If you liked today's reversal on my "1000 likes" threshold, then hit the like button below.
If I get more than 5000 likes to this tweet by Monday, I am going to crush entire markets across the globe next week. It will be like one of those bear orgies you have seen back in March.
As you already know if I short something it crashes immediately, even FED cant help.
So how many of you want me to crush Nasdaq 100.
Like this tweet if you want me to mutilate it.
Retweet if you dont.
If I get more than 1000 likes, I will spill bull's guts out.
If I get 10K likes to this tweet by memorial day weekend, I will rain down an ungodly firestorm upon markets, I will mutilate every stock with 4 letters, I will massacre entire robinhood top list, I will leave no unturned stone, I will f** them all up!
Once or twice a decade, a trader / investor has a chance to witness a life changing market move...
like 2001-2002 2008-2009 , 2020 etc
2008 changed mine.
We are about to see another one within weeks
Just so you know, CNBC is now running ads that claim Melvin closed its short position. Why would you spend money to convince public that Melvin closed its short position. If its closed, good for them. Why are they running ads
I can see it from 1000s miles away.... This is my favorite pattern I learned during tech burst 23 years ago ....
SP500 is forming a right shoulder -ish pattern that is similar to what $ARKK completed in late 2021 ...
Its projected target is 2500 with a potential to retrace
In early summer this year, I noticed $ARKK was forming a massive right shoulder, reminiscent of some networking or dot. com stocks from late 2000 dotcom burst.
ARKK plunged below the neckline yesterday , resolving its 6 month long misery
They are moving $30 trillion market with a few billion. Buying a few billion worth of near term calls, forcing dealers to buy stocks and index futures to hedge. Spread between bid/ask widens because of this massive one sided option market therefore VIX & VVIX spike
< So, what you're telling me, is that the music is about to stop, and we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism. >
Spread is now lower than minus 1%, breaking below the previous record low printed before dotcom crash .
2 options,
1- FED will soon start cutting rates and start an episode of hyperinflation, effectively ending the united states of America as we know it... Once hyperinflation
There has been a tectonic shift in market structure during the last few days, signaling a different type of bear market underway . This started in the middle of opex week last week and intensified last couple of days. If my early observations are correct, we are entering a proper
if I reach 55K by next week , I will give you one last call that can be life-changing . Sunday midnight, I will lock this account and only those inside will read it. That will be my jubilee
Beautiful bear market rally.
I turned bearish at SPX 4200 and I remain bearish.
We are in the slow section of the major leg to 3200 imo...
Acceleration comes below 3900
I have been bullish since ES 3800.
After 350 handles at 4160, I am no longer bullish, in fact I initiated some shorts on individual junk stocks last Friday.
While SPX may stay above 4K until Feb CPI, I don't see much upside from here.
If the central banks / governments choose to use their last dimes to delay the inevitable by saving incompetent garbage now, we may get a narrow-breadth rally with the help of 4 big tech stocks (MSFT AAPL GOOGL AMZN) for a week or two then the market will plunge into the
I have been talking about 70s stagflation for over a year now. It is finally here, even Crude oil is following the exact same script, boom and bust cycle.
People need to study 70s market to survive. This is the biggest wealth transfer event in 2 decades.
I believe tomorrows CPI will be manufactured to prevent a market crash , and it will be silently revised weeks later like they did with the last few CPI numbers.
Any bad number may trigger a delta hedging meltdown event into quadruple OPEX, wiping out nearly all vol funds across
The most expensive part of an electric car is its battery, which lasts about 8 years and costs about $20k to replace. Essentially a 30K to 40K electric car has a life expectancy of 8 to 10 years while a Toyota 4Runner can go 20 to 40 years. Get a fucking real car
Remember this during the next few months:
In bear markets ,
-good news are bad news,
-bad news are bad news,
-no news are bad news
-very bad news when the market is very oversold are good news
Shorting is a process, you use pops to add... Because tops are process, bottoms are events.
NQ is near 10 month high, I am up over 25% on my TSLA short already... Weak stocks lead, strong stocks lag on on the downside.
Today I started to short indices
This is the way...
It is one of life’s mysteries that i called every major and minor lows and highs of this once in a life time bear market , giving away free cash in the form of pure actionable alpha and still has less than a million follower. Fuck it
Soon after the quad-expiration, there is going to be a 3-sigma or 4-sigma move and it will start with a fake out maximizing the causalities. It will start at the exact time you think this tweet is obsolete.
this summer, I became a big believer that investing / trading from remote places with minimal technology exposure & away from all the bullshit in fintwit and media is enormously advantageous. Big money is made in big moves and big picture becomes clearer if u keep away from noise
This is a 10 year daily chart of $INSAX vs $SPX
INSAX is a fund that replicates insider buying
Up until mid-2021, the fund's performance had been slightly better than SPX or the same
Starting in mid-2021, INSAX decoupled from SPX and began to crater.
