CEO & CIO of Mainstay Capital Management, LLC. Tweet content is not investment advice. For personal advice, contact MCM. Retweets & Likes are not endorsements.
This is when it all went south. Jerome Powell mistakenly heard that markets were higher and he proceeded to read a greatest hits of hawkish comments, including comments that were in direct contradiction to the FOMC official statement released earlier.
The pivotal moment in
#Fed
press conference:
When (incorrectly) told the market had reacted positively, Jerome Powell seems frustrated and lists ONLY reasons why this is the wrong interpretation.
Very telling for
#stocks
.
$QQQ $SPY
#macro
#inflation
“In Brazil, a group of people doing CrossFit passed by outside a restaurant, but those eating thought they were running away from something and decided to run away with them”
When the
#Fed
uses the Fed Funds Rate to tighten, they put the strain on Main Street. When they use the balance sheet, they put the strain on Wall Street. Guess which one they have been using?
More capital flowed into global equities in the past year than the total of all previous 19 years combined. If you were wondering where all that Fed liquidity ended up that was created over the past 20 months, there’s your answer.
Just to put things into perspective: Global inflows into equities have surpassed $1tn in the past year, exceeding the combined total from the past 19 years, Goldman has calculated.
Second worst start to a year in history for the S&P 500 Index. This is a generational moment for stocks and bonds performing so badly together in 2022.
Like it or not, believe it or not, central bank liquidity (particularly the Fed) has become the single most important factor in pushing stocks higher. If the rate of current QE continues, fundamentals can never catch up to stock prices inflated by so much money supply.
Just to put things into perspective. S&P500’s all-time high driven mainly by global liquidity which hit an all-time high as well this week. The
#Fed
's balance sheet alone has risen by $30bn past week, total assets of
#ECB
by $12bn.
This is the true irony in all this hawkish Fed talk. We have rate hike bidding wars. A Fed president calling for a pause in rate hikes that haven’t even started. But, the ONLY ACTION right now by the Fed is continuing QE, even after last week’s FOMC meeting. Keep that in mind.
2/2
Market pricing is not close to a 50bps hike (orange)
How screwed up is Fed policy when they are STILL DOING QE (!), another $30B in Feb, while Fed talk is about hiking 50 in March!
One foot still on the gas while debating when to use the other foot to slam on the brake.
Valuations don’t matter. Earnings don’t matter. Fundamentals don’t matter. Stock returns are being driven by one primary force right now - Fed liquidity.
American families are cutting their food budgets mostly by changing the types and brands of food they've bought, but food bank usage and skipped meals are also on the rise.
Yesterday's JOLTs data - plus consumer confidence - has some worried about a faster pace of labor-market deterioration.
@MacroClaus
wrote "Bye bye soft landing, it was nice knowing you." The hiring rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest in over a decade if you exclude peak pandemic months
#EngageUIC
is the largest student stock pitch competition & conference in the world. American Beacon is banned from participating in this conference. This conference is about teaching students about leadership in our industry.
@AmBeacon
has no place teaching students anything.
FOX News has re-signed Anchor & Global Markets Editor
@MariaBartiromo
to a new multiyear deal.
“FOX News and FOX Business have afforded me the opportunity to grow as a journalist and stretch myself in ways I’ve never imagined. I look forward to many more incredible years ahead.”
Why do some investors believe the
#Fed
will rollover on rate hikes?
#Powell
said that
#inflation
is the priority. And, inflation is at 8.5%. They may hike us right into into a recession or bear market or both. But, they are definitely hiking rates. A lot.
This is my friend Seth. He is an Olympic Athlete. He is a Special Forces combat veteran. He sustained lifelong injuries fighting for our country. Now, he is working to help those left behind in Afghanistan. He is a true American Patriot.
Generative A.I. will upend the workforce, McKinsey says, forcing 12 million job switches and automating away 30% of hours worked in the U.S. economy by 2030
An epic rout in the bond market indeed. I just penned a report to clients on why we have avoided interest rate sensitive bonds. The carnage since the beginning of 2022 alone has been staggering.
the 10-year yield is up 30bps since late Monday (36 hours). This is becoming an epic rout in the bond market (on a total return basis).
When do we start asking about financial stability concerns?
#CPI
and
#PPI
came in better than expected.
#Inflation
is on a glidepath to the Fed’s target. How much will they cut rates in September? What should investors do right now? Tune in to Bloomberg to find out during my discussion with
@adsteel
and
@ptsweeney
on Thursday morning.
Here,
@elerianm
, highly critical of recent Fed policy, calls for the
#Fed
to Go Beyond Doubling Its Taper Rate this week. Markets are going to move massively on Wednesday.
100-year
#bond
. That’s a lot of
#duration
hitting you hard in this rising rate environment. Yes, you can see a bond investment cut in half in less than 3 months!
The global energy crisis continues, as
#energy
use is rationed in
#European
countries. Yes, This is what it has come to in modern times. Developed countries without enough energy.
