Professional Data Scientist. CFP Resume Rankings & Composite Team Strength Ratings. Backed by high level data analytics and a passion for College Football.
An off the charts finish to an off the charts season for Michigan, our unbeaten national champion! What a team and what a season! Congratulations to the Wolverines!
If you don’t think TCU belongs on the field vs Georgia…
Ohio State got their shot at UGA
Michigan could have beaten TCU
Tennessee got their shot at UGA
Alabama lost to Tennessee and LSU, both of whom lost to UGA
Pac-12/ACC? Nope
Be serious, Georgia is just that good
#7
Iowa State
Strength: 26.7 (11)
Raw Resume: 33.5 (4)
Top wins (win value): Oklahoma (58.4), Texas (55.9), TCU (43.2)
ISU impresses with one of the stronger raw resumes in the country. As 9-2 Big 12 Champs, Iowa State would have a better overall resume than Ohio State at 6-0.
#12
Oklahoma
No team is more overlooked than the Oklahoma Sooners, who should still be in contention for a NY6 bowl. This would be the snub of the year in a 12-team model. OU rates as a top 10 team, the raw resume is
#8
. Definitely overlooked.
Conflicting comments from the CFP Committee chair Boo Corrigan on TCU (a thread)
On TCU: "the defense struggled to keep points off the board at times"
On Alabama: "to play the game as late as they did into the game and a last-second field goal ... it is a very competitive game"
#6
Iowa St.
Strength: 27.4 (11)
Raw Resume: 35.3 (3)
Top wins (win value): Oklahoma (60.8), Texas (51.2), TCU (42.0), WVU (31.2)
Iowa State already has a top 4 resume and will remain in the top 4 with a Big 12 title. A strength heavy ranking has them ahead A&M should they win.
7 TCU
Strength: 15.0 (6)
Raw Resume: 1.0 (1)
Top wins (win value): Kansas St (59.2), Oklahoma St (49.0), Oklahoma (41.2), Kansas (36.8)
Strongest candidate to be undervalued by the committee. 3rd overall resume and best (barely) raw resume ahead of Tennessee. The Big 12 is deep.
#7
Texas
UT has a top 4 resume and should sit ahead of Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State and Oregon this week. They won’t though. Somehow Alabama is serving as an anchor rather than a floor for Texas, and the Longhorns are struggling to climb higher.
Alright, we have our final pre-CFP release rankings completed with 46 rating systems representing the strength of each team
Our top 7 resumes:
1) Georgia (IN)
2) Michigan (IN)
3) TCU (IN)
4) Kansas State (Out with 3 losses)
5) Ohio State (IN)
6) Tennessee (Out)
7) Alabama (Out)
#9
Iowa State
Strength: 30.0 (14)
Raw Resume: 28.3 (3)
Top wins (win value): Oklahoma (64.7), Texas (53.6), TCU (40.6)
Iowa St. has a large disparity between team strength and raw resume and would not be out of place as high as 4. It would be fair to rank them between 4 and 10.
Tell me you don’t understand the strength of the Big 12 without telling me you don’t understand the strength of the Big 12…
Either
@CFBHeather
or
@ESPNRittenberg
on the resume for TCU:
Who would pay to see...
1 vs 8
Alabama vs Washington or Michigan
2 vs 7
Clemson vs UCF
3 vs 6
Notre Dame vs Georgia
4 vs 5
Oklahoma vs Ohio State
Would be awesome! There is no reason this shouldn’t happen as soon as possible. Would take college football to the next level!
A few other thoughts:
Iowa State has a better resume than A&M right now and would be 4 without their Louisiana loss.
Ohio State is only 4th on team strength. Their resume is barely top 10.
Louisiana still has a better resume than Tulsa and Marshall even with a loss.
10 Utah
Strength: 22.3 (10)
Raw Resume: 39.9 (10)
Top wins (win value): USC (57.4), Oregon St (42.7), Washington St (38.6)
Losses: Florida (-9.3), UCLA (-6.3)
Our new Pac-12 favorite could finish as the top 2 loss team hoping for chaos. We project 11-2 Utah to finish at
#6
.
