Creator: "Freaks In The Spreadsheets" PDF fantasy guide | Rookie Fantasy Z-score | Thru32 Team Projections |
#MatchupsInMotion
| 2020
#1
WR Ranker
@FantasyPros
Final FREE access to Freaks In The Spreadsheets guide as draft season wraps up!👇
- Thru32 team projections, dynasty rookie ranks, redraft cheatsheet, Underdog roster construction & import ranks, & NFL szn bets
Come get a taste 🤓
PDF link here:
1/#
Invested $4,700 in fantasy leagues this year.
Cashing out $4,800.
Don't know exact time invested but it's gotta be over 300+ hours included drafting.
Working with about 30 cents/hr profit.
Built different* 😤
* = read as pathetic
Jaxon Smith-Njigba runs an unofficial 4.53 at 196 lbs
Twitter: "Cool. That'll work."
Jordan Addison runs an official 4.49 at 173 lbs
Twitter: "Okay I guess, not great but fine."
Quentin Johnston runs an unofficial 4.50 at 212 lbs
Twitter: "OOF omg slowwwww trassssshhhhh"
There was a time in my life where I took Robert Woods instead of Cooper Kupp in every draft that both were available.
That time was a month ago and I would love to stop feeling like an idiot tonight.
The best part about this rookie WR draft class is currently draft capital was a bad predictor, film grades were a bad predictor, and analytics were a bad predictor.
Rookie leaders after 4 weeks:
1) Puka Nacua
2) Tank Dell
.....
100 miles of shit
.....
JSN & QJ
Hearing the Jets are offering picks 4, 10, 35, 38, 69, Zach Wilson, Elijah Moore, Quinnen Williams, Jordan Whitehead, the Iron Bank, King Midas' gold, the Sorcerer's Stone, and Joe Flacco in a package for Deebo Samuel.
It's close, but the 49ers are leaning towards no.
Not often you see a team lose their young starting QB for the year, and then say:
"Alright, NOW it's time to go all in for the Superbowl!"
and start trading away picks for a premier RB.
Chatting with my wife yesterday..
Me: I've got 4 drafts next week, can't wait!
Her: How long do these things take again?
Me: 2-3 hours depending on the draft type.
Wife: I f*cking hate this time of year.
😆 Here's to the significant others that put up with this game we play!
The Buffalo Bills are my sneaky bet to win the Super Bowl.
Top-5 defense, great trenches both sides of the ball, added Diggs and Moss to the offense. Just need Josh Allen to take the next step and this is an incredible team.
Ravens updated offensive depth chart:
QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Lamar Jackson
WR1: Lamar Jackson
WR2: Lamar Jackson
TE: Mark Andrews
LT: Lamar Jackson
LG: Lamar Jackson
C: Lamar Jackson
RG: Lamar Jackson
RT: Lamar Jackson
Last year, I introduced a new metric called “Interview Scores” - a measure of intangibles beyond stats or film.
The highest score was Garrett Wilson. He won OROY.
The lowest score was Jameson Williams. He just got suspended 6 games.
Maybe it’s even better than we thought.
Introducing RB Yards Created through analytics! 💪📈
The purpose of this process was to see if we can measure each RB's ability to create on their own. As such, it was adjusted for O-line blocking, % vs stacked fronts, yards before/after contact, etc.
2019 list here 👇
(1/3)
Interview Scores return for its 3rd season!
Reminder that this metric is strictly for fantasy football purposes, attempting to measure "intangibles" as they relate to fantasy points.
Overall this is an extremely impressive class compared to years past - YLTSI
Some notes:
1/7
As everyone loses their minds this preseason, remember these "key takeaways" from LAST year's preseason.
Pure madness.
*Terrace Marshall highest graded WR.*
*Marquez Callaway dominance.*
*Trey Sermon lead 49ers back.*
*Ja'Marr Chase might lose snaps to Auden Tate.*
Dove deep into 4+ years of interviews on WR prospects over the past few months, these are my takeaways.
Disclaimer: I have no credentials whatsoever for these evaluations. I'm a data nerd, hoping to discover more data points.
