Arbor Data Science @DataArbor Twitter profile

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 month

A breakdown of Retirement Assets in Q1 2024 by type. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

Preliminary numbers for the University of Michigan survey paint a grim picture for consumers. Buying conditions for durables, homes, and vehicles are the worst in decades.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey found buying conditions for durable goods, homes, and vehicles are at their worst since 1980.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

7 months

Global Container shipping rates have surged 122% since Nov 2023, driven by delays and rerouting from the Red Sea. The composite rate per 40-ft container increased $705 week over week (thru 1/18/24) to $3,777. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 months

In April 2024, the U.S. Rental Vacancy Rate was 6.7%, approaching the highest level since July 2020 (6.9%) and September 2017 (6.8%). It has been trending higher since October 2021 (3.9%). To see more from ADS, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

The total amount of containerships fell to 131 at 1/23/24, from 151 at 12/31/23 and 162 at 11/30/23. The average number of containerships passing through the Suez Canal in 2023 was 174. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

A very insightful installment on crypto by our Sam Rines @SamuelRines

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Despite the decline in egg prices, protein prices remain high. Whether it is beef, chicken, or even milk; their downward movement has been limited due to factors such as bird flu and drought. To see more sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Ruh-roh, U.S. 10-year real yields (TIPS) breaking to lowest since June 2013. The floor at zero bps is no more. Tumbling real yields in 2020 is in stark contrast to improving global growth. Is the spreading coronavirus this big of an event or something else afoot?

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 months

Food Away From Home grew to $1.34 trillion in 2022, while Food at Home grew to $1.05 trillion in 2022. Total food spending in the U.S. by consumers, businesses and government entities totaled $2.39 trillion. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

When Powell speaks at his presser today will he continue with the Fed's pattern of claiming transitory inflation?

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Real estate listings searches ripping higher at 107% of estimate. But more importantly searches for property inspections & appraisals are now essentially back to normal. Comprehensive housing update here ->

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

The average most-watched value of supply chain metrics fell, dragged down by Manheim Used Vehicles which are down 13.7% year-over-year. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

Spread between media description of cryptocurrency as an investment vs gambling over time. Recent trends indicate a significant rise in mainstream legitimacy. @biancoresearch

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Where is Crypto spent? Groceries are a top category. Gaming/computers/streaming make up the next 3 areas. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial of Arbor Data Science here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Want to know how consumers are reacting to social distancing in real-time? Watch our data scientists discuss consumers' full-stop and how to foresee the gears of economies turning again using search activity.

ADS Webinar - Measuring the Effects of Social Distancing and Market...

This is "ADS Webinar - Measuring the Effects of Social Distancing and Market Dislocations" by Arbor Data Science on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos…

vimeo.com

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Deglobalization was THE surprise event of 2019. Coronavirus may very well exacerbate this reversal of inter-connected economies in 2020. Negative consequences for equities and eventually a positive influence on inflation as supply chains disrupted and countries look inward. (1/2)

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

Google searches showed a modest rebound in job-seeking in the US in February. Most of the US saw a consistent rebound despite weather challenges. Job postings are above pre-COVID levels and new job postings accelerated. HR shares are rallying on the progress. - @PeterSForbes

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

Periods of flattening like we've seen this week (past 3 days -25 bps!) typically result in more flattening for the 5y30y curve.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

23 days

The number of U.S. corporate bankruptcies increased to 75 in June 2024, which was the highest monthly total since June 2020. #bankruptcy To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Shortages have become a popular economic topic/concern. Currently, Adderall is #1 the most searched topic. Other widely searched topics include Diesel and Food. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

Is the tide turning for central banks?

Bloomberg Economics

@economics

3 years

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Start your week with the latest edition of Talking Data. Jim Bianco @biancoresearch and Sam Rines @SamuelRines discuss the latest CPI report and the market reaction. Listen below! iTunes: Spotify: YouTube:

Talking Data Episode #112: Reaction to the Inflation Report

Welcome to the latest edition of Talking Data. Our Talking Data series seeks to offer timely insights into macro market themes along with macro data and its ...

www.youtube.com

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

We've seen growing consumer interest in stagflation (low growth, high inflation) while hyperinflation has faded into obscurity.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

9 months

Google Search Trends offer insight into top concerns for consumers heading into the holiday season. Money market, savings, interest & food prices remain on top, while cheap gas has been on the decline. Sign up for a free trial of Arbor Data Science here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Total consumer debt is the highest it has been in over a decade. Much of this debt comes from mortgages, but credit card debt has also steadily risen. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

In sector-specific equity flows, outflows continued in Energy and Financials. Consumer Staples and Healthcare continue to see monthly inflows. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Google Search Trends offer insight into the potential weakening of the consumer. Searches for terms “Side Job” and “Credit Score” have surged suggesting some strain. To see more analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Housing remains THE leading indicator among economic data. Check out @PeterSForbes ' latest housing-related insights including real-time tracking of consumers intentions with @OJRenick at 9:15 AM central on @TDANetwork !

