Alex Almeida @AlexAlmeida2020 Twitter profile

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

This reminds me of those shots of Me-262s being put together by hand at underground factories in Thuringia in 1945 while US industry was churning out hundreds of P-51s at these huge assembly plants in California and Texas.

Alex Hollings

@AlexHollings52

2 years

This comparison of the Su-57 production line versus the F-35 production line really sums up the most important difference between these aircraft. One is the most technologically advanced fighter in the world. The other is practically artisanal.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

US drone airstrike kills elderly conspiracy podcaster.

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

@CalibreObscura

2 years

Rumour has it they took out Zawahiri because his 500 minute mumble videos just got too much

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

9 months

The first phase of the campaign will involve US officials talking about it interminably and in such excruciating detail that the Iranians start offing themselves just to make it stop.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

9 months

“U.S. retaliatory attacks against Iran-backed militants will be a “campaign” that could last “weeks,” officials told NBC News. The targets are expected to include Iranian targets outside Iran, and the campaign will involve both strikes & cyber operations”

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

I suspect part of the reason for the all the playacting with Vostok, the tank biathlon, etc is that the Kremlin's conception of Russia as a great power demands that it be capable of fighting a limited imperial war with a peacetime military like the US did in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Alexander Clarkson 

@APHClarkson

2 years

When Russian military bloggers realise that the reserves needed to hold Izyum are currently near the Chinese border for the annual Vostok exercise

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

This looks absolutely insane. Like 1941 Eastern Front insane.

Daily News Egypt

@DailyNewsEgypt

3 years

#Tigray forces release a video of #Ethiopia ’s army alleged prisoners of war. This comes as the #Ethiopian Prime Minister vowed to join the army on the frontline.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

The amount of ordnance Hamas brought in, particularly the large numbers of EFPs/landmines, suggests the theory this was a "catastrophic success" is probably off the mark. Points to a deliberate effort to mount at least a semi-sustained defense against responding Israeli forces.

Moshe Schwartz

@YWNReporter

1 year

Massive cache of weapons Hamas brought into Israel collected by the IDF.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

It does look like Ukraine has vindicated the tactical ATGM buggy concept.

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

@CalibreObscura

3 years

Ukrainian SOF firing a buggy-mounted 9M111 Fagot ATGM

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

. @AbraxasSpa is one the rare folks on here who got right the post-2014 transformation of the Ukrainian military - and particularly its SOF - into a highly professional, night-capable light infantry force at the leading edge of battlefield tactical innovation.

Abraxas Spa

@AbraxasSpa

3 years

@JimmySecUK Saying this without any doubt, night fighting capability order: 🇺🇸 > 🇺🇦 > 🇬🇧/🇪🇺 >... > 🇿🇼 > 🇷🇺

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

Some really bizarre thinking from the folks quoted here. The “Global South” does not exist. It’s a confected ideological construct of decoloooonizer academic types. Argentina is not Cameroon is not Thailand.

Franz-Stefan Gady

@HoansSolo

1 year

“We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South,” said one senior G7 diplomat. “All the work we have done with the Global South [over Ukraine] has been lost . . . Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won’t ever listen to us again.”

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Jesus what a shot. Doesn't get more symbolic than this.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

This has been talked about for over two decades, but it does seem that the diffusion of organic capability enhancers (including lightweight, man-portable loitering munitions not mentioned here) to mobile light infantry forces

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

The most important skill you can learn on Twitter is to develop good instincts for who is worth listening to outside your narrow area of expertise. If you can develop that fingertip feel this place can be an amazing resource, but by god you have to be capable of doing that.

Ukraine Memes for NATO Teens

@LivFaustDieJung

1 year

This is not a "we disagree analytically" this is "liars should always be called out, regardless of whether they support Ukraine of not". Fucking Igor Strelkov is a more honest actor than Thomas. Internet clout is a hell of a drug & he's gotten used to an audience that loves his

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

I love this so much.

🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker

@UAWeapons

2 years

#Ukraine : Apparently, we were right in asserting that Ukraine is receiving Iranian weapons seized from the Houthis by the United States - here we see a pristine Iranian mortar in the hands of the Ukrainian army.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

I want to hear the story of this lone Slovakian SOF guy.

Jennifer Griffin

@JenGriffinFNC

3 years

- 1 NATO staffer - 12 NYT employees (afghans somehow affiliated with NyT) - 1 LA Times - 1 Slovakian SOF At 0500, MG Donahue went into the exfill evolution, but according to those involved in operation, he was prepared to take any American who got to Gate up until last C17.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The fully motorized Coalition forces in Desert Storm & OIF didn’t advance significantly faster than the foot infantry & horse-dependent Wehrmacht in the roughly comparable invasion of Yugoslavia in 1941. Ditto for the invasion of Poland in 1939 & now Ukraine.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The more interesting underlying point here is that rates of advance by a first-class military against a weaker enemy force haven’t accelerated appreciably in 80+ years despite comprehensive mech/motorization.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

@CalibreObscura

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

This should put paid to the comforting and fashionable notion that military incompetence and intelligence failures are a unique trait of Russian organizational culture that sets them apart from Western armed forces. It can - and will - happen to anyone.

Stilicho

@StilichoReads

1 year

Hamas appears to have wiped out a detachment of ~20 Israeli Air Force special operations forces when they were helicoptered in to stop an attack on a Kibbutz.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

If this is accurate… wow. In retrospect it’s clear the destruction of the Hostomel airhead was *the* decisive point of the war that made any sort of rapid Russian victory impossible. The whole thing fell apart after that as the Russians just kept reinforcing a failed plan.

Michael Weiss

@michaeldweiss

3 years

"The CIA director provided a vital piece of intelligence that helped Ukraine significantly in the first days of the war: He warned that Russian forces planned to seize Antonov Airport in Hostomel... and use it to fly in troops for a push to take Kyiv."

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Some interesting shots of what looks like US SOF rolling through Ghayl ba Wazir in Hadramawt recently. Note the RWS-mounted Javelin launcher. H/t for the images to @summerahmeda

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

It’s notable how much US discourse on Ukraine is crudely personalized in terms “punishing” Putin instead of aligning ways/means to achieve a clear strategic objectives or end-state.

Pasi Rajala

@PasiRayala

3 years

Today’s Washington Post has a good editorial but what a silly headline. It’s about collective defense of two strong democracies. Not punishing anyone.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

Also fifteen tanks is a tiny offensive force, even in modern warfare. The Emiratis massed nearly twice that (a full battalion-sized combat group) for their armored breakout from Aden in 2015.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv has some incredible old skool vibes. Powerful slashing attack deep into the rear of the Izyum bulge by a tank-heavy kampfgruppe. Who said this type of warfare was dead?

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

24 days

Yeah, these people don't seem get that the decapitation strikes on leadership are the tip of a much broader targeting effort. The Israelis are systematically dismantling Hezbollah;s offensive strike capability, starting with their high-end SRBMs and ASCMs.

Danny Gold

@DGisSERIOUS

25 days

The last two weeks have actually been good for Hezbollah, you don’t get it. Thousands of fighters taken out, all comms destroyed, and the entire leadership wiped out in 10 days mean they’ll only get stronger. Just like what happened with the Tamil Tigers.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

What we call “forever wars” ie more or less continuous frontier warfare on the imperial periphery has been pretty much the norm for every great power going back to the Achaemenids. Only Americans thought they would be except or that this is somehow unfair.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

For all the talk about how Gaza is a more challenging urban combat environment, the absence of anti-armor EFPs or even deep-buried IEDs is notable compared to Mosul, Ramadi and other urban fights in Iraq. Will make things easier for the IDF.

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

@CalibreObscura

1 year

..barely observed anything heavier than a RPG-7 and RPK in use, very few PK/M etc. Even IEDs seem to be uncommon. I suspect that higher tier units (Say, Nukhba et al) are being held back for the dense urban battle. The same can also be said, it seems, for ATGM and SPG...

