100+ units in the bank this year
What a year this has been. Started this account by posting into the void as a way to hold myself accountable and am thankful for everyone who's been here along the way. Hopefully you've made some money as well.
Wake Forest ML -160 2u
WF/ECU u9 -120 2u
UNCW ML +180 1u
Tulane ML -140 2u
NCST ML -115 1.5u
LSU ML +105 1.5u
MSST ML +120 2u
Duke/San Diego/TN ML +122 1.5u
OKST/Duke ML -114 1u
TAMU/OU ML -109 1.5u
Oregon ML +114 1u
Regional Winners
Wake Forest -120 3u
MSST +160 2u
FSU +110 2u
OKST +115 2u
Kentucky -135 2u
TAMU -125 2u
Vanderbilt +175 1u
Arizona +190 2u
DBU +175 2u
(Lose 4u if WVU/GCU win, but net 1.8 or 1.5 if not)
Too many ? Maybe, but rolling with these for now, couple I may add later
Friday
TAMU/ECU ML -106 2.5u
TAMU/Wake Forest ML +129 2u
ECU/Wake Forest ML +104 1u
Troy ML -150 1.5u
OKST ML -166 1.5u
OKST/OU ML +117 1u
Oregon ML -135 2u
Kentucky ML -130 1u
Duke ML -160 1u
Evansville/TN o14 -115 1.5u
NCST ML +130 1.5u (Caesar's)
Florida ML +150 2u (Caesar's)
Oregon St ML +100 2u
Kstate +3.5 -115 3u
KState ML +210 1u
TAMU/TN/UNC/FSU ML +134 2.5u
Bigger card than I expected, but like the spots
@nicholas_earle
I'm jealous, went once years back when USM and ECU were both in CUSA.
Hope you get Yesavage-Burns
In the postseason, I tend to ride a hot team rather than trusting they turn the momentum around. More pro-WF than anti-ECU.
It also very well could lose, ~42% of my bets do
Super Regionals
NCST +120 2.5u
Oregon St +110 1u
Florida +163 1.5u (FD)
TAMU/FSU/TN -121 2u (Betrivers)
Basically riding with
@CrutchBets
on 3 of these
Couple interesting matchups here from
@NCAAInsiders
Really liked the a few of these dogs + the Junkyard Dawgs of La Tech before looking at the sims
*Don't think Farone is confirmed for Bama, but numbers were similar whether Farone or Hess*
Saw the board like Prime Helen Keller yesterday, -9u
Tough start to regionals but started last week -10u but was +15u by the end of the week, not counting conf. tourney futures
Hate it for those that are new to college baseball but am confident well get it back
+10.55u today, back to back 10u days
Nice make up for the -10u Thursday
Conference tournament futures looking great too, looking forward to some more of those with regionals next weekend
Best time of the year
CofC/UNCW u11.5 -115 1u
Arizona ML -160 2u
Duke ML -180 1.5u
Indiana St/San Diego ML +123 1.5u
Was planning on not doubling down on Arizona and just riding the +410 future but surprised by the price.
Also like OKST still but am just going to ride the future there
LaTech/MTSU is resuming top 9 with an 8-2 lead
Have laid a sizeable amount on -3.5 -105 and -345 ML
Just need MTSU not to double their game total in one half inning.
Worst they can do is void it
+4.68u here ✅ and cash the 2.5u play on NCST to win the Super Regional
Positive card all 4 days of Supers and +9.45u on Supers Futures too
Looking forward to playing with some of these new college markets too
Monday:
NCST/UGA u15.5 -110 1u (tailing
@CrutchBets
)
UGA tt u7.5 +105 1.5u
1st inning u1.5 runs -105 1u
Race to 7 Runs - Neither +425 .5u
NCST ML/u15.5 Game Parlay +320 .5u
Planned to ride my future, but playing these. Positive week secured either way, having a little fun
+11.15u day today, 10-2 on the initial card, 0-2 on live bets
The difference a day makes
Glad to have every game today played like it meant something. Hindsight, some caution likely should've been shown in the earlier rounds, regardless of matchups
Keeping it rolling tomorrow
+12.52u (10-1), almost +30u in the postseason so far (not counting futures, those are +20.9u)
Leaned Florida/early runs (maybe f5 tt over) when it was Jones, but don't think I want to fade Lamkin
Also SEC -150 to win CWS was FREE, upsetting BetRivers limited me to < 2u...
