Ex-White House & State Dept. Eurasia, Ambassador to Azerbaijan; Jamestown Fdtn. Board; Managing Partner in Istanbul for Straife (pol. risk and corp. strategy)
UN's basic rule of peacekeeping: no neighbors (and no parties) to a conflict due to their inherent bias.
#Russia
has pushed for years to insert its peacekeepers into
#NagornoKarabakh
. Previous leaders of
#Armenia
opposed this, as did/do leaders of
#Azerbaijan
.
Dear
#Georgia
,
Now is your chance to remind the world that
#Putin
just violated international law in
#Ukraine
just as he did by invading you and recognizing the independence of
#SouthOssetia
and
#Abkhazia
in 2008.
We We
@LukeDCoffey
Absolutely. No peacekeepers should ever be provided by a neighbor of or party to a conflict. We
#MinskGroup
Co-Chairs also agreed no Co-Chair country should provide peacekeepers for the
#NK
conflict, either.
Grassroots fury in
#Azerbaijan
over perceived military provocation by
#Armenia
that resulted in several Azerbaijani deaths on July 12.
#MinskGroup
needs to investigate and call it like it is or risk military situation spinning out of control.
As repeatedly noted, the end of Armenian troops and a separatist political authority in Azerbaijan's Karabakh region removed the last obstacle to the peace treaty sought by both Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Aliyev.
@LukeDCoffey
Excellent proposal
@LukeDCoffey
. Ganja's role in
#Azerbaijan
's history, economic potential, and strategic location merit a continuous presence there by the U.S. Mission to Azerbaijan.
How replacing decades-old "land for peace" formula with "new wars for new territories" provoked second war over
#NagornoKarabakh
. But, Nov. 9/10 peace agreement provides overlooked strategic benefits to the Transatlantic community.
Extremely important statement by Spokesperson for President of the European Council Charles Michel on Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization. Michel has proven to be an honest, shrewd, and effective broker. He clearly sees hope for a peace treaty.
#Azerbaijan
and
#Armenia
should prepare to move
#NagornoKarabakh
conflict beyond military phase & back to serious negotiations. War is the continuation of politics by other means. Hence, all wars end at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield.
#Armenia
-
#Turkey
reconciliation is moving forward. Unlike in 2009,
#Azerbaijan
is not opposed and the parties, rather than the US, are driving the process. This could facilitate Armenia's reintegration into the regional economy and bolster the peace.
Getting U.S.-Turkey relations back on track through cooperation with Greece, Ukraine, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, as well as on trade/energy and Afghanistan. Difficult, but possible.
#Armenia
and
#Azerbaijan
peace agreement provides a framework for a just and lasting settlement of the
#NagornoKarabakh
conflict in line with what both countries' leaders preliminarily agreed in 2009.
Powerful analysis of the changing nature of warfare:
How
#Azerbaijan
used novel UAV technologies and tactics to destroy Russian weapons used by
#Armenia
during
#NagornoKarabakh
war.
Fighting between
#Azerbaijan
and
#Armenia
stems from loss of faith on both sides in international mediation of
#NagornoKarabakh
conflict, leaving a vacuum for
#Russia
and
#Turkey
to fill. War is the continuation of politics by other means....
@LukeDCoffey
@SecBlinken
Georgian government's overreach is a chance for its unified opposition to make clear that it is responsible and ready to do the tough political work required to compel the government back toward democracy. Such an effort would need and merit full U.S. and EU support.
Here is a visionary report that defines the practical challenges & opportunities for charting a potentially peaceful and prosperous future for Azerbaijanis and Armenians living together again rather than re-freezing the
#NagornoKarabakh
conflict.
@IlvesToomas
Quite a powerful sign of solidarity with Ukraine that Estonia is apparently sending all of its Javelins and 122mm howitzers to Ukraine, while Latvia and Lithuania take similar steps, leaving all 3 somewhat exposed military.
