@jimsciutto
yes, prevents Russian CB from propping up the value of the Ruble, plus could lead to a run on Russian banks. will increase domestic pressure on Putin.
it's a consequential escalation by the West, to say the least.
@CyrilAimery
@jimsciutto
The Russian central bank can't liquidate its foreign currency holdings now. e.g. it can't sell its EUR and buy RUB to support the Ruble. This is an economically- and financially-material development.
Russian debt-to-GDP is ~18%. Over 80% of Russian debt is denominated in $RUB. Higher energy prices have filled Russia's coffers for the past year.
Financial markets can push $USDRUB higher all they want - it's not going change the calculus.
I’ve been away since the end of January as I’ve been on paternity leave, welcoming the birth of my first daughter!
Both mom and baby are healthy, and given how much the world has changed over the past 10 weeks, that’s all I can really ask for.
I hope everyone is staying safe.
US Senate votes 51-50, with VP Harris casting the tiebreaking vote, to adopt a budget blueprint for President Biden's $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plans. Committees have until February 16 to draw together a budget.
Can’t say I’m thrilled about this.
@victorJ0NES
was a great sparring partner on air, and an even better coworker and friend offscreen.
I’m looking forward to when our paths cross again in the future.
Thanks for everything, Vic.
Some personal news:
I’ve decided to take some time off. The last 4+ years with Tasty has been an absolutely incredible journey. Few are granted the opportunity to learn from the best in their industry and I’m grateful to have been one of those few.
A question I frequently get asked these days is, "Is it realistic to believe that the US Dollar can lose its role in the global economy?" In short, yes. It's all about Bretton Woods and the US-China trade war. 1/10
Ladies and gentlemen, can I please have your attention. I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. I need all of you, to stop what you're doing and listen.
@victorJ0NES
is back. cc:
@tastyliveshow
@ne0liberal
it’s almost as if BlackRock sees a scarce asset - housing - and knows that it will remain scarce because the solution - increased housing stock - isn’t coming to fruition anytime soon.
USD wrecking ball continues as short-end US yields rise to highest levels since 2007.
$GBPUSD now below 1.1000 for the first time since March 1985.
$EURUSD below 0.9800 for the first time since October 2002.
$USDJPY at highest rate since August 1998.
I find it extremely interesting that many think we’re close to the “end” of the pandemic (the health aspect).
In reality, 30% hesitancy among 18+ means less than 60% (closer to 55%) of the population will reach herd immunity in 2021.
COVID may be endemic for the next few years.
I had one of my best trading days ever and I celebrated by…doing manual labor with my kid & handyman (she collected the rocks; we dug).
Don’t let good days get to you. And don’t let bad days either. Stay focused. Operate within your system. Money is made sitting on your hands.
@Carnage4Life
Sovereign control - domestic or foreign - of media - social or traditional - should be out of bounds. If TikTok wasn’t under the thumb of the CCP, they’d divest because they’d have nothing to lose. That they’re fighting divestment says enough; it’s not about the money.
To no surprise, US steel and aluminum industry insiders are a fan of the 25% and 10% tariffs, respectively. As is often the case with protectionist tariffs, prices for goods using steel + aluminum will rise for entire economy while these insiders will capture the surplus.
May FOMC minutes are out. Nothing surprising to note; conversations about inflation pressures, 50-bps at next few meetings, restrictive policy all revealed earlier this month.
Contextually, 75-bps really doesn't seem likely in June.
@jimcramer
No, not when you consider the structure of CFs for fledgling tech companies compared to more established traditional businesses. Why pay a premium for future growth when real CFs can be had closer to present day?
Some sanctions that might actually have some impact on Russian invasion of Ukraine:
*EU, US AGREE TO CUT SOME RUSSIAN BANKS FROM SWIFT
*EU, US AGREE TO SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK
Once we get past Fed next week, central bank calendar thins out considerably through the turn of the year. Rate decisions spread thin in first two months of 2019. Note: all Fed meetings in 2019 will have a press conference.
@Birdyword
Why do we care what Larry Summers thinks? He’s been doing a 180 on secular stagnation since Yellen scored Fed Chair and and now Sec’y of Treasury. He’s evidentially a political opportunist with overt undertones of sexism (oh yea, and palled around with Epstein). No thanks!
@nycsouthpaw
Former Democrat Donald Trump wins the presidency as a Republican, former Republican Eric Adams wins NYC mayoral race as a Democrat. Interesting few years.
Can't help but think about Musk's $GME tweet. IIRC, didn't Melvin Capital publicly take a short position on $TSLA years back?
Reminds me of the say, "revenge is a dish best served cold."
“This whole second guessing whether it’s 75 vs. 100, to me, is like analyzing the tread thickness of the bulldozer that’s about to run over your head.”
@UrbanKaoboy
dropped gem after gem on me and
@CVecchioFX
on
@tastytrade
.
Fed funds futures pricing in 100% chance of cumulative 100-bps worth rate cuts by December, and a 45% chance 125-bps.