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Q322 showed a 3rd consecutive drawdown in total US retirement assets, falling 4%. The last instance of three straight negative quarterly changes was during the Financial Crisis, which suffered four. To see more of our analysis sign up for a free trial:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

US existing home sales fell to their lowest level since 2010. Both Dec and Jan figures were lower than May 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic pumped the brakes on the real estate market. To see more of our analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

In addition, ADP has printed above 270k only 14 times since 2003. 13 of these 14 times saw NFP private print above 250k.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Vacancy rates have risen steadily for more than a year with 6.6% of apartments estimated to be vacant in the US. More vacancy means renters have more options to shop around for lower rents. To see more of our analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

@BChappatta @economics Sadly, Fed policy bears loudest of the group. Most ignore facts when making "QE, Not QE" chants. The S&P 500's rally since August 2019 is no different from past rebounds in global economic data since 2003. Also acceleration since Oct more connected to % of growing economies.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Google Trends does offer some insight into the potential weakening of the consumer, with searches for terms relating to getting a side job and for the government assistance program, WIC, having recently spiked. h/t Charles Payne @cvpayne

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Our aggregate of most-watched supply chain metrics continues to maintain below-average levels with Consumer inflation expectations being the only real outlier. Manheim’s Index of Used Vehicles declined 7% YOY. To see more sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Higher rates & deteriorating market conditions have driven CRE transactions to a standstill. Office property transactions fell to a 13-year low in March. Current data is similar to the trend observed during the Financial Crisis. Sign up for a free trial:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Owners’ Equivalent Rent of Residences (“OER”), the component of shelter representing homeowners, peaked in May and declined to 7.8% YOY nationally in June. Regionally, OER has slowed the most in the West & South. To see more sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Investors continued to veer away from inflation-friendly funds, though TIPS saw small inflows the last week of 2022 along with energy funds.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Auto demand remains relatively strong in the face of rising uncertainty. See @PeterSForbes latest detailing consumers' intentions to buy vehicles across the globe.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Econ data across the globe pushed above trend (1y average growth rate) in recent days for first time since April 2018. Can we please STOP attributing EVERYTHING to central banks?! sheesh

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

Total college enrollment in the U.S. for both undergraduates and graduate students was 18.94 million in 2023. Enrollment peaked at 21.02 million in 2010. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

In 2021, 12,100 office buildings were under construction to be converted to apartments. Year-to-date in 2024, 55,300 office buildings have started construction to covert to apartments. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

30 days

Housing affordability continues to decline. #housing To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Powell's presser and recent speeches brought dovish rhetoric in line with hawkish. The Fed dramatically increased dovish language in 2019, while maintaining some of their hawkish hopes. Lots of Fed NLP to follow!(1/6) @TheStalwart @lisaabramowicz1 @TimDuy @greg_ip @NickTimiraos

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

The average premium for homeowners’ insurance in Florida hit $6,000 in 2023, while the average premium for homeowners’ insurance in the U.S. was $1,700 in 2023. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Single family home construction picked up speed as anticipated in December. Solid growth in single family construction in all regions, huge jump in the Midwest. Fits the theme of rebounding construction-related search activity.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

@PeterSForbes "The case for rising home prices is clear but uncertainty about pace of sales activity is rising. Google search activity for major real estate categories slipped below 3-mth forecasts, signaling a deceleration in the red-hot market."

Liz Ann Sonders

@LizAnnSonders

4 years

Median home list & sale prices have continued to accelerate swiftly since bottoming last year @Redfin @DataArbor

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

More reports of hospitals running short of PPE today. The wave of COVID-19 cases exposed long simmering weaknesses in the global medical supply chain. The U.S. is especially vulnerable and dangerously behind the curve.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

The largest component of total U.S. debt was held by ages 40-49 at $4.5 trillion, while ages 18-29 had the smallest amount at $1.3 trillion in Q4 2023. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 months

The % of borrowers with maxed-out credit cards in Q1 2024 was 9.04%, approximately the same level at the beginning of the pandemic (8.95% in Q1 2020). To see more from ADS, sign up for a free trial here: ……… #credit

