Chins @Chins1729 Twitter profile

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Chins

3 months

Shared a long form post on an SME company, New Jaisa: Not investment advice, wanted to share insights from meeting management and a site visit.

NewJaisa Technologies: A D2C Refurbished Electronics Play

Elevator Pitch Having met the promoter and management a few times now, and following a site visit to their plant, I would like to introduce NewJaisa to this forum. I believe it possesses: A passion...

forum.valuepickr.com

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Deepak Nitrite has become a market darling over the last years, but how much do you know about its sister company? Despite the name, only 10% of Deepak Fertilizer's profits come from fertilizers. A short thread on why the company is actually a proxy play on infra. 1/14

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@Chins1729

2 years

PDS Limited, the second biggest position in my portfolio. An under-owned, 40% RoCE, negative working capital company available at cheap starting valuations. They have a rich story spanning twenty years, and form a play on fashion outsourcing. A mega thread.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Deepak Fertilizer saw six years of pain for it's NPK division. Margins that were normally around 10% vanished for more than half a decade. A thread on India's history with urea based fertilizers and Deepak Fert's complete transformation. Guest starring Mr. Vijay Mallya. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

Currently studying a company that has numbers so ugly on Screener that not many will look further. At 1.3x sales, I find the valuations very attractive for a luxury brand retailer, with an e-commerce platform to boot. A high level introduction to Arvind Fashions. 1/

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Chins

@Chins1729

10 months

There is a potential trigger for the Indian shrimp sector looming in the next year. The United States is considering import duties on four countries: India, Ecuador, Indonesia and Vietnam. The fine print is extremely important, and could mark an end to the downcycle. A thread.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Currently studying a nanocap 150 Cr. company, with 65 Cr. in cash and 45% EBITDA margins. Bet is entirely on the promoter to carve out a TAM, who is very very conservative with capital allocation. Write up soon, also studying all the SME IPOs of the last 5 years.

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@Chins1729

1 year

PDS Limited has managed to make 40% ROCEs during headwinds. Yet it remains one of the least understood businesses in the market. I have presented two years of hard work on the company to Valuepickr Europe.

PDS Ltd - A fashion outsourcing opportunity?

PDS is a company that headhunts talent, bringing on entrepreneurs as new subsidiaries. This video explores their two new product offerings, and the growth ru...

www.youtube.com

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

In 2018, the RBI introduced a framework for banks and NBFCs to join hands and lend to the MSME sector. Today I want to talk about a listed fintech startup that is sculpting the landscape for co-lending in India. This is an introduction to Ugro Capital, my largest holding. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

For my companies, I am constantly searching for data to better understand them. Today I would like to present my biggest and best finding so far in 2022: An enormous tender that Krsnaa Diagnostics has bid for. It can potentially generate >200 Cr. should they win the bid. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

Every company in my portfolio has some underlying cycle to it. Instead of searching for secular stories, I've embraced this cyclicity, and work to identify and play these underlying cycles to outperform the index. A thread on a few ideas that could possibly see recovery in 2023

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@Chins1729

2 years

I have been working on Krsnaa Diagnostics with @DeenarToraskar and @AnishA_Moonka . We have found many new insights on what could go right for them in 2023. A short thread on possible tender wins and their project pipeline. 1/n

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Chins

@Chins1729

10 months

Spoke to the zonal head at one of the innerwear companies in India, who spent the entire call praising Dollar Industries' business model. Notes below: If you want to understand Dollar, search for @Ankush__Agrawal on the concalls.🫡

Dollar Industries ltd - Fit Hai Boss

I think there is a deep structural shift in Dollar Industries currently underway. The gravity of this shift has been missed by the broader market. Claim: Dollar Industries has the right to win...

forum.valuepickr.com

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Let's talk Screener setups. What are some of your favourite custom ratios that you use most often on @screener_in ? If we have enough people contribute, will make a list of useful ratios. @sahil_vi @suru27 @itsTarH @theHarshFolio @AnishA_Moonka Two simple ones from me: 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

I'm a fan of having a mix of plays in my portfolio: 1. Facing headwinds and are becoming cheaper. 2. Not cheap, but having structural tailwinds. 3. Cyclical tailwinds and cheap valuations. 4. Turnarounds where the numbers do not look good & valuations reflect this. 5. GARP. 1/8

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Chins

@Chins1729

6 months

Camphor: commodity dark horse for FY25? India imports a large portion of Camphor's RM from Brasil, where there is talk of lower supply. Indeed, imports of this RM from Jan-March have been the lowest in six years. Camphor prices could start to increase in Q1 going forward.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

