADA IS IN A BIND🔒
Canada’s economy is weakening quickly. Businesses are going bankrupt, unemployment is rising, and GDP per capita is abysmal.
For 13 years BoC held rates at 2% (or less) so Canadians grew addicted to cheap debt and took on a lot of it. Now that
🇨🇦 CANADIAN MORTGAGE TIME BOMB ⏰
A thread 🧵
Canadians are drowning in debt - $58 billion in lines of credit, $81 billion in auto loans, and $119 billion on credit cards. These forms of credit have relatively high interest rates, so when you fall behind on payments it’s
In the 1990s, Japan’s massive real estate bubble popped and it still hasn’t recovered.
It’s known as one of the largest real estate bubbles ever.
Canada is the orange line.
It’s literally twice as big.
🇨🇦 Where does all our tax money go?
Number of hospitals per capita in Canada are down 40% in 26 years.
Number of hospital beds per capita in Canada are down 63% in 45 years.
This country is declining in every measure.
New BoC study exposed another layer of the real estate Ponzi scheme.
Parents who mistakenly thought they were rich because their house went up in value took out HELOCs to gift to their kids and then co-signed their mortgage.
Without their parents these kids would have only
I had no idea CBC was capable of actually producing a thoughtful and coherent segment.
But, Andrew Chang absolutely nails this piece on Canada’s productivity crisis.
Canadian household debt is in a bubble, the BoC can’t cut rates fast enough to prevent the default cycle, and unemployment is trending higher through 2026.
Watch David Rosenberg red pill Amber Kanwar on the reality Canadians face in the years ahead.
@zerohedge
So you’re telling me it took 40 years to determine that aspartame is a carcinogen but the COVID jabs were good to go in a year flat?
The WHO is trash
Insolvencies are absolutely soaring in Ontario.
960 bankruptcies and 3717 proposals in April alone.
That’s +6.5% in a month and +34.3% in a year.
Ontario accounts for over one third of insolvencies across the country.
This data screams imminent job losses.
Canada is sitting on one of the largest housing bubbles of all time.
The biggest risk in Canadian real estate is not just the astronomical price to income ratio but rather the excessive leverage the entire market is built on.
As mortgages continue to renew at higher rates and
No quote necessary for this one.
Kevin O’Leary just dropping truth bombs for 4 minutes straight on how bad government policy is driving investment out of Canada.
@realpungao
@JackPosobiec
People just ate less and there was way more stigma around overweight women so they really starved themselves.
That’s it, that’s the secret. Eat less.
Condo supply in Ontario is almost literally off the charts.
In June, condo supply hit a new 14 year high of 6.6 months.
That’s a 1220% increase from the low in Jan 2022.
“Investors” are getting destroyed.
This is what people mean when they say Canada is in a productivity crisis:
- our economy is about where it was a decade ago when adjusted for inflation and immigration
- in 2000 we were on par with Australians but today they are 10% more productive and their economy has grown
In July working age population in Canada increased by 125,400 but the labour force shrank by 11,300.
Immigrants aren’t even working anymore b/c there’s no jobs - they’re just putting a strain on infrastructure and social programs.
It’s called a population trap.
Found another thing collapsing in Canada: Manufacturing Production.
Canada is simply not producing goods in any meaningful way and this problem continues to worsen.
There is no economy, the country runs on debt.
This won’t end well.
You might not know it yet but the crash is happening right now.
Deleveraging in Canada started in 2022 and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down.
This is exactly what happened in the U.S. leading up to, and during, the GFC - home prices collapsed as Americans deleveraged.
The lack of productivity in Canada today is worse than the 1980s recession, 1990s recession, and the Global Financial Crisis.
If you’re not concerned yet, it’s time to wake up.
🇨🇦 THE DECLINE OF CANADA 💣
A thread 🧵
Homelessness. Housing crisis. Mass immigration. Debt. Deficits. These are a few common terms often used when discussing Canada today. It’s no secret the country is deteriorating.
Many people blame Justin Trudeau and the Liberal policies
People can’t afford anything, data you have access to is fake, the free money era is over, and developers/capital are fleeing Canada for the U.S. due to excessive red tape.
Watch as Ross McCredie (CEO of Sutton Group Realty) red pills Andrew Bell on Canadian real estate.
🚩 In Canada, nearly 80% of settlement balances are held by 3 banks and they’re not lending it to the rest who only have collateral.
This is why the BoC is intervening in the overnight repo market, these other banks need cash fast.
This begs the question why the banks with
“People in Canada keep saying [the BoC] is gonna lower interest rates, that way my house price will go back up and it will all be sunny again - but, it’s gonna be very difficult”
“Countries that live beyond their means, like Canada does…have a tendency eventually to let
China, with a population of 1.4 billion and the second largest economy in the world, just experienced 9 consecutive quarters of falling home prices.
This is during a rate cutting cycle.
Canadians ain’t ready for this.
In 1990, 67% of credit liabilities in Canada were secured by real estate.
Today, that number is a staggering 80%.
We’re one of the richest countries in natural resources yet our “economy” revolves around the real estate Ponzi scheme.
How dumb is that?
This won’t end well.
A 0.25% rate cut saves you $72.37 on a $500k mortgage (or $144.73 on a $1m mortgage).
Meanwhile property taxes are doubling.
But ya, rate cuts will save everything.
More money is leaving Canada than is entering.
We lost $21.2B in March alone.
7 of the last 8 months saw a net outflow.
This is “capital flight”.
It reduces the strength of the economy, the government, and purchasing power of citizens.
