Will Slaughter @BamaBonds Twitter profile

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

The rebranding of linear algebra as "artificial intelligence" may be the most successful marketing campaign of all time.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

It is both hilarious and somehow inevitable that Donald Trump has, entirely by accident, solved his financial problems, overfunded his campaign, personally enriched himself, and made a total ingenious end run around campaign finance laws, by turning himself into a meme stock.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

I feel like there are a startling number of people who work in real estate who don’t realize that their industry has been running a giant levered long bond fund for the past 40 years.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

What makes this latest Trumpian stroke of improbable luck especially hilarious is that it never would have happened but for the strenuous efforts of “protectors of democracy” to deplatform him and erase his voice from the public square.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

Anyway, watching $DJT fly higher this morning is a reminder that Donald Trump truly is the Godzilla of American politics. Trying to use nukes against him is futile, as the radiation only makes him stronger.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

It seems like Michael Burry, like John Paulson and the other Big Short heroes, is indeed nothing more than a one hit wonder. The financial press has spent a decade+ trying to portray Powerball winners as economic savants.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

As $XOM quietly celebrates a fresh all-time high today, it's worth remembering this magnificently stupid tweet from one of the worst investors in the world. Cumulative total returns since posting this nonsense on July 15, 2020? $XOM: +233% $ARKK: -40%

Cathie Wood

@CathieDWood

4 years

Oil demand probably hit a secular peak last year and, thanks to #EVs , now is in secular “decline”. Though ARK has no formal forecast, I believe that #Oilprices are on their way back to $12, the level reached after the 1973 oil cartel crisis, or lower, now that EVs are taking off.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Why the Fed is going to need to cut rates. A thread- The SIVB crisis marks a phase change in the US financial system that renders the current highly inverted yield curve intolerable. Merely providing liquidity won't help banks much when the problem is upside down balance sheets.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

Trump (again without thinking) has stolen the genius of Hunter Biden’s art scam or SBF’s FTX grift and implemented it on a vastly larger, and yet completely legal, scale. It is yet another brave new frontier in money laundering, conflicts of interest, and influence peddling.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

6 months

Now, donors big & small, any of his near 100 million voters, foreign governments- whoever- can effectively make direct, untraceable donations to Trump personally, to use however he sees fit. And (when $DJT eventually goes to zero), these gifts will effectively be tax deductible.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Ballooning inventories, desperation price cuts, rental fleet sales, panel gaps, poor quality control- and now trying to paper the whole thing over with advertising. Tesla starting to look more like 1980s Detroit every day.

Reuters

@Reuters

1 year

Elon Musk reverses course and says Tesla will advertise its cars

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Given that this it is now possible to get close to 7% over 10 to 30 years in fairly low risk bonds, the minimum hurdle rate for investment in any risky or equity, partnership, or real estate investment should probably be at least 12%.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

But the fundamental problem is the absurdity of being able to put unlimited money directly at the Fed (via MM funds) at 5 or 6% while still expecting deposits to stay at banks at 0-1%. This was a highly unstable equilibrium to begin with, SIVB merely touched off the avalanche.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

At this point, Musk’s management of this platform can only be understood as a conscious effort to goad the 1st lien creditors into a foreclosure action.

Belinda Barnet

@manjusrii

1 year

X has removed both headlines and subheads when displaying external links—it just features a key image from the destination. This will impact news on here significantly: it strips out crucial info/context for users scrolling past news articles. This just keeps getting worse

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

It’s clear that Jeffrey Epstein ran, for decades, a honey trap/kompromat scheme designed to ensnare & blackmail the world’s wealthiest & most influential people- apparently with the complicity of US intelligence services. It’s time for the truth, no matter who it embarrasses.

Charles Forelle

@charlesforelle

1 year

Bill Gates had an affair with a Russian bridge player around 2010. Then Jeffrey Epstein found out.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 month

For the 100th time, how to become a “star bond fund manager”: 1) Benchmark against low yielding Ts in the Agg; 2) Overallocate to corporates & MBS; 3) Outperform 9/10 years when there’s no equity crash; 4) Collect Morningstar awards; 5) Don’t do anything dumb to derail the scam!