Idk if anyone else has seen this, but team totals, alternate totals/spreads, 1st inning lines, and f5 team totals are going to be HUGE if they're rolled out for the CWS
Sunday:
NCST ML +120 1.5u (Caesar's)
Duke/Clemson o12.5 -115 1.5u
Oregon St/UK u13.5 -115 2u
UNC/TAMU ML -133 2u (UNC was ML for yesterday - posted last night, not a re-bet, carrying over since it settles today)
Some longshot exactas I'm going to ride as official plays for a little fun
Florida to win Bracket 2 +600 1u (BetRivers)
On FD
Name the Finalists:
TN/UF +1800 0.5u
UNC/UF +2400 0.5u
UNC/TAMU +700 .5u
Final 4 Exacta:
UF/UNC/TAMU/TN +2400 .5u
UF/UK/UNC/TN +1800 .5u
Monday:
NCST/UGA u15.5 -110 1u (tailing
@CrutchBets
)
UGA tt u7.5 +105 1.5u
1st inning u1.5 runs -105 1u
Race to 7 Runs - Neither +425 .5u
NCST ML/u15.5 Game Parlay +320 .5u
Planned to ride my future, but playing these. Positive week secured either way, having a little fun
@nicholas_earle
ECU's also played worse than their recent record indicates. Some recent wins have only been so bc of massive comebacks I don't think happen vs a team the caliber of WF, only vs Rice/Wichita St
Seeing the pirates break the Omaha curse would be great for the sport though, no doubt
UF was inevitable, finally playing to their potential. Should’ve just ridden out the future in hindsight
Really want to fade Clemson next week but know as soon as I do, UF going to start pitching like they have all year
I know WLS hasn't been as sharp last few weeks, but unless there's an injury that was hidden from the camera, Cliff Godwin is a fucking idiot for going to the freshman w 5IP all year there in the ninth...
I hate ECU fans and even I feel bad for them... Even moreso for Yesavage
Thursday
UNC ML -135 1u
La Tech ML -135 2u
UGA ML -166 1u
Alabama ML -115 2u
MSST/USM ML +109 2u
MSST/OKST ML -106 2u
OKST/Clemson ML -115 2.5u
NCST ML +154 1u
Arizona St ML -105 1.5u
Arizona ML +100 1u
Couple spreads and maybe a total or two to add tomorrow
Some 4 seeds I may be trying to back on a 4-5+ run line Friday
Penn
#Quakeshow
Niagara - primarily depends if OKST pitches off Holiday/Garcia/Benge. I assume Benge goes though?
Stetson - 40 win 4 seed? Only if No Arnold
Oral Roberts - Jakob Hall is a study
Bryant
Tuesday
Clemson ML -145 2.5u
Cincinnati ML +100 1.5u
Grand Canyon ML -166 1.5u
USC ML -160 1u
JMU ML +210 1u
Campbell ML +170 1u
Eyeing a few totals as well tomorrow once they drop
+2.31u
Tough to complain about crossing 80u on the year
Hindsight = should've laid off TN/FSU, conflicting thoughts of fading Arnold, but questioning TN's arms and power woudl translate. Too many walks and errors both ways, sloppy game after a gem between UNC and UVA
Outside of Josh Willingham or Sergio Romo, the only thing I think of when I hear UNA Baseball is them beating Ole Miss on Kid's day back in 2019
@11point7
Bases loaded no outs and OKST going to choke it down 2, ugh...
Have to get more than 1 there with 2-3-4 due up
Have the approach of ECU right there, daddy hacks only
CofC/UNCW u11.5 -115 1u
Arizona ML -160 2u
Duke ML -180 1.5u
Indiana St/San Diego ML +123 1.5u
Was planning on not doubling down on Arizona and just riding the +410 future but surprised by the price.
Also like OKST still but am just going to ride the future there
@11point7
Should find a way to set up betting odds for the number of rain delays during the week or what time the "8 pm" game Tuesday will actually start
Nice +5.9u day to end conference tournaments
Went up 14.79u this week and an additional 15.1u on tournament champions
Good momentum into regionals, but as with all ups, there are plenty of downs looming around the corner, hopefully they stay away until the end of June though
Tuesday
Austin Peay ML -120 1.5u
MSST ML -130 2u
Texas ML -160 1.5u
Duke ML -140 2u
more to come later, some may be closer to first pitch once SP are announced, looking forward to the smaller conference games too
Some nuggets on Jamie Arnold
Elite stuff, 0 doubt in my mind, but he's not been elite vs quality competition. He bullies the Pitt/Miami's of the ACC + soft Non-Con.
Started the year with 4 scoreless outings in Non-con and had a 1.32 ERA through 9 starts (5 ACC) in Mid-April
@JoeSm1thh
Post-international travel/don't be a prisoner of the moment. Didn't know you were Joe Public when it came to CFB now.
Know nothing about GaSt but that enough is reason for me to lay off
I do casually bet CFB (Much smaller, but still positive years the L2) and at a much smaller unit size than I use for college baseball, so definitely won’t be tweeting plays like this but may be around to interact with those who do as well.
