I'm excited to share our 2023 State of Crypto Report. In addition to the 60 slide overview, we're also adding something new this year: The State of Crypto Index, an interactive data tool to track the industry's growth across 14 key metrics. Check it out:
Introducing the NFT Analyst Starter Pack. Enter a contract address, and with one command generate CSV extracts for all token transfers, historical sales, and each underlying item’s metadata (w/ calculated rarity scores). Powered by
@AlchemyPlatform
. 🧵👇
The Ethereum developer community is more vibrant than ever. We estimate that more developers have entered the Ethereum ecosystem so far this year than the previous two years combined. 🧵👇
When minting NFTs, creators face a number of decisions that can affect the performance of their projects.
I dug into the data to help inform people’s choices. 🧵👇
I’m excited to finally share what we’ve been working on. The 2022 State of Crypto report is a data-driven analysis of the latest trends in web3. Be sure to check out the 50+ slides. In the meantime, here are some of the important data points that I'll be keeping an eye on.
This morning
@a16z
crypto published our first annual State of Crypto report. 📊
It shows how far crypto has come — and how early we still are — in building the next generation of the internet. Here's a 🧵 of some highlights.
Statistical rarity can be very misleading when it comes to NFT valuations. Why? Because cultural trends are often more powerful. Here’s an example of this you can see in the CryptoPunks data 👇.
Event logs are one of the most important sources of historical data on Ethereum. Learning how they are structured, and how to access them, is critical for anyone who wants to analyze smart contract interactions. Here’s what I’ve learned. 🧵👇
Here are some (broadly-defined) areas where I believe crypto can make a difference in the world.
1/ Payments
Problem: Payments are highly inefficient, especially when sending them across borders. People spend $647 billion on remittances every year, with an average cost of 6.25%.
I’ve never been more bullish on Ethereum. Multi-collateral DAI from
@MakerDAO
and v2 prediction markets from
@AugurProject
are going to be KILLER apps.
AI + blockchains come together
Decentralized blockchains are a counterbalancing force to centralized AI. AI models (like in ChatGPT) can currently only be trained and operated by a handful of tech giants, since the required compute and training data are prohibitive for smaller
The State of Crypto index, which measures innovation and adoption in the crypto industry based on 14 key non-financial metrics, hit another all time high last month.
Several of the underlying metrics also individually hit all time highs. Here are some highlights 👇
Let’s close the gap between crypto owners and active on-chain users. This is more important (and presents a bigger growth opportunity) than expanding the total number of crypto investors.
Let’s look at the data. NFT collections with mint prices set greater than 0.25 ETH have rarely achieved 10x+ returns. Only 2 collections succeed here:
@AzukiZen
and
@InvsbleFriends
.
We just pushed a big update to our NFT Analyst Starter Pack. By utilizing some newer
@AlchemyPlatform
API endpoints, we were able to simplify the codebase and add some new data fields like marketplace, royalties, and protocol fees. Check it out at .
NFTs are cultural artifacts of web3. Therefore, data-driven analysis needs to look beyond statistical rarity to uncover the deeper cultural trends that are emerging.
The State of Crypto Index is at an all time high. The index measures innovation and adoption in the crypto industry based on 14 key non-financial metrics.
The State of Crypto Index is up 12% in the last month, down 6% in the last year, and up 1,577% in the last 3 years using our default assumptions. If you disagree, you can adjust the input parameters yourself! Check it out at .
Having spent a lot of time down the NFT rabbit hole, it's surprisingly difficult to export even the most basic data associated with a collection (transfers, sales, and metadata).
People always talk about web3’s lower take rates, and the impact this could have on the creator economy. But what exactly about web3 makes it different from web2? As
@eddylazzarin
puts simply: The network design has economic consequences.👇
I created an Apple shortcut to fetch the real-time net ETH flow since Shanghai (directly from
@hildobby_
's Dune query). Powered by the new, free
@DuneAnalytics
API endpoints.
This is another example of the crypto price-innovation cycle. When crypto prices rise, it leads to increased developer interest. Increased developer interest leads to new innovation. New innovation leads to a rise in crypto prices...and the cycle repeats.