RB finishes of the worst NFL team in the league last 5 years:
2020: Jags - JRob - RB7
'19: Bengals - Mixon - RB13
'18: Cards - Dav Johnson - RB10
'17: Browns - Crowell - RB30
'16: Browns - Crowell - RB14
4/5 higher than RB15... but since the Lions MIGHT suck so must Swift?!?!?
Matchups In Motion: Week 5
- Montgomery another SMASH setup
- Vegas continues to beat the drum for a Bengals bounceback game
- Consecutive Trevor Lawrence fade matchups continues for 3rd straight week
- Have your Jets finally take flight!
#MatchupsInMotion
Yearly reminder that there is a major red flag to avoid for Running Back prospects: extremely low broken/missed tackle rate.
Here's your list for the 2023 class.
Buyer beware
RB Yards Created Through Analytics - 2021 Review! 🏃♂️
In it's 3rd szn, this aims to credit each RB for the yards made "on his own" by adjusting for offensive line yards, stacked front %, yards before/after contact, etc.
2021 list here 👇
We have a new rushing king 👑
2022 Rookie Wide Receiver Z-Scores are live!!🧐
This comprehensive, analytic grade aims to collect the BEST metrics available for predicting career success.
Really proud of how my cornerstone project has evolved in accuracy in it's 4th season.
Full article below 👇:
(1/3)
Matchups In Motion: Week 6
- Mostert gets a godsend of a matchup PLUS extra volume from Achane injury
- Bengals pass catchers are plus plays back to back weeks!
- First time Monty has been on FADE list all year (DFS only)
- His Kupp Overflows
#MatchupsInMotion
Fantasy twitter told me Javonte Williams' knee gruesomely tore apart and his tendons disintegrated and all that remains are microscopic threads of cotton barely holding his knee together...
How can he be participating in OTAs in MAY???
Zach Wilson is the most glaring buy QB in SF leagues, based on improved surroundings alone.
Improved O-line, reset to healthy WR room, more help likely coming in the draft with 4 top-40 picks.
Jets doing everything they can to make him succeed year 2.
Kayshon Boutte allegedly didn’t do much to hide his illegal gambling.
While placing more than 8,900 bets while underage (including some on his LSU football team) he used accounts with the username “kayshonboutte7” and “kayshonboutte01” according to the affidavit.
My model projects 3 backups to overtake the previously entrenched starting RBs this year:
1. Tony Pollard > Ezekiel Elliott
2. AJ Dillon > Aaron Jones
3. Kenneth Gainwell > Miles Sanders
Good fantasy players that folks love to hate:
QBs
- Jalen Hurts
- Kirk Cousins
- Carson Wentz
RBs
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Melvin Gordon
- Myles Gaskin
WRs
- Mike Evans *guilty*
- Amari Cooper
- Adam Thielen
TEs
- Mike Gesicki
"Buy low on all the guys I liked before the season started who disappointed week 1 and sell high on all the guys I disliked before the season who did well week 1."
2020 RB Fantasy Z-scores are live!
This analysis gives a comprehensive grade scale of Rookie RBs, consisting of:
- Draft Capital
- Athleticism Score
- College Production (adj for competition)
- Yards Created
- Offensive Line
- Landing Spot
Full article below: 👇
(1/2)
If Gainwell holds off both a healthy Penny and healthy Swift for majority touches in games played together, I will change my profile pick to a clown for a full year.
Diontae Johnson had the 5th most targets per game of all WRs last year.
That's more than Calvin Ridley, Allen Robinson, Tyreek Hill, Terry McLaurin.
ADP at WR28.
RB Yards Created Through Analytics - 2020 Recap 🧐
In what has become a staple for measuring RB performance, this adjusts YPC for O-line blocking, % carries vs 8+ front, yards before/after contact, etc.
Derrick Henry 👑and Nick Chubb 💪consistently top-3 each year😤
(1/3)
The two highest Interview Score WRs of this class (Worthy & Pearsall) just went to the Chiefs and the Niners - earlier than their draft props😅
And the lowest Interview Score WR (Adonai)- who had a draft prop of 23 overall - just fell out of the 1st round 🤔
Best metric ever?!?
