ASoftishLanding @SamuelRines Twitter profile

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

3 years

$NFLX riding off into the sunset on a $PTON.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Imagine if you had a portfolio of Sears, Hertz, Intelsat, and Tailored Brands. Is there an ancronym there?

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@SamuelRines

2 years

Ukraine was mentioned 20 times in the FOMC Minutes ... Covid was mentioned 3 times.

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@SamuelRines

5 years

The Fed's decision on the balance sheet is important. Means purchasing a minimum of $300B in predominately shorter-term US Treasuries in 2020. Basically, QE-lite is coming.

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@SamuelRines

7 years

Central banks are talking more than ever...

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@SamuelRines

3 years

Well. My life is complete now. Thanks for the shout out @donnelly_brent

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Been busy. Did I miss anything?

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@SamuelRines

5 years

“Empty Bases and Called Strikes”... seems this retaliation was an attempt to de-escalate while appearing strong.

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@SamuelRines

3 years

As @EpsilonTheory has pointed out, the lawsuit against Robinhood is pure fire. My favorite line: Find the document here -

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@SamuelRines

4 years

*CLARIDA: RECORD SHOWS FED CAN PUSH INFLATION HIGHER I want to see this record... Is it vinyl?

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

2 years

From genesis to exodus …

Jim Bianco

@biancoresearch

2 years

*CRYPTO FIRM GENESIS WARNS OF BANKRUPTCY WITHOUT NEW FUNDING They have been desperately trying to find new funding since last week. Only no, including Binance. They are not magically going to find a yes in the next few days. BTC back to a two-year low, Under $15,650

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@SamuelRines

2 years

Innovation

Fintwit

@fintwit_news

2 years

In 2009, Bernie Madoff lost investors $60 billion. He was sentenced to 150 years in prison. In 2022, Do Kwon lost investors $60 billion after Luna collapsed to $0. He then created Luna 2.0.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

I did it first ..

Santiago Capital

@SantiagoAuFund

2 years

tweet of the year candidate...😂

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@SamuelRines

2 years

#StoptheThiel

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

1 year

George Washington

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

5 years

The #USD remains the dominant reserve currency. And it is not even really close.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

2 years

Me: I wonder if people will listen to my “Odd Lots” podcast … My feed today:

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

2 years

The worlds greatest military, largest economy, and an open current account.

Jane Adams

@iLoveJaneAdams

2 years

What backs up the U.S. dollar?

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@SamuelRines

3 months

The inflation report from Costco was a great one. flat with some categories deflating and others slightly higher. Not sure why people prefer the PCE report over Costco.

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Well … it was fun while it lasted.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

The massive differentials in forecasts for Q3 GDP are the clearest signal of "no one has a clue"...

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@SamuelRines

5 years

Is the cycle turning? Taking a step back, the answer appears to be yes. Without cherry picking the data, leading indicators appear to have bottomed or be bottoming.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Imagine the creativity of programs the Fed could conjure if it were run by a lawyer. Oh, that’s right. It is.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

The Fed is now going to buy it all. Wow. ETFs, corp credit, and USTs. Wow. Just wow.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

1 year

American exceptionalism is an equity bull market with >5% interest rates … and haters everywhere.

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@SamuelRines

4 months

one of my favorite things about this cycle ... we are talking about rate cuts at 5300 on SPX. imagine if you want to use a historical example.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

4 months

I was promised a credit event… all I got was tighter spreads.

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@SamuelRines

3 years

How I plan to be a billionaire … figure out how to convince @42macroDDale to stop selling insight and start a hedge fund with me…

Real Vision

@RealVision

3 years

"I think Jay Powell has done a masterful job at managing what has been a complete 💩 show... both economically & politically in this country..." Watch the full episode with @maggielake & @42macroDDale 👇

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@SamuelRines

3 years

I’m going with 2022 will see a sub-1% 10-year. Tell me why not.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

A world without crypto is a world with AC.

Nat Bullard

@NatBullard

2 years

Texas avoided blackouts today. A Gigawatt of demand reduction from cryptocurrency miners helped.

