Christopher Vecchio, CFA Profile
Christopher Vecchio, CFA

@CVecchioFX

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Head of Futures & Forex @tastyliveshow Futures Power Hour M-F 1-2p ET; Overtime M-Th 4-5p ET; The Prediction Trade Th 430p ET

NYC
Joined January 2010
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@jimsciutto yes, prevents Russian CB from propping up the value of the Ruble, plus could lead to a run on Russian banks. will increase domestic pressure on Putin. it's a consequential escalation by the West, to say the least.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
7 years
Updated per @zerohedge - BItcoin $BTCUSD milestones $0000 - $1000: 1789 days ---- $12,000-$13,000: 17 hours $13,000-$14,000: 4 hours $14,000-$15,000: 10 hours $15,000-$16,000: 5 hours $16,000-$17,000: 2 hours $17,000-$18,000: 10 minutes $18,000-$19,000: 3 minutes
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@CyrilAimery @jimsciutto The Russian central bank can't liquidate its foreign currency holdings now. e.g. it can't sell its EUR and buy RUB to support the Ruble. This is an economically- and financially-material development.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
Russian debt-to-GDP is ~18%. Over 80% of Russian debt is denominated in $RUB. Higher energy prices have filled Russia's coffers for the past year. Financial markets can push $USDRUB higher all they want - it's not going change the calculus.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
I’ve been away since the end of January as I’ve been on paternity leave, welcoming the birth of my first daughter! Both mom and baby are healthy, and given how much the world has changed over the past 10 weeks, that’s all I can really ask for. I hope everyone is staying safe.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@Popehat as the son of two attorneys who studied con law in college, let me tell you why youre wrong… 1/638
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
US Senate votes 51-50, with VP Harris casting the tiebreaking vote, to adopt a budget blueprint for President Biden's $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plans. Committees have until February 16 to draw together a budget.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 years
@iowahawkblog Bonfire of the Hannities?
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
It's official. UK parliament approves #Brexit bill, 330-231. UK will leave the EU on January 31, 2020. $GBPUSD $GBPJPY $EURGBP
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
Can’t say I’m thrilled about this. @victorJ0NES was a great sparring partner on air, and an even better coworker and friend offscreen. I’m looking forward to when our paths cross again in the future. Thanks for everything, Vic.
@victorJ0NES
Victor Jones
2 years
Some personal news: I’ve decided to take some time off. The last 4+ years with Tasty has been an absolutely incredible journey. Few are granted the opportunity to learn from the best in their industry and I’m grateful to have been one of those few.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
A question I frequently get asked these days is, "Is it realistic to believe that the US Dollar can lose its role in the global economy?" In short, yes. It's all about Bretton Woods and the US-China trade war. 1/10
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
@JonahDispatch exactly, totally relatable explanation for your typical American voter
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
8 years
@ggreenwald @nycsouthpaw smearing the victim makes the offense less offensive, obviously. "oh he's not perfect? he deserved it" ... smh
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
9 months
Ladies and gentlemen, can I please have your attention. I've just been handed an urgent and horrifying news story. I need all of you, to stop what you're doing and listen. @victorJ0NES is back. cc: @tastyliveshow
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@ne0liberal it’s almost as if BlackRock sees a scarce asset - housing - and knows that it will remain scarce because the solution - increased housing stock - isn’t coming to fruition anytime soon.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
USD wrecking ball continues as short-end US yields rise to highest levels since 2007. $GBPUSD now below 1.1000 for the first time since March 1985. $EURUSD below 0.9800 for the first time since October 2002. $USDJPY at highest rate since August 1998.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
I find it extremely interesting that many think we’re close to the “end” of the pandemic (the health aspect). In reality, 30% hesitancy among 18+ means less than 60% (closer to 55%) of the population will reach herd immunity in 2021. COVID may be endemic for the next few years.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 months
I had one of my best trading days ever and I celebrated by…doing manual labor with my kid & handyman (she collected the rocks; we dug). Don’t let good days get to you. And don’t let bad days either. Stay focused. Operate within your system. Money is made sitting on your hands.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
7 years
Thrilled to report that I've passed the Level III CFA Exam! @CFAinstitute Thanks @CFANewYork for helping me prepare!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
8 years
Remember when Trump said Fed was only keep rates low because of pressure from Obama? Now he says he likes low rates and Yellen. Good times.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 months
@Carnage4Life Sovereign control - domestic or foreign - of media - social or traditional - should be out of bounds. If TikTok wasn’t under the thumb of the CCP, they’d divest because they’d have nothing to lose. That they’re fighting divestment says enough; it’s not about the money.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
7 years
To no surprise, US steel and aluminum industry insiders are a fan of the 25% and 10% tariffs, respectively. As is often the case with protectionist tariffs, prices for goods using steel + aluminum will rise for entire economy while these insiders will capture the surplus.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
May FOMC minutes are out. Nothing surprising to note; conversations about inflation pressures, 50-bps at next few meetings, restrictive policy all revealed earlier this month. Contextually, 75-bps really doesn't seem likely in June.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
@GRDecter probably working on his second or third can of Coca-Cola
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker for 2Q'22 update is out, and it's ugly: -2.1% annualized. @victorJ0NES @JStanleyFX
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 months
A friendly reminder that technical analysis is not applicable on $VIX. It’s a non-stationary time series as it has a unit root.