I had a conversation with the founder of PropEquity last week. Companies listed on the SME index often have little to no information about them, and almost everything is found through scuttlebutt. A window into the business, and the nascent Prop Tech industry. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

An excellent thread on Aditya Vision by @sahil_vi , and notes from a management meet from a few days ago. Do give it a read, especially when there isn't much information on the business model out there. (I have a tracking position)

See the bright Sun: Aditya Vision

A bunch of us met AVL management few days ago. Here are the notes: Q: What is the story of Aditya Vision? A: Started in 1999 with 1 store. Didnt go out of patna. Condition was poor in rst of bihar....

forum.valuepickr.com

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Good news from Deepak Nitrite. Very happy with disclosures made to the exchanges. Closure notice revoked, gradually will resume working in stages.

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Chins

@Chins1729

1 year

If you have absolutely nothing to say, but still want to make a statement, Incred's latest report on Avanti shows how it's done. The 'Our view' section is a particularly nice read.

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Chins

@Chins1729

10 months

Sorry to say, but if this is your takeaway, I don't think you understand banks, NBFCs, or the co-lending model. The transcript says @nirvana_laha asked the question, but it was me. He's answering a specific question on co-lending, and the benefits of lending via this model for

Aditya Shah

@AdityaD_Shah

10 months

Ugro Capital:- Clearly says Banks have a lower cost of funds NBFCs are in no position to compete with banks NBFCs now need to collaborate with banks! Conclusion:- Donta buy NBFCs are irrational valuations The business models are very vulnerable

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@Chins1729

2 years

Shared some thoughts on why Laurus has seen a large correction, and why I wouldn't buy into this fall.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Why are Krsnaa Diagnostics' Q3 revenues flat, and what do they need for growth to come back? A short update on the nuances behind the numbers. 1/5

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@Chins1729

2 years

Morganite Crucible held a private meeting with a PMS fund last month, but uploaded a transcript to the exchanges. Great practice! A nice explainer on the business, it contained a fun fact: Ferrari's F1 team uses their product to hold molten aluminium while building engines.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Very impressed with silent improvements from @soicfinance • 116 page deck, each slide had curated highlights, images, well formatted text. Kudos to the design team! Learnt a lot of new things across the sector, and will go back to the recording for future reference.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Apollo Finvest's annual report is a fever dream. 30 pages of memes and emojis.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Krsnaa Diagnostics just won an enormous tender in the state of Odisha. By my estimates, this tender is worth 100 Cr. of revenue annually. FY22 revenues were 450 Cr. For those who have been following my posts, details of this particular tender are in the post below.

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Tenders: There are 600 Cr. worth of tenders that are currently accepting bids. • 200-300 Cr. tender in Rajasthan. • 100 Cr. pathology tender in Odisha. • 2x50 Cr. tenders in Assam and MP. All of these will go through evaluation in 2023. 6/n

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@Chins1729

2 years

In view of Laurus' standout quarter from the Synthesis division, I'm reminded of a comment one of my favourite investors on Valuepickr made a few months ago:

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@Chins1729

2 years

9 months and a lot of drama later, curtains drawing to a close on this development. Krsnaa Diagnostics is the only technically qualified bidder in the Rajasthan contract. The financial bids have been opened one hour ago, Krsnaa is the L1 bidder. All that remains is the

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

For my companies, I am constantly searching for data to better understand them. Today I would like to present my biggest and best finding so far in 2022: An enormous tender that Krsnaa Diagnostics has bid for. It can potentially generate >200 Cr. should they win the bid. 1/

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Read through this amazing book in one sitting. Authors put a lot of work into telling incredible stories of how powerful commodity traders controlled markets, made deals at the epicenter of conflicts, and how they altered the geopolitical landscape over time. 10/10

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Many IPOs from last year were rightly ignored by seasoned investors due to obscene valuations. Have been revisiting this space as valuations have since cooled. What companies do you think have been overlooked since listing? Sharing three I'm currently studying below:

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@Chins1729

2 years

Caplin Steriles is just simple enough to provide a case study on what an injectables portfolio looks like. Insights like these are often in expensive market research reports, but I think it's better shared publicly. Here's a data backed look into their growth strategy. 1/11

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Chins

@Chins1729

1 year

PS: for those who are interested in the Harvard case study, I've uploaded it here:

PDS Limited - A platform for entrepreneurs

There has been a lot of interest in the HBS case study. I’ve uploaded it to this link:

forum.valuepickr.com

Chins

@Chins1729

1 year

PDS Limited has managed to make 40% ROCEs during headwinds. Yet it remains one of the least understood businesses in the market. I have presented two years of hard work on the company to Valuepickr Europe.

