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Aditya Khemka Profile
Aditya Khemka

@AdityaKhemka5

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Equity Fund mgr @ Incred Asset Mngt Views are personal and not of my organization. Equity markets carry risks. sales @incredamc .com

Mumbai, India
Joined March 2018
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
I deleted the @Olacabs and @UberINSupport app today. The stress of booking a cab and receiving calls from drivers about destination and payment and then ensuing cancelations by the driver was too much. Going back to autos and kali peeli. No hard feelings love. We had a good run.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
11 months
No drinking water at #wankhede stadium. Security doesn't allow to go out buy and come back. No drinking water in stands. Please take immediate action. Everyone's suffering. #droughtinwankhede
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Loneliness Is as Lethal As Smoking 15 Cigarettes Per Day. Make it a point to reach out to a loved one everyday. Stay connected. But not to gadgets or the web, but to human beings.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
Planning to host a zoom meeting webinar exclusively on Opportunities in #indian #healthcare #investing on Sunday, 6th December at 12 noon. Kindly dm me or retweet this tweet and I will send you a link on the webinar. Duration 1 hour. Would be a 30 min ppt followed by QnA.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
The government is happy to tax PF contributions above 5 lakh, but they won't tax farmers income above 20 lakhs? What kind of logic is that? Even from a vote bank vs note bank perspective, doesn't make sense. Only reason is vested interest. Agree?
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
I have had a very abusive boss in past. Workplace abuse is rampant in India. Bosses feel they own employee. Know your worth. No org dies without you and you won't die without it. Peace of mind and food health. People underestimate what stress can do to them and family. #respect
@AnantBhan
Anant Bhan
3 years
Know Your Worth
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
My previously managed healthcare fund has been the best performing MF on the street in 2020. Also we at Incred AMC got our PMS license today. We will launch our healthcare PMS product in a weeks time. Seek your blessing and best wishes. God is kind. #investing #healthcare
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
I will repeat and repeat till majority of investors get the msg. Manufacturing for US generics is commodity. Inj is a commodity which has been in upcycle for 10 years. Almost a bubble. Burst is inevitable. Timing is uncertain. #investing #Pharma22 #healthcare
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Can someone please decode why investors buy stocks that have corrected significantly and invest in funds that have outperformed in recent past? Isn't a fund a collection of stocks?
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Europe is the third largest API producer after China and India. Power intensive industry. Steel plants are shutting down in EU, another power intensive industry. What can be learnt?
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
I like the kind of companies that speak less and do more.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
China lockdown = supply constraints = KSM prices up = margin pressures = pass on to consumers = normalization of margins = Govt push for indigenization/vertical integration = capex/alliances = medium term margins up = quality of earnings up = multiples up = long term bullish
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
#Gita teaches us to be forgiving and not get angry. In a couple of confrontations that I have had in past year, what I have experienced is if I don't raise voice and confront, the person opposite tends to shout louder as my calm was taken for my guilt. How to resolve? #confused
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
@ola_supports Nah! I am not going to help you. If you can't figure out what's wrong with your businesses, then that's your business.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Are you also proud of charging USD37 per dose where most of the World can't afford USD3 per dose? Make a difference to the mass and not the rich! Science was supposed to be used for benefit of humanity. It saddens me that we have forgotten that.