As we work on the Week 9 resume rankings the following stood out when looking at Sagarin data.
There are 4 unbeaten teams with 3 wins over top 30 (Sagarin) teams. 3 of those also have a win over a top 10 team. Those teams are:
Ohio State +T10
LSU +T10
Penn State +T10
Baylor
#25
Kansas State
The loss to Texas hurt, but this team is still as good as ever. They are
#12
on team strength and a top 25 team by raw resume. All losses likely to ranked teams, maybe top 15 teams. If there are 3-loss teams ranked, KSU should be amongst them.
#5
Washington
Ho hum, another quality win over a good team. Washington has the best raw resume in the country, and despite playing poorly in several games impacting their strength rating, the Huskies now hold the
#2
overall resume. They deserve to move up this week.
#23
Kansas State
The Wildcats are good, really good! The strength ratings love their recent surge, and with a road win over Texas they would have the inside track to the Big 12 title. This is a candidate to be ranked much higher by the committee than where they are in the AP.
Takeaways:
Iowa State is not overrated at 7 and could be higher.
Cincinnati should absolutely be worried.
OU is not dead yet.
Coastal should be higher.
Louisiana should be 1 spot behind Coastal.
Missouri and Colorado don't need to be ranked, but it's ok that they are.
On TCU: "TCU has had a number of games that they've played where they really have had to come from behind"
TCU trailed in the 4th quarter in 1 game, against Oklahoma St where they held OSU to 6 2nd half points.
Meanwhile Clemson had the following 4th quarter or later deficits.
On TCU: "TCU has had a number of games that they've played where they really have had to come from behind." & The "ability to dominate that side (defense) ... is really what was lacking"
On Alabama: "Alabama has got the dominant wins over Mississippi State, at Arkansas"
Week 12 Resume Rankings are Live! 🚨
- Wonder how all possible CFP resumes stack up? We have you covered!
- Want our spreads and projections for rivalry week? It's here!
- We have all things resume to keep you informed ahead of the close to the season! ⤵️
Utah beating UCLA is not a surprise. Utah is projected to win all of their remaining games and the Pac-12 South. Expect Utah to move into the top 15 (we have their resume at
#9
) as the season progresses.
As a Baylor alumni, I'm not coming to TCU's defense because I'm a homer. I'm actually the opposite, but when the committee makes a ranking mistake I'm going to highlight that mistake and stand with the team that was not fairly represented, even if it's a hated rival.
Conflicting comments from the CFP Committee chair Boo Corrigan on TCU (a thread)
On TCU: "the defense struggled to keep points off the board at times"
On Alabama: "to play the game as late as they did into the game and a last-second field goal ... it is a very competitive game"
Week 9 Resume Rankings are Live!
We talk about the first committee rankings, likely snubs or overvalued teams, likely talking points to explain rankings, bowl odds for the preseason AP top 25, the influence of narratives and more! Come check it out!
On Tennessee: "The two wins by Tennessee being the determining factor (for
#1
spot)"
Q: TCU has two wins against team in your top 18 and Alabama has no wins against teams in your top 20, plus a loss. What's the rationale for having Alabama ahead of TCU
A: "defense struggled"
On the Big 12: "We really don't look at conferences, we're looking at individual teams"
To evaluate a resume you must look at the schedule for a team. To evaluate TCU you must have an understanding of their opponents. This means understanding the Big 12's amazing depth.
On why Clemson is ahead of Michigan: "I think as you look at being 5-0 against teams that are over .500, Michigan is 2-0 against opponents that are over .500"
Meanwhile, TCU...
Biggest differences:
TCU -4
Kansas State -5
USC +5
UNC +4
Not sure why the top 2 teams from the 2nd strongest conference are getting no love from the committee.
Week 9 Resume Rankings are Live!
We talk about the first committee rankings, likely snubs or overvalued teams, likely talking points to explain rankings, bowl odds for the preseason AP top 25, the influence of narratives and more! Come check it out!