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

You need to throw out "On War" & quit obsessing over Clausewitz. You need to stop making bourbon & cigars your entire personality. You need to be reading Freytag-Loringhoven, Seeckt, Truppenfuhrung. You need to be continuously imbibing huge quantities of espresso & red wine.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Coming soon to an Iraqi milita near you.

Tal Inbar

@inbarspace

3 years

Better quality pictures of Iranian Shahed 136 attack drones.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

6 months

Worth reiterating this: ISIS is running a very active insurgency in Syria and its global network seems to have fully regenerated and is spinning off new external ops cells, but in Iraq they are pretty much finished.

Aaron Y. Zelin

@azelin

6 months

IS-Iraq continues to fade according to @JoelWing2 's data on locally reported attacks

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

Echoes of Paulus' thrust into the rear of the Izyum bulge during Operation Fredericus in late May 1942 following the failed Soviet push on Kharkov. And Soviet and Russian militaries were supposedly big on the systematic study & analysis military history.

Emil Kastehelmi

@emilkastehelmi

2 years

An attack towards Kupiansk and the main roads in the area would severely affect the logistical situation in occupied Izium and the nearby villages. With their defenses already in a weakened state, the last thing the Russians want is more problems with logistics. 3/4

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

A weapons system that has been used against Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Abqaiq & Khurais, Jizan, Abha, Khamis Mushait.

Yaroslav Trofimov

@yarotrof

2 years

Russia attacks Kyiv with a swarm of Iranian kamikaze drones, some of which manage to get through air defenses and hit the city center. Iran developing and perfecting with Russia a weapons system that could be used against Tel Aviv, Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

4 months

@GravitysRa1nbow No this is positively Mishima-esque, I admire him even more for it.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv has some incredible old skool vibes. Powerful slashing attack deep into the rear of the Izyum bulge by a tank-heavy kampfgruppe. Who said this type of warfare was dead?

Rob Lee

@RALee85

2 years

An account from a Russian Channel says that Ukraine massed a “powerful tank fist” with 15 tanks at Balakliya, which led to the breakthrough. They say Russian aviation couldn’t help in time because Ukraine saturated the area with air defenses.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Probably an indicator of how badly Russian offensive combat power in this axis was degraded during the first two weeks of the war. Also continued issues with theater-level operational coordination & Russian inability to rapidly shift forces between fronts.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

What I find most interesting is how the southern prong of the Donbas JFO envelopment has been stuck in place a bit south of Zaporizhizhia for over a week now.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

IMO France is one of few US allies that has a demonstrated competence at independent long-range expeditionary military operations plus the political will to assume the risks involved. DC shoots itself in the foot by invariably opting for compliance over capability & will.

Ryan Evans

@EvansRyan202

3 years

While it is true that Paris and its allies need to find a way to move forward together, this will be a much harder task if so many in DC, London, and Canberra continue to dismiss the causes of French anger as misplaced pride or histrionics

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

Goes to show that in the modern precision strike and ISR-saturated battlefield of exceptionally low force densities the side that can rapidly or covertly mass even a small offensive package can achieve a decisive advantage.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

Yeah this is on the right track. American gun culture and specifically the ease of access & fetishization of firearms is insane but it’s clear the primary driver of US gun violence are some very uniquely American social pathologies that just aren’t replicated in other countries.

FT Data

@ftdata

1 year

Collapsing social trust is driving American gun violence

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The laser-guided arty and disposable quadcopter UAV combo in action again. Short-range C-UAS defenses for mobile forces was identified as critical gap as far back as ISIS' “day of the drones”in Mosul in 2017 but Ukraine is just hammering that point home every day.

Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings |

@ChuckPfarrer

3 years

DONBAS: UKR artillery engages RU armored vehicles-- striking several with direct hits. This footage was likely shot from a small, commercially available drone. These platforms are nearly impossible to shoot down-- but highly effective in adjusting fire. RU convoys are now prey.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

10 months

We are talking about a 1991 Scud hunt type scenario in very tough terrain against an enemy force that’s spend the past seven years adapting to an intensive air campaign, learned to conceal & disperse its forces and supporting infrastructure to the lowest possible level, etc etc

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

10 months

Apart from having no sense of humor, the people tweeting at this with clips of F-35s are missing the point. Once the Houthi’s single operable F-5 is off the air, what is exactly is the plan for permanently suppressing their land-based naval strike complex?

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The more interesting underlying point here is that rates of advance by a first-class military against a weaker enemy force haven’t accelerated appreciably in 80+ years despite comprehensive mech/motorization.

The Bazaar of War

@bazaarofwar

3 years

Russia's advance has been extraordinarily rapid. For comparison's sake, here are same-scale maps of 48 hours into the US invasion of Iraq and @JulianRoepcke 's estimate after 36 hours in Ukraine. Anyone saying Russia is bogged down is nuts.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

What’s left of the insurgency is in a very weird place right now. ISIS cells are barely capable of defending their remaining sanctuary areas or keeping up a steady tempo of low-level harassing attacks but they’re still out there doing daylight complex ambushes. Quite bizarre.

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

@CalibreObscura

2 years

#Iraq : Some interestingly rare images of an ISIS attack against a claimed Federal Police patrol near al Khasha, S of Daquq, #Kirkuk . Seen using RPG-7 (with PG-7M pattern projectile), AK variants, M16A4, and a Croatian VHS-K bullpup- probably itself originally from the FedPol.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

6 months

@StilichoReads Clocking in German general staff at the peak of a continent-sized war type hours except instead of managing a military organization of millions you’re a junior associate. Seems amazingly counterproductive.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Danish Navy frigate newly-deployed to the Gulf of Guinea killed 4x pirates during an engagement with a pirate skiff. Another 5x taken into custody. Danes are not kidding around apparently.

Danish Frigate Esbern Snare stops pirates

The frigate Esbern Snare, which has been sent to the Gulf of Guinea to help secure the sea routes, has stopped pirates.

www.forsvaret.dk

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

BHL is in, it's over. Kiev will fall.

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

3 years

Hope the Kremlin realises that if it does not back down, NATO is prepared to deploy Bernard-Henri Levy to the alliance's eastern flank and, should it prove necessary, to move up the escalatory ladder of open shirt buttons.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Yes surveillance aircraft, drones and embedded SOF are very in-demand resources in the fight against climate change. Everyone would (rightly) have come down hard if it was some Trump flunky spouting bullshit like this - don't let them get away with it.

CasualtiesOfTheDay

@Ayei_Eloheichem

3 years

Pentagon: "Part of drawing down from Afghanistan... is giving us an opportunity to refocus our departmental efforts against other nation-state and...climate change... so it does help us free up resources... to focus on these other threats around the world."

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

11 months

Hamas resistance has been underwhelming from the first IDF armored probes into the northern strip. The Israelis might have this wrapped up in January. Turns out Gaza is not like Mosul.

Shaiel Ben-Ephraim

@academic_la

11 months

The IDF spokesperson says that the IDF has broken the main Hamas lines of defense in Khan Younis, forcing terrorists to leave their positions and fight in the open. The battle there appears to be going very well for Israel.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

Hamas committed the unforgiveable historical sin of being both murderous and weak.

devcroix ⚔️ 🏵

@devarbol

1 year

"Hezbollah, big bro, help me, you promised to help me, please help me, I love you so much, please help me, you SELECTED ME, please help me" Hamas-chan

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

9 months

Would surprise me if the actual impact point isn’t within the US consulate compound but at another nearby villa. The Iranians and Iraqi militias have been obsessed with a supposed Israeli intel presence in that area of the Erbil outskirts along the Pirmam road for years now.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

9 months

The ballistic missile component of this attack looks a lot like the March 2022 strike on Sheikh Baz Karim’s mansion, which incidentally is just about a kilometer southeast of the new US consulate compound. Riskiest real estate in Erbil.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

