Ase Deliri @AhsanDeliri Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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@LeshiSingh

@DevinC6013

Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Lessons of 2019: 1) Correlation isn't close to what you think it actually is. 2) Most people don't know statistics let alone probability. 3) It's not that field is lacking earnest students. It's that the field is taught wrong all around. 4) A second rate statistician is deadly

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 months

There are some truly talent artists walking around. For all the negatives of social media, at least we get to see these.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

1 year

Sam Harris every time he goes on a podcast thinking he’s doing some good.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

1 month

@EricRWeinstein Because when you buy heart and soul into the concept of “vote blue no matter who” you’ve devalued your worth to the point where they have rub your face in it.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

6 years

I was wondering why @nntaleb is under so much noisy baseless attacks. Then it hit me. He studies the root of all fields in life. Risk under uncertainty. His works touch on medicine, politics, economics, business, health, nutrition, entrepreneurship, information theory.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Nothing is impossible. I know a man that once guessed correctly why a woman was mad at him. 🤷‍♂️

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 months

@EricRWeinstein Normally I’d agree with you. But look for extraordinary outliers. Think Buffett and Munger.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

2 months

@EricRWeinstein Corrupt power always has to brag. It's their ultimate payoff space.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

5) If you don't know stats, it's best to use your emotional intuition to disbelieve whatever the social scientist is pushing. 6) They take nature and compartmentalize it into mini models. The models are wrong. 7) They project the model back on to reality with confidence.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

8) Reality laughs. The modellers keep on modelling. 9) Science is hard because it won't conform to your wishes, desires, equations, data sets, etc. 10) Data collected is a snapshot of the past. Not a predictor of the future. It almost always excludes quiet but important info.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

It’s funny. I know 15 farmers. I know too many people with PhDs. The farmer’s conversations are always so much more interesting. Also, I’ve tried bullshiting a farmer, doesn’t work. I’ve bullshit PhDs and they buy it. 🤷‍♂️

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

Blaming your circumstances is the grand excuse of saying the dog ate your life's work.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

So mom had low iron for 15 months. Normal is 115. Her blood work showed it was 79. Below 75 you need blood transfusions. Switched her on to beef which she hasn’t eaten for decades. Doctor called new results? 121. cc: @SBakerMD Doc says to me I don’t know what’s happening? 🤷‍♂️

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Picture this. You're standing at the beach. You see the tides roll out. You see all the animals running inland. You have two options. Follow the animals, or sit there until the Tsunami appears so your need for data can be satisfied.

Steak-umm

@steak_umm

5 years

friendly reminder in times of uncertainty and misinformation: anecdotes are not data. (good) data is carefully measured and collected information based on a range of subject-dependent factors, including, but not limited to, controlled variables, meta-analysis, and randomization

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

11) Fat tail events start with single data points. Recall how Steve Jobs went to Intel and asked for a chip for the new iPhone at the time. They laughed because their MBAs said there was no data to back the potential market for it.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

12) Since data can't be used directly to make calls one way or another, what should one do? Experiment and iterate with tight feedback loops tied to reality. 13) As time passes, assumptions get burned. 14) Don't buy into things that will have to change in time.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Porn is so unrealistic, I just took a shower with my girlfriend & stood in the corner freezing for 20 minutes handing her different shampoos.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.” — Mark Twain

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

If you wanna know why the @WHO should be decommissioned it's pretty simple. They have ONE major responsibility. Corona started on Nov. 17, 2019. Wuhan lockdown began Jan 23rd, 2020. It took till March 11th for the WHO to declare it a pandemic.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

2 years

Basically Neil would be burning his colleagues at the stake because the scientific consensus was that the earth was flat. Neil was, is and always will be a shill. His mask just fell off completely here. FYI, science has nothing to do with consensus. Neither does truth.

Chief Nerd

@TheChiefNerd

2 years

Neil deGrasse Tyson on Why Certain Medical Experts Were Silenced During the COVID Pandemic "I'm not interested in medical pedigree. I'm interested in medical consensus and scientific consensus...The individual scientist does not matter." @delbigtree @neiltyson @HighWireTalk

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

People fundamentally confuse risk with uncertainty. Risk is like playing Russian roulette. The odds can be calculated. Uncertainty is having no clue if the guy next to you has coronavirus and how getting infected by it will impact you and your family. You don’t need a PhD for it

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Every day asymmetries. The harder the choices you make early the more options you'll have later. The easier the choices you make earlier, the fewer the options you'll have later. Applies to debt, and lock downs.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

@MrBulgaria23 Read Incerto by Nassim Taleb. And

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

15) Buy into things that have been time tested with very few assumptions built-in. 16) If something seems stupid, it's because your assumptions about its fundamentals are wrong. 17) Correlation in fields that are normally distributed is spurious.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

18) If the field is fat tailed, correlation is insanely out of whack. It will cause you to misjudge the problem by a factor of 100-1000. Sometimes even more.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

1 year

It takes a lot for me to co-sign anything. This I will co-sign instantly. Notice the intense intellectual capacity channeled through the guard rails of ethical and moral courage, informed by the mistakes of 9/11 and Iraq wars.

