Dale Copeland @Copela1492 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Dale Copeland

@Copela1492

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Professor, UVa. Author: A World Safe for Commerce (Princeton UP, 2024); Economic Interdependence and War (PUP, 2015); Origins of Major War (Cornell UP, 2000).

Joined February 2024

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

15 days

Will China Invade Taiwan within the Next Five Years? Part 3: The New "Three-Cornered Fight" between DC, Dmitri Alperovitz, and Neoclassical Realists (NCR) Hi All, This is the promised third in the installment of "episodes" on the big question of what conditions increase

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Well, Folks, Seems My Dogged Efforts have Finally Been Rewarded: I've been told I've just received a Coveted NAFO Fellaship for my Service in Sniffing Out BS and Hounding Those that Create It. This is indeed a proud moment (I'm serious). The NAFO group has done an

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

HI All. Thanks so much to all NAFO fellas for sending me notes of congratulations for being awarded the prestigious fellaship. People in my field, of course, are already asking me "Why (oh why) did you accept the Fellaship?" The answers are multiple, but the top seven are

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ElbridgeColby Ummm, Bridge....( #238 ). This is seriously rich, bro. I and many others have been asking you to have a "serious grappling with the issues and facts" for two and a half months -- including an objective comparing of other realisms to your take on realism that leads you to

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@MichaelGoolsbyV @ElbridgeColby Please, everyone, Be aware: This is another attempt by Bridge Colby to draw a parallel between Hitler 1939 and Xi Jinping 2024. And unfortunately, in this case, he is drawing upon his intimate knowledge of my own work (esp The Origins of Major War), which shows that Hitler

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

15 days

@ElbridgeColby Bridge, This is pure incendiary alarmism in its worst form (i.e., designed to rile up a base) and you know it. You had been getting more reasonable in your posts, and I've applauded these posts. And now this. Let's dissect this a bit, shall we? First, this is literally

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Oh, Forgot to Mention: Note Three Things about the Cartoon just posted: (a) I am (as a NAFO Shiba Inu dog) holding a sword, which captures the sword and stance of the U of Virginia mascot, a sword-bearing "Cavalier"; (b) I (as NAFO dog) am standing in front of

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

5 months

My new book, _A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China_, Princeton, came out yesterday.

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A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China...

A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China (Princeton Studies in International History and Politics)

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@IndrekLobus Agreed, Indrek. But I'm an honest fella, and I just wanted everyone to know: I had heard that the salaries that NAFO writers and cartoon creators are said to be 5 or 6 what I was paid for doing pro bono consulting work for Bridge Colby for six months in early 2018. And while

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

A Reluctant Reply to a Bridge Colby "Response" to the Adam K/NAFO Controversy... @AdamKinzinger @ElbridgeColby [Hi All, You probably all know by now that yesterday afternoon, Adam Kinzinger, former GOP Congressman, proud RINO, and author of Renegade: Defending Liberty and

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Hi All. I'm I bit giddy right now, given my new fellaship and all the extra cash I've been promised. But I thought I do a quick trivia quiz. What do the following three sentence have in common? (You NAFO dogs out there have until tonight to answer. But don't think too hard

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@AdamKinzinger @ElbridgeColby Thanks Adam. Very much appreciate the repost/reply. I've only been on X for 3 months, naively thinking I would use it just to promote my new book (!). I quickly came to the discovery that Bridge, my friend and former colleague at the DOD in 2018, was posting what I felt to be

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Is World War I a possible analogy for What Might Happen with US-Russia and Ukraine? When Bridge Colby late last night argued that he worried people were downplaying the escalation risks of a US-Russia war over Ukraine, and that "People in 1918 wished the people in 1914 had

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

12 days

@ElbridgeColby @Policy_Exchange Bridge, Take a listen at your own words here. You retweeted with approach Edward Burrow's nice reply to you saying, in one sentence, "Kudos, Colby. Simple, easy to understand facts that tell the real story." And of course he's right about the "simple" part, about dead wrong

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

Hi All. Having posted this morning that it looked positive for Johnson's plan to aid both Ukraine and Taiwan, and thinking I could return to my Spain-England 16th C case, I happened to see BColby finally posted a comment on the plan -- and got some 11,000 views in 45 minutes.

