I'm excited to co-host this Spaces episode on Wednesday afternoon with
@WOLF_Financial
and
@StockMKTNewz
!
I'll be introducing two long-term
@7investing
opportunities:
1) The first is a very low risk stock. This global compounder of capital will pretty reliably generate you a
At one point in 2008, my investment portfolio was down 40%.
FORTY PERCENT!!
12 years later, it had grown large enough for me to self-fund a business, hire the greatest team on the planet, and love what I do every day.
Long-term investing works. Have patience. Have conviction.
Say that I give you $1 million to invest in just one stock for the next 5 years.
In 5 years, I'll be asking for my full $1 million back, but you get to keep the rest. In other words, you take on the downside risk but you also keep all the upside.
What stock are you buying?
In April 2014, my father gave me a good portion of his retirement portfolio to invest on his behalf. He figured "I knew a thing or two about the stock market" & was finally comfortable giving me the reins.
I just checked the overall balance yesterday. It's officially quintupled.
I'm going to make a contrary opinion and publicly defend
@CathieDWood
at
@ARKInvest
.
It seems like everyone is calling for her head right now; due to $ARKK's underperformance in 2021.
But I believe that is short-sighted & misses the point of how disruptive innovation works.
After a solid month of deep-diving into Tesla, I've come to two important investing conclusions...
1) Tesla as "a car company" is only worth $104 per share.
That's not very much. Especially considering that $TSLA is trading hands at $180 per share
Name a company with a Free Cash Flow margin greater than 30%.
[Free Cash Flow is the cash generated by a business after it pays all of its operating & capital costs, including those for future growth.
A 30% FCF margin is insanely high. It means the company is swimming in cash.]
I have some very exciting news.
My good friends
@7AustinL
,
@Matt_Cochrane7
,
@7investingSteve
and I are all passionate about helping investors find the stock market’s best opportunities.
On March 1st, we’ll be joining forces & working together to launch .
Upstart $UPST remains my top short-squeeze candidate for 2023.
So many similarities to Tesla in 2019. Once the Model 3 ramped, $TSLA's stock soared 743% in 2020.
Upstart is profitable, yet is out-of-favor due to the macro. It has 40%+ short interest right now.
Buckle up...
OK, I've taken a step back to think about the Teladoc's $TDOC proposed acquisition of Livongo $LVGO.
There are some red flags beginning to emerge. And I've gone from bullish to moderately bearish about this entire deal.
Still holding my $LVGO position for now.
Let's dive in.
Fastly $FSLY just hired a new CFO named Ron Kisling.
I did some sleuthing into his background.
And my conclusion is that Fastly is almost certainly about to get acquired.
OK, it’s time to dig into the nitty-gritty of Datadog $DDOG.
The following is what I have found from running the company through my “SaaS-o-Matic” investment framework.
Brace yourselves & grab a cup of coffee. Here we go! ☕️
*No position in $DDOG.
The votes are in, and Datadog is our winner!
I will now run $DDOG through my SaaS Lifetime Value framework & post my conclusions to Twitter.
If anyone has thoughts, opinions, or interesting data points related to this company, please post them below.
We talk a lot about
#SaaS
, and I'd like to present a framework I use to evaluate these types of companies.
It's important for SaaS to recoup upfront costs thru ongoing subscriptions.
I'll walk through my process, using Veeva Systems $VEEV as an example.
Really excited to chat w/
@saxena_puru
tonight for our
@7investing
podcast.
Puru's a retired money manager and he's brilliant at reading the tea leaves.
We'll be talking macro and what's on the horizon for the stock market.
What other questions would you like me to ask him?
I had a great year in 2019: my portfolio's up 77% vs the 28% gain for the S&P. It helps that my two largest positions, $MELI and $OLED, are each up 100%+.🚀
But another stock, which is my largest cost basis ever & now my 3rd-largest holding, is new this yr. Any guess what it is?
At one point in 2008, my entire portfolio was down 40%. Worst feeling ever.
It seemed like every day, the stock market – and our savings – fell even more.
At one point, my wife even asked “Isn’t the point of investing to actually *make* money?”
I wondered the same thing.