6 months

If the Soleimani strike convinced me of one thing it's that if we had the will & dedication we could systematically dismantle the Iranian regional threat network across Iraq, Syria and (to an extent) Yemen and the blowback from Iran would actually be quite limited

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

6 months

20-15 years ago they would have EFPed a Bradley in Sadr City and killed three US troops. The US isn't completely buttoned down in Iraq, we have still convoy movements accompanying Iraqi SOF, etc. The reason they don't do this now is that they're whipped, and have been since 2020.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

“Do you condemn?” “I support, but” This idea that everyone has to issue their statements of condemnation or support like they’re their own little model UN country or micro-NGO is an indicator of how social media culture of moral preening has rotted everyone’s brains.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 months

Prosperity Guardian/Poseidon Archer is probably the first time the US has very visibly, no way around it, failed at basic superpower shit like keeping the sea lanes open. Depressing, predictable and avoidable.

WarshipCam

@WarshipCam

3 months

USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier coming into Norfolk, Virginia after 9-month deployment - July 14, 2024 #ussdwightdeisenhower #CVN69 SRC: TW- @johnmorgan726

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

I guess I just don’t see how light-footprint SOF/enabler-heavy commitments of around 2.5-5k troops at the levels recently in place in Iraq, Syria, Somalia & Afghanistan are a distraction from great power competition.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The Guinea coup leader deployed to Afghanistan with the French Foreign Legion. Whaddya know?

Arab News

@arabnews

3 years

#Guinea coup leader Lt. Col. Mamady #Doumbouya is a highly educated, combat-hardened soldier who once served in France’s Foreign Legion

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

I like Girkin's analysis - sharp, not too dense, historically grounded, with a good appreciation for the tactical realities. You know what he doesn't do? Gratuitous references to Clausewitz, musings on the changing character of war vs its eternal nature, etc. Be like Girkin.

WarTranslated (Dmitri)

@wartranslated

3 years

Today, Igor Girkin released on his Telegram a long-form note explaining his pessimism with regards to the second stage of the special operation. He still strongly believes Russia does not possess enough forces to conduct a successful operation. The translation in 3 parts:

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

ISIS has been flowing fighters from Syria down the Tigris River Valley ratlines to reinforce cells along the Kurdish internal border since late Q2 2021. What we're seeing now are reinforced cells shifting to offensive ops.

Hasan

@Honor_Loyalty88

3 years

Good god this isnt a probe at all this is a coordinated campaign against the Pesh. ISF (mainly CTS) and US-led coalition need to huddle up and realize what's happening before ISIS regains its cohesion in this AO and regains the initiative.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Oh.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Believe me I don't retweet stuff like this lightly but I think it's something all Americans should see.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Three weeks into any great power war the US would be buying back every working F-35, PGMs and spare parts stocks from every US on the globe to try to avert systemic shortages that would make the WWI shell crisis look insignificant.

Martin Skold

@MartinSkold2

3 years

Now that I think of it, here’s a question that almost never gets asked: Could US defense spending flex in wartime? If we got into a dust-up with China that didn’t immediately go nuclear, would we be able to ramp up, replace losses, etc?

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

4 months

Smart, knowledgeable people have been flagging this for months. I suspect we're at the leading edge of what's going to be a multi-year surge in terror plots driven by ISIS' successful transition from an Iraq & Syria focused insurgency to global archipelagic terrorist movement.

Bruce Hoffman

@hoffman_bruce

4 months

"By the time intelligence collected on overseas ISIS targets connected the men to the terror group, they had already been vetted by immigration authorities and allowed into the country, officials said."

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

I assume these guys are based at Riyan together with the Emirati CT task force there. You also can't tell from images, but the guys walking around are hovering a couple millimeters off the ground since we know there are no US boots on the ground in Yemen.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Some interesting shots of what looks like US SOF rolling through Ghayl ba Wazir in Hadramawt recently. Note the RWS-mounted Javelin launcher. H/t for the images to @summerahmeda

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Yeah I know zilch about Ethiopia but even that's enough to file this under "things that will not end well"...