It can lead to asset devaluation.
@WallStreetSilv
This is exactly what happens right before a deleveraging - increase taxes because you can’t pay off debt.
The problem is this actually causes debt burden to get worse because it reduces spending and incomes.
Next will be austerity, defaults, and job losses.
Insolvencies are absolutely soaring in Ontario.
960 bankruptcies and 3717 proposals in April alone.
That’s +6.5% in a month and +34.3% in a year.
Ontario accounts for over one third of insolvencies across the country.
This data screams imminent job losses.
Home sales in Ontario are in free fall.
Number of sales in July are -21% y/y and -49% from 3 years ago.
We haven’t seen a slower 12-month period in the past 14 years.
We’re now heading into the time of year when sales naturally fall as part of the seasonal cycle.
Expect
There has been a 714% increase in the number of single family homes for sale in Ontario since Jan 2022.
We’re now back above 2017 levels.
There’s no shortage.
@DschlopesIsBack
Scientist Dr. Lieber.
Joined China's Wuhan University of Technology in 2011 and was given a monthly salary of $50k plus $158k for living expenses.
Found guilty of making false statements to authorities, filing false tax returns and failing to report a Chinese bank account.
Bought in 2021 for $800k.
Secured a 3 year fixed rate mortgage at 3.2%.
Bank is now offering her 7.1% which translates to a leap from $3000 to $5100 per month.
Husband is working 70+ hours a week.
Daughter can’t save for university.
This is real life.
DELEVERAGING 🚨
Just how easy credit can escalate into a bubble, tightened credit can spiral into a depression.
As credit tightens it immediately decreases spending which causes incomes to fall. Job losses accelerate and debt repayments rise so borrowers get squeezed - they
A coal-fired power plant in China's Sichuan province.
China now emits more CO2 than the entire developed world combined—completely nullifying all the sacrifices you are being forced to make in the farcical push to achieve Net Zero.
Found another thing collapsing in Canada.
Personal finances are plummeting to 16 year lows.
Today is worse than the GFC and the plandemic and it’s not even close.
No wonder no one is buying houses anymore.
Wen recession?
50% of Canadians are concerned about paying their mortgage or rent.
62% are cutting spending to make ends meet.
49% are worried about losing their job.
Official gov’t numbers are fake, things are way worse in the real world.
Watch Andrew Bell get red pilled (again).
@ToewsWenda
Ok.
1. Cap federal spending
2. Promote free speech
3. Prevent UBI and digital currency
4. Incentivize building new homes
5. Introduce programs for foreign professionals (doctors specifically) to easily convert their credentials so they can practice in Canada
Canadians are tapped out.
Monthly sales are down in 7/8 sectors.
Consumer spending is what drives the economy.
When spending falls, incomes fall, jobs are lost, and people can’t pay off their debt.
This leads to deleveraging and falling asset values.
Looks like the immigration effect is wearing off.
Population in Ontario is +6% in 2 years yet retail sales are -2% in that same time frame.
The Ontario consumer is done.
“[The Bank of Canada] is gonna make the same mistake twice in different directions”
“In the next 12 months [the Bank of Canada] will be cutting rates pretty aggressively no matter what the Fed does and the fallout will be on the Canadian dollar”
- David Rosenberg (May 2, 2024)
Canada employment rate is down to 61.1%.
Lower than the lowest point during the GFC.
Back to 2001 dot-com bust levels.
Falling at a pace comparable to Canada’s lost decade.
Everything is not fine.
🇨🇦’s financial system may be just weeks away from a crisis.
It’s probably more lucrative to not explain this to you normies, but f*ck it—no one’s going to change the trajectory.
Let’s talk about 🇨🇦’s upcoming credit crunch. But first, a primer on credit.
<thread> 🧵👇
🇨🇦 CANADA’S DEBT CRISIS 🧨
A thread 🧵
Canadian consumers, businesses, and governments have been accumulating debt at an unsustainable pace for over a decade and it’s starting to come to a head.
Total debt in Canada (consumer, corporate, and government debt combined) has
This is what you call a rinsing of biblical proportions.
Peterborough only had 5 sales in June.
That’s down 97% from last year.
For comparison, the 14 year June average is 137 sales.
The Peterborough market is so far past dead it’s approaching extinction.
🦕 ☄️
🇨🇦 The “immigration-will-save-housing”narrative is crumbling.
Since 2000, Canada’s population is up ~33% yet number of mortgage approvals are flat.
Since 2008, population is up ~20% but number of homes sold is unchanged.
The housing market is ice cold 🥶
h/t
@HanifBayat
🚩 Since 2023 credit card debt is +20% while retail sales are -0.7%.
46% of Canadians aren’t paying off their credit card debt - 23% of them have an outstanding balance of 80%+ of their limit.
Consumers aren’t consuming, they’re in a debt trap.
All part of the cycle.
🇨🇦 Negative sentiment is on the rise in Canada.
Less and less Canadians are proud to be Canadian.
70% of Canadians feel the country is “broken”.
This is the sad reality that real life Canadians are facing.
People who blindly say “everything is fine” are in denial.
Canadian real estate price growth has been negative 4 consecutive months and the losses get bigger each month.
July prices contracted 4.2% y/y.
The 2024 spring market was an absolute bust, now we’re onto fall and winter.
The next leg down is under way.
It won’t be long now.
Idiots: “Toronto is the New York of Canada”
RBC: “Canada is 30% less productive than the U.S. and closer to lower-income states like Alabama in terms of economic performance”
We’re literally being compared to fucking Alabama.