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ndcarson Um, Nathan, I think in this case one needs to look at the causal chain: BC was refusing to ever engage in real discussion over his own supposedly realist argument that China is gearing up, for rational security reasons, to take over not just Taiwan, but the Philippines and all

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@SnarkusAurelius @ElbridgeColby Well, Snarkus Aurelius (love the moniker -- Markus Aurelius is my favorite stoic philosopher), the types of foundations that both St. Augustine and St. Thomas put forward are pretty familiar to all Christians, since they shaped the development of Christianity more than any other

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

17 days

Will China Invade Taiwan within the Next Five Years? Part 2: The Interaction of Two Key Factors -- China's "Character Type" and the "Exogenous Conditions" Beijing Faces at Any Point in Time. Hi All, In this second of my series on the issue of China's likelihood of invading

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Hi All, Just a quick (!) post about China's "dumping" of its products onto world markets (i.e., selling their surplus goods at bargain-basement prices, thus undercutting American and European manufacturers in their own home markets). This has been widely reported, as most of

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@drkatems Hey, REP Fella, I think I know that pole! When I was a college student doing a Bachelors in Commerce and Economics at Queen's University in Kingston Ontario, we used to come up in January to skate on the Rideau Canal. I believe I lifted my leg to relieve myself on that pole

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Is China Getting Ready to Invade Taiwan?! Someone sent me this video from the Wion webcast network showing China getting ready to invade Taiwan. (Link below) It shows Chinese missile batteries firing off weapons, points that China would hit in an attack, and the placement of

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

Further Debate on China's Dependence on Raw Materials: Policy Tensor vs DC vs BC (!) [Hi All, A quick response to Anusar (Policy Tensor) who said, in essence, that China does indeed want access to goods around the world (as I keep emphasizing) but if it feels pushed into a corner

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ElbridgeColby @tomaszm_ Well done Bridge. You found at least one of your followers to post a meaningless reply to Adam Kinzinger's "zinger" (and he and I are "kin" on this issue). And of course, instead of making a concrete argument, you pull out your emojis. And your power trio, no less: thumbs

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ElbridgeColby @X Ummm, Bridge, you're still got 12K views for this posting, so I believe, empirically you are still very much being heard every time you speak, both by critics/NAFO supporters and by your own followers. So the metaphor of being shouted down at college campuses (a favorite of

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@imaginmanchuria @ElbridgeColby @MichaelGoolsbyV Can I assume, Bridge, that this short and strange reposting constitutes a response to my long reply to your posting to me yesterday? (A reposting, I might add, from a person who hides under the name and photo of a fictional character from the Netflix drama The Man in the High

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

5 months

Hi all, If you missed it, here's a nice review of A World Safe for Commerce in Foreign Policy from this morning.

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When Economics and Great-Power Foreign Policy Collide

Dale C. Copeland’s new history of commerce is magisterial—and prescient.

foreignpolicy.com

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Hi All. Found a short breathing space to chat about Rome vs Persia, 65 BCE to 200 CE (!). Let me start by saying that the Rome-Persia (Parthian) case is completely ignored by IR scholars, even though it went across and affected the "careers" of some of the most well-known Roman

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@ElbridgeColby Ummm, Bridge...( #249 ). Quite amazing. I continue to be dumbfounded by your posts. First, you admit "you have no idea" whether China is on the verge of attacking Taiwan. Wait? Can't you even put odds on China doing this in the next two years? (i.e., before the DOD says

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

A Reply (of sorts) to an Outrageous Posting by, yes, once again, Elbridge Colby, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, March 2017 to June 2018. [Hi All. I know, I know. I promised to leave my replies to BC in just my "Replies" section so I

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

15 days

@davidpgoldman My concern with your scenario, David, is that it fails to account for the CCP's obsession with "security" defined as party legitimacy and domestic stability. Even the blockade option (vs a D-Day-like invasion) would have a devastating impact on China's GDP and thus, even

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

19 days

Will China Invade Taiwan within the Next Five Years? Part I: Dmitri Alperovitch's World on the Brink Hi All, Today I begin the first in a project six or seven "episodes" on the question of whether China is likely to try to absorb Taiwan by force (either by direct invasion

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@ElbridgeColby Hi All. I want to reply briefly to Bridge's recent posting. But first, thanks to everyone who have given me feedback on my comments re US-China, Xi's character type, and my long(ish) analyses of which historical great power systems most parallel the current one with US-China.