My good friend
@KennyPolcari
is the very best
@NYSE
tour guide. Here he is giving a tour of the
#NYSE
to a group of high school students. He has also helped with my college student investment conferences over the years. The world needs more Kenny Polcari’s.
Honored to have been a guest several times in the best quarter for
@FoxBusiness
. Pleased to be on at 6 am ET Wednesday with
@MariaBartiromo
to kick off the new quarter!
There are many financial services companies that partner with me in my philanthropy in providing experiential learning for students. I choose these companies because of their standard of excellence in what they do. American Beacon falls far short of that standard.
@AmBeacon
#EngageUIC
is the largest student stock pitch competition & conference in the world. American Beacon is banned from participating in this conference. This conference is about teaching students about leadership in our industry.
@AmBeacon
has no place teaching students anything.
Policies that are not communicated. Something acceptable one day and then a problem a problem later. Terrible internal and external communication at American Beacon. Avoid
@AmBeacon
#investment
products.
Warning for RIAs and brokers: Avoid American Beacon products. Their communication and operations are the worst in our experience. Avoid a headache, by avoiding
@AmBeacon
!
American Beacon is a train wreck. Do not learn the hard way like
@MainstayCapital
did.
@AmBeacon
,through their negligence,has created serious problems. Heed my advice. Stay clear of this train wreck of a company.
Warning for RIAs and brokers: Avoid American Beacon products. Their communication and operations are the worst in our experience. Avoid a headache, by avoiding
@AmBeacon
!
Recession worries, yen carry trade unwind, and more to unpack. What’s the right investment strategy now? Find out in my discussion with
@LizClaman
on Thursday’s
@ClamanCountdown
on
@FoxBusiness
.
Catch our CEO, David Kudla, with
@LizClaman
on
@FoxBusiness
@ClamanCountdown
this Thursday, August 8th at 3:55 pm ET. Tune in for insights on the markets and his investment strategy!
Spot on. So many (and
@elonmusk
) think $TSLA owns EVs, autonomous, ride sharing... Honda teamed up with GM on EV battery modules and autonomous. Now this with VW and Ford. The future belongs to the strong and stable, not a sleep deprived, stock manipulator. $TSLAQ
Let's repeat, inflation is last year's problem. We've been saying this all year.
Meaning, this year's problem could be the economy, that's why it is so important the Fed recognizes this and starts to cut.
Tune in to your favorite business network on Wednesday, March 21st, to catch our CEO,
@David_Kudla
, ringing the closing bell at the
@Nasdaq
Stock Exchange.
CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. gasoline inventories have now dropped outside the seasonal range for 2015-2020, with 4-week rolling average demand holding above 9.3 million b/d (above pre-covid levels) |
#OOTT
Soft landing, recession, inflation? Our outlook on the economy, markets, and investment strategy for the remainder of 2024 in my discussion with Taylor
@RiggsReport
and
@DanGreenhaus
Wednesday at 3 pm ET on
@FoxBusiness
.
The worst thing you can do is find out you took on too much risk for your tolerance when you are 15% or 20% into a pullback and then panic and go to cash near the bottom, then afraid to get reinvested, “until things look better”.
"It’s important for people to take a step back and just look at their portfolios and assess what their personal risk tolerance is”
@David_Kudla
via
@detroitnews
@BreanaCNoble
Warning for RIAs and brokers: Avoid American Beacon products. Their communication and operations are the worst in our experience. Avoid a headache, by avoiding
@AmBeacon
!
Prepping for my segment this morning on
@MariaBartiromo
’s show. Be sure to tune in at 8:20 am ET on
@FoxBusiness
for our discussion on the markets, Fed, economy, and of course, $TSLA
This is their problem and trap
@dlacalle_IA
. Why on earth would a central bank be tapering as growth is slowing. They taper, stocks fall, reverse wealth effect takes effect, economy slows even faster. This will not go well and the
#Fed
will reverse course, as in the past.
Our CEO, David Kudla, joined
@ptsweeney
and
@adsteel
for a
@BloombergRadio
discussion on the financial markets, corporate earnings, and where investors may be able to find opportunities.
Catch David's insights in the link below.
We are working with exceptional students, professors, and administrators at the University of Michigan on the world’s largest annual student stock pitch competition and conference -
#EngageUIC
. Join us Oct 12-14.
@engage_iies
@UMich
@MichiganRoss
Bitcoin has embarked on an enduring rally on PayPal and further institutional acceptance.
@MarkYusko
and other
#Bitcoin
bulls will be proven right over the long-term.
An excellent summation of where
#bitcoin
is, why it is doing what it’s doing, and it’s unique characteristics. Check out this excellent interview from my partner
@MarkYusko
at Morgan Creek Digital below🔥🚀🔥
It’s a good day when you open up Barrons and see your new National ranking as an investment advisor has improved on one page and the announcement for the student investment conference you sponsor on the other page.
Catch our CEO,
@David_Kudla
, Tuesday on Bloomberg at 2:15 PM ET for a discussion on
@GM
earnings and an outlook for General Motors and the auto industry.