Troy Franklin is exactly why you should never have your rookie drafts before the NFL draft.
I’d be sick if I spent a first round pick on a player who gets drafted on day 3.
Larry Fitzgerald holds the 2nd most receptions and receiving yards in NFL history.
He ran a 4.63 40 time at the combine.
And you think 40 time matters?
There are currently 4 RBs with >1000yds rushing
CMC
Kyren Williams
James Cook
Mostert
All are “small backs” near or less than 200 pounds
RIP “Fade small RBs”.
Through 3 weeks, Baker Mayfield has a 52% completion percentage and has made CMC and DJ Moore mostly irrelevant.
Kyle Allen was better for CMC and DJM. No words.
Career plays of >49 yards
Gurley 9
Barkley 8
Hunt 6
Zeke 4
DJ 4
Bell 3
Gordon 3
Kamara 2
CMC 2
Chubb 2
Fournette 2
Barkley should be the 1.01 in every league format.
Rookie RBs that started week 1 as the 3rd string RBs but finished year as starters
David Johnson
Alvin Kamara
Nick Chubb
Phillip Lindsay
Notable 2019 3rd stringers
Darwin Thompson
Darrell Henderson
Justice Hill
Dexter Williams
Javonte Williams has 17 less carries than JK Dobbins had as a rookie.
JW
117 att, 568yds, 3TDs, 27 rec, 193yds
JKD
134 att, 805yds, 9TDs, 18 rec, 120yds
Dobbins’ rookie year was far more worthy of the hype that Williams is getting.
Antonio Brown 1st 3 yrs
249 tar, 151 rec, 2062yds, 7TDs
Stefon Diggs
291 tar, 200 rec, 2472yds, 15TDs
Few WRs profile to take an AB path, Diggs is one of those WRs
Including playoffs,
Tyler Lockett final stats:
61 rec, 1085yds, 10TDs
Only 77 targets, 4.5 per game.
18RBs, 62 WRs, and 15TEs averaged more targets per game than Lockett.
Embarrassing stat for SEA play callers.
Bryan Edwards is 2020’s Jarvis Landry. An overlooked prospect in a deep class that you can grab in the late 2nd-early 3rd of rookie drafts. The fact that he’s an Eric Decker clone is the icing on the cake.
Jerry Rice (age 33) owns the greatest PPR WR season ever. 406 pts, 25.4 ppg
Cooper Kupp has 335 pts, 25.7 ppg (thru week13) on pace to break the record set in 1996.
Jonathan Taylor is having a tremendous year but not buying all this 2022 RB1
talk.
PPR PPG
JT
2020: 16.9
2021: 21.2
CMC
2018: 23.8
2019: 29.3
2020: 30.1
2021: 19.8
As long as the game is PPR, CMC is the RB1
Lockett is currently the 20th highest paid WR, $10.2M in 2020.
The 2 highest paid are Julio Jones $22M, Michael Thomas $19.25M.
Here’s what each has done with their last 180+ reg SZN targets
MT: 149 rec, 1725yds, 9TDs
JJ: 118rec, 1642yds, 9TDs
TL: 139 rec, 2022yds, 18TDs
Andrew Luck threw 39TDs and his leading scorers were TE Eric Ebron (12) and TY Hilton (6).
Mahomes just threw 41TDs with 33yo TE Kelce (12) and RB McKinnon (9) leading.
“If only this QB has an alpha WR” is a cop out.
Elite QBs get it done. It’s not a pass catcher problem.
In 2016, MIN released Mike Wallace and drafted Laquon Treadwell w/ the 23rd pick. He was expected to take over as WR1. He totaled 15yds as a rookie while previous yr 5th round pick Stefon Diggs and Undrafted Adam Thielen took over.
Don’t write the 2022 depth charts in pen.
Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore are very talented but so is Corey Davis.
Davis is in his prime WR age and could very well lead the NYJ in receiving. He is also the best ADP value of the 3…
Blake Jarwin
Wasn’t special in college
Went undrafted
Is at best the 5th option in DAL
His HC doesn’t feature TEs
Check your process. This is a low ceiling TE pick
Some 2018 pt leaders after 3 weeks
Will Fuller: 61pts
Golden Tate: 52pts
Javorius Allen: 47pts
Isaiah Crowell: 47pts
Jesse James: 36pts
None of them finished Top 24. Things can change quickly. Lot of football left.
Including the playoffs, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf have played in 23 games together
Lockett
166 tar, 125 rec, 1597yds, 13TDs
Metcalf
153 tar, 91 rec, 1615yds, 13TDs
No one cares.. but I can’t stop airing this grievance.
Dear Yahoo,
You graded my team with the 2nd worst draft grade and my co-workers questioned my skills. They don’t anymore.
11-2, Week 14 bye
If we knew Kyle Pitts was going to be the next Travis Kelce and Ja’Marr Chase was the next DeAndre Hopkins, you’re drafting Pitts over Chase every time.
There’s really no player in this class with a higher ceiling than Pitts.
Todd Gurley tore his ACL in college in Nov before being drafted the following year. Same as Jonathan Brooks.
TG played 13 games his rookie year, finished as RB7/9 .5/PPR, would have been RB13 in 2023.
This is within JB’s range of outcomes, could be a star in fantasy playoffs.
Before you re-rank the 2020 Dynasty class,,, Don’t write anything in pen
4 weeks into 2014, Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin looked like the best WRs. OBJ hadn’t played a game. Bishop Sankey>Devonta Freeman
Mathews/Lee/Latimer>Adams/Arob/Landry
We really know nothing yet
Melvin Gordon
332 ruyds, 4.7 ypc, 13rec, 119reyds, 9.2ypr, 2TDS
Javonte Williams
300 ruyds, 4.6ypc, 14rec, 90reyds, 6.4ypr, 1TD, fumble
Nothing is more irritating than fantasy trying to put players out to pasture prematurely.
