Tom Hayes Profile
Tom Hayes

@BEERG

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Irish. Lives in France. European labour relations consultant. Writes weekly notes on the world of work, Brexit, and politics - Sunday Scribblings.

France
Joined April 2009
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@BEERG
Tom Hayes
3 years
No comment needed
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Reading Patel's comments at the presser, it is clear that what is intended is that people sent to Rwanda will not be "processed" for UK entry but will be expected to settle there permanently. It is deportation, not off-shore processing.
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Tom Hayes
4 years
The Brexiteers got a "free-ride" for the past 4 years because the realities of Brexit never hit. It looked like the UK had left the EU but everything stayed the same. Well, "phony Brexit" is over. "Real Brexit" is here. And the worst is yet to come. We've only just begun.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
There is a major "anti-growth coalition" in the Commons. It is called the ERG. It opposes the single move that could boost growth at a stroke. The UK rejoining the EU Single Market and Customs Union.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Here's a prediction. The Tory leadership race is over. Truss has it. Sunak will withdraw within the next week. Either he will do a deal with Truss on a cabinet position or he will pack his bags, quit politics and head back to the US. He will not want to be humiliated in the vote.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
@afneil Decode: I'm a lazy bastard, so I believe everyone else is as well. I am making a judgement about the world of work based on my own inability to do any work.
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Tom Hayes
4 years
Johnson to the BBC: “They’ve done a deal with Canada — long way away — of a kind that we want, why shouldn’t they do it with us, we’re so near, we’ve been members for 45 years.” Just look at that comment and think about it. And then think about it again.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Watching French TV. Macron's people handing out EU flags to supporters in anticipation of victory. It will be a victory for Europe. A victory for anti-Putinists. Emotional. Time for us European to go on the front foot. It is not a perfect union. But for now, the best we have.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
I have always thought that it is the "small things" that will see support for Brexit crumble. Long waits at airports; refused permission to travel with your dog because the dog no longer has a "passport"; roaming charges; unexpected medical bills; and the rest. Covid delayed it.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
On Jan 8, 2018, Farage met with Barnier in Brussels. As the meeting ended, Barnier asked him what he saw as the future UK/EU relationship. He replied, "After Brexit, the EU will no longer exist." He was not the only Brexiter to think that. Not the only thing they got wrong.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
A Brexit question. I have seen plenty of reports of UK businesses losing markets in the EU because of Brexit. Has anyone ever come across a business which said: "thanks to all the new barriers to trade with the EU and all the extra paperwork, we have grown our EU business?"
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Tom Hayes
6 months
These rules do not apply to EU citizens. They only apply to people from non-EU countries. You voted to leave the EU. What did you expect would happen?
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Tom Hayes
2 years
I have now read the Frost piece a second time. I knew there was something missing. Could not quite figure it. Then it hit me. Not a word of explanation why he cut and run from government when he was in the box seat on Brexit. he can talk the talk, but can't walk the walk.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
I see that the latest Brexiteer "line to take" is that a trade deal with the US was never really that important anyway. Which explains why they went dolally when Obama told them about the back of the queue. With each passing day, they have less and less to show. No benefits.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
What really upsets you is the realisation that despite all you talk about “equals” you were the lesser part in the negotiations and that did not sit well with Britain’s imperial DNA.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
It is not rocket science. Why, after Brexit, would EU workers want to come to the UK to be workers with "second-class" rights when they can stay in the EU and have "first-class" rights?
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Tom Hayes
2 years
If Johnson believes that he is right to equate the EU with Putin's Russia then under no circumstances should he be invited to the EU Council meeting next week. He has crossed a line.
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Tom Hayes
4 years
A sad week for all Europeans, the week the UK confirmed beyond doubt that as and from 1/1/2021 it will rebuild a border between it and the European mainland. Even sadder to see, the delight some took in this. When the consequences become clear, the delight will fade.