@AlbertBourla
Albert Bourla
3 years
Every day, I wake up proud of our team at @Pfizer . Proud of the work we do. Proud of the difference we are making. And I am especially proud today.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Suggest 3 subjects on which to conduct a webinar (free for all). I am making no promises will try to do it as and when convenient. #Healthcare #Pharma #Compounding #investing
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
We need an essential correction in investment logic. Stock prices are slaves of cashflows!!! Not earnings.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
#Bajajfinance #scam Whilewe like the company, but if one visits their Marol branch in Mumbai, you realize the scam they do. Consumers can't foreclose loans if the foreclosure letter is more than 30 days old. The nbfc takes 15-17 days to issue the letter. Your money, their policy.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Hospitals with specialized oncology care wings will have an edge over others.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Sad when investors lose money, but I warned on generic inj many many times on various platforms. Still warning on mammoths with large US generics business and lofty valuations. Multiples will have to shift from size to quality. Or else, such investor losses will keep happening.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
That time of the market that separates the wheat from the chaff and the men from the boys. Happy investing!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
2 learnings from today's spaces: a) There is still a lot to learn from others within and outside Healthcare; b) Next time you sense a glitch in spaces, log in through laptop or desktop. There seems to be a bug in mobile use. #hungryformore
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
I can now proudly say, that a commodity API player is making an honest effort to evolve and not worrying about MCap for now. This is going to be painful in near term for those who have it. But longer term, this is the best thing you could have hoped for. Patience is a moat.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
This is a very healthy correction in #healthcare stocks. Some of these had genuinely gotten overvalued, while the rest still have value. Time to be selective. No recos. Just thoughts.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
A large generic inj player will likely get hammered over 3 years, as many large inj players launch the top 3 products of the said player. This would result in market share loss, price erosion, lower profit & hence lower multiples for the stock. Let the guessing begin.. #warnings
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
A service provider who is about to demerge his verticals and create astronomical returns. A Indo pharma business which also have equivalent exports but creates 0 profit in Export today and is valued only for India biz today. This situation will get remedied over next 2 years.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Till the time investors associate market cap with quality of the business or cash flows, value investors will keep getting opportunities to invest in great quality cash flows at cheap valuations. The price to pay here is time and patience. This is why wealth creation is rare.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 months
Few takeaways from below data: a) P/E ratio is barely an indicator of valuation b) P/B is a rather solid indicator of valuation c) Peak multiple at potentially peak RoE of a cyclical business is likely to be a disaster d) Most investors got on too late and will not be able to
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
1 month
US FDA Form 483 reveals Granules tore and destroyed Quality Control Data, GMP Documents/papers leading to Data Integrity issues. This is a much hyped large scale generic manufacturer from India. Why o why?
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
1 month
Why the biosecure act? What was the need? Let's see the sequence of events: CoVid hit the World hard in late 2019 Genetic sequence of the virus was published in Jan 2020 Feb 2020 WHO said that it did not expect a vaccine to be available for the next 18 months June 2020 - China
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
No shame in following a Woman to achieve success. I remember the day all Indian cricketers wore their jersey's with their mother's name on it. #Respect
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Only in Healthcare series: Only in Healthcare, do investors compare Hospitals to Hotels! Both give room on rents. However, in a hospital, THEY make the decisions of how long you stay, how much you spend, what food you eat and when you have to go back, you go to them Only! #Data
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
API is a megatrend, do not miss it. #IncredPMS
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Medical tourism is the most profitable segment for hospitals. This segment is yet to normalize due to CoVid. We at InCred Healthcare PMS have 20% of the portfolio in hospitals. This is vs 12% in index and highest allocation when compared to healthcare MFs.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Interviewed a branded generic company about capex plans. He had none. I asked why? He said my assets are a) Your mind recall of my brands and b) doctors prescription pad. None can be bought with capex. Both can be built with opex over long periods of time. #moatwt #investing
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Congratulations to team #Indoco for the incredible achievement. It is not easy to make inroads in a branded market. Your brand has to compete with other incumbent brands. Companies which can consistently gain MS in such a space are truly great. No reco, just thoughts. #pharma
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
When a complex business structure forces a company to trade at 70% discount to peers, would resolving the structure through a demerger, create value? Specially when the company is in services business. Astronomical gains possible in next 6 months if so. #Happy #Diwali
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
What a brain teaser this one... The possibilites that exist because of vested interests... Are we too naive to know all this or too ignorant or is all this just a creation of crooked idle minds.. I wonder, I wonder what we will leave to our children. I worry what we have built
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
MNC pharma in India make cash flow from domestic business but have no venue to reinvest it and earns 3% post tax returns on reinvestment in FDs. MNC used to have 90% market share in India in 1980 and today are at 10%. Why are they valued at higher multiples than large cap pharma?