Prof. Michael Tanchum

@michaeltanchum

3 years

🇪🇹 #BREAKING : PM Abiy to lead army from frontline as of tomorrow - Addis Standard

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

It also makes CENTCOM’s love affair with the ideologically cohesive & militarily resilient SDF a lot more understandable.

Rasha Al Aqeedi

@RashaAlAqeedi

3 years

Not to distract from what's happening in Afghanistan, but within the light of the Afghan's army rapid collapse maybe the question "How did Mosul fall so quickly to ISIS" can finally be understood better.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Must be a floating Houthi IED.

EvstPalaiologos

@EvstPalaiologos

3 years

Rocks is the new stealth, or sea ghillie.... source:

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

5 months

Was trying to track down a particular quote I vaguely remembered. Asked Chat-GPT, and it gave the wrong author and source, then when I asked for the rest of quote it admitted it had simply made the whole thing up — all in the finest professional customer relations diction.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

6 months

The tragic part of this is there was a credible window around 2021 when core ISIS in Iraq was clearly struggling and we still had a CT presence in Afghanistan & the Sahel where it might have been possible to finish off the entire Islamic State global network.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

6 months

@CalibreObscura In all seriousness, core ISIS in Iraq is the one thing I don’t worry about right now. They are totally finished there and I highly doubt they’ll be coming back. Zero activity and anytime even a tiny cell resurfaces they get smacked down by airstrikes and ISOF raids.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

is massively enhancing their combat power, especially versus heavier, conventionally-patterned armored forces. Are we actually looking at a "light infantry revolution"?

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The solution to the US’ strategic dilemma in Europe has always been a belt of militarized Israel-style national defense states stretching from the Baltic to the Black Seas, lavishly supplied with US hardware a la the Shah’s Iran under the Nixon doctrine.

Aris Roussinos

@arisroussinos

3 years

Poland doubling the size of its army to 250k (!) + 50k reserves, using off the shelf US equipment should probably get more attention in the UK: if it works out, it would be good to learn what can be adapted

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

@JulianWaller @arisroussinos One doesn't to be be an apologist for brutal realpolitik to grasp that the confluence of democratic messianism with the unipolar moment of Western military dominance after 1989-1991 fried the brains of an entire generation of policymakers and strategic thinkers.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Definitely did not see “Marco Rubio livetweeting the February 2022 Spetsnaz/VDV seizure of Kyiv Intl Airport” in the cards…

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The collapse that's about to unfold in Yemen is the result of years of misguided US policy that conceived of diplomacy and military action as opposing or even mutually-exclusive policy tracks instead of complementary tools.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

Maybe, but Ukraine is as much an heir to the Soviet operational traditional as the Russian military.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

Seems they achieved pretty much complete tactical surprise. Seeing claims the leading Ukrainian formations advanced so fast they outran their artillery support. Now the Russians are throwing in all their air to try to stop them before they get to Kupyansk. Just classic.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

"You'll see things here that look odd or even antiquated to modern eyes. Phones with cords, computers that barely deserve the name. It was all designed to operate against an enemy who could infiltrate and disrupt even the most basic computer systems" — Battlestar Galactica (2004)

CasualtiesOfTheDay

@Ayei_Eloheichem

1 year

Intelligence shared with the United States suggests a small cell of Hamas operatives planning the deadly surprise attack on Israel communicated via a network of hardwired phones built into the network of tunnels underneath Gaza over a period of two years.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

2 years

Not just massing for offensive operations. Russian forces in the northern Donbas are going to be fought-out within a few weeks and Ukrainian units in the area are likely to have significant superiority in ground-based fires and armor by by summer.