Erin Arvedlund

@erinarvedlund

1 month

The other "bond king." Abrupt departure of co-CIO Ken Leech raises due diligence bar for Western Asset Management clients via @pensionsnews @bySophieBaker @dappell

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

That ship has sailed. The SIVB crisis gives customers a powerful incentive to shift deposits out of banks into money market funds. The economic incentive (5% rates vs 0%) was already there, it was only laziness/ convenience which kept cash in banks. Fear is now making money move.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

11 months

Sequoia will never live down the fact they got snowed by one of the most obvious and preposterous con men in the history of business, did no work or due diligence on a major capital commitment, and put a cringeworthy fawning profile of a criminal on their website.

Alfred Lin

@Alfred_Lin

11 months

Today’s swift and unanimous verdict confirms what we already knew: that SBF misled and deceived so many, from customers and employees to business partners and investors, including myself and Sequoia.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

The bottom line is that inverted yield curves are poison for financial institutions, and it is now obvious that the Fed has administered too much poison to the system. It's time to walk the rate hikes back and think of other ways to work on inflation.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 month

The biggest mistake I have made in my career was believing, somewhere back in the mid 2000s, that EM local currency fixed income was going to become a key asset class for developed market investors. It's been 20 years of lackluster returns and... crickets.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

4 months

I've got to admit, a $2 trillion budget deficit after 4 years of robust economic growth and high nominal inflation is pretty scary...just imagine how big this number will be in the next recession...probably $4 trillion or more.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

This is, of course, largely a problem of the Fed's own making. Its reckless, stupid, & unnecessary QE program of 2021 (combined with ultra dovish forward guidance) actively encouraged banks to load up on low coupon, long duration, and/or negatively convex securities.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Man, if only you could travel back in time to short the European financials index (SX7E) at the start of the year to take advantage of the Credit Suisse crisis you could have *checks notes* - lost 9% YTD in dollar terms on your hedge?

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

The $SIVB failure is all about asset liability mismatch. It is not a credit risk/ bad asset story at all. It is in many ways more shocking than the 2008 crackups because it’s such an elemental failure of the bread-and-butter risk management banks & regulators are supposed to do.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Looks like someone has an epic misunderstanding of securities laws- though not at all surprising for a crypto moron. You learn on day 1 of Series 7 prep that SEC registration implies no government approval whatsoever of a firm’s business model or the legality of its activities.

Meat (🥩,🥩)

@MeatEsq

1 year

Coinbase is a public reporting company. Some of the named assets were trading on the platform when the SEC approved the S-1. This is epic gaslighting.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

5 months

Sacrificing the summer interns… always the sign of a healthy company!

Anne Cronin

@annecronin

5 months

First byline for @KaraCarlson2 at Bloomberg, and it's a doozy: Tesla rescinded interns' offers just weeks before they were supposed to start

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Last Friday, nobody expected the 16th largest depository institution in the US to be seized by the FDIC this Friday. 2nd largest bank failure in U.S. history, essentially out of the clear blue sky. Of course this is a big deal.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

9 months

Since the end of 2011, Boeing has rewarded shareholders with $55 billion in capital return via share buybacks & dividends. During that time $BA stock has cumulatively underperformed Airbus by -243%, the S&P500 by-130%, and US industrial stocks by -56%.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

The most infuriating thing in the government response is that it is uninsured depositors- who knowingly ignored deposit limits & risk management in exchange for executive perks, sweetheart mortgages, & other favors- who are getting their bad behavior rewarded.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

The scam was never affirmative action. It was instead the role accorded to 4 year colleges as finishing schools and prestige laundries designed to varnish the same old entrenched privilege with the shiny glosses of “merit” and “justice.”