Today it is at Covid lows
Doctors, nurses and other healthcare workers who go out and fight this war on the front lines every single day, risking their own life and everything they have are the true heroic people we should never forget.
This is a type of bear market where;
Everyone bearish but collectively keeps calling a bottom and no long term holder sells share, never capitulates
Most of Zillow is still full of flippers trying to make 100% profit in a year while m. rates at 8% and no apparent buyers left
Chatbots are not AIs, they do not posses any intelligence whatsoever, they are recursive algorithms with data parsing and classifying abilities.
For example you can ask ChatGPT a simple arithmetic question like 2x2. It will first answer you 4. Then if you tell it the answer
Never forget this.
This video basically summarizes last 20 year's monetary policy in 30 sec.
It is the root cause for almost all evil you are seeing right now, from social unrest to income inequality to all sort of degeneration.
Megacap tech rally started as I expected...
Meanwhile 5 months of QT is gone in one week. Wont last long.
What comes after this will be quite unpleasant , so I am using the rally to position accordingly.
If the central banks / governments choose to use their last dimes to delay the inevitable by saving incompetent garbage now, we may get a narrow-breadth rally with the help of 4 big tech stocks (MSFT AAPL GOOGL AMZN) for a week or two then the market will plunge into the
If you gave me 5K likes last weekend, I would take SP500 to 2550 this week. For 2K likes, you got 150+ handles downside. I will ask next week again, make sure you do your best. It is up to you if you want to be rich.
If you liked today's reversal on my "1000 likes" threshold, then hit the like button below.
If I get more than 5000 likes to this tweet by Monday, I am going to crush entire markets across the globe next week. It will be like one of those bear orgies you have seen back in March.
Trading the markets from distance in silence since the beginning of the summer. This has been best year of my career so far but it is saddening to watch the greatest country in the world taken down by these unelected incompetent clowns at FED. Meltdown will likely climax this Oct
Turned bearish at 4800 at the begging of the year
Turned bullish at 4130 for a corrective rally on Mar 16
Turning bearish here
If you disagree, it is ok but dont expect me to take you serious UNLESS your track record is at least half of what I have
<BREAKING: U.S. Federal and state officials are assessing possible 'market manipulation' regarding banking shares, per Reuters citing a source.>
These buffoons just cant let it go. Let me remind you one thing: Moaning , whining and even banning short selling wont work.
On
As a cycle bear, my opinion on SIVB situation is completely different from many out there.
There is a baseless fear mongering going on, I think it will be a non event and unfortunately the market will use it to launch another short squeeze rally later
Today's banking sector is
FED now buys corporate debt. If FED worked like this in 2000 and 2008, Enron, Worldcom Lehman & Bear would still be around cooking books today. Ken Lay, Maddoff, Waksal, Kozlowski and many others would be running wild, fucking people out of money. Too bad MMT was invented so late
Last week when SPX closed at 4025, I said the market would take a huge dump this week, SPX cratered over 200 handles this week. The sell off was somewhat controlled and muted. Dip buyers are still active. There is absolutely no capitulation. Gonna get a lot uglier than I thought
Stock speculation (0DTE …etc) and Real estate speculation are now worse than 2021. Real inflation is over 15%. Crypto morons are back. SPX 4200 of 2023 is like SPX 6000 of 2021. Everything-bubble is getting worse despite 5% Fed rates.
1 year of QT and Fed hikes didn’t do a
I swing-trade, hold for few days to few weeks, long &short
My journey for the last 6 months:
-Bought Oct 2021 low at 4260, Sold 4622 Nov 2
-Short NQ at 16500 in early Jan 2022
-Turned short term bullish at 4135 on Mar 16
-Began to turn bearish on March 25
Below are the proofs
SP500 is down 360 handles in 11 days, VIX below 30, EPC is 0.59.
There is absolutely no fear at all. All you hear is bottom bottom bottom. This type of extended but steady selling usually ends with a violent waterfall or selling climax
Covid-19 must be the most intelligent virus ever, it killed no politician, policy maker , FED member or any other influential politician or economist. Strange.
If you think 1300 SPX point loss was a bear market bottom, just wait until Nasdaq pulls a Cathie Wood on you...