Tobias Schneider

@tobiaschneider

2 years

Meanwhile Ukrainians generate more operational reserves. They already have parity if not advantage across some dimensions. Arrival of 155mms with e.g. Excals - plus Switchblades! - will make it even harder for Russians to gather and bring to bear sufficient mass for breakthrus.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The reason ISIS in Iraq isn’t a bigger threat is because anything larger than a literal hole in ground with three ISIS dudes sleeping in it gets whacked by a Coalition airstrike and follow on CTS or Kurdish SOF ground raid.

Brett G

@Bert_G_

3 years

This is absolutely true *right now.* But the reason it’s true is because we’ve been in Afghanistan and had been able to respond to any potential threats. That’s no longer the case.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

1 year

Anonymous Twitter nerds sustaining the global intelligence collection architecture like the metaphorical World Turtle holding up the cosmos.

Benjamin Pittet

@COUPSURE

1 year

Ohhh that’s Miley looking at @UAControlMap data!! OSINT FTW! H/t @DefMon3 for pointing that out

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

9 months

Seems like the that’s confirmed, target was Kurdish villa property near the US consulate. Makes me wonder whether those reports of simultaneous drone attacks IVO Erbil airport are accurate at all:

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

9 months

Would surprise me if the actual impact point isn’t within the US consulate compound but at another nearby villa. The Iranians and Iraqi militias have been obsessed with a supposed Israeli intel presence in that area of the Erbil outskirts along the Pirmam road for years now.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

10 months

Reminder this problem was on the brink of being solved back in 2018-2019. Let’s give the iNteRnaTiOnaL cOmMuNiTy including the UsA a big round of applause for directly enabling the creation of a Houthi naval strike complex next to the world’s second busiest maritime chokepoint.

Ruslan Trad

@ruslantrad

10 months

If Houthi control of Yemen's west coast remains intact, strikes on their positions will have little to no effect.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

5 months

The salient point about the 21st century you need to understand is that There Is No Money. Rebuilding military power, long-range capex investments, etc. There Is No Money. It’s all going to be buried beneath a flood of old people, entitlements, and debt.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

7 months

This will become standard practice across the developed world by mid-century as demographic shrinkage & deeply ingrained cultural predispositions against military service begin to bite.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

7 months

A former member of the French special forces is seeking to create for the United Arab Emirates a new elite unit of at least 3,000 foreign recruits, based on the model of the French Foreign Legion. Recruits to be deployed to Yemen and Somalia. — Intelligence Online

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

@CalibreObscura @MAGTravF @MENAConflicted I don’t like to encourage him but @CalibreObscura is spot in here, British ship naming conventions are so much better than the shit the US comes up with.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Another five-man Islamic State terrorist cell rolled up in Erbil. A lone operative conducting close target recon was nabbed last week. Since the start of the year ISIS has mounted a centrally-directed and reasonably well-resourced effort to get penetrate the core KRI.

Baxtiyar Goran ☀️

@BaxtiyarGoran

3 years

Kurdistan Counter-Terrorism Units have arrested a group of #ISIS members who were plotting to the governorate building and foreigners in Erbil ahead of Eid holiday. #Kurdistan

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Essay on the mentality of Putin's siloviks in today's FT. Worth quoting bits of it in full. The tone is very much conservative & neo-imperial Russia, not neo-Soviet. Also views on China. Fascinating stuff, particularly for a non-Russia specialist like yours truly.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Not a cellphone in sight, just people living in the moment.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Wtf definitely did not expect Google to come out in favor of Eric Zemmour's candidacy today

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

5 months

Interesting account of the Soleimani strike here. Seems Trump green-lit the strike right after the initial militia rocket strike on K1 on Dec 27, not as a response to the protests at the Baghdad Embassy. Incredibly based and maniac-pilled.

I Carried Out the Strike That Killed Soleimani. America Doesn’t Understand the Lesson of His Death.

Inside the decision to assassinate Iran’s ruthless general

www.theatlantic.com

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

The idea is withdrawing from Afghanistan enables the US to pivot 2 great power competition, but it’s doubtful whether the reserves of institutional competence necessary to mobilize for any sort of national-strategic goals still exist outside the purely tactical-operational levels

W. W. S. Hsieh - Sometimes Satirical!

@whsieh

3 years

I think US foreign policy “leaders” need to basically assume that many of our institutions are mostly incompetent and determine policy goals accordingly.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Mental image of Twitter execs feeding cyanide capsules to their pets a la Hitler in the Fuhrerbunker.