Interview Scores return for its 3rd season!
Reminder that this metric is strictly for fantasy football purposes, attempting to measure "intangibles" as they relate to fantasy points.
Overall this is an extremely impressive class compared to years past - YLTSI
Some notes:
1/7
2021 WR Fantasy Z-Scores have arrived!
A holistic view of rookie WRs looks into the following categories to give long term PPG projections:
- Draft Capital
- Early Declare
- Team Adj Market Share
- Career Production
- Breakout Age
- Hand Size
Full article and history below👇
*NFL player rises in value*
Dynasty guy: "Great opportunity to sell! Imagine holding him, lololol"
Redraft guy: "Ugh, I don't know if I can spend a 3rd round pick on him. So conflicted!"
BestBall guy: "Haha suckers! I already drafted him on 286 rosters at a discount! Money!!!"
Treylon Burks and David Bell led their respective teams in receiving yards from the moment they started.
Imagine walking onto the field your freshman season and outplaying your teammates for your entire collegiate career.
Unreal.
I would like more reports on how Treylon Burks is completely out of shape and has the lung capacity of baby bird so his ADP can keep falling please and thank you.
Take it from a guy who learns from his mistakes.
In 2021, I overlooked Rashod Bateman’s team pass volume for his talent.
In 2022, I overlooked Treylon Burks’ team pass volume for his talent.
In 2023, I won’t overlook DJ Moore’s team pass volume for his clear talent.
Well this is funny.
List of the first, early declare, WR taken in each 2nd round of the NFL Draft over the last 6 years.
2016 - Michael Thomas
2017 - Curtis Samuel
2018 - Christian Kirk
2019 - AJ Brown
2020 - Tee Higgins
2021 - Elijah Moore
Not bad
2022 - WanDale Robinson 👀
Way-too-early Fantasy Z-Score rankings of 2022 rookies without Film Grades, Combine metrics/measurables, and mock draft in place of actual draft capital:
RBs:
1) B. Hall
2) K. Walker
3) K. Williams
4) I. Spiller
WRs:
1) T. Burks
2) D. London
3) G. Wilson
4) D. Bell
5) J. Dotson
Always thought the "WR avalanche" drafts were a myth...
I got caught in my first real one today after starting RobustRB... and let me tell you that it is pure, unfiltered, miserable torture.
Interview Scores are back for the 2023 rookie WRs. After beating out final szn YPRR last year, it's worth seeing if we can up the predictiveness (goal of > 0.25 correl to ppg).
Zay pulling a G. Wilson with the only perfect score in class. It's impossible not to love him.
1/3
Some favorite dynasty targets - price options I'd pay:
DJ Moore - DK, Godwin, 1.01
Bateman - 1.02, McLaurin, Marquise
Bobby Trees - Sutton, any 2nd
Gibson - Akers
Etienne - 1.04, Zeke
CEH - 1.06, Miles
Zach Wilson - Tua, 1.01 (SF)
Kyle Pitts - the world
Quentin Johnston film grades from industry leaders among the 2023 rookies:
- PFF -> WR1
- Lance Zierlein w/ NFL dot com -> WR5
- Scouts inc -> WR1
- DynastyNerds -> WR5 or lower (via pod)
Insane variance - every film grader sees something drastically different.
Matchups In Motion: Week 1
Returning for our 3rd season, this handy quick reference guide for sit/starts, DFS, & pickems makes decisions easier.
- Baker/Godwin/Evans a sneaky stack?
- Olave & MT should light it up
- Najee haters may get rewarded... for now
#MatchupsInMotion
It's here 👀
'Freaks In The Spreadsheets' 2023 fantasy guide is now live!
🔹Dynasty Rookie Ranks (Fantasy Z-score)
🔹Full player projections (Thru32 projections)
🔹Bestball Theory
🔹Model Building Processes
🔹Rankings Cheatsheets
FREE link here:
RB Javonte Williams had an absolutely stunning broken tackle rate of 47% his final year. That's the highest I've seen recorded.