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Tom Hayes
10 months
Why is there "fury" over the EU respecting and implementing the Brexit deal that Johnson and Frost negotiated?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Some thoughts on the "vaccine wars" and Brexit. I have followed politics across Europe and the US since the 1960s. You learn quickly to differentiate between the "thunder of the now" - short-term sound and fury - and what matters in the long-term.
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Tom Hayes
6 months
It is not French or European law that is causing Brits these problems. It is Brexit and the ending of Freedom of Movement, which is what the UK voted for in 2016
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Tom Hayes
3 years
This article cannot bring itself to say it - after all, it is the Telegraph - but what it is trying to say is that Brexit sold out the City. And there is no way back.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
The NI Unionists increasingly remind me of the Afrikaners in the dying days of apartheid. Almost alone against the world, except for some friends in a right-wing Tory gov in London.
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Tom Hayes
7 months
Why "fury"? Did the UK not support these measures which apply to third-country nationals when it was an EU member? The UK by its own choice is now a third country. What's the problem with applying a law you voted for?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Cattle, horses, mussels, models and bankers all being hit by new Brexit barriers. By the day, it becomes clearer that UK gov ministers and their Brexit advisors, such as Lord Frost, had no real understanding of what leaving the CU/SM would really mean. Brexit bill now coming due
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Tom Hayes
2 years
More from Frost: "My negotiating team was treated brutally as the supplicant representatives of a renegade province, culminating in us being shut in the meeting room in the Berlaymont until 2am on the final night of talks".
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Tom Hayes
6 months
A question. British TV is full of programmes about a "new home in the sun", a "chateau in France", and "rebuilding in Italy". Are there programmes on European TV about "escaping to Britain"? If not, I wonder why.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
It would appear that "freeports" should now be understood as ports free of exports as most countries will not accept their tax-free goods. Another Brexit promise bites the dust.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Shut up in a room until 2am? Were they without food and water? Clearly, you have never been involved in an all-night labour relations negotiations. Did the EU threaten to send gunboats up the Thames to blow London out of the water if you didn't agree to the deal?
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Tom Hayes
4 years
The Brexiteers got a free ride from 2016 until now because the devastating impacts of Brexit were all invisible. Now the visible impacts are hitting like a hurricane. And what negotiating leverage does the UK have?
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Tom Hayes
4 years
I have read Gove's speech. As a UK outsider may I make 2 observations. (1) He invokes FDR. Not a mention that at the heart of FDR's project was the promotion of unions and collective bargaining to ensure wage growth and the sharing of economic prosperity. I wonder why?
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Tom Hayes
5 years
The level of delusion displayed in this article is staggering, on so many levels. Apparently, where the UK has ended up on Brexit is all down to Barnier. It should have been so simple. Just give the UK what it wanted. Not looking good for the next round.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
As @chrisgreybrexit has often observed, Brexit is a slow puncture. You know something is wrong with the car but you can't quite put your finger on it. Dover/Eurostar last weekend was different. It was a blowout. Can't be ignored. And the Brexiteers cannot lie their way out of it.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Northern Ireland Unionists are losing, and they know it. If they had any sense they would campaign for the UK to rejoin the Single Market and Customs Union. Then the sea border would disappear. The UK will do it eventually. But by then NI Unionism will be irrelevant.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Interestingly, all the business voices quoted in this piece complaining about the "Frost approach" to the EU are British. It is British businesses that Frost is wrecking, not European.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Strange. Germany's per capita exports are almost twice those of the UK. Germany must have left the EU a long time ago to turn in such a performance. Germany did leave the EU, did it not? What! it is still a member?
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Tom Hayes
1 year
Always worth pointing out that the DUP is not the government of Northern Ireland. They are a minority party, which greatly resents that they are no longer the majority party.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Only one thing is certain. Every week the Daily Telegraph will carry at least three articles predicting the imminent implosion of the EU. Some things will never change.