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

16 days

@ElbridgeColby Let me ask you a basic question, Bridge: Is there literally anything that is going on elsewhere in the world that the US should be involved with, as in "defending" interests there at some cost? Seems to me the transportation of goods, esp oil, through the Red Sea to Europe

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Some thoughts about a new provocative essay by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands about the prospects for China invading Taiwan in the next few years. (I've attached the essay, which is on the webpage of Foreign Policy, below.) The piece makes some very important points:

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Could China Get What It Wants Just by "Blockading" Taiwan (i.e., without having to invade)? Jeff Steele offers a thoughtful comment to my posting regarding whether China is gearing up for an invasion of Taiwan. Accepting my argument that an invasion is extremely unlikely,

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@ElbridgeColby A few weeks back, Bridge, you talked about prudence. You and I in zooms have talked a lot about this concept (phronesis in Aristotle). You are mixing up here prudence and getting slowly caught up in a quagmire through gradualism, as in Vietnam. Once again, your history is

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@monkeyshines6 Wait SupFellas, is this building 18 of the main CIA complex, or building 18.015 of the underground complex, constructed, according to inside information I've seen from BC, to house the 7.3 billion NAFO dog cartoon cut-up images and the 650 employees needed to manage the massive

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

12 days

@policytensor Let me just quote, since quotations say a lot about one's perspective on world politics, from the opening paragraph of your long article (the one I just responded to): "There is an actual war launched by the Biden Democrats that is destroying Ukraine as a functioning society."

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

21 days

@ElbridgeColby Perhaps true, but in the absence of any statistics or evidence, this is just one more unverified assertion that makes you look like you have GOP support for you "Asia is the short-term priority" logic, such as it is. But done forget two important facts, Bridge: 1). The

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

11 days

Part Four of "Will China Invade Taiwan within the Next Five Years?" Today's "Episode": The Deeper Causal Roots of the U.S.-China-Taiwan Situation. Hi All, Here's the first installment of my long-promised (well, three days ago) Part 4 of my series on the conditions

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

[This is my strong-worded reply to Elbridge Colby's two postings expressing outrage that Robert Kagan, in a WPost article, would claim that EC would have the US divest from helping Ukraine to put all its resources toward China (a policy RK disagrees with). I also reply to EC's

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@ElbridgeColby @washingtonpost The point is simple Bridge: No one is asking the US to fight "two major wars" at once. That's a classic red herring. Only to provide support for deterrence in both Europe and Asia at the same time -- to prevent Putin from thinking that the West is weak in resolve (the

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

23 days

A Reply to Dmitri Alperovitch's Posting of Concern about a "Chinese national driving a speedboat up a Taiwanese river" until it was caught by Taiwanese officials. He calls it a "real-world test" of China's invasion plans. @DAlperovitch . Greg Lawson saw this post as

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

15 days

[Hi All, As I was preparing for releasing Part 3 of my series on "Will China Invade Taiwan within the Next Five Years?", I happened upon a post from none other than Bridge Colby, showing his agreement with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall's remarks that the evidence is clear

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ElbridgeColby Ummm, Bridge. (Hey Kids! This is #237 in the "Ummm, Bridge" series if you're keeping track. Collect all 6,458!! ....(I'm kidding; just started this specific series today, but it feels like I've done this about 235 times over the last two months and never got a reply, so the

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@Harry1940610 @IndrekLobus Well, by my count, if you use the word "times six" it has, at the very least, seven more letters than "pro bono". Now that, to me -- and again I'm no math genius -- is a gain of almost 100% over just "pro bono" alone. So whether we're talking "six times" or "almost two times"

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

Starting the Debate on Realism and US-China Relations (Part I: What is Realism?) Hi All. This is the first quick posting to provoke some discussion on the question of how different realist theories might address the question of contemporary US-China relations and the conditions