#CharlesMichel
's balanced, sober, and insightful press statement on
#Pashinyan
-
#Aliyev
meeting he mediated suggests substantive progress toward a peace agreement despite high enduring tensions and occasional provocations, especially along Lachin Corridor:
Turkey and Russia may fill a diplomatic vacuum in Azerbaijan-Armenia disputes, which, if left unattended, might escalate into a broader conflict threatening strategic communication links on which U.S. & Europe rely and which Russia, Iran, and China oppose.
#Turkey
’s Black Sea gas find, if ultimately as big as announced, could replace all gas imports from Russia for nearly 13 years. A less dependent Ankara would gain leverage over Moscow in gas price talks, and also in Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan/Armenia.
During his press conference with his Italian counterpart, President Trump just said the PKK is a bigger terrorist threat than ISIS.
That’s a gigantic gift for President Erdogan.
#NATO
’s 2010 Strategic Concept called for “true strategic partnership” with
#Russia
. Kremlin pocketed this goodwill, along with
#Obama
’s “Russia Reset”, then invaded Ukraine. US & EU now aim to isolate & weaken Russia for first time since Cold War.
@scharap
How in the world could "isolating Maduro" possibly be on the same level as preventing
#Putin
from unraveling Europe's post-WWII security system by invading
#Ukraine
, murdering thousands of innocent civilians, and threatening use of nuclear weapons?
#USsanctions
against business in
#Donbas
is a weak response that will only embolden
#Putin
. After all, no serious businesspeople are doing business in Donbas.
#Putin
is counting on Western fecklessness to allow him to keep pushing the envelope.
There seemed to be progress today toward resolution of
#Armenia
's domestic political crisis, with an agreed path to new elections possibly emerging. Getting there could help Armenia reintegrate into its regional economy, prosper, and heal wounds of war
@ProfBShaffer
@USEmbassyBaku
#Novruz
is such a beautiful holiday, celebrating life, love, family, rebirth, and joy for everyone regardless of ethnicity, religion, race, or anything else. Time to leap for unity and cooperation across all the Caucasus, Central Asia, and beyond!
#Putin
's invasion has failed. He demoralized his army, murdered thousands of
#Ukrainians
, and failed to capture any major city. Now he pretends to protect Russian speakers in Donbas from a "Nazi" regime led by a Russian-speaking Jewish president.
@LukeDCoffey
@Airbnb
Exactly,
@LukeDCoffey
.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 & occupied both Abkhazia & South Ossetia, after stoking separatism (including militarily) in both for years.
It's akin to
@Airbnb
offering properties in "Peoples Republic of Donetsk". Dumb and contrary to intl. law.
#Kazakhstan
President
#Tokayev
has declared political war on his patron,
#Nazarbayev
, leaving Tokayev weak and reliant on
#Putin
, especially after ridiculous treason charge against Kazakhstan's former security services chief.
@LukeDCoffey
Yes! Georgia should already be a NATO member because it qualifies, and NATO will be better off with Georgia in. So, not giving Georgia even a MAP is absurd. NATO's refusal to do so at its 2008 Bucharest Summit was the red meat Putin needed to invade, and Ukraine was next.
When
#Putin
threatened to use nuclear weapons, NATO "deescalated." Now,
#Putin
has again probed with a strike just a few miles from NATO territory in
#Poland
.
#Russia
will annihilate Kyiv and attack NATO's East if NATO doesn't seize the initiative NOW.
As U.S. and Turkey demonize each other,
#realDonaldTrump
is making it harder to secure Pastor Brunson's release while aggravating U.S.'s strategic challenges in
#MiddleEast
and strengthening Moscow's hand.
#Putin
’s belligerence is reawakening debate about NATO membership in
#Finland
whose president,
#SauliNiinisto
, commands
#Putin
’s respect. Finland has potent air force, artillery, and civilian defense and fought USSR to standstill in 1939.
Government of
#Turkey
keeps pressure on
#SaudiArabia
to come clean by dribbling out details of
#Khoshoggi
murder. Watch for big revelations by
#Ankara
on Tuesday.
#KSA
and
#POTUS
have 2 more days to work out way to avoid rupture in U.S.-Saudi relations once truth is known.