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Tom Hayes
5 years
I see that Brexiteers still believe that (1) the EU is about to implode and (2) the UK holds all the cards and (3) "Magic Johnson" will deliver the UK to the sunny uplands. Nothing changes.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
When did any rational country seek to improve its economic performance by making it incredibly more difficult to trade with its biggest market by far? Brexit is a "business buster". Great piece by @pmdfoster
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"An arrogant, aloof, wordy, pro-EU centrist drawn from the same narrow elite that has dominated the country for decades". More wordy than the arrogant aloof Boris Johnson, drawn from the same narrow elite that has dominated the UK for centuries?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"President Barnier would surely be a disaster for the UK. Why? Because he was the man responsible, on the EU side, for negotiating Britain's departure from the bloc". The UK was not expelled from the EU. Barnier was responsible for protecting the EU's interests as the UK walked.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Truss in Belfast. "How many more times must I pose before Vogue comes calling? I am so much better than that Scottish attention seeker. I'd knock spots off her. They could headline me as "The Dame that Delivers".
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Tom Hayes
2 years
The way Lloyd George did in the 1921 Irish treaty negotiations when he said he would send gunboats up the Liffey?
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Tom Hayes
2 years
"Whitehall sources also say that Rees-Mogg will move to scrap the working-time directive in the UK that brought in the 48-hour working week." This is a key law for the EU. Scrap it and calls to end the TCA will be loud on level-playing field grounds
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Tom Hayes
3 years
2 points: 1. If Frost believes that the NI Protocol is inoperable then it just underscores how incompetent he was when he negotiated it. 2. It also underscores how incompetent Johnson was when he signed it. They always had an alternative - "no deal".
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Tom Hayes
4 years
“The problem with this government is that it is led by journalists,” says one senior official. Not true. It is even worse than that. It is led by columnists. Journalists deal in fact. Columnists in opinions. A government of Oxbridge, columnist rhetoric.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Frost is gone. Allegedly, because, ideologically, he no longer agreed with the government’s political direction of travel. But he was not appointed to the Lords and then to gov to craft a political philosophy. He had one job. Brexit.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
The argument advanced today that the UK is not a "union" but a unitary state that parts, such as Scotland, cannot leave seems to me to be undermined by the fact that Ireland, which was once a part of the United Kingdom, left.
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Tom Hayes
4 years
Brexit means borders and borders need permission to be crossed - whether people, goods, services or data. Permission costs and comes with consequences. The Brexit fiction always was that the UK could build borders at no cost and with no consequences. We'll see on 1/1/2021.
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Tom Hayes
4 years
Over recent weeks London has been calling on EU leaders to get involved in the Brexit negotiations, to sideline Barnier, seen as an obstacle to a deal. Yesterday, the EU 27 did get involved. They turned out to be even more hardline than Barnier. Be careful what you wish for.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Reading around the WA/NIP over the past day or so it seems clear to me that: 1. Johnson/Frost always knew exactly what the NIP involved. 2. But because it was wrapped up in the overall WA they had no option but to sign to "Get Brexit Done".
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Tom Hayes
2 years
@simon_schama @adamboultonTABB The son of immigrants appoints the daughter of immigrants to stop immigrants from coming to the UK.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Barnier/Macron: "Apart from the fact he (Barnier) is older, his hair is greyer, and his wife is slightly younger, it is quite hard to tell the difference between them". You can tell the difference. Barnier is a Gaullist. Macron is not. Your sexist comment is disgusting.
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Tom Hayes
27 days
What happens when the French army, navy and airforce show up and stop this happening? Just asking as someone who lives not far from a French beach.