Bret Weinstein

@BretWeinstein

1 year

@RetsefL Retsef, You ask: "Hamas/Iran initiated barbaric terror attack to harm Israel & promote their Jiahd agenda. Agree?" Answer: Of course, with the exception that I don't know if Iran initiated/funded/aided this act, or merely blessed it. They are different violations, and the

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

There's a great idea about statistics I picked up on from @nntaleb over the years. Statistics are about populations. Decisions are about individuals. Here's a person conflating those two concepts rather poorly. Risk profiles and payoff spaces differ DRASTICALLY in each sphere.

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

4 years

The vaccine is safe and effective, there's this—as far as I can tell—largely unnecessary 2-day delay at a time when 3,000 people are dying a day. I think a lot of presidents, including President-Elect Biden, would try to put some pressure on people to expedite that process.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

@nntaleb Entrepreneurs.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

“Can you remember who you were, before the world told you who you should be?” ― Charles Bukowski cc: @paulportesi

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

When you're smart you try to prove to everyone in the room how smart you are. When you become wise, you prove to them how smart they are. The latter gets you cooperation.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

I can tell people are judgmental just by looking at them.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

The problem with economics is that it’s just politics masquerading as science.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

“I listen to my instincts because they are older than me.” @normonics on #Boundless conversations. #safeSpace 😆

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Ok. Hospital again about to get mom discharged. She has No cancer! It feels awkward to want to celebrate while there’s a plague going on. But I’ll take the wins and enjoy when I can. 🥳🥳🥳🥳 Thank you all for the thoughts and prayers.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Leader’s are born and cut from a different cloth.

De Generaal 💀

@DeGeneraal_NL

4 years

HELD ❤

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

What is/isn't complexity science? To find out, we went and found the best in the world at explaining it in practical terms. @ember_sadat and I would you to listen to #RiskyConversations with the one and only @normonics Enjoy,

Ep.101 - Complexity Simplified With Joe Norman

Meet Joe Norman, he's an applied complexity scientist. In this episode, we talk about all things complexity. GMO, climate science, voting, elections, localis...

www.youtube.com

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Being an adult is about 90% talking yourself out of getting a milkshake every single day when you totally have enough money to do so.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Now is the perfect time to let doctors and nurses with unrecognized degrees from other countries be of service since they can’t drive cabs anymore anyway.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

This is why it doesn't pay to prevent problems only to cure them after. A person protected by your preventative measures won't appreciate them. This is why whenever I see a soldier, I ALWAYS thank them for their service.

James Altucher

@jaltucher

5 years

MYTH: "Experts are right". Scientists (Harvard) initially thought worldwide deaths could be as high as 140,000,00 people. What?? So clearly wrong and yet we shut down the entire world of economy which has lead to tragic situations for 10s of millions of people. (13/14)

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

These Hong Kong protesters are the most imaginative and adaptive group I’ve ever seen.

Demosistō 香港眾志 😷

@demosisto

5 years

First time ever #HongKongProtesters have used a leaf blower to tackle tear gas. Clearly a new tactic unlocked.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

If at first, you don't succeed, try four more times so that your failure is statistically significant.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Wartime: Nassim mentioned how risk is like smacking the bottom of a ketchup bottle and not seeing anything until the whole table is covered because of exponential ketchup. People are living it and still can’t see it.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Goes to show education and titles behind your name doesn’t mean a damn thing. Eugene, would you rather be stuck on a flight with 500 smokers or one potential coronavirus carrier? Do you understand potential for run away harm? Individual agency? 🤦‍♂️

Eugene Gu, MD

@eugenegu

5 years

In the time it took almost 500 people to die from the coronavirus since it first emerged, more than 1.1 million died from tobacco and more than 107,000 died from the flu. But 330 people did die from lightning strikes so the coronavirus is definitely more dangerous than lightning.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

When you hear someone dismissively reject your conservative approach to corona because of the 2% death rate. Don't get mad, tell them you have 100 smarties, 2 of them will kill them you don't know which two. Shake the box and ask them to eat one and give one to their kid.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

To the cool kids using #OkBoomer , you do realize you’re building a cage that you’ll be walked into eventually right? You don’t get to stay young forever. Your level of disrespect for your current elders will pale in comparison to what you will experience. Just sayin...