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Level setting … WTI is $80 S&P is 4125 MMFs are paying >4% And we are all angry because? Seems like everyone winning.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

*PERSONAL UPDATE* I have decided to enter the crypto space to fill the void left by the sudden departure of Raoul Pal.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

5 months

since everyone is screaming "but part-time!" ... it is a choice ... folks *want* to work part-time.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

4 years

Tomorrow’s headline: “ Surging Oil Has Best Single Day On Record “

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Bars and Restaurants… killing it.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Great thread on why #MMT as a framework is the best framework for understanding how the system works/has worked. Saying “MMT is here” doesn’t make much sense, it already was here.

Stephanie Kelton

@StephanieKelton

4 years

How I see it: We have Covert Monetary Financing (CMF) now. Primary dealers take up all newly-issued Treasuries, and the Fed backstops primary dealers. Ergo, the Fed is *already* directly coordinating with fiscal all day, every day. 1/2

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@SamuelRines

2 years

I want to shake the hands of those kids parents … kid in blue raised on a next level. Kid in red raised fearless.

Eric Golden

@ericgoldenx

2 years

I’m not crying you are

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@SamuelRines

4 months

i know it is not popular to point to non-doom data, but it is interesting how little attention this gets ... layoffs and discharges are not back to normal.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

Powell is doing his best Volcker impression.

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@SamuelRines

3 years

Slowly … then suddenly

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq

@donnelly_brent

3 years

FED'S CLARIDA: MAY WELL BE APPROPRIATE AT DECEMBER MEETING TO DISCUSS SPEEDING TAPER (reuters) Pretty much the entire committee is onside with faster taper, even though FOMC meeting was only two weeks ago. They are speeding up as fast as they can. Full capitulation.

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@SamuelRines

5 years

The Fed is not dovish or hawkish. It is gracklish: loud, annoying, and not all that useful.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

2 years

*checks notes* Never been 0

Peter Zeihan

@PeterZeihan

2 years

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wants to shrink the balance sheet to zero over the next few years. And while this may be good for the economy, not everyone will like the outcome...especially our vest-wearing friends down on Wall Street. My Latest:

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@SamuelRines

6 months

Breaking - Markets rip higher as rate cuts get pushed out … It was never about the rate cuts.

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Imagine having a nice breeze at your back, looking at a beautiful sunrise and thinking “about time for a hurricane”. #fintwit all the time

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Is it just me... or is it hard to find a real driver of higher long-end yields...

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@SamuelRines

1 year

The paragraph that matters.

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@SamuelRines

5 months

New and used autos were a problem for inflation during and immediately after the pandemic. Now it’s the far stickier transportation services (auto insurance). That does not dissipate quickly.

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@SamuelRines

4 months

“Facts are meaningless. You can use facts to prove anything that’s even remotely true.”

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

@hussmanjp

4 months

"It's funny 'cause it's true." - Homer Simpson

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@SamuelRines

4 months

Tapestry currently leading the pack for my favorite earnings call quote...

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@SamuelRines

2 years

Cramer making fun of Woods … What a time to be alive.

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@SamuelRines

7 years

When $GE has a quarter like this, it’s typically a sign of something amiss in US economy: GE Sees Yr EPS $1.05- $1.10, Saw $1.60-$1.70

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Give us anything, we will give you cash.

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@SamuelRines

2 months

this is one of my favorite subsectors to watch.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

AAPL and AMZN going to ruin the party, aren’t they …

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@SamuelRines

3 years

Brent … is too good.

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq

@donnelly_brent

3 years

"Nobody will ever tell you to sell." It feels naughty or mean-spirited to be bearish crypto. But I have to be honest! Here is my latest on how we are in the bearish part of the halving cycle AND monetary policy cycle. Make sure you can survive winter.

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@SamuelRines

11 months

Forward guidance is a key differential between current and past episodes. Acts like a “fast forward” button to a degree.

Warren Pies

@WarrenPies

11 months

Historically, stocks DECLINE leading into a Fed pause and then RALLY during the pause. This cycle has reversed the historic trend. Stocks rallied heading into the Fed's final hike (July) and have fallen since. Chart from the @3F_Research Q4 Chart Book cc: @pekwat

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@SamuelRines

5 years

Worst possible statement that could be made by a former NY Fed official. Absolutely no reason to write this type of trashy tirade.