Teams currently ranked by conference in our year-to-date CFP-Nielsen Top 25:
Big 12 - 5 of 10 (50%)
Big Ten - 6 of 14 (43%)
SEC - 5 of 14 (36%)
AAC - 4 of 12 (33%)
Pac 12 - 2 of 12 (17%)
MW - 1 of 12 (8%)
ACC - 1 of 14 (7%)
Indep - 1 (n/a)
On Ohio St: "The explosive nature of their offense ... the way they came back to win (against Penn St)"
On Alabama: "But when you look at the wins ... at Texas" (trailed 16-10/19-17 in 4th)
On TCU: "They've gotten behind in some of their games"
#11
Oregon State
2 chances to disrupt the CFP by ending the hopes of the 2 teams that left them behind for greener pastures. We can’t wait to see if the Beavers can pull out an upset in either game!
#19
Kansas State
Now rating as the 11th strongest team in college football, Kansas State is still alive in the Big 12 title race, though they need some help to get to the title game. More likely is a trip to San Antonio assuming Oklahoma gets a NY6 bowl at 10-2.
#22
Oklahoma State
What a mid-season turnaround for the Cowboys! OSU was dead in the water after the blowout loss to South Alabama followed by a road loss to Iowa State (before they got good). Oklahoma State turned the corner though and has a legit shot at the Big 12.
#25
Liberty
You are looking at the 22nd strongest team in the country, 14 spots ahead of Tulane. Liberty is likely to win out, and New Mexico State just proved that the C-USA isn’t just a bunch of slouches. 13-0 is on the table and merits a shot at the big boys.
Week 4 Resume Rankings are Live!
AP
#1
and
#2
out of the Top 10, and the voters are sleeping on Utah and OU, & Penn St.
Top 10:
1) Texas
2) Ohio St
3) Florida St
4) Penn St
5) Utah
6) Washington
7) North Carolina
8) Washington St
9) Oklahoma
10) Alabama
@LamarM29122019
When good teams play great against UGA they have a shot to win. When they don’t play great they get beat badly. TCU is not playing great, and they are getting boat raced. Someone was going to have to play Georgia and TCU belongs in the game given the season results.
This week's committee rankings vs the Overall Resume for each team.
Tennessee hurt by QB injury
LSU correctly over USC
Texas way undervalued
TCU still undervalued
We won't be posting a full resume rankings post bowl games (maybe after the national title game), here's a quick look at post bowl resumes.
It looks like the teams with the two best resumes will play for the title, and TCU just beat the second strongest team we see in our data.
Hoping for a great game tonight. We had Georgia by 19.4, so if the game ends up uncompetitive that is simply a reflection of the strength of Georgia. TCU certainly deserves to be here.
Alright, we have our data for the week and are working through our resume rankings. 51 rating systems in play serving as our judges with 7 systems not having data posted by our normal 6:00 EST deadline.
First place votes:
Georgia (40)
Ohio State (8)
TCU (3)
Week 13 Resume Rankings are Live!
We look back on the full season of play to identify best non-conference wins, biggest in conference upsets, best conference games and more. Also looking forward to the updated playoff hierarchy and the odds of chaos.
Final Conference Strength Rankings:
1) SEC (champ in CFP)
2) Pac-12 (champ in CFP) (rip)
3) Big 12 (champ in CFP)
4) Big Ten (champ in CFP)
5) ACC
6) Sun Belt
7) Mountain West
8) Independents
9) American
10) C-USA (NY6 G5 Rep)
11) MAC
Bowl Season Preview is Live! 🚨
Come and see why the data arrives at the same conclusion as the committee, but without the inconsistency, then stay for the bowl projections and spreads that will lead you to glorious victory in your local bowl pick 'em! 🏆
Since this is getting attention, Iowa State could certainly have a better overall resume per our data and still be selected behind Ohio State who is being evaluated purely on their team strength. Let us know if you want to see the data behind it,
I will die on this hill as a fan. Any system where you win every game you play and can't claim a championship in your football subdivision is fraudulent. If FSU beats Georgia (or other) in the Orange Bowl they should hang the banner. The 12-team model can't get here soon enough.