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 years

Come learn about the new wave of leading economic indicators! More detailed video available here: #DataScience #FinancialMarkets

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 months

U.S. Jet Fuel Consumption, a leading indicator of travel demand, was 1.49 million barrels per day in February 2024 (black line in chart below), exceeding 2023 levels. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

The greatest number of job openings are still in Education and Health Services, though Leisure and Hospitality have been making gains. Layoffs getting the most attention are white collar jobs in tech and finance. Sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

The year-over-year headline inflation rate fell to 7.1% with core inflation at 6%. Services and shelter are by far the biggest contributors. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 months

Consumer debt continues to climb… Total Household Debt and Credit increased to $17.69 trillion in Q1 2024. To see more from ADS, sign up for a free trial here: …… #consumer #debt

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Looking at the delinquency rates among housing loans, we note that starting in June 2020, all delinquencies began a steep decline, but a little over two years later, that trend stopped. To see more of our analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

Bank failures have been small in number since the Financial Crisis. In 2023, there were 5 bank failures, compared to 140 in 2009 and 157 in 2010. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Don't forget the correlation b/t realized vol of S&P 500 and USTs has jumped to HIGHEST on record. Rising UST vol (e.g. MOVE index) a more destabilizing force than any. Historically, tech, pharma, and media companies most damaged by rising UST vol.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 months

Utilizing Google Search Trends, the most searched term in 2024 was Solana, XRP, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano and Avalanche. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

US leading global rebound in apparel searches. Burst of consumer interest comes at crucial seasonal period for the industry. Stronger demand sets stage for rebound in flexible CPI, potentially producing big head fake for investors! You've been warned!

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Using Natural Language Processing… Mentions of loan growth among regional banks have declined to levels last seen in the aftermath of the financial crisis. To see more analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 months

CPI-subcomponents Electricity and Food Inflation increased 28.2% and 20.7%, over a three year period. To see more from Arbor Data Science... …

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

The era of cheap money and stable prices has seemingly ended, and with it, so has the era of so-called “zombie” companies outperforming the S&P 500. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Interesting to see the first sequential declines in retail sales for some key categories - home furnishings, apparel, department stores. This is crunch time for many retailers hoping to survive the year. Our latest on the challenging times for retailers:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Deglobalization makes each country's equity markets more sensitive to any deceleration in leading indicators. Partial dependency plot shown below from model estimating equity returns since 1997. (2/2)

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Russian refusal to supply those enforcing the price cap will cause more disruptions in an already fractured market. @SamuelRines

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

"The truly painful moment for the used car market will be the restoration of auto production & dealer new auto inventory. That will reduce demand for used autos, cause pricing to become softer, & force significant markdowns. That day is not here yet, but it will be problematic."

Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

The latest episode of Talking Data is available now. Sam Rines @SamuelRines gives an update on the used auto market. Listen below! iTunes: Spotify: YouTube:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 months

The skies are getting crowded…Based on TSA checkpoint throughput, travel in 2024 is at the highest level in the past 6 years, currently outpacing 2019. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Fuel and Grocery Prices continue to cause consumers financial pain. While prices have moderated, they remain significantly higher YOY. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

As drug shortages continue... There were 156 new shortages identified in 2023. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 months

According to the New York Fed, the average full-time job offer for all full time employees in the U.S was $73.7k for March 2024. To see more from Arbor Data Science... ………

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Just as waters in IG corp bonds become inviting, fissures in REIT landscape widen. Mortgage REITs suddenly at precipice as margin calls cascade through market. Massive revenue uncertainty lingers even if near-term funding crisis solved. Full report here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 months

The highest U.S. metro office vacancy rate for Q4 2023 was San Francisco, CA at 21.46% followed by Houston, TX at 18.78%. #commercialrealestate To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 months

Total Existing Home Sales declined month-over-month to 4.1 million, (same level as May 2020). To see more from ADS, sign up for a free trial here: …………

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Declines in job-hunting searches look troubling. Drop in searches for next steps of job hunt more concerning and potentially signal individuals falling out of labor force. Need to see how much election is influencing this development.