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@Chins1729

1 year

I had a conversation on Ugro Capital and co-lending with a large public sector bank. Notes below:

Ugro Capital - Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value

I had a conversation with the head of co-lending at a large PSU bank. They have interacted with Ugro daily for the last two years. Key pointers from the discussion: On Co-Lending Co lending uptake...

forum.valuepickr.com

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Chins

@Chins1729

10 months

Greetings from Lapland, Finland. Weather averaged -25°C last night, but the cloudless sky allowed for a spectacular show.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Has anyone worked on Uniparts India? Is a tractor/heavy vehicle auto-anc that does 65-70% gross margins, putting it in the same bracket as SJS or RACL Geartech. Looks very reasonable at around 10x FY23 earnings.

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@Chins1729

2 years

There are so many moving parts and cycles within Gujarat Fluorochemicals' business. One of their new age fluoropolymers currently sells for $35/kg. This is expected to fall to $14/kg pretty quickly.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Reading a very detailed report on Divi's from Morgan Stanley. They think it'll take until FY25 to reach profits seen last year. That's how extraordinary FY22 was. D: No investments, would love to own it someday.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Industry scuttlebutt suggests Shivalik Bimetals may be the lowest cost supplier of low ohmic shunts 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆. A badly made shunt is worthless and unreliable; beam welding is a complex process on technique and metallurgy. If you're from the industry, please reach out!

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@Chins1729

2 years

Why even run screeners when the suggestions on the landing page are this good.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Krsnaa Diagnostics may have just won another state-wide tender. Will have confirmation at 1pm tomorrow.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

I hope you found this introduction useful. Please consider re-tweeting the first tweet below. For those interested, long read with more details at:

Deepak Fertilizers and Petrochemicals

Listening to investor meet, we have a rich exposition of each vertical. I’d like to share my notes, and add on to what @phreakv6, @vishalprasad and @mrkakade have written about higher up in the...

forum.valuepickr.com

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Deepak Nitrite has become a market darling over the last years, but how much do you know about its sister company? Despite the name, only 10% of Deepak Fertilizer's profits come from fertilizers. A short thread on why the company is actually a proxy play on infra. 1/14

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@Chins1729

2 years

Caplin's injectables subsidiary is a 70% gross margin business. Funnily, they spend more on R&D than on raw materials.* Question to friends who track the company: how are they able to do 70% gross margins when Gland, Gufic and Sakar can only do 45-50%?!

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@Chins1729

2 years

Don't let FOMO drive your investment decisions. A short thread on the volatility behind Deepak Fert's amazing results. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

In my opinion, Spark Capital has the best reports in the country. They've explained how various pressures have affected cement realisations, leading to Q2FY23 being one of the worst quarters. Despite this, valuations for the large cap pack are very expensive.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Ayush and I spoke to an industry expert who has a large presence in the PPP diagnostics space & has gone head to head with Krsnaa Diagnostics. How has the industry evolved? What is it like bidding for tenders, and working B2G? Notes below

Krsnaa Diagnostics - what is the diagnosis?

Thanks to @aga.ayush11, have been doing more groundwork on Krsnaa with him. Sharing high level takeaways from a call with an industry expert. Context: They are a low cost diagnostics company, they...

forum.valuepickr.com

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Every time I come across something new on Shivalik, it's been covered in incredible depth on the VP thread from atleast a year ago. Realised that shunts are used in combustion engine vehicles, and hybrids of all kinds. Image 2 - an incredible post on VP from last year.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Kriti Industries is worth evaluating. Company had a fire just as RM prices rose tremendously. They were unable to convert these into finished products, and suffered inventory losses. Now, it looks set up for three strong quarters, and valuations are reasonable. D: invested.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Pharma companies are often opaque. It's difficult for investors to understand how much a major molecule contributes to revenue - eg Paxlovid for Laurus, and Molnupiravir for Divi's are now well known. But are these the only examples of companies having one offs? Working on an

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@Chins1729

2 years

PDS Ltd. grew its earnings by 200% in FY22. How? A subsidiary carrying significant losses turned profitable. I learnt to be cognizant of such situations from this seminar on Healthcare by @AdityaKhemka5 sir:

HEALTHCARE - TIME TO INVEST OR CASH OUT? - Aditya Khemka, Incred...

