The market has gone through a stretch where tech has been out of favor.
🔴 The $QQQ hasn't made a new ATH since mid-July while the S&P 500 $SPY $SPX and Dow $DIA have both made ATHs multiple times this month.
🔴 Only ONE Mag 7 name has hit an ATH since July 11 - $META
🔴 Tech
Some volatility stats for all y’all today 🧵
$VIX $SVXY $UVXY $VXX
On Monday, the VIX traded as high as 65.73, +181% from Friday’s close (and after the VIX gained 42% last week)
It ended higher by ~65% yesterday
That was the second-largest one-day gain for the VIX -- ever!
@RyanDetrick
@C_Barraud
I keep seeing this, but question it.
In order for it to be true we have to know the bottom. We can't know the bottom until it's in hindsight.
take the 07 to 09 stretch. $SPX fell 20%+ to its low in March 2008, reclaimed half the losses, then bottomed a year later.
@TradingComposur
Years and years ago, I wish I knew that. It's not a moving average or an indicator or a volume profile that brings the results.
It's all upstairs - in your head.
You need a strategy, of course, and risk management parameters. But the "mental" is so often overlooked...
@TheDrugMoney
Automated investing.
Takes out the stress of choosing when to buy, never have to remember to transfer money, and it’s a long-term wealth builder.
@WalterDeemer
"...Can't go any higher!"
As it rides a 7 week win streak (its best since 2017) and last week, had its best week amid this rally since the first week it began.
The market doesn't care what anyone thinks. Never has, never will!
@SethCL
But that is assuming we know *the low* -- It only works in hindsight.
For instance, if we thought the low was in in Q1, the $SPX reclaimed the 50% retrace, then failed.
If you need an actual "bear market" (assuming 20% correction, but another discussion) SPX also failed in '08
"Upon learning of the end of the world, the proper trade is to go long, not short."
Why go long if the world is ending?
“It never does end,” his boss told him, and even if it does, “who are you going to settle the trade with?”
by
@ritholtz
$SPY $SPX
A LOT of potential room to run if $AMD is able to wake up and join the $NVDA party.
The companies are not the same and I'm not insinuating that they are. But I'll let price action lead the way.
Keeping an eye on this $165 area.
@paxtrader777
Once you have made enough $ to clear the main hurdles, it should be used to buy experience and happiness w/ your friends & family. At least that's my take!
@traderstewie
Sometimes the urge to revenge trade is so great, u must get up and walk away.
Go to lunch, for a walk. Take a leak. Anything. Get away from the screen!
Only take ur top setups, measured in an unemotional state & use alerts. You can react mechanically not emotionally that way!
A weekly view of $TSLA.
wonderful undercut of the prior low and recovery.
Tonight we'll find out if it has legs or if it falters.
Legs: $250 to $255 in play.
No Legs: Sub-$200, then $182 to $192.
I am trying not to carry a bias in regards to the market & recognize that
A. price is leading indicator
B. We could go higher
But can't help but seen prior Q1/Q2 support is now resistance, medium term MA resistance (21-week sma) & lack of any real capitulation.
$SPY $SPX
@anothercohen
Why is renting vs. owning so triggering to so many people? 😂
The point is, depending on the scenario you can make a valid case for both. It’s like there’s no gray area in this debate for many people — just black and white.
@OphirGottlieb
Man, I don't get it. People want to go on and on about rights and freedoms, etc.
FFS man, it's a mask. get over it. No one is taking your freedom; society is just asking you not to be an asshole.
Hate to be Mr. Positive over here 😅, but according to FactSet:
➡️ 91% of $SPX companies have reported earnings, with 78% beating expectations.
➡️ Q2 earnings clocking in at 10.8%, the best growth since Q4 2021.
Estimates can change, but consensus expectations calls for even
$MTCH - gotta say, it's hard to hate this chart.
Look at the way it bounces off the backside of prior downtrend resistance & the 200-day MA
as
@traderstewie
says, returning to the scene of the crime
Chart (Free trial w/ signup) ->
@unusual_whales
wow, pretty insane given that $GOOG $GOOGL stock lost more than one-third of its market value last year and had a YoY decline in profits.
Not saying he deserved to be canned, but damn.
$AMZN down 4% to 5% A/Hs. Beat on AWS and crushed EPS, but missed on revenue. Q3 guide was light too.
Loved this line in the PR tho:
'Free cash flow increased to $53.0B for the trailing 12 months, compared with $7.9B for the trailing 12 months ended June 30, 2023.' 🤯🤯
@BlogJulianKomar
Calm under pressure
Does their study time
Properly positioned size-wise
Knows risk before the trade is initiated
Has a strategy that fits their style.
In other words: Strategy, Risk Control, Hard worker and Experience.
I heard these mantras for a long time, knowing them but never fully grasping them. It takes time to learn in the markets and survival is the key during that period.
Here are 4 tips that helped me "get there."
What are yours top tips?
Hardly a panic out there.
$VIX well below last week's high
NYSE volume is actually in favor of advances not declines
and Nasdaq volume isn't all that bad even though $QQQ might make you think so.
Anyone who tells you that trading is super easy is either:
1. A fucking liar, or
2. So new to the game they haven’t been humbled yet.
Either way, it is probably a good idea to take their commentary w/ a grain of salt
Those you SHOULD listen to have a very no b/s approach
September Equals Stock Market Volatility. Get Over It.
-Great piece by
@LaMonicaBuzz
. Thanks for including my thoughts in this one!
"Eight of the last nine times that the S&P 500 fell in September, it was up in the next three and six months."
👇
SO. MANY. BEARS are jumping out because the $SPX $SPY is down...
Down 1.5% from Monday's high...
After rallying 8% in 8 days and 10%+ off the lows.