Philip Rivers is 5 TDs shy of 10 straight years of 26 or more TDs. For perspective, Montana had 6 such seasons, Jim Kelly had 1, Troy Aikman never topped 23TDs.
Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs are both sitting inside the Top 6 scoring WRs. Both were drafted outside the Top 20 despite the fact neither has missed a Top 20 finish in 3 years.
Lessons learned: Bet on “talent” and proven track record should have applied.
How good was Peyton Manning? In 2009, he threw for 4500yds, 33TDs.
His leading receivers were 31yo Reggie Wayne and 30yo Dallas Clark
Both had +100 receptions, +1100yds, 10TDs
Dak: 4449yds, 37TDs Lamb/Cooper
Burrow: 4611yds, 34TDs Chase/Higgins
Respect Peyton Manning.
Last year, Jarvis Landry and Allen Robinson were easy picks to outperform their WR24 ADP, both finished Top 12.
This year the WRs outside WR24 ADP w/ Top 12 upside: Lockett, AJ Green, TY Hilton and Will Fuller.
DK Metcalf’s rookie year
100 tar, 58 rec, 900yds, 7TDs
DeVonta Smith
94 tar, 58 rec, 821yds, 5TDs
79yds, 2TDs is all Smith needs to match Metcalf’s rookie year
Despite an inferior QB, no benefit from drawn coverage (Metcalf had Lockett) and weighing 65 pounds less.
Mahomes passed for 5250yds, 41TDs to this group of pass catchers
Kelce
Juju
MVS
Hardman
Moore
2024 he has
Kelce
Rice
Hollywood Brown
Worthy
Juju
Moore
How does he not go nuclear? and why didn't I draft more of him?
Antonio Brown averaged 11 targets per game over 5 years in Todd Haley’s offense. Landry is averaging 12 through 3 games. I got shade for saying Landry will play the AB role w/ Haley. It’s happening.
Aging Perennial stud WRs
Age in 2023
Tyreek: 29
Diggs: 30 (November)
Cooks: 30
Evans: 30
Adams: 30
Kupp: 30
Hopkins: 31
Lockett: 31
Keenan: 31
The Dynasty ageists will be tilting when several of these finish as top scorers.
Greg Roman has been an OC in the NFL for 8 seasons. During that time he has ONLY 7 +300yd passing games.
Lamar Jackson has 2 of those and one was in a blowout loss to TEN in the playoffs.
I can’t get on board with this offense changing because they drafted Rashod Bateman.
Julio Jones is currently the PPR WR5. Lock to finish Top 12/WR1 if he plays the last 2 games. Take out his injured 2013 and he’s finished Top 24 every year, Top 12 in 7 of 9 seasons. Truly ELITE fantasy player
CMC scored 26.1 pts last week without scoring a TD. JT’s highest scoring game without a TD is 17.6 pts.
No player offers a higher floor or ceiling than CMC. It’s not debatable.
@robertkschmitz
This isn’t new. All of this is listed as weaknesses in his draft profile. Fields struggled with this in college and it’s probably why he dropped in the draft.
Buying Deebo Samuel for the same reason I bought DJ Moore going into year 2
Rookie year
DeAndre Hopkins
91 tar, 52 rec, 802yds, 2TDs
DJ Moore
82 tar, 55 rec, 788yds, 2TDs, 172ruyds
Deebo Samuel
81 tar, 57 rec, 802yds, 6TDs
159ruyds
ADP
Evans WR8
Godwin WR18
OJH TE5
Since 2000, only Peyton and Romo have supported 2 Top 20WRs and a Top 5 TE. One or more of these 3 wont live up to ADP. I’m taking the under on TB because Winston is no Peyton or Romo.
It’s time to buy low on Derrick Henry
Mark Ingram at same point of career
37 games, 12 starts
4.1ypc, 1462yds, 24rec, 143yds, 11TDs
Henry
38 games, 11 starts
4.1ypc, 1507yds, 30rec, 322yds, 12TDs
Hot taek that shouldn’t be.
ATL offense is just as good as CLE
Julio>OBJ
Ridley/Sanu>Landry/Callaway
Hooper>Njoku
Freeman/Ito<Chubb/Hunt/Duke(?)
Matt Ryan will outscore Baker Mayfield in 2019
When Yahoo gave me the 2nd worst draft grade in my office league, a Co-worker said, “I thought you were good at this?”
I’m 8-0, most pts scored.
Sorry Yahoo.
If you think Amari Cooper is a Bust, you’re assuming he’s a Complete Outlier. No WR has accomplished what he has in his age 21-22 seasons and failed to match those again in his career.
OAK will make a point to target him more soon...
Sources:
#Browns
WR Antonio Callaway is being suspended 4 games for a violation of the NFL’s substance abuse policy. He had been appealing this ruling. This may party explain why he’s been running with the reserves.
Allen Lazard has scored 14TDs from 159 targets.
Jordy Nelson scored 6TDs through 149 targets.
Lazard is an undrafted 27yo WR who "hasn't earned targets" through his career.
A +10TD szn is absolutely in Lazard's range of outcomes despite what the projectionists tell you.
Allen Robinson has 3 Top 12 finishes in his career. He’s played with, arguably, back up level QBs his entire career.
Now he gets the only QB (Stafford) who has thrown +1900yds to a WR, twice.
ARob should be a steal in both dynasty and redraft.