Elon Musk's presentation at
#SXSW2018
was incredible. I'm convinced he is the most innovative thinker of our entire generation. I'll post a full recap of his conversation (+ video of his 3 Amigos dancing) to my Twitter feed later tonight. Please like or RT if you're interested.
Amazing that Apple $AAPL is now committing 88% of its operating cash flow to share repurchases.
It has now decreased its outstanding share count by 25% during the past five years.
For a company with a $2.2 trillion market cap, that is simply incredible.
@ycharts
My Top Stock for 2020 is now live!
We're now entering my 7th year of New Year's picks, and my average rec is up 112%. 7 of 18 stocks have at least doubled, and 3 are up more than 400%.
Come see why I'm so excited about my top idea this year: $YEXT.
I don't understand how unemployment is still at only 3.4%.
It feels like every company of more than 1k employees is laying off 10% of its workforce right now.
Is this just a lagging indicator that's about to go higher? Are SMBs less affected by rates hikes?
What am I missing?
Dear Twitter,
We need to have a talk about market volatility & valuation.
A lot of investors are getting scared right now. It's time to define what it means to be a long-term investor & back it up w/ some hard numbers.
I'll be publishing a CEO letter within the week.
- Simon
The stock market is now offering you the CTV leader - who has 52% share of this lucrative industry - for just 5.7x sales.
Even with "weak" guidance, $ROKU is projecting 25% revenue growth.
Its US user base has now surpassed that of all linear cable companies combined.
@ycharts
What do you believe are the biggest 'coiled springs' in the stock market right now?
(Meaning stocks that are just waiting for the right catalyst to cause them to pop?)
For me, it's $UPST and $SOFI. Possibly $RKLB. Still thinly-traded small caps. But institutions are 👀.
Livongo $LVGO is now the largest single position in my investment account.
Never expected it would become a five-bagger in just five months.
I also added to it over time.
A great example of the benefit of 1) placing small upfront bets, and 2) adding to your winners!
I've now made 10 stock purchases during the past 40 days.
Most recently (yesterday), that included a new position in Livongo Health $LVGO & adding to stakes in MercadoLibre $MELI and Telaria $TLRA.
What stocks have you been buying during this downturn?
Between the cash and the $TDOC shares, Livongo is valued at $18.5 billion in today's acquisition announcement.
The company's market cap was $14 billion at yesterday's close.
$LVGO shares are about to shoot through the roof this morning.
Really enjoyed speaking with Silicon Valley tech analyst
@Beth_Kindig
about investing in the tech industry!
Beth has an excellent investing process, analyzing micro-trends and using a product-market-fit approach to identify opportunities.
If I was a conspiracy theorist, I might suggest that this recent chain of events at
#OpenAI
was entirely premeditated.
1) 6 months ago: Microsoft $MSFT unveiled its new "Athena" custom chips that it was specifically designing to power the AI models for CoPilot and ChatGPT.
I'd like to begin doing my research on Unity Software $U.
This one is still fairly new to me. Though I'm intrigued, because it seems quite necessary for the creation of the Metaverse.
Does anyone have thoughts or a strong opinion about Unity?
A woman approached me at
#FoolFest2019
today & told me that by following our recommendations in Motley Fool Explorer, she was able to afford to put her son through law school.
I can't tell you enough how incredibly proud that made me feel. We're making an impact out there.
A recent conversation w/
@FoolMCochrane
got me thinking about this question:
"If you were to buy just one international stock & hold it for the next 20 years, what would it be?"
I might have to go w/ HDFC Bank $HDB. Incredible tailwinds at its back. 💰
@TMFInnovator
3/ A purer play to tap into India's economic potential for investors, might be HDFC Bank $HDB. Special thanks to
@saxena_puru
for taking time to run through this investment for me earlier this year. (cont)
Matt's coverage of Cassava $SAVA is absolutely incredible.
If you're an investor in the stock -- or even if you're just interested in the company -- he is a must-follow here on Twitter.
CUNY Paused / What's Next for $SAVA
So the
@CityCollegeNY
investigation is paused and therefore the
@HHS_ORI
is likely paused as well. I think ORI has a probe started into CUNY. I have not read the laws on how ORI deals with institutions that receive HHS funds but fail to
I'm noticing a common (and frustrating) misconception on FinTwit that "investing is easy."
It's not. We're in a bull market. But I think many people are underestimating the risks right now.