SPX is up 17% YTD and 26% over the past year. But yes, go off about how we're down 1.9% from ATHs lol
@cperruna
So many names. $TWLO $PINS $ROKU $TTD $JMIA $FTCH are good starts.
I just did a video on "When I Start Buying Growth Stocks."
It's my first YT video and it's a little long. But I think it's really helpful. Or at least, I hope it is. Cheers~
$SPY $SPX - Obviously investors are pretty pumped about the recent rally to ATHs & up 10 in a row
But it would be healthy and constructive to see a dip from here. Specifically, a pullback into the $520 to $525 area -- the prior ATH zone -- would be great IMO
Agree or disagree?
@traderstewie
"Ninety-three trade opportunities were found. Of those, 67 reached $100 after being triggered at $90; eight were still active but hadn’t reached $100 yet; and 18 failed to reach the $100 target."
Interesting.
@jimcramer
The news was not well timed for traders, but there's little question the US is operating from a position of strength vs. weakness.
Strong GDP report.
Strong Jobs report.
Stock Market near all-time high.
How is China doing?
$SPX $SPY $DIA $QQQ $IWM $RUT
The $VIX rallied ~65% on Monday Aug 5. That's its second-largest one-day rally ever 🤯
The good news?
When the VIX spikes 40% or more in a single day, the $SPX $SPY was higher one year later more than 90% of the time.
@OphirGottlieb
Even $DIS investors know it. Stock up even on park closures news too.
Investors are turning from "the world is ending" to "good, let's get this over with and move forward."
That's step 1. Doesn't mean the low is in, but it's a start.
most traders would benefit more from reading psychology books than trading books IMO.
Once you stop looking for the holy grail on the charts and start realizing that it's in your head, it becomes a completely different game.
$AMC $GOGO $BBBY $GME - these short squeezes are mercilessly filleting the shorts right now.
It's the ultimate lesson in 'the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' and another lesson in position sizing.
Feels like I've stopped hearing about $AMZN here on
#FinTwit
, so might be one to start watching again.
Doji candle last week and struggling w/ the 21-week moving average. Would love a dip to the 50-week sma at this point or ~3250.
That has been active support.
@StateOfLinkedIn
"I now pronounce you husband and wife."
"Ah. Amazing! Now Jenny, if you don't mind, the board would like a quick word. If you could join us in the conference room that'd be great."
😂
This was actually a big beneficiary for me! Helps tune out the noise and just focus on a few stocks and trade them based on what they are doing.
Even now, I still keep my PnL minimized throughout the day.
One small tip i like to give traders who are struggling or battling this two headed beast:
Is to NOT look or trade your PnL during the day!
Minimize the PnL box/screen... and only look at the price action of your stock(s). Trade only what's happening in the stock, not the PnL
If it acts like a bull
trades like a bull
bounces like a bull
short-squeezes like a bull
shrugs off bad news like a bull
has more new highs than new lows like a bull
Then I hate to tell you but...IT'S PROBABLY A BULL 🐂
Now THIS chart is a thing of beauty 🤑
$PLTR with a picture perfect move off a nice Support/Resistance flip + clearing downtrend resistance in style
Print this one off and study it IMO
Chair Powell "delivered exactly what investors were hoping for," eToro US investment analyst Bret Kenwell says. "He provided clarity [on] where the Fed stands with its monetary policy [and] basically laid out the path to cutting rates in September."
At some point they will ram this $SPY $SPX higher, as we are short-term oversold and bears get too far offsides/cocky
Once they shake out the weak hands, we'll see who grabs control of the ball
Remember, we don't make the waves like the big funds/institutions. we just ride them
Why a GamePlan Is an Absolute Must for Trading ->
Without a Game Plan I'm lost, stressed and emotional.
With it -- well, opposite might be a stretch :) -- but I'm certainly less of those things!
a lot of growth stocks snapping back from those Friday/Monday lows, but failing at the declining 10-day ema.
Not all. but just an observation that this group may not be out of the woods just yet.
Got this idea from
@alphatrends
and using
@TrendSpider
for the anchored VWAPs, H/T to those two.
Just an interesting perspective for $SPY $QQQ and $IWM, using the Jan 24. and Feb. 24 lows -- also interesting dates, just sayin'
$PD - 50-week ma was resistance, now support. Shares holding the 10-week EMA & going weekly up over $27.92.
4 more days to go, but also working on an inside month. Will be looking for the inside "and up" in August potentially.
cc:
@OphirGottlieb
$FSLY - date w/ the 50-day perhaps. Getting a nice little washout here.
Kudos to
@OphirGottlieb
who put this on my radar at the start of the year & the reason I had confidence to add to it at $12.50 in March.
$PYPL - nice burst across some of the shorter timeframes (5m, 15m, 30m & 1hr).
Data via TradeMachine shows solid long setup ahead of earnings - ty
@OphirGottlieb
Chart via:
Ha, love it! -- 'WallStreetBets Announces First Live Trading Championship'
Twelve competitors to compete for cash prize over three days in October 2020
->
@moon_shine15
is definitely one of my favorite follows. No idea how it took me so long to run across his work. Constant prep, always grinding.
Ton of respect man ✊🏼
$GOOGL $GOOG now has the DoJ news as a possible overhang (even though a breakup could be a good thing) for investors.
But technically speaking, nearly a picture-perfect move thus far to the 161.8% extension and now a healthy pullback to the 200-day/50-wee area & prior highs 👇
Hey can I give a shoutout to
@EyeoftheStormZ
? He's in a chat room over at
@GarageTrading
This dude is real af. He's in there dropping some knowledge & trying to help and even better, he's in there too, learning about candle wicks and such.
Props Craig. Cool stuff!