Aurelius @Aureliusltd28 Twitter profile

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

9 hours

if you like my bank content, give this a read. 🙏🙏🙏

Victaurs

@victaurs

9 hours

An update to the $COOP / $RKT thesis.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

Assuming another 10% down the $SPY will still be up 10% in the last year and 20% over the past 2 years and people will be screaming for the Fed to cut. This is what a QE addicted market looks like.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

@RyanAFournier Reno 911 is peak humor.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@barstoolsports Salty vets can’t see that CC is the best player.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

European banks trade at astoundingly low P/E multiples, but then again you watch the Paris Olympics opening ceremony and you kind of realize why.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@PicturesFoIder Let the man make his hot dog straw in peace!

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

1 month

$JPM ... basically telling you all that buying banks at north of 200% of TBV is almost never a good idea.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Dimon has a quote about banking. “Don’t do anything stupid, and don’t waste money. Let everyone else waste money and do stupid things, and then we’ll buy them” And the guy just continually does it. $NYCB having to sell some of Flagstar’s crown jewels to $JPM to patch up

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@DudespostingWs Almost covered the crypto L 😂😂

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

They cut the slices of pizza like this at $COST and banks like $SIVB will literally eyeball whether or not to hedge billions of interest rate risk.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@HumansNoContext @ShooterMcGavin_

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

Where’s that homie selling vol and making 5% a week forever?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@rohindhar It’s a thousand degrees and 95% humidity in the summer.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

To those of you that haven’t invested in banks, we are currently in the “it’s so over” phase. H/t BofA

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@marketplunger1 LOL he's the GOAT for a reason. Isn't it funny how the richest don't talk about how much money? How the wisest don't use lots of words?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

28 days

I say this all the time (because it is true) but Jamie Dimon has the ultimate quote about banking. It goes something like this ... "Don't waste money and don't do anything stupid. Let everyone else waste money and do stupid things, then we'll buy them". Amazing innit?

Jevgenijs Kazanins

@jevgenijs

28 days

Whoaaa!!! “JPMorgan Chase $JPM is talking with Apple about taking over the tech company’s credit-card program.”

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

By popular request …

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

There are 3 main ways to “win” in bank investing. Well maybe 4 … a thread …

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

I bet Ernie Garcia at $CVNA is going to have a sick yacht.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Let’s play a game and assume there are $17T in bank deposits. And let’s pretend total Cost of Deposits is 3% (it’s lower) and the average life of bank deposits is 3 years (it’s longer). With FF @ 5.5% then the unrealized GAINS on bank deposits are roughly …. $1.313 trillion

Steven Kelly

@StevenKelly49

5 months

Unrealized securities losses in the banking system ticked back up in Q1 — to $517 billion:

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@zerohedge Gaslighting everyone.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

This is a very bad print for the CRE doomers trolling the internet. $3.2b sold at an 8 point loss hardly feels like the melt down they’re all hoping for.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

You know what's bull$hit? That the SEC let the VC boys in California tweet a bank run into existence, cause $SIVB to fail, and still haven't brought a single charge.

*Walter Bloomberg

@DeItaone

3 months

SEC SUES ANDREW LEFT AND CITRON CAPITAL OVER STOCK SHORT SALES

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

So let me get this straight .... In a deeply philosophical paper, the Fed takes the time for three (likely great humans) with $200k to $400k salaries and MBAs + CFAs to write a paper on "Facing Bank Runs in Real Time". And the point of the article is to inform us on the reasons

NY Fed Research

@NYFedResearch

5 months

Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time By Marco Cipriani, Thomas M. Eisenbach, and Anna Kovner >>>

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@BBCBreaking Probably consolidates his voter base even more.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

Pretty cool graphic for those newer to banks and understanding big bank revenue drivers.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

FYI absent another bank failure/deposit run, the liquidity situation at banks is curing & regionals are actually dropping rates. Which doesn't happen if you were worried about liquidity despite H4L. h/t GS

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

I have to say, I didn’t have UK Banks outperforming the Mag7 and the GRANOLAS on my bingo card.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@NUCLRGOLF @JasonRileyWDRB Guy for sure had money on Xander.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

Builders broke from reality a while ago

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Pro tip: you will go infinitely farther in life when you drop antagonistic energy and instead operate with an open mind and gratitude in your heart.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

I will be explicit. I do believe Community Banks are useful. They are the life blood of the small business lending. Small businesses are about 46% of private sector employment. Retweet this if you agree.