Entire decade-long Nasdaq parabola will eventually be erased before you see a real bottom
Unfortunately , this is still an infant geyser, Slo mo train wreck . I am sorry to say this and I really dont want to look like cheer-leading it (I know what some of you long term bulls think of me now) but I hope I saved a few good souls in recent weeks.
MOVE index (Volatility for Treasuries) at the decade high, diverging from $VIX.
MOVE usually leads VIX
A clear break below 3600 can trigger a Vol event
#volmagedon
#octofist
Let me tell you something about $TSLA if you are into sword catching
Only way $TSLA can bounce is through exhaustion. It is in a selling climax at the moment but no exhaustion yet.
My ideal scenario is, a +500M volume day followed by a massive gap down.
I watched tape for an hour today, there is something that reminds me Feb 20. Remember that day in Feb when ES dived 50 handles intraday then came back quickly and I turned full bearish after the close? I said it was "a bidless market" behavior?
Today felt similar.
The more I express my bullish outlook for ST/IT bear market rally, the more rapidly I am losing followers. Which is all fine.
This is coming from the person who called the bull market top to the day on Dec 28 and stayed bearish most of the time, they must think I lost my marbles
So long NYC. Moved in 1998 to get my PhD while working as a software eng, I was only 20. Opened my first firm in 2004. Traded through 3 bubbles 3 bear markets, raised a family. 23 years like a movie. Aloha
All bulls markets of the last two decades started with this breadth trust which comes no later than 3 months after the low
Its been 8 long months since Oct 2022 low, nothing happened.
In fact the recent push from March 2023 low came on declining breadth.
$SPX $SPY
CPI must literally crash for FED to bend over again ...
even after FED bends over, SPX will go down for months as it is now not only about inflation but earnings too
Therefore any possible rally on slight changes in inflation will not last
I have been bullish since ES 3800.
After 350 handles at 4160, I am no longer bullish, in fact I initiated some shorts on individual junk stocks last Friday.
While SPX may stay above 4K until Feb CPI, I don't see much upside from here.
The market looks ugly at the moment but this may be deceiving for the short term direction which may be bullish early in 2023
However take a note of all the stocks that are getting pounded today and at the beginning of the year, these stocks will suck big time throughout 2023
My first bear market was dotcom burst. I paid huge tuition to learn invaluable lessons those years. Got wiped out two times even after being a bear in a bear market. My 2nd was 2008 GFC, I shined. It changed my life, my career and everything else related
Two weeks ago under 3800, SPX looked ugly and I was bullish.
The index is now breaking out to the upside which is bullish for ST.
Once the rally is over in a few weeks/days, the bear market should resume.
The market looks ugly at the moment but this may be deceiving for the short term direction which may be bullish early in 2023
However take a note of all the stocks that are getting pounded today and at the beginning of the year, these stocks will suck big time throughout 2023
If ES sinks below 3416 in RTH session tomorrow, it will trigger a delta hedging melt down with dealer algorithms kick in full force. The exact same shit you have seen on the upside, but opposite direction. Of course this one will be much faster as fear is stronger than greed
There is only one stock left that is holding the entire market, that is why a few WS firms upgraded it today ( to unload on retail because they know whats coming next) its name is AAPL. Once this stock is gone, house of cards will collapse. Watch it closely
As soon as SPX down 1%, Bill “ Bail me out” Ackman whining again
Remember this slimy PoS bought regional banks after the initial rout in late March
He wants FED to cut rates now but he never questions why banks still offer low rates for customer deposits which is the main
The summer rally which I called at 3640 was about 700 handles
From low 4300 where I called a ST top to today's low, was exactly 450 handles drop
Now NYSE McO -101, % of SPX stocks <20DMA below 5%
Things are about to get volatile next few days then bear market rally again
2 months ago, I originally projected that we would have an intermediate term low in October and a multi-week rally into the new year.
Today's rally , while it looks bullish at the moment, can completely change this scenario because I don't like the way the low was printed today
My bullshit detector went off after hours on $NVDA... If we are going get a recession, no matter what they smoke right now, this stock will be smoked by minimum 50% or more , similar to crypto BS episode
CTAs are now 100% long:
Their beautiful strategy in 2022 had been : " Playfully bearish at market bottoms, arrogantly bullish at market tops"
We shall see how this one plays out
The most powerful moves start after pattern failure...
We are about to see one, in the biggest market of the world; bonds.
In a few days, I think this pattern will fail and a deflationary bond rally starts with stocks going bidless
The thing is tomorrow is torturous Thursday, next day is free fall Friday and the following trading day is margin call Monday… of course not gonna be a straight line