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

We will continue to see a huge flight of deposits from the banking system which are going to end up at the Fed's reverse repo facility. Why keep money in risky banks at 0% when you can effectively lend to the Fed at 5%? SIVB provides the catalyst that makes water flow downhill.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

5 months

This appallingly stupid article, appearing just weeks before Tesla effectively killed its charging business- is a perfect illustration of the low quality journalists (ideologues & cheerleaders mostly) Bloomberg has hired for its climate change beat.

Tesla Has Built a Charging Business to Be Taken Seriously

BloombergNEF estimates the company could generate $7.4 billion in revenue and around $740 million in profit by 2030.

www.bloomberg.com

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

10 months

Only a Japanese player could have this level of confidence in low nominal interest rates for the next 20 years.

Kevin D. Water Law

@docKev_

10 months

@FabianArdaya @TheAthletic Give me another lockout. This is ridiculous.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

The Fed's open ended liquidity support for banks like First Republic isn't going to help that much, as deposit flight still means they are suddenly replacing 0% funding with 5% funding against a ~2% coupon investment portfolio.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

22 days

@TheSECScoop Why was Arkansas #40 (Jackson) not ejected for targeting here? Lowered the head and initiated helmet-to-helmet contact…particularly egregious when his opponent’s head is unprotected.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Anecdotally, there is zero evidence in my community that the real estate market is slowing down at all. We bought a house in Dec 2021 (just as rate hikes were starting to get priced) and I’d guess we could probably sell the new house for 20% more today, 16 months & 500 bps later

Brian Sullivan

@SullyCNBC

1 year

Buddy in NJ put his house up for sale a few days ago. Wanted to list at $1.35 million. Realtor told him $1.5m. Reluctantly agreed. House sold in 36 hours for $1.86 million. Hearing other such stories elsewhere. What the heck is going on? Panic buying?

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

I don’t mean to alarm anyone, but so far in 1000+ years of English history, odd-numbered Charlies have a 100% track record of getting their heads chopped off.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Raising rates at the fastest pace in 40 years was only going to go smoothly as long as long as bank funding costs could rise slowly as the asset side of their balance sheets gradually repriced. This required deposit rates to stay near zero even as rates rose everywhere else.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

If you’ve ever complained about Hunter Biden picking up a check for his dad, you should probably be insisting on Clarence Thomas’ immediate retirement from SCOTUS right about now.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

As things stand now, it appears the Fed would be better off being much aggressive on balance sheet reduction while not raising short rates so much, thereby keeping curves steep while still slowing activity with higher long end rates.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

The pitch clock is a great innovation long overdue in baseball. The “purists” can cry in the beer watching paint dry.

Talkin’ Baseball

@TalkinBaseball_

2 years

Entire half inning with pitch clock vs. one pitch without pitch clock

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Sooner or later, Americans are going to figure out why electricity, car prices, and car insurance are rising at such precipitous rates. It’s what happens when you replace proven, reliable & efficient technologies with janky & expensive alternatives in the name of cult loyalty.

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

1 year

🇺🇲 US electricity prices are now up 24% over the past three years.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

After all, if you are bank, why not do exactly the same trade as your regulator is putting on its own balance sheet? But then the Fed rope-a-doped the banking system with the most precipitous rise in short term interest rates in 40+ years. Psych!

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 months

Area man discovers that, absent government oversight and regulation, “depositors” in fly-by-night magic bean casinos are really “unsecured claims in the bankruptcy case.”

big pey

@bigpeyYT

3 months

I just received a letter in the mail today. I am being summoned in a New York Bankruptcy Court by Celsius Network LLC. They're trying to claw back HUNDREDS of THOUSANDs dollars that I withdrew before the collapse. Their goal is to take the money I initially deposited.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

9 months

As Boeing was cannibalizing itself in order to shower shareholders & management with the short-term sugar high of $55B in divvies & buybacks, Airbus returned a comparatively paltry $10B or so shareholders. The reward for Airbus shareholders?- total returns twice that of Boeing.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

7 months

Certainly true in my experience (born in 1973). Events of 08-09 happened shortly after finishing business school, buying a house, and having our first child. Led directly to getting laid off in 2012, a year of unemployment, and a subsequent decade of relative economic insecurity.