Saturday
WVU ML -130 3u
Arkansas ML -166 2.5u
USM/Oregon St ML +114 2u
MSST/Oregon St ML +115 2u
Samford ML -180 1u
OKST ML -160 2u
Oklahoma ML +120 1.5u
KState/KU u10 -115 2u
Good bounce back yesterday, +7.5u
Unsure if I'm playing anything or riding out my exacta future of UNC/TN and UF/TAMU at 24/1
I do like both dogs today, but weather looks like shit too, and hate betting on rain delays
Cam Smith > Seaver King -135 1u
Janek > Lomavito -120 1u
Santucci > Prager -150 2u
Slade Caldwell > PJ Morlando -125 2u
Kurtz > Tibbs -115 1u
I’m no MLB/Draft sharp, S/O to
@_JohnnyVTV
@CalvinSmith05
@JakeFetnerCBS
for putting me onto a few of these over the past few weeks too
Seeing Luke Holman confirmed on the bump today, so I’ll be joining the party at the Box
LSU ML -166 1u
LSU/Ark ML +102 2u
Guess Jay Johnson really was ducking Hagen Smith 😳
@_JohnnyVTV
Ehhh, Irvine is the better club, but, I would be astonished if UCSB wins the BigWest (and better RPI) and Irvine hosts
Arizona doesn't have a shot bc RPI, I think they're better than UCSB, but 39 RPI is too low. Maybe if they Sweep Utah and Oregon St, but I doubt that happens.
+9.45u (5-1) on Super Regional futures here
Futures have been a money printer in these tournaments, +15 in conference tournaments, -3 on regionals, but +9 here
Super Regionals
NCST +120 2.5u
Oregon St +110 1u
Florida +163 1.5u (FD)
TAMU/FSU/TN -121 2u (Betrivers)
Basically riding with
@CrutchBets
on 3 of these
Free entertainment today, +0.2u
Gross B9 loss on the WVU under, and where the fuck was this staff when I faded Uconn w Duke ? Lmao, was a week late to that party
Really like some spots for tomorrow
@Giaco22100
@nicholas_earle
-120 is close enough for me personally.
Also depends on your hit rates. If avg odds are +150 and you hit 50% of the time, that's great. But if something hits 70% of the time, only need -200ish to be profitable.
Initial leans for college lines are NCST +120, Oregon St +103, WVU +200, K State +215, UF +144 and possibly a TAMU/FSU parlay
NCST and OrSt I feel pretty locked into, but only betting WVU/KSt if its Clark/Wentworth, Wentworth likely to go G2, UF if its Smith/Darden for Clemson
ULL ML +110 1.5u
Nebraska ML +110 1.5u
La Tech ML -140 1u
South Carolina/Duke ML -106 2.5u
USM ML -145 2u
UCSB/TN/Kentucky/Oregon St ML +114 2u
UGA/TN/TAMU/Kentucky/UNC/Arkansas/OKST ML -132 1u
@octagon310
Saw 2-1 with bases loaded B1, thought it was going to be a shootout, but yeah, that's always my hesitancy with Vandy, they have the arm talent, their arms just never perform to expectation. Same with their bats too, no Louisville midweek arm should've held them to 4
@CalvinSmith05
shocked if Link Jarret doesn't even make a decision until Arnold throws his bullpen today or tomorrow
Just think FSU can't afford an extra game and 2 games vs Stetson and Uconn don't give me exuberant confidence in Dorsey to run him out there in essentially a must win game
Friday's plays
Kansas ML +100 2u
Kentucky ML -110 1u
Clemson ML -140 1.5u
Arkansas/Arizona ML -104 2u
Ark/TAMU/Wake ML +143 2u
Will have more out later
Duke walks 4 in a row and reliever gives up a bomb... Thought they'd use some of the arms that are worth a damn... Guess they're happy as a 2 seed next weekend, brutal
Has to be the most unathletic attempted steals of home I've seen
After one of the most unathletic slides into third by ECU trying to tag on a ball in front of them
Always depending on the price, but some 2/3 seeds I'll be trying to target
Wake
Duke
MSST
LSU
San Diego
Vandy
One seeds
Arkansas
TAMU
OK St (Cags day would need to be accounted for)
Kentucky
@nicholas_earle
I actually have futures on ECU to make Omaha I placed beginning of the year. I just think that bullpen outside WLS is going to struggle beyond their first two games, especially in a small park and vs a team who drives the ball as well as WF.
Couple exceptionally weak regionals in Athens, Fayetteville, and Tallahassee
Really tough ones in Stillwater, Tucson, Santa Barbara and Knoxville (especially for the overall
#1
)
Interesting tidbit I found looking at old brackets doing some research on ballpark score trends
No team outside of the 1-4 seed in the SEC tournament has won it since 2012 when MSST did it as a 7 seed.
The extra game off is obviously an advantage, but shocked it was that stark
In case anyone cares. Threw a couple darts at Bazzana 4th +300, 5th 25/1 and JJW 5th +700
Couldn’t get myself to bet minus odds for exact draft spots so laid off a couple of the others.
Any draft sharps out there
With Bazzana likely going 1.1 and Condon -300 1.2, think there’s value with JJW somewhere but not sure where
Haven’t placed anything on these but any thoughts?
Friday Plays
Mississippi State ML +110 2.5u
Georgia Southern ML +110 1.5u
Arkansas/Duke/Wake Forest ML +144 2u
Wake Forest/Arkansas ML -120 2u
Oklahoma ML -150 1.5u
UCLA ML -115 1u
Last time no team from the State of Mississippi, Alabama, or Louisiana hosted a regional?
2011, here's the field from that year when South Carolina won it all