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@ActuaryDataPick

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NRL Seasons 22-23: 337-210 (+85.1 units, 62% hit rate). NBA Season Record 348-241 (+50.7 units, 8.8% ROI, 59% hit rate) (free)

Sydney, New South Wales
Joined November 2023
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4 months
🏀 NBA Season 23-24 Recap 🏀 Record: 348-241 Units Won: 50.74 💰 ROI: 8.76% Hit Rate: 59.08% Wasn’t really planning on doing playoff picks but these went 7-2 for +3.66u so it’s a nice addition to the regular season results. Won’t have any picks for the championship series as I
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@ActuaryDataPick
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6 months
Always amusing watching the biggest fraud on twitter copy my picks 😂
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3 months
@CastTiger Well he’s not wrong
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9 months
NBA Recap 5-0 🧹🧹🧹🧹🧹 Jokic ✅ Adebayo ✅ Vassell ✅ Tobias ✅ Denver ✅
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9 months
NBA Recap 5-0 🧹🧹🧹🧹🧹 Jokic ✅ Sochan ✅ Barnes ✅ Quickley ✅ Dinwiddie ✅
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4 months
@AlexCaruso If you’re losing sleep bro just take a break and come back in a few days
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2 months
SCAMMER ALERT In the last month it has come to my attention that Puntershub has been copying my free picks and giving them out to his premium subscribers for a $100 monthly fee. You might ask, how do you know he is stealing your picks? Well here is the proof (screenshots
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13 days
@9_Moley Ben Hunt certainly wasnt the 3rd best halfback this year.
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3 months
@Collin_G_Wood I see white people fighting at the pub every week. Not sure what the purpose of this post was?
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9 months
Sengun u23.5 points BOS give up 7th fewest points in the paint, where sengun scores around 60% of his points 15 point spread with BOS off an embarrassing loss I think they come out and hopefully curb stomp HOU Also like unders on his rebounds or PRA
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8 months
NBA Recap 5-1 PG ✅ Zion ✅ Fultz ✅ Banchero ✅ Gafford ✅ Vassell ❌ ironically was my favourite play of the day 20-6 on the last 26 plays
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6 months
🏀 NBA Regular Season Recap 🏀 Record: 341-239 Units Won: 47.08 💰 ROI: 8.26% Hit Rate: 58.79% This was a really fun first season of tracking my NBA picks publicly. Fell a bit short of the +50u goal but happy regardless. $100 unit bettors are up $4708. As a data guy I am
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10 months
@austinsprops If you’re gonna DM players when they don’t play well, don’t cry why random followers get mad at you for losing picks. Goes both ways.
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9 months
NBA Recap 5-0 Sabonis ✅ Keegan Murray ✅ Kuzma ✅ Hield ✅ Cade ✅ Trust the data
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4 months
@badel_cmail @couriermail Sualli got sent off, what more could the NRL do? Send him to jail?
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9 months
Bane u12.5 RA This line is the most confusing one I’ve played so far so shout out if I have missed something Under 20/26 this season without Ja 3 of these games were vs DAL where he recorded 9, 9, 11 RA
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9 months
Sochan u21.5 PRA 1.95 odds TAB Under 11/15 on the road with Wemby 16 point spread so major blowout potential
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8 months
Hart o8.5 rebounds 1.77 odds PointsBet Hit 9/L9, grabbed 14 in 30 mins the previous matchup
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3 months
State of Origin Game 2 Card (bet365/TAB) $150 to anyone who likes this if we go 7-0 Collins u38.5 Carrigan o51.5 Hunt u31.5 Taulagi u26.5 Walsh u34.5 Coates u26.5 Martin u38.5 All 0.5u each
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10 months
NBA Recap: 4-0 Sabonis ✅ Dejounte ✅ Ant✅ Siakim ✅ Sweep! 🧹🧹🧹🧹
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5 months
@ethxn26 RCG no chance
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9 months
Jokic o19.5 RA on Dabble System play but I have no confidence in the pacers keeping jokic on the court for 4 quarters. So long as this game isn’t a blowout it will hit so tail with caution if you’re sick of blowouts ruining overs bets
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6 months
Jaren Jackson Jr u30.5 PRA 1.95 odds Sportsbet - under in 26/39 games with Bane - draws the Aaron Gordon matchup - 14 point spread Way to many factors I like here not to play this