Topic :- HEALTHCARE - TIME TO INVEST OR CASH OUT?Speaker :- Aditya Khemka, Incred CapitalHost :- Vikas Agrawal, AIF & PMS Experts India Pvt. Ltd. AIF & PMS E...

www.youtube.com

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@Chins1729

2 years

Want to read about new sectors? There's a wealth of information in DRHPs that are filed with SEBI. While I'll almost surely pass on the IPO, here's a very interesting read on India's out of hospital patient care. F&S estimates the market is growing at 17.5% CAGR.

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@Chins1729

2 years

𝐼𝑡 𝑑𝑖𝑑𝑛'𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑚𝑒 𝑖𝑓 𝐼 𝑜𝑤𝑛𝑒𝑑 3%, 10%, 𝑜𝑟 20%. 𝐼 𝑤𝑎𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑡𝑜 𝑏𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑑 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑠 𝑏𝑒𝑦𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑚𝑒. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐻𝐷𝐹𝐶 𝐵𝑎𝑛𝑘 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑆𝑀𝐸 𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔. Notes below

Founder Thesis

@thepodiumIn

2 years

Catch the CEO who quit his cushy job to solve the unfulfilled credit gap in the SME segment. Hear about the innovations of @CapitalUGRO which is at the forefront of the digitization of small businesses. Listen on: #podcast #fintech #msme

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@Chins1729

2 years

Deepak Fertilisers announces a demerger! Crop business will be separated from the TAN business. Finally, one can analyse the gross margin profile for TAN.

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@Chins1729

2 years

In the last few days: • 99% of Punjab contract is operational. • Himachal pathology contract is operational. Even if the last couple of quarters have been flat, I think Krsnaa Diagnostics can have a good Q4 and FY24.

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@Chins1729

10 months

None of this is investment advice. @theHarshFolio has done a lot of work on the sector, and I've enjoyed collaborating with him. Please do your own due dilligence. In the last two years, the shrimp sector has perpetually been 6 months away from revival. Perhaps this is the time.

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@Chins1729

2 years

𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘤 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘴𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘭 𝘕𝘉𝘍𝘊 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘨𝘦. 𝘐𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘢𝘥 𝘸𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨 3 𝘭𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘤, 𝘵𝘰 63 𝘵𝘰𝘥𝘢𝘺. - Ugro Capital

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@Chins1729

2 years

Krsnaa wins a tender in New Delhi. Interesting on all fronts. Probably the longest tender of 12 years, and the first for them in New Delhi.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Krsnaa's management has lowered FY23 growth guidance to 20-25%. Some thoughts, and where my investment thesis is now. Explanation for volumes ≠ realisations is that a teleradiology tender in Assam expired, and they had to offer lower prices in re-tendering. 1/

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Some thoughts on Krsnaa's results. • YoY topline is down, as Q1FY22 had 30 Cr. of covid allied income. • Excluding this, it looks like Krsnaa's core business (without covid) has been at the same 100 Cr. run rate now for a long time. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

Some red flags on Aditya Vision: on inventory, debt and interest not adding up, and the tax from the PnL not adding up to cash flows outlays. These are all pointers for further due dilligence from the community. Do not buy companies based on posts on Twitter!

bharani manoharan

@phreakv6

2 years

@Chins1729 @sahil_vi Took a stab. Some observations here.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Gujarat Themis' management explained how they don't import any raw materials, and make most things in house / source naturally. EC document tells us that they use soybean flour in the preparation of tuberculosis treatments. Chemistry is awesome!

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@Chins1729

2 years

There are multiple avenues of generating a high CAGR. My learning from @chetanphalak over the last year has been to look for the largest mispricing of value, not just growth or quality. M&MFin, Repco, Ujjivan and RBL returned >50% post their corrections. No one was looking.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Jefferies has a very nice report on Grasim and the upcoming paint foray. Nice insights into every single plant, and the backward integration that comes with them.

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@Chins1729

2 years

With any company, it's important to understand the value chain and business segments first. To those reading that find chemical names hard to remember, an easy way is to associate an end use with the chemical, and you'll never forget. In this case, our focus is on TAN. 3/14

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@Chins1729

2 years

In this thread: • Why Deepak Fert is an explosives company. • Competitive landscape. • Why they've taken on two enormous capex projects. • Antithesis pointers. Disclosure: invested from lower levels, no transactions in 6 months. 2/14

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@Chins1729

2 years

With all the stress of recent tax raids, I have decided to exclusively invest in loss making companies. Can't have an income tax search if you don't have any income.