Josh Caplan

@joshdcaplan

3 years

WSJ: Twitter weighs poison pill to prevent Elon Musk from increasing stake significantly, per sources

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Successful mission enabled by intel collection by our local partner forces in Syria, launched from a base in neighboring Iraq. Just like in Afghanistan where… oh wait what fuck am I talking about

Jen "We aren't going back " Rubin 🥥🌴

@JRubinBlogger

3 years

Successful mission confirms troops on ground in Afghanistan not central to our natl security

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

America is back, adults in the room, etc etc

Benjamin Haddad

@benjaminhaddad

3 years

France is recalling its ambassador to the United States. As far as I know, this is the first time this happens in the countries’ histories.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Periodic reminder that African militaries have been much more sensible about their procurement decisions than either Iraq or the KRI.

Jake

@Jakepor21

3 years

Really terrible pic quality but UPDF 🇺🇬 operates the Plasan Spear 120mm self-propelled mortar carrier.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

This is why I suspect any shooting war with a great power would start with couple of incredibly intensive & destructive weeks followed either by deescalation or an extended, multi-year Phoney War type scenario as economies are mobilized & military production ramps up.

Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Three weeks into any great power war the US would be buying back every working F-35, PGMs and spare parts stocks from every US on the globe to try to avert systemic shortages that would make the WWI shell crisis look insignificant.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

There’s something profoundly unreal about images like this of armored columns churning through Eastern European mud again. Goes to show how much even hardened realists like yours truly internalized - maybe subconsciously - the “end of history” mindset.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

How many German navies is this?

彩云香江

@louischeung_hk

3 years

List of Chinese Naval vessels commissioned in 2021 🇨🇳

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Eventually we’re going to have to level with the fact that CENTCOM doesn’t actually have bottomless grab bag of assets that we perpetually shift over to the Indo-Pacific to make up for the last twenty plus years of utterly inadequate naval & air procurement & force planning.

Mike

@Doranimated

3 years

Blinken adviser hints at military drawdown from Middle East that could get Biden “criticized for being weak” |

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Thought of the day: Almost all analysis of high-intensity great power conflict (from both naval and land warfare types) is mostly fantasy, insofar as most of the physical assets (high-end fast jets, aircraft carriers, PGM stocks etc) 1/4

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

25 days

What if the real Axis of Resistance was the friends we met (and then abandoned) along the way?

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

You’re fucking kidding me.

Tom Bowman

@TBowmanNPR

3 years

We learned today that as many as 600 #Afghan soldiers are helping US maintain security at #Kabul Airport. And what happens to them when the mission ends Aug 31? Pentagon says they can apply for visas. #NPR .

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Good stuff on what an IS-K resurgence in Afghanistan will probably look like. As usual @CalibreObscura 's Not Analysis™ is worth more than almost all the other published analysis out there.

Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ

@CalibreObscura

3 years

[THREAD] As a idiot and not as an Analyst™ I think that whilst it's important that emphasising that current IS activity in Afghanistan doesn't represent a sudden increase in capability; it's more important to consider a possible trajectory of the insurgency.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Has the US conducted a single counterterrorism strike in the last twenty years on any country where it didn’t have drones and surveillance assets based in-country or in a neighboring state? Because the US won’t have either in Afghanistan going forward.

Wesley Morgan

@wesleysmorgan

3 years

What Kirby and Austin are saying here may be true, but it sidesteps something important on the counterterrorism side—surveillance. Mustering aircraft to strike a target is one thing, but the type of 24/7 surveillance of targets that US CT forces are accustomed to is much harder.

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Alex Almeida

@AlexAlmeida2020

3 years

Pretty sure these are from the BOC armored reserve battalion.