I believe we will see some of the most impactful crypto companies emerge out of this upcoming CSS program in London. We've come a long way with blockchain infrastructure, and it's now the perfect time to build something new in crypto. Submit an application!👇
1/ We’ve got some exciting news to share!
Applications for Crypto Startup School (CSS) Spring 2024 in London are now OPEN!
Ready to fast-track your crypto startup journey?
Apply here:
Learn more👇
That’s why we built the NFT Analyst Starter Pack, which is designed to be extremely lightweight and easy to use — even for beginners! All you need is a free Alchemy API key.
3 companies now generate a third of all global web traffic. 5 companies represent 50% of the Nasdaq 100’s market cap. A decentralized computing platform, owned by no single entity, is a counterbalancing force to this increasing consolidation of power. The internet needs web3.
Lastly, a special shoutout to community tools like
@AlchemyPlatform
and
@EthereumETL
that do all of the heavy lifting that makes this type of data extraction possible.
Some areas we are focused on right now include trait-specific valuation models, off-chain community/social signals, and wash trade detection. If you’re working on any of these things, I’d love to chat!
We also published a dashboard on
@DuneAnalytics
where you can view these metrics for any given NFT collection. Just enter the contract address and explore!
Out of 10,000 punks, there are exactly 259 that have a “Hoodie” and 212 that have a “Clown Nose”. If you believe that rarity determines value, then clown noses should be priced higher than hoodies - this is provably untrue.
Hoodie punks have consistently been sold at a 2-4x premium. One simple way to measure this is by looking at the market price of hoodie punks sold relative to the average price of the last 50 sales (excluding Zombies, Apes, and Aliens).
Bringing “real world truth” to the blockchain is going to be one of the most important innovations in crypto. I’m optimistic that the
@AugurProject
oracle implementation will work, but either way...I think there is a huge opportunity here.
Whether you’re a data scientist looking to build models, an analyst interested in historical price trends, a developer building an application, or a prospective buyer/seller who wants to understand the rarity of certain traits, this tool can help you get started.
Keeping crypto onshore is a matter of national security. Will the U.S. learn from past experiences like semiconductor manufacturing? We should not have to rely on untrusted foreign developers and suppliers for critical technology infrastructure.
We can analyze the growth of Ethereum's developer activity by looking at the GitHub stars on key developer repositories (web3js, truffle, solidity, hardhat, ethersjs, OpenZeppelin contracts, web3py, and scaffold-eth) over time.
It has been an absolute honor working with
@eddylazzarin
over the last 2 years. He is a great leader, and I can't wait to watch him succeed in this new role.
It takes a special intellect to stand out among crypto technologists, and we’re fortunate to have one of those people on our team. I’m happy to share that
@eddylazzarin
has been promoted to Chief Technology Officer for
@a16zcrypto
.
Reminder: In the crypto market, speculation is a byproduct that is separate from its core value proposition. Just like real estate, art, and many other markets today.
Many of the most successful NFT projects raised less than $5 million in the mint. In fact, in this data set there was a negative correlation between primary sales revenue and performance since mint.
Although I know nothing about how the trick was done, I can instantly verify that
@blauyourmind
knows the secret to performing this illusion. A fantastic analogy for ZK proofs.
Another cool way to use the
@DuneAnalytics
API: Programmatically fetch the price of ETH at a given block number. This is something that has always been surprisingly difficult to do. Here’s a simple Python implementation.
Today we are announcing a16z crypto Fund 4. We’ve raised $4.5B to invest in promising web3 founders and startups, bringing our total crypto funds raised to more than $7.6B. 💪
10 - The growth of web3 compared to the growth of the internet in its early days. We estimate that there are somewhere between 7 to 50 million active Ethereum users today. This compares to the internet in 1995 (which was on a similar growth trajectory at the time).
More than 40 million Americans have purchased crypto, but there are signs that the US may be losing its lead in web3. Good policy can help keep the development of this critically important technology onshore while also protecting consumers. This is a matter of national security.