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8 months
Scottie Barnes u13.5 RA 1.80 odds PointsBet Under 14/16 since start of Jan Poeltl, Bruce brown, Quickley should all be active so I don’t really understand this line
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2 months
I’m now +100u in profit since starting this account less than a year ago. Growth has been massive, get amongst it by joining my free discord (link in bio)
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9 months
Doubling down with Scottie u7.5 rebounds because these odds are too good to pass up on bet365 Rebounds since trade: 6, 2, 4, 2, 3 Major blowout potential also
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9 months
CJ McCollum o8.5 RA bet365 Hit rate is 20/27 for the season. Main concern is that he is playing max 30 mins lately. Averaging 28 mins in January vs 33 rest of the season. Not overly concerned by this as he has hit 7/L8
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5 months
@thejacknolan They still have their 3 peat though? That definitely was a sight to see
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9 months
NBA Recap 4-1 Scottie u13.5 RA 2u ✅ Scottie u7.5 R ✅ Jokic u21.5 RA ✅ Derozan u9.5 RA ✅ Maxey ❌
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9 months
Todays Card Bane u12.5 RA Barnes u14.5 RA Quickley o8.5 RA Keegan Murray u15.5 points Conley u20.5 PRA Sabonis u22.5 RA
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2 months
I’d go a step further and ask why it’s so rare for cappers to provide a weekly or monthly update of their season to date. Doing daily recaps doesn’t really mean shit if you’re posting 5 plays a day and retweeting each play after it wins/losses because it takes too fucking long
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JFar 🧞‍♂️
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2 months
My shiny ass forehead rambling about integrity in Gambling Twitter
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2 months
NRL Round 23 Spreads/Totals Card $100 to someone who likes this if we go 7-0 Storm -10.5 1.91 odds Titans/Sharks u52.5 points 1.84 odds Panthers -14.5 1.91 odds Manly ML 1.91 odds Cowboys ML 2.25 odds Dragons u22.5 points 1.88 odds Dragons/Bulldogs u48.5 points 1.90 odds
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4 months
@9_Moley I didn’t think it was possible to make reed Mahoney look any smaller than he currently is but congrats your TV has done it
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8 months
Fox o3.5 assists 1.67 odds PointsBet Yes this bet is obviously disgusting in terms of juice but has a 17/20 hit rate at home this season including a 16 assist game vs DEN While the odds suck I think 1.67 is higher than it should be and therefore presents value
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8 months
J Holiday o4.5 rebounds 1.71 odds PB Hit rate 32/43 for the year and 26/32 with 30 mins+, hoping IND can keep it close (Hali might play and BOS on a b2b) Jrue has 6, 6, 6, 7 rebounds in the games this season with IND I don’t like reb props for guards but data is hard to ignore
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7 months
Great write up by @slattlocks this will no doubt be a community play by tip off. Data is impossible to ignore. Tailing on dabble for 1.78 odds
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7 months
Coby White o9.5 RA (-125) • Discounted line! • 84% hit rate without Lavine (avg 11.5) • 88% hit rate without Lavine on the road (avg 12.4) • White has gone over this line in 16 of his last 20 games without Lavine (avg 11.4) • White has gone over this line in 9 of his last
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8 months
Jarrett Allen u17.5 points 1.80 TAB This is a sell high spot after he dominated the bucks three times in the past week. Averages 15.2 for the season and mobley should be back in (likely to have a mins restriction though), so it seems like a good spot to fade
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8 months
Jaylen Brown u3.5 assists 1.91 odds Sportsbet Gamelog vs IND this season 1 assists on 3 potentials 0 assists on 5 potentials 1 assist on 5 potentials 2 assists on 7 potentials (Tatum didn’t play)
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8 months
NBA Recap 3-0 Lillard ✅ Cavaliers ✅ Suns ✅ 🧹🧹🧹
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9 months
Conley u20.5 PRA Under 20/32 games with AntMan so implied odds of 1.60 Scores 62% of his points from 3PM, ORL give up the 7th fewest 3s in the league
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9 months
@AndyJPuente @Underdog__NBA Same way embiid ducks jokic any time Philly play in Denver?