@LukeDCoffey
This is an increasingly important question as
#Lukashenko
signals his troops may attack
#Ukraine
. If that happens,
#NATO
forces should target
#Belasrusian
troops in both Ukraine and Belarus. Otherwise, the West will again suggest that
#Moscow
enjoys impunity from warcrimes.
During his press conference with his Italian counterpart, President Trump just said the PKK is a bigger terrorist threat than ISIS.
That’s a gigantic gift for President Erdogan.
All
#Putin
wants from
#Biden
is validation that he exists on the same level as the US President. Putin needs this for his domestic political survival.
#Biden
gave that grand prize away at the beginning of the negotiating process, before Putin yielded anything concrete.
Sad that the next 3 months will be very difficult for peace. Not just because the war is so fresh or even protests in Yerevan, but because anniversaries of Baku, Black January, Khodjali, and Sumgait are all coming up. How both Armenia and Azerbaijan handle them crucial.
#Karabakh
#Ankara
's condemnation of current coup attempt in
#Armenia
may seem surprising, since
#Turkey
and Armenia lack official relations. But
#Erdogan
's biggest concern is military intervention in politics, having narrowly survived Turkey's 2016 coup effort.
Please join
@AtlanticCouncil
's webinar on Israel-Turkey relations starting at 3:30pm Israel/Turkey time or 8:30 am EST, which I am very much looking forward to moderating.
Democracy is alive in
#Turkey
, even if challenged. AKP candidate for Istanbul Mayor Yildirm (former Prime Minister and Parliament Speaker) is squaring off now on Fox TV Turkey with opposition candidate Imamoglu before rerun of Istanbul poll. Debate is open, tough, and respectful
Great report by
#RUSI
on
#Turkisharmy
's innovative & devastating massed drone attack on Syrian Army tanks.
Need to rethink tactics and procurement of the main battle tank. Turkey fought Assad to a standstill, so Putin sued for peace...at least for now.
Lovely move by Greece to rally aid for Turkiye following devastating twin earthquakes. May this be the start of something akin to the warming in Greece-Turkey relations after another pair of earthquakes in summer 1999, one in Turkey and one in Greece.
@AliTahmizian
Do you not want peace? Is Vardanyan an "indigenous Armenian"?
It's now up to Azerbaijan to fulfill its pledges to create security, economic, cultural and all other conditions to enable all who left their homes due to the Karabakh conflict to return, regardless of ethnicity.
Turkish democracy is indeed still vibrant, warts and all. Opposition candidate
#Imamoglu
's victory in Istanbul's mayoral election has been recognized by both his opponent, former PM Yildirim, and President Erdogan. Time to move forward in cooperative spirit, as all 3 stated..
Expect continuing cycle of escalation/de-escalation by
#Putin
, who is using threat of (further) military force against
#Ukraine
as a negotiating tool, probing for cracks in
#NATO
solidarity, all in violation of
#Russia
’s multiple international commitments.
As the US-Turkish relationship continues to meltdown it’s a good time to highlight a briefing note prepared for Lady Thatcher on her 2nd day as Prime Minister regarding the strategic importance of Turkey. 👇🏻
Sanctions on
#Russia
are working, or at least
#Putin
seems to think so, as
#Duma
rushes into law "special economic measures" for the "special military operation" against
#Ukraine
. Russian economy may be heading back to the USSR...
Poll: Only 3% of
#Ukraine
's citizens believe Donbass ceasefire was the most important political event of 2020, and only 1% believe the war in general in Donbass was. This seems somehow to be geo-strategically important.
@GoldenTent
@presidentaz
And again, get your "facts" straight: I am not a lobbyist for Turkey, and while serving as the US Co-Chair of the Minsk Group, I pressed Azerbaijan so hard to compromise that several Members of Azerbaijan's Parliament demanded that I be declared persona non-grata in Azerbaijan.
An unconventional and well-reasoned piece: sharp analysis based on eyewitness experience and wisdom.
#Turkey
has now bought itself responsibility for northern Syria and it’s in the US national interest for Turkey to succeed.