Jed Kolko

@JedKolko

4 years

Job postings on @indeed down 15% vs last year's trend, as of Fri Oct 16. Weekly rate of improvement has slowed dramatically: 1.6 %pts per week, May 1-July 31 0.3 %pts per week, July 31-now 1/

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

The 'Great Coiling of 2020' has been fueled by heavy-handed central banks. History shows low vol can endure for longer than most expect! For details see full report here (free trial available):

Ben Breitholtz

@benbreitholtz

4 years

The degree of coiling across asset classes past 30 trading days has no rival! Markets all wound up waiting for something! Chart shows median 30 / 100-trading day ranges (max-min) for total return indices inc equities, forex, govts, commods, and credit. Lowest on record at 21%.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Shelter inflation rose 0.4% MOM in April, up 8.1% YOY. “OER” was also up 8.1% YOY - largest increases in the South. The first sign of prices rolling over took place in the West, down from 7.9% in March. To see more analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 months

The average projected cost of car insurance in 2024 is $2,160 up from $2,019 in 2023. To see more from ADS, sign up for a free trial here: #Automotive

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Tailwind of improving global econ data causing Fed's dovish and hawkish rhetoric to diverge. Dovish lullabies diminish for first time since early 2018, a very notable shift. (1/3)

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Retail investors’ search interest for “safer” assets such as money market accounts, CD’s and government bonds has risen dramatically relative to 2019 respective average levels. To see more of our analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 months

What affordable cars are left? The price of a new Chevrolet-Cruze in Q1 2107 was $53,923 and Chevrolet-Impala was $30,554 on Q1 2016. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

We use searches for property inspections & appraisals as channel check on housing transactions. Search activity fell sharply below forecasts for Midwest first as COVID hit, but bottomed wk of Nov 1. NE and South bottomed wk of Nov 15. All 3 regions have seen improvement since.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 months

Need to fill up your tank... Here's what you're buying. To see more, sign up for a free trial here: #gas

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Nationwide, real estate searches still running above forecasts. But, signs buyers stepping off the gas. Though near 3-mth forecasts, real estate listings and financing declined. Property inspections and appraisals, exhaust for the transactional steps in sales, also dropped. (2/2)

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Education and Health Services sectors still have an excess number of openings compared to pre-2020 while Leisure and Hospitality openings have sharply declined over the past two months. To see more, sign up for a free trial of Arbor Data Science here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Tech layoffs continue despite a strong job market. Apple, Google, Meta and Microsoft remain appealing to tech jobseekers, judging by Google Search Trends. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Uh oh, home improvement intentions peaked. The roll-over in excess search activity consistent across related types of spending. Searches for appliances and furnishings showing same tendency for weekly searches to fall back toward our baseline forecast.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 years

Major TV news programming more pessimistic about #2019nCoV (coronavirus) than swine flu (2010), ebola (2014), and Zika (2016). Financial news (e.g. Bloomberg and CNBC) have become hyper-focused on the spreading virus.

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

3 years

The latest edition of Talking Data featuring Sam Rines @SamuelRines is now available! Sam discusses the following topics: Inflation, Oil and Energy, and Housing. iTunes: Spotify: YouTube:

Talking Data Episode #104: Getting Sticky

Welcome to the latest edition of Talking Data. Our Talking Data series seeks to offer timely insights into macro market themes along with macro data and its ...

www.youtube.com

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

A look at Fed speak after Powell's testimony... 'Balanced' has very quickly become a missing term relative to history. Global developments have been THE focus since mid-2019, tiling risks to the downside. (1/5)

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 months

After 3 years of pent up travel demand post-pandemic, travel spending in both Europe and the U.S. began to level off in February 2023. To see more from ADS, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

Month-over-month, layoffs ticked higher for all but the information sector. Both construction and food service sectors saw the highest monthly increase in layoffs at 112,000 and 63,000, respectively. To see more analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

6 months

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2022, 22.1% of the male population was 60+ years old, compared to 24.9% for the female population. To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

10 days

Supply of new vehicles has returned, approaching December 2020 levels. #Autos To see more, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

4 years

Regarding auto shopping, countries like France + Italy seeing V-shaped recovery from depressed levels. How large the positive residuals (> than trend and seasonality) grow will help us answer the question about persistent shifts in behavior. More here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

1 year

The estimated cost per 30-seconds for Super Bowl 57 was a whopping $7 million, up about 8% from the year prior. Since Super Bowl 1, ad slots have increased by an average of about 10% each year. To see more of our analysis sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

15 days

Florida’s Housing inventory Surpasses 2019 levels To see more, sign up for a free trial here: #Florida #HousingMarket

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

2 years

Container rates have continued to slide by Dewry’s measurements. The Global Composite Rate has fallen to $2,404 after being above $3,000 just a month ago. To see more of our analysis and additional charts, sign up for a free trial here:

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Arbor Data Science

@DataArbor

5 months

How many ships arrive at the Port of Baltimore daily? To see more, sign up for a free trial here: #baltimorebridge

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