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Tom Hayes
1 year
I was asked recently why I did not write about "Brexit" anymore. My answer: Because Brexit is done. The UK is no longer a member of the EU. But...came the reply. So, here are my thoughts on how I see things. I'm not sure they'll please anyone.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
I generally don't Tweet on issues outside Brexit. On Ukraine I will make an exception. I believe what we are seeing is the citizens in one European country after another forcing their politicians to get off the fence and be more robust in assisting Ukraine. Rightly so.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
@StevePeers There are no "advantages left for Ireland in the EU" except as the prime English-speaking base for all those multinationals who want to trade and sell into the Single Market. When we Irish see the shambles that is Brexit we are double-jabbed against following the UK out.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"Johnson called on Macron yesterday to close France’s border with Belgium, where seven in ten Channel migrants cross on their journey to Britain." Close an intra-EU border to facilitate the UK? Delusional. That border is crossed by 1,000s daily.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
But Brexit problems will not go away. They are here to stay. Issues over vaccine availability are not going to make structural border barriers over fish and pork and the rest suddenly disappear. When the vaccine tide goes out, the nakedness of Brexit will again become clear.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
This is a complete delusion. There are no circumstances in which the EU will agree to a "Swiss" deal with the UK. The EU does not like the "Swiss" deal it has with the Swiss! The piece also has the smell of "German car makers" - businesses will demand it.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
If the incoming CEO of a major multinational said: "My predecessor was wrong to withdraw from our biggest market. It has hit us hard. But I am not going to reengage with that market because it would upset a minority of our shareholders." He would not last long. That's Labour.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"All through those years, he delivered ... lectures about ‘cherry-picking’ and the ‘integrity’ of the single market, oblivious to the fact that both sides would have to work out a way of getting along somehow once we had left". No. He set out what your Brexit red lines meant.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"And he is completely locked into the Northern Ireland protocol he negotiated, even though it is clearly unworkable, and will have to be reformed at some stage". Do you mean the Northern Ireland Protocol that Boris Johnson signed and hailed as part of his “Oven ready deal”?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
I have now had a chance to read Forst's Command Paper. A fundamentally dishonest document, built on a myth of victimhood. "We were forced to sign the Protocol to get Brexit done". It also neglects the fact that NI voted against Brexit. The DUP is not NI.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Well, this did not take long, much as we predicted yesterday: "Brussels has warned that it will sever a data-sharing agreement with the UK if London’s attempts to rewrite its internet laws are found to pose a threat to EU citizens’ privacy."
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Tom Hayes
4 years
As an outsider, it looks to me as if the UK government with its defence of Cummings has just ended lockdown. Lockdown and the rest depend on public acceptance and adherence. And the police. The moral backing for lockdown has just disappeared.
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Tom Hayes
2 months
Halfway through Tim Shipman's third Brexit book. A fourth to come. They could all have been reduced to one sentence. "The Brits did not have a fucking clue what they were doing." All the rest is just padding.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
" ... Barnier is now committed to that deal. He made it clear that the UK had to be seen to have ‘suffered’ from leaving the EU". Read his book. He was at pains to make it clear that the EU was not interested in “punishing the UK. It was the UK that decided to punish itself.
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Tom Hayes
4 years
I would like you all to know that today I have informed my bank manager we have taken power to override clauses in our recent loan agreement because we now realise that they infringe our "domestic sovereignty". We will now unilaterally decide on payment terms. She is not pleased.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"His personal political credibility is tied up in the agreement being stuck to rather than renegotiated, and in the UK suffering as much damage as possible". Any damage the UK is suffering is a result of UK choices. Stop blaming others for your own stupidity.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Brexiteers might wish that the UK was in the Pacific but, unfortunately for them, it is in the Atlantic, 50K from the European mainland. While Brexiteers continue to obsess about the EU and wish it ill, 99% of Europeans think little about the UK, just shrug at its mention.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Iain Martin writes: "Forget Brexit and build bridges with Europe", through culture, media, universities and bilateral political ties. Good idea, except for one thing. A great deal of such European activities is organised through and funded by, the EU.