Subramoney.com

@pvsubramanyam

2 years

I realised after 40 years of research - the only way to reduce your Income tax is to work less - and thus earn less.

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@Chins1729

10 months

Avanti is the market leader, has quality, and is going into pet care. Coastal claims to sell "value add" shrimp, and has a grain based Ethanol plant coming online soon. Sharat Industries has taken advantage of international sanctions, and has been selling to Russia. 16/z

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@Chins1729

2 years

Updates from Krsnaa Diagnostics on new centres.

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@Chins1729

2 years

India Pesticides ✔ India Insecticides ✔ We just need the incorporation of India Fungicides and India Herbicides, and I can launch my Four Horsemen of Agrichemicals smallcase.

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@Chins1729

1 year

GPIL has given a 35 Cr. loan to Prakash Industries Limited. Management has been lauded for cleaning up their balance sheet over the last four years, but this allocation of capital (albeit small compared to the overall BS) is puzzling.

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@Chins1729

2 years

@agulati115 @aveekdatta03 I hope you've found this thread helpful. I'm a pedestrian, not an expert on soil or policy. Any mistakes in interpretation are mine alone, and not the people cited above. Do not take financial advice from twitter. This said, please consider re-tweeting if you enjoyed the read.

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Deepak Fertilizer saw six years of pain for it's NPK division. Margins that were normally around 10% vanished for more than half a decade. A thread on India's history with urea based fertilizers and Deepak Fert's complete transformation. Guest starring Mr. Vijay Mallya. 1/

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@Chins1729

2 years

Always nice to see a company extoll their technological prowess, particularly with state of the art tech such as Google Drive and MS Word.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Great numbers from Deepak Fert. Q1FY22 was actually a strong quarter despite the lockdown. Growth of around 50% QoQ for comparison. Realisations are most definitely unsustainable, but will help them pare debt. I'll post a walkthrough of the investor presentation once it's out.

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@Chins1729

2 years

PDS Limited results: • Revenue of ~2900 Cr., up 34% YoY • Q2FY23 PAT of 113 Cr., up ~70% YoY While headline numbers look great, income includes 35 Cr. due to the sale of property. Adjusting for this, still their best Q2 ever.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Talking to fellow investors is hazardous to my cash position.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

In FY14, Krsnaa did 14,000 CT + MRI scans. 7 years later in FY21, they did 625,000 scans.

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Corporate video from eight years ago, shortly after Krsnaa's inception. A few familiar faces, and the same message communicated by management today. (Not a recommendation, please do not invest based on Twitter posts, and do your own research.)

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

TAN is the biggest piece of this story, and makes or breaks Deepak Fertiliser's bottom line. Coal and limestone mining companies use TAN to make explosives. They blast these mines prior to excavation. DFPCL's management explains their value proposition (image). 5/14

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@Chins1729

2 years

On Deepak Fert's concall. Focus is now on better end use for products. • Solar / steel grade nitric acid. • Medical wipes for IPA. • Total cost of operations for entire mines, not just TAN. Q2 will be a soft quarter seasonally. No guidance for H2, depends on spreads. 1/

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Here's the problem with posts like this. Gujarat Themis has two clients - Lupin and Optrix Labs. Lupin is putting up capacity in exactly the products they buy from Guj Them, Optrix Labs has been bought by a PE firm. I have skin in the game, I am invested. Know the risks.

Grandmaster of Stocks💎

@AdeptMarket

2 years

Applying common logic Here Gujarat Themis Bio - Most undervalued pharma company with compounded profit growth of 92% & Massive consistent growth in earnings (ROCE 70%, EBITDA Margins 51%) Even if it gets conservative PE of 15, can land up to 700-750

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Drama at Birlasoft: resignation of Mr. Dharmander Kapoor. I remember watching @_nirajshah 's interviews last year where Mr. Kapoor had affirmed that no key people would leave any time soon.

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@Chins1729

2 years

The question I've been asked a lot recently is how one is confident of Krsnaa being competitive in the diagnostics landscape with new entrants. It's clear why media talk is centered around 1mg and Healthians. Prices (pulled from their websites) are much lower than incumbents.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Will be interesting to see how the market reacts to results of pharma companies that produce covid related molecules. Divi's Molnupiravir revenue has gone to 0 since Q3FY23. Laurus has resumed Paxlovid shipments in Q4FY23, but the market hasn't yet cared.