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Merry Christmas isn’t exclusionary. It says I am are invited to celebrate your holiday with you. Just as absurd as telling Muslims / Hindus happy Holidays for Eid / Diwali. I am not Christian, but I know and feel the holiday spirit. Thanks for INCLUDING me in it.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

The trick isn't being a good person, that's easy. The trick is staying a good person when the world offers you rewards for doing bad things.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Experts and the real deal, someone I’m proud to call my friend/brother @normonics along with @nntaleb What’s happened over the past few days is nothing short of miraculous. Joe put his ass on the line & went on to correctly prove the right course of action on this global virus

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Childhood is over when you realize your parents are not always right. Adulthood starts when you realize neither are you.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

This is the very definition of #AntiFragile and the poem I think of when I imagine the #RWRI crew.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

The very best skill in life to develop is the ability to recognize what is a waste of your time and energy and to immediately disengage from it without the slightest hesitation.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

People who accept mediocrity get mad at those who even dare mighty things. Nassim is basically asking you to not be a couch potato mocking the Olympian who didn’t medal on tv.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Some books are so good, they change the way you look at life. As you read the words, a small ripple in the pond of your claimed source of truth slowly builds up into a tsunami as you feel the neuronal re-wiring take place, the surge of chemical reactions,

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Politics and reality in one.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

The fears we cannot climb become our walls.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

How build a man when he’s just a boy.

Kevin W.

@Brink_Thinker

3 years

You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

As someone who knows what communists do (take your uncle away in the night and leave trace of him) there’s a particular tactic I want you to notice. They weaponize a word so it becomes a zero. All your good works multiplied by zero? Divide and conquer works, but divide by 0?

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Applies to thinking you’re good when you’re more than likely just lucky as well.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Just remember the people who pray at the alter of science are quick to forget that science and scientists don’t always seek the same answers.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

My friend recently fell for one of those Nigerian prince scam emails. I feel bad for him, but I really needed the money.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

What Orwell failed to predict is that we'd buy the cameras ourselves, and our biggest fear would be that nobody was watching.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

The way I introduce Nassim to people is I say buy the Incerto volume and if you don’t like it, I’ll buy it off you. That’s how you convince someone to take a risk. Very few people who’ve never heard of someone would drop $200+ on a series of books, until you give them a reason.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Humour is the optimal packaging in which to deliver a truth, for truth is inherently ugly.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

A friend’s company just told me they learned their lesson from 08. Paid off all debts over the past 12 years. They have $10 million in cash and no debts. That’s how you run a business. cc: @ember_sadat

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

This is a special Afghan dish called Shola. It’s basically rice cooked with ALL the veggies and herbs you can find. Toss in chick peas and beans into the mix. Served with more veggies, fresh peppers, onions and steak pan seared and chopped.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

You are not your thoughts; they come and go, you are, however, your actions, leave a trail.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

When Nassim says become a king before becoming a philosopher he says so because becoming a king is action based. Becoming a philosopher is just uttering words. Actions > words. Words that come after actions are valuable because you iron your shirt AFTER you wash it.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap, but by the seeds you plant.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Things are tough, but I wanted to share some good news. Mom was being tested for 3 different cancers. This morning got verification that the third & final case is also negative. I am beyond lucky & grateful. A full time job. A side business, and healthy family. Will pay it 4word

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Look back and see fortune. I owe 99.999% of all my success to just straight up pure luck. As much as I can claim to be hard working, or smart or whatever, I connect the dots and see the pattern emerge. I am finite being in an infinite universe and the universe has been kind. 🙏

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

It’s almost as if there was a guy @nntaleb who said don’t fuck with nature because you think you’re intelligent. Nature’s wisdom hits back.

OneZero

@ozm

4 years

When they analyzed the edited embryos and compared them to ones that hadn’t been edited, they found something troubling: Around half of the edited embryos contained major unintended edits.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Here is an example of contrarian economic thinking done by actual businesses run by wise people. "Their No. 1 priority is carrying on,” he added. “Each generation is like a runner in a relay race. What’s important is passing the baton.” cc: @nntaleb

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

The pen is mightier than the sword, but I always keep a sword handy in case my enemy can't read.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

3 types of people: 1) He who makes linear decisions in the face of nonlinear conditions creating systemic risk. 2) He who sleeps the day away drunk but doesn't harm others with their bad decisions. 3) People who can't tell which of these people is better for humanity.