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Tom Hayes
6 months
I keep reading pieces about how easy it will be for Starmer to rock up in Brussels and reset relationships. The writers still write as if the UK was inside the EU. It is not. It is a "third country". Outside. That changes everything. Someday, that euro will drop.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Have a read of this report from @UKandEU - or even just dip into it - and then ask yourself: Why would any country want to impose such unnecessary burdens on its manufacturing sector? For what benefits? It is beyond bonkers.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"Macron is hardly popular". Check the polling data. Unless you believe everything you read in the D Telegraph. On, wait, You write most of that rubbish.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Explain to me again how the Protocol is hurting Northern Ireland?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"In the end, his hardline stance meant both sides ended up with a far worse deal than was necessary and an atmosphere of mutual mistrust and suspicion that will take years, if not decades, to repair". It was not “his stance”. It was the stance of the leaders of the EU 27.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Reading this by Iain Dunt the question occurs to me that if UK HGV training diverges from EU standards will UK drivers be allowed to drive on EU roads?
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Tom Hayes
5 years
It seems to me that many on the UK side completely underestimate what leaving the EU actually means. They seem to think it is just a matter of negotiating ex-member terms, similar to membership terms but without the obligations. Reality beckons.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"Asked if she could see Britain rejoining the EU or single market in the next 50 years, she replied: “No, I can’t see those circumstances.”" I suspect that these are red lines Labour may come to regret.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
Remind me of those unions which backed Brexit because EU membership was not good for workers?
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Tom Hayes
1 month
I see posts about the Brexit vote 8 years ago. It is over. The UK is out of the EU. You made a bad choice. Now, decide what you want for the future. That is not a question for the EU. This is now an internal British political issue. We in the EU have other things to do.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
According to James Forsyth in the Times "Covid is unlikely to transform the way we live" and cities will soon return to their old selves. He is wrong. Every major multinational I work with is planning for hybrid working, a mix of remote and office work.
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Tom Hayes
2 years
I see Lord Frost is again calling for the scrapping of the NI Protocol. In the final chapter of my book on Brexit, I discuss the circumstances in which the WA was agreed and signed - no one forced Johnson and Frost to do so. They did it freely.
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Tom Hayes
3 years
"With President Barnier, if that is what happens, there will be no chance of that — and relations between the two sides will just get worse and worse". All as a result of UK decisions. Again, get real. Oh, and it will be Macron.
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Tom Hayes
3 months
What a stupid response from the Labour Party - and I am of that tribe. The correct response is: "When we are in gov we will see what the EU is proposing and we will seek to negotiate a deal that is in the best interests of young British people."
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Correct me if I am wrong, but did the people of Holyhead not vote for Brexit? It has been obvious that Irish traffic would start going direct to France etc. What did they think was going to happen?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
Can someone remind me? Who is David Frost and when was he elected by the British public to any office? Isn't he just an unelected Brexit Bureaucrat?
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Tom Hayes
3 years
So, this is Michael Gove's letter to the EU over the NI Protocol. Now, I have to say this reads like something written by a newspaper columnist, rather than a serious negotiator. Something to generate an immediate headline. "Gove gets tough with EU"
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Tom Hayes
3 years
@JMPSimor I live in France. Irish. Heading to Spain on Sunday. Got a Covid test yesterday. No cost. Medical team also updated my Covid cert so that it is now scannable. Test centre working like clockwork. After a slow start, France powering ahead.
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Tom Hayes
5 years
@DavidDavisMP @DominicRaab If only David Davis had been in charge of the Brexit negotiations... what a waste... why was he never given the chance....
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Tom Hayes
3 years
The reality is this. The UK has left the EU. It will not be rejoining anytime soon. Despite what Brexiteers would like, the EU is not going to implode or disappear. It will continue to evolve as the idealistic, but deeply flawed, economic and political construct that it is.
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Tom Hayes
1 year
According to Brexiters, we Irish "should know our place". We do.
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