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
While I am guilty of gloating when praised for my webinars, I also want to highlight, that what I say or explain is not uniquely known to me. It is common knowledge for the industry participants. Thanks for all the support. It makes me strive harder and stronger.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Another acquisition, another related party cashing in on minorities cash. When will this stop? Then, investors ask why is it so cheap? #kheloIndiakhelo #disgusted #investing #forensic #datavsrhetoric
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
I explain everything from commodity nature of generics to brands in EMs. However, most common question I get it as ro when to enter and when to exit as pharma had shown a cycle in past. When will investors get it? Cycle was due to generics, brands have been and will be secular!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Having a hard time getting rid of the feeling of doership. I am just a channel. The Universe is unraveling its plans through me. I am a puppet. Have to inculcate this. My Bhaiya often said, "Do you know how to make God laugh? Tell him about your plans".
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Perfect example of peak earnings being given peak multiples playing out in a pharma stock today (also was down big yesterday!). IMHO, the US business is a steel business and needs to be valued lower when doing very well and vice versa. The same will play out in inj. #warning
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
The US generics business is worse than a treadmill. In a treadmill, if you run at the same pace, you remain where you are. Here you need to run faster than earlier to remain where you are. Large pharmacos rely on US for ~50% for their cashflows #rhetoricvsdata #investing #pharma
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
The RM costs are cooling off with lower crude and freight and power? Yes! If so, would the hike in end products stick? Hosps Yes! BG Yes! UG what is a price hike? API 50/50! Diag What cost escalated? Think think think very hard
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Worst time to invest = higher than avg margins and higher than avg multiples. Inverse is also true. Not a now or never situation, but much closer to it then we have been in past 5 years. Happy investing!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
1 month
P/B and P/OCF made much more sense in evaluating such stocks than PE. The winners of tomorrow will be those where there is multiple re-rating and earnings growth. Entry price matters!!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Monday 9.30am on Bloomberg Quint. Look forward @_nirajshah
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
8 months
@HDFC_Bank is still living in stone age with the concept of home branch and non home branch in the same @HDFC_Bank doesn't care about digital India. Got charged 295rs for depositing cash in my own account because it wasn't home branch. Reference no. 00524063002188
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
After Britain began vaccination, four UK volunteers who received Pfizer's vaccine in the trial stage, have developed facial paralysis. MHRA has now issued a warning that any person with a history of anaphylaxis to a vaccine, medicine or food should not receive BioNTech vaccine.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Hare Ram, Hare Ram, Hare Krsnaa, Hare Krsnaa.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Spoke to someone going through #corporate #abuse . Given the almost non existent HR in many firms (small/big), do you think there should be a penal code for the employee to file under? Like the whistle-blower code. Why do Indian bosses feel they own employees? #Changeorperish
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
20% erosion in one market vs 10% price increase in another. Raw material prices do not vary depending on where the end product is sold! Investors!!! Place your bets!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
Dear Twitter family, truly humbled that 2500 participants attended and 500 questions were posted for me. I will try and make a self recorded video of the questions that were left unanswered. Very kind words being said about me by many. We are all learning and will keep sharing.
@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
The webinar on Investment opportunities in Indian healthcare goes live at 12 noon today.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
It is good to have different views on business models and prospects. What I find distasteful is the effort to prove others wrong that too without data and just one liners like mammoths are good or hospital is crap. Huh! Market is baap. We will all learn from it.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
What is the market really scared of? Inflation cause it kills discretionary consumption AND interest rates as it lowers disposable income and also increases cost of debt. So, your portfolio needs to be aligned to segments that have a) Non discretionary consumption and b) No debt.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
@unseenvalue sir, I have been rerated already with all the trust and appreciation I get from various platforms. I just pray to God that I can live up to this massive trust placed in me. I don't fear failure, I fear hubris and blind spots.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Once there was a naughty kid, he was stealing money from his family. He got caught, now he had to show his family that he has cleaned up his act. So he ousted his friend from his house and blamed him for all the mess. Will the family forget and forgive? I dunno.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
i want to thank all my well wishers. Rarely do People Gift such blessings. Have Countless Gratitude to each of you. Kindly Restrain from Staying Negative Allocation to equities. Happy investing!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
4 things would add more color to your thought process here: a) Price and volume mix for Chinese API export growth? b) How much is import substitution from India? c) No. of molecules China was exporting earlier vs today? How many Indian companies now sell API to China vs earlier?