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9 months
Fox o5.5 assists 1.80 Ladbrokes Hit rate at home is 12/18 Had 8 in the previous matchup on the road Hawks conceded 3rd most assists to PGs
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8 months
ASG Prop Durant o20.5 points 1.88 Sportsbet Narrative angle again, hasn’t played in the ASG since 2019 so he’ll be keen to put on a show. Lines up alongside LeBron so I’m sure he will want to outshine him Over 7/8 ASGs when getting more than 20 mins where the miss was 19
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9 months
Scottie Barnes u14.5 RA (1.5u) running this back, under 4/4 since the Quickley trade
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7 months
😵‍💫
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7 months
NBA Recap 3-0 Claxton ✅ Mobley ✅ Atlanta ✅ Solid last 3 days going 13-5
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8 months
Coby White o9.5 RA 1.86 bet365 Firstly I see a lot of people on his points or PRA so I’m hoping I haven’t made the wrong choice here Hit rate 16/19 without Lavine this season Registered 13 vs PHX earlier this season with Lavine, 3 came in OT so it was tight
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8 months
Vassell u22.5 points 1.80 odds TAB Over in 3/L3 but prior to this just 1/L21 NOP present a tough matchup for him scoring 13 and 14 the two previous matchups Trusting the long term data and difficult matchup here
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8 months
Nesmith o6.5 RA 1.83 odds bet365 Averaging 34 mins in the last 8 games where he has averaged 7.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists and is over 7/8 The one miss he fouled out on 6 RA after 27 mins
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8 months
Cannot wait for NRL season to start
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7 months
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9 months
NBA Recap 1-0 Perfect read
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9 months
Sengun u23.5 points BOS give up 7th fewest points in the paint, where sengun scores around 60% of his points 15 point spread with BOS off an embarrassing loss I think they come out and hopefully curb stomp HOU Also like unders on his rebounds or PRA
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6 months
Rest in peace team prop markets
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7 months
ANNOUNCEMENT Hi all, I had been posting NRL Player props on reddit for the past two seasons and had a couple of loyal followers who requested I start posting NBA player props this season.
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9 months
Jokic u21.5 RA 1.76 odds Aaron Gordon u9.5 RA 1.75 odds Both on Sportsbet for a unit Jokic: under 9/10 away games with Murray this season, 27/34 total games last season AG: under 9/10 away games with Murray Main risk is PHI on a b2b, but should split these picks at worst
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2 months
Warriors vs Eels Recap 5-0 🧹🧹🧹🧹🧹 ✅1u Matterson o46.5 1.87 odds ✅0.5u Lane o37.5 1.87 odds ✅0.05u Daejarn Asi ATS 7.00 odds ✅0.2u Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 2.45 odds ✅0.1u Blaize Talagi ATS 2.85 odds ✅0.1u Jake Tago ATS 2.50 odds
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2 months
Warriors vs Eels Card 1u Matterson o46.5 1.87 odds 0.5u Lane o37.5 1.87 odds ATS Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) 2.45 odds 0.2u bet365 Jake Tago (Eels) 2.50 odds 0.1u bet365 Blaize Talagi (eels) 2.85 odds 0.1u topsport Daejarn Asi (eels) 7.00 odds 0.05u bet365
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9 months
#NBA Card Jokic u21.5 RA - 1.76 odds Aaron Gordon u9.5 RA - 1.75 odds SGA u6.5 assists - 1.70 odds Tobias Harris u17.5 odds - 1.80 odds Maxey o34.5 PRA - 1.82 odds (0.5u)
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5 months
@The_Shoe24 I never enjoyed Monday night footy until after it was gone. Starting the work week knowing there’s footy on in the evening
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7 months
NRL Player Props Gave out these picks on reddit with the following results Season 22 Record: 116-61 (+39.5units) Season 23 Record: 221-149 (+45.6 units) Season 22 & 23 record: 337-210 (+85.1 units, 62% hit rate) These will be the majority of picks I give out this season
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7 months
Cade Cunningham u23.5 points 1.95 odds TAB Seems like a good sell-high spot here as he’s gone over this number the last 4 games on extremely efficient 3 point shooting, something that CLE should be able to defend well. Under 3/3 vs CLE this season
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9 months
Claxton u11.5 rebounds 1.83 PB (1u) He has rebounded well of late but I’m targeting this as a matchup play Under 7/7 vs Bam (although half of these are small mins) Played MIA twice this season for 6 rebounds in 24 mins (Bam played 1) . Just think this number is too high.