Reuben Rodriguez

@ReubenR80027912

7 months

No one wants to hear this but it’s empirically true: The ppl most hurt by 2008 were NOT Millenials. It was a very specific cohort of Gen X born 1967-1973 Saw a great RCM study on 401k balances of this cohort and they never recovered This is important (1/2)

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

At bank type (>10x) leverage, that negative funding spread is going to erode bank capital quickly EVEN IF banks are not forced to sell underwater securities at a loss. And by nuking SIVB hybrids, regulators have just made the cost of replacing that capital much more expensive.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

To stop deposit flight, the Fed needs to dramatically reduce the gradient between riskless money market yields (the reverse repo facility) and bank deposit rates. If that gradient is reduced solely by a sudden shift higher in deposit rates, it's going to destabilize bank capital.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

How toxic is sentiment on coal? $BTU out there trading at 1.5x EV/EBITDA, a P/E of of 3, holding a net cash position of $1.5B with plans to buy back 1/3 of its market cap over the next 12 months. Seem kind of cheap.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

9 months

Great companies, as Boeing used to be, are driven by a sense of mission and purpose quite apart from the bottom line. The failure of leadership at Boeing has been comprehensive, and the house cleaning needs to start all the way at the top, from the BOD on down.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

11 months

Hot new concept in financial intermediation:

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

All of which is to suggest that he government (both Fed and Treasury) need to be a bit more creative in how they are fighting inflation. A much stronger fiscal effort is necessary, while the Fed needs to figure out how to keep the curve steep while tightening policy.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 month

For those keeping score at home, the USA is structurally committed to a program of unending deficit spending from which there is no escape outside of huge FX depreciation & nominal inflation. Monetary policy has been the only brake on this policy. J-Pow just took off the brake.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Evidence continues to mount both in favor of a lab leak and a concerted effort by the small community of virus researchers- led by by people like @K_G_Andersen - to actively suppress investigation of this possibility.

Professor Karol Sikora

@ProfKarolSikora

1 year

My view is that it's almost 100% likely COVID originated from the Wuhan lab - as it has been for some time. We've witnessed essentially a cover up from large parts of the international medical community. The question is now not what was covered up, but why it was covered up?

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Republicans losing a hotly contested statewide race by *10 points* in a state as closely divided as Wisconsin is an important indication of what a loser the abortion issue is for the GOP.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Area octogenarian surprised that a 100-year flood occurs every 100 years or so.

Bernie Sanders

@BernieSanders

1 year

My state has just suffered its worst natural disaster since 1927. The climate crisis is here. For the sake of our common humanity, we must act boldly.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

The lessons banks will take away from 2023 are as follows: 1) Never believe Fed “forward guidance” ever again. 2) Keep that duration gap near zero. 3) Mortgage lending just isn’t worth the trouble. 4) “Relationship banking” counts for nothing when the chips are down.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

8 months

There is no corporate credit, no matter how good it is today, that can justify buying 30 or 40Y paper at single digit credit spreads (bps). Remember, it's only been 25 years or so since $AAPL was on the verge of bankruptcy. A lot can happen in 3 decades.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

It’s taken a decade, but perhaps the world has finally woken up to the fact that the rideshare business (and its red-headed stepchild food delivery) is just a terrible, structurally unprofitable money pit.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

One unexpected benefit of the knife-fight now playing out among various interest groups over affirmative action is that it is exploding, in a hopefully permanent way, the very idea of a “meritocracy” intermediated by elite college admissions.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

3 months

Whatever happens next, Joe Biden did the right thing for both his country and his party. At the end of a long life of public service, he deserves the thanks of all Americans.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

The dead cat bounce is Bitcoin is annoying, but perhaps a sign that the risk apocalypse feared by many in 2023 ain’t gonna happen. Because if this really were the “Big One” as financial earthquakes go, that junk is going back to zero where it belongs.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