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@Chins1729

2 years

I had a 10% allocation in Deepak Fert at the start of the year, which organically became larger. Now selling on risk/reward, and will keep a 3% position to play the remainder of the TAN cycle, and capex.

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Don't let FOMO drive your investment decisions. A short thread on the volatility behind Deepak Fert's amazing results. 1/

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

In FY22, TAN formed nearly 60% of the chemical revenues, and had the highest realisations. Following this, nitric acid contributed 22% of the chemical revenues, and IPA is the least interesting part of the pie. Sharing last year's revenue mix (image) 4/14

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

This week, PDS acquired 51% stake in DBS Lifestyle Ltd. PDS' model is to onboard entrepreneurs, and provide them access to clientele, funding and IT. Interestingly, this company has worked with Amazon, has a design studio in Italy, and has clients in Japan!

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Chins

@Chins1729

1 year

Confirmation came a month later: Krsnaa is the L1 bidder for a pathology contract across Assam.

Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Krsnaa Diagnostics may have just won another state-wide tender. Will have confirmation at 1pm tomorrow.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

The second capex plan is topline accretive. They're expanding TAN capacities, and building a new plant close to the mining hubs of India on the east. India is a net importer of TAN, and this is an import substitute. Image below has the TAN landscape over the next 5 years. 9/14

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Some thoughts on Krsnaa's results. • YoY topline is down, as Q1FY22 had 30 Cr. of covid allied income. • Excluding this, it looks like Krsnaa's core business (without covid) has been at the same 100 Cr. run rate now for a long time. 1/

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Chins

@Chins1729

10 months

Background: Ecuador has undercut the market significantly, selling shrimp 15-20% cheaper than India. This has allowed them to gain a significant market share in shrimp over the last two years. (See multiple posts from @theHarshFolio and @Tijori1 highlighting this) 2/z

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@Chins1729

2 years

If Tamboli Capital announces a board meeting, bring a suit of armour. Article from 2020, is a listed 100 Cr. company.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

So why is this interesting? • While ultimately mining is a sunset sector, demand for coal and cement will remain for another 20 years. • All of Deepak Fertilizer's competitors are PSUs! 6/14

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@Chins1729

2 years

A year later, Avendus' D2C report is still one of my favourite enclyopedias on the landscape. When I first read it, I was studying RPSG Ventures. Now, I see many more listed companies in the picture.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

What are these branded garments? They've purchased long term licenses (20+ years) from companies like LVMH, or have set up joint ventures with them. Almost all brands are priced in the premium range. This was their product portfolio two years ago. 4/

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Quarterly updates from Ugro. For the off-book AUM to grow from 21% to 29% in a quarter, a large percentage of this quarter's disbursements must have been off-book. Looking forward to results on November 10th! Disclosure: invested, have made transactions in the last 48 hours.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Have enjoyed listening to @DigantHaria over the last few years. I am biased, Spandana and Fusion form 6% of my portfolio. The former is at around 1.3x FY23 book, and Fusion is at around 1.8x FY23 book. Both could hopefully do 4%+ RoA in FY24.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Morgan Stanley with an overview of NBFCs, and their one year forward price to book relative to RoE.

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@Chins1729

2 years

Was watching a conference on the developments in the co-lending space in India. One speaker remarked that the policy is getting so much traction that most financial institutions have individual teams / positions for co-lending. This did not exist 3 years ago. Channel check:

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@Chins1729

2 years

Summary for the smaller agrichemical companies in India: Story is UPL + 1, not China + 1. @theHarshFolio has done incredible work in this space. Unit economics ☑️ Growth headroom ☑️ Underowned ☑️ Waiting for the latest presentation to be put up on Youtube :)

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Chins

@Chins1729

1 year

Great numbers from Fusion MFI. D: invested in almost every company in the MFI space.

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Chins

@Chins1729

2 years

Deepak Fert has planned to spend 𝟔𝟓𝟎𝟎 𝐂𝐫. on capacity expansion. The first of DFPCL's large projects is ammonia. This is what they use to make TAN. 100% of the 500,000 tonnes will be consumed in house, and poses no sales risk. 7/14

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Chins

@Chins1729

1 year

Have shared my revenue model on Krsnaa Diagnostics on VP. Would be happy for anyone who closely tracks the company to push back against the numbers.

Krsnaa Diagnostics - what is the diagnosis?

Krsnaa has been awarded a statewide contract for pathology across Assam. Any model for Krsnaa must be a sum of the parts for each tender they have won, I had shared a sample below: Now that (most)...

forum.valuepickr.com

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