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7 months
Kuzma u10.5 RA 1.80 odds bet365 6, 4, 5 vs CLE this season Longer term data has him going under more often than over Strong blowout potential
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8 months
NBA Recap 2-0 Jrue o4.5 rebounds ✅ Jaylen brown u3.5 assists ✅ Great day on a couple of unique picks
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6 months
Coby white o9.5 RA 1.90 odds bet365 0.5u Hit rate without Lavine this season is 35/45 but has missed 4/L5. Not sure if this coincides with dosunmu starting or not as one miss he came off the bench returning from injury and two others were vs pacers who are hard to register
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8 months
Kuminga o19.5 points 1.90 odds bet365 Scores 70% of his points in the paint and IND give up the most FGM in the paint. He’s obviously in a nice run of form right now so I’m ready to jump on the train with a perfect matchup Main concern is GSW are on a b2b
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9 months
Quickley o8.5 RA Running this back but it’s 1 higher now so the hit rate since the trade is only 3/4 where the miss was 8. Has 13 and 15 in the last two games so I really think at a minimum he’s hitting 8
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9 months
NBA Recap 3-0 🧹🧹🧹 Maxey ✅ Curry ✅ Holmgren ✅
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9 months
Keegan Murray u15.5 points Love fading this guy on the road, under 11/13 on the road
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8 months
RJ Barrett o9.5 RA 1.77 odds PointsBet Write up to follow
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7 months
NBA Recap 1-0 Aaron Gordon ✅ Forget the last 36 plays where I lost 10u, I just swept today!!!! I’m on 🔥🔥🔥🔥
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8 months
15-4 on the last 19 plays
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8 months
NBA Recap 2-0 Jrue o4.5 rebounds ✅ Jaylen brown u3.5 assists ✅ Great day on a couple of unique picks
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9 months
Updated NBA Record: 187-129 (+28.1 units, 9% ROI, 59% hit rate) Will be aiming to finish the season at 50 units of profit on 10% ROI
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21 days
Panthers vs Roosters Card $100 to someone who likes this if this card yields more than 5u profit 0.5u Panthers ML / Roosters +24.5 1.76 odds 0.5u Panthers ML / Roosters +18.5 2.10 odds 0.5u Panthers to score 3 unanswered tries - No 2.12 odds 0.25u Brian To’o Any Time Try
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8 months
Poeltl o22.5 PRA 1.86 odds bet365 Over 16/22 with 25+ minutes and gets a favourable matchup vs hornets
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8 months
Sabonis u13.5 rebounds 19/28 road hit rate PHX give up the second fewest rebounds to centres so watch him grab 14 rebounds in the first quarter, book it
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8 months
Jalen Williams u4.5 assists 1.82 Ladbrokes Averaging 4.7 potential assists in the 3 matchups vs MIN this season registering 3 assists in all 3
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7 months
Deaaron Fox o25.5 points 1.83 Ladbrokes Sabonis likely out, has hit 8/L9 without him. Even if he does play I think this is a decent shout given Spurs leak points to point guards. Had 42 in the previous matchup
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9 months
NBA Recap 2-1 Jokic assists ✅ Jokic RA ✅ Derozan ❌ Only a small amount of profit due to staking. Rough loss on derozan. Had 6 after 3 quarters but gets 5 in the fourth Jokic is just a straight up MVP for the betting community no other contenders
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9 months
@IdeaFactory6969 @AlexCaruso I mean you’d expect a 76% hit rate when you’re betting -350 to -400 odds lmao
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3 months
State of Origin Game 2 Recap 6-2 We’ve now hit 30/L41 bets! ✅Collins u38.5 ✅Carrigan o51.5 ✅Hunt u31.5 ✅Walsh u34.5 ✅Coates u26.5 ✅Cotter u54.5 ❌Martin u38.5 ❌Taulagi u26.5
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3 months
State of Origin Game 2 Card (bet365/TAB) $150 to anyone who likes this if we go 7-0 Collins u38.5 Carrigan o51.5 Hunt u31.5 Taulagi u26.5 Walsh u34.5 Coates u26.5 Martin u38.5 All 0.5u each
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8 months
Josh Hart o12.5 RA 1.72 odds Sportsbet Cleared 9 in a row before an off game vs ORL who are difficult to register RAs against. NYK still relatively depleted so should see 35+ mins
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8 months
Looking to cash back to back collabs with @SammyGprops on Paul George
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8 months
Paul George O 7.5 RA (+114) collab w/ @ActuaryBetsHub Over in 71.7% of games this year, his mins restriction looks to be done for the most part as he just played 32 mins in both legs of a B2B. Over in both games vs Nop this year who are in the bottom half of the league in both
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8 months
Tre Mann o10.5 RA 1.76 odds bet365 Since joining the hornets he has logged 13 RA (27 mins), 16 RA (34 mins). ATL are a relatively soft matchup for RAs
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8 months
Banchero u11.5 RA 1.77 PointsBet MIN are the hardest team for players to register RAs against Had just 5 RA previous matchup Potential blowout risk All of these factors lead me to believe this is worth betting on.