September now priced at 71.5% chance for 50-bps cut.
"Best house in a bad neighborhood" sentiment underlying USD strength: EUR has ECB embarking on new easing; GBP & BOE dealing with Brexit; rising BOC cut odds weighing on CAD; China slowdown gives RBA reason to pause, hurting AUD. Carry trade effect playing out.
@jbarro
It’s in vogue on the new left to figure out reasons to hate America, which affords everyone opportunities unheard of and unseen for most of human history in most (if not all) places on earth.
If China's long-game is to displace the USD as the global reserve currency, then it makes complete sense to issue USD-denominated debt: as USD depreciates, it will be cheaper to pay back the debt over time.
Just like how
@mcuban
converted his debt JPY before Abenomics.
$STUDY
@Conservativeind
@NumbersMuncher
sticking your head in the sand and ignoring *new* information as it comes to light is an interesting strategy. best of luck to you and your performative antics.
USD-pairs at multi-month extremes
$USDCAD - lowest since 9/26/17
$AUDUSD - highest since 9/20/17
$NZDUSD - highest since 9/20/17
$USDJPY - lowest since 9/12/17
$USDCHF - lowest since 9/11/17
$GBPUSD - highest since 6/23/16 (day of Brexit vote)
$EURUSD - highest since 12/18/14
The bond market (/ZBZ3, /UBZ3) is acting like the Fed isn’t serious about pausing, while the rates market (/SR3Z4) is acting like the Fed isn’t serious about keep the main rate at 5.1% through 2024.
Until this cycle, Treasury bonds had rallied at every Fed pause.
Assuming July was the last hike (which I believe), bonds are not behaving anything like they have in previous cycles.
@3F_Research
As $USDCNH advances around 2% today, it's important to recognize that this is *the exact response required* to offset 10% tariffs on $300B of goods.
From the July 2018 note, "US-China Trade War Enters New Phase amid Yuan Depreciation" 1/n
US budget deficit tops $1 trillion in first 11 months of fiscal year - this is largest non-war, non-recession deficit spending in US history.
Is this a surprise from a government run by the self-described "King of Debt"?
I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
@STR0
‘Judge me not by my friends but by my enemies’
if these are the type of people standing against you, you’re probably doing something right
keep up the good fight!
@LindseyBoylan
@NYGovCuomo
All elected officials who have constituents in NYC bare this responsibility. From city council to state assembly to governor, they’ve had years to work together and find a solution. They’ve all failed for years. Why should any current sitting elected be trusted to fix this now?
@Noahpinion
“America and Israel shouldn’t be taking a victory lap for dismantling a terrorist organization that has killed dozens of Americans and Israelis civilians and non-civilians alike” is an interesting take.
@RyanDetrick
Similar for the Nasdaq. I’m forgetting who tweeted it (not my study, but I’ll credit in a follow-up tomorrow)…NQ -3% and NYSE A/D positive for only 2nd time in history, the other being week of low in July 1995.
@Birdyword
Why do we care what Larry Summers thinks? He’s been doing a 180 on secular stagnation since Yellen scored Fed Chair and and now Sec’y of Treasury. He’s evidentially a political opportunist with overt undertones of sexism (oh yea, and palled around with Epstein). No thanks!
Fed's Powell says FOMC has patience regarding raising rates, only question is, how much more do US stocks & oil need to rebound before FOMC is comfortable?
Fed leaves rates unchanged, QE unchanged, announces two new repo facilities, and only says that "progress" - but not "substantial" -has been made.
Bond markets are seeing this with an ever-so-slightly hawkish hue; long-end flattening, butterflies show higher intermediate rates.
KUDLOW: "Look, I'm not the health expert, but on the so-called spike, I spoke to our health experts at some length last evening. They're saying there is no second spike. Let me repeat that. There is no second spike."
Dow down ~1120 points now. Last few minutes have felt flash crashy. No, it hasn’t been rising inflation expectations the past week; its skyrocketing US political risk.
Is the US economy in a recession? Are we heading towards one?
Depending upon where you look - hard data, surveys, the bond market - you'll get a different story.
FOMC minutes are out. Some color around QT/balance sheet reduction ($95B/month: $60B Treasuries, $35B MBS) and chatter about a 50-bps rate hike in the coming meetings. Minor reaction by USD, gold, USTs.
@Conservativeind
@NumbersMuncher
you don't seem to have a grasp of this subject matter whatsoever, and as a public figure you have a platform, so I encourage you to review the data yourself:
Fed rate hike odds are soaring today, with three 50-bps hikes priced-in (June, July, September) and a 78% chance of an additional 25-bps rate hike thereafter before the end of 2022.
$DXY $ES $NQ $TNX $TLT
January US NFP come in at +49K vs +50K expected. Surprisingly on the nose, considering that the range of estimates varied from +400K to -250K. Unemployment rate (U3) comes in at 6.3% vs 6.7% previously, with LFPR at 61.4% vs 61.5% previously.