There is no free lunch. And there's no substitute for thorough, objective research.
10) So there's still a lot of questions that I don't yet have answers to.
$LVGO is my largest investment position. And I loved it being that way...until this morning.
Thank you to anyone who's made it through this Twitter rant. Please share thoughts & anything I'm missing. 🍻
MasterCard $MA has become a 15-bagger during the past decade and now sports a 44% free cash flow margin.
Absolutely incredible.
@Matt_Cochrane7
@ycharts
We had a great discussion about the best international stocks to buy & hold for the next 20 years. Let’s change gears this week & take things in the completely opposite direction:
“What stock has *the highest likelihood* of becoming a 10-bagger within the next two years?” 🚀
A recent conversation w/
@FoolMCochrane
got me thinking about this question:
"If you were to buy just one international stock & hold it for the next 20 years, what would it be?"
I might have to go w/ HDFC Bank $HDB. Incredible tailwinds at its back. 💰
Today I am extremely proud.
In just a few hours, we'll officially open the doors of to help people find the stock market's greatest opportunities. It's a dream to see this come to life.
And I am honored to be joined by an incredible team in this journey.
Okay, I'm done taking my victory lap for 2023. Now it's time for my next public-facing prediction.
Cassava Sciences $SAVA is my top short-squeeze candidate for 2024.
There are a ton of catalysts on the horizon here; most notably the results of its fully-enrolled Phase 3
Upstart $UPST remains my top short-squeeze candidate for 2023.
So many similarities to Tesla in 2019. Once the Model 3 ramped, $TSLA's stock soared 743% in 2020.
Upstart is profitable, yet is out-of-favor due to the macro. It has 40%+ short interest right now.
Buckle up...
I wrote 500 words this morning on the recent selloff, especially as it relates to
#SaaS
companies.
Realized there would be no way to post this piecemeal to Twitter, so I've attached a copy here.
Bottom line = I think this selloff is a huge opportunity for LT investors.
$WORK
I've now made 10 stock purchases during the past 40 days.
Most recently (yesterday), that included a new position in Livongo Health $LVGO & adding to stakes in MercadoLibre $MELI and Telaria $TLRA.
What stocks have you been buying during this downturn?
Prediction: The coronavirus epidemic will have a greater-than-expected impact on the upcoming quarterly results of retail, travel, and entertainment companies.
Companies like Starbucks $SBUX are *already* toning down their fiscal 2020 estimates. The airlines will be next.
1/2
A FANTASTIC idea here from $SAVA.
The company is issuing warrants to all existing shareholders.
These will give shareholders the option to purchase additional shares in January at $33 (which would also include a Bonus 0.5 shares too), as a way to raise capital for its ongoing
My interview with
@saxena_puru
is now live! We discuss:
Similarities btwn today's environment and the financial crisis and 2000 tech bubble
Why he likes e-commerce, fintech, and software - and his favorite stocks from each
Why he hedges
And more!
Had a call today w/ a 7investing subscriber (who also knew me in my previous role) who's retiring & moving into a custom new home in NC.
He wanted "to personally thank me for all of the excellent stock ideas over the years. They made a difference."
This is why I love what I do.
This MS sell rec on $SOFI is the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard!
Why would you sell a company who's executing nearly flawlessly, just as it's hitting the inflection point of its growth curve??
1) Jan 2022: SoFi obtains its US banking charter. Officially, it was America's
A Morgan Stanley analyst came out with a sell rating this morning on $SOFI and a price target of $7. The argument is that it should be valued as a bank at a price to tangible book value of 1.5 plus a price to sales for the technology platform of 3.
Do you want to know why I put
Starting next month,
@7investing
is going to launch something completely different. And it's going to break the traditional financial media as we know it.
I'm extremely excited about this. Will share all of the details very soon. 👀
Recap of things I believe to be true for Cassava $SAVA.
TL;DR = Today's selloff is a long-term buying opportunity.
CC:
@7investing
@MattNachtrab
- The DOJ has all of the blinded data from the P2 trial. No one is hiding anything from this investigation and there should be no
Recap of things I believe to be true for Cassava $SAVA.
TL;DR = Today's selloff is a long-term buying opportunity.