@abhymurarka
Abhishek Murarka 💹🐂
3 years
#API industry Twitter fanatics: Don't dare question our companies Equity reports: 200 pages about India's decade Reality:
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Response to a common objection I get to #investing in #branded #generic #pharma . The objection raised often is that #generic generic might cannibilise #branded generic market in #India . My view is that it is not possible as it is not viable in the trade channels. #datavsrhetoric
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Mrinal Singh at @incredpms is not on Twitter. He said a fantastic one liner - "Market goes up in an escalator, but comes down in an elevator". Too good. He has this unbelievable capability of coming up with just insightful one liners. Great learning for people like me.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
Dear Twitter family. I must be blessed to receive so many requests that it is now impossible to send link to 2500+ participants individually. So we have decided to throw it open for all. Dec 6th, 12 noon. You may register now or at the time of the event:
@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
Planning to host a zoom meeting webinar exclusively on Opportunities in #indian #healthcare #investing on Sunday, 6th December at 12 noon. Kindly dm me or retweet this tweet and I will send you a link on the webinar. Duration 1 hour. Would be a 30 min ppt followed by QnA.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Commodities mean revert. Brands, just don't care.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
All large pharma cos are doing capex for inj for US market. A contractor makes 55% GM today manufacturing them for others. Now, when some of his clients are doing capex for in house manf, they save that 55%. They all sell the end product at the same price to same buyers! #pharma
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
It's ironical that I always say this when describing the hospital business. @unseenvalue
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
This was so on the cards. The win win here is that stock prices have not discounted this event. Growth and margins both take an uptick when price goes up. Stocks and fundamentals will align eventually? #Healthcare #branded generics #incredamc
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Only in healthcare series: Only in healthcare, investors buy unbranded generic (commodity) peddling companies and believe they are in larger and more stable businesses. The stable business is small and branded. #datavsrhetoric
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
An office cabin or a new car, nothing compares to the warmth and satisfaction of working in a company where we are united to a common goal. Excellence! #Incred
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
InCred Healthcare PMS towns top 3 listed companies in the table below as we are branded generic focused portfolio. India growth in pharma is sustainable and highly cash generative.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
#Bhagwat #Gita says life is 10% what we experience and 90% of how we think. I believe #investing is 10% what we buy/sell/hold and 90% of how we #behave after the action. Multiple studies show constant bet portfolios o/p actual ones that were churned by professionals. #incredamc
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
RaPid Growth is playing out. Look out wooly mammoths!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Impossible to spot such opportunities without diving deep. @unseenvalue congratulations!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
"Large is safe" is a rhetoric which I have never understood or agreed to. The largest pharma company in India has seen a 60% drop from peak to date. And a small unknown midcap has seen a 60% rise in the same time. Quality of cash flow determines return not the size of it. Agree?
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
AUM of EPFO as of 2018 was 10 lakh crores. Assuming growth of 10% p.a., would be about 15 lakh cr as of 2022. So if 15% allocation of equity goes to 25%, rebalancing flow to equity is 1.5lakh cr and an additional 1200-1500cr a month recurring flows over above existing 1800-2000cr
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 months
Always like managements that can acknowledge and more importantly rectify capital allocation errors and set the record straight by selling non core assets even if at a loss to book value. Such divestitures tend to cash flow and RoE accretive immediately leading to better returns
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
If you ever want to disprove the digitization theory to yourself, visit the nearest SBI branch. Some guaranteed observations everytime I go: a) Queue for every counter b) customers complaining about long wait times and roaming from counter to counter c) Longest queue for passbook
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
5 years
All the questions on why pharma rallied in past month is ridiculous. Look at 2QFY20 top line growth rates for Pharma companies that were trading at all time lows then. Compare that to the invincible FMCG stock top line growth rates. #pricecreatesperception
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Our W(h)ealthcare bulletin for FY22 is out. Do give it a read.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Not 40x, 75x valuations on sales.