Blockchains are an important new technology, but crypto needs clear regulatory guidance to thrive in the U.S.
We put together a spotlight on the state of crypto policy to share:
1. What's at stake
2. Relevant data, and
3. Guiding principles for policymakers to protect consumers
7 - Creator revenues earned from NFTs compared to the big web2 platforms. NFTs already rival the likes of YouTube, Spotify, and Facebook when it comes to total dollars paid out, and the numbers are even more staggering when you look at the average earned per creator.
Great work from
@moodlezoup
on this on-chain sealed bid auction implementation. Also, check out his blog post to learn more about different auction formats and their use cases.
Research engineer
@moodlezoup
just open sourced a Solidity implementation of an overcollateralized sealed-bid auction.
To start, a few things about bringing sealed bid auctions on-chain. 🧵
2. Mobile Wallet Users - After trending down for most of 2022 and 2023, mobile wallet users have now grown month-over-month for 5 consecutive months. March was a breakout month with 27M active mobile wallet users - driven by significant growth in wallets like World App by
Jolt is an insane accomplishment from gigabrains
@SuccinctJT
@samrags_
@moodlezoup
@NoahCitron
. This is a significant contribution toward the endgame solution for blockchain scalability, and of course the implementation is fully open source ⚡️
1/ We're excited to share the initial release of Jolt, a new approach to zkVM design. Early benchmarks indicate it outperforms RISC Zero by ~6x and SP1 by up to 2x. Major optimizations are still in the pipeline.
Remember that a large majority of the NFT market is still less than a year old. While primary sales may be the dominant source of creator revenues today, a project’s long-term success will depend on a sustainable secondary market and an engaged community.
There are now over 39K Github accounts that have starred at least one of these repositories. I believe this is a decent proxy for the number of unique developers building on Ethereum.
On the other hand, clown nose punks tend to trade at a discount to average market prices. This is despite being statistically more rare than the hoodie punks.
tl;dr
1) Low mint prices correlate to higher return multiples for early backers
2) Many of today’s most vibrant secondary markets had very little in primary sales revenue
3) There has been a “sweet spot” of 5-to-10 mints per address for top performing collections
Another question for creators is whether to limit the number of mints per on-chain address. Do projects with fewer mints per address see higher returns? The answer appears to be no. Many of the best performers had, on average, 5-to-10 mints per address.
GM Explorers 🧭
NFT God Mode has been revamped to bring you more actionable insights, so let's check out the new dashboards:
- Balances
- Owners
- Owner’s Activity
See the example for Bored Ape Yacht Club below 🧵 ⤵️
Today we're announcing Helios, a fast, portable, and secure Ethereum light client written in Rust.
Helios syncs in two seconds, uses no storage, and provides trustless access to Ethereum.
Code:
Post:
1/8
Lastly, thank you to my former
@SVB_Financial
colleagues for what has been an incredible 6+ year experience. I can't wait to see what you all are able to accomplish.
I've always been fascinated by the use of data to uncover new technology trends and opportunities. I couldn't be more excited to work in a space I'm incredibly passionate about, while taking advantage of the "open" nature of data that is available via public blockchains.
Choosing an “ideal” mint price is super important. A higher price means more revenue generated upfront, assuming there is enough demand. But a higher price will also dampen the potential returns for your earliest backers, which could impact secondary volume.
By looking at each developer's first starred repository, we can see that
@solidity_lang
and
@OpenZeppelin
's contracts are the main entry points for new developers today.
Why the negative correlation? One reason is that it is just harder to generate multiples on a larger base. Going from a price of 0.02 ETH to 0.20 ETH is much easier than going from 0.50 ETH to 5.00 ETH.
Today we’re thrilled to announce the launch of our new accelerator, Crypto Startup School.
The program will include:
Investment from
@a16zcrypto
($500k)
Mentorship from leading founders
Advice from domain experts
Network of fellow builders
Apply:
There is a similar correlation between primary sales revenue and secondary trading volume. As it turns out, many projects that raised very little in the mint have seen significant traction in the secondary markets.