@TheLongInvest
The Long Investor
5 months
$VIX No listen, it's probably nothing.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@Conservativeind @NumbersMuncher This is a breathtakingly stupid take. Congrats, quite the accomplishment.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
@jimcramer No, not when you consider the structure of CFs for fledgling tech companies compared to more established traditional businesses. Why pay a premium for future growth when real CFs can be had closer to present day?
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
BOJ: "we're sorry"
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 months
when does @cnbc run with Markets in Turmoil? asking for a friend who has some puts to sell
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
@RadioFreeTom what do you know about the death of expertise?
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
Some sanctions that might actually have some impact on Russian invasion of Ukraine: *EU, US AGREE TO CUT SOME RUSSIAN BANKS FROM SWIFT *EU, US AGREE TO SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 years
Once we get past Fed next week, central bank calendar thins out considerably through the turn of the year. Rate decisions spread thin in first two months of 2019. Note: all Fed meetings in 2019 will have a press conference.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
@Birdyword Why do we care what Larry Summers thinks? He’s been doing a 180 on secular stagnation since Yellen scored Fed Chair and and now Sec’y of Treasury. He’s evidentially a political opportunist with overt undertones of sexism (oh yea, and palled around with Epstein). No thanks!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
9 years
Well I'm off the next few weeks - getting married tomorrow (!) and then onto Italy for the honeymoon. See everyone in September!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
A currency crisis has begun for the Russian Ruble. $USDRUB $EURRUB #Ukraine
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
$USDJPY rates on the cusp of setting a new yearly high >145.90. Traders should be on alert for intervention news from the BOJ the next few days.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 months
Happy Mother’s Day! At the request of mom and daughter, I made some rainbow sprinkle chocolate donuts from scratch this morning.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@nycsouthpaw Former Democrat Donald Trump wins the presidency as a Republican, former Republican Eric Adams wins NYC mayoral race as a Democrat. Interesting few years.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
Can't help but think about Musk's $GME tweet. IIRC, didn't Melvin Capital publicly take a short position on $TSLA years back? Reminds me of the say, "revenge is a dish best served cold."
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@nntaleb The irony of banning Dostoevsky, who was jailed in Siberia for reading banned books critical of Tsarist Russia…insanity
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
It was a treat to talk to @UrbanKaoboy today with @victorJ0NES . Today’s episode of Jones & Friends was one of my favorites thus far, up there with when we’ve had @DivesTech , @spotgamma , @BennettTomlin , or @jam_croissant (who will be back this Thursday) on the show.
@victorJ0NES
Victor Jones
2 years
“This whole second guessing whether it’s 75 vs. 100, to me, is like analyzing the tread thickness of the bulldozer that’s about to run over your head.” @UrbanKaoboy dropped gem after gem on me and @CVecchioFX on @tastytrade .
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
Fed funds futures pricing in 100% chance of cumulative 100-bps worth rate cuts by December, and a 45% chance 125-bps. September now priced at 71.5% chance for 50-bps cut.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 months
Nothing beats NYC in the spring. Except drinks with @TraderKatie @JermalChandler @TraderMikeyB @TraderNickyBAT in NYC in the spring.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 years
"Best house in a bad neighborhood" sentiment underlying USD strength: EUR has ECB embarking on new easing; GBP & BOE dealing with Brexit; rising BOC cut odds weighing on CAD; China slowdown gives RBA reason to pause, hurting AUD. Carry trade effect playing out.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
11 months
@jbarro It’s in vogue on the new left to figure out reasons to hate America, which affords everyone opportunities unheard of and unseen for most of human history in most (if not all) places on earth.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
If China's long-game is to displace the USD as the global reserve currency, then it makes complete sense to issue USD-denominated debt: as USD depreciates, it will be cheaper to pay back the debt over time. Just like how @mcuban converted his debt JPY before Abenomics. $STUDY
@zerohedge
zerohedge
5 years
A Record-Breaking Dollar Bond Offering From China Could Be Imminent
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@Conservativeind @NumbersMuncher sticking your head in the sand and ignoring *new* information as it comes to light is an interesting strategy. best of luck to you and your performative antics.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
They're not sanctions, they're a Special Economic Operation designed to save Russia's economy.