@lalitinvestor
Lalit Rathi - LKR
3 years
What does company smoke? 420 crs acquisition (that too for 51% acq) for a generic veterinary prod whose revenue FY21 was 11 crs. 40x revenue! #Hariom #CorpGov
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Congrats Team Indoco! Miles to go...
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
6 years
When we launched the fund, I informed the audience that I was 138 kgs when we conceived the fund, 108 kgs when launched it. The promise to everyone was to reach 98 kgs in 1 year (by Oct 2019). Glad to inform that progress is ahead of schedule. 2 digits after 2 decades. Yay!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
Healthcare infra spending from the Govt will lead to diagnosis & treatment for the poor who never had access or could afford proper pharma. Ayushman Bharat insurance will lead to volume explosion over time. Congrats @IncredAMC on launching a Healthcare PMS managed by yours truly.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
This age old domestic focused pharmaco just shocked the investor community with an unbelievable OCF guidance. My projections for OCF were about 85% of what they have guided, others were at 50% or lower. Operating leverage is impossible to build in excel. #investing #pharma
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
What is interesting is how the rhetoric keeps changing with the stock prices. Price changes perception. I have got so many calls from industry regarding a red flag I raised, it isn't even funny. Suddenly a complex inj biosimilar company is looking lesser. #forensics #duediligence
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
My 7 year twins yesterday engaged us in a game during family time. They said draw a picture that depicts your ideal world. I drew a house with clear sunny skies, a pizza box and all four of us playing games together. It reminded me of my priorities. Kids are awesome!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
The person to fear is one with unlimited resources. The only one to fear more is one with nothing to lose. A stock to have in your portfolio is one with FCF and RoE. But the only one that could drive insane alpha will be the turnaround with nothing to lose. #investing #stocks
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
1 month
If these guys are able to divest this segment, the standalone margins and RoE will become the consolidated RoE and Margins. That will be a dramatic shift. Hope this happens!
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
The July 2022 W(h)ealthcare bulletin is out now from the house of InCred PMS. Do let us know your feedback and comments.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
Historians will judge the govt and the doctors and nurses. I am judging myself. This disease isn't coming to us, we are going towards it. Looking inwards and taking responsibility! #COVID19India #preventionbetterthancure
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
The authentic Chinese cuisine menu just expanded to Odisha. Enjoy.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
3 years
CDMO customers need 4 things: Quality, Compliance, consistency and IP. China has been called out too many times on many of these fronts. The IndiaCDMO and API business is seeing a structural shift. #InCredAMC #HealthcarePMS #INVESTING #pharma #healthcare #dontmissthemegatrend
@carlquintanilla
Carl Quintanilla
3 years
* USTR SAYS CHINA'S ACTIONS ON INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY FALL SHORT OF COMMITMENTS TO IMPROVE IP PROTECTIONS IN U.S.-CHINA 'PHASE 1' TRADE AGREEMENT @Reuters
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
@noblemeshak1 Good talent doesn't work in a turnaround story for normal salary.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
4 years
Can Indian Manufacturing capitalise on the flight from China @narendramodi @PMOIndia If our government misses this opportunity for land and labour reforms, we should drop hopes of being an economic super power. Period. Such opportunities come once in a millennia. #reform
Tweet media one
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
Very kind words @unseenvalue . Hospitals are a high conviction bet for me for next 3 years. Heal in India will help margins further.
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@AdityaKhemka5
Aditya Khemka
2 years
@imVkohli I know that you are busy. But we staying at the same place as you by a mere stroke of luck. It is our 15th wedding anniversary. Any chance you could grant us just 1 min of your time?? #prettyplease
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