@rosshdly
Rating as one of the 10 strongest teams and having one of the 10 best raw resumes. Tons of value in the Big 12 that most people don’t understand.
Overall Resume for all 131 teams
- TCU now holds the strongest raw resume
- Tennessee behind both LSU and Alabama on resume, but in different ways
- USC closing the gap to Clemson
- Preseason
#6
Texas A&M dangerously close to rival Appalachian St
Week 12 Resume Rankings are Live!
Current Top 4:
1) Georgia
2) TCU
3) Ohio State
4) Michigan
We look at the playoff hierarchy, which contenders are in trouble, conference rankings, the overall resumes, and the stakes for the final weekend of the season.
Ignore "top 25 wins" and look at the game value accrued based on opponent strength and game location. Washington is still ahead of the others, but the subjective 'top 25' doesn't matter.
@CFPResumeRanks
UW has 3 wins over current top 25 teams in the CFP. FSU has 1. OSU has 2. Michigan has 1. Georgia has 2. How does this ranking system work? Apparently, i am not smarter than a 5th grader.
Conference Strength
- Depth of the Big 12 clearly on display
- MAC trying to beat the Big 12 to conference uniformity
- The ACC alarmingly close to the AAC
- SEC still on top (barely)
#24
Liberty
Liberty is within striking distance of Tulane, and rates as the stronger team. The problem is SMU will add much more value for Tulane than what Liberty will get from beating New Mexico State. The C-USA title game needs to be a bloodbath for LU.
The wins are:
Ohio State:
Michigan
Michigan State
Cincinnati
LSU:
Auburn
Florida
Texas
Penn State:
Michigan
Iowa
Michigan State
Baylor:
Iowa State
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
If West Virginia played Duke's Schedule these would be the projected results:
Temple W
Northwestern W
NC A&T W
KU L*
Virginia W
Georgia Tech W
UNC L
Miami W
Boston College W
VT W*
Pitt L*
Wake Forest L
*WVU has achieved this result*
8-4 going to a bowl game and feeling good.
West Virginia is not a bad football team. They're just the worst team in a deep
#Big12
where there are no Saturday's off.
It's frustrating to be sure.
#hailwv
@TAMU_Insider
That doesn't at all mean they will jump the Aggies, but the value of their resume would be higher even if we weight towards the team strength rating which the committee seems to do in their rankings.
We have our final set of conference champions and projected final resumes!
ACC: Florida State (Projected IN)
Big 12: Texas (IN)
Big Ten: Michigan (IN)
Pac-12: Washington (IN)
SEC: Alabama (OUT)
Overall Resume for all 131 teams
- TCU so far ahead of Michigan on Raw Resume
- Clemson alarmingly far behind Tennessee
- Week 0 Hero Northwestern alone at the top
- Clear separation for our CFP contenders except for USC
Week 11 Resume Rankings are Live!
Our current top 4:
1) Georgia
2) TCU
3) Ohio State
4) Tennessee
We look at where the overall resume for each team comes from, why Michigan is struggling so much, how the conferences stack up and more! Come check it out!
Here’s the thread of every scenario I can think of that the committee might do tomorrow (1/3)
1) Select the obvious correct teams
Michigan
Washington
Florida State
Texas
2) Double down on the SEC
Michigan
Washington
Alabama
Georgia
Conference Strength
- Depth of the Big 12 clearly on display
- MAC trying to beat the Big 12 to conference uniformity
- The ACC alarmingly close to the AAC
- SEC still on top (barely)
Week 11 Resume Rankings are Live!
Our current top 4:
1) Georgia
2) TCU
3) Ohio State
4) Tennessee
We look at where the overall resume for each team comes from, why Michigan is struggling so much, how the conferences stack up and more! Come check it out!
We currently have about 67 of the anticipated 80 rating systems accounted for and our top 8 resumes are looking like this.