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Even a 73 year old Mike would wreck your soul in a ring. For those can’t fathom it just remember, he’s one of those 1 in 7 billion types. Ultra gifted. Vicious striker. A machine.

Jose Rosado @ WebScale

@joserosado

4 years

Would you fight 53-year-old Mike Tyson for $10k?

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Never in human history have we been this fragile. 1 idiot has the power to cost billions to society. Image courtesy of my childhood brother and first and best workout partner @TyroneETB

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

2 years

People don't realize this but it takes just one person to balance the order vs chaos of the natural world.

Enez Özen

@Enezator

2 years

School bus driver suffers heart attack and 13-year-old gets behind the wheel and saves all children's lives

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Do no harm, but take no shit. If the two conflict, take no shit.

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

The dumb want to fit in. The smart want to stand out. The wise don’t play these games.

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

On closer scrutiny, it turns out that many of today’s problems are a result of yesterday’s solutions.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

“Now is no time to think of what you do not have. Think of what you can do with what there is.” Hemmingway, The Old Man and the Sea.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Business surprise: Show up with integrity. Show up with empathy. Show up with charm. Your competition shows up with lies, selfishness, and greed. Arbitrage the difference. People are so heavily mistreated that it’s you’ll be like an oxygen mask to a drowning man.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

There’s a significant majority of immigrants that escaped countries infatuated with implementing these ideas. Trust us, it never goes the way you think it does. Broken eggs, no omelettes, just broken eggs.

Kamala Harris

@KamalaHarris

4 years

There’s a big difference between equality and equity.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Scents and your advantage: Every animal on the planet uses scent to determine if something is healthy (mate) and good enough to eat ( avoiding rotten food). That's why we have such a deep emotionally driven reaction to smell.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

My friend pouring me homemade lemonade: Her: “Ice?” Me: “yes please.” Her: “crushed or whole”? Me: “I prefer crushed ice. Hard to enjoy a cool drink when your ice has hopes and dreams.” Her: “why can’t you be normal?” Me: “if I was, would you even bother being friends?”

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@AhsanDeliri

3 years

As a good rule of thumb/heuristic, whatever Sam Harris and Paul Krugman are for, bet against. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

When you lose, say nothing. When you win, say even less.

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

I love the internet

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

My resume is just a photo of me taking a nap next to a list of things I don't ever want to do ever again.

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Failure is your teacher. Not your enemy. It’s showing you things that don’t work. It never tells you to stop. It just tells you which way to not go.

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@AhsanDeliri

3 years

Can you imagine how crazy it’ll drive these “follow the science” types if it turns out that the science leads to Trump’s instinct from a year ago?

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@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Just in case y’all need a gentle reminder. Nassim’s idea of how highways can handle traffic up to a point before it becomes a nightmare is perfectly applicable to hospitals and #coronavirus patients. #AntiFragile I know it’s true. I just had to deal with it 2 days ago. 🤷‍♂️

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Do you realize that a woman's "I'll be ready in five minutes." and a guy's " I'll be home in five minutes." is exactly the same? cc: @MarinaStavrou9

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Cheap vs frugal: The frugal person respects their own labour and thus refrains from spending. The cheap person disrespects everyone’s labour and thus refrains from spending. I hate cheap people. In my 37 years on earth, never met a cheapskate that I liked.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy.

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@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Who saw the lockdowns coming? Who saw the riot exits? Where are the pontificaters and AI predictors?

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

Friends, at a time like this please remember what the most important thing you can do is. Please check in on celebrities, like, retweet, and reply to them. They aren't getting the usual amount of attention they need and it's really not fair.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

5 years

2019: Helped bring down a Ponzi scheme. Got threatened with goons. Gave a platform to some of the smartest people I know. Got mom through heart surgery. Helped 7 people off sugar. Prevented 1 child bride marriage. Shared insights. Learned. Coded. Lifted Still here...goons.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

4 years

Instead of going to Starbucks, I make my own coffee, yell my name out incorrectly, and then light a $5 bill on fire.

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Ase Deliri

@AhsanDeliri

3 years

A mini lesson by @nntaleb I finally understand it enough to explain it. A batter in baseball has a hitting average from his past. His next up at bat isn’t informed by his average but his next performance will update the average. avg = past. Next at bat = probability about future

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