So as a defender, that means there was about a 50/50 chance your ass was on the grass on contact as he runs by or through you.
JWill might be good.
WRs drafted by pick 80 with >32.5" arms & >9.5" hands since 2013:
DeAndre Hopkins
Keenan Allen
Odell Beckham
Mike Evans
Juju SS
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Brandon Aiyuk
Treylon Burks
Christian Watson
QUENTIN JOHNSTON
Conley & Funchess too but that wouldn't confirm my priors
Earlier this week was WRs, now onto RBs!
2022 Rookie RB Fantasy Z-Scores 🤓
Once again, this utilizes some of the most reliable metrics I could find: College Production Adj for team strength, Film Grades, Athleticism, Draft Cap, and Landing Spot
Full article below 👇
(1/3)
"Kyren's their guy, Kyren is Sean's guy. If (Sean) could sign himself over to be Kyren's godfather, he would."
"Demarcus Robinson looks like he's aging in reverse... he is locked in as the
#3
"
Some interesting nuggets from
@JourdanRodrigue
I believe the 2023 RB class is better than the 2020 RB class (JT, etc.) and below the 2017 RB class (CMC, Dalvin, etc.).
But the fact that it ranks in the range of those two in the early stages of the Fantasy Z-Score means it will reshape the entire RB landscape in dynasty IMO
Colts RB depth chart behind Jonathan Taylor:
- Evan Hull (2 career touches)
- Tyler Goodson (19 career touches)
- Trey Sermon (84 career touches)
I've never projected someone for 100% RB share of a backfield but might have to make an exception this year.
So Vikings are reportedly cutting Dalvin Cook, lost Kendricks and others on DEF, then traded away pass rusher Smith…
That means a poor defense got worse, lesser running game, and a plethora of top tier passing weapons.
Time to set the record for pass rate in a season.
If you’re fading Swift because of the bad team narrative, please remember that the Panthers had win totals of 5, 5, and 7 past 3 seasons.
CMC is 0% affected by a “bad team”
Fantasy Z-Scores for the 2024 rookies are live!
For those new, I summarize every metric that matters for both RB/WRs (such SRS/SOS adj production, industry film grades, efficiency stats, etc.) and give an expected 3 year PPG output. Details in the article below.
Summaries here:
RB Yards Created Through Analytics - 2022 recap!
Returning for its 4th szn, this metric aims to measure what a RB can "create on his own" by adjusting for O-line play, stacked front %, yards after contact, etc.
The list 👇
Nick Chubb -> top-3 finalist for 4 YEARS straight🤯
Narratives I DON'T believe for 2022:
- Rondale Moore due for major target increase
- WAS drafts a Day 2 RB
- Akers to be a bellcow *evergreen*
- Marquise Brown to repeat 120+ targets (146 in '21)
- Metcalf/Lockett being overvalued
- CEH is complete dust
"He's not big enough to be a workhorse!!" - he shouts from the rooftops when dogging a "undersized" running back prospect.
The top-2 overall RBs in fantasy this year:
1. Ekeler - 200 lbs
2. CMC - 205 lbs
🫠🫠🫠
Trying my eyes at film grades for fantasy.
These are very likely to be horrific in my pilot year, but my personal film grades as of today (min. 3 games per).
*If you're a film savant and see a hard disagree, please explain in detail the "why" please & thank you*
DJ Moore has the Falcons this week...
The pass-funnel Falcons defense that has some of the worst secondary in the league...
It is make or break time, and anything less than 15-20 fantasy points would be a massive disappointment.
Rookie RB Fantasy Z-Scores return for their FIFTH season! 🥳🎉
This comprehensive breakdown tells us what matters most in RB evaluation:
- Draft Capital
- Athleticism
- College Production adj. for team & opp strength
- Film Grades (most accurate sources)
- Landing Spot
1/4
Kenneth Walker finished as the RB16 last year with added volume help of a Penny injury...
Then the Seahawks drafted Charbonnet in RND 2 and JSN RND 1 to get even more players involved in their offense.
Naturally he's now being drafted higher as the RB15 this year.