1) Michigan
2) Georgia
3) Washington
4) Texas
5) Ohio State
6) Alabama
7) Florida State
8) Oregon
Stay tuned for final resumes coming tomorrow evening!
Which teams play the most exciting schedule as measured by Game Quality?
Congratulations Cincinnati on topping the charts with an average game quality rating of >50!! This is a product of a deep Big 12 and Cincinnati having 7 games with a 40-60% Win Probability.
Who will win the Rose and Sugar Bowls? Here's what our strength rating systems think about the CFP Semifinals tomorrow.
Most systems picking Washington have less correlation than those picking Texas, and almost all strength rating systems have Michigan playing for the title.
Lots of national talk about Alabama now having the best win of the season after beating Georgia for the SEC title. It's almost a guarantee that Alabama now moves ahead of UGA in the rankings. Who is it that then has the best win of the season by ranking? The team that beat Bama.
Current Overall Resume & Projected Resume
- USC is not in our current top 4, but that will change with a win
- Tennessee shouldn't just be ahead of Alabama because of H2H, they should be ahead already on merit
- The gap for UGA, UM and TCU is so large all can absorb a loss
Week 13 Resume Rankings are Live!
We look back on the full season of play to identify best non-conference wins, biggest in conference upsets, best conference games and more. Also looking forward to the updated playoff hierarchy and the odds of chaos.
CFP chair Boo Corrigan on the Bama-FSU debate: "The questions we do ask from a coaching stand point is who do you want to play and who do you not want to play."
HORRIBLE STANDARD!!
If you want to make that decision don't make it like that. That's terrible. Way too subjective!
Regular season performance vs expected wins for an average Top 25 team.
- Harder for KSU/LSU to get to 9 wins than UW to get to 10
- Colorado with the toughest schedule in football getting all 6 of the top Pac-12 teams + TCU
- Harder for OSU to win 11 than USC
- Tennessee > Bama
@AnalyticsGOAT
Worst case scenario for sure. TCU over Michigan was an upset. Michigan probably gives Georgia a better game, but I think the repeat would have been on either way. TCU earned their spot and Georgia is just that good.
Official CFP National Championship Game Prediction
We have Michigan (-5.0), and most publicly recognized/respected rating systems agree, but many of the former BCS contributors or similar models are taking Washington to win the title.
With that said, a top ten factoring team strength and our end of year resume rankings would look as follows:
#1a
Alabama
#1b
Clemson
#3
Notre Dame
#4
Michigan
#5
Oklahoma
#6
Georgia
#7
Utah
#8
Washington
#9
Ohio State
#10
Penn State
@TheRyanMcCrary
@CFBHeather
@ESPNRittenberg
Lots of systems have the Big 12 as the strongest conference. Our composite has them barely behind the SEC, which overcomes stragglers with superior firepower at the very top.
Seen this graphic sitting around. If we had a 12-team playoff there are decent odds we already know what would have happened. We could have had Georgia blowing out TCU and beating Ohio State in a thriller to win the title, assuming Ohio St gets through PSU & the UM/Bama winner.
Week 10 Overall Resumes
- Georgia makes progress, but not there yet
- Michigan no longer on the y-axis
- Oklahoma State has made quite the run!
- Oregon = Penn State
- Don't sleep on Ole Miss
- Tulane, Liberty and Fresno State all tightly clustered, but all behind Troy? (& JMU)
Week 10 Resume Rankings are Live!
A deeper look at the resumes for Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Alabama & Oregon. What we think the committee will do Tuesday, the stakes for the biggest games this weekend, & more! Come check it out! ⤵️
Mid-day update on the playoff hierarchy given the early results.
- Georgia = IN
- Michigan = IN
- TCU = should be IN
- Ohio St = not dead, but on life support
- Pac-12 = Charging for the
#4
spot!
- Clemson = OUT!
- Alabama = lingering needing chaos
Sometimes it's easy to wonder if voters pay much attention to the games that are played. This week's AP mistake is a combo of the few voters who put Tennessee well ahead of Florida, and the many who only had UF 1 spot ahead of Tennessee allowing this result in the AP Poll...