#Merkel
's lesson for
#DonaldTrump
to secure prisoner releases in Turkey: speak with quiet resolve, act firmly, and avoid pubic threats. No wonder this U.S. President and Germany's Chancellor don't get along.
Red Alert:
#Russia
used staged artillery strikes by
#SouthOssetian
separatists, and Georgian troops' reply, to justify its invasion of Georgia in 2008.
Wakeup call for West in
#Ukraine
: Focus not on a "compromise to avert a
#Russian
invasion" but rather on thwarting
#Putin
's attempt to destabilize Ukraine and prevent it from ever becoming a
#NATO
-worthy democracy. This will be a long struggle....
@GoldenTent
@presidentaz
I'd love to participate in an analogous conference with the national leadership of Armenia to explore the full range for possibilities for regional investment, trade, economic growth, and political stability as the foundations of a lasting peace. Please organize one!
@YusufErim34
Yes! PM
#Pashinyan
recognizes the enormous economic and security benefits that would accrue to
#Armenia
and the region by normalizing relations with Turkey. He also is committed to finalizing peace with
#Azerbaijan
, which would enable normalization with Ankara. Hopeful moment!
Excellent point,
@tgoudsouzian
. Ankara has kept the pressure on both Riyadh and Washington not to sweep this atrocity under the rug, but without boxing King Salman into an impossible corner. Turkey is now exiting Washington's doghouse and developing leverage over Saudi Arabia.
"Ankara is demonstrating a keen understanding of the power of smart power in telling its story and influencing domestic and international opinion." A piece I co-wrote with
@YusufErim79
via
@MiddleEastEye
Amb. Jim Jeffrey notes Russia and Syria are "joined at the hip" militarily in Syria and jointly responsible for February attack in
#Idlib
that killed 33 Turkish soldiers, after which
#Turkey
fought Russia-Syria to a standstill and ceasefire.
#AC_Istanbul
Webinar just now
#Russia
’s disregard for international commitments in politics and sport: mysterious shelling in Donbas (as when Russia provoked its war in Georgia in 2008) while figure skater
#KamilaVasilyeva
crashes out of
#Olympics
amid doping scandal. Cheaters cheat...
@mikercarpenter
Well said, Mike. Junker himself is one of the reasons why popular support for the EU is eroding within its member states. He has no moral compass, and presided over mass corruption in his own country's banking system. He is the quintessential unelected Euro-elite.
Deeply insightful account by
@timjudah1
of how
#Ukrainian
ingenuity (including exercise mats and mobile phones), ferocity, javelin anti-tank missiles and
#Russian
mistakes and rigid command structures thwarted
#Putin
's assault on
#Kyiv
.
Unsent Tweets
Edit
Drafts
Scheduled
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to reinforce Germany's instinct to block Georgia's NATO accession. Then, the EU (incorrectly) blamed Georgia for shooting first, while the US failed to deter further Russian aggression.
Turkey visit by
#VPPence
and Secretary
#Pompeo
won't persuade President
#Erdogan
to cease mil. ops. It will instead buy time for Ankara to establish "safe zone" in northeastern Syria.
#Russia
is making a joke of its September 2018 pact with
#Turkey
to establish & maintain a demilitarized zone in northwest Syria’s Idlib province to protect civilians. Now, Russia is deliberately bombing those civilians. War crimes?
Leaders open TANAP pipeline carrying gas from Azerbaijan to Europe pipeline-carrying-gas-from-azerbaijan-to-europe-133191. Participation in TANAP ceremony by Turkish Cypriot leader Akinci suggests Turkey wants to bring East Med gas into Southern Corridor.
@trtworld
Thank you
#trtworld
for the opportunity to share my views. I believe a positive breakthrough in U.S.-Turkey relations is within reach, and am convinced this will be good for the U.S., Turkey, all of Turkey's neighbors, and the world.
US forces on heightened alert for potential conflict with Moscow in Europe for first time since the Second Berlin Crisis of 1961. Peaceniks will disagree, but this step is crucial to dissuading Putin from further escalating his self-made crisis.