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8 months
NBA Recap 3-1 KAT ✅ J. Williams ✅ Rockets ✅ J. Allen ❌ 30 seconds away from a sweep. Nice couple of days. Onto tomorrow.
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5 months
#NRLMagicRound Multi $200 give away if this hits to anyone who likes this post (Never done a give away and not a fan of multis but for 1 weekend a year I think I can get into the spirit)
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8 months
Is this too many bets? Yes
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9 months
Derozan u9.5 RA (2u on pointsbet) Data looks crazy season hit rate is 26/37 Home hit rate is 15/20 With Vucevic & Lavine starting the season hit rate is 15/18, home hit rate is 10/10 Now add in Coby White this line really should be no higher than 8.5
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8 months
Dillon Brooks o1.5 assists 1.86 odds bet365 (0.5u) Can’t believe I’m playing this but I kinda wanna look like a genius if it pays off. Potential assists without FVV this season are 6, 7 and 4 (23 mins). TOR give up the 5th most assists in the league so willing to play 0.5u
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8 months
Zion o30.5 PRA 1.83 odds bet365 Scores 78% of his points in the restricted area, SAS give up 4th most FGM in the RA Hit rate 26/38 for the season and 13/17 on the road
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7 months
Jarrett Allen u20.5 points 1.95 odds TAB This is the highest line I’ve ever seen for my favourite NBA Player to bet on. He just had a huge game vs MIN where he had 15 FTM. I’m willing to fade him here against Claxton, a guy he has generally struggled against
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8 months
Jarrett Allen u17.5 points 1.80 odds TAB This is the third or fourth time I’ve played his unders and always will with a 17.5 line as he currently averages 15.6 and CLE are fully healthy now. Throw in CHI giving up the fewest points in the paint I feel like this bet has value
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8 months
Jokic u21.5 RA 1.76 odds bet365 System play here: road game with Jamal Murray active. Will post the hit rate when I can get to my computer
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9 months
Sabonis u22.5 RA Under 23/35 games this season and 13/15 on the road where one of the hits was exactly 23 Really not understanding why the line is this high so just have to play it Blowout potential also
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8 months
Tobias Harris u9.5 RA 1.71 odds bet365 Hit rate is 8/11 with embiid on the road Denver give up 6th fewest rebounds and 7th fewest assists overall Had 9 RA in the previous matchup at home where he got 4 assists on 3 potentials Really like his u3.5 assists for 2.20 odds also
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8 months
Sabonis u21.5 RA 1.88 Sportsbet Road hit rate 17-9 Previous match with CLE was 10 assists on 9 potentials and 9 rebounds on 18 potentials. This was a home game where he has better splits for RA. So would expect slight regression, especially on assists.
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9 months
Steph Curry u9.5 RA 1.78 odds Sportsbet Returning to this wagon as ORL are a stingy matchup for RAs (top 5 in the league overall for RAs conceded). Overall hit rate is 13/16 with draymond out of the lineup.
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7 months
Sabonis u15.5 rebounds 1.74 odds Sportsbet Fool me once, shame on you Fool me 7 or 8 times, shame on me This mf has made me look the fool since January but this line is just too high not to play.
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7 months
Sabonis u21.5 points 1.85 odds TAB Struggles against Bam, under 12/14 career matchups Scores 69% of his points in the restricted area where MIA give up the fewest FGM Scores against teams that are top 5 for fewest restricted area FGM: 17, 13, 18, 15, 17
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7 months
J. Holiday o4.5 assists 1.77 odds Ladbrokes 50% of his assists come from 3P, CHI leak 3s, half of the assists they concede are from 3. Jrue had 9A on 12 pA last matchup which is a high conversion rate but has hit 13/15 games against teams who are bottom 10 for 3s conceded
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