If a 5% funds rate hasn’t sunk risk assets, I highly doubt 50bps on 10Y JGBs is going to do it

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

After the most relentless 3 year gaslighting psyop in human history, the truth at last: “Doctors say they're finding it increasingly difficult to distinguish Covid from allergies or the common cold” Maybe we’ll be smarter next time. via @nbcnews

Sore throat, then congestion: Common Covid symptoms follow a pattern now, doctors say

Doctors who treat Covid describe the ways the illness has gotten milder and shifted over time to mostly affect the upper respiratory tract.

www.nbcnews.com

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

15 days

Eventually it’s going to shock people how much peer-reviewed “science”- especially in the biomedical field- is just made up nonsense. Here we see a Nobel Prize being awarded for fabricated results- what does that tell you about everything else?

Ben Landau-Taylor

@benlandautaylor

19 days

Holy shit even *I* am shocked to learn of a *Nobel Prize winner* being caught as a massive serial data fraud.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

11 months

If Milei can implement his program of massive fiscal & monetary austerity (even short of dollarization), the result will likely be painful deflation, sovereign default & recession bordering on depression. Argentina probably needs this, but it will end Milei’s career at 1 term.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

If @CFAinstitute actually took its ethical canons seriously (instead of merely using them as a cudgel to get people to pay dues), it should be revoking a lot of charters from people with the letters CFA after their name who have been shilling for one crypto scam or another.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

if you think Jay Powell getting tricked by pranksters posing as Volodymyr Zelenskyy is embarrassing, wait until you find out about how he fell for Owner Equivalent Rent posing as inflation.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

9 months

Great companies compound wealth by investing in new products and themselves. Dying, second rate companies loot themselves to enrich managers and shareholders who no longer give a damn. Perhaps Boeing should start fixing its problems by stopping its own self-looting.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Stopping bank runs is good public policy. Many who are disappointed that VCs got away without paying a pound of flesh should encourage Fed/ Treasury to get even by simply enforcing money laundering, tax evasion & securities laws, thereby ending VC enabled crypto scammery forever.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Argentina heads for another exchange crisis, maxi-devaluation & debt default before the 2023 PASO in August. A fitting end for the lies & incompetence of Team Fernandez/CFK & the magical thinking their supporters, 4 years after the 2019 PASO snuffed out reform hopes in Argy.

John Lothian

@JohnLothian

1 year

Argentina to Restrict FX Access for Oil Companies’ Imports via @YahooFinance

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Imagine being one hit wonder Michael Burry, thinking your broken clock systemic meltdown call is finally going to pay off again after 14 years- only to watch Spoos close green on the day.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Wow. JP Morgan paying $290 million to prevent Jamie Dimon & other executives from testifying about why JPM enabled, for decades, a trafficking, blackmail, & kompromat ring run by a college dropout con man. Not the sort of thing you do when your hands are actually clean.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

Raytheon out there bragging it’s going to issue debt at 6.25-6.75% to buy back stock yielding 3.0%. I know execs want to get their bonuses but c’mon man…

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

Haven’t these people heard of T-Bills?

Sonali Basak

@sonalibasak

2 years

*ROKU: 26% OF TOTAL CASH, CASH EQUIVALENTS HELD WITH SVB

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

It’s nice to see both parties tell their respective lunatic fringes to take a hike and form a centrist coalition to get something done that the rest of America is wants. One wishes we could see this more often.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

PSA: Before you send out that tweet about how fixed income mark-to-market is going to destroy pensions & life insurers just like Silicon Valley Bank, please take a moment to think about the nature of pension & insurance liabilities. And then delete your tweet. Thank you.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

2 years

With ex-food/energy/shelter “super core” inflation down to 3.7% YoY and 2.4% annualized on a 6 month run rate, I really don’t know why the Fed continues to talk about inflation. No need to wait for the entirely predictable OER collapse in 2 months to declare victory.

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Will Slaughter

@BamaBonds

1 year

The Fed has managed to swerve from pretending it doesn’t have an inflation problem to pretending it does have one.

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