Putin says Russia will solve its problems, calls sanctions illegitimate
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
@litcapital King Viserys and Jesse Pinkman
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
1 year
A good day for a hike through the woods with the little one.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 months
It’s Friday. It’s pizza night. Go away, Debby.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
@elizaorlins I respect the hustle, always looking out for a potential new client
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
7 years
USD-pairs at multi-month extremes $USDCAD - lowest since 9/26/17 $AUDUSD - highest since 9/20/17 $NZDUSD - highest since 9/20/17 $USDJPY - lowest since 9/12/17 $USDCHF - lowest since 9/11/17 $GBPUSD - highest since 6/23/16 (day of Brexit vote) $EURUSD - highest since 12/18/14
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
1 year
The bond market (/ZBZ3, /UBZ3) is acting like the Fed isn’t serious about pausing, while the rates market (/SR3Z4) is acting like the Fed isn’t serious about keep the main rate at 5.1% through 2024.
@WarrenPies
Warren Pies
1 year
Until this cycle, Treasury bonds had rallied at every Fed pause. Assuming July was the last hike (which I believe), bonds are not behaving anything like they have in previous cycles. @3F_Research
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
@AlecMacGillis @SethAMandel This would be “possibly reassuring” once we hit the two week mark. Otherwise, still hopes and dreams.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 months
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 months
It’s Friday. It’s pizza night. Go away, Debby.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
@jimcramer No, they need the Fed to stop withdrawing liquidity. Nothing changes until the macro winds shift direction.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
Sometimes, decades happen in weeks
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
1 year
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
As $USDCNH advances around 2% today, it's important to recognize that this is *the exact response required* to offset 10% tariffs on $300B of goods. From the July 2018 note, "US-China Trade War Enters New Phase amid Yuan Depreciation" 1/n
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
@prchovanec The 2022 election was a 2010 redux. No one should be surprised if the US credit rating is downgraded in the next few years
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
US budget deficit tops $1 trillion in first 11 months of fiscal year - this is largest non-war, non-recession deficit spending in US history. Is this a surprise from a government run by the self-described "King of Debt"?
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
8 years
I am "the king of debt."That has been great for me as a businessman, but is bad for the country. I made a fortune off of debt, will fix U.S.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
The Jan US NFP report was expected to be noisy, but, wow +517K vs +188K expected
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
Bitcoin higher after this tweet $BTCUSD
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
5 years
I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
The Fed's Monetary Policy Report has been released: -- some highlighted passages per @RichDvorakFX #TeamTransitory
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
@Noahpinion if that were true then how come so many of us are facing the same budget problems each month
@dril
Listen here Nomb Nuts
11 years
Food $200 Data $150 Rent $800 Candles $3,600 Utility $150 someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@STR0 ‘Judge me not by my friends but by my enemies’ if these are the type of people standing against you, you’re probably doing something right keep up the good fight!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@LindseyBoylan @NYGovCuomo All elected officials who have constituents in NYC bare this responsibility. From city council to state assembly to governor, they’ve had years to work together and find a solution. They’ve all failed for years. Why should any current sitting elected be trusted to fix this now?
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
25 days
@Noahpinion “America and Israel shouldn’t be taking a victory lap for dismantling a terrorist organization that has killed dozens of Americans and Israelis civilians and non-civilians alike” is an interesting take.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 months
Having a nice Saturday with my daughter - salon, groceries, and a quick swim before lunch with the grandparents. Happy Memorial Day weekend!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
7 years
@TrueFactsStated Problem resolved! Thank you all for the help!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
if you’re not watching oil... Below $2.50/brl
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
1 year
Back in NYC. Great dinner with Tom, @traderBRIT and the @tastyliveshow team. And a great time with @JermalChandler and @DonDeanX afterwards. The best place on earth. America is already great. See everyone tomorrow morning.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
1 year
@RadioFreeTom What about Indian food, Tom?