Bloomberg Opinion

@opinion

5 years

Former president of the New York Fed, Bill Dudley: "If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020."

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Do they know what SNAFU is an abbreviation for?

Squawk on the Street

@SquawkStreet

1 year

Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan joins to discuss the airline’s Q1 earnings results, rebuilding its brand image in light of recent travel snafus, and more. $LUV @lebeaucarnews

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Casual reminder that through all of this turmoil… the S&P is sitting at 3900.

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@SamuelRines

6 months

Do not think I have ever seen a headline ISM print so disconnected from the tone of the “comments” section …

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Mother of All Stupid Sentences

Dr. Marco Metzler

@metzler_dr

1 year

Next Bank Run at Charles Schwab, unrealized losses on deposits double than tangible common equity. Move uninsured deposits out! MOASS is happening now!

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@SamuelRines

2 months

Never misses

Sunchartist

@sunchartist

2 months

France’s Centre Cannot Hold

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@SamuelRines

1 year

This thread is nonsense. But - also - close to outright dangerously stupid.

Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA

@GRDecter

1 year

The US dollar is losing its reserve currency status Here’s what you should know 🧵

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@SamuelRines

1 year

Congressionally mandated 26m bbl sale that concludes June 30

Live Monitor

@amlivemon

1 year

So much for refilling SPR in the $60s… they were still dumping it

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@SamuelRines

1 year

I may have been bullish(ish) here. Middle America does not care about abt SVB or FRC. Middle America is in revenge mode.

VettaFi

@Vetta_Fi

1 year

What did @Corbu 's @SamuelRines say that left @DaveNadig feeling "shockingly optimistic" about the next 9-months? 👀 Find out in the full video at the link below. -It's the 15-minute conversation you can't miss. 👉

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Hello Yield Curve Control...

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@SamuelRines

4 years

Since February, 4.08 Million people have left the labor force. If the labor market had not shrunk, the unemployment rate would be 9.2%. Expectations for the speed of the employment recovery should be tempered.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

*NYMEX WTI CRUDE MAY. FUTURES SETTLE AT -$37.63 A BARREL That is not a headline anyone thought they would be reading. Ever.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

4 months

Hearing “Dad wants to talk to you.”

Eric Alper 🎧

@ThatEricAlper

4 months

What sucked as a child but is awesome as an adult?

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@SamuelRines

3 years

There’s lots of things “below my line” … what’s below yours? I’ll start. @chamath is below mine.

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@SamuelRines

4 months

It is stunning how many people follow accounts that have no clue what the data is / how it is calculated / how to use it. Stunning.

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@SamuelRines

3 years

My read of the FOMC Minutes … a thread. “A bunch of people thought it was time to taper, a bunch didn’t, and we cannot wait for those hawks to shut up.” Yes. It was a short thread.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

That assumes military spending declines … and interest costs aren’t variable and skewed to front end of the curve … and the whole technology thing … but sure a one off inflation spike will totes change the course of history. Like it did in the 70s-80s. Totally undefeated.

Luke Gromen

@LukeGromen

2 years

Q: "What force is powerful enough to stop the US military?" A: Compounding interest, which is undefeated all-time v. hegemons. Alternate title: "Why weaponizing the USD is like giving ourselves a root canal with a shotgun." 👇

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@SamuelRines

9 years

The utilization of assets in the sharing economy may play a larger role than currently modeled.

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@SamuelRines

3 years

I don’t really care that someone was forced to sell gold late in a Sunday night. All I want to know is what had blown up on them that required that much cash.

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@SamuelRines

5 years

So, Trump knows the Fed’s reaction function and he is going to push it as far as possible.

CNBC Now

@CNBCnow

5 years

NEW: President Trump to make 1:45PM ET announcement tomorrow “on EU trade,” the White House says.

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@SamuelRines

5 years

If you are curious about what is popular with investors at the moment, this is an intriguing chart.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

4 months

For those who followed PolyMacro … a good substitute is below.

WisdomTree

@WisdomTreeFunds

4 months

Earnings season has only just begun, but a few meaningful themes are already beginning to emerge. @SamuelRines walks through a few companies' earnings reports and what they mean for the economy.

