I've said openly that I think Poppi and/or Olipop will be acquired for > $1 billion in the near future (2024-2025).
Both are at a size where they risk becoming a really expensive acquisition if they continue to grow on their own. Grow on your own also might not look as enticing
Prediction for CPG:
The small coalition of acquirers will make considerable moves this year to snatch up the new generation of winning brands.
I believe:
Ollipop
Poppi
Prime
All get acquired in the next 12-18 months.
A non-comprehensive + personal thoughts 𧡠on Expo West 2022β¦including: How was your show? What did you see? What are people talking about? Wen NFT? + some other things on my mind after the show:
Got sick of looking at the stupid Doge icon on Twitter so I had ChatGPT write a Chrome extension that replaces it with an image of a Negroni
(which I created with Midjourney for maximum AI dork effect)
Gatorade is launching Gatorade Water to compete with Smart Water, Essentia, and other electrolyte infused waters
Kinda interesting that the brand sat on the sidelines while several of these brands became big $$ companies and gained a strong foothold in the category
π¨ Breaking News:
@AthleticBrewing
gets $50 million investment from KDP for a minority investment π
Total raise of $75 million as more than 25 existing investors went in on the round
Also: very cool to see the $$$ coming from a non-beer strategic
Been trying to get a sense of how an NFT launch can help a food/beverage brand.
A bunch of thoughts & questions after looking at what's out there. Sharing to see what others think. NFA, DYOR, etc.
π§΅π
Decided to start tracking the small but growing number of food/beverage/CPG-related web3 entries.
Feel free to check it out & contribute if we've missed anything.
Couple of thoughts on this:
This is a brand that has been built for exit since its early days and is at or nearing the point where offers will be $1 billion+. Good news for the founders given all the cash they've raised.
While Coke & Pepsi probably came "knocking" a while ago
Most super successful beverage food & brands aren't offering something thatβs radically different.
They're selling something that's a slight derivative of a product with established demand and/or they're selling a very similar product but doing it in a new way.
I've said it before & I'll say it again: If your beverage requires a 5 minute explanation of its functional benefits that's....not a recipe for success.
This is going to be the year of startup CPG brands using NFTs to fund initial product runs and seed capital.
Not a bad approach vs maxing out your credit cards, Kickstarters, or friends & family $.
Getting as far as you can on your own is always a good thing.
Last week I sold a business that I own
Iβm not going to drop a π§΅π
But I will say that it was a pleasure working with
@GoodsCapital
to make it happen π ππ
VPX Sports (aka Bang Energy) is filing chapter 11 bankruptcy
Company calls it a βrestorative strategyβ as they rebuild DSD
Comes on heels of a couple of judgements agains the company (worth ~$500m or maybe much more) + break up with Pepsi (~$200m fee)
Is this a fair summary of DTC for RTD beverage?
β’ Great for incubating & testing
β’ Great for selling product/merch to the most engaged users
β’ Not scalable vs wholesale
β’ DTC ops can be distracting when pushing into retail
β’ DTC sales might π when retail doors go π
So Foxtrot failed because...
(just compiling all the theories I've seen)
- Too small & too curated and lacked volume products
- Took on debt financing that it couldn't afford
- Too many stores too fast
- General mismanagement
- Retail is a super tough business
Did I miss
Epic times last night with
@snaxshot
x
@bevnet
at our pre-Expo party. Thank you all who turned out!
Cannot thank you enough
@iiiitsandrea
for making it happen πππ. Hope we can do it again.
Couldn't find a viable path forward...
Chest pound a little about having "such a strong brand"...
But couldn't be bothered to warn or even directly notify vendors/brands who probably lose important inventory & receivables
Such a weird and unfortunate ending
Gm. Just a reminder that what other companies are doing / $$$ they are raising shouldn't be a roadblock to you pushing forward with whatever you are working on.
Always interesting to see what happens to someone when they get π°π°π° from an exit
Some become humble & treat people with kindness/respect because the pressure is off
Some go scorched earth & want to teach people a lesson, especially those who challenged them in the past
And
Yes, if you are a food/beverage brand you should go to Expo West.
Exhibit? Slightly more complicated and definitely not for every brand
Hope to cya there
In CPG, being the "world's first ______" is generally not a good thing...especially in the short term
Consumer probably doesn't know what it is
Or why they need it
Education is slow & costly
Retailers might not have a place for it
Plus, Humble Growth (a trio of
@RXBAR
founder Peter Rahal,
@DrinkOrgain
founder Andrew Abraham, and CPG lawyer extraordinaire Nick Giannuzzi) are finally going public with their $312 million fund
The cycle of CPG investment $$ sometimes looks the ocean receding before a massive waveβ¦It looks like itβs drying up and going away but then it comes back in full force if not stronger
CPG innovation by brands happens at a much more rapid pace than new ideas are actually adopted by consumers. Generally speaking, the more innovative the idea the longer the cycle of incubation and adoption will be.
Was this thing a success? Absolutely. Big win for everyone involved to get back to CPGβs biggest & most important eventβ¦IYKYN and itβs honestly pretty hard to articulate all the benefit from it. Just go. Book your plans for 2023 now.
#notapaidendorsement
π
Who from CPG Twitter is going to be at
#expoeast
? Hit me up!
Aside from the show floor, I'll be at the Startup CPG party + the RodeoCPG party on Thursday night AND the WeStock party on Friday night.
NGL, the liquid is pretty epic
@AthleticBrewing
x
@DRINKSUPERCO
βSuped Upβ
Tastes like a coffee stout + 5 grams of protein
Highly recommend you get yourself a can
Liquid Death closed a $70M series D
Some key points:
β’ Raise lead by Science Ventures + Live Nation
β’ $130M in revenue for 2022; expecting > $250M in 2023
β’ Valuation of > $700M
β’ Co has raised over $195M
Insane progress for a 3 yr old brand π₯π
Non-alc beer & spirits have come so far but still feel like they are going to improve so much more. Really excited to see this trend continue to thrive.
Being an entrepreneur is a tough ride. Donβt let Twitter threads convince you otherwise (or make you feel bad if you are in the weeds)β¦especially those that make it out like you can methodically do everything right without any emotion.