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

12 days

@policytensor Let me just focus on the first premise: that Biden "launched a war against Ukraine", and that Trump kept us out of a war. Seriously, Anusar, I'm starting to doubt your sanity or perhaps whether Russian propaganda bots have got to you. (Hope it's just the latter, and here

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

Hi All. I thought I'd follow up on my discussion of the philosophic foundations of International Relations theory (IRT) by exploring how different schools of realism (a broad paradigm with multiple "theories" within it) draw implicitly or explicitly from philosophic insights

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

[Hi All. David Goldman posted an interesting chart showing how China's exports to the Global South (GS) over the last two decades have doubled (in dollar terms) while exports to the developed world (DW) have gone up by a quarter, such that China now exports more to the GS than

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ElbridgeColby Ummm, Bridge...( #240 ). Oh good. I see now you are an expert not just in foreign affairs, but domestic economics. Did it ever occur to you that while Mr. T's irresponsible policies during the first year of Covid -- not encouraging masking, helping people deny the value of

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Do Sanctions Against Aggressors like Russia Work? As you know from some of my posts, there have been claims (I can't call them arguments) from the Taiwan/East Asian alarmists -- you know of whom I speak -- that sanctions don't work. Their evidence: that Russia's economy

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ElbridgeColby @ElbridgeColby @AdamKinzinger @HelenClarkNZ @bill_emmott @ProfPaulPoast Ummm, Bridge...( #243 ). Are you kidding me, bro? This, coming from a man that helped the GOP delay and delay aid packages for Ukraine, who even opposed aid for his precious project -- more aid for Taiwan

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@ElbridgeColby @MearsheimerJ Hi All. I'm posting an excellent interview with John Mearsheimer that appeared about 11 months ago and has (so far) received about 1.6 million views (!). The first part provides a good overview of realism in general (not just John's more

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

Is China Readying to Take the Philippines First, Even Before Invading Taiwan?! Oh My!! @RnaudBertrand @ElbridgeColby Hi All, You perhaps saw my reply yesterday to Bridge-Colby-follower Michael Turton, saying that China would militarily absorb the Philippines when it took

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

NAFO Fellas, Unite! The Question of Taiwan is Intimately Related to the Question of Ukraine, so We need the Pack to Fight on Two Fronts Simultaneously. I know NAFO fellas are obsessed with fighting Russia's insidious propaganda machine, and rightly so. But in my series

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

"Objective Debate on Realism and US-China Relations" (Part II: Overview of How Different Realisms See Contemporary Sino-American Relations) @AdamKinzinger @HelenClarkNZ Hi All. Yesterday I posted Part I, which simply provided a description of the "Big Four" realist

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

13 days

Regarding Part 4 of my Series on "Will China Invade Taiwan within the Next Five Years?" plus a reply to Dmitri Alperovitz re Part 3 and its new Diagram Interacting China's Character Type with its External Situation. [Hi All, Thanks so much for all the great feedback

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

17 days

@ElbridgeColby Agreed, Bridge. It is important not to provoke China as we build up the US (and Taiwanese) deterrence posture in East Asia. Washington has made it clear to Taipei that it strongly opposes any "declaration of independence" (whether it follows the T Jefferson model or not!)

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Further Evidence on What Xi Jinping is Really Concerned About Hi All, In the midst of continued alarmist talk that China is gearing up to invade Taiwan, we see the announcement (below) that the country of Georgia is choosing a Chinese company to build and operate its deep

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

Hi All. I want to reply briefly to Bridge's recent posting. But first, thanks to everyone who have given me feedback on my comments re US-China, Xi's character type, and my long(ish) analyses of which historical great power systems most parallel the current one with US-China.