CC:
@7investing
@MattNachtrab
- The DOJ has all of the blinded data from the P2 trial. No one is hiding anything from this investigation and there should be no
My fellow 7investing advisor
@Matt_Cochrane7
& I are becoming very intrigued with the Indian market.
Seems there's a lot of opportunities here, in a fast-growing & democratic market. Especially in banking and digital payments.
But it's still underfollowed by US-based investors.
Now's a good time to consider "upgrading" your portfolio.
Even if you're out of cash for new positions, it's not a bad idea to sell existing positions in order to buy higher-quality companies.
I personally sold $ATVI (whose moat is eroding) for $JPM, $UNH, $XOM & others.
I'm not a paid spokesman for ARK. Nor do I have anything to gain from posting this.
But my intention is to encourage investors and the financial media - especially those critical of anyone's single-year performance - to think as long-term owners of any investment they buy into.
If you're really struggling right now & simply don't know what to do during this market, send me a DM.
I will re-instill your confidence in long-term investing, even in the darkest times. And while I can't give personal advice, I'm happy to hear your story.
Take care out there.
I'm very concerned about what's going on in the market right now.
I'm all for talking about how our
@7investing
picks outperform the S&P 500 over long periods of time.
But many of the market's current gains are being fueled by short-term trading rather than long-term investing.
Let me know when you hit peak pessimism.
When falling stock prices are pissing you off, when the media headlines are driving you insane, and when you just don't know if you can take it any more
That's when it's time to buy.
This is the most candid article I've ever written for
@7investing
.
It's a truthful, retrospective look at our history. And the most important lessons I've learned.
If you'd take the 8 minutes to read these 2,109 words, I'd eternally be grateful. 🙏
My brother-in-law David Williams was a fighter pilot.
He trained at the real-life TOPGUN program that Tom Cruise made famous in the movies.
He rose through the ranks and eventually became a Major in the Marine Corps.
He died too soon, from medical complications that arose
I'll be interviewing the legendary
@morganhousel
tomorrow for our
@7investing
podcast.
We'll be discussing his book "The Psychology of Money" (which is amazing), the power of compounding, & how to win at long-term investing.
What other questions would you like me to ask Morgan?
I'm so excited to welcome Anirban Mahanti
@7amahanti
as a lead advisor of
@7investing
!
Anirban has a PhD in Computer Science & previously served as Research Director of The Motley Fool.
I can't wait to see the innovative companies he finds for our members. Welcome to the team!
What are your thoughts about Cassava Sciences $SAVA?
Its proposed drug Simufilam (in Phase 3) is a pill that would proactively prevent the amyloid protein buildups that lead to Alzheimer's.
That sounds innovative...but also very hard to do.
What should I know about $SAVA?
I think the 3 market-defining companies of the next five years will be $OKTA, $MDB, and $NEWR.
All are cloud-native, mission-critical, & highly disruptive. And I expect they'll be incredible-performing stocks.
I challenge anyone reading this to share their best ideas as well.
I've spent quite a lot of time thinking about what's going on in the world and how it's impacting the stock market.
My ultimate conclusion is that innovation will win and that long-term investing still works.
$AMZN $MSFT $UPST
#CPI
#inflation
#stocks
Here's some painful public shaming. My 3 biggest investing mistakes of all time:
1) Sold $GOOG @ $155 (spl adj) in '08
2) Sold $AMZN @ $87 in '09
3) Sold $NFLX @ $23 (spl adj) in '10
And all 3 were up big when I sold them. The moral of the story? Hold on to your winners!
I looked back today at 5 dividend-paying stocks I bought for my ROTH 10 yrs ago:
American Tower $AMT
CME Group $CME
Illinois Tool Works $ITW
Lockheed Martin $LMT
Lowe's Companies $LOW
Key takeaway: Great companies compound your returns. Especially if you reinvest the dividends.
I'm crowdsourcing an investing idea with FinTwit today: this time for $NIO.
Even though it faces several China-specific risks, NIO is innovating quickly & winning favor with affluent consumers.
I think it deserve a spot on your investing watchlist.
Here are my thoughts about Cassava Sciences' $SAVA massive gain today.
I've also posted this to our
@7investing
Community Forum. Please join for free if you'd like to discuss this stock in greater detail.
*************************
Isn't the stock
Recap of things I believe to be true for Cassava $SAVA.