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@SamuelRines

5 years

Not only does monetary policy work in lags. Monetary policy reacts with lags.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

GS comes around to the notion that “25s for Life” is a thing.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

6 months

But the Mag 7!

Yahoo Finance

@YahooFinance

6 months

Stocks that finished at 52-week highs today: $WMT +33.40% $BAC +25.03% $ORCL +50.83% $WFC +43.42% $IBM +58.67% $CL +22.87% $DB +32.15% $GPS +127.56% $STLA +60.75%

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@SamuelRines

2 years

The layers of hubris and lack of self awareness is stunning.

Michael Saylor⚡️

@saylor

2 years

Starting to feel like a #Bitcoin Veteran.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

A bridge to nowhere

FTX Ventures buys 30% stake in Scaramucci’s SkyBridge Capital

Deal continues billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s recent efforts to support cryptocurrency market

www.ft.com

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@SamuelRines

2 years

The Google Complaint is a great read "Project Bernanke" is the best section so far.

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@SamuelRines

2 years

Quick takeaways from the minutes - A few wanted 50 No mention of a pause in hiking Emphasis maintain restrictive stance for a while Gracklish

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@SamuelRines

4 months

Or … it’s simply a recalibration to a non-deflationary environment with a central bank looking to embed - not defend - inflation expectations. Regimes change.

CNBC's Fast Money

@CNBCFastMoney

4 months

The yen hitting a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar... "The BoJ's credibility is shot," says @timseymour . @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal outline the biggest risks posed by Japan's currency weakness.

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@SamuelRines

10 months

It was quite the hurricane

Claudia Sahm

@Claudia_Sahm

10 months

What type of person insults others on LinkedIn? 👇 It blows me away. I pulled some data, made nice charts, and drew the only reasonable inferences one could. (The Jamie Dimon dig at me made me smile. Guys really like him.)

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@SamuelRines

7 months

$NVDA crushes again. So we get all the sighs of relief tomorrow. Also, that’s quite the guidance.

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@SamuelRines

5 years

To everyone freaking out abt the ugly #ISM manufacturing print, remember that GM is striking. Give it another month before calling an end to the world.

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

2 years

Never the definition of recession.

Luke Gromen

@LukeGromen

2 years

@SantiagoAuFund @CryptoBlart 2022: Also the year that we hedonically-adjusted the definition recession such that 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth is no longer a recession. Side benefit: We may never have another recession!

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ASoftishLanding

@SamuelRines

2 years

At least one (of my) ideas aged well.

ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq

@donnelly_brent

2 years

Great observation and data from @SamuelRines who's one of the most interesting and practical economists I read. AMZN's "we are overstaffed" message is not isolated. It's a tech thing.

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@SamuelRines

8 months

This sounds very familiar…

Isabella M. Weber

@IsabellaMWeber

8 months

“Price over volume” alive and kicking in 2023. Here are six of the world’s most important food producers. They did NOT lower prices when volumes were weak or even declining, instead prices propped up sales revenues. @SpeedMaddie @FT

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@SamuelRines

5 years

In summary, this paper finds welfare gains to taking financial conditions into account when setting monetary policy. Yes, that's correct, the New York Fed published a paper that basically says "don't let stocks fall too much".

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@SamuelRines

3 years

Well, that Zucked.

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@SamuelRines

11 months

Recessionistas after this weeks earnings / data / commentary …

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@SamuelRines

3 years

Tell me you’re making a policy mistake without telling me you’re making one …

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@SamuelRines

5 years

*MNUCHIN SAYS NO REASON TO BELIEVE POWELL'S JOB ISN'T SAFE Assuming the FOMC aggressively cuts...

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@SamuelRines

2 years

Tesla firing, Ford hiring.

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@SamuelRines

3 years

The notion that the Fed will hike rates into a fiscal cliff in nonsensical. The current stimulus (and the Fed not caring about 2021 inflation) means the Fed is not raising rates for a very, very long time.

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@SamuelRines

4 years

This CPI report taught us two things: 1) There is no reason for the Fed to fret on the short-end. 2) There is no inflation to push up the long-end.

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