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

"Debate on Realism and US-China" (Part III: Dynamic Realism vs the Other Realisms re the Threat of China over the Long Term) Hi All. Have a breather from the NAFO-BC craziness, so thought I'd put out a (relatively!) short analysis of how my dynamic realist argument differs from

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

11 days

Here's a response to Bill Wohlforth of Dartmouth University re the question: Can Putin's Willingness to Stay in a Bogged-Down War Be Explained by Anything Other than Non-Realist, Non-Rational Thinking? [Hi All, I thought I'd repost my reply to Bill with an upfront

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

14 days

@policytensor No question, PT, that to some degree China's sense of its external environment -- its claims that the US is out to keep China bottled up in its area (geographically disadvantage and thus leveraged by China's need for access to raw materials and markets) -- is genuine. No

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Should Ukraine be Allowed to Hit Russian Missile Sites Inside Russia that are Being Used to Hit Kharkiv and its Surrounding Area? There is a big debate right now within NATO about whether Ukraine's army should be allowed to use US and EU-supplied high-tech missiles to hit

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@Publius_7_1776 Wow, Bridge. Going after Adam Kinzinger because he challenges you to show the logical validity of your theory and thus your credentials as a "scholar" of great power politics and foreign policy. (Kinzinger, along with Liz Cheney, is one of the few individuals in your party to

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Dale Copeland

1 month

@fellarific @IndrekLobus Exactly. Thanks for confirming my math Fellarific. Plato himself had a sign above the entrance to his Academy in Athens: "May No Person Ignorant of Mathematics Enter Here" (OK, the Greek word was "geometry", but back then, following Pythagoras, it was essentially the same

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

29 days

Are China and the United States "Destined for War"? A Very Enlightening SCMP Interview with Harvard Professor Graham Allison. Many of you know Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard, and his two main book, Essence of Decision (1971) on ways to

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

The Impact of New US Tariffs on the US-China Peace. Since my new book, A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China, makes the argument that commercial dependence can both keep the peace and increase the probability of war,

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Hi All, I thought it might be fun to start a series of posts that investigate the best historical parallels to the current US-China relationship, and then see to what extent one can draw lessons from these comparisons. Such parallels are important because (a) they

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Since I've only been on X for a month, many of those who have connected in the last two weeks may not have seen the review of A World Safe for Commerce by Yale historian Paul Kennedy (author, of course, of the seminal The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1500-2000) that came

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

Hi All. Just wanted to take this opportunity to apologize for the strong tone and some of the sarcastic comments of my recent postings directed at Bridge Colby's posting on his X site. As one of my colleagues at UVa reminded me today, X can get one's emotions riled up, and

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

Hi All. This weekend, probably today, there will be the votes in the House of Representatives on the Ukraine and Taiwan military aid bills. Critical moment in history, I believe. So if you feel so inclined, please repost some of my postings over the last couple of days to

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Hi All, Below is an interview on the new book, A World Safe for Commerce with John Glaser for the Power Problems forum/podcast that he runs. The discussion is fairly long, so obviously feel free to skip around. When I get through teaching and hosting a speaker (end of the

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

A nice screen shot of a NYT article provided by Kev M that fundamentally disproves B Colby's, Good Shepherd's (was "Swiss Shepherd"), and others' assertions that (a) aid to Ukraine takes away from the ability of the US to project power and resolve in East Asia, i.e., to

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@policytensor Hi All, In case you missed it, I just want to repost Anusar's (Policy Tensor's) thoughtful and thorough response to my posting last night. Read it carefully, and set it and my piece against the dangerous and alarmist rantings of Bridge Colby. My piece, to summarize very

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

Reply to Greg L. re the First World War case Greg Lawson penned a nice response to my posting this morning re whether the First World War has important parallels to US-R today re Ukraine. I had argued the B Colby got this case wrong: it was not an war that nobody wanted

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

Hi everyone, Not sure if you saw this cover story in The Wire China, but thought it might be of interest. It is edited-down version of the last half of my final chapter in A World Safe for Commerce on the future of US-China relations. Chloe Fox, the editor of The Wire

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

[Hi All, I've been caught up in a debate about whether the China situation today re Taiwan/Southeast Asia is parallel to Nazi Germany. Will get to my fifth installment about Rome-Persia 60 BCE to 200 CE tomorrow. Here's the second reply to "Swiss Shepherd," who argued in

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

1 month

@MechaNoot You sussed out the foundational source of my sense of humor, Ben -- being a teenager in Canada growing up learning Monty Python routines by heart with my friends. (Ask me to do the King Arthur's lines when he meets the peasant "Dennis" in the filth of the opening scenes of Holy

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

HI all, I think I forgot a couple of weeks back to also post this nice review of A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China in the Wall Street Journal by Paul Kennedy, considered one of the top diplomatic historians from the last