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
Gold prices clearing some important technical hurdles as discussed in yesterday's bullion note: $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
Directionally neutral vol selling is a better idea in times like these than simply getting long stocks (2005-present)
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
@RyanDetrick Similar for the Nasdaq. I’m forgetting who tweeted it (not my study, but I’ll credit in a follow-up tomorrow)…NQ -3% and NYSE A/D positive for only 2nd time in history, the other being week of low in July 1995.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
28 days
“The chart that no bull wants to see” …is that of the S&P 500 at all-time highs 1) what
@SuburbanDrone
Mac10
29 days
The chart that no bull wants to see: It's time for a hair cut.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
@Birdyword Why do we care what Larry Summers thinks? He’s been doing a 180 on secular stagnation since Yellen scored Fed Chair and and now Sec’y of Treasury. He’s evidentially a political opportunist with overt undertones of sexism (oh yea, and palled around with Epstein). No thanks!
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
5 years
Trade wars are good, and easy to win.
@business
Bloomberg
5 years
USDA pulls staff from Midwest crop tour as farmer tensions mount
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 years
Watching oil markets here as a US-backed soft coup appears to be underway in Venezuela.
@DColmanFX
Diego Colman
6 years
*TRUMP TO RECOGNIZE GUAIDO AS VENEZUELA LEADER
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
9 years
Ok Mr. Kuroda ;) Reminder: Jan 21, Kuroda to Diet: "No plans for NIRP" Jan 29: BOJ introduces NIRP. $USDJPY $NKY
@zerohedge
zerohedge
9 years
KURODA: NOT CONSIDERING LOWERING NEG.-RATE FURTHER AT THIS TIME
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 years
Fed's Powell says FOMC has patience regarding raising rates, only question is, how much more do US stocks & oil need to rebound before FOMC is comfortable?
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 months
@AlanMCole this is a @TheStalwart -level tweet of ambiguity that is sure to bait everyone. Well done.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
Fed leaves rates unchanged, QE unchanged, announces two new repo facilities, and only says that "progress" - but not "substantial" -has been made. Bond markets are seeing this with an ever-so-slightly hawkish hue; long-end flattening, butterflies show higher intermediate rates.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
There can’t be a second spike/wave...if you don’t beat the first one? 🤔
@ryanstruyk
Ryan Struyk
4 years
KUDLOW: "Look, I'm not the health expert, but on the so-called spike, I spoke to our health experts at some length last evening. They're saying there is no second spike. Let me repeat that. There is no second spike."
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
7 years
Dow down ~1120 points now. Last few minutes have felt flash crashy. No, it hasn’t been rising inflation expectations the past week; its skyrocketing US political risk.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 months
I’m not making it to work tomorrow at this rate @Tony_BATtista
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 months
The @tastylive audience has spoken: the POTUS Debate Bingo Card voted on in Overtime with @IlyaSpivak @FxWestwater
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
1 year
Is the US economy in a recession? Are we heading towards one? Depending upon where you look - hard data, surveys, the bond market - you'll get a different story.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 months
$USDJPY highest exchange rate since October 1986
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
FOMC minutes are out. Some color around QT/balance sheet reduction ($95B/month: $60B Treasuries, $35B MBS) and chatter about a 50-bps rate hike in the coming meetings. Minor reaction by USD, gold, USTs.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
3 years
@Conservativeind @NumbersMuncher you don't seem to have a grasp of this subject matter whatsoever, and as a public figure you have a platform, so I encourage you to review the data yourself:
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
Fed rate hike odds are soaring today, with three 50-bps hikes priced-in (June, July, September) and a 78% chance of an additional 25-bps rate hike thereafter before the end of 2022. $DXY $ES $NQ $TNX $TLT
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
6 years
@maxwelltani
Max Tani
9 years
Damn: after downing two plates of spaghetti and half a sandwich, Kasich orders pasta fagioli
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
2 years
NY Fed Inflation Expectations survey for October turn higher. 1-year ahead now up to 5.9% from 5.4% in September.
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@CVecchioFX
Christopher Vecchio, CFA
4 years
January US NFP come in at +49K vs +50K expected. Surprisingly on the nose, considering that the range of estimates varied from +400K to -250K. Unemployment rate (U3) comes in at 6.3% vs 6.7% previously, with LFPR at 61.4% vs 61.5% previously.
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