TL;DR = Today's selloff is a long-term buying opportunity.
CC:
@7investing
@MattNachtrab
- The DOJ has all of the blinded data from the P2 trial. No one is hiding anything from this investigation and there should be no
Getting kind of tired of seeing the same "company misses quarterly expectations...stock sells off 15%" over and over right now.
Is anyone actually investing for the long-term any more?
Just in case anyone thinks it's easy running an investing service in the middle of a market selloff, I assure you that it is not.
But I've also never been more confident in what we are doing.
2022 will be a stockpicker's market. Now is the time to be a long-term investor.
I've spent quite a lot of time thinking about what's going on in the world and how it's impacting the stock market.
My ultimate conclusion is that innovation will win and that long-term investing still works.
$AMZN $MSFT $UPST
#CPI
#inflation
#stocks
Great answers & thank you for the excellent ideas in this thread.
I intended the question to show the tradeoff between risk & reward. You don't want to bet the farm here, since $1 million is a ton of money to have to pay back if your stock crashes.
I'd personally choose $AMZN.
Don't fall into the trap of thinking "I'm down 50%...now I need to double my money just to break even again."
The stock market doesn't care what your cost basis was. It's always forward looking.
Every day you should be invested in your favorite opportunities from this point on.
Patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease who received simufilam treatment continuously for two years had no decline in ADAS-Cog scores as a group.
Great news here for $SAVA 💪
$sava Patients with mild Alzheimer’s disease who received simufilam treatment continuously for two years (n=47) had no decline in ADAS-Cog scores (± 1.51 SE) as a group.
Patients with mild Alzheimer’s who received simufilam treatment non-continuously (n=40) declined 1 point on
Time for some stock sleuthing, with today's subject being The Trade Desk.🕵️♂️
Critics complain about $TTD's "generous stock-based compensation" not reflecting in its 40%+ adjusted EBITDA margins.
We know tech companies love paying SBC. But TTD's plan is different.
Here's why:
Today is my birthday.
I say that upfront, hoping it will make this very important post I'm about to make even more memorable for you.
Yesterday I wrote an article for
@7investing
about Rocket Lab $RKLB. I ran a Discounted Cash Flow on the company and ultimately estimated its
The punchline: Rocket Lab's stock $RKLB is worth $22.35 per share and has 435% potential upside.
The supporting evidence: A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, complete with all inputs and assumptions.
The reasoning: There's a lot of hype surrounding the space economy. This is an
If we use FinTwit correctly, we can have respectable disagreements about stocks.
The reason the market exists is bc someone is always buying what someone else is selling.
No need to turn discussions into "I'm right & you're wrong." It's OK to disagree & both sides emerge wiser.
The punchline: Rocket Lab's stock $RKLB is worth $22.35 per share and has 435% potential upside.
The supporting evidence: A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis, complete with all inputs and assumptions.
The reasoning: There's a lot of hype surrounding the space economy. This is an
Another positive new development:
"The MRI data suggest simufilam is not associated with treatment-emergent amyloid-related imaging abnormalities, or ARIA."
Looking like $SAVA's simufilam has a more attractive safety profile than $BIIB's approved drugs.
There is a race underway to treat Alzheimer’s Disease.
Here is a recap comparison of Cassava $SAVA's simufilam to the two other FDA-approved drugs available from Biogen $BIIB (Aduhelm and Leqembi).
And also Eli Lilly's $LLY drug that's in P3 trials (donanemab). 🧵
Examples of disruptive innovations that have happened "all at once":
- EVs
- Blockchains
- Autonomous Robots
- Gene Editing
- Space Economy
- Metaverse
- Quantum Computing
Years of dedicated research. But then the mass-market embraces them rapidly.
We call these S-Curves.
The votes are in, and Datadog is our winner!
I will now run $DDOG through my SaaS Lifetime Value framework & post my conclusions to Twitter.
If anyone has thoughts, opinions, or interesting data points related to this company, please post them below.
Which of the following companies would you like me to run the SaaS-o-Matic on next?
As investors, this will help us evaluate the underlying economics of these businesses.
And similar to $VEEV, I'll post my full analysis & conclusions here to Twitter.
$DDOG $ESTC $MDB $OKTA