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Dale Copeland

3 months

Hi All, Since today is Easter Sunday, I thought I'd take this opportunity to wax philosophic about the ontological foundations of international relations theory. Ontology of course is just a Greek-derived word meaning the study of fundamental reality. And I've been wanting

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

2 months

@ConservaWonk @ElbridgeColby @ianellisjones @IndoPacPodcast Actually, Greg, I'm glad you're pressing me to clarify my position. I pride myself on multi-factor, multiple-objective analysis within a trade-off framework for rational security-maximizing actors (and perhaps why in our better moments we see eye-to-eye on the importance of a

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Dale Copeland

4 months

{Hi All. Below is my reply to Bridge Colby's re-posting this morning of what is clearly a factually inaccurate view that the Chinese no longer care about getting trade through the Malacca Strait (between Malaysia and Indonesia). Correcting this incorrect view is absolutely

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Dale Copeland

3 months

[Hi All, I found my hand forced again. I've been staying away from responding to Bridge Colby's repostings that imply the world agrees with him. But he reposted a rather silly little cartoon with a knight killing a straw man, implying that yours truly and other supposedly high

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Dale Copeland

1 month

What are Economic Sanctions Supposed to "Do" Anyway? Ringo F asked a good question this morning, one much discussed in the field of International Relations (IR), essentially: Aren't economic sanctions supposed to change the other state's behavior, and if Russia hasn't stop

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Dale Copeland

18 days

Quick Additional Comment to my X Post Yesterday entitled "Will China Invade Taiwan within Five Years? Part 1" Hi All, I had planned today to write a follow-on episode on this new series on China and Taiwan, but given the great feedback I've received, I'm reworking some of

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Dale Copeland

1 month

The Huge Economic Impact of a China-Taiwan War on China I'm reposting a chart on the impact of a China invasion of Taiwan on the GDP levels of different countries, including of course on China itself. The chart was put up by Michael Arouret @MichaelAArouet just three days

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

3 months

@Dalzell60 Exactly right, Michael. This piece is written by individuals draw simplistic analogies to the Reagan era, and forget that in the fall of 1983 we almost got into a nuclear war with Russia because of the fear that Reagan's policies caused in Moscow. REAGAN learned, and realized

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Dale Copeland

4 months

[Here's a recent reply of mine to Elbridge Colby's/Niall Ferguson's arguments that we are neglecting "guns" because we too focused on domestic spending ("butter"), and the implicit point that the budget deficits are hurting our ability to do what is necessary to defend the

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

4 months

{Just realized I never posted directly my reply to Bridge Colby accurate point that China will need to flood the world with exported products because they have too much production capability at home relative to domestic consumption -- Lenin's point from 1917. In order, this

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Dale Copeland

1 month

@paigeinkansas Yes indeed Paige!

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Dale Copeland

19 days

Vladimir Putin versus Xi Jinping and the Question of Rationality and Character [Hi All, I will indeed be posting something on China-Taiwan later today (including a discussion of Dmitri Alperovitch's excellent new book). But for now, let me post my reply to Peter

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Dale Copeland

1 month

Interview with Stephen Sklenda, Deputy Head of US Indo-Pacific Command (on Australian TV): Bottom-line: The Real Worry Regarding China's Recent Exercises is not China Attacking Taiwan, but Possibility of Inadvertent Escalation Hi All, Thought you might be interested

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Dale Copeland

12 days

@kazzubc @ElbridgeColby @Policy_Exchange Kazu, I respect your willingness to put yourself out there, as an academic, to defend Bridge Colby's view of the world. You are the only academic that I know of that is willing to do this. So I admire your courage in trying to defend what I see as the indefensible -- a

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Dale Copeland

2 months

The Question of China's Economic Dependence [Hi All, Here's a brief reply to Anusar (Policy Tensor)'s chart that, like a number of X postings lately, seek to argue that China is really not that dependent on global commerce -- with the implication that the third pillar of

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@Copela1492

Dale Copeland

17 days

New Review of A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy from the Revolution to the Rise of China (Princeton UP, 2024). Hi All, For those who might be interested, this new review just came out today by Michael Holmes in Responsible Statecraft. MH covers covers

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