Week 4 Resume Rankings are Live!
AP
#1
and
#2
out of the Top 10, and the voters are sleeping on Utah and OU, & Penn St.
Top 10:
1) Texas
2) Ohio St
3) Florida St
4) Penn St
5) Utah
6) Washington
7) North Carolina
8) Washington St
9) Oklahoma
10) Alabama
Week 2 Resume Rankings are Live!
This week contains our updated win probabilities, spreads, and a new
#1
Overall Resume!
Top 10:
1) Texas
2) Florida St
3) Utah
4) Notre Dame
5) Ole Miss
6) Oregon
7) North Carolina
8) Ohio St
9) Washington
10) Penn St
If there is a debate, Alabama is likely to finish with a stronger overall resume, and rating as the stronger team vs Florida State. I personally believe all 13-0 Power 5 champs should be in, otherwise what are we even doing a playoff for? However, the committee may disagree.
We have our final set of conference champions and projected final resumes!
ACC: Florida State (Projected IN)
Big 12: Texas (IN)
Big Ten: Michigan (IN)
Pac-12: Washington (IN)
SEC: Alabama (OUT)
FSU getting blown out by Georgia has no bearing on whether or not they should have made the CFP. Transfers and bowl opt outs certainly matter, but the discussion was never FSU as a top 4 strongest team or not, it was simply about the value of being unbeaten and getting a shot.
Committee Rankings vs Overall Resume
- The case for
#2
Georgia still makes no sense
- JMU snub is wild
- Oregon over UT/Bama is wild
- Sleeping on Kansas State
- Committee looking too much at the record only and the names on the uniform
- It ain't 2021/22, right committee?
Final Pre-CFP Release Resume Rankings
Florida State, if in the CFP, will do so without having a top 4 resume. There is clear separation between the top 4 resumes and the rest of the contenders.
I think the correct playoff 4 is:
Michigan
Washington
Texas
Florida State
Can the Pac-12 rebuild and be a P5 conference? Yes!
Adding SMU, Rice, & Tulane from the AAC and Boise, Fresno, & SDSU from the MW would keep them close enough to stay P5.
For any East Coaster's disagreeing, look how close they'd be to the ACC if FSU and Clemson found a way out.
@mijape2012
If you thought Alabama was one of the 4 strongest teams, and that was your only selection criteria, you are welcome to hold that opinion. If you are looking at the overall resume TCU more than earned their spot in the playoffs. Not TCU’s fault Bama blew their chance to play UGA.
The Pac-12 opponent is still to be decided, but the playoff picture is now set
- Georgia = IN
- Michigan = IN
- TCU = IN without a blowout, maybe still in
- USC = IN with a win
- Ohio St = IN with USC Loss or KSU/TCU blowout
- Alabama = IN with USC Loss & Committee hating OSU
For those wondering if the Big 12 rating here is a flash in the pan.
New Big 12: 31.9
The rise of the Big 12 may persist even after swapping Texas/OU for BYU/Cincinnati/UCF/Houston. There isn’t a dominant team, but also hardly any weak ones. Unbelievable depth!
In hindsight, the biggest impact games on the season were:
Georgia 42
Ohio State 41
Georgia 27
Tennessee 13
LSU 32
Alabama 31
TCU 51
Michigan 45
Tennessee 52
Alabama 49
UM/OSU? Didn’t matter.
Clemson losses? Didn’t matter.
Pac-12? Maybe a Washington result? Unknown.
Listen, if you want to argue other teams would have made for a better national title game against Georgia that’s totally fair. We saw Ohio St/UGA, instant classic. We saw Tennessee, L. Alabama? Would have been a great game if Bama had earned their shot. Michigan? Didn’t beat TCU.
If you don’t think TCU belongs on the field vs Georgia…
Ohio State got their shot at UGA
Michigan could have beaten TCU
Tennessee got their shot at UGA
Alabama lost to Tennessee and LSU, both of whom lost to UGA
Pac-12/ACC? Nope
Be serious, Georgia is just that good