Hydros 🫧

@HydrosMarkets

2 months

@Aureliusltd28 Having thousands of banks is a uniquely US phenomenon. Community banks are becoming more and more useless as digital banking expands. This is not the end of a fair game, it’s a healthy economic development.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@BrianRoemmele This picture would take a year to watch with the same camera 🤯🤯🤯

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

A reminder that $SCHW is paying almost 500bps below other brokerages on sweep cash.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

$OZK bears wake up to some CRE news …

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@InternetH0F What did the five fingers say to the face?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

Bank thoughts, but really applies to all companies.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

The correlation between ROE & P/BV continues. Which sector do you feel like is undervalued rn?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

They said the BTFP expiry would cause mass bank failures. They said $NYCB was a donut. They said a CRE credit crash was coming. They said the next liquidity crisis was here. 😂😂😂

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

Shrewd bank investors will get it …

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

The catch up in banks has been impressive over the last year. And yet no one is getting FOMO, because only the insane people invest in banks.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

Large cap banks have on average 1.7% of loans in office CRE and are reserved at 8.5%. Hard to see how this creates anything more than pockets of problems. Anyone disagree? Bueller ...

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@NUCLRGOLF Probably don't want to miss there.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

3 Predictions for Bank Earnings: - Banks "beat" beaten down projections on NIM/NII and miss on loan growth. Expenses & non-interest income flat-ish. IB/CM types pump the return to ECM/DCM & M&A activity (with some Trump boom fantasies sprinkled in calls). Credit remains benign

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

Regionals = still cheap Money centers = fairly valued Growth banks = still cheap Small caps = still cheap

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@LakeShowYo He didn’t control it. Knew Metta World Peace would’ve have thrown down. 😂😂

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

@InternetH0F

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

Unlocked this write up on $WAL. A unique bank that was left for dead in March, has cleaned up its risks while others have been scared to act, and has a great growth run ahead of it in a sector that’s stuck in the mud.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

This is as weedy as it gets for bank people. Bookmark this for when you have time. h/t MS $NYCB obviously pops for what we now know to be MF. $OZK still chugging along because C&D is behaving. $BAC $C $JPM $GS with no CRE worries. $KRE banks mostly diversified.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

What a place this X ...

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

Some gratitude to all my X friends. I joined this thing a little over a year ago and didn't expect much. I've interacted with someone genuinely fantastic humans, have learned a lot, & am grateful for the community. thank you. if you ever want to talk fins or markets hmu.🙏🙏🙏

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

Thoughts on a few winners and losers of the quarter in banks ...

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

You really only need to the Q&A sections of earnings calls.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

Does anyone SERIOUSLY believe that long rates (5-15 year) are going materially below 4% anytime soon?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

Ding ding ding. 🛎️ In bank land they say, “we’ve had a one off credit event”. What else are the red flags?

LongVol

@_LongVol

2 months

You'll never hear a CEO/CFO on an earnings call say their business is in trouble, the key is reading between the lines.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

I’m not going to name names, but it’s funny when bank executives teams saddled by gigantic bond portfolio losses and diarrhea diapers of ‘24 budgets blown up by betting on 6 rate cuts lecture me on fixed income and the outlook for interest rates. Yes please. Tell me more about

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

Bonus: comb through small/mid caps that have track records of: TSR, EPS, Rev, TBV growth but that no one pays attention to because they’re too illiquid & small. Accumulate positions and watch them compound over time. Eventually people start to pay attention and multiple expands.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@zerohedge Big Mike?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

9 months

$META out here up 157% this year with 40% operating margins and I spend time debating NIM with bank stock guys. Wtf am I doing. Jk I love all of you. 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙈🙈🙈

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

1 month

Note to self: find banks with "hidden" TBV coming back to them. @victaurs PS - I miss the $SCHW and $BAC failure doomers🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

How am I just learning about this bank? Crazy Woman Creek Bancorp ticker $CRZY

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

I recommend all bank investors buy crypto. Not because it’s some big brain hedge for the monetary system. But because once you feel regular yet sporadic 20% draw downs, it makes $KRE days like today seem like a breeze. Follow me for more investing tips.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

It's amazing how Jamie Dimon said "our stock is too expensive to buyback" and he sold for the first time in 18 years almost literally at the peak multiple.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

1 month

Hey. Thank you to all 5200 friends on here (but not the bots). I appreciate you all. Didn’t think this account would grow but here we are. Maybe we get to 10k one day. Until then, we keep learning and growing. 💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼🚀🚀🚀

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

Bank CRE doomers I’m sorry, you’re tremendously early on your “the world is melting down” commentary.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Plot twist: SEC looks at $UPST AI and realizes it’s just been FICO all along.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

1 month

$KEY

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

To my friends/followers … Bank doom Twitter is entering the “we are so back” phase. Let the boys know.

The Coastal Journal

@1CoastalJournal

6 months

🚨BANKING CRISIS 🚨 Not only are regional banks continue their orderly selling BIG Banks are selling off drastically after a TERRIBLE Earnings report. #banks $JPM -5.5%

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

10 months

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 years

@buccocapital The OGs know the only real finance movie …

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

CRE transaction data doesn’t scream melt down. Sorry bears. 🐻 🐻🐻

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

If you think US banks are cheap …

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

About a month ago the market started pricing in a Trump win. Since then, the market winners have been: - $GEO (private prison/illegal immigration crackdown) - $PIPR (M&A specialty shops) - $KRE (regional banks) - $FNMA (privatization of mortgage giant) - $IWM (small caps & high

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

9 months

$NYCB short thread ... (not financial advice)

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

This thread is an example of why Twitter is valuable … banks a small universe, but a layperson can learn more about bank investing & capital stacks in a random thread than in an MBA/CFA class.

Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Bank valuations are fair at best. Returns were made by buying when the doomers said $BAC would fail. Generating alpha now requires the ability to read a balance sheet and understand who is fundamentally cheap.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

@espn “Take the fall”

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

There is no joy in Bank Doomville, for the Mighty CRE bust hast struck out.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

There are barely any banks trading below 10x earnings. Most people can't buy it because it's too small, but $UBAB is a beast. @blondesnmoney you were so real for $NEWT and $CUBI and $NECB $CASH crazy that it's still "cheap" @wabuffo

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

Because they WILDLY overpay (in cash homie) due to not paying taxes & because the NCUA hasn’t figured out that it’s a bad idea to let an institution mark good will to capital (hi again S&L capital rules). Also because many CU exec comp agreements for CEOs pay mucho for TOP LINE

Jim Perry

@mi_jim

6 months

Why Credit Unions Are Buying Community Banks Faster Than Ever | @FinancialBrand

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

Feels like the right day to re-circulate this.

Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

10 months

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

1 month

@TomBevanRCP @ComfortablySmug It feels like the strategy is to ignore & gaslight.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

I love how CRE doomers are surprised & angry at loan mods. Like what do you expect a bunch of people with skin in the game to do?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

2 months

Name me a more untouchable name than $WBA

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

8 months

For bankers, the FDIC just said: - our big risk is we can’t manage our own human capital position - we’ve lost 10% of risk mgmt staff - our human capital issues caused delays/failures in risk assessments for $SBNY (and others) - but otherwise trust us we got this 🧐🧐🧐

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Euro banks: either earnings estimates are dead wrong or they’re cheap still.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

To everyone I engage with regularly on X, thank you. I appreciate each and every one of you. The best is ahead.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

4 months

Enjoy it while you can finance bros, AI is coming for you.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

For those of you short $ABR $TBBK or any other multi family lender, this was surprising to me. Appears CRE CLO DQs occurring in TN, NC, and SC.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

Munger had a quote about banking: "It’s not that damned easy to run a bank intelligently, there are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing." What are the wrong things?

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

Few thoughts on banks: - COF/NIM 🪗 is mostly a rear-view thing - For P/E to ⬆️ the YC must un-invert - For a 12x P/E we need > 50bps slope - M&A can't boom without long rates ⬇️50-100bps - A specific subset of CRE banks will struggle - Money centers & Community ROE > Regionals

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

To the bank boards saying they want to sell, but holding out for 175% of TBV, this is what a bank worth 175% of TBV looks like. Kudos $MCBC.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

5 months

Bank valuations are fair at best. Returns were made by buying when the doomers said $BAC would fail. Generating alpha now requires the ability to read a balance sheet and understand who is fundamentally cheap.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

This is some peak bank CRE nerd stuff. To the 5 of you who geek out on it like me, enjoy. Reserves for office and MF for select large caps.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

$NECB with another nice quarter. If you invest in banks (long or short) there is literally nowhere else, you can find this analysis. Has been valuable to me. I hope it will be valuable to you.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

Regional bank price is discounting: lower rates, more friendly Republican M&A czar, and lower taxes. Plus more benign credit environment. And no recession. And minimal political volatility going into an election. And if you don't understand what I'm saying by now ...

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

7 months

Was reminded by a ticker today when CEO ~ 2018 @ conference (many drinks in) whispers to me at bar … “I’m not giving inside info to buy our stock, but if I were you I’d buy the stock” …. weeks later fcking rug pull down 20% … didn’t buy, never took serious again, unreal 🤣🤣

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

9 days

start a credit union and you too can be like “golden one” such a noble name … charge your members $24mm in overdraft fees in a year. do not pay taxes on those fees. now funnel $6mm of that into naming rights for a stadium in attempts to find new members to profit from. id

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

6 months

If you’re looking for a bank follow. Follow me. Hard hitting and unbelievably obvious math. In honor of $FRBK from 10/23/23. Also around the day I first bought $C too.

Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

1 year

This is not enough, obviously. And it’s not enough to inspire confidence to raise enough to plug the gaping hole. When you have negative TCE and $6B in assets you need way more than a couple hundred million.

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Aurelius

@Aureliusltd28

3 months

For those of you not paying attention in the bank space. Implicit or explicit regulatory discussions are driving decision making in the banks with too much CRE - low T1 - CET1 - RBC. It is becoming more likely we see depressed profitability than an outright CRE bubble crisis.

Paul Davis

@The_Bank_Slate

3 months

BCB Bancorp $BCBP reported lower quarterly earnings after agreeing to sell a pool of CRE and multifamily loans at a $4.6 million pretax loss.

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