Excited to share that
@a16z
has invested $70M in
@LidoFinance
, one of the easiest ways to stake ETH and other PoS assets, and we used Lido to stake a portion of our ETH holdings on the Beacon chain. More from
@DarenMatsuoka
&
@_PorterSmith
:
So proud to work with people like
@SuccinctJT
,
@samrags_
, and
@moodlezoup
who are moving the entire crypto industry forward. Lasso and Jolt represent a new paradigm in SNARK design.
Why is there not more competition on the vig (fees) for sports betting? Why is -110 the standard for a spread bet? Once P2P liquidity (+scalability) improves for non-custodial crypto native apps like
@AugurProject
and
@DegensBet
, I expect betting fees to converge towards zero. 👇
6 - The on-chain velocity, or rate of turnover, for top stablecoins. If more people start to use stablecoins for everyday purchases, these numbers should increase.
Of course, every creator and every project is different. The design of an NFT drop is way more art than science. But hopefully these data benchmarks can help inform NFT creators’ key decisions.
5 - DeFi TVL compared to numbers from the legacy financial system. Today, DeFi would represent the 31st largest US bank by total assets under management.
Applications are now open for CSX Fall 2024 in New York City!
This is the first year that our Crypto Startup Accelerator (CSX) program – which provides expert guidance, capital, and resources for founders of early-stage crypto startups – will have two cohorts, one for Spring and
Arianna is truly exceptional, and I know she will continue to move the crypto industry forward. I'm so lucky to be able to work with and learn from her every day!
8 - The growth of metaverse-related sales. We’ve already seen nearly $2 billion in secondary volume for metaverse land…it will be exciting to watch these virtual worlds get built from the ground up.
4 - The Beacon Chain (proof-of-stake) deposits and depositors ahead of its upcoming merge with the Ethereum Mainnet. There is already over $25 billion staked.
1. Active Addresses - In March there were 37M active addresses across all tracked blockchains, a 34% month-over-month growth. The top chain by monthly active addresses:
@solana
.
In Solidity, you’ll see that events are defined using the “event” keyword and are emitted using the “emit” keyword. Placing the “indexed” keyword in front of a parameter name will store it as a topic in the log record. Without the keyword “indexed”, it will be stored as data.
The metaverse will be built bottom-up, not top-down. Check out this fantastic piece from
@liz_harkavy
@eddylazzarin
@AriannaSimpson
on why the metaverse cannot exist without the fundamental foundations of web3 tech.
I feel so lucky to have been able to work with and learn from Katie. She has moved the industry forward in so many ways, and I can’t wait to see what amazing things she will accomplish in her next chapter.
1/ Today
@cdixon
and I shared with the
@a16z
crypto team that I will be launching my own fund focused on crypto and web3 early next year. The current crypto fund will be my last at the firm
9 - The diversification of DAO treasury assets. Right now, a large majority of value held by DAOs is still in the form of the protocol’s native governance token.
I am beyond excited to announce that
@a16z
crypto is leading the financing of
@yugalabs
and I'm joining the board. We look forward to helping the team continue to usher the next wave of creators and builders into web3 to define the future of culture and innovation. LFG!
🦍🦍🦍
Learning about event logs has really helped me understand how historical data is stored on the EVM. If anything isn’t clear, or if you’d like to chat further about these topics (no pun intended), my DMs are open!
🚨 ANN: I’m super thrilled to finally be able to announce this - I’m moving to the a16z crypto team and will be investing only in web3/crypto going forward.
3 - The percentage of total fees on L1 Ethereum paid by L2 rollups. Right now, rollups account for just 1.5% of fees...I expect this number to go up significantly as L2s become more widely adopted.
Fascinating overview from
@VirtualElena
on the historical context surrounding zero-knowledge proofs. These technological developments are critical to unlocking the full potential of web3.
Decentralized Speed🔥
Over the past decade zero-knowledge proofs, the cryptography underpinning privacy and scabilty solutions in web3, have grown faster and more computationally-efficient to generate.